--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  rebels-with-a-cause.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  26 May 2022, 20:57:42

. do "rebels-with-a-cause.do"

. ******************************************************************************
> **
. * Rebels with a Cause: Does Ideology Make Armed Conflicts Longer and Bloodier?
>  *
. ******************************************************************************
> **
. 
. * Replication Dataset DOI: awaiting assignment... 
. * Authors: Matthias Basedau (matthias.basedau@giga-hamburg.de), Moran Deitch (
> moran.deitch@biu.ac.il), Ariel Zellman (ariel.zellman@biu.ac.il)
. 
. *****************************************
. * Models Appearing in Appendix in Order *
. *****************************************
.  
. ******************
. * Primary Models *
. ******************
. 
. **********************************
. * SET DATA AS SURVIVAL-TIME DATA *
. **********************************
. 
. stset year1 if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, failure(ep_end==1) id(dyad_id_rev) origi
> n(time start_year_1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyad_id_rev
     failure event:  ep_end == 1
obs. time interval:  (year1[_n-1], year1]
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time start_year_1
            if exp:  obsolete_ucdp_data==0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2610  total observations
         34  ignored at outset because of -if <exp>-
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2576  observations remaining, representing
        507  subjects
        433  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
   3381.196  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =        70

. 
. **********************************************************************
. * Table A2. “Risk” of Armed Conflict Termination – Dyadic, 1950-2017 *
. **********************************************************************
. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efro
> n vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =      100.32
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1774.7439             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4926103   .1109163    -4.44   0.000    -.7100022   -.2752184
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1262401   .1096378    -1.15   0.250    -.3411262     .088646
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.0954409   .2266592    -0.42   0.674    -.5396847    .3488029
  incomp_terr |  -.0518145   .1134092    -0.46   0.648    -.2740926    .1704635
intensity_l~l |  -.3358355   .1654681    -2.03   0.042    -.6601471    -.011524
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0120021   .0097712    -1.23   0.219    -.0311534    .0071491
 vdem_rescale |  -.0158141   .0145687    -1.09   0.278    -.0443681      .01274
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0018469   .0026673    -0.69   0.489    -.0070748    .0033809
 active_dyads |  -.8448405   .0985487    -8.57   0.000    -1.037992   -.6516887
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_
> war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =      118.25
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1769.9506             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4692452   .1108914    -4.23   0.000    -.6865883    -.251902
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1350048   .1061767    -1.27   0.204    -.3431073    .0730977
rebel_ext_m~t |   -.159379   .2335614    -0.68   0.495    -.6171508    .2983929
  incomp_terr |   -.010732   .1097996    -0.10   0.922    -.2259352    .2044712
intensity_l~l |  -.3052823   .1661512    -1.84   0.066    -.6309326    .0203679
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0193415   .0098846    -1.96   0.050    -.0387149    .0000319
 vdem_rescale |  -.0180514   .0143193    -1.26   0.207    -.0461166    .0100139
vdem_rescal~q |   .0000303   .0027175     0.01   0.991    -.0052959    .0053565
 active_dyads |  -.8622605   .0978302    -8.81   0.000    -1.054004   -.6705167
post_cold_war |   .3601365   .1157134     3.11   0.002     .1333424    .5869306
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_su
> pport incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq ac
> tive_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      123.14
Log pseudolikelihood =    -1768.176             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .2001064   .2300803     0.87   0.384    -.2508426    .6510554
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4752771   .1864642    -2.55   0.011    -.8407403    -.109814
incomp_rel_~f |  -.3601556   .1701959    -2.12   0.034    -.6937334   -.0265777
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |  -.0068865   .2320662    -0.03   0.976    -.4617278    .4479549
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .3961102   .2142146     1.85   0.064    -.0237427    .8159632
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2029553   .2398998    -0.85   0.398    -.6731503    .2672397
  incomp_terr |  -.0148313   .1137734    -0.13   0.896    -.2378231    .2081605
intensity_l~l |  -.3145585   .1673019    -1.88   0.060    -.6424642    .0133472
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0210664    .009943    -2.12   0.034    -.0405543   -.0015784
 vdem_rescale |  -.0180035   .0142845    -1.26   0.208    -.0460007    .0099936
vdem_rescal~q |  -4.61e-06   .0027697    -0.00   0.999    -.0054331    .0054238
 active_dyads |  -.8667259   .0980278    -8.84   0.000    -1.058857   -.6745949
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efro
> n vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =      102.75
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1774.0844             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.4467059   .1190937    -3.75   0.000    -.6801252   -.2132866
 Theological  |  -.6853447    .211814    -3.24   0.001    -1.100492   -.2701969
        Both  |  -.5217829   .1717307    -3.04   0.002    -.8583688   -.1851969
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1040234   .1130497    -0.92   0.357    -.3255967    .1175499
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1233517   .2302333    -0.54   0.592    -.5746007    .3278973
  incomp_terr |  -.0759433   .1166251    -0.65   0.515    -.3045243    .1526376
intensity_l~l |  -.3317016   .1658101    -2.00   0.045    -.6566835   -.0067197
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0102425    .009995    -1.02   0.305    -.0298325    .0093474
 vdem_rescale |  -.0191495   .0151198    -1.27   0.205    -.0487837    .0104847
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0023862   .0028343    -0.84   0.400    -.0079414     .003169
 active_dyads |  -.8360303   .0989455    -8.45   0.000     -1.02996   -.6421007
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_
> war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      128.81
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1767.1868             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.3533038   .1208393    -2.92   0.003    -.5901446   -.1164631
 Theological  |  -.8395214   .2121645    -3.96   0.000    -1.255356   -.4236866
        Both  |  -.5748762   .1839235    -3.13   0.002    -.9353596   -.2143927
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0826714    .110125    -0.75   0.453    -.2985125    .1331697
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2467406   .2439102    -1.01   0.312    -.7247958    .2313146
  incomp_terr |   -.054429   .1115091    -0.49   0.625    -.2729827    .1641248
intensity_l~l |  -.2880094   .1668417    -1.73   0.084     -.615013    .0389943
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0171283   .0100802    -1.70   0.089    -.0368851    .0026285
 vdem_rescale |  -.0256081   .0150439    -1.70   0.089    -.0550936    .0038774
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0005221   .0028879    -0.18   0.857    -.0061822     .005138
 active_dyads |  -.8477654   .0979484    -8.66   0.000    -1.039741     -.65579
post_cold_war |   .4573475   .1210124     3.78   0.000     .2201676    .6945275
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_supp
> ort incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq acti
> ve_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(16)    =      142.92
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1759.8382             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .1485252   .2298066     0.65   0.518    -.3018875    .5989379
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.5269205   .1921479    -2.74   0.006    -.9035235   -.1503175
 Theological  |   .1576222   .8613513     0.18   0.855    -1.530595     1.84584
        Both  |   -.041155   .2828486    -0.15   0.884     -.595528     .513218
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.3492305   .1713593    -2.04   0.042    -.6850885   -.0133725
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |   .3333308   .2384663     1.40   0.162    -.1340545     .800716
           1 #|
 Theological  |  -1.013216   .8852351    -1.14   0.252    -2.748245    .7218132
      1#Both  |   -.824578   .4107028    -2.01   0.045    -1.629541   -.0196154
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .5111704   .2176962     2.35   0.019     .0844936    .9378471
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3392098   .2631787    -1.29   0.197    -.8550305    .1766109
  incomp_terr |   -.053576   .1128852    -0.47   0.635    -.2748269    .1676749
intensity_l~l |   -.334885   .1722845    -1.94   0.052    -.6725565    .0027864
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0187714   .0099737    -1.88   0.060    -.0383196    .0007767
 vdem_rescale |  -.0259536    .015315    -1.69   0.090    -.0559703    .0040632
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0008015   .0029234    -0.27   0.784    -.0065314    .0049283
 active_dyads |  -.8575852   .0974215    -8.80   0.000    -1.048528   -.6666426
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. ***********************************************************************
. * Table A3. “Risk” of Armed Conflict Termination – Monadic, 1950-2017 *
. ***********************************************************************
. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robu
> st) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       99.21
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1771.3526             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.5666533   .1114903    -5.08   0.000    -.7851702   -.3481363
    rel_aff01 |   .2655133   .1742418     1.52   0.128    -.0759944    .6070209
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1095663   .2213369    -0.50   0.621    -.5433787    .3242461
  incomp_terr |  -.3271894   .1178539    -2.78   0.005    -.5581789      -.0962
intensity_l~l |  -.3364834   .1642684    -2.05   0.041    -.6584435   -.0145233
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0074305   .0100071    -0.74   0.458    -.0270441    .0121831
 vdem_rescale |  -.0317388   .0148954    -2.13   0.033    -.0609333   -.0025444
vdem_rescal~q |   -.002958   .0026474    -1.12   0.264    -.0081469    .0022308
 active_dyads |  -.8378611   .0974796    -8.60   0.000    -1.028918   -.6468045
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war, nohr 
> efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =      123.22
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1765.2231             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |   -.581406   .1093366    -5.32   0.000    -.7957017   -.3671103
    rel_aff01 |   .2324609   .1727792     1.35   0.178    -.1061801    .5711019
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1807399   .2282946    -0.79   0.429    -.6281892    .2667094
  incomp_terr |  -.2774566   .1158076    -2.40   0.017    -.5044353   -.0504779
intensity_l~l |   -.306602   .1651944    -1.86   0.063    -.6303771    .0171731
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0154422   .0101539    -1.52   0.128    -.0353434     .004459
 vdem_rescale |  -.0330889   .0141603    -2.34   0.019    -.0608426   -.0053352
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0006426   .0026638    -0.24   0.809    -.0058636    .0045783
 active_dyads |  -.8609638   .0969032    -8.88   0.000    -1.050891    -.671037
post_cold_war |   .4100368   .1163042     3.53   0.000     .1820848    .6379888
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_ideology c.rel_aff01) rebel_ext_mil_support inco
> mp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads
> , nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      130.04
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1762.9236             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |    .898241   .3475645     2.58   0.010     .2170272    1.579455
claim_ideol~y |  -.3433909   .1744831    -1.97   0.049    -.6853715   -.0014103
    rel_aff01 |   .4105485   .2243986     1.83   0.067    -.0292646    .8503617
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.3818392    .210851    -1.81   0.070    -.7950996    .0314211
              |
post_cold_war#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |  -.3308396   .3533286    -0.94   0.349    -1.023351    .3616717
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1716908   .2333558    -0.74   0.462    -.6290596    .2856781
  incomp_terr |  -.2434831   .1166653    -2.09   0.037    -.4721429   -.0148234
intensity_l~l |  -.3274701   .1653504    -1.98   0.048    -.6515509   -.0033893
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0162444   .0099987    -1.62   0.104    -.0358416    .0033527
 vdem_rescale |  -.0330134   .0140988    -2.34   0.019    -.0606466   -.0053802
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0002475    .002669    -0.09   0.926    -.0054786    .0049835
 active_dyads |  -.8671331    .097272    -8.91   0.000    -1.057783   -.6764834
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =      114.58
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1763.1269             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.7610558   .1380086    -5.51   0.000    -1.031548   -.4905638
 claim_libdem |  -.4402907     .15733    -2.80   0.005    -.7486518   -.1319296
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .4048742   .1422312     2.85   0.004     .1261062    .6836423
Christian-~l  |   .2150419    .342843     0.63   0.531    -.4569182    .8870019
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .0772299   .1430441     0.54   0.589    -.2031314    .3575912
Muslim-The~l  |  -.4586832   .1945739    -2.36   0.018    -.8400411   -.0773253
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2526366   .2415014    -1.05   0.296    -.7259708    .2206975
  incomp_terr |  -.2825357   .1161563    -2.43   0.015    -.5101978   -.0548735
intensity_l~l |  -.3821835   .1721317    -2.22   0.026    -.7195555   -.0448115
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0115177   .0103128    -1.12   0.264    -.0317304    .0086951
 vdem_rescale |  -.0273463   .0145396    -1.88   0.060    -.0558434    .0011509
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0030302    .002581    -1.17   0.240    -.0080889    .0020284
 active_dyads |  -.8360816    .099016    -8.44   0.000    -1.030149   -.6420138
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads post_cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(14)    =      132.34
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1757.4431             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.6482625   .1416353    -4.58   0.000    -.9258626   -.3706623
 claim_libdem |  -.4611113   .1544588    -2.99   0.003     -.763845   -.1583776
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .4010611   .1393505     2.88   0.004     .1279392     .674183
Christian-~l  |   .0990057    .331668     0.30   0.765    -.5510517     .749063
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .0348835   .1422295     0.25   0.806    -.2438811    .3136482
Muslim-The~l  |  -.6077764   .2031389    -2.99   0.003    -1.005921   -.2096314
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3596656   .2533262    -1.42   0.156    -.8561758    .1368445
  incomp_terr |  -.2212757   .1153701    -1.92   0.055    -.4473971    .0048456
intensity_l~l |  -.3553711   .1735705    -2.05   0.041     -.695563   -.0151791
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0187972   .0104391    -1.80   0.072    -.0392575    .0016631
 vdem_rescale |  -.0292185   .0137267    -2.13   0.033    -.0561225   -.0023146
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0007035   .0026476    -0.27   0.790    -.0058928    .0044858
 active_dyads |  -.8502998   .0983415    -8.65   0.000    -1.043046   -.6575541
post_cold_war |   .4219518   .1253885     3.37   0.001     .1761949    .6677086
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_communist c.claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_
> claim_type) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vde
> m_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep
> _no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(20)    =      149.31
Log pseudolikelihood =    -1751.903             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .7180281   .2456562     2.92   0.003     .2365507    1.199505
claim_commu~t |  -.6347868   .1981711    -3.20   0.001    -1.023195   -.2463785
 claim_libdem |  -.5505116   .2691152    -2.05   0.041    -1.077968   -.0230555
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .5080259    .217541     2.34   0.020     .0816534    .9343984
Christian-~l  |   .5047962   .8861505     0.57   0.569    -1.232027    2.241619
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .2355592   .2092053     1.13   0.260    -.1744757     .645594
Muslim-The~l  |   .4693194   .3285956     1.43   0.153    -.1747162    1.113355
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |  -.0205775   .2644803    -0.08   0.938    -.5389493    .4977942
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |   .1349569   .3235918     0.42   0.677    -.4992714    .7691852
              |
post_cold_war#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |  -.2598766   .2972668    -0.87   0.382    -.8425088    .3227556
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |  -.6189076   .8602856    -0.72   0.472    -2.305036    1.067221
              |
post_cold_war#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.4123809   .3011376    -1.37   0.171      -1.0026     .177838
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -1.435927    .429793    -3.34   0.001    -2.278306   -.5935486
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3475929   .2643613    -1.31   0.189    -.8657315    .1705456
  incomp_terr |  -.2245212    .118211    -1.90   0.058    -.4562105    .0071681
intensity_l~l |  -.3577555   .1770062    -2.02   0.043    -.7046813   -.0108297
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0168114   .0105839    -1.59   0.112    -.0375555    .0039327
 vdem_rescale |  -.0312306    .014469    -2.16   0.031    -.0595894   -.0028719
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0014031   .0027868    -0.50   0.615    -.0068651    .0040589
 active_dyads |  -.8493477   .0972355    -8.73   0.000    -1.039926   -.6587697
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ********
. * Table A2-HR. Risk of Armed Conflict Termination – Dyadic, 1950-2017, Hazard 
> Ratios *
. ******************************************************************************
> ********
. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, efron vce
> (robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =      100.32
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1774.7439             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .6110293   .0677731    -4.44   0.000     .4916431    .7594062
incomp_rel_~f |   .8814032   .0966351    -1.15   0.250     .7109692    1.092694
rebel_ext_m~t |   .9089721   .2060269    -0.42   0.674      .582932     1.41737
  incomp_terr |    .949505   .1076826    -0.46   0.648     .7602617    1.185854
intensity_l~l |   .7147406   .1182668    -2.03   0.042     .5167753    .9885421
 side_a_lnGDP |   .9880696   .0096546    -1.23   0.219     .9693269    1.007175
 vdem_rescale |   .9843103   .0143401    -1.09   0.278     .9566017    1.012822
vdem_rescal~q |   .9981548   .0026624    -0.69   0.489     .9929502    1.003387
 active_dyads |   .4296259   .0423391    -8.57   0.000      .354165     .521165
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_
> war, efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =      118.25
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1769.9506             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .6254742   .0693597    -4.23   0.000     .5032902    .7773209
incomp_rel_~f |   .8737117   .0927678    -1.27   0.204     .7095621    1.075836
rebel_ext_m~t |   .8526732   .1991515    -0.68   0.495     .5394793    1.347691
  incomp_terr |   .9893254   .1086275    -0.10   0.922     .7977698    1.226876
intensity_l~l |   .7369153   .1224393    -1.84   0.066     .5320953    1.020577
 side_a_lnGDP |   .9808444   .0096952    -1.96   0.050     .9620249    1.000032
 vdem_rescale |   .9821106   .0140631    -1.26   0.207     .9549306    1.010064
vdem_rescal~q |    1.00003   .0027176     0.01   0.991     .9947181    1.005371
 active_dyads |   .4222066   .0413046    -8.81   0.000     .3485393    .5114442
post_cold_war |   1.433525   .1658781     3.11   0.002     1.142641     1.79846
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_su
> pport incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq ac
> tive_dyads, efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      123.14
Log pseudolikelihood =    -1768.176             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   1.221533   .2810506     0.87   0.384     .7781448    1.917564
incomp_ideo~l |   .6217127   .1159272    -2.55   0.011      .431391    .8960008
incomp_rel_~f |   .6975678   .1187232    -2.12   0.034      .499707    .9737724
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |   .9931372   .2304736    -0.03   0.976     .6301938    1.565108
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   1.486033     .31833     1.85   0.064      .976537    2.261353
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   .8163147   .1958338    -0.85   0.398     .5100991    1.306354
  incomp_terr |   .9852782   .1120985    -0.13   0.896     .7883421    1.231411
intensity_l~l |   .7301112    .122149    -1.88   0.060     .5259947    1.013437
 side_a_lnGDP |    .979154   .0097357    -2.12   0.034      .960257    .9984228
 vdem_rescale |   .9821576   .0140297    -1.26   0.208     .9550413    1.010044
vdem_rescal~q |   .9999954   .0027697    -0.00   0.999     .9945817    1.005439
 active_dyads |   .4203255   .0412036    -8.84   0.000     .3468521    .5093627
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, efron vce
> (robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =      102.75
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1774.0844             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |    .639732    .076188    -3.75   0.000     .5065536    .8079246
 Theological  |   .5039165   .1067366    -3.24   0.001     .3327072    .7632292
        Both  |   .5934616   .1019156    -3.04   0.002     .4238529    .8309406
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .9012042   .1018809    -0.92   0.357     .7220963    1.124738
rebel_ext_m~t |   .8839527   .2035153    -0.54   0.592     .5629296    1.388046
  incomp_terr |   .9268687   .1080961    -0.65   0.515     .7374741    1.164903
intensity_l~l |   .7177014   .1190022    -2.00   0.045     .5185683    .9933028
 side_a_lnGDP |   .9898097   .0098932    -1.02   0.305     .9706081    1.009391
 vdem_rescale |   .9810327    .014833    -1.27   0.205     .9523871     1.01054
vdem_rescal~q |   .9976166   .0028276    -0.84   0.400       .99209    1.003174
 active_dyads |   .4334277   .0428857    -8.45   0.000     .3570213    .5261859
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_
> war, efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      128.81
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1767.1868             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .7023637   .0848732    -2.92   0.003     .5542471    .8900629
 Theological  |   .4319172   .0916375    -3.96   0.000     .2849743     .654629
        Both  |   .5627746   .1035075    -3.13   0.002     .3924447    .8070314
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .9206536    .101387    -0.75   0.453      .741921    1.142444
rebel_ext_m~t |   .7813434   .1905776    -1.01   0.312     .4844235    1.260256
  incomp_terr |   .9470258    .105602    -0.49   0.625     .7611059    1.178361
intensity_l~l |   .7497546   .1250903    -1.73   0.084     .5406339    1.039765
 side_a_lnGDP |   .9830176    .009909    -1.70   0.089     .9637869    1.002632
 vdem_rescale |    .974717   .0146635    -1.70   0.089     .9463966    1.003885
vdem_rescal~q |    .999478   .0028864    -0.18   0.857     .9938369    1.005151
 active_dyads |   .4283711   .0419583    -8.66   0.000     .3535463    .5190319
post_cold_war |   1.579878   .1911848     3.78   0.000     1.246286    2.002763
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_supp
> ort incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq acti
> ve_dyads, efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(16)    =      142.92
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1759.8382             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   1.160122   .2666037     0.65   0.518     .7394212    1.820185
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .5904204    .113448    -2.74   0.006     .4051396    .8604347
 Theological  |   1.170724   1.008404     0.18   0.855     .2164068    6.333416
        Both  |   .9596804   .2714442    -0.15   0.884     .5512714    1.670659
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .7052306   .1208478    -2.04   0.042     .5040456    .9867165
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |   1.395609   .3328056     1.40   0.162     .8745424    2.227135
           1 #|
 Theological  |   .3630496   .3213843    -1.14   0.252     .0640402    2.058162
      1#Both  |     .43842   .1800603    -2.01   0.045     .1960196    .9805757
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   1.667241   .3629521     2.35   0.019     1.088166    2.554476
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |    .712333   .1874708    -1.29   0.197     .4252702    1.193167
  incomp_terr |   .9478339   .1069964    -0.47   0.635     .7597036    1.182552
intensity_l~l |   .7154203   .1232558    -1.94   0.052     .5104021     1.00279
 side_a_lnGDP |   .9814037   .0097882    -1.88   0.060     .9624053    1.000777
 vdem_rescale |   .9743803   .0149226    -1.69   0.090     .9455672    1.004071
vdem_rescal~q |   .9991988   .0029211    -0.27   0.784     .9934899     1.00494
 active_dyads |   .4241852   .0413247    -8.80   0.000     .3504533    .5134295
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *********
. * Table A3-HR. Risk of Armed Conflict Termination - Monadic, 1950-2017, Hazard
>  Ratios *
. ******************************************************************************
> *********
. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, efron vce(robust) n
> olog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       99.21
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1771.3526             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |   .5674213    .063262    -5.08   0.000     .4560421    .7060026
    rel_aff01 |     1.3041   .2272287     1.52   0.128     .9268214    1.834957
rebel_ext_m~t |   .8962227   .1983672    -0.50   0.621     .5807826    1.382988
  incomp_terr |   .7209472   .0849664    -2.78   0.005     .5722503    .9082823
intensity_l~l |   .7142778   .1173332    -2.05   0.041     .5176565    .9855817
 side_a_lnGDP |   .9925971    .009933    -0.74   0.458     .9733184    1.012258
 vdem_rescale |   .9687596   .0144301    -2.13   0.033      .940886    .9974589
vdem_rescal~q |   .9970463   .0026396    -1.12   0.264     .9918862    1.002233
 active_dyads |   .4326349   .0421731    -8.60   0.000     .3573936    .5237166
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war, efron
>  vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =      123.22
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1765.2231             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |   .5591117   .0611314    -5.32   0.000     .4512645    .6927333
    rel_aff01 |   1.261701   .2179957     1.35   0.178     .8992627    1.770217
rebel_ext_m~t |   .8346524   .1905467    -0.79   0.429     .5335571    1.305661
  incomp_terr |   .7577084   .0877484    -2.40   0.017     .6038465    .9507749
intensity_l~l |   .7359434   .1215737    -1.86   0.063      .532391    1.017321
 side_a_lnGDP |   .9846764   .0099983    -1.52   0.128     .9652738    1.004469
 vdem_rescale |   .9674525   .0136994    -2.34   0.019     .9409713     .994679
vdem_rescal~q |   .9993576   .0026621    -0.24   0.809     .9941536    1.004589
 active_dyads |   .4227545   .0409663    -8.88   0.000     .3496263    .5111782
post_cold_war |   1.506873   .1752556     3.53   0.000     1.199716     1.89267
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_ideology c.rel_aff01) rebel_ext_mil_support inco
> mp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads
> , efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      130.04
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1762.9236             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   2.455281   .8533682     2.58   0.010     1.242378     4.85231
claim_ideol~y |   .7093609   .1237715    -1.97   0.049      .503903    .9985907
    rel_aff01 |   1.507645   .3383133     1.83   0.067     .9711594    2.340493
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |   .6826048   .1439279    -1.81   0.070     .4515363     1.03192
              |
post_cold_war#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |   .7183203   .2538031    -0.94   0.349     .3593886    1.435728
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   .8422396   .1965415    -0.74   0.462     .5330929    1.330664
  incomp_terr |   .7838927   .0914531    -2.09   0.037     .6236644    .9852859
intensity_l~l |   .7207448   .1191754    -1.98   0.048     .5212368    .9966165
 side_a_lnGDP |   .9838868   .0098376    -1.62   0.104     .9647931    1.003358
 vdem_rescale |   .9675256    .013641    -2.34   0.019     .9411558    .9946342
vdem_rescal~q |   .9997525   .0026683    -0.09   0.926     .9945364    1.004996
 active_dyads |   .4201544   .0408693    -8.91   0.000     .3472248    .5084017
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads, efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =      114.58
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1763.1269             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |   .4671729   .0644739    -5.51   0.000     .3564548    .6122811
 claim_libdem |   .6438492   .1012968    -2.80   0.005     .4730038    .8764027
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.499114   .2132208     2.85   0.004     1.134403     1.98108
Christian-~l  |   1.239914   .4250958     0.63   0.531     .6332322     2.42784
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |    1.08029   .1545292     0.54   0.589      .816171    1.429881
Muslim-The~l  |   .6321154   .1229932    -2.36   0.018     .4316928    .9255887
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   .7767501   .1875863    -1.05   0.296     .4838546    1.246946
  incomp_terr |   .7538698   .0875667    -2.43   0.015     .6003768    .9466049
intensity_l~l |   .6823698   .1174575    -2.22   0.026     .4869687    .9561777
 side_a_lnGDP |   .9885484   .0101947    -1.12   0.264     .9687677    1.008733
 vdem_rescale |   .9730242   .0141474    -1.88   0.060     .9456872    1.001152
vdem_rescal~q |   .9969743   .0025732    -1.17   0.240     .9919437     1.00203
 active_dyads |   .4334055   .0429141    -8.44   0.000     .3569536    .5262316
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads post_cold_war, efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(14)    =      132.34
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1757.4431             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |   .5229536   .0740687    -4.58   0.000     .3961895     .690277
 claim_libdem |   .6305825    .097399    -2.99   0.003     .4658717    .8535275
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.493408   .2081072     2.88   0.004     1.136484    1.962429
Christian-~l  |   1.104073   .3661855     0.30   0.765     .5763433    2.115017
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   1.035499   .1472785     0.25   0.806     .7835808    1.368408
Muslim-The~l  |   .5445604   .1106214    -2.99   0.003     .3657075     .810883
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   .6979096   .1767988    -1.42   0.156     .4247834     1.14665
  incomp_terr |   .8014956   .0924687    -1.92   0.055       .63929    1.004857
intensity_l~l |   .7009133   .1216579    -2.05   0.041     .4987935    .9849355
 side_a_lnGDP |   .9813784   .0102447    -1.80   0.072     .9615031    1.001665
 vdem_rescale |   .9712042   .0133315    -2.13   0.033     .9454234     .997688
vdem_rescal~q |   .9992967   .0026458    -0.27   0.790     .9941245    1.004496
 active_dyads |   .4272868     .04202    -8.65   0.000     .3523799     .518117
post_cold_war |   1.524935   .1912092     3.37   0.001     1.192671    1.949765
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_communist c.claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_
> claim_type) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vde
> m_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(20)    =      149.31
Log pseudolikelihood =    -1751.903             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   2.050386   .5036901     2.92   0.003     1.266872    3.318475
claim_commu~t |   .5300485   .1050403    -3.20   0.001     .3594446    .7816263
 claim_libdem |   .5766547   .1551865    -2.05   0.041     .3402864    .9772083
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.662007   .3615546     2.34   0.020      1.08508    2.545681
Christian-~l  |   1.656648   1.468039     0.57   0.569     .2917008    9.408553
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   1.265616   .2647736     1.13   0.260     .8398972     1.90712
Muslim-The~l  |   1.598906   .5253934     1.43   0.153     .8396953    3.044556
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |   .9796327   .2590935    -0.08   0.938     .5833609    1.645089
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |   1.144487   .3703468     0.42   0.677     .6069727    2.158007
              |
post_cold_war#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |   .7711467   .2292363    -0.87   0.382     .4306288    1.380928
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |   .5385324   .4632917    -0.72   0.472     .0997552    2.907289
              |
post_cold_war#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .6620721   .1993748    -1.37   0.171     .3669243    1.194632
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |   .2378946   .1022455    -3.34   0.001     .1024576    .5523637
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   .7063864   .1867412    -1.31   0.189     .4207437    1.185952
  incomp_terr |   .7988986   .0944386    -1.90   0.058     .6336805    1.007194
intensity_l~l |    .699244   .1237705    -2.02   0.043     .4942661    .9892287
 side_a_lnGDP |   .9833291   .0104075    -1.59   0.112      .963141     1.00394
 vdem_rescale |    .969252   .0140241    -2.16   0.031     .9421513    .9971322
vdem_rescal~q |   .9985979   .0027829    -0.50   0.615     .9931584    1.004067
 active_dyads |   .4276938    .041587    -8.73   0.000     .3534809    .5174876
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. **************************
. * SET DATA AS PANEL DATA *
. **************************
. 
. xtset dyad_id_rev year
       panel variable:  dyad_id_rev (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2017, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *************
. * Table A4. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Any Ideological Incompatibili
> ty - Dyadic *
. ******************************************************************************
> *************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year
>  if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(74)     =     403.18
Log pseudolikelihood  = -836.76728              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .6628711   .4312095     1.54   0.124    -.1822841    1.508026
incomp_rel_~f |   .7226606   .3626506     1.99   0.046     .0118784    1.433443
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.492242   .7982417     3.12   0.002     .9277174    4.056767
  incomp_terr |   -1.03845   .4489483    -2.31   0.021    -1.918372   -.1585275
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0593705   .0323385    -1.84   0.066    -.1227527    .0040117
 vdem_rescale |  -.0357355   .0549708    -0.65   0.516    -.1434763    .0720054
vdem_rescal~q |   .0069122   .0080016     0.86   0.388    -.0087707    .0225951
 active_dyads |   .1122504   .1320892     0.85   0.395    -.1466397    .3711405
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.212863   1.313903    -0.92   0.356    -3.788065    1.362339
        1952  |  -1.469082   1.450413    -1.01   0.311     -4.31184    1.373675
        1953  |   .1953886   1.434186     0.14   0.892    -2.615564    3.006341
        1954  |  -2.982661   1.565946    -1.90   0.057    -6.051859    .0865374
        1955  |  -1.236672   2.124478    -0.58   0.560    -5.400573    2.927229
        1956  |   -2.23519   2.285108    -0.98   0.328     -6.71392    2.243539
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.409834    1.86268    -0.76   0.449    -5.060619    2.240951
        1959  |  -2.229697   1.984104    -1.12   0.261    -6.118468    1.659075
        1960  |  -3.073757   1.651947    -1.86   0.063    -6.311514    .1640006
        1961  |  -.8503122   1.565958    -0.54   0.587    -3.919533    2.218908
        1962  |   -.297504   1.581518    -0.19   0.851    -3.397223    2.802215
        1963  |  -.3435954    1.55635    -0.22   0.825    -3.393985    2.706794
        1964  |  -1.102851   1.396787    -0.79   0.430    -3.840504    1.634801
        1965  |  -1.307658   1.432212    -0.91   0.361    -4.114742    1.499426
        1966  |  -1.141078   1.369478    -0.83   0.405    -3.825205     1.54305
        1967  |   -1.21858    1.36297    -0.89   0.371    -3.889952    1.452792
        1968  |  -1.479856   1.273222    -1.16   0.245    -3.975325    1.015613
        1969  |  -1.165508   1.324493    -0.88   0.379    -3.761466     1.43045
        1970  |  -1.296947   1.318954    -0.98   0.325     -3.88205    1.288155
        1971  |  -.3218449   1.158707    -0.28   0.781     -2.59287     1.94918
        1972  |  -2.056802   1.361217    -1.51   0.131    -4.724738    .6111349
        1973  |   -2.82106   1.554662    -1.81   0.070    -5.868141    .2260203
        1974  |  -1.088084   1.405648    -0.77   0.439    -3.843104    1.666937
        1975  |  -.9037058   1.338185    -0.68   0.499      -3.5265    1.719088
        1976  |  -.6591152   1.312482    -0.50   0.616    -3.231532    1.913302
        1977  |  -.9127704   1.305949    -0.70   0.485    -3.472384    1.646843
        1978  |   .3557587   1.346823     0.26   0.792    -2.283965    2.995482
        1979  |  -1.317839    1.32173    -1.00   0.319    -3.908383    1.272705
        1980  |   -.976989   1.311034    -0.75   0.456    -3.546568     1.59259
        1981  |  -1.049456   1.357156    -0.77   0.439    -3.709432     1.61052
        1982  |  -.5276072   1.292969    -0.41   0.683    -3.061779    2.006565
        1983  |  -.7140267   1.318534    -0.54   0.588    -3.298306    1.870252
        1984  |  -.4879279   1.273357    -0.38   0.702    -2.983663    2.007807
        1985  |   -.758777   1.301727    -0.58   0.560    -3.310115    1.792561
        1986  |  -1.220167   1.324092    -0.92   0.357    -3.815339    1.375005
        1987  |  -.9639904   1.316045    -0.73   0.464    -3.543392    1.615411
        1988  |  -.2049374   1.286923    -0.16   0.873     -2.72726    2.317385
        1989  |  -1.798757   1.316991    -1.37   0.172    -4.380012    .7824975
        1990  |  -1.493666   1.355626    -1.10   0.271    -4.150643    1.163312
        1991  |  -1.716486    1.34838    -1.27   0.203    -4.359262      .92629
        1992  |  -.9139448   1.363415    -0.67   0.503     -3.58619      1.7583
        1993  |  -1.637206   1.384166    -1.18   0.237    -4.350121    1.075709
        1994  |   -1.41402   1.449038    -0.98   0.329    -4.254082    1.426042
        1995  |  -1.549901   1.424111    -1.09   0.276    -4.341106    1.241305
        1996  |  -1.743227   1.400565    -1.24   0.213    -4.488283     1.00183
        1997  |  -1.764732   1.377842    -1.28   0.200    -4.465252    .9357892
        1998  |  -.8691343   1.362596    -0.64   0.524    -3.539773    1.801505
        1999  |  -.9057748   1.366812    -0.66   0.508    -3.584676    1.773127
        2000  |  -1.591038   1.371679    -1.16   0.246     -4.27948    1.097404
        2001  |  -2.073114    1.37318    -1.51   0.131    -4.764497    .6182682
        2002  |  -1.358191   1.457169    -0.93   0.351    -4.214188    1.497807
        2003  |  -2.407175   1.674683    -1.44   0.151    -5.689493    .8751428
        2004  |  -1.250871   1.515526    -0.83   0.409    -4.221247    1.719504
        2005  |  -2.078415   1.564267    -1.33   0.184    -5.144321    .9874909
        2006  |  -3.328623   1.408986    -2.36   0.018    -6.090185    -.567061
        2007  |  -2.960579   1.507388    -1.96   0.050    -5.915005    -.006152
        2008  |  -2.827059   1.371469    -2.06   0.039    -5.515088   -.1390298
        2009  |  -2.563458   1.408263    -1.82   0.069    -5.323602    .1966865
        2010  |  -3.079128   1.386933    -2.22   0.026    -5.797466   -.3607897
        2011  |  -2.616921   1.464774    -1.79   0.074    -5.487824    .2539833
        2012  |  -3.003464   1.573658    -1.91   0.056    -6.087777    .0808488
        2013  |  -2.532809   1.374257    -1.84   0.065    -5.226303    .1606851
        2014  |  -1.552898   1.427122    -1.09   0.277    -4.350005    1.244209
        2015  |  -2.285747   1.392851    -1.64   0.101    -5.015685    .4441906
        2016  |  -3.209172   1.523309    -2.11   0.035    -6.194802   -.2235422
        2017  |  -2.720961   1.463184    -1.86   0.063    -5.588749    .1468266
              |
        _cons |  -1.795072   1.365862    -1.31   0.189    -4.472113     .881968
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.006453   .1910264                      1.632048    2.380858
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.727067   .2604709                      2.261491    3.288492
          rho |   .6933028   .0406187                      .6085451     .766743
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_c
> old_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(74)     =     403.18
Log pseudolikelihood  = -836.76728              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .6628711   .4312095     1.54   0.124    -.1822841    1.508026
incomp_rel_~f |   .7226606   .3626506     1.99   0.046     .0118784    1.433443
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.492242   .7982417     3.12   0.002     .9277174    4.056767
  incomp_terr |   -1.03845   .4489483    -2.31   0.021    -1.918372   -.1585275
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0593705   .0323385    -1.84   0.066    -.1227527    .0040117
 vdem_rescale |  -.0357355   .0549708    -0.65   0.516    -.1434763    .0720054
vdem_rescal~q |   .0069122   .0080016     0.86   0.388    -.0087707    .0225951
 active_dyads |   .1122504   .1320892     0.85   0.395    -.1466397    .3711405
post_cold_war |  -2.720961   1.463184    -1.86   0.063    -5.588749    .1468266
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.212863   1.313903    -0.92   0.356    -3.788065    1.362339
        1952  |  -1.469082   1.450413    -1.01   0.311     -4.31184    1.373675
        1953  |   .1953886   1.434186     0.14   0.892    -2.615564    3.006341
        1954  |  -2.982661   1.565946    -1.90   0.057    -6.051859    .0865374
        1955  |  -1.236672   2.124478    -0.58   0.560    -5.400573    2.927229
        1956  |   -2.23519   2.285108    -0.98   0.328     -6.71392    2.243539
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.409834    1.86268    -0.76   0.449    -5.060619    2.240951
        1959  |  -2.229697   1.984104    -1.12   0.261    -6.118468    1.659075
        1960  |  -3.073757   1.651947    -1.86   0.063    -6.311514    .1640006
        1961  |  -.8503122   1.565958    -0.54   0.587    -3.919533    2.218908
        1962  |   -.297504   1.581518    -0.19   0.851    -3.397223    2.802215
        1963  |  -.3435954    1.55635    -0.22   0.825    -3.393985    2.706794
        1964  |  -1.102851   1.396787    -0.79   0.430    -3.840504    1.634801
        1965  |  -1.307658   1.432212    -0.91   0.361    -4.114742    1.499426
        1966  |  -1.141078   1.369478    -0.83   0.405    -3.825205     1.54305
        1967  |   -1.21858    1.36297    -0.89   0.371    -3.889952    1.452792
        1968  |  -1.479856   1.273222    -1.16   0.245    -3.975325    1.015613
        1969  |  -1.165508   1.324493    -0.88   0.379    -3.761466     1.43045
        1970  |  -1.296947   1.318954    -0.98   0.325     -3.88205    1.288155
        1971  |  -.3218449   1.158707    -0.28   0.781     -2.59287     1.94918
        1972  |  -2.056802   1.361217    -1.51   0.131    -4.724738    .6111349
        1973  |   -2.82106   1.554662    -1.81   0.070    -5.868141    .2260203
        1974  |  -1.088084   1.405648    -0.77   0.439    -3.843104    1.666937
        1975  |  -.9037058   1.338185    -0.68   0.499      -3.5265    1.719088
        1976  |  -.6591152   1.312482    -0.50   0.616    -3.231532    1.913302
        1977  |  -.9127704   1.305949    -0.70   0.485    -3.472384    1.646843
        1978  |   .3557587   1.346823     0.26   0.792    -2.283965    2.995482
        1979  |  -1.317839    1.32173    -1.00   0.319    -3.908383    1.272705
        1980  |   -.976989   1.311034    -0.75   0.456    -3.546568     1.59259
        1981  |  -1.049456   1.357156    -0.77   0.439    -3.709432     1.61052
        1982  |  -.5276072   1.292969    -0.41   0.683    -3.061779    2.006565
        1983  |  -.7140267   1.318534    -0.54   0.588    -3.298306    1.870252
        1984  |  -.4879279   1.273357    -0.38   0.702    -2.983663    2.007807
        1985  |   -.758777   1.301727    -0.58   0.560    -3.310115    1.792561
        1986  |  -1.220167   1.324092    -0.92   0.357    -3.815339    1.375005
        1987  |  -.9639904   1.316045    -0.73   0.464    -3.543392    1.615411
        1988  |  -.2049374   1.286923    -0.16   0.873     -2.72726    2.317385
        1989  |  -1.798757   1.316991    -1.37   0.172    -4.380012    .7824975
        1990  |  -1.493666   1.355626    -1.10   0.271    -4.150643    1.163312
        1991  |   1.004475   .9290607     1.08   0.280    -.8164504    2.825401
        1992  |   1.807016   .9264099     1.95   0.051    -.0087136    3.622746
        1993  |   1.083755   .9896933     1.10   0.273    -.8560077    3.023519
        1994  |   1.306941   1.060472     1.23   0.218    -.7715447    3.385428
        1995  |   1.171061   1.022353     1.15   0.252    -.8327137    3.174835
        1996  |   .9777347    1.01241     0.97   0.334    -1.006553    2.962023
        1997  |   .9562297   .9479115     1.01   0.313    -.9016427    2.814102
        1998  |   1.851827   .9285087     1.99   0.046     .0319835    3.671671
        1999  |   1.815186   .9208975     1.97   0.049     .0102606    3.620112
        2000  |   1.129923   .9672574     1.17   0.243    -.7658666    3.025713
        2001  |    .647847   .9521317     0.68   0.496    -1.218297    2.513991
        2002  |   1.362771   1.039987     1.31   0.190     -.675567    3.401108
        2003  |   .3137863   1.409489     0.22   0.824    -2.448761    3.076334
        2004  |    1.47009   1.201974     1.22   0.221     -.885736    3.825916
        2005  |   .6425461   1.138423     0.56   0.572    -1.588722    2.873815
        2006  |  -.6076619   .8049192    -0.75   0.450    -2.185275    .9699508
        2007  |  -.2396173   .7966616    -0.30   0.764    -1.801045    1.321811
        2008  |  -.1060977   .8654177    -0.12   0.902    -1.802285     1.59009
        2009  |   .1575035   .9821113     0.16   0.873    -1.767399    2.082406
        2010  |  -.3581664    .912141    -0.39   0.695     -2.14593    1.429597
        2011  |   .1040407     1.0564     0.10   0.922    -1.966465    2.174547
        2012  |   -.282503   1.221409    -0.23   0.817     -2.67642    2.111414
        2013  |   .1881521   .7765561     0.24   0.809     -1.33387    1.710174
        2014  |   1.168063   .8106362     1.44   0.150    -.4207542    2.756881
        2015  |   .4352139   .7912592     0.55   0.582    -1.115626    1.986053
        2016  |  -.4882108   .9224776    -0.53   0.597    -2.296234    1.319812
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.795072   1.365862    -1.31   0.189    -4.472113     .881968
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.006453   .1910264                      1.632048    2.380858
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.727067   .2604709                      2.261491    3.288492
          rho |   .6933028   .0406187                      .6085451     .766743
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_a
> ff) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_s
> q active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     410.00
Log pseudolikelihood  = -836.45557              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.203311   1.652839    -1.94   0.053    -6.442817    .0361949
incomp_ideo~l |   .5013471   .5786007     0.87   0.386    -.6326895    1.635384
incomp_rel_~f |   .5612581   .4815243     1.17   0.244    -.3825122    1.505028
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |   .3693139   .6200786     0.60   0.551    -.8460179    1.584646
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |    .289217   .6864345     0.42   0.674     -1.05617    1.634604
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.510242   .7878055     3.19   0.001     .9661715    4.054312
  incomp_terr |  -1.023129   .4521015    -2.26   0.024    -1.909232   -.1370267
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0598822   .0327562    -1.83   0.068    -.1240832    .0043188
 vdem_rescale |  -.0362545   .0552843    -0.66   0.512    -.1446099    .0721008
vdem_rescal~q |   .0061647   .0079046     0.78   0.435    -.0093282    .0216575
 active_dyads |   .1087677   .1342673     0.81   0.418    -.1543913    .3719267
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.224837   1.314641    -0.93   0.351    -3.801487    1.351812
        1952  |  -1.481859   1.455898    -1.02   0.309    -4.335367     1.37165
        1953  |   .1694034   1.428883     0.12   0.906    -2.631155    2.969962
        1954  |  -3.010611   1.566954    -1.92   0.055    -6.081785    .0605627
        1955  |  -1.272427   2.109977    -0.60   0.546    -5.407906    2.863052
        1956  |  -2.229222   2.275683    -0.98   0.327    -6.689479    2.231035
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.440719   1.856226    -0.78   0.438    -5.078856    2.197417
        1959  |  -2.237856   1.980491    -1.13   0.258    -6.119547    1.643834
        1960  |  -3.113686   1.654663    -1.88   0.060    -6.356766    .1293951
        1961  |  -.8922359   1.566171    -0.57   0.569    -3.961875    2.177404
        1962  |  -.3367343    1.58503    -0.21   0.832    -3.443337    2.769868
        1963  |  -.3971981   1.601169    -0.25   0.804    -3.535432    2.741036
        1964  |  -1.168639   1.433075    -0.82   0.415    -3.977416    1.640137
        1965  |  -1.374604   1.461039    -0.94   0.347    -4.238188    1.488979
        1966  |   -1.20129   1.399504    -0.86   0.391    -3.944268    1.541688
        1967  |  -1.277061   1.394988    -0.92   0.360    -4.011187    1.457065
        1968  |  -1.535784   1.276871    -1.20   0.229    -4.038406     .966838
        1969  |  -1.226718   1.330274    -0.92   0.356    -3.834007     1.38057
        1970  |  -1.358303    1.32165    -1.03   0.304     -3.94869    1.232084
        1971  |  -.3968768   1.173529    -0.34   0.735     -2.69695    1.903197
        1972  |  -2.125129   1.362308    -1.56   0.119    -4.795203    .5449453
        1973  |  -2.855992   1.527611    -1.87   0.062    -5.850053    .1380702
        1974  |  -1.148387    1.41023    -0.81   0.415    -3.912387    1.615614
        1975  |  -.9625862   1.347084    -0.71   0.475    -3.602822     1.67765
        1976  |  -.7223861    1.32369    -0.55   0.585    -3.316771    1.871998
        1977  |   -.972039   1.316035    -0.74   0.460    -3.551421    1.607343
        1978  |   .2923033   1.364025     0.21   0.830    -2.381136    2.965743
        1979  |  -1.388214   1.332803    -1.04   0.298    -4.000459    1.224032
        1980  |  -1.045069   1.321279    -0.79   0.429    -3.634727     1.54459
        1981  |  -1.116266   1.379485    -0.81   0.418    -3.820008    1.587476
        1982  |  -.5949576   1.306949    -0.46   0.649     -3.15653    1.966615
        1983  |  -.7772237   1.338225    -0.58   0.561    -3.400097     1.84565
        1984  |  -.5503258   1.296369    -0.42   0.671    -3.091162     1.99051
        1985  |  -.8249501   1.324231    -0.62   0.533    -3.420395    1.770495
        1986  |  -1.299015   1.341563    -0.97   0.333     -3.92843      1.3304
        1987  |  -1.033929    1.34064    -0.77   0.441    -3.661535    1.593677
        1988  |  -.2780667   1.301751    -0.21   0.831    -2.829452    2.273319
        1989  |  -1.870528   1.330073    -1.41   0.160    -4.477424     .736368
        1990  |  -1.562017   1.367763    -1.14   0.253    -4.242784     1.11875
        1991  |   1.027811   .9387561     1.09   0.274    -.8121169     2.86774
        1992  |   1.807992   .9292305     1.95   0.052    -.0132661     3.62925
        1993  |   1.082118   .9907631     1.09   0.275    -.8597424    3.023977
        1994  |   1.328332   1.063039     1.25   0.211     -.755187     3.41185
        1995  |   1.181249   1.029294     1.15   0.251    -.8361308     3.19863
        1996  |   .9760338   1.015007     0.96   0.336    -1.013344    2.965411
        1997  |      .9484    .948048     1.00   0.317      -.90974     2.80654
        1998  |     1.8463   .9323864     1.98   0.048     .0188558    3.673743
        1999  |   1.805588   .9158057     1.97   0.049     .0106419    3.600534
        2000  |   1.115337    .968759     1.15   0.250    -.7833954     3.01407
        2001  |   .6214598   .9546192     0.65   0.515    -1.249559    2.492479
        2002  |   1.346093   1.045007     1.29   0.198    -.7020832     3.39427
        2003  |   .3155569   1.411128     0.22   0.823    -2.450202    3.081316
        2004  |   1.463542   1.206435     1.21   0.225    -.9010267     3.82811
        2005  |   .6221465   1.140362     0.55   0.585    -1.612922    2.857215
        2006  |  -.6321216   .7996828    -0.79   0.429    -2.199471    .9352278
        2007  |  -.2672214   .7924708    -0.34   0.736    -1.820436    1.285993
        2008  |  -.1261853    .863579    -0.15   0.884    -1.818769    1.566398
        2009  |   .1372699   .9841292     0.14   0.889    -1.791588    2.066128
        2010  |  -.3697792   .9146086    -0.40   0.686    -2.162379    1.422821
        2011  |   .0839363   1.055635     0.08   0.937    -1.985071    2.152944
        2012  |   -.297953    1.22182    -0.24   0.807    -2.692676     2.09677
        2013  |   .1764532   .7804009     0.23   0.821    -1.353105    1.706011
        2014  |   1.162611   .8124357     1.43   0.152    -.4297333    2.754956
        2015  |   .4362888    .790364     0.55   0.581    -1.112796    1.985374
        2016  |  -.4977028   .9237139    -0.54   0.590    -2.308149    1.312743
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.499732   1.452422    -1.03   0.302    -4.346426    1.346962
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |    2.00042   .1929142                      1.622315    2.378525
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.718852   .2622527                      2.250511    3.284657
          rho |   .6920183   .0411156                       .606224    .7663254
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dya
> ds l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -9570303.5  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5933856.9  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5273390.2  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2663915.6  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2059786.6  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -693019.55  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -426413.97  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -419813.32  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -419750.87  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -419750.87  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334077.29  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6398.0551  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6281.9802  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6264.1238  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6200.5977  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6154.8828  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =    -6120.5  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6119.8474  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6119.8455  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -6119.8455  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -93770.467  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -12051.021  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7853.8609  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6918.3497  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6235.0317  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6052.5734  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -6036.7279  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5901.1417  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5881.2706  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5842.6145  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5840.6379  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -5840.6285  
Iteration 12:  log likelihood = -5840.6285  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        843
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        181

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.7
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(36)     =      86.25
Log likelihood  = -5840.6285                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.0626035   .1105988    -0.57   0.571    -.2793732    .1541663
incomp_rel_~f |   .0592135   .0980107     0.60   0.546     -.132884     .251311
rebel_ext_m~t |   .4978415   .2702174     1.84   0.065    -.0317749    1.027458
  incomp_terr |  -.1899481   .1053853    -1.80   0.071    -.3964995    .0166034
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0015833   .0122195    -0.13   0.897     -.025533    .0223665
 vdem_rescale |   .0150394   .0109391     1.37   0.169    -.0064009    .0364798
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0007951   .0019441    -0.41   0.683    -.0046055    .0030154
     rcd_loot |  -.0122901   .0841081    -0.15   0.884    -.1771389    .1525588
    rcd_crime |   .3811362   .0921436     4.14   0.000      .200538    .5617343
 active_dyads |  -.0094926   .0403759    -0.24   0.814     -.088628    .0696427
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000615   .0000112     5.50   0.000     .0000396    .0000834
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2305658   .1778629    -1.30   0.195    -.5791708    .1180391
        1992  |   .1452216   .1734166     0.84   0.402    -.1946686    .4851119
        1993  |  -.0283718   .1778802    -0.16   0.873    -.3770106     .320267
        1994  |  -.0210984    .176968    -0.12   0.905    -.3679493    .3257525
        1995  |  -.1869787   .1799207    -1.04   0.299    -.5396168    .1656594
        1996  |   .0109602   .1883314     0.06   0.954    -.3581626     .380083
        1997  |  -.1102738    .190528    -0.58   0.563    -.4837018    .2631542
        1998  |  -.0841233   .1837103    -0.46   0.647    -.4441888    .2759422
        1999  |  -.0623525    .183667    -0.34   0.734    -.4223333    .2976283
        2000  |  -.0847912   .1834459    -0.46   0.644    -.4443385    .2747561
        2001  |  -.3137288   .1843359    -1.70   0.089    -.6750206     .047563
        2002  |   .0231039   .1782371     0.13   0.897    -.3262344    .3724422
        2003  |  -.3051151   .1924171    -1.59   0.113    -.6822457    .0720156
        2004  |  -.1479346   .1905019    -0.78   0.437    -.5213114    .2254423
        2005  |  -.1930887   .1982444    -0.97   0.330    -.5816406    .1954632
        2006  |  -.2460229   .1911037    -1.29   0.198    -.6205793    .1285334
        2007  |  -.1132343   .1927633    -0.59   0.557    -.4910434    .2645747
        2008  |  -.1173369   .1889246    -0.62   0.535    -.4876223    .2529486
        2009  |  -.1150291   .1865215    -0.62   0.537    -.4806046    .2505464
        2010  |  -.3141916   .1948635    -1.61   0.107     -.696117    .0677338
        2011  |  -.4213496   .1997914    -2.11   0.035    -.8129335   -.0297657
        2012  |  -.3094141   .2092819    -1.48   0.139    -.7195992    .1007709
        2013  |   -.495248   .2144849    -2.31   0.021    -.9156308   -.0748653
        2014  |  -.2253292   .2022798    -1.11   0.265    -.6217903    .1711318
        2015  |  -.4315754   .2044475    -2.11   0.035    -.8322851   -.0308657
              |
        _cons |   .4387732   .3462425     1.27   0.205    -.2398496    1.117396
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0675588   .1178352                     -.2985115    .1633938
        /ln_s |   4.533092   .1996989                      4.141689    4.924495
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9346727   .1101373                      .7419217      1.1775
            s |   93.04582   18.58115                      62.90901    137.6198
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 558.43               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dya
> ds l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -112931.99  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6507.3843  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5319.3432  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4823.7415  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4504.6251  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4365.8471  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood =  -4358.536  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4358.3628  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4358.3627  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        782
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        120

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(36)     =      95.36
Log likelihood  = -4358.3627                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.0615219   .1345833    -0.46   0.648    -.3253004    .2022565
incomp_rel_~f |   .0990527   .1148158     0.86   0.388    -.1259821    .3240875
rebel_ext_m~t |   .2531057     .35679     0.71   0.478    -.4461898    .9524012
  incomp_terr |  -.0953562   .1242857    -0.77   0.443    -.3389517    .1482392
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0113756   .0154441     0.74   0.461    -.0188943    .0416455
 vdem_rescale |    .034917   .0121216     2.88   0.004     .0111591    .0586748
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0008313   .0021102    -0.39   0.694    -.0049672    .0033046
     rcd_loot |   -.080574   .0928649    -0.87   0.386    -.2625858    .1014379
    rcd_crime |   .4670945   .1040263     4.49   0.000     .2632068    .6709822
 active_dyads |   .0111475    .045183     0.25   0.805    -.0774096    .0997046
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000503   .0000124     4.07   0.000     .0000261    .0000745
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2620785   .1810199    -1.45   0.148     -.616871    .0927141
        1992  |   .1087452   .1843917     0.59   0.555    -.2526559    .4701463
        1993  |  -.0798522    .192583    -0.41   0.678     -.457308    .2976035
        1994  |   -.099673   .1938815    -0.51   0.607    -.4796737    .2803277
        1995  |  -.2653106   .1924896    -1.38   0.168    -.6425833    .1119621
        1996  |  -.0754398   .2002277    -0.38   0.706     -.467879    .3169993
        1997  |  -.2670796   .2051727    -1.30   0.193    -.6692108    .1350516
        1998  |  -.2533977   .2003452    -1.26   0.206     -.646067    .1392716
        1999  |   -.248382   .2018796    -1.23   0.219    -.6440587    .1472948
        2000  |   -.218417   .1972881    -1.11   0.268    -.6050947    .1682606
        2001  |  -.4424724   .1967789    -2.25   0.025     -.828152   -.0567928
        2002  |  -.1132475   .1896681    -0.60   0.550    -.4849901     .258495
        2003  |  -.4391809   .2039212    -2.15   0.031    -.8388591   -.0395027
        2004  |  -.2887949   .1997232    -1.45   0.148    -.6802452    .1026554
        2005  |  -.3597768   .2077645    -1.73   0.083    -.7669877     .047434
        2006  |  -.3937435   .2038794    -1.93   0.053    -.7933399    .0058529
        2007  |  -.2727952   .2061452    -1.32   0.186    -.6768324     .131242
        2008  |  -.2863752   .2066606    -1.39   0.166    -.6914224    .1186721
        2009  |  -.2412075   .2024963    -1.19   0.234     -.638093     .155678
        2010  |  -.4845058   .2114302    -2.29   0.022    -.8989014   -.0701103
        2011  |  -.6226709    .219472    -2.84   0.005    -1.052828   -.1925137
        2012  |  -.5752838   .2259298    -2.55   0.011    -1.018098   -.1324695
        2013  |  -.7809562   .2351291    -3.32   0.001    -1.241801   -.3201116
        2014  |   -.428686   .2214607    -1.94   0.053     -.862741     .005369
        2015  |  -.6648238    .228068    -2.92   0.004    -1.111829   -.2178187
              |
        _cons |   .2024118   .4302092     0.47   0.638    -.6407827    1.045606
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ********************
. * Table A5. Determinants of Conflict Intensity – Specific ideological Incompat
> ibilities – Dyadic *
. ******************************************************************************
> ********************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year
>  if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1096.6684  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.9681  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7917  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1023.5799
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -983.16473
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -954.40463
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -933.00299
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -917.02309
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -905.97131
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -899.94022
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -902.34451

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -899.80311  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -846.65121  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.17792  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.91315  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -835.8999  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -835.8999  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.89557  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.89557  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     412.14
Log pseudolikelihood  = -835.89557              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |    .511696   .4949748     1.03   0.301    -.4584368    1.481829
 Theological  |   1.274243   .5789056     2.20   0.028     .1396091    2.408877
        Both  |    .858361   .5317748     1.61   0.106    -.1838984     1.90062
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .6694326   .3683447     1.82   0.069    -.0525097    1.391375
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.559659   .7999802     3.20   0.001     .9917267    4.127592
  incomp_terr |  -.9287571   .4388145    -2.12   0.034    -1.788818   -.0686965
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0594213   .0317945    -1.87   0.062    -.1217374    .0028948
 vdem_rescale |   -.030801   .0549789    -0.56   0.575    -.1385576    .0769556
vdem_rescal~q |   .0067126   .0081319     0.83   0.409    -.0092257    .0226509
 active_dyads |   .1097072    .129779     0.85   0.398    -.1446549    .3640694
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.195083   1.294631    -0.92   0.356    -3.732513    1.342346
        1952  |  -1.467742   1.430642    -1.03   0.305    -4.271749    1.336266
        1953  |   .1594947   1.405171     0.11   0.910     -2.59459     2.91358
        1954  |  -2.970555    1.55372    -1.91   0.056     -6.01579    .0746807
        1955  |  -1.271168   2.095255    -0.61   0.544    -5.377792    2.835455
        1956  |  -2.234838   2.263872    -0.99   0.324    -6.671946    2.202269
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.434486   1.843324    -0.78   0.436    -5.047335    2.178362
        1959  |  -2.232749   1.961036    -1.14   0.255    -6.076309     1.61081
        1960  |  -3.068656   1.637213    -1.87   0.061    -6.277536    .1402227
        1961  |  -.8966293   1.541235    -0.58   0.561    -3.917395    2.124137
        1962  |  -.3392922   1.556603    -0.22   0.827    -3.390177    2.711593
        1963  |  -.4098577   1.551218    -0.26   0.792    -3.450189    2.630474
        1964  |  -1.175105   1.392673    -0.84   0.399    -3.904694    1.554484
        1965  |  -1.372671   1.420847    -0.97   0.334    -4.157479    1.412137
        1966  |  -1.198975   1.359092    -0.88   0.378    -3.862747    1.464797
        1967  |  -1.273393   1.356769    -0.94   0.348    -3.932612    1.385826
        1968  |  -1.534663   1.259245    -1.22   0.223    -4.002737     .933412
        1969  |   -1.23537   1.307591    -0.94   0.345    -3.798202    1.327462
        1970  |  -1.368923   1.303202    -1.05   0.294    -3.923152    1.185307
        1971  |  -.4036143   1.146562    -0.35   0.725    -2.650834    1.843605
        1972  |  -2.134814   1.344724    -1.59   0.112    -4.770425    .5007959
        1973  |  -2.872688   1.521877    -1.89   0.059    -5.855512    .1101359
        1974  |  -1.168221   1.387843    -0.84   0.400    -3.888343    1.551902
        1975  |  -.9886378   1.322432    -0.75   0.455    -3.580557    1.603282
        1976  |  -.7464265   1.301513    -0.57   0.566    -3.297345    1.804492
        1977  |  -.9970903   1.293024    -0.77   0.441    -3.531371     1.53719
        1978  |    .269804   1.335243     0.20   0.840    -2.347224    2.886832
        1979  |  -1.415416   1.310489    -1.08   0.280    -3.983926    1.153095
        1980  |  -1.072465   1.299943    -0.83   0.409    -3.620307    1.475377
        1981  |  -1.142308   1.352017    -0.84   0.398    -3.792212    1.507596
        1982  |  -.6304211   1.282343    -0.49   0.623    -3.143767    1.882925
        1983  |  -.8177782   1.310063    -0.62   0.532    -3.385455    1.749899
        1984  |  -.5935237   1.264513    -0.47   0.639    -3.071924    1.884877
        1985  |   -.859423   1.291256    -0.67   0.506    -3.390239    1.671393
        1986  |  -1.332762   1.314643    -1.01   0.311    -3.909415    1.243891
        1987  |  -1.076056   1.314424    -0.82   0.413    -3.652279    1.500167
        1988  |  -.3277604   1.276194    -0.26   0.797    -2.829054    2.173533
        1989  |  -1.917171   1.315038    -1.46   0.145    -4.494598    .6602559
        1990  |  -1.619248   1.363935    -1.19   0.235    -4.292511    1.054015
        1991  |  -1.856648   1.355159    -1.37   0.171    -4.512712    .7994149
        1992  |  -1.115463   1.392995    -0.80   0.423    -3.845683    1.614757
        1993  |  -1.851054   1.416401    -1.31   0.191    -4.627149    .9250406
        1994  |  -1.612888   1.472557    -1.10   0.273    -4.499047    1.273272
        1995  |  -1.748061   1.446768    -1.21   0.227    -4.583674    1.087553
        1996  |  -1.939697   1.425129    -1.36   0.173    -4.732899    .8535048
        1997  |  -1.946353   1.396145    -1.39   0.163    -4.682747    .7900418
        1998  |   -1.05643   1.384194    -0.76   0.445    -3.769401    1.656541
        1999  |  -1.132836    1.40922    -0.80   0.421    -3.894858    1.629185
        2000  |  -1.817485   1.399505    -1.30   0.194    -4.560464    .9254935
        2001  |  -2.255424   1.402233    -1.61   0.108    -5.003751    .4929018
        2002  |  -1.549377     1.4881    -1.04   0.298       -4.466    1.367246
        2003  |   -2.61803   1.714145    -1.53   0.127    -5.977693     .741632
        2004  |  -1.478422   1.550438    -0.95   0.340    -4.517225    1.560382
        2005  |  -2.277237   1.588247    -1.43   0.152    -5.390143    .8356687
        2006  |  -3.544968   1.459291    -2.43   0.015    -6.405126   -.6848098
        2007  |  -3.224146   1.566247    -2.06   0.040    -6.293932   -.1543586
        2008  |  -3.101878   1.417416    -2.19   0.029    -5.879962   -.3237937
        2009  |  -2.821585   1.455292    -1.94   0.053    -5.673904    .0307351
        2010  |  -3.379388    1.39994    -2.41   0.016     -6.12322   -.6355549
        2011  |  -2.819582   1.487647    -1.90   0.058    -5.735316    .0961525
        2012  |  -3.217574   1.578455    -2.04   0.042    -6.311288   -.1238597
        2013  |  -2.756251   1.390576    -1.98   0.047     -5.48173   -.0307709
        2014  |   -1.79848   1.443977    -1.25   0.213    -4.628623    1.031662
        2015  |  -2.505253    1.39436    -1.80   0.072    -5.238149    .2276436
        2016  |  -3.419754   1.553564    -2.20   0.028    -6.464683   -.3748243
        2017  |  -2.950633   1.476611    -2.00   0.046    -5.844738    -.056528
              |
        _cons |  -1.626415   1.409586    -1.15   0.249    -4.389152    1.136322
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.974718   .1914618                      1.599459    2.349976
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.684136   .2569548                       2.22494    3.238104
          rho |   .6865136    .041205                       .600755    .7611743
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_c
> old_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1096.6684  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.9681  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7917  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1023.5799
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -983.16473
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -954.40463
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -933.00299
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -917.02309
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -905.97131
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -899.94022
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -902.34451

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -899.80311  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -846.65121  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.17792  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.91315  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -835.8999  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -835.8999  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.89557  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.89557  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     412.14
Log pseudolikelihood  = -835.89557              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |    .511696   .4949748     1.03   0.301    -.4584368    1.481829
 Theological  |   1.274243   .5789056     2.20   0.028     .1396091    2.408877
        Both  |    .858361   .5317748     1.61   0.106    -.1838984     1.90062
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .6694326   .3683447     1.82   0.069    -.0525097    1.391375
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.559659   .7999802     3.20   0.001     .9917267    4.127592
  incomp_terr |  -.9287571   .4388145    -2.12   0.034    -1.788818   -.0686965
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0594213   .0317945    -1.87   0.062    -.1217374    .0028948
 vdem_rescale |   -.030801   .0549789    -0.56   0.575    -.1385576    .0769556
vdem_rescal~q |   .0067126   .0081319     0.83   0.409    -.0092257    .0226509
 active_dyads |   .1097072    .129779     0.85   0.398    -.1446549    .3640694
post_cold_war |  -2.950633   1.476611    -2.00   0.046    -5.844738    -.056528
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.195083   1.294631    -0.92   0.356    -3.732513    1.342346
        1952  |  -1.467742   1.430642    -1.03   0.305    -4.271749    1.336266
        1953  |   .1594947   1.405171     0.11   0.910     -2.59459     2.91358
        1954  |  -2.970555    1.55372    -1.91   0.056     -6.01579    .0746807
        1955  |  -1.271168   2.095255    -0.61   0.544    -5.377792    2.835455
        1956  |  -2.234838   2.263872    -0.99   0.324    -6.671946    2.202269
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.434486   1.843324    -0.78   0.436    -5.047335    2.178362
        1959  |  -2.232749   1.961036    -1.14   0.255    -6.076309     1.61081
        1960  |  -3.068656   1.637213    -1.87   0.061    -6.277536    .1402227
        1961  |  -.8966293   1.541235    -0.58   0.561    -3.917395    2.124137
        1962  |  -.3392922   1.556603    -0.22   0.827    -3.390177    2.711593
        1963  |  -.4098577   1.551218    -0.26   0.792    -3.450189    2.630474
        1964  |  -1.175105   1.392673    -0.84   0.399    -3.904694    1.554484
        1965  |  -1.372671   1.420847    -0.97   0.334    -4.157479    1.412137
        1966  |  -1.198975   1.359092    -0.88   0.378    -3.862747    1.464797
        1967  |  -1.273393   1.356769    -0.94   0.348    -3.932612    1.385826
        1968  |  -1.534663   1.259245    -1.22   0.223    -4.002737     .933412
        1969  |   -1.23537   1.307591    -0.94   0.345    -3.798202    1.327462
        1970  |  -1.368923   1.303202    -1.05   0.294    -3.923152    1.185307
        1971  |  -.4036143   1.146562    -0.35   0.725    -2.650834    1.843605
        1972  |  -2.134814   1.344724    -1.59   0.112    -4.770425    .5007959
        1973  |  -2.872688   1.521877    -1.89   0.059    -5.855512    .1101359
        1974  |  -1.168221   1.387843    -0.84   0.400    -3.888343    1.551902
        1975  |  -.9886378   1.322432    -0.75   0.455    -3.580557    1.603282
        1976  |  -.7464265   1.301513    -0.57   0.566    -3.297345    1.804492
        1977  |  -.9970903   1.293024    -0.77   0.441    -3.531371     1.53719
        1978  |    .269804   1.335243     0.20   0.840    -2.347224    2.886832
        1979  |  -1.415416   1.310489    -1.08   0.280    -3.983926    1.153095
        1980  |  -1.072465   1.299943    -0.83   0.409    -3.620307    1.475377
        1981  |  -1.142308   1.352017    -0.84   0.398    -3.792212    1.507596
        1982  |  -.6304211   1.282343    -0.49   0.623    -3.143767    1.882925
        1983  |  -.8177782   1.310063    -0.62   0.532    -3.385455    1.749899
        1984  |  -.5935237   1.264513    -0.47   0.639    -3.071924    1.884877
        1985  |   -.859423   1.291256    -0.67   0.506    -3.390239    1.671393
        1986  |  -1.332762   1.314643    -1.01   0.311    -3.909415    1.243891
        1987  |  -1.076056   1.314424    -0.82   0.413    -3.652279    1.500167
        1988  |  -.3277604   1.276194    -0.26   0.797    -2.829054    2.173533
        1989  |  -1.917171   1.315038    -1.46   0.145    -4.494598    .6602559
        1990  |  -1.619248   1.363935    -1.19   0.235    -4.292511    1.054015
        1991  |   1.093985   .9174017     1.19   0.233    -.7040896    2.892059
        1992  |    1.83517   .9153908     2.00   0.045     .0410375    3.629303
        1993  |   1.099579   .9756475     1.13   0.260    -.8126553    3.011813
        1994  |   1.337746   1.051541     1.27   0.203    -.7232375    3.398728
        1995  |   1.202573   1.012654     1.19   0.235    -.7821919    3.187337
        1996  |   1.010936   1.005209     1.01   0.315    -.9592373    2.981109
        1997  |   1.004281   .9255814     1.09   0.278    -.8098258    2.818387
        1998  |   1.894203   .9078941     2.09   0.037     .1147637    3.673643
        1999  |   1.817797   .9055257     2.01   0.045     .0429991    3.592595
        2000  |   1.133148   .9495591     1.19   0.233     -.727954    2.994249
        2001  |   .6952086   .9318149     0.75   0.456    -1.131115    2.521532
        2002  |   1.401256   1.020282     1.37   0.170    -.5984607    3.400972
        2003  |   .3326028   1.404758     0.24   0.813    -2.420673    3.085878
        2004  |   1.472212   1.190134     1.24   0.216    -.8604076    3.804831
        2005  |   .6733959   1.124811     0.60   0.549    -1.531193    2.877985
        2006  |  -.5943349   .7967946    -0.75   0.456    -2.156024    .9673538
        2007  |  -.2735124   .8107355    -0.34   0.736    -1.862525      1.3155
        2008  |  -.1512447   .8454421    -0.18   0.858    -1.808281    1.505791
        2009  |   .1290486   .9688445     0.13   0.894    -1.769852    2.027949
        2010  |  -.4287544   .8803488    -0.49   0.626    -2.154206    1.296698
        2011  |   .1310513   1.043122     0.13   0.900    -1.913431    2.175533
        2012  |  -.2669406   1.213356    -0.22   0.826    -2.645075    2.111194
        2013  |   .1943825   .7686865     0.25   0.800    -1.312215     1.70098
        2014  |   1.152153   .7999383     1.44   0.150    -.4156974    2.720003
        2015  |   .4453806   .7848435     0.57   0.570    -1.092884    1.983646
        2016  |  -.4691206    .908563    -0.52   0.606    -2.249871     1.31163
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.626415   1.409586    -1.15   0.249    -4.389152    1.136322
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.974718   .1914618                      1.599459    2.349976
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.684136   .2569548                       2.22494    3.238104
          rho |   .6865136    .041205                       .600755    .7611743
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff
> ) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq 
> active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.4903  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1068.0065  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.7691  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.7688  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.7688  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1067.7688
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1011.8188
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -974.26235
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -947.26407
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -927.11033
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -912.27503
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -901.58212
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood =  -895.0704
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -895.72716

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -895.25985  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -840.96004  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.52149  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.20388  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.18922  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.18922  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.18451  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.18451  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(80)     =     442.33
Log pseudolikelihood  = -829.18451              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.677962   1.639447    -2.24   0.025    -6.891218   -.4647058
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .2485579   .5990082     0.41   0.678    -.9254766    1.422592
 Theological  |   1.240308   .8916565     1.39   0.164    -.5073068    2.987922
        Both  |   2.053011   .7517198     2.73   0.006     .5796675    3.526355
              |
incomp_rel_~f |    .470891   .4814607     0.98   0.328    -.4727547    1.414537
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |   .8267403   .6971143     1.19   0.236    -.5395786    2.193059
           1 #|
 Theological  |   .3706493   .8522387     0.43   0.664    -1.299708    2.041006
      1#Both  |  -1.822791   .8191035    -2.23   0.026    -3.428204   -.2173775
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .4196611   .6653221     0.63   0.528    -.8843464    1.723668
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.590479   .7872207     3.29   0.001     1.047555    4.133404
  incomp_terr |  -.9578347   .4485764    -2.14   0.033    -1.837028   -.0786411
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0537137   .0323369    -1.66   0.097    -.1170928    .0096654
 vdem_rescale |  -.0307393   .0592199    -0.52   0.604    -.1468081    .0853295
vdem_rescal~q |   .0066698   .0081461     0.82   0.413    -.0092963    .0226358
 active_dyads |   .0221786   .1227026     0.18   0.857    -.2183141    .2626713
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.223997   1.287371    -0.95   0.342    -3.747198    1.299203
        1952  |  -1.475162   1.430998    -1.03   0.303    -4.279867    1.329542
        1953  |   .0364179   1.346134     0.03   0.978    -2.601955    2.674791
        1954  |  -3.035215   1.552347    -1.96   0.051    -6.077759    .0073297
        1955  |  -1.323211   2.075751    -0.64   0.524    -5.391607    2.745186
        1956  |  -2.253088   2.246766    -1.00   0.316    -6.656668    2.150493
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.522228    1.82808    -0.83   0.405    -5.105199    2.060744
        1959  |  -2.293408   1.961612    -1.17   0.242    -6.138097     1.55128
        1960  |  -3.190202   1.642373    -1.94   0.052    -6.409194    .0287905
        1961  |  -1.065772   1.536822    -0.69   0.488    -4.077887    1.946343
        1962  |  -.5025296   1.559307    -0.32   0.747    -3.558715    2.553656
        1963  |  -.6172726   1.607712    -0.38   0.701     -3.76833    2.533785
        1964  |  -1.409598   1.433852    -0.98   0.326    -4.219897    1.400701
        1965  |  -1.607218   1.452733    -1.11   0.269    -4.454522    1.240087
        1966  |  -1.376731   1.395204    -0.99   0.324     -4.11128    1.357818
        1967  |   -1.46521   1.392127    -1.05   0.293    -4.193728    1.263308
        1968  |  -1.734865   1.256853    -1.38   0.167    -4.198252    .7285216
        1969  |  -1.447385   1.303778    -1.11   0.267    -4.002744    1.107973
        1970  |  -1.575626   1.294901    -1.22   0.224    -4.113585    .9623338
        1971  |  -.6283774   1.151906    -0.55   0.585    -2.886072    1.629317
        1972  |  -2.388559   1.334661    -1.79   0.074    -5.004447    .2273292
        1973  |  -3.062016   1.461511    -2.10   0.036    -5.926525   -.1975078
        1974  |  -1.404056   1.381863    -1.02   0.310    -4.112459    1.304346
        1975  |   -1.20307   1.323627    -0.91   0.363     -3.79733    1.391191
        1976  |  -.9752955   1.311014    -0.74   0.457    -3.544835    1.594244
        1977  |  -1.196911   1.296668    -0.92   0.356    -3.738334    1.344513
        1978  |    .058468   1.346828     0.04   0.965    -2.581266    2.698202
        1979  |  -1.721583   1.311392    -1.31   0.189    -4.291865    .8486993
        1980  |  -1.419624   1.309021    -1.08   0.278    -3.985258     1.14601
        1981  |  -1.466942   1.383076    -1.06   0.289    -4.177721    1.243836
        1982  |  -.9422387   1.293691    -0.73   0.466    -3.477826    1.593349
        1983  |  -1.119968   1.342456    -0.83   0.404    -3.751133    1.511197
        1984  |  -.8598536   1.294811    -0.66   0.507    -3.397637     1.67793
        1985  |   -1.13578   1.320444    -0.86   0.390    -3.723803    1.452244
        1986  |  -1.642531   1.338109    -1.23   0.220    -4.265176    .9801133
        1987  |  -1.372808   1.344257    -1.02   0.307    -4.007503    1.261887
        1988  |  -.6035308    1.30519    -0.46   0.644    -3.161657    1.954595
        1989  |  -2.288283   1.371164    -1.67   0.095    -4.975715    .3991491
        1990  |   -1.95451    1.42223    -1.37   0.169    -4.742029    .8330091
        1991  |   1.231818   .8975574     1.37   0.170    -.5273618    2.990999
        1992  |   1.807217   .8971656     2.01   0.044     .0488049    3.565629
        1993  |   1.133871   .9643016     1.18   0.240    -.7561253    3.023867
        1994  |   1.327535   1.029755     1.29   0.197    -.6907478    3.345817
        1995  |   1.180052   .9947689     1.19   0.236    -.7696597    3.129763
        1996  |   1.037472    .986167     1.05   0.293    -.8953797    2.970324
        1997  |   .9843639    .915189     1.08   0.282    -.8093736    2.778101
        1998  |   1.861673   .8956634     2.08   0.038     .1062053    3.617141
        1999  |   1.778612   .8913394     2.00   0.046     .0316187    3.525605
        2000  |   1.071254   .9429795     1.14   0.256    -.7769517     2.91946
        2001  |   .6847568    .912574     0.75   0.453    -1.103855    2.473369
        2002  |   1.400075   1.014453     1.38   0.168    -.5882169    3.388366
        2003  |   .4342386   1.339767     0.32   0.746    -2.191656    3.060133
        2004  |   1.509636   1.151221     1.31   0.190    -.7467166    3.765988
        2005  |   .6443893   1.108631     0.58   0.561    -1.528488    2.817267
        2006  |   -.594079   .7612058    -0.78   0.435    -2.086015    .8978569
        2007  |  -.3707401   .8346643    -0.44   0.657    -2.006652    1.265172
        2008  |  -.2673618   .7922775    -0.34   0.736    -1.820197    1.285473
        2009  |   .0112199   .9448646     0.01   0.991    -1.840681     1.86312
        2010  |  -.5482452    .839875    -0.65   0.514     -2.19437     1.09788
        2011  |   .1743554   1.020595     0.17   0.864    -1.825974    2.174685
        2012  |  -.2830193   1.210136    -0.23   0.815    -2.654843    2.088804
        2013  |   .2269516   .7716683     0.29   0.769     -1.28549    1.739394
        2014  |   1.154525   .7892352     1.46   0.144    -.3923475    2.701398
        2015  |    .427057   .7723269     0.55   0.580    -1.086676     1.94079
        2016  |   -.491177   .9138634    -0.54   0.591    -2.282316    1.299962
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.219502   1.472097    -0.83   0.407    -4.104759    1.665755
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.005022   .1937266                      1.625325    2.384719
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.725116   .2639637                      2.253901    3.294846
          rho |   .6929983   .0412157                      .6069423    .7674328
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dya
> ds l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -9349260.2  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6658803.2  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =   -5331234  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -3879017.3  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2861521.9  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -1064487.8  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -440671.99  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -401859.85  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -399973.26  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood =  -399966.4  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood =  -399966.4  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334077.29  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6398.0551  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6281.9802  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6264.1238  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6200.3396  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6195.3919  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -6112.893  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6109.4572  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -6109.442  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood =  -6109.442  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -91673.309  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =   -11496.1  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7682.6235  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6903.8454  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6207.5441  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6108.1186  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -6002.8375  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5871.6242  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5841.5101  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5839.7558  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5839.7512  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -5839.7512  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        843
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        181

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.7
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(38)     =      88.06
Log likelihood  = -5839.7512                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.1378316   .1245991    -1.11   0.269    -.3820413    .1063782
 Theological  |   .0137949    .142205     0.10   0.923    -.2649218    .2925115
        Both  |  -.0000486   .1364031    -0.00   1.000    -.2673937    .2672966
              |
incomp_rel_~f |    .023829   .1034932     0.23   0.818    -.1790139    .2266719
rebel_ext_m~t |   .5255109   .2715897     1.93   0.053     -.006795    1.057817
  incomp_terr |  -.1714916    .106412    -1.61   0.107    -.3800553    .0370721
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.001653   .0122195    -0.14   0.892    -.0256028    .0222968
 vdem_rescale |   .0174035   .0110918     1.57   0.117     -.004336     .039143
vdem_rescal~q |    -.00068   .0019634    -0.35   0.729    -.0045282    .0031683
     rcd_loot |  -.0095226   .0840643    -0.11   0.910    -.1742856    .1552404
    rcd_crime |   .3920696   .0923961     4.24   0.000     .2109764    .5731627
 active_dyads |   -.022529   .0416575    -0.54   0.589    -.1041762    .0591182
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000619   .0000112     5.55   0.000       .00004    .0000838
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2376973   .1790024    -1.33   0.184    -.5885356     .113141
        1992  |   .1318068   .1747882     0.75   0.451    -.2107717    .4743853
        1993  |  -.0387565   .1785763    -0.22   0.828    -.3887596    .3112467
        1994  |  -.0481232   .1786699    -0.27   0.788    -.3983098    .3020634
        1995  |  -.2029363   .1810553    -1.12   0.262    -.5577982    .1519256
        1996  |  -.0191659   .1903007    -0.10   0.920    -.3921485    .3538167
        1997  |   -.124915   .1908961    -0.65   0.513    -.4990645    .2492346
        1998  |  -.0983383   .1841457    -0.53   0.593    -.4592572    .2625806
        1999  |  -.0821675   .1848229    -0.44   0.657    -.4444137    .2800787
        2000  |  -.1060432   .1850043    -0.57   0.567    -.4686449    .2565585
        2001  |  -.3378756   .1859018    -1.82   0.069    -.7022364    .0264852
        2002  |   .0051034    .179396     0.03   0.977    -.3465063     .356713
        2003  |  -.3240591    .193129    -1.68   0.093    -.7025849    .0544667
        2004  |  -.1744511    .191829    -0.91   0.363    -.5504291    .2015268
        2005  |  -.2379765   .2014947    -1.18   0.238    -.6328988    .1569459
        2006  |   -.271607   .1923596    -1.41   0.158    -.6486249    .1054109
        2007  |  -.1393005   .1942498    -0.72   0.473    -.5200232    .2414222
        2008  |  -.1480892   .1912416    -0.77   0.439    -.5229158    .2267374
        2009  |  -.1458626   .1886614    -0.77   0.439    -.5156321    .2239068
        2010  |   -.354437    .198995    -1.78   0.075      -.74446     .035586
        2011  |  -.4574191   .2020152    -2.26   0.024    -.8533616   -.0614766
        2012  |  -.3392796   .2101112    -1.61   0.106    -.7510901    .0725309
        2013  |  -.5250537    .215093    -2.44   0.015    -.9466282   -.1034791
        2014  |  -.2541526   .2031848    -1.25   0.211    -.6523875    .1440823
        2015  |  -.4559078   .2053387    -2.22   0.026    -.8583643   -.0534512
              |
        _cons |   .4860359   .3496549     1.39   0.165     -.199275    1.171347
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0539735   .1186587                     -.2865404    .1785933
        /ln_s |   4.567316   .2008754                      4.173607    4.961024
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9474572   .1124241                      .7508568    1.195534
            s |   96.28532   19.34135                      64.94932    142.7399
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 539.38               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dya
> ds l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -145962.12  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -19440.23  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7844.0171  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6532.7919  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5248.7734  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -4979.618  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood =  -4563.935  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4365.8342  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4358.3779  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4358.3213  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4358.3213  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        782
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        120

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(38)     =      95.53
Log likelihood  = -4358.3213                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.0764489   .1528503    -0.50   0.617      -.37603    .2231322
 Theological  |  -.0331084   .1695459    -0.20   0.845    -.3654122    .2991954
        Both  |  -.0606326   .1616357    -0.38   0.708    -.3774326    .2561675
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .0935648   .1237695     0.76   0.450    -.1490189    .3361485
rebel_ext_m~t |   .2546021   .3575349     0.71   0.476    -.4461535    .9553576
  incomp_terr |  -.0893835    .126027    -0.71   0.478    -.3363919     .157625
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0113905    .015443     0.74   0.461    -.0188772    .0416582
 vdem_rescale |   .0356003    .012351     2.88   0.004     .0113928    .0598079
vdem_rescal~q |   -.000737   .0021511    -0.34   0.732    -.0049531    .0034791
     rcd_loot |  -.0801501    .093466    -0.86   0.391    -.2633402      .10304
    rcd_crime |   .4707528   .1047982     4.49   0.000      .265352    .6761536
 active_dyads |   .0087922   .0470706     0.19   0.852    -.0834644    .1010488
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000504   .0000124     4.06   0.000      .000026    .0000747
              |
         year |
        1991  |   -.262963   .1814872    -1.45   0.147    -.6186715    .0927454
        1992  |   .1045277    .185217     0.56   0.573    -.2584911    .4675464
        1993  |  -.0812402   .1927834    -0.42   0.673    -.4590887    .2966082
        1994  |  -.1044928   .1949227    -0.54   0.592    -.4865342    .2775487
        1995  |  -.2696057   .1933693    -1.39   0.163    -.6486026    .1093912
        1996  |  -.0821413   .2016306    -0.41   0.684      -.47733    .3130474
        1997  |  -.2695807   .2053597    -1.31   0.189    -.6720783     .132917
        1998  |  -.2554584   .2005975    -1.27   0.203    -.6486223    .1377055
        1999  |  -.2518859   .2024191    -1.24   0.213    -.6486201    .1448483
        2000  |  -.2236645   .1982938    -1.13   0.259    -.6123131    .1649842
        2001  |  -.4471632   .1975369    -2.26   0.024    -.8343284    -.059998
        2002  |  -.1177049   .1904332    -0.62   0.537     -.490947    .2555373
        2003  |  -.4423781   .2042458    -2.17   0.030    -.8426925   -.0420637
        2004  |   -.293478   .2006491    -1.46   0.144     -.686743    .0997869
        2005  |  -.3669304   .2106046    -1.74   0.081    -.7797078    .0458471
        2006  |  -.3979657   .2046401    -1.94   0.052     -.799053    .0031215
        2007  |  -.2785578    .207115    -1.34   0.179    -.6844959    .1273802
        2008  |  -.2947904   .2088865    -1.41   0.158    -.7042004    .1146197
        2009  |  -.2498357   .2047041    -1.22   0.222    -.6510484     .151377
        2010  |  -.4955656   .2150482    -2.30   0.021    -.9170524   -.0740788
        2011  |  -.6292149   .2205247    -2.85   0.004    -1.061435   -.1969945
        2012  |  -.5806054   .2265699    -2.56   0.010    -1.024674   -.1365366
        2013  |  -.7856282   .2356121    -3.33   0.001    -1.247419   -.3238371
        2014  |  -.4344644   .2221148    -1.96   0.050    -.8698014    .0008725
        2015  |  -.6701256   .2287174    -2.93   0.003    -1.118404   -.2218477
              |
        _cons |   .2070329   .4338428     0.48   0.633    -.6432833    1.057349
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ****
. * Table A6. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Any Ideological Claim - Monad
> ic *
. ******************************************************************************
> ****
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsole
> te_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1106.8493  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1095.1302  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9717  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1033.1514
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -991.18711
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -961.14938
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -938.89902
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -922.56825
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -911.21733
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -903.23267
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -904.76468

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -903.93493  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -848.35716  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -838.12856  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.79008  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77964  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77964  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77731  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77731  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(74)     =     344.84
Log pseudolikelihood  = -837.77731              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   1.075147   .6854081     1.57   0.117    -.2682281    2.418522
claim_ideol~y |   .5984271   .3699078     1.62   0.106    -.1265788    1.323433
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.710057   .8555228     3.17   0.002     1.033263    4.386851
  incomp_terr |  -.5463508    .428585    -1.27   0.202    -1.386362    .2936603
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0653592   .0319705    -2.04   0.041    -.1280202   -.0026983
 vdem_rescale |  -.0228402    .052551    -0.43   0.664    -.1258383     .080158
vdem_rescal~q |   .0075606   .0078646     0.96   0.336    -.0078537     .022975
 active_dyads |   .0983643   .1314915     0.75   0.454    -.1593543    .3560828
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.099349   1.256148    -0.88   0.381    -3.561354    1.362656
        1952  |  -1.378542    1.41346    -0.98   0.329    -4.148873    1.391789
        1953  |   .0963059   1.342213     0.07   0.943    -2.534384    2.726995
        1954  |  -3.244417   1.564674    -2.07   0.038    -6.311123   -.1777121
        1955  |  -1.473015   2.098778    -0.70   0.483    -5.586544    2.640514
        1956  |  -2.356878   2.276769    -1.04   0.301    -6.819264    2.105508
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.62258   1.828086    -0.89   0.375    -5.205563    1.960402
        1959  |  -2.375708    1.97972    -1.20   0.230    -6.255889    1.504473
        1960  |  -3.274102   1.609616    -2.03   0.042    -6.428892    -.119312
        1961  |  -1.174386   1.483299    -0.79   0.429    -4.081599    1.732827
        1962  |  -.6553724   1.479062    -0.44   0.658    -3.554281    2.243536
        1963  |  -.8012255    1.47599    -0.54   0.587    -3.694113    2.091662
        1964  |  -1.606399   1.317255    -1.22   0.223     -4.18817    .9753731
        1965  |  -1.820499   1.353846    -1.34   0.179    -4.473989    .8329912
        1966  |  -1.625411   1.289715    -1.26   0.208    -4.153206    .9023846
        1967  |  -1.680943   1.270924    -1.32   0.186    -4.171909    .8100222
        1968  |  -1.934691   1.208472    -1.60   0.109    -4.303252    .4338703
        1969  |  -1.645915   1.266798    -1.30   0.194    -4.128793    .8369625
        1970  |  -1.782628   1.242289    -1.43   0.151     -4.21747    .6522142
        1971  |  -.8033979   1.078931    -0.74   0.456    -2.918064    1.311268
        1972  |  -2.557507   1.291632    -1.98   0.048    -5.089059   -.0259547
        1973  |  -3.209358   1.412464    -2.27   0.023    -5.977737   -.4409795
        1974  |  -1.545663   1.343963    -1.15   0.250    -4.179782    1.088456
        1975  |  -1.371378   1.295995    -1.06   0.290    -3.911482    1.168725
        1976  |  -1.142106   1.277949    -0.89   0.371    -3.646841    1.362629
        1977  |  -1.401244   1.264707    -1.11   0.268    -3.880023    1.077536
        1978  |  -.1330515   1.292692    -0.10   0.918    -2.666682    2.400579
        1979  |  -1.832856   1.271469    -1.44   0.149    -4.324889    .6591779
        1980  |   -1.47431   1.241501    -1.19   0.235    -3.907608    .9589881
        1981  |  -1.531618   1.281838    -1.19   0.232    -4.043975    .9807389
        1982  |  -1.017233   1.221378    -0.83   0.405     -3.41109    1.376623
        1983  |   -1.20352   1.254526    -0.96   0.337    -3.662346    1.255305
        1984  |  -.9671201   1.216155    -0.80   0.426     -3.35074      1.4165
        1985  |  -1.259399   1.236763    -1.02   0.309     -3.68341    1.164613
        1986  |  -1.775714   1.261498    -1.41   0.159    -4.248204    .6967763
        1987  |  -1.461064   1.246526    -1.17   0.241     -3.90421    .9820826
        1988  |  -.7306964   1.240037    -0.59   0.556    -3.161125    1.699732
        1989  |  -2.349823   1.264723    -1.86   0.063    -4.828635    .1289883
        1990  |  -2.059472   1.285358    -1.60   0.109    -4.578728     .459784
        1991  |  -2.273518   1.281779    -1.77   0.076    -4.785758    .2387222
        1992  |  -1.504145   1.298223    -1.16   0.247    -4.048616    1.040325
        1993  |  -2.204049   1.303927    -1.69   0.091    -4.759698     .351601
        1994  |  -1.967198    1.37463    -1.43   0.152    -4.661424    .7270276
        1995  |  -2.077759   1.349492    -1.54   0.124    -4.722715    .5671974
        1996  |  -2.234935   1.325633    -1.69   0.092    -4.833128    .3632586
        1997  |  -2.229649   1.296549    -1.72   0.085    -4.770839    .3115417
        1998  |  -1.347102   1.293611    -1.04   0.298    -3.882533     1.18833
        1999  |  -1.384488   1.312347    -1.05   0.291    -3.956642    1.187665
        2000  |  -2.062694   1.318119    -1.56   0.118    -4.646161    .5207717
        2001  |  -2.537043   1.309399    -1.94   0.053    -5.103418    .0293316
        2002  |  -1.850073    1.40607    -1.32   0.188    -4.605919    .9057739
        2003  |  -2.927894   1.638521    -1.79   0.074    -6.139335    .2835478
        2004  |  -1.767537    1.45432    -1.22   0.224    -4.617952    1.082878
        2005  |  -2.556167   1.508311    -1.69   0.090    -5.512403    .4000688
        2006  |  -3.781415   1.358572    -2.78   0.005    -6.444169   -1.118662
        2007  |  -3.416142   1.453535    -2.35   0.019    -6.265018    -.567267
        2008  |  -3.298738   1.315596    -2.51   0.012    -5.877258   -.7202179
        2009  |  -2.998621   1.340217    -2.24   0.025    -5.625398   -.3718437
        2010  |   -3.55708    1.31416    -2.71   0.007    -6.132786    -.981375
        2011  |  -3.008108   1.413304    -2.13   0.033    -5.778132    -.238083
        2012  |  -3.469047   1.520513    -2.28   0.023    -6.449197   -.4888974
        2013  |  -2.997996   1.313585    -2.28   0.022    -5.572575   -.4234173
        2014  |  -2.072242   1.366455    -1.52   0.129    -4.750444    .6059607
        2015  |  -2.822266   1.351675    -2.09   0.037    -5.471501   -.1730309
        2016  |  -3.675576   1.461153    -2.52   0.012    -6.539384   -.8117681
        2017  |   -3.18105   1.416149    -2.25   0.025    -5.956651   -.4054489
              |
        _cons |  -1.870122   1.375982    -1.36   0.174    -4.566997    .8267537
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.002784   .1918866                      1.626693    2.378874
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.722068   .2611642                      2.255443    3.285232
          rho |   .6925219   .0408594                      .6072686     .766388
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i.
> year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1106.8493  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1095.1302  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9717  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1033.1514
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -991.18711
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -961.14938
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -938.89902
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -922.56825
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -911.21733
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -903.23267
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -904.76468

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -903.93493  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -848.35716  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -838.12856  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.79008  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77964  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77964  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77731  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77731  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(74)     =     344.84
Log pseudolikelihood  = -837.77731              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   1.075147   .6854081     1.57   0.117    -.2682281    2.418522
claim_ideol~y |   .5984271   .3699078     1.62   0.106    -.1265788    1.323433
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.710057   .8555228     3.17   0.002     1.033263    4.386851
  incomp_terr |  -.5463508    .428585    -1.27   0.202    -1.386362    .2936603
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0653592   .0319705    -2.04   0.041    -.1280202   -.0026983
 vdem_rescale |  -.0228402    .052551    -0.43   0.664    -.1258383     .080158
vdem_rescal~q |   .0075606   .0078646     0.96   0.336    -.0078537     .022975
 active_dyads |   .0983643   .1314915     0.75   0.454    -.1593543    .3560828
post_cold_war |   -3.18105   1.416149    -2.25   0.025    -5.956651   -.4054489
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.099349   1.256148    -0.88   0.381    -3.561354    1.362656
        1952  |  -1.378542    1.41346    -0.98   0.329    -4.148873    1.391789
        1953  |   .0963059   1.342213     0.07   0.943    -2.534384    2.726995
        1954  |  -3.244417   1.564674    -2.07   0.038    -6.311123   -.1777121
        1955  |  -1.473015   2.098778    -0.70   0.483    -5.586544    2.640514
        1956  |  -2.356878   2.276769    -1.04   0.301    -6.819264    2.105508
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.62258   1.828086    -0.89   0.375    -5.205563    1.960402
        1959  |  -2.375708    1.97972    -1.20   0.230    -6.255889    1.504473
        1960  |  -3.274102   1.609616    -2.03   0.042    -6.428892    -.119312
        1961  |  -1.174386   1.483299    -0.79   0.429    -4.081599    1.732827
        1962  |  -.6553724   1.479062    -0.44   0.658    -3.554281    2.243536
        1963  |  -.8012255    1.47599    -0.54   0.587    -3.694113    2.091662
        1964  |  -1.606399   1.317255    -1.22   0.223     -4.18817    .9753731
        1965  |  -1.820499   1.353846    -1.34   0.179    -4.473989    .8329912
        1966  |  -1.625411   1.289715    -1.26   0.208    -4.153206    .9023846
        1967  |  -1.680943   1.270924    -1.32   0.186    -4.171909    .8100222
        1968  |  -1.934691   1.208472    -1.60   0.109    -4.303252    .4338703
        1969  |  -1.645915   1.266798    -1.30   0.194    -4.128793    .8369625
        1970  |  -1.782628   1.242289    -1.43   0.151     -4.21747    .6522142
        1971  |  -.8033979   1.078931    -0.74   0.456    -2.918064    1.311268
        1972  |  -2.557507   1.291632    -1.98   0.048    -5.089059   -.0259547
        1973  |  -3.209358   1.412464    -2.27   0.023    -5.977737   -.4409795
        1974  |  -1.545663   1.343963    -1.15   0.250    -4.179782    1.088456
        1975  |  -1.371378   1.295995    -1.06   0.290    -3.911482    1.168725
        1976  |  -1.142106   1.277949    -0.89   0.371    -3.646841    1.362629
        1977  |  -1.401244   1.264707    -1.11   0.268    -3.880023    1.077536
        1978  |  -.1330515   1.292692    -0.10   0.918    -2.666682    2.400579
        1979  |  -1.832856   1.271469    -1.44   0.149    -4.324889    .6591779
        1980  |   -1.47431   1.241501    -1.19   0.235    -3.907608    .9589881
        1981  |  -1.531618   1.281838    -1.19   0.232    -4.043975    .9807389
        1982  |  -1.017233   1.221378    -0.83   0.405     -3.41109    1.376623
        1983  |   -1.20352   1.254526    -0.96   0.337    -3.662346    1.255305
        1984  |  -.9671201   1.216155    -0.80   0.426     -3.35074      1.4165
        1985  |  -1.259399   1.236763    -1.02   0.309     -3.68341    1.164613
        1986  |  -1.775714   1.261498    -1.41   0.159    -4.248204    .6967763
        1987  |  -1.461064   1.246526    -1.17   0.241     -3.90421    .9820826
        1988  |  -.7306964   1.240037    -0.59   0.556    -3.161125    1.699732
        1989  |  -2.349823   1.264723    -1.86   0.063    -4.828635    .1289883
        1990  |  -2.059472   1.285358    -1.60   0.109    -4.578728     .459784
        1991  |   .9075321   .9219817     0.98   0.325    -.8995189    2.714583
        1992  |   1.676905   .9292465     1.80   0.071    -.1443852    3.498194
        1993  |   .9770011   .9905563     0.99   0.324    -.9644535    2.918456
        1994  |   1.213852   1.070913     1.13   0.257    -.8850988    3.312802
        1995  |   1.103291   1.013827     1.09   0.276    -.8837739    3.090356
        1996  |   .9461152   1.002677     0.94   0.345    -1.019095    2.911325
        1997  |   .9514013   .9379214     1.01   0.310    -.8868909    2.789694
        1998  |   1.833948    .923036     1.99   0.047      .024831    3.643066
        1999  |   1.796562   .9186577     1.96   0.051    -.0039745    3.597098
        2000  |   1.118355   .9625794     1.16   0.245    -.7682655    3.004976
        2001  |   .6440067   .9521945     0.68   0.499     -1.22226    2.510274
        2002  |   1.330977   1.034492     1.29   0.198    -.6965898    3.358544
        2003  |    .253156   1.420965     0.18   0.859    -2.531884    3.038196
        2004  |   1.413513   1.189635     1.19   0.235    -.9181293    3.745156
        2005  |    .624883   1.109085     0.56   0.573    -1.548883    2.798649
        2006  |  -.6003656   .8376871    -0.72   0.474    -2.242202    1.041471
        2007  |  -.2350924   .8117276    -0.29   0.772    -1.826049    1.355865
        2008  |   -.117688   .8812171    -0.13   0.894    -1.844842    1.609466
        2009  |    .182429   .9777243     0.19   0.852    -1.733875    2.098733
        2010  |  -.3760306   .9052974    -0.42   0.678    -2.150381     1.39832
        2011  |   .1729422     1.0545     0.16   0.870    -1.893839    2.239723
        2012  |  -.2879974   1.221777    -0.24   0.814    -2.682636    2.106641
        2013  |   .1830536   .7681055     0.24   0.812    -1.322406    1.688513
        2014  |   1.108808   .8009564     1.38   0.166    -.4610376    2.678654
        2015  |    .358784    .815883     0.44   0.660    -1.240317    1.957885
        2016  |  -.4945262   .9189682    -0.54   0.590    -2.295671    1.306618
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.870122   1.375982    -1.36   0.174    -4.566997    .8267537
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.002784   .1918866                      1.626693    2.378874
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.722068   .2611642                      2.255443    3.285232
          rho |   .6925219   .0408594                      .6072686     .766388
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(c.rel_aff01 c.claim_ideology) rebel_
> ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_d
> yads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1103.2207  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1090.1935  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.9401  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.9392  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.9392  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1089.9392
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1030.0156
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -989.08793
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -959.67481
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood =  -937.7536
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -921.49064
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -909.84781
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -902.16343
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -903.73431

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -903.20584  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -847.37342  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.06977  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.74355  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.73295  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.73295  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.73077  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.73077  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     392.33
Log pseudolikelihood  = -836.73077              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -2.986348   1.690413    -1.77   0.077    -6.299496    .3267996
    rel_aff01 |   1.015724   .6756277     1.50   0.133    -.3084823     2.33993
claim_ideol~y |   .9309982   .4877143     1.91   0.056    -.0249042    1.886901
              |
post_cold_war#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |   .1315919   .9182501     0.14   0.886    -1.668145    1.931329
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.7072728   .6627804    -1.07   0.286    -2.006298    .5917529
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.696815   .8490066     3.18   0.001     1.032793    4.360838
  incomp_terr |  -.5326405   .4264558    -1.25   0.212    -1.368478    .3031975
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0646777   .0321098    -2.01   0.044    -.1276117   -.0017436
 vdem_rescale |  -.0224856   .0508867    -0.44   0.659    -.1222216    .0772504
vdem_rescal~q |   .0077085   .0078357     0.98   0.325    -.0076492    .0230662
 active_dyads |   .0893471   .1303742     0.69   0.493    -.1661817    .3448759
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.072303   1.247517    -0.86   0.390     -3.51739    1.372785
        1952  |  -1.344426   1.412671    -0.95   0.341    -4.113211     1.42436
        1953  |   .0798508   1.319581     0.06   0.952     -2.50648    2.666182
        1954  |  -3.342343   1.568923    -2.13   0.033    -6.417376   -.2673102
        1955  |  -1.536641   2.164901    -0.71   0.478     -5.77977    2.706487
        1956  |   -2.43836   2.304788    -1.06   0.290    -6.955662    2.078941
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.70444    1.84323    -0.92   0.355    -5.317104    1.908225
        1959  |  -2.447876   1.997526    -1.23   0.220    -6.362955    1.467204
        1960  |  -3.362797   1.598552    -2.10   0.035    -6.495901   -.2296933
        1961  |  -1.269874   1.485304    -0.85   0.393    -4.181016    1.641268
        1962  |  -.7640715   1.479959    -0.52   0.606    -3.664737    2.136594
        1963  |  -.9167113   1.467415    -0.62   0.532    -3.792791    1.959369
        1964  |  -1.721908   1.307644    -1.32   0.188    -4.284843     .841027
        1965  |  -1.947831   1.340549    -1.45   0.146    -4.575259    .6795974
        1966  |  -1.748126   1.273104    -1.37   0.170    -4.243363    .7471113
        1967  |  -1.800349     1.2529    -1.44   0.151    -4.255987    .6552896
        1968  |  -2.054423   1.192648    -1.72   0.085    -4.391971     .283124
        1969  |  -1.766522   1.246917    -1.42   0.157    -4.210435    .6773899
        1970  |  -1.905674   1.223209    -1.56   0.119     -4.30312    .4917716
        1971  |  -.9172382   1.059426    -0.87   0.387    -2.993675    1.159198
        1972  |  -2.682343   1.256689    -2.13   0.033    -5.145409    -.219278
        1973  |   -3.35403   1.384641    -2.42   0.015    -6.067877   -.6401827
        1974  |  -1.666355   1.310767    -1.27   0.204    -4.235411    .9027014
        1975  |  -1.499845   1.262955    -1.19   0.235    -3.975192    .9755015
        1976  |  -1.266693   1.249816    -1.01   0.311    -3.716288    1.182901
        1977  |  -1.527422   1.236591    -1.24   0.217    -3.951095     .896251
        1978  |  -.2599597   1.264205    -0.21   0.837    -2.737756    2.217837
        1979  |  -1.973283   1.246739    -1.58   0.113    -4.416847    .4702817
        1980  |  -1.616572   1.219842    -1.33   0.185    -4.007419    .7742742
        1981  |  -1.678348   1.260995    -1.33   0.183    -4.149852    .7931562
        1982  |   -1.16359   1.196024    -0.97   0.331    -3.507753    1.180573
        1983  |  -1.347794   1.233214    -1.09   0.274    -3.764849     1.06926
        1984  |  -1.114248   1.196717    -0.93   0.352    -3.459771    1.231275
        1985  |  -1.412822   1.207088    -1.17   0.242    -3.778671     .953026
        1986  |  -1.920661   1.245291    -1.54   0.123    -4.361387    .5200644
        1987  |  -1.606309   1.224857    -1.31   0.190    -4.006985     .794366
        1988  |   -.883304   1.214425    -0.73   0.467    -3.263534    1.496926
        1989  |  -2.517153    1.24161    -2.03   0.043    -4.950664   -.0836429
        1990  |  -2.175059   1.265934    -1.72   0.086    -4.656245    .3061267
        1991  |   .9505091    .918812     1.03   0.301    -.8503293    2.751348
        1992  |   1.679419   .9215874     1.82   0.068    -.1268591    3.485697
        1993  |   .9940441   .9867826     1.01   0.314    -.9400143    2.928103
        1994  |   1.224762   1.062815     1.15   0.249    -.8583165     3.30784
        1995  |   1.129066   1.002204     1.13   0.260    -.8352188     3.09335
        1996  |   .9896887   .9903584     1.00   0.318    -.9513781    2.930755
        1997  |    .998813   .9330352     1.07   0.284    -.8299024    2.827528
        1998  |   1.873446   .9161829     2.04   0.041     .0777606    3.669132
        1999  |   1.861006   .9049853     2.06   0.040     .0872671    3.634744
        2000  |   1.165372   .9675961     1.20   0.228    -.7310811    3.061826
        2001  |   .6915141   .9522073     0.73   0.468    -1.174778    2.557806
        2002  |   1.379045   1.027775     1.34   0.180    -.6353568    3.393448
        2003  |   .2976198   1.415721     0.21   0.833    -2.477142    3.072382
        2004  |   1.460753   1.187636     1.23   0.219    -.8669721    3.788477
        2005  |   .6705653   1.098941     0.61   0.542    -1.483319     2.82445
        2006  |  -.5585954    .831628    -0.67   0.502    -2.188556    1.071366
        2007  |   -.186809   .8114668    -0.23   0.818    -1.777255    1.403637
        2008  |   -.082443   .8756002    -0.09   0.925    -1.798588    1.633702
        2009  |    .213914   .9766202     0.22   0.827    -1.700226    2.128054
        2010  |  -.3319541   .8978072    -0.37   0.712    -2.091624    1.427716
        2011  |   .1968569   1.047547     0.19   0.851    -1.856297     2.25001
        2012  |  -.2797502   1.213565    -0.23   0.818    -2.658295    2.098794
        2013  |   .1989016   .7583105     0.26   0.793     -1.28736    1.685163
        2014  |   1.115223   .7937196     1.41   0.160    -.4404389    2.670885
        2015  |   .3762055    .803402     0.47   0.640    -1.198433    1.950844
        2016  |  -.4954151   .9212476    -0.54   0.591    -2.301027    1.310197
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.905247   1.375624    -1.39   0.166    -4.601421    .7909266
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.999076   .1948094                      1.617257    2.380896
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.717027   .2646512                      2.244827    3.288554
          rho |    .691732   .0415409                       .605016    .7667497
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr sid
> e_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_b
> est i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -9927549.7  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6846708.4  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5787570.3  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -3632194.6  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1958126.3  (backed up)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -1530771.4  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -495602.89  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -435859.66  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -433774.05  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -433767.56  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -433767.56  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334077.29  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6398.0551  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6281.9802  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6264.1238  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6200.5732  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6153.2154  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6126.7801  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6126.3287  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6126.3281  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -93472.109  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -11573.239  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -8021.2575  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6931.8529  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6217.1024  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6037.9601  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5927.1684  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5871.8605  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5848.3825  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5837.6756  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5837.5493  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -5837.5493  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        843
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        181

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.7
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(36)     =      91.31
Log likelihood  = -5837.5493                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .2698041   .1904588     1.42   0.157    -.1034882    .6430965
claim_ideol~y |  -.2434591   .1031356    -2.36   0.018    -.4456011   -.0413171
rebel_ext_m~t |   .5360563   .2685451     2.00   0.046     .0097176    1.062395
  incomp_terr |  -.2211497   .1054574    -2.10   0.036    -.4278425   -.0144569
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0011042   .0121874     0.09   0.928    -.0227827    .0249911
 vdem_rescale |   .0144724   .0106028     1.36   0.172    -.0063087    .0352535
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0007766   .0019157    -0.41   0.685    -.0045313     .002978
     rcd_loot |  -.0298333    .083405    -0.36   0.721    -.1933041    .1336374
    rcd_crime |   .3965981   .0913728     4.34   0.000     .2175107    .5756855
 active_dyads |  -.0055664   .0400444    -0.14   0.889     -.084052    .0729193
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000714   .0000121     5.90   0.000     .0000477    .0000951
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2230434   .1761148    -1.27   0.205     -.568222    .1221352
        1992  |   .1399491   .1732008     0.81   0.419    -.1995181    .4794164
        1993  |  -.0405336    .177008    -0.23   0.819    -.3874629    .3063956
        1994  |  -.0049532   .1754354    -0.03   0.977    -.3488004    .3388939
        1995  |  -.1950611   .1801349    -1.08   0.279     -.548119    .1579968
        1996  |   .0332512   .1869581     0.18   0.859      -.33318    .3996825
        1997  |  -.0851513   .1897545    -0.45   0.654    -.4570632    .2867606
        1998  |   -.071497   .1822464    -0.39   0.695    -.4286934    .2856995
        1999  |  -.0525139    .182205    -0.29   0.773    -.4096292    .3046013
        2000  |  -.0666003   .1828425    -0.36   0.716    -.4249651    .2917644
        2001  |  -.2867797   .1828285    -1.57   0.117    -.6451169    .0715575
        2002  |   .0475273   .1765543     0.27   0.788    -.2985128    .3935674
        2003  |   -.276035   .1909658    -1.45   0.148    -.6503211     .098251
        2004  |   -.105488   .1886945    -0.56   0.576    -.4753225    .2643464
        2005  |  -.1489897   .1973825    -0.75   0.450    -.5358522    .2378728
        2006  |  -.2118545   .1902201    -1.11   0.265    -.5846791    .1609701
        2007  |  -.0738226   .1909129    -0.39   0.699     -.448005    .3003598
        2008  |  -.0947314   .1877454    -0.50   0.614    -.4627056    .2732427
        2009  |  -.0783521   .1857008    -0.42   0.673    -.4423189    .2856147
        2010  |   -.290604   .1934053    -1.50   0.133    -.6696714    .0884634
        2011  |  -.4065124   .1986061    -2.05   0.041    -.7957732   -.0172516
        2012  |  -.2859836   .2079759    -1.38   0.169     -.693609    .1216417
        2013  |  -.4754867    .213283    -2.23   0.026    -.8935138   -.0574596
        2014  |  -.2190829    .201385    -1.09   0.277    -.6137902    .1756244
        2015  |  -.4278976   .2032009    -2.11   0.035    -.8261639   -.0296312
              |
        _cons |    .256733   .3852786     0.67   0.505    -.4983992    1.011865
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0799149   .1177637                     -.3107275    .1508978
        /ln_s |   4.487609   .2015788                      4.092522    4.882696
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9231949   .1087189                      .7329135    1.162878
            s |   88.90859   17.92208                      59.89073     131.986
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 577.56               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr sid
> e_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_b
> est i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -175415.01  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -11522.059  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7012.8833  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6129.0671  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5297.0261  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4573.0599  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4360.8583  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4353.7035  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood =  -4353.634  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood =  -4353.634  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        782
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        120

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(36)     =     105.95
Log likelihood  =  -4353.634                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |    .372991   .2443172     1.53   0.127     -.105862     .851844
claim_ideol~y |  -.4146564   .1301659    -3.19   0.001    -.6697767    -.159536
rebel_ext_m~t |   .2762187   .3685762     0.75   0.454    -.4461775    .9986148
  incomp_terr |  -.1866734   .1263677    -1.48   0.140    -.4343495    .0610028
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0176937   .0154776     1.14   0.253    -.0126418    .0480292
 vdem_rescale |   .0353892   .0119345     2.97   0.003      .011998    .0587805
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0009149    .002084    -0.44   0.661    -.0049995    .0031697
     rcd_loot |  -.1127288   .0896266    -1.26   0.208    -.2883938    .0629362
    rcd_crime |   .4827448   .1021706     4.72   0.000     .2824941    .6829956
 active_dyads |   .0166464   .0448707     0.37   0.711    -.0712985    .1045914
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000643   .0000138     4.67   0.000     .0000373    .0000912
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2851093   .1769606    -1.61   0.107    -.6319457    .0617271
        1992  |   .0522269   .1829065     0.29   0.775    -.3062632    .4107171
        1993  |   -.169459   .1915877    -0.88   0.376    -.5449639     .206046
        1994  |  -.1242565   .1902097    -0.65   0.514    -.4970608    .2485477
        1995  |  -.3343857   .1922815    -1.74   0.082    -.7112506    .0424792
        1996  |  -.1210499   .1983137    -0.61   0.542    -.5097375    .2676377
        1997  |  -.2871709   .2018318    -1.42   0.155     -.682754    .1084121
        1998  |   -.280678   .1962546    -1.43   0.153      -.66533     .103974
        1999  |  -.2871479   .1982906    -1.45   0.148    -.6757903    .1014945
        2000  |  -.2425833   .1942362    -1.25   0.212    -.6232792    .1381126
        2001  |  -.4563968   .1928428    -2.37   0.018    -.8343616   -.0784319
        2002  |  -.1225958   .1857528    -0.66   0.509    -.4866646    .2414729
        2003  |  -.4374484   .2002078    -2.18   0.029    -.8298485   -.0450483
        2004  |  -.2701451   .1953223    -1.38   0.167    -.6529697    .1126795
        2005  |  -.3390126   .2044587    -1.66   0.097    -.7397443    .0617191
        2006  |  -.3940984   .2006962    -1.96   0.050    -.7874557    -.000741
        2007  |  -.2683179   .2018727    -1.33   0.184    -.6639811    .1273453
        2008  |  -.2981615   .2024147    -1.47   0.141     -.694887    .0985641
        2009  |  -.2550551    .198668    -1.28   0.199    -.6444372    .1343269
        2010  |   -.496636   .2078398    -2.39   0.017    -.9039944   -.0892775
        2011  |  -.6594563   .2167737    -3.04   0.002    -1.084325   -.2345875
        2012  |  -.5937811   .2234574    -2.66   0.008     -1.03175   -.1558128
        2013  |  -.7936536   .2320876    -3.42   0.001    -1.248537   -.3387702
        2014  |  -.4560625   .2185215    -2.09   0.037    -.8843567   -.0277682
        2015  |  -.6853519   .2241648    -3.06   0.002    -1.124707   -.2459969
              |
        _cons |   .0499197   .4733779     0.11   0.916    -.8778839    .9777233
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> **********
. * Table A7. Determinants of Conflict Intensity – Types of Ideological Claims –
>  Monadic *
. ******************************************************************************
> **********
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support 
> incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if o
> bsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1101.9955  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.6359  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4651  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1028.6056
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -987.51321
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -958.19275
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -936.49286
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -920.37233
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -909.28467
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -902.07474
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -903.53249

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -902.32298  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -848.16518  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.63867  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.34891  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.33947  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.33933  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -837.3378  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -837.3378  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(75)     =     357.77
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -837.3378              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   1.028005   .6949091     1.48   0.139     -.333992    2.390002
Theologica..  |   1.955699   .7842346     2.49   0.013     .4186278    3.492771
              |
  claim_other |   .3232084   .4116092     0.79   0.432    -.4835308    1.129948
rebel_ext_m~t |    2.72862   .8448868     3.23   0.001     1.072672    4.384567
  incomp_terr |  -.5856611   .4308315    -1.36   0.174    -1.430075    .2587532
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0632397   .0315464    -2.00   0.045    -.1250695   -.0014098
 vdem_rescale |  -.0246605   .0528046    -0.47   0.640    -.1281556    .0788347
vdem_rescal~q |   .0073471   .0079188     0.93   0.354    -.0081735    .0228677
 active_dyads |   .0760996   .1325127     0.57   0.566    -.1836206    .3358197
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.135012   1.252601    -0.91   0.365    -3.590064    1.320041
        1952  |  -1.419466   1.400428    -1.01   0.311    -4.164254    1.325323
        1953  |   .0669193   1.333668     0.05   0.960    -2.547022    2.680861
        1954  |  -3.165821   1.548748    -2.04   0.041    -6.201311   -.1303298
        1955  |  -1.440269   2.046159    -0.70   0.482    -5.450668    2.570129
        1956  |  -2.306048    2.25132    -1.02   0.306    -6.718554    2.106457
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.578683   1.809736    -0.87   0.383      -5.1257    1.968334
        1959  |  -2.334254   1.958698    -1.19   0.233    -6.173231    1.504724
        1960  |  -3.219611   1.609315    -2.00   0.045     -6.37381   -.0654116
        1961  |  -1.143754   1.479025    -0.77   0.439    -4.042589    1.755081
        1962  |  -.6102145   1.475526    -0.41   0.679    -3.502192    2.281763
        1963  |   -.747728   1.476913    -0.51   0.613    -3.642424    2.146968
        1964  |  -1.570017   1.321651    -1.19   0.235    -4.160404    1.020371
        1965  |  -1.771553   1.358771    -1.30   0.192    -4.434695    .8915886
        1966  |  -1.582173   1.295614    -1.22   0.222     -4.12153     .957184
        1967  |  -1.642775   1.279272    -1.28   0.199    -4.150102    .8645517
        1968  |   -1.89886   1.223404    -1.55   0.121    -4.296688    .4989686
        1969  |  -1.602508   1.279133    -1.25   0.210    -4.109563     .904547
        1970  |  -1.737511   1.258194    -1.38   0.167    -4.203525    .7285034
        1971  |  -.7722561   1.089861    -0.71   0.479    -2.908344    1.363831
        1972  |  -2.531178    1.30884    -1.93   0.053    -5.096458    .0341015
        1973  |  -3.169349   1.428276    -2.22   0.026    -5.968718   -.3699806
        1974  |  -1.527998   1.353973    -1.13   0.259    -4.181736    1.125741
        1975  |  -1.345202   1.305439    -1.03   0.303    -3.903816    1.213412
        1976  |  -1.114062    1.28698    -0.87   0.387    -3.636497    1.408372
        1977  |  -1.366843   1.273684    -1.07   0.283    -3.863219    1.129532
        1978  |  -.0995431   1.299561    -0.08   0.939    -2.646635    2.447549
        1979  |  -1.808353   1.280012    -1.41   0.158    -4.317131    .7004246
        1980  |  -1.455674   1.248118    -1.17   0.243     -3.90194    .9905913
        1981  |  -1.507268   1.284012    -1.17   0.240    -4.023886    1.009349
        1982  |  -.9975828   1.227337    -0.81   0.416    -3.403119    1.407953
        1983  |  -1.183349   1.255947    -0.94   0.346     -3.64496    1.278262
        1984  |  -.9450397   1.219876    -0.77   0.439    -3.335952    1.445873
        1985  |  -1.240185   1.238951    -1.00   0.317    -3.668485    1.188116
        1986  |  -1.758781   1.267931    -1.39   0.165    -4.243881    .7263194
        1987  |  -1.446538   1.249686    -1.16   0.247    -3.895876    1.002801
        1988  |  -.7138143   1.247078    -0.57   0.567    -3.158042    1.730413
        1989  |  -2.344765   1.271524    -1.84   0.065    -4.836905    .1473751
        1990  |  -2.046672   1.292749    -1.58   0.113    -4.580413    .4870692
        1991  |   -2.27245    1.28865    -1.76   0.078    -4.798158    .2532575
        1992  |  -1.512759   1.304134    -1.16   0.246    -4.068814    1.043297
        1993  |  -2.225126    1.30931    -1.70   0.089    -4.791326    .3410745
        1994  |  -1.980706   1.378783    -1.44   0.151    -4.683072    .7216597
        1995  |  -2.084455   1.357104    -1.54   0.125    -4.744331    .5754198
        1996  |  -2.239324    1.33504    -1.68   0.093    -4.855955    .3773067
        1997  |  -2.246028   1.301543    -1.73   0.084    -4.797005    .3049494
        1998  |  -1.375683   1.299798    -1.06   0.290    -3.923239    1.171874
        1999  |   -1.42574   1.321852    -1.08   0.281    -4.016523    1.165042
        2000  |  -2.097621   1.324784    -1.58   0.113     -4.69415    .4989086
        2001  |  -2.563677    1.31859    -1.94   0.052    -5.148065    .0207111
        2002  |  -1.880511   1.413849    -1.33   0.183    -4.651605    .8905819
        2003  |  -2.967425   1.647057    -1.80   0.072    -6.195598    .2607475
        2004  |  -1.828233   1.463691    -1.25   0.212    -4.697014    1.040549
        2005  |  -2.600506   1.520922    -1.71   0.087    -5.581458    .3804466
        2006  |  -3.830285   1.367671    -2.80   0.005    -6.510871   -1.149699
        2007  |  -3.482869   1.460746    -2.38   0.017    -6.345879   -.6198583
        2008  |   -3.36366   1.321194    -2.55   0.011    -5.953153   -.7741676
        2009  |  -3.060149    1.34933    -2.27   0.023    -5.704787    -.415511
        2010  |  -3.628324   1.312647    -2.76   0.006    -6.201065   -1.055583
        2011  |  -3.041544    1.41683    -2.15   0.032     -5.81848   -.2646092
        2012  |  -3.543525   1.523547    -2.33   0.020    -6.529623   -.5574277
        2013  |  -3.073272   1.314766    -2.34   0.019    -5.650166   -.4963785
        2014  |  -2.140918   1.367514    -1.57   0.117    -4.821198    .5393607
        2015  |  -2.884907   1.353927    -2.13   0.033    -5.538556   -.2312587
        2016  |  -3.751249   1.474171    -2.54   0.011    -6.640571   -.8619273
        2017  |  -3.253942   1.422534    -2.29   0.022    -6.042058   -.4658266
              |
        _cons |  -1.766894    1.38102    -1.28   0.201    -4.473642     .939855
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.986062   .1907109                      1.612276    2.359849
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.699404   .2574029                      2.239243    3.254128
          rho |   .6889499    .040869                      .6038249    .7629644
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support 
> incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_w
> ar i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1101.9955  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.6359  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4651  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1028.6056
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -987.51321
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -958.19275
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -936.49286
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -920.37233
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -909.28467
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -902.07474
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -903.53249

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -902.32298  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -848.16518  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.63867  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.34891  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.33947  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.33933  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -837.3378  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -837.3378  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(75)     =     357.77
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -837.3378              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   1.028005   .6949091     1.48   0.139     -.333992    2.390002
Theologica..  |   1.955699   .7842346     2.49   0.013     .4186278    3.492771
              |
  claim_other |   .3232084   .4116092     0.79   0.432    -.4835308    1.129948
rebel_ext_m~t |    2.72862   .8448868     3.23   0.001     1.072672    4.384567
  incomp_terr |  -.5856611   .4308315    -1.36   0.174    -1.430075    .2587532
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0632397   .0315464    -2.00   0.045    -.1250695   -.0014098
 vdem_rescale |  -.0246605   .0528046    -0.47   0.640    -.1281556    .0788347
vdem_rescal~q |   .0073471   .0079188     0.93   0.354    -.0081735    .0228677
 active_dyads |   .0760996   .1325127     0.57   0.566    -.1836206    .3358197
post_cold_war |  -3.253942   1.422534    -2.29   0.022    -6.042058   -.4658266
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.135012   1.252601    -0.91   0.365    -3.590064    1.320041
        1952  |  -1.419466   1.400428    -1.01   0.311    -4.164254    1.325323
        1953  |   .0669193   1.333668     0.05   0.960    -2.547022    2.680861
        1954  |  -3.165821   1.548748    -2.04   0.041    -6.201311   -.1303298
        1955  |  -1.440269   2.046159    -0.70   0.482    -5.450668    2.570129
        1956  |  -2.306048    2.25132    -1.02   0.306    -6.718554    2.106457
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.578683   1.809736    -0.87   0.383      -5.1257    1.968334
        1959  |  -2.334254   1.958698    -1.19   0.233    -6.173231    1.504724
        1960  |  -3.219611   1.609315    -2.00   0.045     -6.37381   -.0654116
        1961  |  -1.143754   1.479025    -0.77   0.439    -4.042589    1.755081
        1962  |  -.6102145   1.475526    -0.41   0.679    -3.502192    2.281763
        1963  |   -.747728   1.476913    -0.51   0.613    -3.642424    2.146968
        1964  |  -1.570017   1.321651    -1.19   0.235    -4.160404    1.020371
        1965  |  -1.771553   1.358771    -1.30   0.192    -4.434695    .8915886
        1966  |  -1.582173   1.295614    -1.22   0.222     -4.12153     .957184
        1967  |  -1.642775   1.279272    -1.28   0.199    -4.150102    .8645517
        1968  |   -1.89886   1.223404    -1.55   0.121    -4.296688    .4989686
        1969  |  -1.602508   1.279133    -1.25   0.210    -4.109563     .904547
        1970  |  -1.737511   1.258194    -1.38   0.167    -4.203525    .7285034
        1971  |  -.7722561   1.089861    -0.71   0.479    -2.908344    1.363831
        1972  |  -2.531178    1.30884    -1.93   0.053    -5.096458    .0341015
        1973  |  -3.169349   1.428276    -2.22   0.026    -5.968718   -.3699806
        1974  |  -1.527998   1.353973    -1.13   0.259    -4.181736    1.125741
        1975  |  -1.345202   1.305439    -1.03   0.303    -3.903816    1.213412
        1976  |  -1.114062    1.28698    -0.87   0.387    -3.636497    1.408372
        1977  |  -1.366843   1.273684    -1.07   0.283    -3.863219    1.129532
        1978  |  -.0995431   1.299561    -0.08   0.939    -2.646635    2.447549
        1979  |  -1.808353   1.280012    -1.41   0.158    -4.317131    .7004246
        1980  |  -1.455674   1.248118    -1.17   0.243     -3.90194    .9905913
        1981  |  -1.507268   1.284012    -1.17   0.240    -4.023886    1.009349
        1982  |  -.9975828   1.227337    -0.81   0.416    -3.403119    1.407953
        1983  |  -1.183349   1.255947    -0.94   0.346     -3.64496    1.278262
        1984  |  -.9450397   1.219876    -0.77   0.439    -3.335952    1.445873
        1985  |  -1.240185   1.238951    -1.00   0.317    -3.668485    1.188116
        1986  |  -1.758781   1.267931    -1.39   0.165    -4.243881    .7263194
        1987  |  -1.446538   1.249686    -1.16   0.247    -3.895876    1.002801
        1988  |  -.7138143   1.247078    -0.57   0.567    -3.158042    1.730413
        1989  |  -2.344765   1.271524    -1.84   0.065    -4.836905    .1473751
        1990  |  -2.046672   1.292749    -1.58   0.113    -4.580413    .4870692
        1991  |   .9814922   .9249604     1.06   0.289    -.8313968    2.794381
        1992  |   1.741184   .9256803     1.88   0.060    -.0731164    3.555484
        1993  |   1.028817   .9860595     1.04   0.297    -.9038246    2.961458
        1994  |   1.273236   1.064643     1.20   0.232     -.813426    3.359899
        1995  |   1.169487    1.01397     1.15   0.249    -.8178583    3.156833
        1996  |   1.014618   1.002712     1.01   0.312    -.9506609    2.979897
        1997  |   1.007915    .936816     1.08   0.282    -.8282111     2.84404
        1998  |    1.87826   .9232291     2.03   0.042     .0687641    3.687756
        1999  |   1.828202   .9166188     1.99   0.046     .0316624    3.624742
        2000  |   1.156322   .9620824     1.20   0.229    -.7293252    3.041969
        2001  |   .6902654   .9566786     0.72   0.471     -1.18479    2.565321
        2002  |   1.373431   1.031401     1.33   0.183    -.6480768    3.394939
        2003  |   .2865172    1.41923     0.20   0.840    -2.495123    3.068157
        2004  |    1.42571   1.189005     1.20   0.230     -.904698    3.756118
        2005  |   .6534366   1.117002     0.58   0.559    -1.535847     2.84272
        2006  |  -.5763424   .8474252    -0.68   0.496    -2.237265     1.08458
        2007  |  -.2289263   .8154794    -0.28   0.779    -1.827237    1.369384
        2008  |  -.1097176   .8860406    -0.12   0.901    -1.846325     1.62689
        2009  |   .1937935    .986037     0.20   0.844    -1.738804    2.126391
        2010  |  -.3743817   .9114009    -0.41   0.681    -2.160695    1.411931
        2011  |    .212398   1.060023     0.20   0.841    -1.865208    2.290004
        2012  |   -.289583   1.231111    -0.24   0.814    -2.702516     2.12335
        2013  |   .1806701   .7747013     0.23   0.816    -1.337717    1.699057
        2014  |   1.113024   .8093626     1.38   0.169    -.4732975    2.699346
        2015  |    .369035   .8253856     0.45   0.655    -1.248691    1.986761
        2016  |  -.4973064   .9233835    -0.54   0.590    -2.307105    1.312492
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.766894    1.38102    -1.28   0.201    -4.473642     .939855
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.986062   .1907109                      1.612276    2.359849
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.699404   .2574029                      2.239243    3.254128
          rho |   .6889499    .040869                      .6038249    .7629644
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.rel_claim_types c.claim_other) reb
> el_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq activ
> e_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1097.3166  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.1161  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1082.8481  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1082.8471  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1082.8471  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1082.8471
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1023.9314
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -983.96085
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood =   -955.335
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -934.00447
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -918.06167
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -906.71032
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -900.05713
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -901.22559

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -900.50037  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -846.10175  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.31535  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.02709  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.01138  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.01138  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.00621  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.00621  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(78)     =     419.48
Log pseudolikelihood  = -835.00621              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.081206    1.68784    -1.83   0.068    -6.389313       .2269
              |
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .9028282   .6819599     1.32   0.186    -.4337886    2.239445
Theologica..  |   2.916657   .9868497     2.96   0.003     .9824673    4.850847
              |
  claim_other |   .6209956    .509005     1.22   0.222    -.3766359    1.618627
              |
post_cold_war#|
rel_claim_t~s |
           1 #|
Religious ..  |   .2238407   .9060509     0.25   0.805    -1.551986    1.999668
           1 #|
Theologica..  |   -1.31725   1.145081    -1.15   0.250    -3.561568    .9270672
              |
post_cold_war#|
c.claim_other |
           1  |   -.712793   .7486401    -0.95   0.341    -2.180101    .7545146
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.714749   .8283628     3.28   0.001     1.091188     4.33831
  incomp_terr |  -.5860303   .4269929    -1.37   0.170    -1.422921    .2508604
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0610039   .0315212    -1.94   0.053    -.1227843    .0007765
 vdem_rescale |  -.0236205   .0515562    -0.46   0.647    -.1246687    .0774277
vdem_rescal~q |   .0071809   .0078701     0.91   0.362    -.0082443    .0226061
 active_dyads |    .009768   .1219214     0.08   0.936    -.2291936    .2487296
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.127207   1.233877    -0.91   0.361    -3.545561    1.291146
        1952  |  -1.402514   1.386609    -1.01   0.312    -4.120218    1.315191
        1953  |  -.0178657   1.281599    -0.01   0.989    -2.529754    2.494023
        1954  |  -3.272484   1.544599    -2.12   0.034    -6.299842   -.2451259
        1955  |  -1.520493   2.102713    -0.72   0.470    -5.641734    2.600748
        1956  |  -2.408399   2.271937    -1.06   0.289    -6.861315    2.044517
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.691077   1.814601    -0.93   0.351    -5.247629    1.865475
        1959  |  -2.431372   1.969682    -1.23   0.217    -6.291878    1.429134
        1960  |  -3.312967     1.5956    -2.08   0.038    -6.440286   -.1856481
        1961  |  -1.266651   1.473206    -0.86   0.390    -4.154081    1.620779
        1962  |  -.7323687   1.471067    -0.50   0.619    -3.615607     2.15087
        1963  |  -.8604299   1.462993    -0.59   0.556    -3.727844    2.006984
        1964  |  -1.696918   1.304911    -1.30   0.193    -4.254496    .8606604
        1965  |  -1.907271   1.335666    -1.43   0.153    -4.525129    .7105862
        1966  |  -1.706966   1.270122    -1.34   0.179    -4.196358     .782427
        1967  |  -1.771083   1.252516    -1.41   0.157     -4.22597    .6838033
        1968  |  -2.029952   1.196001    -1.70   0.090    -4.374071    .3141664
        1969  |  -1.719472   1.246624    -1.38   0.168    -4.162809    .7238656
        1970  |  -1.851656   1.228216    -1.51   0.132    -4.258916    .5556035
        1971  |  -.8870486   1.063248    -0.83   0.404    -2.970975    1.196878
        1972  |  -2.670381   1.264505    -2.11   0.035    -5.148765   -.1919975
        1973  |  -3.322819   1.386096    -2.40   0.017    -6.039517   -.6061218
        1974  |  -1.662931   1.310604    -1.27   0.205    -4.231667    .9058045
        1975  |  -1.481491   1.262765    -1.17   0.241    -3.956465    .9934836
        1976  |  -1.248026   1.251501    -1.00   0.319    -3.700923    1.204871
        1977  |  -1.490182    1.23667    -1.20   0.228    -3.914011     .933646
        1978  |  -.2292225   1.263915    -0.18   0.856    -2.706451    2.248006
        1979  |  -1.972462   1.249531    -1.58   0.114    -4.421497    .4765738
        1980  |  -1.637285   1.221136    -1.34   0.180    -4.030668    .7560983
        1981  |  -1.683486   1.259527    -1.34   0.181    -4.152113     .785142
        1982  |  -1.167402   1.193928    -0.98   0.328    -3.507459    1.172655
        1983  |  -1.348707   1.227961    -1.10   0.272    -3.755466    1.058051
        1984  |  -1.100348   1.191916    -0.92   0.356     -3.43646    1.235764
        1985  |  -1.411788   1.201197    -1.18   0.240     -3.76609    .9425152
        1986  |   -1.92688   1.243664    -1.55   0.121    -4.364417    .5106565
        1987  |   -1.61821   1.222518    -1.32   0.186    -4.014301    .7778806
        1988  |  -.9022966    1.21558    -0.74   0.458    -3.284789    1.480196
        1989  |  -2.587227    1.25423    -2.06   0.039    -5.045472   -.1289824
        1990  |  -2.220566    1.28243    -1.73   0.083    -4.734082    .2929504
        1991  |   1.067398   .9227951     1.16   0.247    -.7412475    2.876043
        1992  |   1.760294   .9163338     1.92   0.055    -.0356875    3.556275
        1993  |    1.05319   .9839267     1.07   0.284    -.8752704    2.981651
        1994  |   1.290771   1.049805     1.23   0.219    -.7668094    3.348352
        1995  |   1.212295   .9979502     1.21   0.224    -.7436516    3.168241
        1996  |    1.08943   .9845818     1.11   0.269    -.8403145    3.019175
        1997  |   1.056051   .9321797     1.13   0.257    -.7709875     2.88309
        1998  |    1.92256    .918852     2.09   0.036     .1216428    3.723476
        1999  |   1.889456    .899413     2.10   0.036     .1266388    3.652273
        2000  |   1.204607   .9743544     1.24   0.216    -.7050921    3.114307
        2001  |    .734938     .96235     0.76   0.445    -1.151233    2.621109
        2002  |   1.428033   1.031473     1.38   0.166    -.5936165    3.449683
        2003  |   .3429325   1.414024     0.24   0.808    -2.428503    3.114368
        2004  |   1.485769   1.187557     1.25   0.211    -.8417991    3.813338
        2005  |   .6970803   1.105987     0.63   0.529    -1.470615    2.864775
        2006  |  -.5211804   .8465819    -0.62   0.538     -2.18045     1.13809
        2007  |  -.1731437    .815324    -0.21   0.832    -1.771149    1.424862
        2008  |  -.0714823   .8843871    -0.08   0.936    -1.804849    1.661884
        2009  |   .2223377   .9928233     0.22   0.823     -1.72356    2.168236
        2010  |  -.3235236   .9160824    -0.35   0.724    -2.119012    1.471965
        2011  |   .2693486   1.058303     0.25   0.799    -1.804888    2.343585
        2012  |  -.2959143   1.232229    -0.24   0.810    -2.711038    2.119209
        2013  |    .204808    .773433     0.26   0.791    -1.311093    1.720709
        2014  |   1.126879   .8100105     1.39   0.164     -.460712    2.714471
        2015  |   .3867895   .8146198     0.47   0.635    -1.209836    1.983415
        2016  |  -.5322455   .9261386    -0.57   0.565    -2.347444    1.282953
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.695809   1.362534    -1.24   0.213    -4.366327    .9747091
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.986851    .192926                      1.608723    2.364979
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.700469   .2604954                      2.235269    3.262486
          rho |    .689119   .0413313                      .6029748     .763891
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_ter
> r side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1
> .bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -9743403.7  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7337905.1  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4753955.7  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -3394331.1  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1632914.8  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -1027386.6  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -565949.07  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood =    -430237  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -421224.65  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -421106.68  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -421106.66  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334077.29  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6398.0551  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6281.9802  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6264.1238  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6200.4728  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6171.0504  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6113.8923  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6112.1123  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6112.1049  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -6112.1049  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -91520.485  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10855.478  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -8090.0889  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6801.8458  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6218.928  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6028.8154  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5990.1143  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5874.8764  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5842.6883  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5834.5244  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5834.4795  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -5834.4795  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        843
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        181

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.7
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(37)     =      97.67
Log likelihood  = -5834.4795                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .2149647   .1915565     1.12   0.262    -.1604791    .5904085
Theologica..  |   .1184249   .2068525     0.57   0.567    -.2869987    .5238484
              |
  claim_other |  -.3660503   .1129194    -3.24   0.001    -.5873682   -.1447323
rebel_ext_m~t |       .561   .2675814     2.10   0.036     .0365501     1.08545
  incomp_terr |   -.255729   .1051875    -2.43   0.015    -.4618926   -.0495654
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0023633   .0122034     0.19   0.846    -.0215549    .0262816
 vdem_rescale |   .0138998   .0105777     1.31   0.189    -.0068321    .0346317
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0005594   .0018823    -0.30   0.766    -.0042486    .0031297
     rcd_loot |  -.0226117   .0827287    -0.27   0.785    -.1847569    .1395335
    rcd_crime |   .4220629     .09166     4.60   0.000     .2424126    .6017133
 active_dyads |  -.0267652   .0410255    -0.65   0.514    -.1071736    .0536433
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000746   .0000121     6.15   0.000     .0000509    .0000984
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2313583   .1776884    -1.30   0.193    -.5796211    .1169045
        1992  |   .1280965   .1746312     0.73   0.463    -.2141745    .4703674
        1993  |  -.0336566   .1778315    -0.19   0.850    -.3822001    .3148868
        1994  |  -.0265444   .1766895    -0.15   0.881    -.3728494    .3197606
        1995  |  -.2019729   .1805402    -1.12   0.263    -.5558252    .1518793
        1996  |  -.0014979    .188551    -0.01   0.994     -.371051    .3680553
        1997  |  -.0895482   .1905704    -0.47   0.638    -.4630593    .2839628
        1998  |  -.0816265   .1829424    -0.45   0.655    -.4401871    .2769341
        1999  |  -.0565644   .1829164    -0.31   0.757    -.4150738    .3019451
        2000  |   -.081113   .1838206    -0.44   0.659    -.4413948    .2791687
        2001  |   -.314477   .1843363    -1.71   0.088    -.6757695    .0468156
        2002  |   .0344943   .1774988     0.19   0.846    -.3133969    .3823855
        2003  |  -.2727314   .1910009    -1.43   0.153    -.6470864    .1016235
        2004  |  -.1371496   .1899806    -0.72   0.470    -.5095048    .2352056
        2005  |  -.1976728   .1988211    -0.99   0.320     -.587355    .1920093
        2006  |    -.22663   .1907135    -1.19   0.235    -.6004217    .1471616
        2007  |  -.0990906   .1914948    -0.52   0.605    -.4744135    .2762323
        2008  |  -.1187608   .1878859    -0.63   0.527    -.4870104    .2494888
        2009  |  -.0980254   .1856242    -0.53   0.597    -.4618421    .2657913
        2010  |  -.3389768   .1945433    -1.74   0.081    -.7202747    .0423211
        2011  |  -.4514172   .1992409    -2.27   0.023    -.8419222   -.0609122
        2012  |  -.3281362    .207981    -1.58   0.115    -.7357715    .0794992
        2013  |  -.5148836   .2127721    -2.42   0.016    -.9319093    -.097858
        2014  |  -.2531313   .2004247    -1.26   0.207    -.6459565    .1396939
        2015  |  -.4589755   .2020766    -2.27   0.023    -.8550384   -.0629125
              |
        _cons |   .3128771   .3869252     0.81   0.419    -.4454824    1.071237
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0475524   .1196269                     -.2820168     .186912
        /ln_s |   4.561135   .2031199                      4.163027    4.959243
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9535605   .1140715                       .754261    1.205521
            s |   95.69204   19.43696                      64.26579    142.4859
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 555.25               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_ter
> r side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1
> .bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -115815.41  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -7973.688  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7347.2573  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6789.5181  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6278.2189  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5982.0797  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood =  -5678.479  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4943.0484  (not concave)
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4618.3542  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4559.5008  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4409.5532  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -4353.6017  
Iteration 12:  log likelihood = -4352.7472  
Iteration 13:  log likelihood = -4352.7455  
Iteration 14:  log likelihood = -4352.7455  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        782
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        120

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(37)     =     107.78
Log likelihood  = -4352.7455                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .3404925   .2449482     1.39   0.165    -.1395971    .8205821
Theologica..  |   .0598369   .2557121     0.23   0.815    -.4413496    .5610233
              |
  claim_other |  -.4989965   .1460027    -3.42   0.001    -.7851566   -.2128364
rebel_ext_m~t |   .2740573   .3710111     0.74   0.460     -.453111    1.001226
  incomp_terr |  -.1984593   .1260924    -1.57   0.116    -.4455959    .0486774
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0177066   .0155143     1.14   0.254    -.0127008     .048114
 vdem_rescale |   .0356584   .0119099     2.99   0.003     .0123154    .0590014
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0007868   .0020581    -0.38   0.702    -.0048207    .0032471
     rcd_loot |  -.0998623   .0894364    -1.12   0.264    -.2751545    .0754298
    rcd_crime |   .4984875   .1026172     4.86   0.000     .2973614    .6996136
 active_dyads |  -.0016863   .0461748    -0.04   0.971    -.0921872    .0888146
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000669   .0000139     4.81   0.000     .0000397    .0000942
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2918924   .1788539    -1.63   0.103    -.6424397    .0586549
        1992  |   .0440586   .1852861     0.24   0.812    -.3190954    .4072127
        1993  |  -.1642306    .193804    -0.85   0.397    -.5440795    .2156184
        1994  |  -.1360459   .1921305    -0.71   0.479    -.5126148     .240523
        1995  |  -.3369503   .1936678    -1.74   0.082    -.7165322    .0426317
        1996  |  -.1406573   .2005723    -0.70   0.483    -.5337719    .2524572
        1997  |  -.2859546   .2033944    -1.41   0.160    -.6846004    .1126912
        1998  |    -.28857     .19799    -1.46   0.145    -.6766234    .0994834
        1999  |  -.2937134   .2002594    -1.47   0.142    -.6862146    .0987879
        2000  |  -.2443771   .1959658    -1.25   0.212    -.6284631    .1397089
        2001  |  -.4686587   .1949258    -2.40   0.016    -.8507062   -.0866113
        2002  |  -.1266105   .1875046    -0.68   0.500    -.4941128    .2408918
        2003  |  -.4258606   .2012089    -2.12   0.034    -.8202229   -.0314983
        2004  |  -.2891817   .1973494    -1.47   0.143    -.6759795    .0976161
        2005  |   -.374784   .2067994    -1.81   0.070    -.7801033    .0305354
        2006  |  -.4015057   .2021196    -1.99   0.047    -.7976528   -.0053587
        2007  |  -.2838613   .2033537    -1.40   0.163    -.6824273    .1147047
        2008  |  -.3115855   .2035176    -1.53   0.126    -.7104727    .0873017
        2009  |  -.2670612   .1997176    -1.34   0.181    -.6585006    .1243781
        2010  |  -.5260422   .2097923    -2.51   0.012    -.9372275   -.1148569
        2011  |  -.6781564   .2177549    -3.11   0.002    -1.104948   -.2513646
        2012  |  -.6192358   .2243782    -2.76   0.006    -1.059009   -.1794625
        2013  |  -.8154905   .2327784    -3.50   0.000    -1.271728   -.3592533
        2014  |  -.4709873   .2185496    -2.16   0.031    -.8993368   -.0426379
        2015  |  -.7011591     .22423    -3.13   0.002    -1.140642   -.2616763
              |
        _cons |    .089888   .4768298     0.19   0.850    -.8446811    1.024457
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ******************
. * Table A8. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Specific Types of Ideological
>  Claim – Monadic *
. ******************************************************************************
> ******************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist cl
> aim_libdem rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_re
> scale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1093.275  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1079.698  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4946  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1020.6985
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -981.08966
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -952.90726
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -932.02316
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -916.30705
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood =  -905.7783
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -899.92535
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood =  -903.3935

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -900.00016  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -847.41215  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.47962  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.20275  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.19007  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.19007  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -836.1863  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -836.1863  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(78)     =     365.09
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -836.1863              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |    .970233   .5677427     1.71   0.087    -.1425223    2.082988
Christian-~l  |   1.012662   .9948796     1.02   0.309    -.9372665     2.96259
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .9202473   .5638969     1.63   0.103    -.1849703    2.025465
Muslim-The~l  |   1.779728   .6644712     2.68   0.007     .4773886    3.082068
              |
claim_commu~t |   .5379454   .5137559     1.05   0.295    -.4689977    1.544889
 claim_libdem |  -.2792354   .5701624    -0.49   0.624    -1.396733    .8382623
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.711157   .8551626     3.17   0.002     1.035069    4.387245
  incomp_terr |  -.4986696   .4282655    -1.16   0.244    -1.338055    .3407154
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.064494   .0314098    -2.05   0.040     -.126056    -.002932
 vdem_rescale |  -.0292144   .0540936    -0.54   0.589    -.1352358     .076807
vdem_rescal~q |    .007951   .0078662     1.01   0.312    -.0074664    .0233684
 active_dyads |   .0727455   .1326186     0.55   0.583    -.1871822    .3326732
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.109071   1.240515    -0.89   0.371    -3.540437    1.322294
        1952  |   -1.36936   1.391547    -0.98   0.325    -4.096741    1.358021
        1953  |   .0524818    1.32378     0.04   0.968    -2.542079    2.647042
        1954  |     -3.268   1.536848    -2.13   0.033    -6.280167    -.255833
        1955  |  -1.517806   2.113264    -0.72   0.473    -5.659726    2.624115
        1956  |   -2.32543   2.270454    -1.02   0.306    -6.775439    2.124578
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.696655   1.795194    -0.95   0.345    -5.215171    1.821861
        1959  |  -2.334998   1.951097    -1.20   0.231    -6.159077    1.489081
        1960  |   -3.24501   1.596468    -2.03   0.042    -6.374029   -.1159904
        1961  |  -1.186802   1.469473    -0.81   0.419    -4.066916    1.693312
        1962  |  -.6835084   1.466024    -0.47   0.641    -3.556862    2.189845
        1963  |  -.8279422   1.468338    -0.56   0.573    -3.705831    2.049947
        1964  |  -1.699501   1.312742    -1.29   0.195    -4.272428    .8734273
        1965  |   -1.91713    1.34446    -1.43   0.154    -4.552223     .717964
        1966  |  -1.686751   1.280493    -1.32   0.188    -4.196473    .8229696
        1967  |  -1.763759   1.264586    -1.39   0.163    -4.242301    .7147831
        1968  |  -2.010758   1.208626    -1.66   0.096    -4.379622    .3581064
        1969  |  -1.704243   1.262374    -1.35   0.177     -4.17845    .7699653
        1970  |  -1.840366   1.242875    -1.48   0.139    -4.276356    .5956236
        1971  |   -.888425   1.088689    -0.82   0.414    -3.022216    1.245366
        1972  |  -2.657677   1.292228    -2.06   0.040    -5.190397   -.1249579
        1973  |  -3.282409   1.417566    -2.32   0.021    -6.060787   -.5040303
        1974  |  -1.659119   1.336916    -1.24   0.215    -4.279425     .961188
        1975  |  -1.482789   1.284902    -1.15   0.248     -4.00115    1.035573
        1976  |  -1.266907   1.277179    -0.99   0.321    -3.770132    1.236318
        1977  |  -1.512857   1.267248    -1.19   0.233    -3.996617     .970903
        1978  |  -.2414484   1.288928    -0.19   0.851    -2.767701    2.284804
        1979  |  -1.959143   1.277628    -1.53   0.125    -4.463247    .5449618
        1980  |  -1.586741   1.245305    -1.27   0.203    -4.027493    .8540114
        1981  |  -1.643404    1.28113    -1.28   0.200    -4.154372    .8675639
        1982  |    -1.1311   1.220079    -0.93   0.354    -3.522411    1.260211
        1983  |  -1.304094   1.253464    -1.04   0.298     -3.76084    1.152651
        1984  |   -1.06148   1.218244    -0.87   0.384    -3.449195    1.326235
        1985  |  -1.348144   1.237111    -1.09   0.276    -3.772837    1.076548
        1986  |  -1.866584    1.26068    -1.48   0.139    -4.337472    .6043032
        1987  |  -1.522581   1.242134    -1.23   0.220    -3.957119    .9119567
        1988  |  -.7764869   1.238633    -0.63   0.531    -3.204163    1.651189
        1989  |  -2.431873   1.269483    -1.92   0.055    -4.920015    .0562681
        1990  |  -2.119789   1.293931    -1.64   0.101    -4.655847    .4162691
        1991  |   -2.36501   1.284237    -1.84   0.066    -4.882068    .1520486
        1992  |  -1.589243   1.299755    -1.22   0.221    -4.136716    .9582306
        1993  |  -2.315939   1.299556    -1.78   0.075    -4.863022    .2311446
        1994  |  -2.070116   1.367714    -1.51   0.130    -4.750786    .6105545
        1995  |  -2.166774   1.343846    -1.61   0.107    -4.800664    .4671156
        1996  |  -2.299434   1.317825    -1.74   0.081    -4.882323    .2834556
        1997  |  -2.280567   1.283046    -1.78   0.075     -4.79529    .2341566
        1998  |  -1.414487    1.28285    -1.10   0.270    -3.928827    1.099854
        1999  |  -1.469434    1.30359    -1.13   0.260    -4.024423    1.085556
        2000  |   -2.16034   1.304103    -1.66   0.098    -4.716334    .3956545
        2001  |   -2.62093   1.319759    -1.99   0.047    -5.207611   -.0342484
        2002  |  -1.925557   1.399458    -1.38   0.169    -4.668444      .81733
        2003  |  -3.016085   1.626221    -1.85   0.064     -6.20342    .1712507
        2004  |  -1.908539    1.44644    -1.32   0.187    -4.743508    .9264306
        2005  |  -2.674194   1.511701    -1.77   0.077    -5.637074     .288686
        2006  |  -3.876876   1.376749    -2.82   0.005    -6.575253   -1.178498
        2007  |  -3.531505   1.467964    -2.41   0.016    -6.408662   -.6543488
        2008  |  -3.417295   1.322971    -2.58   0.010    -6.010271   -.8243183
        2009  |  -3.123084   1.352599    -2.31   0.021     -5.77413   -.4720377
        2010  |  -3.683538   1.303314    -2.83   0.005    -6.237985    -1.12909
        2011  |  -3.078365   1.411062    -2.18   0.029    -5.843995   -.3127356
        2012  |  -3.612919   1.512643    -2.39   0.017    -6.577644   -.6481927
        2013  |  -3.126859   1.305608    -2.39   0.017    -5.685804   -.5679136
        2014  |  -2.209612   1.364902    -1.62   0.105     -4.88477     .465546
        2015  |  -2.946183   1.337919    -2.20   0.028    -5.568456   -.3239106
        2016  |  -3.828129   1.455034    -2.63   0.009    -6.679944   -.9763144
        2017  |  -3.327424   1.419094    -2.34   0.019    -6.108796   -.5460517
              |
        _cons |  -1.431389   1.221156    -1.17   0.241     -3.82481    .9620333
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.973408   .1934734                      1.594207    2.352609
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.682379   .2594844                      2.219104     3.24237
          rho |   .6862317   .0416582                      .5994946    .7616526
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist cl
> aim_libdem rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_re
> scale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robus
> t)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1093.275  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1079.698  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4946  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1020.6985
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -981.08966
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -952.90726
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -932.02316
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -916.30705
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood =  -905.7783
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -899.92535
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood =  -903.3935

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -900.00016  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -847.41215  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.47962  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.20275  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.19007  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.19007  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -836.1863  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -836.1863  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(78)     =     365.09
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -836.1863              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |    .970233   .5677427     1.71   0.087    -.1425223    2.082988
Christian-~l  |   1.012662   .9948796     1.02   0.309    -.9372665     2.96259
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .9202473   .5638969     1.63   0.103    -.1849703    2.025465
Muslim-The~l  |   1.779728   .6644712     2.68   0.007     .4773886    3.082068
              |
claim_commu~t |   .5379454   .5137559     1.05   0.295    -.4689977    1.544889
 claim_libdem |  -.2792354   .5701624    -0.49   0.624    -1.396733    .8382623
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.711157   .8551626     3.17   0.002     1.035069    4.387245
  incomp_terr |  -.4986696   .4282655    -1.16   0.244    -1.338055    .3407154
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.064494   .0314098    -2.05   0.040     -.126056    -.002932
 vdem_rescale |  -.0292144   .0540936    -0.54   0.589    -.1352358     .076807
vdem_rescal~q |    .007951   .0078662     1.01   0.312    -.0074664    .0233684
 active_dyads |   .0727455   .1326186     0.55   0.583    -.1871822    .3326732
post_cold_war |  -3.327424   1.419094    -2.34   0.019    -6.108796   -.5460517
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.109071   1.240515    -0.89   0.371    -3.540437    1.322294
        1952  |   -1.36936   1.391547    -0.98   0.325    -4.096741    1.358021
        1953  |   .0524818    1.32378     0.04   0.968    -2.542079    2.647042
        1954  |     -3.268   1.536848    -2.13   0.033    -6.280167    -.255833
        1955  |  -1.517806   2.113264    -0.72   0.473    -5.659726    2.624115
        1956  |   -2.32543   2.270454    -1.02   0.306    -6.775439    2.124578
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.696655   1.795194    -0.95   0.345    -5.215171    1.821861
        1959  |  -2.334998   1.951097    -1.20   0.231    -6.159077    1.489081
        1960  |   -3.24501   1.596468    -2.03   0.042    -6.374029   -.1159904
        1961  |  -1.186802   1.469473    -0.81   0.419    -4.066916    1.693312
        1962  |  -.6835084   1.466024    -0.47   0.641    -3.556862    2.189845
        1963  |  -.8279422   1.468338    -0.56   0.573    -3.705831    2.049947
        1964  |  -1.699501   1.312742    -1.29   0.195    -4.272428    .8734273
        1965  |   -1.91713    1.34446    -1.43   0.154    -4.552223     .717964
        1966  |  -1.686751   1.280493    -1.32   0.188    -4.196473    .8229696
        1967  |  -1.763759   1.264586    -1.39   0.163    -4.242301    .7147831
        1968  |  -2.010758   1.208626    -1.66   0.096    -4.379622    .3581064
        1969  |  -1.704243   1.262374    -1.35   0.177     -4.17845    .7699653
        1970  |  -1.840366   1.242875    -1.48   0.139    -4.276356    .5956236
        1971  |   -.888425   1.088689    -0.82   0.414    -3.022216    1.245366
        1972  |  -2.657677   1.292228    -2.06   0.040    -5.190397   -.1249579
        1973  |  -3.282409   1.417566    -2.32   0.021    -6.060787   -.5040303
        1974  |  -1.659119   1.336916    -1.24   0.215    -4.279425     .961188
        1975  |  -1.482789   1.284902    -1.15   0.248     -4.00115    1.035573
        1976  |  -1.266907   1.277179    -0.99   0.321    -3.770132    1.236318
        1977  |  -1.512857   1.267248    -1.19   0.233    -3.996617     .970903
        1978  |  -.2414484   1.288928    -0.19   0.851    -2.767701    2.284804
        1979  |  -1.959143   1.277628    -1.53   0.125    -4.463247    .5449618
        1980  |  -1.586741   1.245305    -1.27   0.203    -4.027493    .8540114
        1981  |  -1.643404    1.28113    -1.28   0.200    -4.154372    .8675639
        1982  |    -1.1311   1.220079    -0.93   0.354    -3.522411    1.260211
        1983  |  -1.304094   1.253464    -1.04   0.298     -3.76084    1.152651
        1984  |   -1.06148   1.218244    -0.87   0.384    -3.449195    1.326235
        1985  |  -1.348144   1.237111    -1.09   0.276    -3.772837    1.076548
        1986  |  -1.866584    1.26068    -1.48   0.139    -4.337472    .6043032
        1987  |  -1.522581   1.242134    -1.23   0.220    -3.957119    .9119567
        1988  |  -.7764869   1.238633    -0.63   0.531    -3.204163    1.651189
        1989  |  -2.431873   1.269483    -1.92   0.055    -4.920015    .0562681
        1990  |  -2.119789   1.293931    -1.64   0.101    -4.655847    .4162691
        1991  |    .962414   .9253778     1.04   0.298    -.8512932    2.776121
        1992  |   1.738181   .9300686     1.87   0.062    -.0847199    3.561082
        1993  |   1.011485   .9871737     1.02   0.306    -.9233395     2.94631
        1994  |   1.257308   1.062086     1.18   0.236    -.8243412    3.338958
        1995  |    1.16065   1.013901     1.14   0.252      -.82656     3.14786
        1996  |    1.02799    1.00269     1.03   0.305    -.9372458    2.993226
        1997  |   1.046857   .9374429     1.12   0.264    -.7904971    2.884211
        1998  |   1.912937   .9279518     2.06   0.039     .0941852     3.73169
        1999  |    1.85799   .9168597     2.03   0.043     .0609784    3.655002
        2000  |   1.167084   .9635577     1.21   0.226    -.7214544    3.055622
        2001  |   .7064944   .9552105     0.74   0.460    -1.165684    2.578673
        2002  |   1.401867   1.027842     1.36   0.173    -.6126663    3.416401
        2003  |   .3113393   1.419811     0.22   0.826     -2.47144    3.094119
        2004  |   1.418885    1.19019     1.19   0.233    -.9138446    3.751615
        2005  |   .6532301   1.110095     0.59   0.556    -1.522516    2.828976
        2006  |   -.549452   .8445236    -0.65   0.515    -2.204688    1.105784
        2007  |  -.2040813   .8134318    -0.25   0.802    -1.798378    1.390216
        2008  |  -.0898706   .8846157    -0.10   0.919    -1.823685    1.643944
        2009  |   .2043402    .985539     0.21   0.836    -1.727281    2.135961
        2010  |  -.3561138   .9085503    -0.39   0.695     -2.13684    1.424612
        2011  |   .2490584   1.058687     0.24   0.814    -1.825929    2.324046
        2012  |  -.2854946   1.228227    -0.23   0.816    -2.692776    2.121786
        2013  |   .2005651   .7697606     0.26   0.794    -1.308138    1.709268
        2014  |   1.117812   .8068257     1.39   0.166    -.4635375    2.699161
        2015  |   .3812407    .821798     0.46   0.643    -1.229454    1.991935
        2016  |  -.5007055   .9229969    -0.54   0.587    -2.309746    1.308335
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.431389   1.221156    -1.17   0.241     -3.82481    .9620333
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.973408   .1934734                      1.594207    2.352609
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.682379   .2594844                      2.219104     3.24237
          rho |   .6862317   .0416582                      .5994946    .7616526
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type c.
> claim_communist c.claim_libdem) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP
>  vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vc
> e(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1087.6623  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1073.5976  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1073.4067  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1073.4065  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1073.4065  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1073.4065
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood =  -1014.656
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -975.31539
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -947.45058
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -926.78704
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -911.24452
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -901.10476
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -896.28488
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -898.26705

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -895.30961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -841.37296  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.83479  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.46327  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.44291  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.44291  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -829.4355  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -829.4355  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(84)     =     446.13
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -829.4355              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -2.591258   1.592324    -1.63   0.104    -5.712156    .5296398
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.353236   .6462158     2.09   0.036     .0866764    2.619796
Christian-~l  |   1.735941   1.112808     1.56   0.119    -.4451228    3.917005
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .6683767   .5900697     1.13   0.257    -.4881386    1.824892
Muslim-The~l  |   2.973338   .9087364     3.27   0.001     1.192247    4.754428
              |
claim_commu~t |   .5524964    .557832     0.99   0.322    -.5408342    1.645827
 claim_libdem |   .4342199   .7345934     0.59   0.554    -1.005557    1.873997
              |
post_cold_war#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |  -1.098141   .8577215    -1.28   0.200    -2.779244    .5829625
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |  -1.289543   .8607145    -1.50   0.134    -2.976512    .3974262
              |
post_cold_war#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .3172553   .8359998     0.38   0.704    -1.321274    1.955785
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -1.788169   1.026212    -1.74   0.081    -3.799508    .2231703
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |   .2310058   .8775699     0.26   0.792       -1.489    1.951011
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |  -1.314719   .6841556    -1.92   0.055     -2.65564    .0262009
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.859308   .8840404     3.23   0.001     1.126621    4.591995
  incomp_terr |  -.4436544    .440291    -1.01   0.314    -1.306609       .4193
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0671597   .0320286    -2.10   0.036    -.1299346   -.0043849
 vdem_rescale |   -.044482   .0587392    -0.76   0.449    -.1596088    .0706448
vdem_rescal~q |     .00699   .0082209     0.85   0.395    -.0091228    .0231028
 active_dyads |   .0034792   .1225382     0.03   0.977    -.2366912    .2436495
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.065375   1.239798    -0.86   0.390    -3.495335    1.364585
        1952  |  -1.366281   1.407707    -0.97   0.332    -4.125336    1.392774
        1953  |   .0732289    1.30517     0.06   0.955    -2.484858    2.631316
        1954  |  -3.300936   1.542551    -2.14   0.032    -6.324281   -.2775907
        1955  |   -1.47357    2.13668    -0.69   0.490    -5.661386    2.714247
        1956  |  -2.285848   2.282303    -1.00   0.317     -6.75908    2.187384
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.575729   1.813892    -0.87   0.385    -5.130891    1.979434
        1959  |  -2.244541   1.964274    -1.14   0.253    -6.094448    1.605366
        1960  |  -3.142676   1.614531    -1.95   0.052    -6.307099    .0217477
        1961  |  -1.133503   1.477532    -0.77   0.443    -4.029413    1.762408
        1962  |  -.6560065   1.470785    -0.45   0.656    -3.538691    2.226678
        1963  |  -.7604361   1.480845    -0.51   0.608     -3.66284    2.141968
        1964  |  -1.699869   1.317154    -1.29   0.197    -4.281442    .8817049
        1965  |   -1.92869   1.337884    -1.44   0.149    -4.550894    .6935148
        1966  |  -1.656563   1.278364    -1.30   0.195    -4.162111    .8489853
        1967  |  -1.750876   1.267449    -1.38   0.167     -4.23503     .733278
        1968  |  -1.995103   1.214153    -1.64   0.100    -4.374799    .3845933
        1969  |  -1.655648    1.26065    -1.31   0.189    -4.126476    .8151801
        1970  |  -1.780629   1.244336    -1.43   0.152    -4.219483    .6582245
        1971  |  -.7753365   1.086454    -0.71   0.475    -2.904746    1.354073
        1972  |  -2.646448   1.289556    -2.05   0.040    -5.173931   -.1189646
        1973  |  -3.256765   1.403347    -2.32   0.020    -6.007275   -.5062551
        1974  |   -1.62475   1.331372    -1.22   0.222    -4.234191    .9846916
        1975  |  -1.450926   1.281962    -1.13   0.258    -3.963524    1.061673
        1976  |  -1.241469   1.279516    -0.97   0.332    -3.749273    1.266336
        1977  |  -1.500396   1.271198    -1.18   0.238    -3.991898     .991106
        1978  |  -.2056422   1.293529    -0.16   0.874    -2.740912    2.329628
        1979  |  -1.978659   1.290114    -1.53   0.125    -4.507237    .5499185
        1980  |  -1.574803   1.250169    -1.26   0.208     -4.02509    .8754838
        1981  |   -1.62723   1.286589    -1.26   0.206    -4.148898    .8944382
        1982  |  -1.102329   1.220336    -0.90   0.366    -3.494143    1.289485
        1983  |  -1.286565   1.263628    -1.02   0.309    -3.763231    1.190101
        1984  |  -.9618378   1.220375    -0.79   0.431    -3.353729    1.430053
        1985  |  -1.293225    1.22963    -1.05   0.293    -3.703255    1.116805
        1986  |  -1.821541   1.271167    -1.43   0.152    -4.312982    .6699008
        1987  |  -1.490218   1.251263    -1.19   0.234    -3.942648    .9622128
        1988  |  -.7321057   1.237902    -0.59   0.554    -3.158348    1.694137
        1989  |  -2.554411    1.30794    -1.95   0.051    -5.117926    .0091032
        1990  |  -2.130323   1.335292    -1.60   0.111    -4.747448    .4868012
        1991  |   1.074091   .9230029     1.16   0.245    -.7349612    2.883144
        1992  |   1.805188   .9662738     1.87   0.062     -.088674     3.69905
        1993  |   1.021223   1.011124     1.01   0.313    -.9605444     3.00299
        1994  |   1.281556    1.08854     1.18   0.239    -.8519437    3.415056
        1995  |   1.193112   1.024565     1.16   0.244    -.8149987    3.201223
        1996  |   1.045775   1.005622     1.04   0.298    -.9252084    3.016759
        1997  |   1.121291   .9843329     1.14   0.255    -.8079663    3.050548
        1998  |   1.976138   .9704989     2.04   0.042     .0739952    3.878281
        1999  |   1.940053   .9504137     2.04   0.041     .0772761    3.802829
        2000  |   1.247204    .996723     1.25   0.211    -.7063368    3.200745
        2001  |   .7828008   .9814102     0.80   0.425    -1.140728    2.706329
        2002  |   1.484996   1.038509     1.43   0.153    -.5504444    3.520436
        2003  |   .3774992   1.419177     0.27   0.790    -2.404037    3.159036
        2004  |   1.483811   1.188316     1.25   0.212    -.8452462    3.812869
        2005  |   .6215899   1.123662     0.55   0.580    -1.580748    2.823928
        2006  |  -.5490841   .8414422    -0.65   0.514     -2.19828    1.100112
        2007  |  -.1813443   .8105484    -0.22   0.823     -1.76999    1.407301
        2008  |  -.0864627   .8901817    -0.10   0.923    -1.831187    1.658261
        2009  |   .1956663   1.006619     0.19   0.846     -1.77727    2.168602
        2010  |  -.3256574   .9321083    -0.35   0.727    -2.152556    1.501241
        2011  |   .3020031   1.084122     0.28   0.781    -1.822837    2.426844
        2012  |  -.2891732    1.25452    -0.23   0.818    -2.747987    2.169641
        2013  |   .2495892   .7854959     0.32   0.751    -1.289954    1.789133
        2014  |   1.203653   .8387546     1.44   0.151     -.440276    2.847581
        2015  |   .4042721   .8261561     0.49   0.625    -1.214964    2.023508
        2016  |  -.5797432   .9311901    -0.62   0.534    -2.404842    1.245356
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.680987   1.237514    -1.36   0.174     -4.10647    .7444967
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |    2.02635   .2013383                      1.631734    2.420966
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.754332   .2772763                      2.261135    3.355104
          rho |   .6975171   .0424798                      .6084703    .7738393
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist claim_libdem
>  rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq r
> cd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -9463960.3  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6212539.5  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5621900.8  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4493043.1  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =   -3504180  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -897135.12  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -421407.29  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -407478.77  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -407209.21  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -407208.98  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -407208.98  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334077.29  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6398.0551  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6281.9802  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6264.1238  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6200.4286  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -6196.657  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6110.2768  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6106.3848  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6106.3609  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -6106.3609  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -90416.978  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -11052.022  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7953.7474  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -6786.005  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6210.471  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5999.0522  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5893.4509  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5840.6361  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5833.1836  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5833.0112  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood =  -5833.011  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        843
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        181

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.7
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(40)     =     101.55
Log likelihood  =  -5833.011                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |  -.0456055   .1375751    -0.33   0.740    -.3152477    .2240367
Christian-~l  |  -.1375011   .2628077    -0.52   0.601    -.6525947    .3775924
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.0811682   .1384234    -0.59   0.558    -.3524731    .1901368
Muslim-The~l  |  -.1541085   .1468734    -1.05   0.294     -.441975     .133758
              |
claim_commu~t |  -.5114621    .138759    -3.69   0.000    -.7834247   -.2394995
 claim_libdem |  -.2397548   .1552627    -1.54   0.123    -.5440641    .0645545
rebel_ext_m~t |   .4927983   .2735739     1.80   0.072    -.0433967    1.028993
  incomp_terr |  -.3008102   .1087687    -2.77   0.006    -.5139928   -.0876275
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0014119   .0126206     0.11   0.911     -.023324    .0261478
 vdem_rescale |   .0226154    .011584     1.95   0.051    -.0000889    .0453197
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0011389   .0019196    -0.59   0.553    -.0049013    .0026235
     rcd_loot |  -.0128423   .0843263    -0.15   0.879    -.1781188    .1524342
    rcd_crime |   .4445225   .0926032     4.80   0.000     .2630236    .6260215
 active_dyads |   -.026297   .0410985    -0.64   0.522    -.1068486    .0542546
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000721   .0000118     6.09   0.000     .0000489    .0000952
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2354967   .1781152    -1.32   0.186     -.584596    .1136026
        1992  |   .1115729   .1753717     0.64   0.525    -.2321493    .4552951
        1993  |  -.0605178   .1790423    -0.34   0.735    -.4114343    .2903987
        1994  |  -.0505073   .1775847    -0.28   0.776     -.398567    .2975523
        1995  |  -.2263453   .1812766    -1.25   0.212    -.5816409    .1289503
        1996  |  -.0338515   .1888649    -0.18   0.858    -.4040199    .3363168
        1997  |  -.1278545   .1908998    -0.67   0.503    -.5020114    .2463023
        1998  |  -.0986843   .1829768    -0.54   0.590    -.4573121    .2599436
        1999  |  -.0997761    .183885    -0.54   0.587     -.460184    .2606319
        2000  |   -.113625   .1834815    -0.62   0.536    -.4732421    .2459921
        2001  |  -.3536119   .1842014    -1.92   0.055      -.71464    .0074163
        2002  |  -.0110668    .178534    -0.06   0.951    -.3609871    .3388534
        2003  |  -.3088388   .1921269    -1.61   0.108    -.6854007    .0677231
        2004  |  -.1693254   .1912702    -0.89   0.376    -.5442081    .2055573
        2005  |  -.2328573   .2003851    -1.16   0.245    -.6256049    .1598904
        2006  |  -.2490386   .1911483    -1.30   0.193    -.6236823    .1256051
        2007  |   -.130768   .1923087    -0.68   0.497    -.5076862    .2461501
        2008  |  -.1442454   .1883901    -0.77   0.444    -.5134831    .2249923
        2009  |  -.1334626   .1860926    -0.72   0.473    -.4981975    .2312722
        2010  |  -.3715335   .1948119    -1.91   0.057    -.7533577    .0102908
        2011  |  -.4886983   .2001381    -2.44   0.015    -.8809618   -.0964347
        2012  |  -.3740556   .2087132    -1.79   0.073    -.7831259    .0350148
        2013  |  -.5418623    .213521    -2.54   0.011    -.9603557   -.1233688
        2014  |  -.2737363   .2004356    -1.37   0.172    -.6665828    .1191102
        2015  |  -.4706117   .2028447    -2.32   0.020    -.8681801   -.0730433
              |
        _cons |   .6595394   .3647619     1.81   0.071    -.0553808    1.374459
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0619327   .1196212                     -.2963859    .1725205
        /ln_s |   4.505534   .2060523                      4.101679    4.909389
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9399461   .1124375                      .7435004    1.188296
            s |   90.51667   18.65116                      60.44169    135.5566
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 546.70               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist claim_libdem
>  rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq r
> cd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -186293.14  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -8504.132  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6295.7173  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5639.5044  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4947.6063  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4729.4097  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4595.4073  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4491.6915  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4353.5156  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4349.2649  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4349.2516  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -4349.2516  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        782
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        120

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(40)     =     116.75
Log likelihood  = -4349.2516                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .0014994   .1776242     0.01   0.993    -.3466377    .3496364
Christian-~l  |   .0472708    .325995     0.15   0.885    -.5916676    .6862092
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.2263706   .1708412    -1.33   0.185    -.5612133     .108472
Muslim-The~l  |  -.3871156   .1704122    -2.27   0.023    -.7211174   -.0531137
              |
claim_commu~t |  -.6272306   .1666389    -3.76   0.000    -.9538368   -.3006243
 claim_libdem |  -.3434921   .2100582    -1.64   0.102    -.7551985    .0682144
rebel_ext_m~t |   .2342449   .3604945     0.65   0.516    -.4723113    .9408011
  incomp_terr |  -.1804743   .1355432    -1.33   0.183    -.4461341    .0851855
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0110882   .0161953     0.68   0.494     -.020654    .0428303
 vdem_rescale |   .0480392   .0131597     3.65   0.000     .0222465    .0738318
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0013261   .0021045    -0.63   0.529    -.0054509    .0027987
     rcd_loot |  -.1009117   .0908336    -1.11   0.267    -.2789423     .077119
    rcd_crime |   .5495058   .1037166     5.30   0.000     .3462249    .7527867
 active_dyads |   .0025835   .0465568     0.06   0.956    -.0886662    .0938332
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |    .000059   .0000135     4.39   0.000     .0000327    .0000854
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2756424   .1772356    -1.56   0.120    -.6230178    .0717331
        1992  |   .0252954   .1851428     0.14   0.891    -.3375779    .3881687
        1993  |  -.1802484    .193434    -0.93   0.351    -.5593721    .1988752
        1994  |  -.1740672   .1937948    -0.90   0.369    -.5538981    .2057637
        1995  |  -.3602491   .1930422    -1.87   0.062    -.7386048    .0181066
        1996  |  -.1708267   .1997759    -0.86   0.393    -.5623803    .2207269
        1997  |  -.3354746   .2036606    -1.65   0.100    -.7346421     .063693
        1998  |  -.3088728   .1977716    -1.56   0.118     -.696498    .0787524
        1999  |  -.3330999   .2010183    -1.66   0.098    -.7270886    .0608887
        2000  |  -.2713569   .1956437    -1.39   0.165    -.6548115    .1120977
        2001  |  -.5118871   .1936389    -2.64   0.008    -.8914123   -.1323619
        2002  |  -.1558791   .1869538    -0.83   0.404    -.5223018    .2105437
        2003  |  -.4476725   .2013199    -2.22   0.026    -.8422523   -.0530927
        2004  |  -.3099617   .1987137    -1.56   0.119    -.6994334      .07951
        2005  |  -.3918307   .2073678    -1.89   0.059    -.7982641    .0146027
        2006  |  -.4247881   .2017794    -2.11   0.035    -.8202685   -.0293078
        2007  |  -.3008641   .2033521    -1.48   0.139    -.6994269    .0976986
        2008  |  -.3229868    .202888    -1.59   0.111    -.7206399    .0746662
        2009  |  -.2777816   .1987885    -1.40   0.162    -.6673999    .1118367
        2010  |  -.5558952    .208826    -2.66   0.008    -.9651866   -.1466038
        2011  |  -.7034743   .2168582    -3.24   0.001    -1.128509     -.27844
        2012  |  -.6521367   .2242425    -2.91   0.004    -1.091644   -.2126293
        2013  |   -.830816   .2325934    -3.57   0.000    -1.286691   -.3749414
        2014  |  -.5118973   .2182964    -2.34   0.019    -.9397503   -.0840443
        2015  |  -.7117751   .2247129    -3.17   0.002    -1.152204   -.2713459
              |
        _cons |   .6642735   .4606251     1.44   0.149    -.2385351    1.567082
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *********************
. * Robustness Checks *
. *********************
. 
. **********************************
. * SET DATA AS SURVIVAL-TIME DATA *
. **********************************
. 
. stset year1 if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, failure(ep_end==1) id(dyad_id_rev) origi
> n(time start_year_1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyad_id_rev
     failure event:  ep_end == 1
obs. time interval:  (year1[_n-1], year1]
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time start_year_1
            if exp:  obsolete_ucdp_data==0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2610  total observations
         34  ignored at outset because of -if <exp>-
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2576  observations remaining, representing
        507  subjects
        433  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
   3381.196  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =        70

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *****
. * Table A2-A. “Risk” of Armed Conflict Termination – Dyadic, 1950-2010, NAGs D
> ata *
. ******************************************************************************
> *****
. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_support incomp_terr intensi
> ty_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vc
> e(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          397             Number of obs    =       2,067
No. of failures      =          335
Time at risk         =  2695.797363
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       64.88
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1399.8017             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 397 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4191351   .1301112    -3.22   0.001    -.6741484   -.1641218
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0564196   .1314774    -0.43   0.668    -.3141105    .2012714
rebel_ext_s~t |   -.291997   .1219536    -2.39   0.017    -.5310217   -.0529723
  incomp_terr |  -.1671535   .1361501    -1.23   0.220    -.4340027    .0996957
intensity_l~l |  -.2243021   .1679396    -1.34   0.182    -.5534576    .1048534
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0206091   .0106079    -1.94   0.052    -.0414002     .000182
 vdem_rescale |  -.0036293   .0169475    -0.21   0.830    -.0368458    .0295871
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0009097   .0031073    -0.29   0.770        -.007    .0051805
 active_dyads |  -.8737048   .1216852    -7.18   0.000    -1.112203   -.6352062
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_support incomp_terr intensi
> ty_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war,
>  nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          397             Number of obs    =       2,067
No. of failures      =          335
Time at risk         =  2695.797363
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =       80.25
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1395.8914             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 397 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.3836767   .1320307    -2.91   0.004    -.6424521   -.1249013
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0640315   .1281145    -0.50   0.617    -.3151312    .1870682
rebel_ext_s~t |  -.3190353   .1218409    -2.62   0.009     -.557839   -.0802316
  incomp_terr |  -.1296569   .1332608    -0.97   0.331    -.3908433    .1315294
intensity_l~l |  -.1970635   .1676216    -1.18   0.240    -.5255957    .1314688
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0269453   .0106247    -2.54   0.011    -.0477693   -.0061212
 vdem_rescale |  -.0086499   .0171249    -0.51   0.613     -.042214    .0249142
vdem_rescal~q |   .0004617   .0031439     0.15   0.883    -.0057002    .0066237
 active_dyads |  -.8909596   .1203057    -7.41   0.000    -1.126754   -.6551648
post_cold_war |   .3530648    .130244     2.71   0.007     .0977912    .6083384
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_suppor
> t incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active
> _dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          397             Number of obs    =       2,067
No. of failures      =          335
Time at risk         =  2695.797363
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =       86.01
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1393.5923             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 397 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .2603664   .2643858     0.98   0.325    -.2578203     .778553
incomp_ideo~l |  -.3154838   .2096969    -1.50   0.132    -.7264822    .0955147
incomp_rel_~f |  -.3031925   .1805563    -1.68   0.093    -.6570765    .0506914
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |  -.1515004    .267277    -0.57   0.571    -.6753536    .3723529
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |    .482907   .2437053     1.98   0.048     .0052535    .9605605
              |
rebel_ext_s~t |  -.3329923   .1227341    -2.71   0.007    -.5735468   -.0924378
  incomp_terr |  -.1528454   .1378926    -1.11   0.268      -.42311    .1174192
intensity_l~l |  -.2097259   .1691773    -1.24   0.215    -.5413073    .1218556
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0280623   .0106833    -2.63   0.009    -.0490011   -.0071235
 vdem_rescale |  -.0088305   .0172407    -0.51   0.609    -.0426217    .0249606
vdem_rescal~q |   .0006526   .0032312     0.20   0.840    -.0056804    .0069856
 active_dyads |   -.907409   .1218969    -7.44   0.000    -1.146323   -.6684955
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_support incomp_terr intensi
> ty_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vc
> e(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          397             Number of obs    =       2,067
No. of failures      =          335
Time at risk         =  2695.797363
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =       65.98
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1398.9396             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 397 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.3699225   .1374232    -2.69   0.007     -.639267   -.1005781
 Theological  |  -.7052665   .3214228    -2.19   0.028    -1.335244   -.0752894
        Both  |   -.450528   .1899137    -2.37   0.018     -.822752   -.0783039
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0395964   .1353837    -0.29   0.770    -.3049435    .2257507
rebel_ext_s~t |  -.2970871   .1225044    -2.43   0.015    -.5371913    -.056983
  incomp_terr |  -.1866919    .137348    -1.36   0.174    -.4558891    .0825053
intensity_l~l |  -.2262175   .1689629    -1.34   0.181    -.5573787    .1049437
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0186645   .0107879    -1.73   0.084    -.0398084    .0024794
 vdem_rescale |  -.0073212   .0174189    -0.42   0.674    -.0414616    .0268193
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0014498    .003243    -0.45   0.655    -.0078059    .0049064
 active_dyads |   -.862793   .1221022    -7.07   0.000    -1.102109   -.6234771
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_support incomp_terr intensi
> ty_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war,
>  nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          397             Number of obs    =       2,067
No. of failures      =          335
Time at risk         =  2695.797363
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =       88.11
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1392.7309             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 397 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.2559809   .1429009    -1.79   0.073    -.5360616    .0240998
 Theological  |  -.8966382   .3209459    -2.79   0.005    -1.525681   -.2675957
        Both  |  -.4912303   .2057374    -2.39   0.017    -.8944681   -.0879925
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0220763   .1324377    -0.17   0.868    -.2816493    .2374967
rebel_ext_s~t |  -.3346849   .1222018    -2.74   0.006    -.5741959   -.0951739
  incomp_terr |  -.1603141   .1331971    -1.20   0.229    -.4213757    .1007474
intensity_l~l |  -.1952263   .1690995    -1.15   0.248    -.5266552    .1362026
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0246677   .0108032    -2.28   0.022    -.0458417   -.0034937
 vdem_rescale |  -.0180234   .0179266    -1.01   0.315    -.0531589     .017112
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0000611   .0032727    -0.02   0.985    -.0064755    .0063533
 active_dyads |  -.8748665   .1209135    -7.24   0.000    -1.111853   -.6378805
post_cold_war |   .4760661   .1374003     3.46   0.001     .2067666    .7453657
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_support 
> incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_d
> yads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          397             Number of obs    =       2,067
No. of failures      =          335
Time at risk         =  2695.797363
                                                Wald chi2(16)    =       98.69
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1385.1999             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 397 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .2015402   .2651228     0.76   0.447    -.3180909    .7211713
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.3625479   .2143258    -1.69   0.091    -.7826187    .0575229
 Theological  |   .4099114    .784981     0.52   0.602    -1.128623    1.948446
        Both  |   .0766808   .3054634     0.25   0.802    -.5220166    .6753781
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.2984542   .1808669    -1.65   0.099    -.6529468    .0560385
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |     .23476    .270261     0.87   0.385    -.2949418    .7644619
           1 #|
 Theological  |  -1.367081    .818552    -1.67   0.095    -2.971414    .2372512
      1#Both  |   -.968927   .4786856    -2.02   0.043    -1.907133   -.0307205
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .6175586   .2542205     2.43   0.015     .1192956    1.115822
              |
rebel_ext_s~t |  -.3194358    .123256    -2.59   0.010    -.5610132   -.0778585
  incomp_terr |  -.1670652   .1341896    -1.24   0.213     -.430072    .0959417
intensity_l~l |  -.2667903   .1762281    -1.51   0.130    -.6121911    .0786105
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0251091    .010637    -2.36   0.018    -.0459573   -.0042609
 vdem_rescale |  -.0206263   .0183726    -1.12   0.262    -.0566359    .0153833
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0002075   .0033443    -0.06   0.951    -.0067622    .0063472
 active_dyads |  -.9066062   .1225835    -7.40   0.000    -1.146866    -.666347
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ******
. * Table A3-A. “Risk” of Armed Conflict Termination – Monadic, 1950-2010, NAGs 
> Data *
. ******************************************************************************
> ******
. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_support incomp_terr intensity_level s
> ide_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) 
> nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          397             Number of obs    =       2,067
No. of failures      =          335
Time at risk         =  2695.797363
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       70.27
Log pseudolikelihood =     -1394.37             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 397 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.5724527   .1291114    -4.43   0.000    -.8255064   -.3193989
    rel_aff01 |   .3042651   .1836055     1.66   0.097    -.0555951    .6641253
rebel_ext_s~t |  -.3212489   .1239891    -2.59   0.010    -.5642631   -.0782348
  incomp_terr |  -.4385097   .1394129    -3.15   0.002    -.7117539   -.1652654
intensity_l~l |  -.2124093   .1682338    -1.26   0.207    -.5421414    .1173229
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0172847   .0107684    -1.61   0.108    -.0383904     .003821
 vdem_rescale |  -.0134896   .0166129    -0.81   0.417    -.0460502     .019071
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0013301   .0030237    -0.44   0.660    -.0072565    .0045962
 active_dyads |  -.8540418   .1187224    -7.19   0.000    -1.086734   -.6213501
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_support incomp_terr intensity_level s
> ide_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war, nohr efro
> n vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          397             Number of obs    =       2,067
No. of failures      =          335
Time at risk         =  2695.797363
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =       92.09
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1389.3694             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 397 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.5831835   .1257293    -4.64   0.000    -.8296083   -.3367586
    rel_aff01 |   .2632336   .1775725     1.48   0.138    -.0848021    .6112692
rebel_ext_s~t |  -.3464566   .1231961    -2.81   0.005    -.5879165   -.1049966
  incomp_terr |  -.3926341   .1367961    -2.87   0.004    -.6607495   -.1245188
intensity_l~l |  -.1806173   .1673121    -1.08   0.280     -.508543    .1473083
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0239256   .0109181    -2.19   0.028    -.0453247   -.0025264
 vdem_rescale |  -.0175783   .0163375    -1.08   0.282    -.0495992    .0144426
vdem_rescal~q |    .000311   .0030422     0.10   0.919    -.0056515    .0062736
 active_dyads |  -.8772395    .117981    -7.44   0.000    -1.108478   -.6460009
post_cold_war |   .3991054   .1300086     3.07   0.002     .1442932    .6539175
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_ideology c.rel_aff01) rebel_ext_support incomp_t
> err intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, no
> hr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          397             Number of obs    =       2,067
No. of failures      =          335
Time at risk         =  2695.797363
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      104.74
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1385.8339             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 397 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |    1.25019   .3361563     3.72   0.000     .5913357    1.909044
claim_ideol~y |  -.3579761   .1919278    -1.87   0.062    -.7341476    .0181955
    rel_aff01 |   .5786909   .2342622     2.47   0.014     .1195454    1.037836
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.4022566   .2388699    -1.68   0.092    -.8704329    .0659197
              |
post_cold_war#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |  -.7099165    .354395    -2.00   0.045    -1.404518   -.0153151
              |
rebel_ext_s~t |  -.3549496   .1245482    -2.85   0.004    -.5990596   -.1108396
  incomp_terr |   -.370561   .1394321    -2.66   0.008    -.6438428   -.0972791
intensity_l~l |  -.2050302   .1678353    -1.22   0.222    -.5339814    .1239209
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0245695   .0109328    -2.25   0.025    -.0459974   -.0031416
 vdem_rescale |  -.0191259   .0163098    -1.17   0.241    -.0510925    .0128407
vdem_rescal~q |   .0003843    .003055     0.13   0.900    -.0056035     .006372
 active_dyads |  -.8931734   .1190105    -7.50   0.000     -1.12643   -.6599172
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq
>  active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          397             Number of obs    =       2,067
No. of failures      =          335
Time at risk         =  2695.797363
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =       85.08
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1383.8128             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 397 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.7974496   .1587884    -5.02   0.000    -1.108669     -.48623
 claim_libdem |  -.3210995   .1727197    -1.86   0.063    -.6596238    .0174248
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .5229543   .1590085     3.29   0.001     .2113034    .8346051
Christian-~l  |   .5619036   .5153829     1.09   0.276    -.4482283    1.572035
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .2294739   .1590764     1.44   0.149    -.0823102     .541258
Muslim-The~l  |  -.3570968   .2234922    -1.60   0.110    -.7951334    .0809399
              |
rebel_ext_s~t |   -.378037   .1266688    -2.98   0.003    -.6263033   -.1297707
  incomp_terr |  -.3844417   .1389184    -2.77   0.006    -.6567168   -.1121666
intensity_l~l |  -.2945346   .1792097    -1.64   0.100    -.6457792      .05671
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0248914   .0105907    -2.35   0.019    -.0456489    -.004134
 vdem_rescale |  -.0074657   .0164291    -0.45   0.650    -.0396662    .0247348
vdem_rescal~q |   -.001728   .0029647    -0.58   0.560    -.0075387    .0040827
 active_dyads |  -.8785019   .1209886    -7.26   0.000    -1.115635   -.6413685
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq
>  active_dyads post_cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          397             Number of obs    =       2,067
No. of failures      =          335
Time at risk         =  2695.797363
                                                Wald chi2(14)    =       99.04
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1379.9308             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 397 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.6883014   .1670985    -4.12   0.000    -1.015808   -.3607944
 claim_libdem |  -.3353476   .1686553    -1.99   0.047    -.6659059   -.0047893
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .5208343   .1568178     3.32   0.001     .2134772    .8281915
Christian-~l  |   .4184599   .5109203     0.82   0.413    -.5829255    1.419845
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .1789161   .1591784     1.12   0.261    -.1330678    .4908999
Muslim-The~l  |  -.5009017   .2341007    -2.14   0.032    -.9597306   -.0420729
              |
rebel_ext_s~t |  -.3793693   .1261437    -3.01   0.003    -.6266065   -.1321322
  incomp_terr |  -.3200945   .1395424    -2.29   0.022    -.5935926   -.0465964
intensity_l~l |  -.2824025   .1789982    -1.58   0.115    -.6332325    .0684274
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0298789   .0107409    -2.78   0.005    -.0509306   -.0088272
 vdem_rescale |   -.012624   .0162175    -0.78   0.436    -.0444098    .0191617
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0000322    .003037    -0.01   0.992    -.0059846    .0059202
 active_dyads |  -.8930222    .121323    -7.36   0.000    -1.130811   -.6552335
post_cold_war |   .3793027   .1416474     2.68   0.007     .1016788    .6569265
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_communist c.claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_
> claim_type) rebel_ext_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_re
> scale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          397             Number of obs    =       2,067
No. of failures      =          335
Time at risk         =  2695.797363
                                                Wald chi2(20)    =      119.47
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1372.9498             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 397 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .7510847   .2697699     2.78   0.005     .2223454    1.279824
claim_commu~t |   -.677676   .2087259    -3.25   0.001    -1.086771   -.2685808
 claim_libdem |  -.5017318   .2739926    -1.83   0.067    -1.038747    .0352838
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .6138516   .2335352     2.63   0.009      .156131    1.071572
Christian-~l  |   .7877575   .7991162     0.99   0.324    -.7784815    2.353997
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .4600497   .2292818     2.01   0.045     .0106657    .9094338
Muslim-The~l  |   .6038522   .3351848     1.80   0.072     -.053098    1.260802
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |   -.079106   .2974267    -0.27   0.790    -.6620517    .5038397
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |   .2874727   .3380002     0.85   0.395    -.3749955     .949941
              |
post_cold_war#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |  -.2929259   .3252948    -0.90   0.368    -.9304921    .3446402
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |  -.6555716   .7870478    -0.83   0.405    -2.198157    .8870138
              |
post_cold_war#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.6439702   .3329683    -1.93   0.053    -1.296576    .0086356
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -1.624132   .4694276    -3.46   0.001    -2.544193   -.7040706
              |
rebel_ext_s~t |  -.3815635   .1259864    -3.03   0.002    -.6284923   -.1346347
  incomp_terr |  -.3467804   .1421121    -2.44   0.015    -.6253151   -.0682458
intensity_l~l |  -.2909948   .1810314    -1.61   0.108    -.6458098    .0638202
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0273675   .0112052    -2.44   0.015    -.0493293   -.0054057
 vdem_rescale |   -.013632   .0171523    -0.79   0.427      -.04725     .019986
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0011741   .0031378    -0.37   0.708     -.007324    .0049758
 active_dyads |  -.9039991   .1194024    -7.57   0.000    -1.138024   -.6699746
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. **************************
. * SET DATA AS PANEL DATA *
. **************************
. 
. xtset dyad_id_rev year
       panel variable:  dyad_id_rev (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2017, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> **************************
. * Table A4-A. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Any Ideological Incompatibi
> lity - Dyadic, NAGs Data *
. ******************************************************************************
> **************************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_support
>  incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if 
> obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used


Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(67)     =     341.58
Log pseudolikelihood  = -755.99234              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .5770599   .5506665     1.05   0.295    -.5022267    1.656347
incomp_rel_~f |   .8909259   .3975561     2.24   0.025     .1117304    1.670121
rebel_ext_s~t |   .4983881   .3364841     1.48   0.139    -.1611086    1.157885
  incomp_terr |  -.8220793   .4683065    -1.76   0.079    -1.739943    .0957845
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0672616    .034333    -1.96   0.050    -.1345529    .0000298
 vdem_rescale |  -.0354458   .0605692    -0.59   0.558    -.1541593    .0832676
vdem_rescal~q |   .0030745   .0081979     0.38   0.708     -.012993     .019142
 active_dyads |   .1175512   .1573867     0.75   0.455     -.190921    .4260235
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.006124   1.365189    -0.74   0.461    -3.681845    1.669597
        1952  |  -1.473226   1.472257    -1.00   0.317    -4.358797    1.412345
        1953  |   .1661512   1.507918     0.11   0.912    -2.789314    3.121616
        1954  |  -3.002494   1.624602    -1.85   0.065    -6.186655    .1816667
        1955  |   -1.28011   2.171793    -0.59   0.556    -5.536747    2.976526
        1956  |  -2.362678   2.332377    -1.01   0.311    -6.934054    2.208698
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.538145   1.890555    -0.81   0.416    -5.243565    2.167275
        1959  |  -2.492427   2.072896    -1.20   0.229    -6.555228    1.570374
        1960  |  -3.490154   1.593356    -2.19   0.028    -6.613075   -.3672335
        1961  |  -.8092878   1.612178    -0.50   0.616    -3.969099    2.350524
        1962  |  -.2157931   1.636591    -0.13   0.895    -3.423452    2.991866
        1963  |  -.2518827   1.621782    -0.16   0.877    -3.430518    2.926753
        1964  |  -.8967363   1.487631    -0.60   0.547     -3.81244    2.018968
        1965  |  -1.161352   1.510708    -0.77   0.442    -4.122285    1.799582
        1966  |  -1.090791   1.473786    -0.74   0.459    -3.979358    1.797777
        1967  |  -1.191525   1.476817    -0.81   0.420    -4.086032    1.702983
        1968  |  -1.482081   1.334604    -1.11   0.267    -4.097857    1.133695
        1969  |  -1.195894   1.375541    -0.87   0.385    -3.891905    1.500117
        1970  |  -1.122896   1.474323    -0.76   0.446    -4.012515    1.766724
        1971  |  -.2145568     1.2969    -0.17   0.869    -2.756434     2.32732
        1972  |  -1.778018   1.563898    -1.14   0.256    -4.843203    1.287166
        1973  |   -2.50443   1.742321    -1.44   0.151    -5.919316    .9104553
        1974  |  -.8828379    1.51265    -0.58   0.559    -3.847578    2.081902
        1975  |  -.7518048   1.433697    -0.52   0.600    -3.561799     2.05819
        1976  |  -.5576992   1.371683    -0.41   0.684    -3.246149    2.130751
        1977  |  -1.029925   1.382497    -0.74   0.456    -3.739569    1.679719
        1978  |   .1941237   1.427619     0.14   0.892    -2.603958    2.992205
        1979  |  -1.111265   1.381717    -0.80   0.421     -3.81938     1.59685
        1980  |  -.9088665    1.39071    -0.65   0.513    -3.634608    1.816875
        1981  |  -1.046419   1.439535    -0.73   0.467    -3.867855    1.775018
        1982  |  -.6820877   1.379193    -0.49   0.621    -3.385256    2.021081
        1983  |  -.6224326   1.392468    -0.45   0.655    -3.351619    2.106754
        1984  |  -.5327017   1.357446    -0.39   0.695    -3.193247    2.127844
        1985  |  -.7765662   1.383133    -0.56   0.574    -3.487457    1.934325
        1986  |  -1.226981   1.415331    -0.87   0.386     -4.00098    1.547017
        1987  |  -.9621982   1.408566    -0.68   0.495    -3.722936     1.79854
        1988  |  -.2153978   1.363991    -0.16   0.875    -2.888771    2.457975
        1989  |  -1.849616   1.394263    -1.33   0.185    -4.582322      .88309
        1990  |  -1.514197   1.439313    -1.05   0.293    -4.335198    1.306804
        1991  |  -1.755945   1.444414    -1.22   0.224    -4.586945    1.075055
        1992  |  -.8616977   1.428017    -0.60   0.546     -3.66056    1.937164
        1993  |  -1.574781   1.447951    -1.09   0.277    -4.412714    1.263151
        1994  |  -1.650159   1.501192    -1.10   0.272    -4.592441    1.292123
        1995  |  -1.670383   1.508394    -1.11   0.268    -4.626781    1.286015
        1996  |  -1.799354   1.457888    -1.23   0.217    -4.656761    1.058054
        1997  |  -1.766034   1.448196    -1.22   0.223    -4.604445    1.072377
        1998  |  -.9398717   1.432335    -0.66   0.512    -3.747196    1.867452
        1999  |  -.9645893   1.429896    -0.67   0.500    -3.767134    1.837956
        2000  |  -1.649077   1.443893    -1.14   0.253    -4.479055    1.180901
        2001  |  -2.109807   1.427865    -1.48   0.140     -4.90837    .6887571
        2002  |  -1.439421   1.573847    -0.91   0.360    -4.524104    1.645263
        2003  |  -2.388884   1.703828    -1.40   0.161    -5.728326    .9505578
        2004  |  -1.228001   1.581296    -0.78   0.437    -4.327284    1.871282
        2005  |  -2.022278   1.677914    -1.21   0.228     -5.31093    1.266373
        2006  |  -3.195168   1.499816    -2.13   0.033    -6.134752   -.2555836
        2007  |  -2.755299   1.549431    -1.78   0.075    -5.792127    .2815297
        2008  |  -2.693457   1.470112    -1.83   0.067    -5.574823    .1879094
        2009  |  -2.206257   1.456953    -1.51   0.130    -5.061833    .6493188
        2010  |  -2.819275   1.494959    -1.89   0.059     -5.74934    .1107897
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |  -1.558084   1.433522    -1.09   0.277    -4.367735    1.251568
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.957724   .2063894                      1.553208     2.36224
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.661425   .2746451                      2.174076    3.258021
          rho |   .6828448   .0446973                      .5896117    .7633966
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_support
>  incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_
> war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2010.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(67)     =     341.58
Log pseudolikelihood  = -755.99234              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .5770599   .5506665     1.05   0.295    -.5022267    1.656347
incomp_rel_~f |   .8909259   .3975561     2.24   0.025     .1117304    1.670121
rebel_ext_s~t |   .4983881   .3364841     1.48   0.139    -.1611086    1.157885
  incomp_terr |  -.8220793   .4683065    -1.76   0.079    -1.739943    .0957845
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0672616    .034333    -1.96   0.050    -.1345529    .0000298
 vdem_rescale |  -.0354458   .0605692    -0.59   0.558    -.1541593    .0832676
vdem_rescal~q |   .0030745   .0081979     0.38   0.708     -.012993     .019142
 active_dyads |   .1175512   .1573867     0.75   0.455     -.190921    .4260235
post_cold_war |  -2.819275   1.494959    -1.89   0.059     -5.74934    .1107897
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.006124   1.365189    -0.74   0.461    -3.681845    1.669597
        1952  |  -1.473226   1.472257    -1.00   0.317    -4.358797    1.412345
        1953  |   .1661512   1.507918     0.11   0.912    -2.789314    3.121616
        1954  |  -3.002494   1.624602    -1.85   0.065    -6.186655    .1816667
        1955  |   -1.28011   2.171793    -0.59   0.556    -5.536747    2.976526
        1956  |  -2.362678   2.332377    -1.01   0.311    -6.934054    2.208698
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.538145   1.890555    -0.81   0.416    -5.243565    2.167275
        1959  |  -2.492427   2.072896    -1.20   0.229    -6.555228    1.570374
        1960  |  -3.490154   1.593356    -2.19   0.028    -6.613075   -.3672335
        1961  |  -.8092878   1.612178    -0.50   0.616    -3.969099    2.350524
        1962  |  -.2157931   1.636591    -0.13   0.895    -3.423452    2.991866
        1963  |  -.2518827   1.621782    -0.16   0.877    -3.430518    2.926753
        1964  |  -.8967363   1.487631    -0.60   0.547     -3.81244    2.018968
        1965  |  -1.161352   1.510708    -0.77   0.442    -4.122285    1.799582
        1966  |  -1.090791   1.473786    -0.74   0.459    -3.979358    1.797777
        1967  |  -1.191525   1.476817    -0.81   0.420    -4.086032    1.702983
        1968  |  -1.482081   1.334604    -1.11   0.267    -4.097857    1.133695
        1969  |  -1.195894   1.375541    -0.87   0.385    -3.891905    1.500117
        1970  |  -1.122896   1.474323    -0.76   0.446    -4.012515    1.766724
        1971  |  -.2145568     1.2969    -0.17   0.869    -2.756434     2.32732
        1972  |  -1.778018   1.563898    -1.14   0.256    -4.843203    1.287166
        1973  |   -2.50443   1.742321    -1.44   0.151    -5.919316    .9104553
        1974  |  -.8828379    1.51265    -0.58   0.559    -3.847578    2.081902
        1975  |  -.7518048   1.433697    -0.52   0.600    -3.561799     2.05819
        1976  |  -.5576992   1.371683    -0.41   0.684    -3.246149    2.130751
        1977  |  -1.029925   1.382497    -0.74   0.456    -3.739569    1.679719
        1978  |   .1941237   1.427619     0.14   0.892    -2.603958    2.992205
        1979  |  -1.111265   1.381717    -0.80   0.421     -3.81938     1.59685
        1980  |  -.9088665    1.39071    -0.65   0.513    -3.634608    1.816875
        1981  |  -1.046419   1.439535    -0.73   0.467    -3.867855    1.775018
        1982  |  -.6820877   1.379193    -0.49   0.621    -3.385256    2.021081
        1983  |  -.6224326   1.392468    -0.45   0.655    -3.351619    2.106754
        1984  |  -.5327017   1.357446    -0.39   0.695    -3.193247    2.127844
        1985  |  -.7765662   1.383133    -0.56   0.574    -3.487457    1.934325
        1986  |  -1.226981   1.415331    -0.87   0.386     -4.00098    1.547017
        1987  |  -.9621982   1.408566    -0.68   0.495    -3.722936     1.79854
        1988  |  -.2153978   1.363991    -0.16   0.875    -2.888771    2.457975
        1989  |  -1.849616   1.394263    -1.33   0.185    -4.582322      .88309
        1990  |  -1.514197   1.439313    -1.05   0.293    -4.335198    1.306804
        1991  |    1.06333   .8586526     1.24   0.216    -.6195982    2.746258
        1992  |   1.957578   .7804156     2.51   0.012     .4279911    3.487164
        1993  |   1.244494   .8196628     1.52   0.129    -.3620158    2.851003
        1994  |   1.169116    .877098     1.33   0.183    -.5499641    2.888197
        1995  |   1.148892   .9001617     1.28   0.202    -.6153921    2.913177
        1996  |   1.019922   .8876716     1.15   0.251    -.7198828    2.759726
        1997  |   1.053241    .836124     1.26   0.208    -.5855318    2.692014
        1998  |   1.879404   .8061135     2.33   0.020     .2994501    3.459357
        1999  |   1.854686    .802429     2.31   0.021     .2819539    3.427418
        2000  |   1.170198    .834107     1.40   0.161    -.4646215    2.805018
        2001  |   .7094685   .8165631     0.87   0.385    -.8909658    2.309903
        2002  |   1.379854    .920739     1.50   0.134    -.4247609     3.18447
        2003  |    .430391   1.255462     0.34   0.732     -2.03027    2.891052
        2004  |   1.591274   1.095165     1.45   0.146    -.5552095    3.737758
        2005  |   .7969971   1.063262     0.75   0.454    -1.286958    2.880952
        2006  |  -.3758928   .5514763    -0.68   0.495    -1.456766    .7049808
        2007  |   .0639765   .7745814     0.08   0.934    -1.454175    1.582128
        2008  |   .1258185   .3080344     0.41   0.683    -.4779178    .7295549
        2009  |   .6130181   .4842046     1.27   0.206    -.3360054    1.562042
        2010  |          0  (omitted)
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |  -1.558084   1.433522    -1.09   0.277    -4.367735    1.251568
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.957724   .2063894                      1.553208     2.36224
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.661425   .2746451                      2.174076    3.258021
          rho |   .6828448   .0446973                      .5896117    .7633966
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_a
> ff) rebel_ext_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq ac
> tive_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2010.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(69)     =     351.70
Log pseudolikelihood  =   -755.857              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.165392   1.723051    -1.84   0.066    -6.542509    .2117255
incomp_ideo~l |   .4541003   .7346376     0.62   0.536     -.985763    1.893964
incomp_rel_~f |   .8233886   .4998494     1.65   0.100    -.1562983    1.803076
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |    .299939   .7005151     0.43   0.669    -1.073045    1.672923
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .1198617   .7708447     0.16   0.876    -1.390966     1.63069
              |
rebel_ext_s~t |   .4961744   .3401963     1.46   0.145    -.1705981    1.162947
  incomp_terr |  -.8082588   .4761522    -1.70   0.090      -1.7415    .1249824
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0674122   .0347649    -1.94   0.052    -.1355502    .0007257
 vdem_rescale |  -.0365135    .061232    -0.60   0.551     -.156526    .0834989
vdem_rescal~q |   .0024303    .008217     0.30   0.767    -.0136747    .0185353
 active_dyads |   .1157146   .1625423     0.71   0.477    -.2028625    .4342917
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.003346    1.36429    -0.74   0.462    -3.677306    1.670615
        1952  |  -1.473239      1.475    -1.00   0.318    -4.364185    1.417707
        1953  |   .1540912   1.501569     0.10   0.918    -2.788931    3.097113
        1954  |  -3.008792   1.622905    -1.85   0.064    -6.189627    .1720429
        1955  |  -1.299288   2.156732    -0.60   0.547    -5.526405    2.927829
        1956  |  -2.353637   2.320079    -1.01   0.310    -6.900908    2.193633
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.556889    1.88362    -0.83   0.408    -5.248715    2.134938
        1959  |  -2.494628     2.0672    -1.21   0.228    -6.546265    1.557008
        1960  |  -3.515956   1.597897    -2.20   0.028    -6.647776    -.384135
        1961  |  -.8343555   1.612897    -0.52   0.605    -3.995575    2.326864
        1962  |  -.2393556   1.638737    -0.15   0.884    -3.451222    2.972511
        1963  |   -.298963   1.666741    -0.18   0.858    -3.565716     2.96779
        1964  |  -.9379641    1.52202    -0.62   0.538    -3.921069    2.045141
        1965  |  -1.204307   1.540564    -0.78   0.434    -4.223757    1.815144
        1966  |  -1.134033   1.509602    -0.75   0.453    -4.092798    1.824732
        1967  |   -1.23137   1.514034    -0.81   0.416    -4.198822    1.736083
        1968  |  -1.520559     1.3493    -1.13   0.260    -4.165139    1.124021
        1969  |  -1.237545   1.392789    -0.89   0.374    -3.967361    1.492271
        1970  |   -1.16508   1.502586    -0.78   0.438    -4.110095    1.779935
        1971  |  -.2660471   1.333856    -0.20   0.842    -2.880357    2.348263
        1972  |  -1.824426   1.598169    -1.14   0.254     -4.95678    1.307928
        1973  |  -2.528947   1.740901    -1.45   0.146     -5.94105    .8831562
        1974  |  -.9217456   1.536115    -0.60   0.548    -3.932476    2.088984
        1975  |  -.7900322   1.458988    -0.54   0.588    -3.649596    2.069532
        1976  |  -.6010764   1.392248    -0.43   0.666    -3.329832    2.127679
        1977  |  -1.073253   1.402227    -0.77   0.444    -3.821568    1.675061
        1978  |   .1473641   1.453187     0.10   0.919     -2.70083    2.995558
        1979  |  -1.160719   1.400585    -0.83   0.407    -3.905814    1.584376
        1980  |  -.9553974   1.408171    -0.68   0.497    -3.715362    1.804567
        1981  |  -1.091548   1.467345    -0.74   0.457    -3.967491    1.784396
        1982  |  -.7286407   1.401218    -0.52   0.603    -3.474977    2.017696
        1983  |  -.6660888    1.41924    -0.47   0.639    -3.447747     2.11557
        1984  |  -.5755542   1.387347    -0.41   0.678    -3.294704    2.143596
        1985  |  -.8201188   1.410988    -0.58   0.561    -3.585605    1.945368
        1986  |   -1.27866   1.440456    -0.89   0.375    -4.101903    1.544582
        1987  |  -1.010716   1.438813    -0.70   0.482    -3.830737    1.809305
        1988  |  -.2655237   1.386764    -0.19   0.848    -2.983531    2.452484
        1989  |   -1.89809   1.415477    -1.34   0.180    -4.672374     .876194
        1990  |  -1.561821   1.458669    -1.07   0.284    -4.420761    1.297118
        1991  |    1.08917   .8610583     1.26   0.206     -.598473    2.776813
        1992  |   1.976002    .794629     2.49   0.013     .4185581    3.533447
        1993  |    1.25658    .824361     1.52   0.127    -.3591381    2.872297
        1994  |   1.194816   .8905761     1.34   0.180    -.5506806    2.940314
        1995  |   1.163573    .911162     1.28   0.202    -.6222716    2.949418
        1996  |   1.028187   .8980939     1.14   0.252    -.7320445    2.788419
        1997  |   1.057716   .8450561     1.25   0.211    -.5985634    2.713995
        1998  |     1.8846   .8156503     2.31   0.021     .2859552    3.483245
        1999  |    1.85265    .810621     2.29   0.022     .2638618    3.441438
        2000  |   1.168509   .8330089     1.40   0.161    -.4641587    2.801176
        2001  |   .6988764   .8223597     0.85   0.395     -.912919    2.310672
        2002  |   1.375035   .9266635     1.48   0.138    -.4411923    3.191262
        2003  |   .4438677   1.251785     0.35   0.723    -2.009585    2.897321
        2004  |   1.590114    1.09415     1.45   0.146    -.5543799    3.734609
        2005  |   .7884715   1.075966     0.73   0.464    -1.320384    2.897327
        2006  |  -.3869104   .5449458    -0.71   0.478    -1.454985    .6811637
        2007  |   .0486994   .7719977     0.06   0.950    -1.464388    1.561787
        2008  |   .1167108   .3035607     0.38   0.701    -.4782574    .7116789
        2009  |   .6073846   .4834026     1.26   0.209    -.3400671    1.554836
        2010  |          0  (omitted)
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |   -1.35738   1.543451    -0.88   0.379    -4.382489    1.667729
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.947025   .2099758                      1.535479     2.35857
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.647226   .2779267                       2.15489    3.252047
          rho |   .6805232   .0456511                      .5853153     .762733
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_support incomp_te
> rr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l
> 1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6507706.8  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =   -4346764  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3628701.6  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1360262.1  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -759208.65  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -431531.45  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -352223.94  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -349296.42  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -349281.68  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -349281.68  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -252965.9  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5493.7769  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5485.8641  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5131.4093  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5128.7378  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5079.4986  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5032.0842  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5024.1266  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5024.0739  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5024.0739  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -76946.379  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -11240.935  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -9143.1936  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5751.6659  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -5161.095  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5105.7225  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4897.9924  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4822.7753  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4812.0261  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4811.6667  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4811.6599  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -4811.6599  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        690
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        152

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.5
                                                              max =         21

                                                Wald chi2(32)     =      63.78
Log likelihood  = -4811.6599                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0007

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.0946469   .1245888    -0.76   0.447    -.3388365    .1495427
incomp_rel_~f |   .1541988   .1117947     1.38   0.168    -.0649147    .3733123
rebel_ext_s~t |   .0759453   .0871508     0.87   0.384    -.0948671    .2467576
  incomp_terr |  -.2280812   .1257122    -1.81   0.070    -.4744727    .0183102
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0096561   .0130034    -0.74   0.458    -.0351423    .0158302
 vdem_rescale |   .0188131   .0125177     1.50   0.133    -.0057211    .0433473
vdem_rescal~q |   .0004724   .0023549     0.20   0.841    -.0041431    .0050878
     rcd_loot |   .0666778    .094833     0.70   0.482    -.1191914     .252547
    rcd_crime |   .4193924    .103153     4.07   0.000     .2172163    .6215685
 active_dyads |  -.0127921   .0480286    -0.27   0.790    -.1069264    .0813422
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000507   .0000126     4.03   0.000     .0000261    .0000754
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2315539   .1771787    -1.31   0.191    -.5788178    .1157101
        1992  |   .1245997   .1766001     0.71   0.480    -.2215302    .4707295
        1993  |   .0046807   .1797143     0.03   0.979    -.3475529    .3569142
        1994  |  -.0490528   .1827578    -0.27   0.788    -.4072515     .309146
        1995  |   -.223459   .1855712    -1.20   0.229    -.5871719    .1402539
        1996  |  -.0192544   .1938791    -0.10   0.921    -.3992505    .3607417
        1997  |   -.134957   .1953327    -0.69   0.490    -.5178021    .2478881
        1998  |  -.1141845   .1890099    -0.60   0.546    -.4846371    .2562681
        1999  |  -.1032879   .1878913    -0.55   0.583     -.471548    .2649723
        2000  |  -.1092374   .1868094    -0.58   0.559     -.475377    .2569022
        2001  |  -.3449195   .1892397    -1.82   0.068    -.7158224    .0259834
        2002  |  -.0430693   .1839276    -0.23   0.815    -.4035608    .3174223
        2003  |  -.3537846   .1975153    -1.79   0.073    -.7409074    .0333382
        2004  |  -.1971523    .195677    -1.01   0.314    -.5806722    .1863675
        2005  |  -.2291281   .2066896    -1.11   0.268    -.6342323    .1759761
        2006  |  -.2388252   .1975417    -1.21   0.227    -.6259998    .1483495
        2007  |  -.1393569   .2002633    -0.70   0.487    -.5318657    .2531519
        2008  |  -.1416248   .1950187    -0.73   0.468    -.5238544    .2406048
        2009  |  -.1221903   .1927675    -0.63   0.526    -.5000077     .255627
        2010  |  -.2936616   .2016123    -1.46   0.145    -.6888145    .1014912
        2014  |  -.8877958   1.041013    -0.85   0.394    -2.928143    1.152552
              |
        _cons |   .4973408    .374531     1.33   0.184    -.2367265    1.231408
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.1165932   .1267792                     -.3650759    .1318895
        /ln_s |   4.536547   .2177842                      4.109698    4.963396
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .8899472   .1128268                       .694144    1.140982
            s |   93.36784   20.33404                       60.9283    143.0789
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 424.83               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_support incomp_te
> rr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l
> 1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 46 groups (46 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -228629.99  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -13028.841  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -9255.593  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6463.2503  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4592.7756  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4196.6543  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -3928.7103  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -3812.4226  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -3742.0828  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -3674.9095  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -3552.5532  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -3544.8145  
Iteration 12:  log likelihood = -3544.7158  
Iteration 13:  log likelihood = -3544.7158  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        644
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        106

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.1
                                                              max =         21

                                                Wald chi2(31)     =      78.11
Log likelihood  = -3544.7158                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.1933975   .1507238    -1.28   0.199    -.4888108    .1020158
incomp_rel_~f |   .2026959   .1326748     1.53   0.127    -.0573419    .4627336
rebel_ext_s~t |   .0313352    .096743     0.32   0.746    -.1582775     .220948
  incomp_terr |  -.2360442    .145545    -1.62   0.105    -.5213073    .0492188
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0160391     .01683     0.95   0.341    -.0169471    .0490254
 vdem_rescale |   .0424241   .0136615     3.11   0.002      .015648    .0692002
vdem_rescal~q |    .002541   .0025308     1.00   0.315    -.0024192    .0075013
     rcd_loot |  -.0257142   .1047561    -0.25   0.806    -.2310323    .1796039
    rcd_crime |   .5134488   .1135865     4.52   0.000     .2908232    .7360743
 active_dyads |   .0177834   .0534477     0.33   0.739    -.0869721    .1225388
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000375   .0000142     2.64   0.008     9.61e-06    .0000654
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2500559   .1796983    -1.39   0.164    -.6022582    .1021464
        1992  |   .0745201   .1876927     0.40   0.691    -.2933507     .442391
        1993  |  -.1199086   .1964139    -0.61   0.542    -.5048727    .2650556
        1994  |  -.1863351   .2002308    -0.93   0.352    -.5787802      .20611
        1995  |  -.3326827   .1987775    -1.67   0.094    -.7222795    .0569141
        1996  |  -.1233925   .2059065    -0.60   0.549    -.5269618    .2801768
        1997  |  -.3009446   .2086055    -1.44   0.149    -.7098038    .1079146
        1998  |  -.2857674   .2040492    -1.40   0.161    -.6856965    .1141617
        1999  |  -.2838463   .2039748    -1.39   0.164    -.6836296     .115937
        2000  |  -.2667216   .1988927    -1.34   0.180    -.6565442     .123101
        2001  |  -.4895098   .2000142    -2.45   0.014    -.8815303   -.0974892
        2002  |  -.1827128   .1930189    -0.95   0.344    -.5610228    .1955972
        2003  |  -.5159444   .2078153    -2.48   0.013    -.9232548    -.108634
        2004  |  -.3548408   .2044523    -1.74   0.083    -.7555599    .0458782
        2005  |  -.4201581   .2165925    -1.94   0.052    -.8446715    .0043553
        2006  |  -.4052372   .2090669    -1.94   0.053    -.8150008    .0045264
        2007  |  -.3319908   .2137788    -1.55   0.120    -.7509895    .0870079
        2008  |   -.355128   .2145807    -1.65   0.098    -.7756984    .0654425
        2009  |  -.2897814   .2106524    -1.38   0.169    -.7026525    .1230896
        2010  |   -.499304   .2216684    -2.25   0.024     -.933766    -.064842
              |
        _cons |   .0560635   .4749121     0.12   0.906    -.8747472    .9868742
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *********************************
. * Table A5-A. Determinants of Conflict Intensity – Specific ideological Incomp
> atibilities – Dyadic, NAGs Data *
. ******************************************************************************
> *********************************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_support
>  incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if 
> obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.4019  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -970.99276  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -963.17384  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -963.10849  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -963.10848  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -963.10848
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -911.16611
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -876.94978
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -852.13001
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood =  -833.1935
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -818.35256
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -807.08235
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood =  -800.8121
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood =  -799.4191

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -800.78578  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -759.8738  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.19087  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.17541  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.17541  (backed up)
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -755.1754  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(69)     =     350.61
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -755.1754              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .4976069   .6270422     0.79   0.427    -.7313733    1.726587
 Theological  |    1.23847   .6845853     1.81   0.070    -.1032927    2.580232
        Both  |   .4968127   .6152978     0.81   0.419    -.7091488    1.702774
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .8736169   .4017325     2.17   0.030     .0862356    1.660998
rebel_ext_s~t |   .5273394   .3367946     1.57   0.117    -.1327659    1.187445
  incomp_terr |  -.7409811   .4620658    -1.60   0.109    -1.646614    .1646513
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0654449   .0340782    -1.92   0.055     -.132237    .0013472
 vdem_rescale |   -.030833   .0603381    -0.51   0.609    -.1490934    .0874274
vdem_rescal~q |   .0031504   .0083012     0.38   0.704    -.0131196    .0194204
 active_dyads |   .1384528   .1570013     0.88   0.378    -.1692641    .4461697
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9853556   1.354075    -0.73   0.467    -3.639295    1.668583
        1952  |  -1.465873   1.460739    -1.00   0.316    -4.328869    1.397124
        1953  |   .1648105    1.50224     0.11   0.913    -2.779525    3.109146
        1954  |  -2.978464   1.617347    -1.84   0.066    -6.148406    .1914771
        1955  |  -1.292844   2.153332    -0.60   0.548    -5.513296    2.927608
        1956  |  -2.358328   2.318047    -1.02   0.309    -6.901617    2.184961
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.543416   1.880722    -0.82   0.412    -5.229563    2.142732
        1959  |   -2.49446   2.060223    -1.21   0.226    -6.532423    1.543504
        1960  |  -3.508377   1.585796    -2.21   0.027    -6.616479   -.4002748
        1961  |  -.8508938   1.603343    -0.53   0.596    -3.993389    2.291601
        1962  |  -.2533767   1.625896    -0.16   0.876    -3.440074     2.93332
        1963  |  -.3049702    1.62456    -0.19   0.851    -3.489048    2.879108
        1964  |  -.9471307   1.491942    -0.63   0.526    -3.871284    1.977023
        1965  |  -1.210471   1.512546    -0.80   0.424    -4.175007    1.754065
        1966  |  -1.152674   1.477186    -0.78   0.435    -4.047905    1.742557
        1967  |  -1.249112   1.484382    -0.84   0.400    -4.158448    1.660224
        1968  |   -1.54121   1.335395    -1.15   0.248    -4.158537    1.076117
        1969  |  -1.262724   1.376212    -0.92   0.359    -3.960049    1.434601
        1970  |  -1.192529   1.482839    -0.80   0.421    -4.098839    1.713781
        1971  |  -.2832494   1.305539    -0.22   0.828    -2.842058     2.27556
        1972  |   -1.84144   1.575487    -1.17   0.242    -4.929338    1.246458
        1973  |  -2.555149    1.73818    -1.47   0.142     -5.96192    .8516211
        1974  |  -.9489397    1.51849    -0.62   0.532    -3.925125    2.027245
        1975  |  -.8229401   1.438993    -0.57   0.567    -3.643314    1.997434
        1976  |  -.6275883   1.374441    -0.46   0.648    -3.321443    2.066266
        1977  |  -1.099713   1.384054    -0.79   0.427     -3.81241    1.612984
        1978  |   .1219721   1.430914     0.09   0.932    -2.682568    2.926513
        1979  |  -1.174728   1.383644    -0.85   0.396     -3.88662    1.537164
        1980  |  -.9751283   1.397034    -0.70   0.485    -3.713265    1.763008
        1981  |  -1.119572   1.449929    -0.77   0.440    -3.961381    1.722236
        1982  |  -.7635451   1.389317    -0.55   0.583    -3.486555    1.959465
        1983  |  -.7043092   1.401592    -0.50   0.615    -3.451379     2.04276
        1984  |  -.6226572    1.36552    -0.46   0.648    -3.299026    2.053712
        1985  |  -.8635535   1.390501    -0.62   0.535    -3.588885    1.861778
        1986  |  -1.324455   1.427307    -0.93   0.353    -4.121925    1.473015
        1987  |  -1.058545   1.425156    -0.74   0.458    -3.851799    1.734709
        1988  |  -.3158814   1.372604    -0.23   0.818    -3.006136    2.374374
        1989  |  -1.929993   1.406989    -1.37   0.170    -4.687641    .8276554
        1990  |  -1.603192   1.461967    -1.10   0.273    -4.468595    1.262211
        1991  |  -1.859429   1.467752    -1.27   0.205    -4.736171    1.017312
        1992  |  -1.045398   1.485845    -0.70   0.482    -3.957602    1.866805
        1993  |  -1.759607   1.509538    -1.17   0.244    -4.718247    1.199034
        1994  |  -1.837805   1.555215    -1.18   0.237    -4.885969     1.21036
        1995  |  -1.867232   1.558326    -1.20   0.231    -4.921495    1.187031
        1996  |  -1.993576   1.506875    -1.32   0.186    -4.946997     .959846
        1997  |  -1.922689   1.490246    -1.29   0.197    -4.843518    .9981403
        1998  |  -1.099271   1.477168    -0.74   0.457    -3.994468    1.795926
        1999  |  -1.171154   1.501394    -0.78   0.435    -4.113832    1.771524
        2000  |  -1.857667   1.494786    -1.24   0.214    -4.787393    1.072059
        2001  |  -2.256151   1.471206    -1.53   0.125    -5.139663    .6273601
        2002  |  -1.588208   1.628112    -0.98   0.329    -4.779248    1.602833
        2003  |   -2.54988    1.76555    -1.44   0.149    -6.010295     .910535
        2004  |  -1.409579    1.64349    -0.86   0.391    -4.630759    1.811602
        2005  |  -2.156849   1.720294    -1.25   0.210    -5.528564    1.214866
        2006  |  -3.362789   1.557204    -2.16   0.031    -6.414853   -.3107254
        2007  |  -2.954464   1.607419    -1.84   0.066    -6.104947     .196018
        2008  |  -2.930043   1.528315    -1.92   0.055    -5.925484    .0653985
        2009  |  -2.443975   1.515254    -1.61   0.107    -5.413818    .5258686
        2010  |  -3.084034     1.5226    -2.03   0.043    -6.068274   -.0997927
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |  -1.520191   1.489081    -1.02   0.307    -4.438736    1.398354
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.926211   .2051392                      1.524145    2.328276
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.619819   .2687138                      2.142713    3.203161
          rho |   .6759811   .0449318                      .5825616    .7572072
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_support
>  incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_
> war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2010.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.4019  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -970.99276  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -963.17384  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -963.10849  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -963.10848  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -963.10848
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -911.16611
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -876.94978
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -852.13001
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood =  -833.1935
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -818.35256
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -807.08235
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood =  -800.8121
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood =  -799.4191

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -800.78578  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -759.8738  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.19087  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.17541  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.17541  (backed up)
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -755.1754  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(69)     =     350.61
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -755.1754              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .4976069   .6270422     0.79   0.427    -.7313733    1.726587
 Theological  |    1.23847   .6845853     1.81   0.070    -.1032927    2.580232
        Both  |   .4968127   .6152978     0.81   0.419    -.7091488    1.702774
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .8736169   .4017325     2.17   0.030     .0862356    1.660998
rebel_ext_s~t |   .5273394   .3367946     1.57   0.117    -.1327659    1.187445
  incomp_terr |  -.7409811   .4620658    -1.60   0.109    -1.646614    .1646513
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0654449   .0340782    -1.92   0.055     -.132237    .0013472
 vdem_rescale |   -.030833   .0603381    -0.51   0.609    -.1490934    .0874274
vdem_rescal~q |   .0031504   .0083012     0.38   0.704    -.0131196    .0194204
 active_dyads |   .1384528   .1570013     0.88   0.378    -.1692641    .4461697
post_cold_war |  -3.084034     1.5226    -2.03   0.043    -6.068274   -.0997927
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9853556   1.354075    -0.73   0.467    -3.639295    1.668583
        1952  |  -1.465873   1.460739    -1.00   0.316    -4.328869    1.397124
        1953  |   .1648105    1.50224     0.11   0.913    -2.779525    3.109146
        1954  |  -2.978464   1.617347    -1.84   0.066    -6.148406    .1914771
        1955  |  -1.292844   2.153332    -0.60   0.548    -5.513296    2.927608
        1956  |  -2.358328   2.318047    -1.02   0.309    -6.901617    2.184961
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.543416   1.880722    -0.82   0.412    -5.229563    2.142732
        1959  |   -2.49446   2.060223    -1.21   0.226    -6.532423    1.543504
        1960  |  -3.508377   1.585796    -2.21   0.027    -6.616479   -.4002748
        1961  |  -.8508938   1.603343    -0.53   0.596    -3.993389    2.291601
        1962  |  -.2533767   1.625896    -0.16   0.876    -3.440074     2.93332
        1963  |  -.3049702    1.62456    -0.19   0.851    -3.489048    2.879108
        1964  |  -.9471307   1.491942    -0.63   0.526    -3.871284    1.977023
        1965  |  -1.210471   1.512546    -0.80   0.424    -4.175007    1.754065
        1966  |  -1.152674   1.477186    -0.78   0.435    -4.047905    1.742557
        1967  |  -1.249112   1.484382    -0.84   0.400    -4.158448    1.660224
        1968  |   -1.54121   1.335395    -1.15   0.248    -4.158537    1.076117
        1969  |  -1.262724   1.376212    -0.92   0.359    -3.960049    1.434601
        1970  |  -1.192529   1.482839    -0.80   0.421    -4.098839    1.713781
        1971  |  -.2832494   1.305539    -0.22   0.828    -2.842058     2.27556
        1972  |   -1.84144   1.575487    -1.17   0.242    -4.929338    1.246458
        1973  |  -2.555149    1.73818    -1.47   0.142     -5.96192    .8516211
        1974  |  -.9489397    1.51849    -0.62   0.532    -3.925125    2.027245
        1975  |  -.8229401   1.438993    -0.57   0.567    -3.643314    1.997434
        1976  |  -.6275883   1.374441    -0.46   0.648    -3.321443    2.066266
        1977  |  -1.099713   1.384054    -0.79   0.427     -3.81241    1.612984
        1978  |   .1219721   1.430914     0.09   0.932    -2.682568    2.926513
        1979  |  -1.174728   1.383644    -0.85   0.396     -3.88662    1.537164
        1980  |  -.9751283   1.397034    -0.70   0.485    -3.713265    1.763008
        1981  |  -1.119572   1.449929    -0.77   0.440    -3.961381    1.722236
        1982  |  -.7635451   1.389317    -0.55   0.583    -3.486555    1.959465
        1983  |  -.7043092   1.401592    -0.50   0.615    -3.451379     2.04276
        1984  |  -.6226572    1.36552    -0.46   0.648    -3.299026    2.053712
        1985  |  -.8635535   1.390501    -0.62   0.535    -3.588885    1.861778
        1986  |  -1.324455   1.427307    -0.93   0.353    -4.121925    1.473015
        1987  |  -1.058545   1.425156    -0.74   0.458    -3.851799    1.734709
        1988  |  -.3158814   1.372604    -0.23   0.818    -3.006136    2.374374
        1989  |  -1.929993   1.406989    -1.37   0.170    -4.687641    .8276554
        1990  |  -1.603192   1.461967    -1.10   0.273    -4.468595    1.262211
        1991  |   1.224604   .8396174     1.46   0.145    -.4210156    2.870224
        1992  |   2.038635    .756473     2.69   0.007     .5559752    3.521295
        1993  |   1.324427   .7808437     1.70   0.090    -.2059987    2.854852
        1994  |   1.246229   .8483663     1.47   0.142    -.4165385    2.908996
        1995  |   1.216802   .8866335     1.37   0.170    -.5209679    2.954572
        1996  |   1.090458   .8785825     1.24   0.215    -.6315321    2.812448
        1997  |   1.161345   .8006972     1.45   0.147     -.407993    2.730683
        1998  |   1.984762   .7728929     2.57   0.010     .4699201    3.499604
        1999  |    1.91288   .7715416     2.48   0.013     .4006857    3.425073
        2000  |   1.226367   .8069584     1.52   0.129    -.3552427    2.807976
        2001  |   .8278822   .7788622     1.06   0.288    -.6986596    2.354424
        2002  |   1.495826   .8904668     1.68   0.093    -.2494571    3.241109
        2003  |   .5341535   1.241499     0.43   0.667    -1.899139    2.967446
        2004  |   1.674455   1.085339     1.54   0.123    -.4527713    3.801681
        2005  |   .9271844    1.03911     0.89   0.372    -1.109433    2.963802
        2006  |  -.2787555   .5206356    -0.54   0.592    -1.299182    .7416714
        2007  |   .1295691   .7563026     0.17   0.864    -1.352757    1.611895
        2008  |   .1539906   .3080589     0.50   0.617    -.4497938    .7577751
        2009  |   .6400587   .4780492     1.34   0.181    -.2969004    1.577018
        2010  |          0  (omitted)
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |  -1.520191   1.489081    -1.02   0.307    -4.438736    1.398354
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.926211   .2051392                      1.524145    2.328276
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.619819   .2687138                      2.142713    3.203161
          rho |   .6759811   .0449318                      .5825616    .7572072
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff
> ) rebel_ext_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq acti
> ve_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2010.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.4019  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -953.16847  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -942.75848  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -942.63891  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -942.63888  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -942.63888
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -896.47228
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -865.67088
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -842.94748
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -825.35547
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -811.74168
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -801.71499
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -794.58444
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -792.87419

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -795.03159  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -753.6314  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -748.02308  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -747.8235  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -747.81993  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -747.81993  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -747.81917  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -747.81917  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(73)     =     383.78
Log pseudolikelihood  = -747.81917              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.767373   1.738404    -2.17   0.030    -7.174582   -.3601639
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .2592123   .7689191     0.34   0.736    -1.247842    1.766266
 Theological  |   1.507489   .8324255     1.81   0.070    -.1240345    3.139014
        Both  |    1.70564   .8707819     1.96   0.050    -.0010617    3.412341
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .7453466   .5048143     1.48   0.140    -.2440713    1.734764
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |   .8196906   .7770568     1.05   0.291    -.7033126    2.342694
           1 #|
 Theological  |   .1209754   .7684346     0.16   0.875    -1.385129    1.627079
      1#Both  |  -2.155948   .9241282    -2.33   0.020    -3.967207   -.3446904
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .3645745   .7690941     0.47   0.635    -1.142822    1.871971
              |
rebel_ext_s~t |   .5445469   .3422718     1.59   0.112    -.1262935    1.215387
  incomp_terr |  -.7820205   .4754426    -1.64   0.100    -1.713871    .1498299
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0597153   .0341909    -1.75   0.081    -.1267281    .0072976
 vdem_rescale |  -.0324518   .0655282    -0.50   0.620    -.1608848    .0959812
vdem_rescal~q |    .003649   .0085024     0.43   0.668    -.0130154    .0203134
 active_dyads |   .0223427   .1552745     0.14   0.886    -.2819897    .3266752
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.004156   1.335653    -0.75   0.452    -3.621989    1.613676
        1952  |  -1.452306   1.450306    -1.00   0.317    -4.294853    1.390241
        1953  |   .0398624   1.421491     0.03   0.978    -2.746208    2.825933
        1954  |  -3.021966   1.607856    -1.88   0.060    -6.173305     .129374
        1955  |  -1.326651   2.129339    -0.62   0.533    -5.500079    2.846776
        1956  |  -2.373093    2.29074    -1.04   0.300     -6.86286    2.116674
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.618005   1.856242    -0.87   0.383    -5.256173    2.020163
        1959  |  -2.547353   2.056423    -1.24   0.215    -6.577869    1.483163
        1960  |  -3.617023   1.582534    -2.29   0.022    -6.718732   -.5153143
        1961  |  -1.017267    1.58991    -0.64   0.522    -4.133434    2.098899
        1962  |  -.4249728   1.617285    -0.26   0.793    -3.594792    2.744847
        1963  |  -.5425151   1.669387    -0.32   0.745    -3.814454    2.729424
        1964  |  -1.194475   1.521169    -0.79   0.432    -4.175911    1.786962
        1965  |  -1.457203   1.533306    -0.95   0.342    -4.462427    1.548021
        1966  |  -1.344906   1.511831    -0.89   0.374    -4.308042    1.618229
        1967  |  -1.455738    1.51477    -0.96   0.337    -4.424634    1.513157
        1968  |  -1.758172    1.33355    -1.32   0.187    -4.371883    .8555389
        1969  |  -1.489235   1.372602    -1.08   0.278    -4.179486    1.201016
        1970  |  -1.411633   1.483309    -0.95   0.341    -4.318865    1.495599
        1971  |  -.5286981   1.320818    -0.40   0.689    -3.117453    2.060057
        1972  |  -2.116094   1.583675    -1.34   0.181     -5.22004    .9878514
        1973  |  -2.770853   1.680273    -1.65   0.099    -6.064128    .5224213
        1974  |  -1.213283   1.516937    -0.80   0.424    -4.186425    1.759858
        1975  |  -1.057357   1.441637    -0.73   0.463    -3.882913    1.768199
        1976  |  -.8603604   1.381066    -0.62   0.533      -3.5672     1.84648
        1977  |  -1.320254   1.386529    -0.95   0.341    -4.037802    1.397294
        1978  |  -.1139739    1.44071    -0.08   0.937    -2.937713    2.709765
        1979  |  -1.511391   1.383066    -1.09   0.274    -4.222151     1.19937
        1980  |  -1.328666    1.39997    -0.95   0.343    -4.072556    1.415224
        1981  |  -1.446692   1.472923    -0.98   0.326    -4.333568    1.440183
        1982  |  -1.085523   1.394672    -0.78   0.436     -3.81903    1.647984
        1983  |  -1.007198    1.42611    -0.71   0.480    -3.802321    1.787925
        1984  |  -.8896759   1.388747    -0.64   0.522     -3.61157    1.832218
        1985  |  -1.138168   1.410676    -0.81   0.420    -3.903041    1.626706
        1986  |  -1.625831   1.444249    -1.13   0.260    -4.456506    1.204845
        1987  |   -1.35313   1.447783    -0.93   0.350    -4.190733    1.484473
        1988  |  -.5907133    1.39411    -0.42   0.672    -3.323119    2.141692
        1989  |  -2.316148   1.455957    -1.59   0.112    -5.169771    .5374746
        1990  |  -1.950152   1.509466    -1.29   0.196    -4.908652    1.008348
        1991  |   1.405119   .8430187     1.67   0.096    -.2471678    3.057405
        1992  |   2.013026   .7642656     2.63   0.008     .5150934     3.51096
        1993  |   1.369935   .7968821     1.72   0.086    -.1919257    2.931795
        1994  |   1.232847   .8520218     1.45   0.148     -.437085    2.902779
        1995  |   1.192001   .8780864     1.36   0.175    -.5290171    2.913018
        1996  |   1.120654   .8719704     1.29   0.199    -.5883763    2.829685
        1997  |    1.16468   .8070764     1.44   0.149    -.4171603    2.746521
        1998  |   1.975712   .7740174     2.55   0.011      .458666    3.492758
        1999  |   1.887208   .7852489     2.40   0.016     .3481485    3.426268
        2000  |   1.183617   .8268911     1.43   0.152      -.43706    2.804293
        2001  |   .8420847   .7941706     1.06   0.289    -.7144612    2.398631
        2002  |   1.526421    .919496     1.66   0.097    -.2757586      3.3286
        2003  |   .6824801   1.200373     0.57   0.570    -1.670208    3.035168
        2004  |    1.75876   1.074602     1.64   0.102    -.3474218    3.864941
        2005  |   .9465436     1.0694     0.89   0.376    -1.149441    3.042529
        2006  |  -.2397397   .5076115    -0.47   0.637     -1.23464    .7551607
        2007  |   .1268473    .756032     0.17   0.867    -1.354948    1.608643
        2008  |   .1308129   .2948356     0.44   0.657    -.4470543      .70868
        2009  |   .5975754   .4786507     1.25   0.212    -.3405627    1.535713
        2010  |          0  (omitted)
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |   -1.13913    1.58073    -0.72   0.471    -4.237304    1.959044
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.945099   .2099358                      1.533633    2.356566
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.644679   .2776063                      2.152901    3.248791
          rho |   .6801044   .0456741                      .5848669    .7623702
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_support incomp_te
> rr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l
> 1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6364271.7  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =   -3207619  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3178998.8  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1920777.4  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1563786.8  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -385470.02  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -341873.07  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -332871.94  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -332642.74  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -332631.85  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -332631.68  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -332631.68  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -252965.9  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5493.7769  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5485.8641  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5131.4093  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5128.7378  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5079.4061  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5043.3308  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5015.8291  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5015.3953  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5015.3943  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5015.3943  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -75667.31  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10758.333  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -8790.0273  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6302.7633  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -5480.099  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5200.5509  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4842.5465  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4810.5589  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4810.0648  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4810.0646  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        690
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        152

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.5
                                                              max =         21

                                                Wald chi2(34)     =      67.67
Log likelihood  = -4810.0646                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0005

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.1694418   .1408466    -1.20   0.229     -.445496    .1066124
 Theological  |   .1061563   .1654641     0.64   0.521    -.2181474    .4304599
        Both  |  -.1223085   .1534576    -0.80   0.425    -.4230798    .1784628
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .1611433    .120015     1.34   0.179    -.0740817    .3963683
rebel_ext_s~t |   .0814815   .0874545     0.93   0.351     -.089926    .2528891
  incomp_terr |  -.2216014   .1256746    -1.76   0.078     -.467919    .0247163
 side_a_lnGDP |    -.00867   .0129472    -0.67   0.503    -.0340461    .0167062
 vdem_rescale |   .0223841   .0127711     1.75   0.080    -.0026469     .047415
vdem_rescal~q |   .0011139   .0023697     0.47   0.638    -.0035307    .0057585
     rcd_loot |   .0675946   .0945953     0.71   0.475    -.1178088    .2529979
    rcd_crime |   .4420234   .1037152     4.26   0.000     .2387455    .6453014
 active_dyads |  -.0272067   .0499687    -0.54   0.586    -.1251435    .0707302
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000498   .0000126     3.94   0.000      .000025    .0000745
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2358808    .177551    -1.33   0.184    -.5838743    .1121128
        1992  |   .0876493   .1771124     0.49   0.621    -.2594845    .4347832
        1993  |  -.0151972   .1793209    -0.08   0.932    -.3666597    .3362652
        1994  |  -.0959839    .184214    -0.52   0.602    -.4570367     .265069
        1995  |  -.2740983    .186653    -1.47   0.142    -.6399314    .0917348
        1996  |  -.0779746   .1958039    -0.40   0.690    -.4617433     .305794
        1997  |  -.1627418   .1947034    -0.84   0.403    -.5443535      .21887
        1998  |  -.1341549    .188043    -0.71   0.476    -.5027124    .2344026
        1999  |  -.1349459   .1882428    -0.72   0.473     -.503895    .2340032
        2000  |  -.1616669   .1884498    -0.86   0.391    -.5310218    .2076879
        2001  |  -.3911636   .1901496    -2.06   0.040      -.76385   -.0184772
        2002  |   -.083535   .1846502    -0.45   0.651    -.4454427    .2783727
        2003  |  -.3888669   .1977306    -1.97   0.049    -.7764118    -.001322
        2004  |  -.2340926   .1962107    -1.19   0.233    -.6186585    .1504734
        2005  |  -.2740964   .2095489    -1.31   0.191    -.6848047    .1366118
        2006  |  -.2633579   .1970199    -1.34   0.181    -.6495099    .1227941
        2007  |  -.1798059   .2000189    -0.90   0.369    -.5718357    .2122238
        2008  |   -.201518   .1964411    -1.03   0.305    -.5865355    .1834995
        2009  |  -.1764395   .1936202    -0.91   0.362    -.5559281    .2030491
        2010  |  -.3686802   .2045094    -1.80   0.071    -.7695113    .0321509
        2014  |  -.9116992   1.037848    -0.88   0.380    -2.945843    1.122445
              |
        _cons |   .5090798   .3806778     1.34   0.181    -.2370349    1.255195
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0967864   .1282413                     -.3481348     .154562
        /ln_s |   4.574914   .2197739                      4.144165    5.005663
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9077499   .1164111                      .7060037    1.167147
            s |   97.01969    21.3224                      63.06493     149.256
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 410.66               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_support incomp_te
> rr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l
> 1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 46 groups (46 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -120648.98  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6384.7458  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5741.9267  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4475.0588  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4158.9442  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4053.0554  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -3823.7464  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood =  -3670.961  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -3561.8165  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -3544.2674  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -3544.0644  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -3544.0642  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        644
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        106

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.1
                                                              max =         21

                                                Wald chi2(33)     =      79.91
Log likelihood  = -3544.0642                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.2000658   .1739576    -1.15   0.250    -.5410165    .1408849
 Theological  |  -.0458469   .1996567    -0.23   0.818    -.4371668    .3454731
        Both  |    -.26147   .1801285    -1.45   0.147    -.6145155    .0915754
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .2398062   .1459558     1.64   0.100    -.0462619    .5258743
rebel_ext_s~t |   .0286594    .097145     0.30   0.768    -.1617413    .2190601
  incomp_terr |  -.2259243   .1458796    -1.55   0.121     -.511843    .0599944
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0163293   .0167626     0.97   0.330    -.0165247    .0491834
 vdem_rescale |   .0441219   .0139795     3.16   0.002     .0167225    .0715213
vdem_rescal~q |   .0031242   .0025757     1.21   0.225    -.0019241    .0081724
     rcd_loot |  -.0292698   .1053462    -0.28   0.781    -.2357446     .177205
    rcd_crime |   .5309843   .1152182     4.61   0.000     .3051608    .7568079
 active_dyads |   .0179852   .0560514     0.32   0.748    -.0918736     .127844
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000363   .0000143     2.54   0.011     8.30e-06    .0000644
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2480266   .1792735    -1.38   0.167    -.5993962     .103343
        1992  |   .0531352   .1876885     0.28   0.777    -.3147274    .4209978
        1993  |  -.1265347   .1953661    -0.65   0.517    -.5094452    .2563759
        1994  |  -.2010974   .2007711    -1.00   0.317    -.5946016    .1924068
        1995  |  -.3628049   .1993525    -1.82   0.069    -.7535286    .0279188
        1996  |  -.1514632   .2069986    -0.73   0.464    -.5571731    .2542467
        1997  |  -.3124345   .2077321    -1.50   0.133     -.719582     .094713
        1998  |  -.2903351   .2030679    -1.43   0.153    -.6883409    .1076708
        1999  |   -.295342   .2035883    -1.45   0.147    -.6943676    .1036837
        2000  |   -.293122   .1994203    -1.47   0.142    -.6839786    .0977346
        2001  |  -.5106186   .2001546    -2.55   0.011    -.9029144   -.1183229
        2002  |  -.2037422    .193106    -1.06   0.291    -.5822231    .1747387
        2003  |  -.5281071   .2072682    -2.55   0.011    -.9343453    -.121869
        2004  |  -.3659114    .204435    -1.79   0.073    -.7665967    .0347739
        2005  |  -.4240533   .2192253    -1.93   0.053     -.853727    .0056204
        2006  |   -.405959   .2082435    -1.95   0.051    -.8141088    .0021908
        2007  |  -.3509107   .2131837    -1.65   0.100    -.7687431    .0669217
        2008  |  -.3861362   .2153249    -1.79   0.073    -.8081652    .0358928
        2009  |  -.3157302   .2113887    -1.49   0.135    -.7300444     .098584
        2010  |  -.5313537   .2229677    -2.38   0.017    -.9683623    -.094345
              |
        _cons |   .0233117   .4800558     0.05   0.961    -.9175805    .9642038
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *****************
. * Table A6-A. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Any Ideological Claim - Mon
> adic, NAGs data *
. ******************************************************************************
> *****************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_support incomp_te
> rr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_u
> cdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.4019  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -979.70669  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -972.80867  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -972.74421  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -972.74421  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -972.74421
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -919.43113
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood =  -884.0627
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -858.23866
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -838.36087
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -823.24395
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -812.18825
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -804.48297
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -802.55549

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -803.91791  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -761.25987  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.96431  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.95224  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.95223  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(67)     =     259.45
Log pseudolikelihood  = -757.95223              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .7374719   .6459273     1.14   0.254    -.5285225    2.003466
claim_ideol~y |   .5516668   .3843918     1.44   0.151    -.2017273    1.305061
rebel_ext_s~t |    .504443   .3199097     1.58   0.115    -.1225684    1.131454
  incomp_terr |   -.281694   .4476368    -0.63   0.529    -1.159046     .595658
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0743486   .0341749    -2.18   0.030    -.1413302    -.007367
 vdem_rescale |  -.0247674    .057812    -0.43   0.668    -.1380769    .0885421
vdem_rescal~q |   .0032633   .0081374     0.40   0.688    -.0126857    .0192122
 active_dyads |   .0958777   .1596215     0.60   0.548    -.2169747    .4087301
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9715847   1.303929    -0.75   0.456    -3.527238    1.584069
        1952  |  -1.420338   1.434398    -0.99   0.322    -4.231708    1.391031
        1953  |   .0455841   1.417304     0.03   0.974    -2.732281    2.823449
        1954  |  -3.269567   1.618365    -2.02   0.043    -6.441505   -.0976289
        1955  |   -1.51126    2.13386    -0.71   0.479    -5.693549    2.671029
        1956  |  -2.477043   2.329289    -1.06   0.288    -7.042366     2.08828
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.726681   1.856106    -0.93   0.352    -5.364582     1.91122
        1959  |  -2.620057   2.079981    -1.26   0.208    -6.696745    1.456631
        1960  |  -3.723589   1.526957    -2.44   0.015     -6.71637   -.7308072
        1961  |  -1.074937    1.52145    -0.71   0.480    -4.056924    1.907051
        1962  |  -.5145566   1.529543    -0.34   0.737    -3.512405    2.483292
        1963  |  -.5978376   1.501595    -0.40   0.691    -3.540909    2.345234
        1964  |  -1.287066   1.380721    -0.93   0.351    -3.993228    1.419097
        1965  |  -1.576845   1.404464    -1.12   0.262    -4.329543    1.175853
        1966  |  -1.481232   1.360024    -1.09   0.276    -4.146829    1.184366
        1967  |  -1.569449   1.356685    -1.16   0.247    -4.228503    1.089605
        1968  |  -1.844755   1.249977    -1.48   0.140    -4.294665    .6051561
        1969  |  -1.582786   1.293954    -1.22   0.221    -4.118889    .9533174
        1970  |  -1.511244     1.3521    -1.12   0.264    -4.161311    1.138823
        1971  |  -.5910866   1.168244    -0.51   0.613    -2.880803     1.69863
        1972  |  -2.186425   1.433596    -1.53   0.127    -4.996221    .6233713
        1973  |  -2.828183   1.577161    -1.79   0.073    -5.919363     .262996
        1974  |  -1.240189   1.406338    -0.88   0.378    -3.996562    1.516183
        1975  |  -1.111846   1.338687    -0.83   0.406    -3.735625    1.511933
        1976  |  -.9355981   1.290722    -0.72   0.469    -3.465367    1.594171
        1977  |  -1.423618    1.30086    -1.09   0.274    -3.973256     1.12602
        1978  |  -.2164497   1.334422    -0.16   0.871    -2.831869    2.398969
        1979  |  -1.543663   1.297352    -1.19   0.234    -4.086427    .9991004
        1980  |  -1.322149   1.287217    -1.03   0.304    -3.845048     1.20075
        1981  |  -1.442931   1.323912    -1.09   0.276    -4.037751    1.151889
        1982  |  -1.074023   1.266202    -0.85   0.396    -3.555733    1.407688
        1983  |  -1.016755   1.288912    -0.79   0.430    -3.542977    1.509467
        1984  |  -.9155923   1.261145    -0.73   0.468    -3.387391    1.556207
        1985  |  -1.186447    1.27754    -0.93   0.353    -3.690379    1.317484
        1986  |  -1.692512   1.309018    -1.29   0.196    -4.258139    .8731151
        1987  |  -1.358092   1.299632    -1.04   0.296    -3.905323    1.189139
        1988  |  -.6517581   1.276553    -0.51   0.610    -3.153756     1.85024
        1989  |  -2.306333   1.302265    -1.77   0.077    -4.858726    .2460597
        1990  |  -1.976531   1.328965    -1.49   0.137    -4.581253    .6281922
        1991  |   -2.22264   1.339427    -1.66   0.097    -4.847869    .4025883
        1992  |  -1.353872   1.325602    -1.02   0.307    -3.952004     1.24426
        1993  |  -2.030182   1.329589    -1.53   0.127    -4.636129    .5757654
        1994  |  -2.099735   1.392137    -1.51   0.131    -4.828273    .6288038
        1995  |  -2.093839   1.403733    -1.49   0.136    -4.845105    .6574263
        1996  |  -2.181759   1.349485    -1.62   0.106    -4.826702    .4631837
        1997  |  -2.116195   1.334642    -1.59   0.113    -4.732046    .4996564
        1998  |  -1.308572   1.330824    -0.98   0.325    -3.916938    1.299794
        1999  |  -1.329931   1.347245    -0.99   0.324    -3.970482     1.31062
        2000  |  -2.006581   1.352942    -1.48   0.138    -4.658298    .6451367
        2001  |  -2.457342   1.326812    -1.85   0.064    -5.057844    .1431613
        2002  |  -1.814235   1.494727    -1.21   0.225    -4.743846    1.115376
        2003  |  -2.780741   1.631181    -1.70   0.088    -5.977797     .416316
        2004  |  -1.640761   1.492297    -1.10   0.272     -4.56561    1.284087
        2005  |  -2.405575   1.606963    -1.50   0.134    -5.555165    .7440154
        2006  |  -3.544128   1.420957    -2.49   0.013    -6.329154   -.7591026
        2007  |  -3.117713   1.470885    -2.12   0.034    -6.000594   -.2348319
        2008  |  -3.071768   1.385815    -2.22   0.027    -5.787915   -.3556215
        2009  |  -2.571895   1.363143    -1.89   0.059    -5.243606    .0998157
        2010  |  -3.228793   1.402123    -2.30   0.021    -5.976903   -.4806819
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |  -1.365704   1.432467    -0.95   0.340    -4.173289     1.44188
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.953354     .21096                       1.53988    2.366828
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.655617   .2801145                      2.159637    3.265504
          rho |   .6818977     .04576                       .586383    .7642243
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_support incomp_te
> rr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i.year
>  if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2010.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.4019  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -979.70669  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -972.80867  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -972.74421  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -972.74421  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -972.74421
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -919.43113
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood =  -884.0627
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -858.23866
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -838.36087
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -823.24395
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -812.18825
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -804.48297
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -802.55549

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -803.91791  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -761.25987  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.96431  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.95224  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.95223  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(67)     =     259.45
Log pseudolikelihood  = -757.95223              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .7374719   .6459273     1.14   0.254    -.5285225    2.003466
claim_ideol~y |   .5516668   .3843918     1.44   0.151    -.2017273    1.305061
rebel_ext_s~t |    .504443   .3199097     1.58   0.115    -.1225684    1.131454
  incomp_terr |   -.281694   .4476368    -0.63   0.529    -1.159046     .595658
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0743486   .0341749    -2.18   0.030    -.1413302    -.007367
 vdem_rescale |  -.0247674    .057812    -0.43   0.668    -.1380769    .0885421
vdem_rescal~q |   .0032633   .0081374     0.40   0.688    -.0126857    .0192122
 active_dyads |   .0958777   .1596215     0.60   0.548    -.2169747    .4087301
post_cold_war |  -3.228793   1.402123    -2.30   0.021    -5.976903   -.4806819
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9715847   1.303929    -0.75   0.456    -3.527238    1.584069
        1952  |  -1.420338   1.434398    -0.99   0.322    -4.231708    1.391031
        1953  |   .0455841   1.417304     0.03   0.974    -2.732281    2.823449
        1954  |  -3.269567   1.618365    -2.02   0.043    -6.441505   -.0976289
        1955  |   -1.51126    2.13386    -0.71   0.479    -5.693549    2.671029
        1956  |  -2.477043   2.329289    -1.06   0.288    -7.042366     2.08828
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.726681   1.856106    -0.93   0.352    -5.364582     1.91122
        1959  |  -2.620057   2.079981    -1.26   0.208    -6.696745    1.456631
        1960  |  -3.723589   1.526957    -2.44   0.015     -6.71637   -.7308072
        1961  |  -1.074937    1.52145    -0.71   0.480    -4.056924    1.907051
        1962  |  -.5145566   1.529543    -0.34   0.737    -3.512405    2.483292
        1963  |  -.5978376   1.501595    -0.40   0.691    -3.540909    2.345234
        1964  |  -1.287066   1.380721    -0.93   0.351    -3.993228    1.419097
        1965  |  -1.576845   1.404464    -1.12   0.262    -4.329543    1.175853
        1966  |  -1.481232   1.360024    -1.09   0.276    -4.146829    1.184366
        1967  |  -1.569449   1.356685    -1.16   0.247    -4.228503    1.089605
        1968  |  -1.844755   1.249977    -1.48   0.140    -4.294665    .6051561
        1969  |  -1.582786   1.293954    -1.22   0.221    -4.118889    .9533174
        1970  |  -1.511244     1.3521    -1.12   0.264    -4.161311    1.138823
        1971  |  -.5910866   1.168244    -0.51   0.613    -2.880803     1.69863
        1972  |  -2.186425   1.433596    -1.53   0.127    -4.996221    .6233713
        1973  |  -2.828183   1.577161    -1.79   0.073    -5.919363     .262996
        1974  |  -1.240189   1.406338    -0.88   0.378    -3.996562    1.516183
        1975  |  -1.111846   1.338687    -0.83   0.406    -3.735625    1.511933
        1976  |  -.9355981   1.290722    -0.72   0.469    -3.465367    1.594171
        1977  |  -1.423618    1.30086    -1.09   0.274    -3.973256     1.12602
        1978  |  -.2164497   1.334422    -0.16   0.871    -2.831869    2.398969
        1979  |  -1.543663   1.297352    -1.19   0.234    -4.086427    .9991004
        1980  |  -1.322149   1.287217    -1.03   0.304    -3.845048     1.20075
        1981  |  -1.442931   1.323912    -1.09   0.276    -4.037751    1.151889
        1982  |  -1.074023   1.266202    -0.85   0.396    -3.555733    1.407688
        1983  |  -1.016755   1.288912    -0.79   0.430    -3.542977    1.509467
        1984  |  -.9155923   1.261145    -0.73   0.468    -3.387391    1.556207
        1985  |  -1.186447    1.27754    -0.93   0.353    -3.690379    1.317484
        1986  |  -1.692512   1.309018    -1.29   0.196    -4.258139    .8731151
        1987  |  -1.358092   1.299632    -1.04   0.296    -3.905323    1.189139
        1988  |  -.6517581   1.276553    -0.51   0.610    -3.153756     1.85024
        1989  |  -2.306333   1.302265    -1.77   0.077    -4.858726    .2460597
        1990  |  -1.976531   1.328965    -1.49   0.137    -4.581253    .6281922
        1991  |   1.006152   .8511331     1.18   0.237    -.6620379    2.674343
        1992  |   1.874921   .7899513     2.37   0.018     .3266446    3.423197
        1993  |   1.198611   .8095429     1.48   0.139    -.3880644    2.785286
        1994  |   1.129058   .8843648     1.28   0.202    -.6042652    2.862381
        1995  |   1.134953   .8848988     1.28   0.200    -.5994165    2.869323
        1996  |   1.047033   .8702286     1.20   0.229    -.6585832     2.75265
        1997  |   1.112598   .8214514     1.35   0.176    -.4974173    2.722613
        1998  |   1.920221   .7941976     2.42   0.016      .363622    3.476819
        1999  |   1.898861   .7920151     2.40   0.017     .3465402    3.451182
        2000  |   1.222212      .8215     1.49   0.137    -.3878985    2.832322
        2001  |    .771451    .806876     0.96   0.339     -.809997    2.352899
        2002  |   1.414558   .9048143     1.56   0.118    -.3588459    3.187961
        2003  |   .4480519   1.267726     0.35   0.724    -2.036645    2.932749
        2004  |   1.588031   1.078282     1.47   0.141    -.5253622    3.701424
        2005  |   .8232178   1.035191     0.80   0.426     -1.20572    2.852155
        2006  |  -.3153356   .5657551    -0.56   0.577    -1.424195     .793524
        2007  |   .1110794   .7707822     0.14   0.885    -1.399626    1.621785
        2008  |   .1570245   .3303433     0.48   0.635    -.4904365    .8044854
        2009  |   .6568975   .4837902     1.36   0.175    -.2913139    1.605109
        2010  |          0  (omitted)
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |  -1.365704   1.432467    -0.95   0.340    -4.173289     1.44188
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.953354     .21096                       1.53988    2.366828
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.655617   .2801145                      2.159637    3.265504
          rho |   .6818977     .04576                       .586383    .7642243
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(c.rel_aff01 c.claim_ideology) rebel_
> ext_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads
>  i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2010.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.4019  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -976.35487  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -968.37745  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -968.2791  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -968.27903  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -968.27903
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -916.69577
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -882.21645
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -856.90879
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -837.40947
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -822.30492
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -810.91657
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -803.47737
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -801.41593

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -803.26282  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -760.45845  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.05653  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.04432  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.04432  (backed up)
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -757.0443  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(69)     =     287.66
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -757.0443              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -2.972159   1.628116    -1.83   0.068    -6.163208    .2188894
    rel_aff01 |   .6669208   .6395721     1.04   0.297    -.5866174    1.920459
claim_ideol~y |   .8541455   .4968499     1.72   0.086    -.1196625    1.827953
              |
post_cold_war#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |   .1411357   .8593378     0.16   0.870    -1.543135    1.825407
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.7010891   .6970072    -1.01   0.314    -2.067198    .6650199
              |
rebel_ext_s~t |   .5011218   .3197705     1.57   0.117    -.1256169     1.12786
  incomp_terr |  -.2704782    .447587    -0.60   0.546    -1.147733    .6067763
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0731015   .0341239    -2.14   0.032    -.1399831     -.00622
 vdem_rescale |   -.026638   .0563505    -0.47   0.636    -.1370829     .083807
vdem_rescal~q |    .003066   .0081018     0.38   0.705    -.0128132    .0189453
 active_dyads |   .0886168   .1587626     0.56   0.577    -.2225522    .3997857
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9555525   1.297501    -0.74   0.461    -3.498608    1.587503
        1952  |  -1.393591   1.433568    -0.97   0.331    -4.203333    1.416151
        1953  |   .0293283   1.397394     0.02   0.983    -2.709513     2.76817
        1954  |  -3.364273   1.624525    -2.07   0.038    -6.548284   -.1802623
        1955  |  -1.569868    2.19679    -0.71   0.475    -5.875497    2.735761
        1956  |   -2.55311   2.356646    -1.08   0.279    -7.172051    2.065831
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.800275   1.870149    -0.96   0.336    -5.465699    1.865149
        1959  |  -2.683731    2.10064    -1.28   0.201     -6.80091    1.433448
        1960  |  -3.811916    1.51454    -2.52   0.012     -6.78036   -.8434729
        1961  |  -1.172641   1.522567    -0.77   0.441    -4.156817    1.811535
        1962  |  -.6280482   1.528089    -0.41   0.681    -3.623049    2.366952
        1963  |  -.7109599   1.492082    -0.48   0.634    -3.635388    2.213468
        1964  |  -1.407441   1.368784    -1.03   0.304    -4.090208    1.275325
        1965  |  -1.706737    1.39058    -1.23   0.220    -4.432223    1.018749
        1966  |  -1.601675   1.344504    -1.19   0.234    -4.236854    1.033504
        1967  |  -1.692214   1.336599    -1.27   0.205      -4.3119    .9274717
        1968  |  -1.966512   1.237086    -1.59   0.112    -4.391156    .4581327
        1969  |  -1.705681   1.277036    -1.34   0.182    -4.208626    .7972635
        1970  |  -1.635214   1.326801    -1.23   0.218    -4.235696    .9652678
        1971  |  -.7050717   1.144893    -0.62   0.538    -2.949021    1.538878
        1972  |  -2.310428   1.393143    -1.66   0.097    -5.040939    .4200824
        1973  |   -2.96294   1.543889    -1.92   0.055    -5.988906    .0630266
        1974  |  -1.363563   1.368996    -1.00   0.319    -4.046746     1.31962
        1975  |  -1.241154   1.304059    -0.95   0.341    -3.797063    1.314755
        1976  |  -1.056989   1.263905    -0.84   0.403    -3.534198     1.42022
        1977  |  -1.548142   1.273445    -1.22   0.224    -4.044049    .9477649
        1978  |  -.3394579   1.308303    -0.26   0.795    -2.903684    2.224769
        1979  |   -1.68457   1.276099    -1.32   0.187    -4.185677     .816538
        1980  |  -1.462774   1.269287    -1.15   0.249     -3.95053    1.024983
        1981  |  -1.588598   1.304872    -1.22   0.223      -4.1461    .9689036
        1982  |  -1.219183   1.245408    -0.98   0.328    -3.660138    1.221772
        1983  |  -1.157993      1.269    -0.91   0.361    -3.645187    1.329202
        1984  |  -1.058347   1.241868    -0.85   0.394    -3.492363    1.375668
        1985  |  -1.336974   1.252888    -1.07   0.286    -3.792589    1.118641
        1986  |  -1.834972   1.297724    -1.41   0.157    -4.378463    .7085193
        1987  |  -1.498682   1.282907    -1.17   0.243    -4.013133    1.015769
        1988  |  -.7945373   1.254555    -0.63   0.527     -3.25342    1.664346
        1989  |  -2.461172   1.278691    -1.92   0.054    -4.967359    .0450156
        1990  |  -2.077515   1.312197    -1.58   0.113    -4.649375    .4943447
        1991  |   .9915188   .8390671     1.18   0.237    -.6530225     2.63606
        1992  |   1.816299   .7998315     2.27   0.023     .2486584     3.38394
        1993  |   1.158173   .8174445     1.42   0.157    -.4439889    2.760335
        1994  |   1.082955   .9016775     1.20   0.230    -.6843007     2.85021
        1995  |     1.1065   .8821871     1.25   0.210    -.6225554    2.835555
        1996  |   1.033545   .8682254     1.19   0.234    -.6681456    2.735236
        1997  |   1.103246   .8271992     1.33   0.182    -.5180344    2.724527
        1998  |   1.907065   .7938251     2.40   0.016      .351196    3.462933
        1999  |   1.905795   .7914269     2.41   0.016     .3546267    3.456963
        2000  |   1.216483   .8233494     1.48   0.140    -.3972521    2.830218
        2001  |   .7688246   .8068453     0.95   0.341    -.8125632    2.350212
        2002  |   1.414487    .898816     1.57   0.116    -.3471603    3.176134
        2003  |   .4387427   1.267577     0.35   0.729    -2.045662    2.923148
        2004  |   1.585419   1.072084     1.48   0.139    -.5158265    3.686665
        2005  |   .8161954   1.041513     0.78   0.433    -1.225132    2.857522
        2006  |  -.3316887   .5510534    -0.60   0.547    -1.411734    .7483561
        2007  |   .1083098    .767736     0.14   0.888    -1.396425    1.613045
        2008  |   .1440781   .3186705     0.45   0.651    -.4805046    .7686608
        2009  |   .6402963   .4812678     1.33   0.183    -.3029714    1.583564
        2010  |          0  (omitted)
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |  -1.405573   1.432805    -0.98   0.327     -4.21382    1.402674
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.957185   .2145858                      1.536605    2.377765
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.660709   .2854752                      2.156103    3.283411
          rho |   .6827281   .0464815                      .5855883    .7661894
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_support incomp_terr side_a_
> lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best 
> i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6846355.7  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4801168.7  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3804913.4  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1842912.4  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1210337.6  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -471295.67  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -361642.31  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -360300.24  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -360295.76  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -360295.76  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -252965.9  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5493.7769  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5485.8641  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5131.4093  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5128.7378  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5079.4859  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5035.0403  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5031.2626  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5031.2548  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5031.2548  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -76900.132  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10938.591  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -8638.5965  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6165.3773  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5437.7224  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5192.4366  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4858.2094  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4813.3143  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4810.5381  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4810.5274  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4810.5274  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        690
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        152

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.5
                                                              max =         21

                                                Wald chi2(32)     =      65.28
Log likelihood  = -4810.5274                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0005

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .1988527   .2000274     0.99   0.320    -.1931939    .5908992
claim_ideol~y |  -.2416664   .1163163    -2.08   0.038    -.4696422   -.0136906
rebel_ext_s~t |   .0538609   .0860767     0.63   0.531    -.1148462    .2225681
  incomp_terr |  -.2183489   .1242582    -1.76   0.079    -.4618905    .0251927
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0051875   .0129786    -0.40   0.689     -.030625      .02025
 vdem_rescale |   .0162356   .0119428     1.36   0.174    -.0071719     .039643
vdem_rescal~q |   .0008799   .0023134     0.38   0.704    -.0036542     .005414
     rcd_loot |   .0499063   .0944713     0.53   0.597    -.1352541    .2350667
    rcd_crime |   .4351103   .1023049     4.25   0.000     .2345965    .6356242
 active_dyads |  -.0020824   .0478811    -0.04   0.965    -.0959276    .0917628
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |     .00006   .0000135     4.45   0.000     .0000336    .0000865
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2040228   .1758369    -1.16   0.246    -.5486568    .1406113
        1992  |   .1374185   .1765492     0.78   0.436    -.2086115    .4834486
        1993  |   .0011847   .1795663     0.01   0.995    -.3507588    .3531282
        1994  |  -.0091041   .1807485    -0.05   0.960    -.3633648    .3451565
        1995  |  -.2224547   .1860169    -1.20   0.232    -.5870411    .1421317
        1996  |   .0160017   .1921316     0.08   0.934    -.3605694    .3925727
        1997  |  -.0986657   .1945473    -0.51   0.612    -.4799715    .2826401
        1998  |  -.0867601   .1874702    -0.46   0.644    -.4541949    .2806746
        1999  |  -.0785637   .1867327    -0.42   0.674    -.4445532    .2874257
        2000  |  -.0729845   .1858461    -0.39   0.695    -.4372361    .2912671
        2001  |  -.2915841   .1869763    -1.56   0.119     -.658051    .0748828
        2002  |   .0037321   .1817633     0.02   0.984    -.3525174    .3599817
        2003  |  -.3053649    .195332    -1.56   0.118    -.6882086    .0774788
        2004  |  -.1375856   .1933274    -0.71   0.477    -.5165005    .2413292
        2005  |  -.1718689    .205605    -0.84   0.403    -.5748473    .2311095
        2006  |  -.2009065    .196849    -1.02   0.307    -.5867235    .1849104
        2007  |  -.0875153   .1986236    -0.44   0.659    -.4768104    .3017799
        2008  |  -.1099119   .1939817    -0.57   0.571     -.490109    .2702851
        2009  |  -.0883055   .1923145    -0.46   0.646    -.4652349    .2886239
        2010  |  -.2622263   .2003766    -1.31   0.191    -.6549572    .1305046
        2014  |  -.9710492   1.044035    -0.93   0.352    -3.017321    1.075223
              |
        _cons |   .3104111   .4137394     0.75   0.453    -.5005032    1.121325
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |   -.128967   .1272255                     -.3783243    .1203904
        /ln_s |   4.502408   .2210133                       4.06923    4.935586
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |    .879003   .1118316                      .6850083    1.127937
            s |   90.23415   19.94295                      58.51188    139.1547
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 441.45               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_support incomp_terr side_a_
> lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best 
> i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 46 groups (46 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -172041.35  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7353.5703  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5682.7733  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4681.3289  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4196.2495  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -3972.8751  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -3848.1588  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -3631.2936  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -3544.8649  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -3541.1498  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -3541.1427  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -3541.1427  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        644
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        106

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.1
                                                              max =         21

                                                Wald chi2(31)     =      86.93
Log likelihood  = -3541.1427                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .2593219   .2552775     1.02   0.310    -.2410128    .7596565
claim_ideol~y |   -.507986   .1459168    -3.48   0.000    -.7939777   -.2219943
rebel_ext_s~t |   -.018624   .0939372    -0.20   0.843    -.2027375    .1654894
  incomp_terr |    -.29667   .1458611    -2.03   0.042    -.5825525   -.0107875
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0243452     .01676     1.45   0.146    -.0085038    .0571943
 vdem_rescale |   .0398644   .0133247     2.99   0.003     .0137484    .0659804
vdem_rescal~q |   .0030058   .0025019     1.20   0.230    -.0018978    .0079095
     rcd_loot |  -.0672652   .1017025    -0.66   0.508    -.2665986    .1320681
    rcd_crime |    .536453   .1129085     4.75   0.000     .3151563    .7577497
 active_dyads |   .0338162   .0530369     0.64   0.524    -.0701342    .1377667
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000518   .0000157     3.30   0.001     .0000211    .0000826
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2534729   .1751667    -1.45   0.148    -.5967934    .0898475
        1992  |   .0350686   .1858193     0.19   0.850    -.3291306    .3992678
        1993  |  -.2040153    .196771    -1.04   0.300    -.5896794    .1816487
        1994  |  -.1789448   .1953691    -0.92   0.360    -.5618612    .2039715
        1995  |  -.4035533   .1996277    -2.02   0.043    -.7948163   -.0122902
        1996  |   -.168054   .2043165    -0.82   0.411     -.568507     .232399
        1997  |  -.3102527   .2046382    -1.52   0.129    -.7113361    .0908308
        1998  |  -.3033972   .1997533    -1.52   0.129    -.6949065    .0881122
        1999  |  -.3130935   .2003555    -1.56   0.118     -.705783     .079596
        2000  |  -.2721905   .1942105    -1.40   0.161    -.6528361     .108455
        2001  |  -.4787776   .1942029    -2.47   0.014    -.8594082    -.098147
        2002  |  -.1719094    .187827    -0.92   0.360    -.5400436    .1962248
        2003  |  -.4942677   .2023932    -2.44   0.015    -.8909512   -.0975843
        2004  |  -.3171121   .1987304    -1.60   0.111    -.7066166    .0723924
        2005  |  -.3838002   .2121567    -1.81   0.070    -.7996198    .0320194
        2006  |  -.4033646   .2052071    -1.97   0.049    -.8055631   -.0011662
        2007  |  -.3177037    .208736    -1.52   0.128    -.7268188    .0914113
        2008  |  -.3598686   .2097592    -1.72   0.086    -.7709891    .0512518
        2009  |  -.3096054   .2067486    -1.50   0.134    -.7148252    .0956144
        2010  |  -.5206814   .2185721    -2.38   0.017    -.9490748   -.0922881
              |
        _cons |  -.0581036   .5166834    -0.11   0.910    -1.070785    .9545773
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ***********************
. * Table A7-A. Determinants of Conflict Intensity – Types of Ideological Claims
>  – Monadic, NAGs Data *
. ******************************************************************************
> ***********************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_support inco
> mp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsol
> ete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.4019  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -979.58174  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -972.55449  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -972.48928  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -972.48928  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -972.48928
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -919.13133
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -883.82803
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -858.12785
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -838.37063
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -823.32579
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -812.33181
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -804.67519
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -802.76866

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -804.21281  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -761.64152  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.97442  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.96372  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.96181  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.96181  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.96062  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.96062  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(68)     =     269.05
Log pseudolikelihood  = -757.96062              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .7148352   .6551394     1.09   0.275    -.5692144    1.998885
Theologica..  |   1.427913   .7668081     1.86   0.063    -.0750029     2.93083
              |
  claim_other |    .368194   .4307701     0.85   0.393    -.4760998    1.212488
rebel_ext_s~t |   .5088642    .321343     1.58   0.113    -.1209565    1.138685
  incomp_terr |   -.326537   .4557047    -0.72   0.474    -1.219702    .5666279
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0727416   .0340682    -2.14   0.033     -.139514   -.0059692
 vdem_rescale |  -.0250765   .0579673    -0.43   0.665    -.1386904    .0885374
vdem_rescal~q |    .003199   .0081811     0.39   0.696    -.0128355    .0192336
 active_dyads |     .08125   .1623779     0.50   0.617    -.2370049    .3995048
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9953205   1.305577    -0.76   0.446    -3.554205    1.563564
        1952  |  -1.450496   1.430958    -1.01   0.311    -4.255123     1.35413
        1953  |   .0248058   1.416345     0.02   0.986    -2.751179    2.800791
        1954  |  -3.225844   1.609013    -2.00   0.045    -6.379451   -.0722373
        1955  |  -1.491833   2.102619    -0.71   0.478    -5.612891    2.629224
        1956  |  -2.447331   2.316788    -1.06   0.291    -6.988152    2.093489
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.703271   1.847938    -0.92   0.357    -5.325163    1.918621
        1959  |  -2.600291   2.071434    -1.26   0.209    -6.660227    1.459644
        1960  |  -3.699805   1.531068    -2.42   0.016    -6.700644   -.6989666
        1961  |   -1.05902    1.52122    -0.70   0.486    -4.040556    1.922517
        1962  |  -.4870832   1.530501    -0.32   0.750     -3.48681    2.512643
        1963  |  -.5650952   1.505923    -0.38   0.707    -3.516651     2.38646
        1964  |  -1.262437   1.386178    -0.91   0.362    -3.979296    1.454421
        1965  |  -1.546265   1.411028    -1.10   0.273    -4.311828    1.219299
        1966  |  -1.455492   1.366055    -1.07   0.287    -4.132911    1.221928
        1967  |  -1.547211   1.363053    -1.14   0.256    -4.218745    1.124322
        1968  |  -1.825386   1.260619    -1.45   0.148    -4.296154    .6453823
        1969  |  -1.558759   1.303966    -1.20   0.232    -4.114487    .9969677
        1970  |  -1.484836    1.36357    -1.09   0.276    -4.157385    1.187713
        1971  |  -.5751769   1.176357    -0.49   0.625    -2.880794     1.73044
        1972  |  -2.170208   1.444938    -1.50   0.133    -5.002235    .6618182
        1973  |  -2.804103   1.587471    -1.77   0.077    -5.915488    .3072826
        1974  |  -1.229426    1.41382    -0.87   0.385    -4.000462     1.54161
        1975  |  -1.096632   1.346841    -0.81   0.416    -3.736391    1.543127
        1976  |  -.9190368   1.299791    -0.71   0.480     -3.46658    1.628506
        1977  |   -1.40235   1.310653    -1.07   0.285    -3.971183    1.166483
        1978  |  -.1953834   1.342382    -0.15   0.884    -2.826403    2.435636
        1979  |   -1.52725   1.305614    -1.17   0.242    -4.086207    1.031706
        1980  |  -1.312603   1.294703    -1.01   0.311    -3.850174    1.224967
        1981  |  -1.430371   1.328876    -1.08   0.282    -4.034919    1.174178
        1982  |  -1.064441   1.274009    -0.84   0.403    -3.561453    1.432572
        1983  |  -1.006222   1.293838    -0.78   0.437    -3.542097    1.529654
        1984  |  -.9039208   1.266709    -0.71   0.475    -3.386624    1.578783
        1985  |  -1.176852   1.282724    -0.92   0.359    -3.690945    1.337242
        1986  |  -1.684501   1.316842    -1.28   0.201    -4.265464    .8964616
        1987  |  -1.352237    1.30538    -1.04   0.300    -3.910735     1.20626
        1988  |  -.6416439   1.284618    -0.50   0.617     -3.15945    1.876162
        1989  |  -2.308136   1.310747    -1.76   0.078    -4.877152    .2608805
        1990  |  -1.974136   1.337844    -1.48   0.140    -4.596262    .6479909
        1991  |   -2.22619   1.347639    -1.65   0.099    -4.867515    .4151346
        1992  |  -1.365111   1.335765    -1.02   0.307    -3.983162    1.252941
        1993  |  -2.047666   1.339931    -1.53   0.126    -4.673882    .5785501
        1994  |     -2.115    1.40146    -1.51   0.131    -4.861811     .631811
        1995  |  -2.107264   1.412533    -1.49   0.136    -4.875778    .6612496
        1996  |   -2.19171   1.359223    -1.61   0.107    -4.855737    .4723176
        1997  |  -2.130411    1.34289    -1.59   0.113    -4.762427    .5016038
        1998  |  -1.334229   1.339763    -1.00   0.319    -3.960117    1.291658
        1999  |  -1.359429    1.36071    -1.00   0.318    -4.026371    1.307513
        2000  |  -2.031652    1.36241    -1.49   0.136    -4.701927    .6386235
        2001  |  -2.479864    1.33584    -1.86   0.063    -5.098063    .1383346
        2002  |  -1.837514    1.50762    -1.22   0.223    -4.792395    1.117367
        2003  |  -2.810926   1.646389    -1.71   0.088    -6.037789    .4159379
        2004  |  -1.680104   1.508875    -1.11   0.266    -4.637446    1.277237
        2005  |  -2.433633   1.621125    -1.50   0.133    -5.610979    .7437137
        2006  |  -3.579552   1.427936    -2.51   0.012    -6.378255   -.7808496
        2007  |  -3.165109   1.479735    -2.14   0.032    -6.065337    -.264882
        2008  |  -3.121045   1.390186    -2.25   0.025    -5.845759   -.3963306
        2009  |  -2.617255   1.369722    -1.91   0.056     -5.30186    .0673504
        2010  |  -3.281638     1.3961    -2.35   0.019    -6.017944   -.5453328
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |  -1.294717   1.446436    -0.90   0.371    -4.129679    1.540245
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.950616   .2111611                      1.536747    2.364484
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.651983   .2799978                      2.156257    3.261678
          rho |   .6813034   .0458492                       .585623    .7638016
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_support inco
> mp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i
> .year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2010.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.4019  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -979.58174  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -972.55449  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -972.48928  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -972.48928  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -972.48928
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -919.13133
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -883.82803
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -858.12785
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -838.37063
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -823.32579
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -812.33181
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -804.67519
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -802.76866

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -804.21281  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -761.64152  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.97442  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.96372  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.96181  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.96181  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.96062  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -757.96062  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(68)     =     269.05
Log pseudolikelihood  = -757.96062              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .7148352   .6551394     1.09   0.275    -.5692144    1.998885
Theologica..  |   1.427913   .7668081     1.86   0.063    -.0750029     2.93083
              |
  claim_other |    .368194   .4307701     0.85   0.393    -.4760998    1.212488
rebel_ext_s~t |   .5088642    .321343     1.58   0.113    -.1209565    1.138685
  incomp_terr |   -.326537   .4557047    -0.72   0.474    -1.219702    .5666279
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0727416   .0340682    -2.14   0.033     -.139514   -.0059692
 vdem_rescale |  -.0250765   .0579673    -0.43   0.665    -.1386904    .0885374
vdem_rescal~q |    .003199   .0081811     0.39   0.696    -.0128355    .0192336
 active_dyads |     .08125   .1623779     0.50   0.617    -.2370049    .3995048
post_cold_war |  -3.281638     1.3961    -2.35   0.019    -6.017944   -.5453328
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9953205   1.305577    -0.76   0.446    -3.554205    1.563564
        1952  |  -1.450496   1.430958    -1.01   0.311    -4.255123     1.35413
        1953  |   .0248058   1.416345     0.02   0.986    -2.751179    2.800791
        1954  |  -3.225844   1.609013    -2.00   0.045    -6.379451   -.0722373
        1955  |  -1.491833   2.102619    -0.71   0.478    -5.612891    2.629224
        1956  |  -2.447331   2.316788    -1.06   0.291    -6.988152    2.093489
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.703271   1.847938    -0.92   0.357    -5.325163    1.918621
        1959  |  -2.600291   2.071434    -1.26   0.209    -6.660227    1.459644
        1960  |  -3.699805   1.531068    -2.42   0.016    -6.700644   -.6989666
        1961  |   -1.05902    1.52122    -0.70   0.486    -4.040556    1.922517
        1962  |  -.4870832   1.530501    -0.32   0.750     -3.48681    2.512643
        1963  |  -.5650952   1.505923    -0.38   0.707    -3.516651     2.38646
        1964  |  -1.262437   1.386178    -0.91   0.362    -3.979296    1.454421
        1965  |  -1.546265   1.411028    -1.10   0.273    -4.311828    1.219299
        1966  |  -1.455492   1.366055    -1.07   0.287    -4.132911    1.221928
        1967  |  -1.547211   1.363053    -1.14   0.256    -4.218745    1.124322
        1968  |  -1.825386   1.260619    -1.45   0.148    -4.296154    .6453823
        1969  |  -1.558759   1.303966    -1.20   0.232    -4.114487    .9969677
        1970  |  -1.484836    1.36357    -1.09   0.276    -4.157385    1.187713
        1971  |  -.5751769   1.176357    -0.49   0.625    -2.880794     1.73044
        1972  |  -2.170208   1.444938    -1.50   0.133    -5.002235    .6618182
        1973  |  -2.804103   1.587471    -1.77   0.077    -5.915488    .3072826
        1974  |  -1.229426    1.41382    -0.87   0.385    -4.000462     1.54161
        1975  |  -1.096632   1.346841    -0.81   0.416    -3.736391    1.543127
        1976  |  -.9190368   1.299791    -0.71   0.480     -3.46658    1.628506
        1977  |   -1.40235   1.310653    -1.07   0.285    -3.971183    1.166483
        1978  |  -.1953834   1.342382    -0.15   0.884    -2.826403    2.435636
        1979  |   -1.52725   1.305614    -1.17   0.242    -4.086207    1.031706
        1980  |  -1.312603   1.294703    -1.01   0.311    -3.850174    1.224967
        1981  |  -1.430371   1.328876    -1.08   0.282    -4.034919    1.174178
        1982  |  -1.064441   1.274009    -0.84   0.403    -3.561453    1.432572
        1983  |  -1.006222   1.293838    -0.78   0.437    -3.542097    1.529654
        1984  |  -.9039208   1.266709    -0.71   0.475    -3.386624    1.578783
        1985  |  -1.176852   1.282724    -0.92   0.359    -3.690945    1.337242
        1986  |  -1.684501   1.316842    -1.28   0.201    -4.265464    .8964616
        1987  |  -1.352237    1.30538    -1.04   0.300    -3.910735     1.20626
        1988  |  -.6416439   1.284618    -0.50   0.617     -3.15945    1.876162
        1989  |  -2.308136   1.310747    -1.76   0.078    -4.877152    .2608805
        1990  |  -1.974136   1.337844    -1.48   0.140    -4.596262    .6479909
        1991  |   1.055448   .8304515     1.27   0.204     -.572207    2.683103
        1992  |   1.916527   .7611403     2.52   0.012     .4247199    3.408335
        1993  |   1.233972   .7841324     1.57   0.116    -.3028989    2.770844
        1994  |   1.166638   .8568516     1.36   0.173      -.51276    2.846037
        1995  |   1.174374   .8651655     1.36   0.175    -.5213193    2.870067
        1996  |   1.089928    .849447     1.28   0.199    -.5749572    2.754814
        1997  |   1.151227   .8023351     1.43   0.151    -.4213212    2.723775
        1998  |   1.947409   .7785425     2.50   0.012     .4214936    3.473324
        1999  |   1.922209   .7743657     2.48   0.013     .4044805    3.439938
        2000  |   1.249987   .8047151     1.55   0.120     -.327226    2.827199
        2001  |   .8017741   .7941144     1.01   0.313    -.7546615     2.35821
        2002  |   1.444124   .8853893     1.63   0.103    -.2912069    3.179455
        2003  |   .4707124   1.257074     0.37   0.708    -1.993108    2.934533
        2004  |   1.601534   1.072737     1.49   0.135    -.5009926     3.70406
        2005  |   .8480053   1.027666     0.83   0.409    -1.166182    2.862193
        2006  |  -.2979139   .5627154    -0.53   0.597    -1.400816    .8049881
        2007  |    .116529   .7733437     0.15   0.880    -1.399197    1.632255
        2008  |   .1605932    .332892     0.48   0.630    -.4918632    .8130496
        2009  |   .6643833   .4825366     1.38   0.169     -.281371    1.610138
        2010  |          0  (omitted)
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |  -1.294717   1.446436    -0.90   0.371    -4.129679    1.540245
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.950616   .2111611                      1.536747    2.364484
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.651983   .2799978                      2.156257    3.261678
          rho |   .6813034   .0458492                       .585623    .7638016
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.rel_claim_types c.claim_other) reb
> el_ext_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dy
> ads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2010.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.4019  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -974.51637  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -966.17424  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -966.04582  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -966.04575  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -966.04575
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood =  -915.0242
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -880.93446
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -855.90235
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -836.59261
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -821.56134
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood =  -810.2294
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -802.78585
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -800.61665

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -802.76555  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -759.82325  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -756.00232  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.98802  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.98802  (backed up)
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.98799  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(71)     =     308.75
Log pseudolikelihood  = -755.98799              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.040187   1.617703    -1.88   0.060    -6.210826    .1304513
              |
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .5905291   .6463951     0.91   0.361     -.676382     1.85744
Theologica..  |   2.333144   .9787273     2.38   0.017     .4148741    4.251415
              |
  claim_other |    .630212   .5181604     1.22   0.224    -.3853637    1.645788
              |
post_cold_war#|
rel_claim_t~s |
           1 #|
Religious ..  |   .2221573   .8465441     0.26   0.793    -1.437039    1.881353
           1 #|
Theologica..  |  -1.293774    1.12757    -1.15   0.251     -3.50377     .916222
              |
post_cold_war#|
c.claim_other |
           1  |  -.6563352   .7777548    -0.84   0.399    -2.180707    .8680363
              |
rebel_ext_s~t |   .4922866   .3214065     1.53   0.126    -.1376587    1.122232
  incomp_terr |  -.3324087   .4539257    -0.73   0.464    -1.222087    .5572693
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0707912   .0338174    -2.09   0.036    -.1370721   -.0045104
 vdem_rescale |  -.0261971   .0569387    -0.46   0.645    -.1377949    .0854008
vdem_rescal~q |   .0028802   .0080817     0.36   0.722    -.0129595      .01872
 active_dyads |   .0066654   .1598132     0.04   0.967    -.3065627    .3198935
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.000604   1.288113    -0.78   0.437    -3.525259    1.524051
        1952  |  -1.442549   1.417378    -1.02   0.309    -4.220559    1.335462
        1953  |  -.0632695   1.361748    -0.05   0.963    -2.732246    2.605707
        1954  |  -3.333509   1.606528    -2.07   0.038    -6.482245   -.1847719
        1955  |  -1.568698   2.157097    -0.73   0.467     -5.79653    2.659133
        1956  |  -2.544664   2.335918    -1.09   0.276    -7.122979    2.033651
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.806937   1.851486    -0.98   0.329    -5.435782    1.821909
        1959  |   -2.68742   2.084065    -1.29   0.197    -6.772111    1.397272
        1960  |  -3.776893   1.516268    -2.49   0.013    -6.748724   -.8050621
        1961  |  -1.178807    1.51555    -0.78   0.437     -4.14923    1.791616
        1962  |  -.6117859   1.524739    -0.40   0.688    -3.600218    2.376647
        1963  |  -.6779735   1.492022    -0.45   0.650    -3.602284    2.246336
        1964  |  -1.396031   1.368031    -1.02   0.308    -4.077322     1.28526
        1965  |  -1.684067    1.38745    -1.21   0.225    -4.403419    1.035286
        1966  |  -1.576093   1.342366    -1.17   0.240    -4.207081    1.054896
        1967  |  -1.677203   1.333675    -1.26   0.209    -4.291159    .9367527
        1968  |  -1.955508   1.235696    -1.58   0.114    -4.377427    .4664118
        1969  |  -1.672808   1.274614    -1.31   0.189    -4.171005    .8253899
        1970  |  -1.592456    1.32563    -1.20   0.230    -4.190644    1.005732
        1971  |  -.6882311   1.145398    -0.60   0.548    -2.933171    1.556708
        1972  |  -2.300704    1.39186    -1.65   0.098    -5.028699    .4272911
        1973  |  -2.937317   1.536023    -1.91   0.056    -5.947866    .0732325
        1974  |  -1.362217   1.363464    -1.00   0.318    -4.034558    1.310124
        1975  |  -1.227582   1.300894    -0.94   0.345    -3.777287    1.322124
        1976  |  -1.041524   1.263905    -0.82   0.410    -3.518731    1.435684
        1977  |  -1.518107     1.2727    -1.19   0.233    -4.012553    .9763387
        1978  |  -.3154011   1.307687    -0.24   0.809     -2.87842    2.247617
        1979  |  -1.687506   1.278151    -1.32   0.187    -4.192636    .8176245
        1980  |   -1.48144   1.270182    -1.17   0.243    -3.970952    1.008071
        1981  |     -1.591   1.305202    -1.22   0.223    -4.149149    .9671487
        1982  |   -1.21938    1.24398    -0.98   0.327    -3.657536    1.218775
        1983  |  -1.151407   1.266156    -0.91   0.363    -3.633027    1.330213
        1984  |  -1.036448   1.237903    -0.84   0.402    -3.462694    1.389797
        1985  |   -1.32725   1.249024    -1.06   0.288    -3.775292    1.120791
        1986  |  -1.830959   1.296274    -1.41   0.158    -4.371609    .7096906
        1987  |  -1.501686   1.282618    -1.17   0.242    -4.015571    1.012198
        1988  |  -.7959041   1.253573    -0.63   0.525    -3.252862    1.661054
        1989  |  -2.525998   1.289465    -1.96   0.050    -5.053304    .0013073
        1990  |  -2.125831   1.325755    -1.60   0.109    -4.724263    .4726002
        1991  |   1.071593   .8226885     1.30   0.193    -.5408472    2.684033
        1992  |   1.855333   .7655995     2.42   0.015     .3547851     3.35588
        1993  |   1.185942   .7895696     1.50   0.133    -.3615856     2.73347
        1994  |   1.112351   .8599623     1.29   0.196    -.5731442    2.797846
        1995  |   1.148163   .8489018     1.35   0.176     -.515654     2.81198
        1996  |   1.091394   .8355112     1.31   0.191    -.5461781    2.728966
        1997  |   1.132018   .7993363     1.42   0.157    -.4346524    2.698688
        1998  |   1.926658    .773664     2.49   0.013      .410304    3.443011
        1999  |   1.913084   .7623642     2.51   0.012     .4188776    3.407291
        2000  |   1.235636   .8135154     1.52   0.129     -.358825    2.830097
        2001  |   .7822362   .7977203     0.98   0.327    -.7812668    2.345739
        2002  |   1.431012     .88158     1.62   0.105    -.2968528    3.158877
        2003  |   .4620895   1.258112     0.37   0.713    -2.003764    2.927943
        2004  |   1.600227   1.070075     1.50   0.135    -.4970806    3.697535
        2005  |   .8163572   1.025362     0.80   0.426    -1.193315     2.82603
        2006  |  -.3190346   .5515113    -0.58   0.563    -1.399977    .7619076
        2007  |   .1029382   .7704491     0.13   0.894    -1.407114    1.612991
        2008  |   .1427012   .3221013     0.44   0.658    -.4886057    .7740081
        2009  |   .6372651   .4802643     1.33   0.185    -.3040357    1.578566
        2010  |          0  (omitted)
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |  -1.205725   1.431292    -0.84   0.400    -4.011007    1.599556
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.959785   .2124558                       1.54338    2.376191
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |    2.66417   .2830093                      2.163419    3.280827
          rho |   .6832911   .0459764                      .5872315    .7659073
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_support incomp_terr si
> de_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_
> best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6805577.5  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4721695.8  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4679512.6  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4154669.7  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2840305.9  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -1572223.3  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -467008.98  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -386392.76  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood =  -356422.9  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -356210.72  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -356210.52  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -356210.52  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -252965.9  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5493.7769  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5485.8641  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5131.4093  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5128.7378  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5079.4738  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5030.7831  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5024.1083  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5024.0828  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5024.0828  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -76088.196  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10401.841  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -8008.4939  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5582.5699  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5124.4445  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5002.6677  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4882.3409  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4813.1407  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4806.9194  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood =   -4806.78  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood =  -4806.779  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood =  -4806.779  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        690
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        152

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.5
                                                              max =         21

                                                Wald chi2(33)     =      73.43
Log likelihood  =  -4806.779                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0001

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |    .116162   .2019049     0.58   0.565    -.2795643    .5118882
Theologica..  |   .0604101   .2178441     0.28   0.782    -.3665564    .4873766
              |
  claim_other |  -.3943102   .1257721    -3.14   0.002    -.6408189   -.1478015
rebel_ext_s~t |   .0724779   .0871179     0.83   0.405      -.09827    .2432259
  incomp_terr |  -.2917413    .125163    -2.33   0.020    -.5370562   -.0464263
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0033077   .0129733    -0.25   0.799    -.0287349    .0221195
 vdem_rescale |   .0164293   .0118957     1.38   0.167    -.0068857    .0397444
vdem_rescal~q |    .001246   .0022785     0.55   0.584    -.0032197    .0057118
     rcd_loot |   .0599175   .0933577     0.64   0.521    -.1230602    .2428952
    rcd_crime |   .4759066   .1026963     4.63   0.000     .2746256    .6771877
 active_dyads |  -.0326661   .0491266    -0.66   0.506    -.1289525    .0636202
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000636   .0000136     4.68   0.000      .000037    .0000902
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2160135   .1775363    -1.22   0.224    -.5639782    .1319513
        1992  |    .122142   .1777509     0.69   0.492    -.2262434    .4705275
        1993  |   .0070281   .1799782     0.04   0.969    -.3457227    .3597789
        1994  |  -.0422838   .1817865    -0.23   0.816    -.3985787    .3140111
        1995  |  -.2329502   .1855739    -1.26   0.209    -.5966683    .1307679
        1996  |  -.0274307   .1931906    -0.14   0.887    -.4060773    .3512159
        1997  |  -.1089697   .1949703    -0.56   0.576    -.4911045    .2731651
        1998  |  -.0993217   .1876758    -0.53   0.597    -.4671595    .2685161
        1999  |  -.0892437   .1872629    -0.48   0.634    -.4562722    .2777847
        2000  |  -.0964597   .1868109    -0.52   0.606    -.4626023    .2696828
        2001  |  -.3239764   .1880751    -1.72   0.085    -.6925967     .044644
        2002  |  -.0114099   .1824604    -0.06   0.950    -.3690258    .3462059
        2003  |  -.3040725   .1950759    -1.56   0.119    -.6864143    .0782692
        2004  |  -.1664679   .1942223    -0.86   0.391    -.5471367    .2142009
        2005  |  -.2258515   .2068098    -1.09   0.275    -.6311912    .1794882
        2006  |  -.2075756   .1968035    -1.05   0.292    -.5933035    .1781522
        2007  |  -.1054963   .1983601    -0.53   0.595     -.494275    .2832824
        2008  |  -.1332892   .1934915    -0.69   0.491    -.5125256    .2459472
        2009  |  -.1020096   .1914043    -0.53   0.594    -.4771552     .273136
        2010  |   -.307203   .2004562    -1.53   0.125      -.70009     .085684
        2014  |  -1.000308   1.036571    -0.97   0.335    -3.031949    1.031333
              |
        _cons |   .3920818   .4160142     0.94   0.346     -.423291    1.207455
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0900249   .1290252                     -.3429096    .1628598
        /ln_s |   4.583213   .2209836                      4.150093    5.016333
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9139084   .1179172                      .7097023    1.176872
            s |   97.82819   21.61843                      63.43989    150.8571
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 434.61               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_support incomp_terr si
> de_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_
> best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 46 groups (46 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -132897.47  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =   -6553.22  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5382.5615  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4728.1041  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4424.7574  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -4104.565  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -3857.4691  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -3745.0388  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -3684.8947  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -3566.1943  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -3540.5077  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -3540.1525  
Iteration 12:  log likelihood = -3540.1523  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        644
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        106

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.1
                                                              max =         21

                                                Wald chi2(32)     =      89.82
Log likelihood  = -3540.1523                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .2027238   .2563959     0.79   0.429     -.299803    .7052506
Theologica..  |   -.126443   .2653302    -0.48   0.634    -.6464807    .3935946
              |
  claim_other |  -.5982307   .1614013    -3.71   0.000    -.9145715   -.2818899
rebel_ext_s~t |  -.0044981    .095298    -0.05   0.962    -.1912788    .1822827
  incomp_terr |  -.3257063   .1463063    -2.23   0.026    -.6124613   -.0389512
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0247565   .0167559     1.48   0.140    -.0080844    .0575975
 vdem_rescale |   .0403643   .0132619     3.04   0.002     .0143715    .0663571
vdem_rescal~q |   .0032639   .0024678     1.32   0.186     -.001573    .0081007
     rcd_loot |  -.0479242   .1014665    -0.47   0.637    -.2467949    .1509466
    rcd_crime |   .5625804   .1136536     4.95   0.000     .3398235    .7853373
 active_dyads |   .0086729   .0546952     0.16   0.874    -.0985277    .1158735
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000542   .0000158     3.42   0.001     .0000232    .0000853
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2613092   .1770993    -1.48   0.140    -.6084174    .0857991
        1992  |    .027886   .1881075     0.15   0.882    -.3407979    .3965699
        1993  |  -.1924938   .1987601    -0.97   0.333    -.5820564    .1970688
        1994  |  -.1929683   .1969699    -0.98   0.327    -.5790223    .1930857
        1995  |  -.4020218   .2004534    -2.01   0.045    -.7949032   -.0091403
        1996  |  -.1865295   .2060285    -0.91   0.365    -.5903379    .2172789
        1997  |  -.3097736   .2061545    -1.50   0.133    -.7138291    .0942818
        1998  |  -.3114883   .2014555    -1.55   0.122    -.7063339    .0833572
        1999  |  -.3199616   .2022745    -1.58   0.114    -.7164124    .0764892
        2000  |   -.277492   .1959121    -1.42   0.157    -.6614727    .1064887
        2001  |  -.4932801   .1962322    -2.51   0.012    -.8778881   -.1086721
        2002  |  -.1735641   .1894631    -0.92   0.360    -.5449051    .1977768
        2003  |  -.4826182   .2033919    -2.37   0.018    -.8812589   -.0839774
        2004  |  -.3332413   .2007844    -1.66   0.097    -.7267714    .0602889
        2005  |  -.4232664   .2143889    -1.97   0.048     -.843461   -.0030718
        2006  |  -.4032339    .206396    -1.95   0.051    -.8077626    .0012947
        2007  |  -.3277277   .2097278    -1.56   0.118    -.7387866    .0833312
        2008  |  -.3699497   .2104691    -1.76   0.079    -.7824614    .0425621
        2009  |  -.3155236   .2073373    -1.52   0.128    -.7218973      .09085
        2010  |  -.5380679   .2194495    -2.45   0.014    -.9681811   -.1079547
              |
        _cons |  -.0156497   .5200158    -0.03   0.976    -1.034862    1.003563
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *******************************
. * Table A8-A. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Specific Types of Ideologic
> al Claim – Monadic, NAGs Data *
. ******************************************************************************
> *******************************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist cl
> aim_libdem rebel_ext_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.4019  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -966.85164  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -958.6698  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -958.59902  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -958.59901  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -958.59901
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -908.19374
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -874.80242
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -850.55921
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood =  -831.9778
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -817.48374
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -806.61241
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -800.48887
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -801.95965

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -800.46004  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -760.78456  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.85823  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.84017  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.84017  (backed up)

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(71)     =     285.52
Log pseudolikelihood  = -755.84017              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.225825   .5621609     2.18   0.029     .1240095     2.32764
Christian-~l  |   1.205823    .976001     1.24   0.217    -.7071044    3.118749
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .5183295   .5617101     0.92   0.356     -.582602    1.619261
Muslim-The~l  |   1.284055   .6749069     1.90   0.057    -.0387377    2.606849
              |
claim_commu~t |   .3009153   .5024433     0.60   0.549    -.6838554    1.285686
 claim_libdem |  -.4516992   .6186192    -0.73   0.465     -1.66417    .7607721
rebel_ext_s~t |   .5255376   .3188491     1.65   0.099    -.0993952     1.15047
  incomp_terr |  -.2390374   .4526523    -0.53   0.597     -1.12622    .6481449
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0807987   .0342974    -2.36   0.018    -.1480205    -.013577
 vdem_rescale |  -.0286011   .0580842    -0.49   0.622     -.142444    .0852419
vdem_rescal~q |   .0039606   .0080125     0.49   0.621    -.0117435    .0196648
 active_dyads |   .0728045    .162736     0.45   0.655    -.2461522    .3917611
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9358727   1.304188    -0.72   0.473    -3.492033    1.620288
        1952  |  -1.429291   1.427382    -1.00   0.317    -4.226908    1.368327
        1953  |   .0469032   1.428557     0.03   0.974    -2.753017    2.846824
        1954  |  -3.321745   1.604918    -2.07   0.038    -6.467327   -.1761633
        1955  |   -1.54778    2.11975    -0.73   0.465    -5.702413    2.606853
        1956  |  -2.385916   2.311799    -1.03   0.302    -6.916959    2.145128
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.66165   1.821984    -0.91   0.362    -5.232674    1.909373
        1959  |  -2.481425   2.045734    -1.21   0.225     -6.49099     1.52814
        1960  |  -3.596156   1.531595    -2.35   0.019    -6.598028   -.5942839
        1961  |  -.9497733   1.515658    -0.63   0.531    -3.920408    2.020861
        1962  |  -.4079173   1.523377    -0.27   0.789    -3.393681    2.577847
        1963  |  -.4684728    1.50349    -0.31   0.755    -3.415259    2.478313
        1964  |  -1.206501    1.39069    -0.87   0.386    -3.932204    1.519202
        1965  |  -1.531929   1.407819    -1.09   0.277    -4.291203    1.227345
        1966  |  -1.383713   1.362459    -1.02   0.310    -4.054083    1.286657
        1967  |  -1.497699   1.370462    -1.09   0.274    -4.183756    1.188358
        1968  |  -1.761922   1.266403    -1.39   0.164    -4.244026    .7201814
        1969  |  -1.476123   1.306851    -1.13   0.259    -4.037504    1.085258
        1970  |  -1.392519   1.376199    -1.01   0.312    -4.089818    1.304781
        1971  |  -.4666306   1.192043    -0.39   0.695    -2.802993    1.869731
        1972  |  -2.125061   1.456198    -1.46   0.144    -4.979157    .7290342
        1973  |  -2.735471   1.602109    -1.71   0.088    -5.875546    .4046051
        1974  |  -1.168419   1.417668    -0.82   0.410    -3.946997    1.610158
        1975  |  -1.045015   1.345295    -0.78   0.437    -3.681745    1.591714
        1976  |  -.8815676   1.301159    -0.68   0.498    -3.431792    1.668657
        1977  |  -1.365591   1.316388    -1.04   0.300    -3.945664    1.214482
        1978  |  -.1482247   1.347025    -0.11   0.912    -2.788345    2.491896
        1979  |  -1.479227   1.316666    -1.12   0.261    -4.059845    1.101392
        1980  |  -1.239827    1.30375    -0.95   0.342     -3.79513    1.315476
        1981  |  -1.362802   1.335068    -1.02   0.307    -3.979487    1.253883
        1982  |   -.995469   1.279321    -0.78   0.436    -3.502893    1.511955
        1983  |  -.9182635   1.301406    -0.71   0.480    -3.468972    1.632446
        1984  |  -.7889275    1.27658    -0.62   0.537    -3.290979    1.713124
        1985  |  -1.081154   1.291346    -0.84   0.402    -3.612145    1.449837
        1986  |  -1.585976   1.324208    -1.20   0.231    -4.181376    1.009424
        1987  |  -1.221609   1.309284    -0.93   0.351    -3.787758     1.34454
        1988  |  -.5074272   1.289792    -0.39   0.694    -3.035373    2.020518
        1989  |  -2.205961   1.320141    -1.67   0.095     -4.79339    .3814686
        1990  |  -1.828663   1.350455    -1.35   0.176    -4.475507    .8181808
        1991  |  -2.117098   1.351442    -1.57   0.117    -4.765875    .5316797
        1992  |  -1.261519    1.33998    -0.94   0.346    -3.887832    1.364793
        1993  |  -1.943014   1.336089    -1.45   0.146    -4.561701    .6756734
        1994  |  -1.991961   1.400477    -1.42   0.155    -4.736845    .7529226
        1995  |   -1.97114   1.408274    -1.40   0.162    -4.731307    .7890263
        1996  |  -2.030448   1.352947    -1.50   0.133    -4.682175    .6212789
        1997  |  -1.961527    1.33733    -1.47   0.142    -4.582646    .6595927
        1998  |  -1.189441   1.333402    -0.89   0.372    -3.802861    1.423979
        1999  |  -1.202912   1.352074    -0.89   0.374    -3.852929    1.447104
        2000  |  -1.887246   1.350226    -1.40   0.162     -4.53364    .7591483
        2001  |  -2.319629   1.345407    -1.72   0.085    -4.956579    .3173203
        2002  |   -1.66764    1.49891    -1.11   0.266    -4.605448    1.270169
        2003  |   -2.62542   1.634636    -1.61   0.108    -5.829247    .5784082
        2004  |  -1.541343   1.497558    -1.03   0.303    -4.476502    1.393817
        2005  |  -2.243935   1.621997    -1.38   0.167    -5.422991    .9351208
        2006  |   -3.34613   1.440632    -2.32   0.020    -6.169716   -.5225439
        2007  |  -2.942562   1.490622    -1.97   0.048    -5.864127   -.0209973
        2008  |  -2.900522   1.395767    -2.08   0.038    -5.636175   -.1648682
        2009  |    -2.4215   1.377571    -1.76   0.079    -5.121489    .2784893
        2010  |  -3.071488   1.395942    -2.20   0.028    -5.807484   -.3354921
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |  -1.125948   1.326923    -0.85   0.396    -3.726669    1.474773
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.914861   .2153199                      1.492842    2.336881
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.604995   .2804536                      2.109437    3.216971
          rho |   .6734903   .0473491                        .57493    .7587856
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist cl
> aim_libdem rebel_ext_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2010.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.4019  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -966.85164  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -958.6698  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -958.59902  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -958.59901  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -958.59901
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -908.19374
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -874.80242
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -850.55921
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood =  -831.9778
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -817.48374
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -806.61241
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -800.48887
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -801.95965

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -800.46004  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -760.78456  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.85823  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.84017  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.84017  (backed up)

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(71)     =     285.52
Log pseudolikelihood  = -755.84017              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.225825   .5621609     2.18   0.029     .1240095     2.32764
Christian-~l  |   1.205823    .976001     1.24   0.217    -.7071044    3.118749
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .5183295   .5617101     0.92   0.356     -.582602    1.619261
Muslim-The~l  |   1.284055   .6749069     1.90   0.057    -.0387377    2.606849
              |
claim_commu~t |   .3009153   .5024433     0.60   0.549    -.6838554    1.285686
 claim_libdem |  -.4516992   .6186192    -0.73   0.465     -1.66417    .7607721
rebel_ext_s~t |   .5255376   .3188491     1.65   0.099    -.0993952     1.15047
  incomp_terr |  -.2390374   .4526523    -0.53   0.597     -1.12622    .6481449
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0807987   .0342974    -2.36   0.018    -.1480205    -.013577
 vdem_rescale |  -.0286011   .0580842    -0.49   0.622     -.142444    .0852419
vdem_rescal~q |   .0039606   .0080125     0.49   0.621    -.0117435    .0196648
 active_dyads |   .0728045    .162736     0.45   0.655    -.2461522    .3917611
post_cold_war |  -3.071488   1.395942    -2.20   0.028    -5.807484   -.3354921
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9358727   1.304188    -0.72   0.473    -3.492033    1.620288
        1952  |  -1.429291   1.427382    -1.00   0.317    -4.226908    1.368327
        1953  |   .0469032   1.428557     0.03   0.974    -2.753017    2.846824
        1954  |  -3.321745   1.604918    -2.07   0.038    -6.467327   -.1761633
        1955  |   -1.54778    2.11975    -0.73   0.465    -5.702413    2.606853
        1956  |  -2.385916   2.311799    -1.03   0.302    -6.916959    2.145128
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.66165   1.821984    -0.91   0.362    -5.232674    1.909373
        1959  |  -2.481425   2.045734    -1.21   0.225     -6.49099     1.52814
        1960  |  -3.596156   1.531595    -2.35   0.019    -6.598028   -.5942839
        1961  |  -.9497733   1.515658    -0.63   0.531    -3.920408    2.020861
        1962  |  -.4079173   1.523377    -0.27   0.789    -3.393681    2.577847
        1963  |  -.4684728    1.50349    -0.31   0.755    -3.415259    2.478313
        1964  |  -1.206501    1.39069    -0.87   0.386    -3.932204    1.519202
        1965  |  -1.531929   1.407819    -1.09   0.277    -4.291203    1.227345
        1966  |  -1.383713   1.362459    -1.02   0.310    -4.054083    1.286657
        1967  |  -1.497699   1.370462    -1.09   0.274    -4.183756    1.188358
        1968  |  -1.761922   1.266403    -1.39   0.164    -4.244026    .7201814
        1969  |  -1.476123   1.306851    -1.13   0.259    -4.037504    1.085258
        1970  |  -1.392519   1.376199    -1.01   0.312    -4.089818    1.304781
        1971  |  -.4666306   1.192043    -0.39   0.695    -2.802993    1.869731
        1972  |  -2.125061   1.456198    -1.46   0.144    -4.979157    .7290342
        1973  |  -2.735471   1.602109    -1.71   0.088    -5.875546    .4046051
        1974  |  -1.168419   1.417668    -0.82   0.410    -3.946997    1.610158
        1975  |  -1.045015   1.345295    -0.78   0.437    -3.681745    1.591714
        1976  |  -.8815676   1.301159    -0.68   0.498    -3.431792    1.668657
        1977  |  -1.365591   1.316388    -1.04   0.300    -3.945664    1.214482
        1978  |  -.1482247   1.347025    -0.11   0.912    -2.788345    2.491896
        1979  |  -1.479227   1.316666    -1.12   0.261    -4.059845    1.101392
        1980  |  -1.239827    1.30375    -0.95   0.342     -3.79513    1.315476
        1981  |  -1.362802   1.335068    -1.02   0.307    -3.979487    1.253883
        1982  |   -.995469   1.279321    -0.78   0.436    -3.502893    1.511955
        1983  |  -.9182635   1.301406    -0.71   0.480    -3.468972    1.632446
        1984  |  -.7889275    1.27658    -0.62   0.537    -3.290979    1.713124
        1985  |  -1.081154   1.291346    -0.84   0.402    -3.612145    1.449837
        1986  |  -1.585976   1.324208    -1.20   0.231    -4.181376    1.009424
        1987  |  -1.221609   1.309284    -0.93   0.351    -3.787758     1.34454
        1988  |  -.5074272   1.289792    -0.39   0.694    -3.035373    2.020518
        1989  |  -2.205961   1.320141    -1.67   0.095     -4.79339    .3814686
        1990  |  -1.828663   1.350455    -1.35   0.176    -4.475507    .8181808
        1991  |   .9543902   .8299336     1.15   0.250    -.6722497     2.58103
        1992  |   1.809969    .763431     2.37   0.018     .3136713    3.306266
        1993  |   1.128474    .775319     1.46   0.146    -.3911229    2.648072
        1994  |   1.079527    .842891     1.28   0.200    -.5725092    2.731563
        1995  |   1.100348   .8616732     1.28   0.202    -.5885007    2.789196
        1996  |    1.04104   .8478986     1.23   0.220    -.6208107    2.702891
        1997  |   1.109961   .7957462     1.39   0.163    -.4496725    2.669595
        1998  |   1.882047   .7701167     2.44   0.015     .3726459    3.391448
        1999  |   1.868576   .7651009     2.44   0.015     .3690053    3.368146
        2000  |   1.184242   .8064857     1.47   0.142    -.3964407    2.764925
        2001  |   .7518587    .790416     0.95   0.341    -.7973282    2.301046
        2002  |   1.403848   .8773149     1.60   0.110    -.3156573    3.123354
        2003  |   .4460685   1.250531     0.36   0.721    -2.004928    2.897065
        2004  |   1.530145   1.068992     1.43   0.152     -.565041    3.625332
        2005  |    .827553   1.024185     0.81   0.419    -1.179812    2.834918
        2006  |  -.2746419   .5636974    -0.49   0.626    -1.379469    .8301847
        2007  |   .1289256   .7673903     0.17   0.867    -1.375132    1.632983
        2008  |   .1709665   .3306672     0.52   0.605    -.4771293    .8190622
        2009  |    .649988   .4780585     1.36   0.174    -.2869893    1.586965
        2010  |          0  (omitted)
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |  -1.125948   1.326923    -0.85   0.396    -3.726669    1.474773
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.914861   .2153199                      1.492842    2.336881
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.604995   .2804536                      2.109437    3.216971
          rho |   .6734903   .0473491                        .57493    .7587856
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type c.
> claim_communist c.claim_libdem) rebel_ext_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vde
> m_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(ro
> bust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2011.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2011.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2013.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2013.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2014.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      2014.year dropped and 1 obs not used

note: 2010.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.4019  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -963.79364  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -955.51614  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -955.41394  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -955.41394  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -955.41394
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -905.41027
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -872.40819
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -848.38629
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -829.95245
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -815.48398
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -804.50798
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -798.67669
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -798.96882

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =   -798.446  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.40373  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -750.48427  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -750.46623  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -750.46549  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -750.46492  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -750.46492  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,055
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        395

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         44

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(77)     =     311.10
Log pseudolikelihood  = -750.46492              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 395 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   -2.39461   1.526453    -1.57   0.117    -5.386404    .5971838
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.428388   .6735987     2.12   0.034     .1081593    2.748618
Christian-~l  |   2.018831   1.020105     1.98   0.048     .0194615      4.0182
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .3334318   .6374521     0.52   0.601    -.9159513    1.582815
Muslim-The~l  |   2.331189   .8942026     2.61   0.009     .5785838    4.083794
              |
claim_commu~t |   .3676023   .5490879     0.67   0.503    -.7085902    1.443795
 claim_libdem |    .238604   .7655551     0.31   0.755    -1.261856    1.739064
              |
post_cold_war#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |  -.7079203   .9418129    -0.75   0.452     -2.55384    1.137999
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |  -1.330375   .8186896    -1.63   0.104    -2.934977    .2742271
              |
post_cold_war#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .2161006   .9473145     0.23   0.820    -1.640602    2.072803
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -1.680102   .9939041    -1.69   0.091    -3.628119    .2679138
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |   .0771508   .9535142     0.08   0.936    -1.791703    1.946004
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |  -1.544132    .743541    -2.08   0.038    -3.001445   -.0868181
              |
rebel_ext_s~t |   .5352495   .3339235     1.60   0.109    -.1192285    1.189728
  incomp_terr |  -.2273837   .4736312    -0.48   0.631    -1.155684    .7009163
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0824795   .0345749    -2.39   0.017    -.1502451   -.0147139
 vdem_rescale |  -.0462815   .0648589    -0.71   0.475    -.1734027    .0808397
vdem_rescal~q |   .0030264   .0082336     0.37   0.713    -.0131112     .019164
 active_dyads |   .0029051   .1632586     0.02   0.986     -.317076    .3228861
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9252986   1.307368    -0.71   0.479    -3.487694    1.637096
        1952  |  -1.416525   1.443877    -0.98   0.327    -4.246473    1.413422
        1953  |   .0616518   1.407972     0.04   0.965    -2.697922    2.821226
        1954  |  -3.354284   1.613614    -2.08   0.038     -6.51691   -.1916588
        1955  |   -1.49082   2.155693    -0.69   0.489      -5.7159     2.73426
        1956  |  -2.366031   2.333241    -1.01   0.311    -6.939098    2.207037
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.579854   1.851649    -0.85   0.394    -5.209019    2.049311
        1959  |  -2.433525   2.075897    -1.17   0.241    -6.502208    1.635158
        1960  |  -3.559834   1.536872    -2.32   0.021    -6.572047   -.5476216
        1961  |  -.9079812   1.528823    -0.59   0.553    -3.904419    2.088457
        1962  |  -.3997829   1.535017    -0.26   0.795     -3.40836    2.608794
        1963  |  -.4422619   1.520092    -0.29   0.771    -3.421587    2.537063
        1964  |  -1.235546   1.396416    -0.88   0.376    -3.972471     1.50138
        1965  |  -1.571652   1.401834    -1.12   0.262    -4.319197    1.175893
        1966  |  -1.397763   1.362829    -1.03   0.305    -4.068859    1.273334
        1967  |  -1.524743   1.366666    -1.12   0.265     -4.20336    1.153874
        1968  |  -1.789297   1.273654    -1.40   0.160    -4.285614    .7070199
        1969  |  -1.472354    1.30582    -1.13   0.260    -4.031714    1.087006
        1970  |  -1.371772   1.365707    -1.00   0.315    -4.048509    1.304965
        1971  |  -.4056408   1.180803    -0.34   0.731    -2.719972    1.908691
        1972  |  -2.142819   1.438799    -1.49   0.136    -4.962813    .6771757
        1973  |  -2.753022   1.573011    -1.75   0.080    -5.836068    .3300234
        1974  |  -1.175148   1.400192    -0.84   0.401    -3.919473    1.569178
        1975  |  -1.050749   1.334861    -0.79   0.431    -3.667029     1.56553
        1976  |  -.8941856   1.305133    -0.69   0.493    -3.452199    1.663828
        1977  |  -1.387239   1.320381    -1.05   0.293    -3.975138    1.200659
        1978  |  -.1590298   1.354208    -0.12   0.907    -2.813228    2.495169
        1979  |  -1.525627   1.329916    -1.15   0.251    -4.132214    1.080961
        1980  |  -1.296528      1.317    -0.98   0.325    -3.877801    1.284745
        1981  |  -1.416872   1.344942    -1.05   0.292     -4.05291    1.219166
        1982  |   -1.03084   1.283094    -0.80   0.422    -3.545659    1.483978
        1983  |  -.9564595   1.312837    -0.73   0.466    -3.529573    1.616654
        1984  |  -.7692577   1.279944    -0.60   0.548    -3.277901    1.739386
        1985  |  -1.102194   1.289729    -0.85   0.393    -3.630017    1.425628
        1986  |  -1.616756   1.340193    -1.21   0.228    -4.243487    1.009975
        1987  |  -1.254559   1.323592    -0.95   0.343    -3.848753    1.339634
        1988  |  -.5212342   1.294138    -0.40   0.687    -3.057698     2.01523
        1989  |  -2.359422   1.354091    -1.74   0.081    -5.013391    .2945471
        1990  |  -1.871521   1.391953    -1.34   0.179    -4.599698    .8566569
        1991  |    1.02712   .8130335     1.26   0.206    -.5663966    2.620636
        1992  |   1.815917   .7813983     2.32   0.020      .284405     3.34743
        1993  |   1.104085   .7711278     1.43   0.152    -.4072979    2.615467
        1994  |   1.065528   .8389671     1.27   0.204    -.5788173    2.709873
        1995  |   1.101566   .8240696     1.34   0.181    -.5135806    2.716713
        1996  |   1.030054   .8180764     1.26   0.208    -.5733462    2.633454
        1997  |   1.150697   .8079698     1.42   0.154     -.432895    2.734289
        1998  |   1.906459    .779679     2.45   0.014     .3783159    3.434601
        1999  |    1.92408   .7685658     2.50   0.012     .4177186    3.430441
        2000  |   1.252418   .8174253     1.53   0.125    -.3497065    2.854542
        2001  |   .8185559   .7939863     1.03   0.303    -.7376287     2.37474
        2002  |   1.471646   .8518046     1.73   0.084    -.1978605    3.141152
        2003  |   .4825637   1.239773     0.39   0.697    -1.947347    2.912474
        2004  |   1.568906   1.059012     1.48   0.138    -.5067194    3.644532
        2005  |   .7791355    1.02133     0.76   0.446    -1.222635    2.780906
        2006  |  -.3132433   .5467524    -0.57   0.567    -1.384858    .7583716
        2007  |    .112622   .7660571     0.15   0.883    -1.388822    1.614066
        2008  |   .1420732    .317881     0.45   0.655    -.4809622    .7651085
        2009  |   .6152201   .4796752     1.28   0.200    -.3249259    1.555366
        2010  |          0  (omitted)
        2011  |          0  (empty)
        2013  |          0  (empty)
        2014  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |  -1.334401   1.375102    -0.97   0.332     -4.02955    1.360749
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.996539    .224842                      1.555857    2.437222
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.713582   .3050637                      2.176958    3.382486
          rho |   .6911907   .0479917                      .5902526    .7766716
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist claim_libdem
>  rebel_ext_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_l
> oot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6635095.4  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3864598.2  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3567472.9  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2702163.4  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2220139.2  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -1263040.1  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -393546.59  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -352591.77  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood =  -349999.8  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -349992.25  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -349992.25  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -252965.9  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5493.7769  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5485.8641  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5131.4093  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5128.7378  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5128.7335  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5079.4585  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5030.2968  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5019.4635  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5019.3677  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5019.3677  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -75276.708  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10366.411  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7998.5361  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5557.3157  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5114.3358  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4967.0419  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4880.1759  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4833.0521  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4809.6781  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4804.5281  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4804.5002  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -4804.5002  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        690
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        152

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.5
                                                              max =         21

                                                Wald chi2(36)     =      78.67
Log likelihood  = -4804.5002                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0001

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .0153312   .1490344     0.10   0.918    -.2767709    .3074332
Christian-~l  |  -.0144086   .2724884    -0.05   0.958     -.548476    .5196588
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   -.107373   .1494487    -0.72   0.472    -.4002871    .1855411
Muslim-The~l  |  -.1253618   .1581172    -0.79   0.428    -.4352659    .1845422
              |
claim_commu~t |  -.5388221   .1501248    -3.59   0.000    -.8330612    -.244583
 claim_libdem |  -.3278471   .1694634    -1.93   0.053    -.6599893     .004295
rebel_ext_s~t |   .0841227    .089008     0.95   0.345    -.0903298    .2585751
  incomp_terr |  -.3071074   .1305576    -2.35   0.019    -.5629956   -.0512193
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0069637   .0133166    -0.52   0.601    -.0330637    .0191363
 vdem_rescale |   .0244835   .0130957     1.87   0.062    -.0011835    .0501506
vdem_rescal~q |   .0004117   .0023189     0.18   0.859    -.0041334    .0049567
     rcd_loot |   .0613505   .0939327     0.65   0.514    -.1227541    .2454552
    rcd_crime |   .4900112   .1036333     4.73   0.000     .2868937    .6931287
 active_dyads |    -.02801   .0490069    -0.57   0.568    -.1240618    .0680418
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000619   .0000134     4.60   0.000     .0000356    .0000883
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2122813   .1776953    -1.19   0.232    -.5605577    .1359951
        1992  |   .1204382   .1780178     0.68   0.499    -.2284704    .4693467
        1993  |   .0022335   .1794863     0.01   0.990    -.3495532    .3540203
        1994  |  -.0498116   .1822542    -0.27   0.785    -.4070233    .3074001
        1995  |  -.2424057   .1859183    -1.30   0.192     -.606799    .1219875
        1996  |  -.0394336   .1929671    -0.20   0.838    -.4176422     .338775
        1997  |  -.1318397   .1950657    -0.68   0.499    -.5141613     .250482
        1998  |  -.1055229   .1875241    -0.56   0.574    -.4730633    .2620175
        1999  |   -.115941   .1877002    -0.62   0.537    -.4838266    .2519445
        2000  |  -.1140435   .1861698    -0.61   0.540    -.4789296    .2508425
        2001  |  -.3474109   .1873064    -1.85   0.064    -.7145248     .019703
        2002  |  -.0385718   .1828593    -0.21   0.833    -.3969695    .3198259
        2003  |  -.3127214   .1954164    -1.60   0.110    -.6957304    .0702877
        2004  |  -.1719354   .1954234    -0.88   0.379    -.5549582    .2110874
        2005  |  -.2305036   .2082042    -1.11   0.268    -.6385764    .1775692
        2006  |  -.2059744   .1968787    -1.05   0.295    -.5918495    .1799008
        2007  |  -.1025367    .198806    -0.52   0.606    -.4921893    .2871159
        2008  |  -.1278852   .1936452    -0.66   0.509    -.5074228    .2516525
        2009  |  -.1018831   .1915644    -0.53   0.595    -.4773425    .2735762
        2010  |  -.3118865   .2005113    -1.56   0.120    -.7048814    .0811084
        2014  |  -1.084984    1.04168    -1.04   0.298     -3.12664    .9566717
              |
        _cons |   .6780685   .3951424     1.72   0.086    -.0963963    1.452533
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0976629    .129821                     -.3521074    .1567816
        /ln_s |   4.538488   .2253472                      4.096815     4.98016
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9069546   .1177417                      .7032046     1.16974
            s |   93.54921   21.08106                      60.14842    145.4977
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 429.73               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist claim_libdem
>  rebel_ext_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_l
> oot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 46 groups (46 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -104977.35  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4627.3977  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4433.3861  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -3912.1726  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -3816.8749  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -3613.4187  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -3537.9056  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -3536.0698  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -3536.0597  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -3536.0597  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        644
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        106

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.1
                                                              max =         21

                                                Wald chi2(35)     =      98.47
Log likelihood  = -3536.0597                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .0040631    .201122     0.02   0.984    -.3901289     .398255
Christian-~l  |   .2503012   .3472205     0.72   0.471    -.4302385    .9308408
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.2899521   .1864344    -1.56   0.120    -.6553569    .0754527
Muslim-The~l  |  -.4445255   .1861471    -2.39   0.017    -.8093671   -.0796838
              |
claim_commu~t |  -.6452224   .1831423    -3.52   0.000    -1.004175   -.2862701
 claim_libdem |  -.4186196   .2305766    -1.82   0.069    -.8705414    .0333022
rebel_ext_s~t |   .0094897   .0988158     0.10   0.923    -.1841856     .203165
  incomp_terr |  -.2426455   .1670773    -1.45   0.146    -.5701111      .08482
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0131499   .0176712     0.74   0.457     -.021485    .0477849
 vdem_rescale |    .052747    .014862     3.55   0.000      .023618     .081876
vdem_rescal~q |   .0025464   .0025322     1.01   0.315    -.0024167    .0075095
     rcd_loot |  -.0470503   .1025861    -0.46   0.646    -.2481153    .1540147
    rcd_crime |   .5891749   .1152712     5.11   0.000     .3632474    .8151024
 active_dyads |   .0138091   .0547689     0.25   0.801     -.093536    .1211542
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000467   .0000156     3.00   0.003     .0000162    .0000772
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2215526   .1762937    -1.26   0.209    -.5670819    .1239767
        1992  |   .0469753   .1885364     0.25   0.803    -.3225493       .4165
        1993  |  -.1629861    .197421    -0.83   0.409    -.5499242    .2239521
        1994  |   -.199688   .1988254    -1.00   0.315    -.5893787    .1900027
        1995  |  -.3899447   .1995078    -1.95   0.051    -.7809729    .0010835
        1996  |  -.1813611   .2042995    -0.89   0.375    -.5817808    .2190586
        1997  |  -.3309088   .2064254    -1.60   0.109    -.7354951    .0736775
        1998  |  -.3036156   .2018638    -1.50   0.133    -.6992614    .0920303
        1999  |  -.3309121    .204427    -1.62   0.106    -.7315817    .0697574
        2000  |  -.2673744    .197209    -1.36   0.175    -.6538969    .1191482
        2001  |  -.5024173   .1953288    -2.57   0.010    -.8852548   -.1195798
        2002  |  -.1658842   .1899901    -0.87   0.383     -.538258    .2064895
        2003  |  -.4628763   .2038751    -2.27   0.023    -.8624641   -.0632884
        2004  |  -.3073727   .2034578    -1.51   0.131    -.7061428    .0913973
        2005  |  -.3940813   .2158549    -1.83   0.068    -.8171492    .0289867
        2006  |  -.3926393    .206633    -1.90   0.057    -.7976324    .0123539
        2007  |  -.2942586   .2105094    -1.40   0.162    -.7068495    .1183323
        2008  |  -.3350896   .2105102    -1.59   0.111    -.7476821    .0775028
        2009  |   -.283367   .2067533    -1.37   0.171    -.6885961    .1218621
        2010  |  -.5341648   .2188617    -2.44   0.015    -.9631259   -.1052037
              |
        _cons |   .4722711   .5148264     0.92   0.359      -.53677    1.481312
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. **********************************
. * SET DATA AS SURVIVAL-TIME DATA *
. **********************************
. 
. stset year1 if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, failure(ep_end==1) id(dyad_id_rev) origi
> n(time start_year_1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyad_id_rev
     failure event:  ep_end == 1
obs. time interval:  (year1[_n-1], year1]
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time start_year_1
            if exp:  obsolete_ucdp_data==0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2610  total observations
         34  ignored at outset because of -if <exp>-
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2576  observations remaining, representing
        507  subjects
        433  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
   3381.196  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =        70

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ********
. * Table A2-B. “Risk” of Armed Conflict Termination – Dyadic, 1950-2017, ACD2EP
> R Data *
. ******************************************************************************
> ********
. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_ethnic_ideology incomp_rel_aff incomp_ethnic_
> id rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale
>  vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          489             Number of obs    =       2,463
No. of failures      =          414
Time at risk         =  3280.596436
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =      107.69
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1765.0375             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.5380516   .1132597    -4.75   0.000    -.7600365   -.3160668
incomp_ethn~y |    .327242   .1630488     2.01   0.045     .0076723    .6468117
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0823445    .112544    -0.73   0.464    -.3029266    .1382376
incomp_ethn~d |  -.5185787   .1642029    -3.16   0.002    -.8404105   -.1967469
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.0692153   .2295122    -0.30   0.763     -.519051    .3806203
  incomp_terr |  -.0431629   .1270604    -0.34   0.734    -.2921966    .2058709
intensity_l~l |  -.3041742   .1640638    -1.85   0.064    -.6257333     .017385
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0132585   .0096789    -1.37   0.171    -.0322289    .0057118
 vdem_rescale |  -.0137739    .015509    -0.89   0.374     -.044171    .0166233
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0009554   .0028468    -0.34   0.737    -.0065351    .0046243
 active_dyads |  -.8326578   .0993677    -8.38   0.000    -1.027415   -.6379006
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_ethnic_ideology incomp_rel_aff incomp_ethnic_
> id rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale
>  vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog stra
> ta(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          489             Number of obs    =       2,463
No. of failures      =          414
Time at risk         =  3280.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      121.20
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1760.1677             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.5094524   .1141837    -4.46   0.000    -.7332483   -.2856565
incomp_ethn~y |   .2959587   .1618389     1.83   0.067    -.0212397     .613157
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0915626   .1090328    -0.84   0.401    -.3052629    .1221378
incomp_ethn~d |  -.5094314   .1645711    -3.10   0.002    -.8319847    -.186878
rebel_ext_m~t |   -.135674   .2371871    -0.57   0.567    -.6005521     .329204
  incomp_terr |   .0063139   .1230491     0.05   0.959    -.2348578    .2474857
intensity_l~l |  -.2721345   .1653556    -1.65   0.100    -.5962255    .0519566
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0201079    .009858    -2.04   0.041    -.0394292   -.0007865
 vdem_rescale |  -.0154693   .0152441    -1.01   0.310    -.0453472    .0144086
vdem_rescal~q |   .0010036   .0029056     0.35   0.730    -.0046914    .0066986
 active_dyads |  -.8493284   .0986814    -8.61   0.000     -1.04274   -.6559165
post_cold_war |   .3626028   .1176998     3.08   0.002     .1319154    .5932903
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.incomp_ideology_all incomp_ethnic_ideology c.incomp_re
> l_aff c.incomp_ethnic_id) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level si
> de_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) n
> olog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          489             Number of obs    =       2,463
No. of failures      =          414
Time at risk         =  3280.596436
                                                Wald chi2(16)    =      142.03
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1751.6719             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -.2655495   .2638036    -1.01   0.314    -.7825951    .2514961
incomp_ideo~l |  -.6001698   .1820268    -3.30   0.001    -.9569358   -.2434038
1.incomp_et~y |   .0812352   .2591098     0.31   0.754    -.4266107    .5890811
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1098347   .1729834    -0.63   0.525    -.4488759    .2292066
incomp_ethn~d |  -.8566973   .2426603    -3.53   0.000    -1.332303   -.3810919
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |   .0968769   .2290009     0.42   0.672    -.3519567    .5457105
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ethn~y |
         1 1  |   .2756498   .3528777     0.78   0.435    -.4159777    .9672774
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |    .055432   .2213689     0.25   0.802     -.378443     .489307
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ethn~d |
           1  |   .6529285   .3526921     1.85   0.064    -.0383352    1.344192
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2439595   .2377883    -1.03   0.305    -.7100159    .2220969
  incomp_terr |   .0759121   .1329302     0.57   0.568    -.1846264    .3364505
intensity_l~l |  -.2576824   .1666219    -1.55   0.122    -.5842554    .0688906
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0205419   .0097557    -2.11   0.035    -.0396627   -.0014212
 vdem_rescale |  -.0164339   .0155051    -1.06   0.289    -.0468234    .0139556
vdem_rescal~q |   .0007625   .0029863     0.26   0.798    -.0050906    .0066156
 active_dyads |  -.8683856   .1000967    -8.68   0.000    -1.064572   -.6721996
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_ethnic_ideology incomp_rel_aff incomp_ethnic_
> id rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale
>  vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          489             Number of obs    =       2,463
No. of failures      =          414
Time at risk         =  3280.596436
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =      109.48
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1764.3284             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.4925231   .1219183    -4.04   0.000    -.7314787   -.2535676
 Theological  |  -.7429184   .2152929    -3.45   0.001    -1.164885   -.3209521
        Both  |  -.5548013   .1739358    -3.19   0.001    -.8957092   -.2138933
              |
incomp_ethn~y |   .3252985   .1627829     2.00   0.046       .00625     .644347
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0601466   .1164848    -0.52   0.606    -.2884526    .1681594
incomp_ethn~d |  -.5223297   .1641211    -3.18   0.001    -.8440012   -.2006582
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.0964744   .2331632    -0.41   0.679    -.5534658     .360517
  incomp_terr |  -.0636412   .1307484    -0.49   0.626    -.3199034    .1926211
intensity_l~l |  -.2984711   .1646741    -1.81   0.070    -.6212264    .0242842
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0115285   .0098719    -1.17   0.243    -.0308771    .0078201
 vdem_rescale |  -.0174758   .0161398    -1.08   0.279    -.0491093    .0141577
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0015888   .0030242    -0.53   0.599    -.0075162    .0043385
 active_dyads |  -.8243165   .0997213    -8.27   0.000    -1.019767   -.6288664
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_ethnic_ideology incomp_rel_aff incomp_ethnic_
> id rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale
>  vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog stra
> ta(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          489             Number of obs    =       2,463
No. of failures      =          414
Time at risk         =  3280.596436
                                                Wald chi2(14)    =      128.86
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1757.2714             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.3903226   .1245968    -3.13   0.002    -.6345279   -.1461174
 Theological  |  -.8965215   .2186096    -4.10   0.000    -1.324988   -.4680546
        Both  |  -.5975135   .1864235    -3.21   0.001    -.9628968   -.2321303
              |
incomp_ethn~y |   .2765938    .161629     1.71   0.087    -.0401931    .5933808
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0398765    .113997    -0.35   0.726    -.2633065    .1835535
incomp_ethn~d |  -.5141456   .1642873    -3.13   0.002    -.8361427   -.1921484
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2229133   .2482127    -0.90   0.369    -.7094012    .2635746
  incomp_terr |  -.0220639   .1276759    -0.17   0.863     -.272304    .2281762
intensity_l~l |   -.251248   .1666635    -1.51   0.132    -.5779024    .0754064
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0178398    .010025    -1.78   0.075    -.0374885    .0018089
 vdem_rescale |  -.0238614   .0161062    -1.48   0.138    -.0554289    .0077062
vdem_rescal~q |   .0002425   .0030815     0.08   0.937     -.005797     .006282
 active_dyads |  -.8356322   .0987262    -8.46   0.000    -1.029132   -.6421323
post_cold_war |   .4628321   .1238804     3.74   0.000     .2200311    .7056332
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_ethnic_ideology c.incomp_re
> l_aff c.incomp_ethnic_id) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level si
> de_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) n
> olog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          489             Number of obs    =       2,463
No. of failures      =          414
Time at risk         =  3280.596436
                                                Wald chi2(20)    =      152.97
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1744.3458             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -.2717934   .2642874    -1.03   0.304    -.7897872    .2462004
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.6577344   .1901182    -3.46   0.001    -1.030359   -.2851094
 Theological  |   .1479202    .675318     0.22   0.827    -1.175679    1.471519
        Both  |  -.1745031   .2934973    -0.59   0.552    -.7497471     .400741
              |
incomp_ethn~y |    .101924   .2596828     0.39   0.695    -.4070449    .6108929
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1087287   .1739074    -0.63   0.532     -.449581    .2321236
incomp_ethn~d |  -.8620913   .2472325    -3.49   0.000    -1.346658   -.3775246
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |   .4231638   .2393748     1.77   0.077    -.0460022    .8923299
           1 #|
 Theological  |  -.9711002   .7053711    -1.38   0.169    -2.353602    .4114018
      1#Both  |  -.7206708   .4417143    -1.63   0.103    -1.586415    .1450732
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ethn~y |
           1  |   .2012146   .3512602     0.57   0.567    -.4872427     .889672
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |    .191352   .2291978     0.83   0.404    -.2578675    .6405715
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ethn~d |
           1  |   .6290786   .3551934     1.77   0.077    -.0670876    1.325245
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3607497   .2607836    -1.38   0.167    -.8718762    .1503767
  incomp_terr |   .0610958   .1328165     0.46   0.646    -.1992197    .3214113
intensity_l~l |   -.277466   .1702944    -1.63   0.103    -.6112369    .0563048
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0189394   .0098102    -1.93   0.054    -.0381671    .0002883
 vdem_rescale |   -.025238    .016567    -1.52   0.128    -.0577087    .0072326
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0002058   .0030919    -0.07   0.947    -.0062659    .0058543
 active_dyads |  -.8593733   .0994123    -8.64   0.000    -1.054218   -.6645288
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *********
. * Table A3-B. “Risk” of Armed Conflict Termination – Monadic, 1950-2017, ACD2E
> PR Data *
. ******************************************************************************
> *********
. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 reb_id_ethnic reb_ideology_ethnic rebel_ext_mil
> _support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq
>  active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          489             Number of obs    =       2,463
No. of failures      =          414
Time at risk         =  3280.596436
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =       98.35
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1764.3615             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.5811095   .1133344    -5.13   0.000    -.8032409   -.3589781
    rel_aff01 |    .339789   .1790832     1.90   0.058    -.0112076    .6907857
reb_id_ethnic |  -.2931376   .1391817    -2.11   0.035    -.5659286   -.0203466
reb_ideolog~c |   .0434398   .1196351     0.36   0.717    -.1910407    .2779203
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1344711   .2218289    -0.61   0.544    -.5692478    .3003055
  incomp_terr |  -.2781291   .1266209    -2.20   0.028    -.5263016   -.0299567
intensity_l~l |  -.3178989   .1649642    -1.93   0.054    -.6412228    .0054249
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.008802   .0099113    -0.89   0.374    -.0282278    .0106238
 vdem_rescale |  -.0318604    .015706    -2.03   0.043    -.0626435   -.0010772
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0025302   .0027758    -0.91   0.362    -.0079706    .0029103
 active_dyads |  -.8273524   .0972746    -8.51   0.000    -1.018007   -.6366977
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 reb_id_ethnic reb_ideology_ethnic rebel_ext_mil
> _support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq
>  active_dyads post_cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          489             Number of obs    =       2,463
No. of failures      =          414
Time at risk         =  3280.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      119.19
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1757.8288             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.5937764   .1120142    -5.30   0.000    -.8133201   -.3742327
    rel_aff01 |   .3153479   .1782506     1.77   0.077    -.0340169    .6647127
reb_id_ethnic |  -.2981608   .1416434    -2.11   0.035    -.5757768   -.0205447
reb_ideolog~c |   .0052425   .1205547     0.04   0.965    -.2310404    .2415255
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2076331   .2288652    -0.91   0.364    -.6562006    .2409344
  incomp_terr |   -.206248   .1240454    -1.66   0.096    -.4493724    .0368765
intensity_l~l |  -.2839392   .1661722    -1.71   0.088    -.6096307    .0417523
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0172114   .0101088    -1.70   0.089    -.0370242    .0026014
 vdem_rescale |   -.032409   .0149613    -2.17   0.030    -.0617327   -.0030853
vdem_rescal~q |   3.08e-06   .0028113     0.00   0.999     -.005507    .0055132
 active_dyads |  -.8515637    .096765    -8.80   0.000     -1.04122   -.6619077
post_cold_war |   .4255659   .1189004     3.58   0.000     .1925255    .6586063
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_ideology c.rel_aff01 c.reb_id_ethnic c.reb_ideol
> ogy_ethnic) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vde
> m_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep
> _no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          489             Number of obs    =       2,463
No. of failures      =          414
Time at risk         =  3280.596436
                                                Wald chi2(16)    =      152.97
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1747.3743             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .2961045   .3951213     0.75   0.454    -.4783191    1.070528
claim_ideol~y |  -.6316368    .176647    -3.58   0.000    -.9778585    -.285415
    rel_aff01 |   .5137515     .22243     2.31   0.021     .0777967    .9497064
reb_id_ethnic |  -.3252682   .1963322    -1.66   0.098    -.7100722    .0595358
reb_ideolog~c |  -.5406881   .1938417    -2.79   0.005    -.9206109   -.1607653
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.0457657   .2163101    -0.21   0.832    -.4697258    .3781943
              |
post_cold_war#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |  -.3998638   .3448665    -1.16   0.246     -1.07579    .2760621
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
reb_id_ethnic |
           1  |   .0486747   .2904166     0.17   0.867    -.5205315    .6178808
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
reb_ideolog~c |
           1  |   .9355796   .2546879     3.67   0.000     .4364004    1.434759
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3164996   .2213297    -1.43   0.153    -.7502978    .1172987
  incomp_terr |  -.1789871    .126944    -1.41   0.159    -.4277928    .0698187
intensity_l~l |  -.2635702   .1673439    -1.58   0.115    -.5915583    .0644178
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0161612   .0097062    -1.67   0.096     -.035185    .0028625
 vdem_rescale |  -.0343466   .0148291    -2.32   0.021    -.0634112    -.005282
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0002225   .0028499    -0.08   0.938    -.0058081    .0053631
 active_dyads |  -.8750537   .0975366    -8.97   0.000    -1.066222   -.6838855
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =      114.58
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1763.1269             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.7610558   .1380086    -5.51   0.000    -1.031548   -.4905638
 claim_libdem |  -.4402907     .15733    -2.80   0.005    -.7486518   -.1319296
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .4048742   .1422312     2.85   0.004     .1261062    .6836423
Christian-~l  |   .2150419    .342843     0.63   0.531    -.4569182    .8870019
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .0772299   .1430441     0.54   0.589    -.2031314    .3575912
Muslim-The~l  |  -.4586832   .1945739    -2.36   0.018    -.8400411   -.0773253
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2526366   .2415014    -1.05   0.296    -.7259708    .2206975
  incomp_terr |  -.2825357   .1161563    -2.43   0.015    -.5101978   -.0548735
intensity_l~l |  -.3821835   .1721317    -2.22   0.026    -.7195555   -.0448115
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0115177   .0103128    -1.12   0.264    -.0317304    .0086951
 vdem_rescale |  -.0273463   .0145396    -1.88   0.060    -.0558434    .0011509
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0030302    .002581    -1.17   0.240    -.0080889    .0020284
 active_dyads |  -.8360816    .099016    -8.44   0.000    -1.030149   -.6420138
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads post_cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(14)    =      132.34
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1757.4431             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.6482625   .1416353    -4.58   0.000    -.9258626   -.3706623
 claim_libdem |  -.4611113   .1544588    -2.99   0.003     -.763845   -.1583776
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .4010611   .1393505     2.88   0.004     .1279392     .674183
Christian-~l  |   .0990057    .331668     0.30   0.765    -.5510517     .749063
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .0348835   .1422295     0.25   0.806    -.2438811    .3136482
Muslim-The~l  |  -.6077764   .2031389    -2.99   0.003    -1.005921   -.2096314
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3596656   .2533262    -1.42   0.156    -.8561758    .1368445
  incomp_terr |  -.2212757   .1153701    -1.92   0.055    -.4473971    .0048456
intensity_l~l |  -.3553711   .1735705    -2.05   0.041     -.695563   -.0151791
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0187972   .0104391    -1.80   0.072    -.0392575    .0016631
 vdem_rescale |  -.0292185   .0137267    -2.13   0.033    -.0561225   -.0023146
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0007035   .0026476    -0.27   0.790    -.0058928    .0044858
 active_dyads |  -.8502998   .0983415    -8.65   0.000    -1.043046   -.6575541
post_cold_war |   .4219518   .1253885     3.37   0.001     .1761949    .6677086
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_communist c.claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_
> claim_type) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vde
> m_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep
> _no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(20)    =      149.31
Log pseudolikelihood =    -1751.903             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .7180281   .2456562     2.92   0.003     .2365507    1.199505
claim_commu~t |  -.6347868   .1981711    -3.20   0.001    -1.023195   -.2463785
 claim_libdem |  -.5505116   .2691152    -2.05   0.041    -1.077968   -.0230555
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .5080259    .217541     2.34   0.020     .0816534    .9343984
Christian-~l  |   .5047962   .8861505     0.57   0.569    -1.232027    2.241619
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .2355592   .2092053     1.13   0.260    -.1744757     .645594
Muslim-The~l  |   .4693194   .3285956     1.43   0.153    -.1747162    1.113355
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |  -.0205775   .2644803    -0.08   0.938    -.5389493    .4977942
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |   .1349569   .3235918     0.42   0.677    -.4992714    .7691852
              |
post_cold_war#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |  -.2598766   .2972668    -0.87   0.382    -.8425088    .3227556
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |  -.6189076   .8602856    -0.72   0.472    -2.305036    1.067221
              |
post_cold_war#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.4123809   .3011376    -1.37   0.171      -1.0026     .177838
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -1.435927    .429793    -3.34   0.001    -2.278306   -.5935486
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3475929   .2643613    -1.31   0.189    -.8657315    .1705456
  incomp_terr |  -.2245212    .118211    -1.90   0.058    -.4562105    .0071681
intensity_l~l |  -.3577555   .1770062    -2.02   0.043    -.7046813   -.0108297
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0168114   .0105839    -1.59   0.112    -.0375555    .0039327
 vdem_rescale |  -.0312306    .014469    -2.16   0.031    -.0595894   -.0028719
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0014031   .0027868    -0.50   0.615    -.0068651    .0040589
 active_dyads |  -.8493477   .0972355    -8.73   0.000    -1.039926   -.6587697
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. **************************
. * SET DATA AS PANEL DATA *
. **************************
. 
. xtset dyad_id_rev year
       panel variable:  dyad_id_rev (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2017, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *****************************
. * Table A4-B. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Any Ideological Incompatibi
> lity - Dyadic, ACD2EPR Data *
. ******************************************************************************
> *****************************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 incomp_ideology_all incomp_ethnic_ideology incomp_re
> l_aff incomp_ethnic_id rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_res
> cale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
>  nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     432.02
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -830.4989              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .6443622   .4351998     1.48   0.139    -.2086138    1.497338
incomp_ethn~y |   .5417827   .5449692     0.99   0.320    -.5263373    1.609903
incomp_rel_~f |   .5614657   .3649876     1.54   0.124     -.153897    1.276828
incomp_ethn~d |   .3559511   .5356137     0.66   0.506    -.6938324    1.405735
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.496528   .7981745     3.13   0.002      .932135    4.060921
  incomp_terr |  -1.490522   .5476664    -2.72   0.006    -2.563928   -.4171157
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0618027   .0328319    -1.88   0.060     -.126152    .0025466
 vdem_rescale |  -.0274217   .0575637    -0.48   0.634    -.1402446    .0854011
vdem_rescal~q |   .0079811   .0085379     0.93   0.350    -.0087529     .024715
 active_dyads |   .1099432   .1315733     0.84   0.403    -.1479357    .3678221
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.190362   1.312674    -0.91   0.365    -3.763155    1.382431
        1952  |  -1.461832   1.448335    -1.01   0.313    -4.300517    1.376854
        1953  |   .1988683   1.442719     0.14   0.890     -2.62881    3.026547
        1954  |  -2.968911   1.576221    -1.88   0.060    -6.058248    .1204262
        1955  |  -1.240816     2.1496    -0.58   0.564    -5.453954    2.972322
        1956  |  -2.262969    2.29775    -0.98   0.325    -6.766476    2.240539
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.450543   1.879664    -0.77   0.440    -5.134616     2.23353
        1959  |   -2.23123   1.990249    -1.12   0.262    -6.132047    1.669586
        1960  |  -3.035144   1.657456    -1.83   0.067    -6.283698    .2134105
        1961  |  -.8486175   1.566948    -0.54   0.588     -3.91978    2.222545
        1962  |  -.3004437    1.58526    -0.19   0.850    -3.407496    2.806609
        1963  |  -.3129891   1.575777    -0.20   0.843    -3.401455    2.775477
        1964  |  -1.134591   1.406715    -0.81   0.420    -3.891701     1.62252
        1965  |  -1.344198   1.437216    -0.94   0.350    -4.161089    1.472692
        1966  |  -1.166019   1.376524    -0.85   0.397    -3.863957     1.53192
        1967  |   -1.25815   1.371686    -0.92   0.359    -3.946605    1.430305
        1968  |  -1.526153   1.283401    -1.19   0.234    -4.041572    .9892665
        1969  |  -1.205946   1.333697    -0.90   0.366    -3.819945    1.408052
        1970  |  -1.336253   1.330543    -1.00   0.315    -3.944069    1.271563
        1971  |  -.3445535   1.172237    -0.29   0.769    -2.642095    1.952988
        1972  |  -2.094506   1.377881    -1.52   0.128    -4.795104    .6060919
        1973  |  -2.867432   1.573042    -1.82   0.068    -5.950537    .2156726
        1974  |  -1.126501   1.420163    -0.79   0.428    -3.909969    1.656967
        1975  |  -.9500802   1.352886    -0.70   0.483    -3.601689    1.701528
        1976  |  -.7011967   1.329287    -0.53   0.598    -3.306552    1.904159
        1977  |  -.9536011   1.320675    -0.72   0.470    -3.542076    1.634874
        1978  |   .3179179   1.363733     0.23   0.816     -2.35495    2.990786
        1979  |  -1.366566   1.339555    -1.02   0.308    -3.992045    1.258914
        1980  |  -1.038145   1.330032    -0.78   0.435    -3.644961     1.56867
        1981  |  -1.103087   1.374412    -0.80   0.422    -3.796884     1.59071
        1982  |  -.5775113   1.312627    -0.44   0.660    -3.150214    1.995191
        1983  |  -.7594207   1.333887    -0.57   0.569    -3.373791     1.85495
        1984  |  -.5265609   1.287106    -0.41   0.682    -3.049243    1.996121
        1985  |  -.8097218   1.314924    -0.62   0.538    -3.386925    1.767482
        1986  |  -1.286139     1.3461    -0.96   0.339    -3.924447    1.352169
        1987  |  -1.027114   1.334873    -0.77   0.442    -3.643416    1.589189
        1988  |   -.269132    1.30386    -0.21   0.836    -2.824651    2.286387
        1989  |  -1.871175   1.333479    -1.40   0.161    -4.484746    .7423956
        1990  |  -1.581526   1.374544    -1.15   0.250    -4.275583    1.112531
        1991  |  -1.791997   1.366637    -1.31   0.190    -4.470556     .886562
        1992  |  -.9936436   1.384887    -0.72   0.473    -3.707972    1.720685
        1993  |  -1.717321   1.404619    -1.22   0.221    -4.470324    1.035682
        1994  |  -1.518485   1.471621    -1.03   0.302    -4.402808    1.365838
        1995  |  -1.643064   1.448141    -1.13   0.257    -4.481368    1.195239
        1996  |  -1.844603   1.424721    -1.29   0.195    -4.637004    .9477984
        1997  |     -1.885   1.403779    -1.34   0.179    -4.636356    .8663568
        1998  |  -.9804677   1.387128    -0.71   0.480    -3.699188    1.738253
        1999  |  -1.013225   1.393294    -0.73   0.467    -3.744032    1.717582
        2000  |  -1.699597   1.395692    -1.22   0.223    -4.435104     1.03591
        2001  |  -2.554405   1.377471    -1.85   0.064    -5.254199    .1453889
        2002  |  -1.440397    1.48403    -0.97   0.332    -4.349043    1.468249
        2003  |  -2.484932   1.696099    -1.47   0.143    -5.809225    .8393604
        2004  |  -1.267966   1.540857    -0.82   0.411    -4.287991    1.752058
        2005  |    -2.1237   1.581652    -1.34   0.179    -5.223681    .9762813
        2006  |  -3.395225    1.42469    -2.38   0.017    -6.187565   -.6028839
        2007  |   -3.00699   1.523462    -1.97   0.048    -5.992921    -.021058
        2008  |  -2.866353   1.388396    -2.06   0.039    -5.587559    -.145147
        2009  |    -2.5865   1.416976    -1.83   0.068    -5.363722    .1907213
        2010  |  -3.097497   1.402993    -2.21   0.027    -5.847313   -.3476805
        2011  |  -2.660166   1.480493    -1.80   0.072     -5.56188    .2415474
        2012  |  -3.021325   1.597167    -1.89   0.059    -6.151715    .1090642
        2013  |  -2.531108   1.387267    -1.82   0.068    -5.250102    .1878864
        2014  |  -1.499873   1.440531    -1.04   0.298    -4.323262    1.323516
        2015  |  -2.263537   1.409714    -1.61   0.108    -5.026525    .4994515
        2016  |  -3.220997   1.534848    -2.10   0.036    -6.229244   -.2127511
        2017  |  -2.686691   1.478462    -1.82   0.069    -5.584424    .2110407
              |
        _cons |  -1.951343   1.388609    -1.41   0.160    -4.672967    .7702817
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.024197   .1915134                      1.648838    2.399556
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.751369   .2634619                      2.280555    3.319381
          rho |   .6970627   .0404412                      .6125373    .7700704
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 incomp_ideology_all incomp_ethnic_ideology incomp_re
> l_aff incomp_ethnic_id rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_res
> cale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==
> 0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     432.02
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -830.4989              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .6443622   .4351998     1.48   0.139    -.2086138    1.497338
incomp_ethn~y |   .5417827   .5449692     0.99   0.320    -.5263373    1.609903
incomp_rel_~f |   .5614657   .3649876     1.54   0.124     -.153897    1.276828
incomp_ethn~d |   .3559511   .5356137     0.66   0.506    -.6938324    1.405735
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.496528   .7981745     3.13   0.002      .932135    4.060921
  incomp_terr |  -1.490522   .5476664    -2.72   0.006    -2.563928   -.4171157
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0618027   .0328319    -1.88   0.060     -.126152    .0025466
 vdem_rescale |  -.0274217   .0575637    -0.48   0.634    -.1402446    .0854011
vdem_rescal~q |   .0079811   .0085379     0.93   0.350    -.0087529     .024715
 active_dyads |   .1099432   .1315733     0.84   0.403    -.1479357    .3678221
post_cold_war |  -2.686691   1.478462    -1.82   0.069    -5.584424    .2110407
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.190362   1.312674    -0.91   0.365    -3.763155    1.382431
        1952  |  -1.461832   1.448335    -1.01   0.313    -4.300517    1.376854
        1953  |   .1988683   1.442719     0.14   0.890     -2.62881    3.026547
        1954  |  -2.968911   1.576221    -1.88   0.060    -6.058248    .1204262
        1955  |  -1.240816     2.1496    -0.58   0.564    -5.453954    2.972322
        1956  |  -2.262969    2.29775    -0.98   0.325    -6.766476    2.240539
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.450543   1.879664    -0.77   0.440    -5.134616     2.23353
        1959  |   -2.23123   1.990249    -1.12   0.262    -6.132047    1.669586
        1960  |  -3.035144   1.657456    -1.83   0.067    -6.283698    .2134105
        1961  |  -.8486175   1.566948    -0.54   0.588     -3.91978    2.222545
        1962  |  -.3004437    1.58526    -0.19   0.850    -3.407496    2.806609
        1963  |  -.3129891   1.575777    -0.20   0.843    -3.401455    2.775477
        1964  |  -1.134591   1.406715    -0.81   0.420    -3.891701     1.62252
        1965  |  -1.344198   1.437216    -0.94   0.350    -4.161089    1.472692
        1966  |  -1.166019   1.376524    -0.85   0.397    -3.863957     1.53192
        1967  |   -1.25815   1.371686    -0.92   0.359    -3.946605    1.430305
        1968  |  -1.526153   1.283401    -1.19   0.234    -4.041572    .9892665
        1969  |  -1.205946   1.333697    -0.90   0.366    -3.819945    1.408052
        1970  |  -1.336253   1.330543    -1.00   0.315    -3.944069    1.271563
        1971  |  -.3445535   1.172237    -0.29   0.769    -2.642095    1.952988
        1972  |  -2.094506   1.377881    -1.52   0.128    -4.795104    .6060919
        1973  |  -2.867432   1.573042    -1.82   0.068    -5.950537    .2156726
        1974  |  -1.126501   1.420163    -0.79   0.428    -3.909969    1.656967
        1975  |  -.9500802   1.352886    -0.70   0.483    -3.601689    1.701528
        1976  |  -.7011967   1.329287    -0.53   0.598    -3.306552    1.904159
        1977  |  -.9536011   1.320675    -0.72   0.470    -3.542076    1.634874
        1978  |   .3179179   1.363733     0.23   0.816     -2.35495    2.990786
        1979  |  -1.366566   1.339555    -1.02   0.308    -3.992045    1.258914
        1980  |  -1.038145   1.330032    -0.78   0.435    -3.644961     1.56867
        1981  |  -1.103087   1.374412    -0.80   0.422    -3.796884     1.59071
        1982  |  -.5775113   1.312627    -0.44   0.660    -3.150214    1.995191
        1983  |  -.7594207   1.333887    -0.57   0.569    -3.373791     1.85495
        1984  |  -.5265609   1.287106    -0.41   0.682    -3.049243    1.996121
        1985  |  -.8097218   1.314924    -0.62   0.538    -3.386925    1.767482
        1986  |  -1.286139     1.3461    -0.96   0.339    -3.924447    1.352169
        1987  |  -1.027114   1.334873    -0.77   0.442    -3.643416    1.589189
        1988  |   -.269132    1.30386    -0.21   0.836    -2.824651    2.286387
        1989  |  -1.871175   1.333479    -1.40   0.161    -4.484746    .7423956
        1990  |  -1.581526   1.374544    -1.15   0.250    -4.275583    1.112531
        1991  |   .8946946   .9429839     0.95   0.343    -.9535199    2.742909
        1992  |   1.693048   .9503291     1.78   0.075    -.1695629    3.555659
        1993  |   .9693703   1.013636     0.96   0.339     -1.01732     2.95606
        1994  |   1.168207    1.08785     1.07   0.283    -.9639407    3.300354
        1995  |   1.043627   1.047045     1.00   0.319    -1.008543    3.095797
        1996  |   .8420887   1.036887     0.81   0.417    -1.190173     2.87435
        1997  |   .8016918   .9751306     0.82   0.411    -1.109529    2.712913
        1998  |   1.706224   .9530021     1.79   0.073    -.1616261    3.574074
        1999  |   1.673466    .950178     1.76   0.078    -.1888482    3.535781
        2000  |   .9870948   .9946915     0.99   0.321    -.9624647    2.936654
        2001  |   .1322866   .9320891     0.14   0.887    -1.694574    1.959148
        2002  |   1.246294   1.077302     1.16   0.247    -.8651787    3.357767
        2003  |   .2017591   1.437952     0.14   0.888    -2.616575    3.020093
        2004  |   1.418725   1.238301     1.15   0.252    -1.008299     3.84575
        2005  |   .5629915    1.16618     0.48   0.629     -1.72268    2.848663
        2006  |  -.7085331   .8251051    -0.86   0.390    -2.325709    .9086432
        2007  |  -.3202981   .8124085    -0.39   0.693    -1.912589    1.271993
        2008  |  -.1796614    .891051    -0.20   0.840    -1.926089    1.566766
        2009  |    .100191   .9938439     0.10   0.920    -1.847707    2.048089
        2010  |  -.4108052   .9348575    -0.44   0.660    -2.243092    1.421482
        2011  |    .026525   1.074661     0.02   0.980    -2.079771    2.132821
        2012  |  -.3346338   1.244584    -0.27   0.788    -2.773973    2.104705
        2013  |   .1555839    .793652     0.20   0.845    -1.399945    1.711113
        2014  |   1.186818   .8269411     1.44   0.151    -.4339565    2.807593
        2015  |   .4231548   .8118368     0.52   0.602    -1.168016    2.014326
        2016  |  -.5343059   .9344552    -0.57   0.567    -2.365804    1.297193
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.951343   1.388609    -1.41   0.160    -4.672967    .7702817
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.024197   .1915134                      1.648838    2.399556
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.751369   .2634619                      2.280555    3.319381
          rho |   .6970627   .0404412                      .6125373    .7700704
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(c.incomp_ideology_all incomp_ethnic_
> ideology c.incomp_rel_aff c.incomp_ethnic_id) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_ter
> r side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_uc
> dp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(80)     =     479.52
Log pseudolikelihood  = -824.96235              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -2.909118   1.776554    -1.64   0.102    -6.391099    .5728637
incomp_ideo~l |   .5588852   .6017125     0.93   0.353    -.6204495     1.73822
1.incomp_et~y |  -.1889233    .726729    -0.26   0.795    -1.613286    1.235439
incomp_rel_~f |   .3662351   .5039148     0.73   0.467    -.6214198     1.35389
incomp_ethn~d |   1.227591   .7153054     1.72   0.086    -.1743815    2.629564
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |   .4483022   .6541046     0.69   0.493    -.8337193    1.730324
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ethn~y |
         1 1  |   1.691909   .8881712     1.90   0.057    -.0488748    3.432692
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .3129038   .7140116     0.44   0.661    -1.086533    1.712341
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ethn~d |
           1  |  -2.008568   .9755933    -2.06   0.040    -3.920696   -.0964401
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.479177   .7996636     3.10   0.002     .9118653    4.046489
  incomp_terr |  -1.497759   .5556752    -2.70   0.007    -2.586862   -.4086555
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0536379   .0348419    -1.54   0.124    -.1219268     .014651
 vdem_rescale |  -.0634873   .0533051    -1.19   0.234    -.1679634    .0409887
vdem_rescal~q |   .0055633   .0083737     0.66   0.506    -.0108489    .0219755
 active_dyads |   .0624737   .1248345     0.50   0.617    -.1821974    .3071448
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.217154   1.322613    -0.92   0.357    -3.809428    1.375119
        1952  |  -1.414524   1.461372    -0.97   0.333    -4.278761    1.449713
        1953  |   .2478377    1.43819     0.17   0.863    -2.570962    3.066638
        1954  |  -2.950838   1.578485    -1.87   0.062    -6.044612    .1429348
        1955  |  -1.178377   2.186627    -0.54   0.590    -5.464087    3.107334
        1956  |  -2.233798   2.303049    -0.97   0.332    -6.747692    2.280096
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.404114   1.901977    -0.74   0.460    -5.131921    2.323693
        1959  |  -2.218759    2.00797    -1.10   0.269    -6.154307    1.716789
        1960  |  -3.108234   1.668791    -1.86   0.063    -6.379003     .162536
        1961  |  -.9552961   1.587847    -0.60   0.547    -4.067419    2.156827
        1962  |  -.4530629   1.618067    -0.28   0.779    -3.624417    2.718291
        1963  |   -.488323    1.63941    -0.30   0.766    -3.701508    2.724862
        1964  |  -1.360719   1.449373    -0.94   0.348    -4.201439    1.480001
        1965  |  -1.573665   1.479895    -1.06   0.288    -4.474205    1.326876
        1966  |  -1.376848   1.418892    -0.97   0.332    -4.157825    1.404128
        1967  |  -1.474005   1.403625    -1.05   0.294    -4.225059    1.277048
        1968  |  -1.756375   1.297372    -1.35   0.176    -4.299177    .7864272
        1969  |  -1.427808    1.35197    -1.06   0.291     -4.07762    1.222005
        1970  |  -1.555819   1.344995    -1.16   0.247    -4.191961    1.080324
        1971  |  -.5616993   1.201409    -0.47   0.640    -2.916417    1.793018
        1972  |  -2.345909   1.389905    -1.69   0.091    -5.070072    .3782548
        1973  |  -3.085598   1.554257    -1.99   0.047    -6.131885   -.0393096
        1974  |  -1.338172   1.440577    -0.93   0.353     -4.16165    1.485307
        1975  |  -1.157835   1.381863    -0.84   0.402    -3.866236    1.550566
        1976  |  -.9020228   1.357277    -0.66   0.506    -3.562237    1.758192
        1977  |  -1.182322   1.353606    -0.87   0.382    -3.835342    1.470698
        1978  |   .1042587   1.397811     0.07   0.941      -2.6354    2.843917
        1979  |  -1.641565   1.371796    -1.20   0.231    -4.330237    1.047106
        1980  |  -1.311962   1.360401    -0.96   0.335    -3.978299    1.354375
        1981  |   -1.37844   1.423237    -0.97   0.333    -4.167934    1.411054
        1982  |  -.8469397    1.36043    -0.62   0.534    -3.513333    1.819454
        1983  |  -1.049318   1.379852    -0.76   0.447    -3.753778    1.655141
        1984  |   -.791796   1.331213    -0.59   0.552    -3.400926    1.817334
        1985  |  -1.109521   1.363166    -0.81   0.416    -3.781278    1.562236
        1986  |  -1.597548   1.403988    -1.14   0.255    -4.349313    1.154218
        1987  |  -1.304665    1.39396    -0.94   0.349    -4.036775    1.427446
        1988  |  -.5015946     1.3464    -0.37   0.709    -3.140491    2.137302
        1989  |   -2.28113   1.388092    -1.64   0.100     -5.00174    .4394801
        1990  |  -1.883664   1.450067    -1.30   0.194    -4.725742     .958415
        1991  |   1.108786   .9649833     1.15   0.251     -.782546    3.000119
        1992  |   1.921769    .981595     1.96   0.050    -.0021222    3.845659
        1993  |   1.184603    1.03486     1.14   0.252    -.8436842    3.212891
        1994  |   1.410114    1.10859     1.27   0.203    -.7626828    3.582911
        1995  |   1.313005   1.064792     1.23   0.218    -.7739486    3.399958
        1996  |   1.102505   1.052238     1.05   0.295    -.9598443    3.164854
        1997  |   .9881874   1.007006     0.98   0.326    -.9855074    2.961882
        1998  |   1.907663   .9813762     1.94   0.052    -.0157994    3.831125
        1999  |   1.852182   .9855905     1.88   0.060    -.0795396    3.783904
        2000  |   1.153523   1.017843     1.13   0.257    -.8414136    3.148459
        2001  |   .2937338   .9745156     0.30   0.763    -1.616282    2.203749
        2002  |   1.396142   1.095728     1.27   0.203    -.7514445    3.543729
        2003  |   .4004477   1.435709     0.28   0.780    -2.413491    3.214386
        2004  |   1.509683   1.235029     1.22   0.222    -.9109298    3.930295
        2005  |   .6013176   1.204759     0.50   0.618    -1.759967    2.962602
        2006  |  -.6427984    .828039    -0.78   0.438    -2.265725    .9801282
        2007  |  -.2588296   .8188716    -0.32   0.752    -1.863788    1.346129
        2008  |  -.0956179   .8924764    -0.11   0.915    -1.844839    1.653604
        2009  |   .1577528   1.023382     0.15   0.877    -1.848038    2.163544
        2010  |  -.3247012   .9548373    -0.34   0.734    -2.196148    1.546746
        2011  |   .0551415   1.095912     0.05   0.960    -2.092806    2.203089
        2012  |  -.3320221   1.263904    -0.26   0.793    -2.809229    2.145184
        2013  |   .2067948   .8103066     0.26   0.799    -1.381377    1.794966
        2014  |   1.216183   .8485803     1.43   0.152    -.4470043    2.879369
        2015  |    .430222   .8193055     0.53   0.600    -1.175587    2.036031
        2016  |  -.5372071   .9351511    -0.57   0.566     -2.37007    1.295655
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -2.082848    1.53729    -1.35   0.175    -5.095881    .9301849
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.083502   .2015228                      1.688524    2.478479
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.834175   .2855754                      2.326261    3.452987
          rho |   .7094376   .0415411                      .6219132     .783746
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best incomp_ideology_all incomp_ethnic_ideology incomp_rel_aff inco
> mp_ethnic_id rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_
> rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_
> data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =   -9089774  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5432113.2  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4817481.3  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2431525.4  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1829724.6  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -516666.53  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -423762.27  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -408280.53  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -408219.97  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -408219.96  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -333076.23  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6325.0004  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6193.5389  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6103.2331  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6081.3713  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -6019.032  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6017.0656  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6017.0584  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -6017.0584  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -93431.044  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -12459.771  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -10204.72  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7802.6646  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6530.0449  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -6371.885  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5840.1967  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5759.6475  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5747.6211  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5747.4766  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5747.4766  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        829
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        180

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.6
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(38)     =      87.30
Log likelihood  = -5747.4766                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.0585208   .1129274    -0.52   0.604    -.2798544    .1628127
incomp_ethn~y |   .1898456    .151323     1.25   0.210    -.1067421    .4864334
incomp_rel_~f |   .0623899   .1011449     0.62   0.537    -.1358505    .2606303
incomp_ethn~d |  -.2440039   .1362206    -1.79   0.073    -.5109913    .0229834
rebel_ext_m~t |   .5236145   .2723089     1.92   0.054    -.0101012     1.05733
  incomp_terr |  -.2173385   .1464111    -1.48   0.138    -.5042989    .0696219
 side_a_lnGDP |    -.00313   .0122271    -0.26   0.798    -.0270947    .0208347
 vdem_rescale |   .0117875   .0123131     0.96   0.338    -.0123457    .0359207
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0002671   .0023241    -0.11   0.908    -.0048223     .004288
     rcd_loot |  -.0013544   .0873953    -0.02   0.988    -.1726462    .1699373
    rcd_crime |   .3956967   .0955517     4.14   0.000     .2084187    .5829746
 active_dyads |  -.0017339    .040949    -0.04   0.966    -.0819924    .0785246
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000618   .0000112     5.53   0.000     .0000399    .0000837
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2095393   .1798546    -1.17   0.244    -.5620478    .1429692
        1992  |   .1762893   .1759005     1.00   0.316    -.1684692    .5210479
        1993  |  -.0250083    .180575    -0.14   0.890    -.3789288    .3289121
        1994  |    .015112   .1796046     0.08   0.933    -.3369066    .3671306
        1995  |  -.1456032   .1828727    -0.80   0.426    -.5040271    .2128207
        1996  |   .0382912   .1904074     0.20   0.841    -.3349004    .4114829
        1997  |  -.0880197   .1915958    -0.46   0.646    -.4635405    .2875011
        1998  |  -.0458254   .1852564    -0.25   0.805    -.4089213    .3172706
        1999  |  -.0292563   .1853476    -0.16   0.875     -.392531    .3340183
        2000  |  -.0671605   .1846261    -0.36   0.716     -.429021    .2947001
        2001  |   -.294786   .1854815    -1.59   0.112    -.6583232    .0687511
        2002  |   .0182845   .1817721     0.10   0.920    -.3379823    .3745513
        2003  |  -.2581611   .1948792    -1.32   0.185    -.6401174    .1237951
        2004  |  -.1276431   .1946714    -0.66   0.512     -.509192    .2539058
        2005  |  -.1523446    .201166    -0.76   0.449    -.5466227    .2419335
        2006  |  -.2366018   .1942964    -1.22   0.223    -.6174158    .1442122
        2007  |  -.0857564   .1959389    -0.44   0.662    -.4697897    .2982769
        2008  |  -.0870379   .1924791    -0.45   0.651    -.4642899    .2902142
        2009  |  -.0807906    .190653    -0.42   0.672    -.4544636    .2928823
        2010  |  -.2964988   .1986929    -1.49   0.136    -.6859298    .0929321
        2011  |  -.3906093   .2034848    -1.92   0.055    -.7894322    .0082136
        2012  |  -.2852545   .2131304    -1.34   0.181    -.7029826    .1324735
        2013  |  -.4213583   .2171099    -1.94   0.052    -.8468859    .0041693
        2014  |  -.1641971   .2048545    -0.80   0.423    -.5657045    .2373103
        2015  |  -.3941222   .2077829    -1.90   0.058    -.8013692    .0131247
              |
        _cons |   .4864138   .3510378     1.39   0.166    -.2016076    1.174435
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0742513   .1179245                     -.3053791    .1568765
        /ln_s |   4.519112   .2005732                      4.125995    4.912228
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9284383   .1094856                       .736844    1.169851
            s |   91.75405   18.40341                      61.92942    135.9419
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 539.16               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best incomp_ideology_all incomp_ethnic_ideology incomp_rel_aff inco
> mp_ethnic_id rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_
> rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_
> data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -112285.08  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6081.0351  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5244.9845  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4627.5261  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4411.8236  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4360.0339  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4280.7641  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4274.3487  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood =   -4274.34  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood =   -4274.34  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        768
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        119

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(38)     =      96.57
Log likelihood  =   -4274.34                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.0719175     .14123    -0.51   0.611    -.3487233    .2048883
incomp_ethn~y |   .2341334   .1901459     1.23   0.218    -.1385457    .6068126
incomp_rel_~f |   .1241749   .1183047     1.05   0.294    -.1076979    .3560478
incomp_ethn~d |  -.2993295   .1680219    -1.78   0.075    -.6286464    .0299874
rebel_ext_m~t |   .2866465   .3597581     0.80   0.426    -.4184663    .9917594
  incomp_terr |  -.1908601   .1858624    -1.03   0.304    -.5551437    .1734235
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0106218   .0157608     0.67   0.500    -.0202689    .0415125
 vdem_rescale |   .0377996   .0139873     2.70   0.007      .010385    .0652141
vdem_rescal~q |   .0015612   .0026686     0.59   0.559    -.0036691    .0067915
     rcd_loot |  -.0963508   .0967094    -1.00   0.319    -.2858977    .0931961
    rcd_crime |   .5079962   .1092345     4.65   0.000     .2939004     .722092
 active_dyads |   .0109975   .0455312     0.24   0.809    -.0782419    .1002369
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000514   .0000124     4.15   0.000     .0000271    .0000757
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2464066   .1836583    -1.34   0.180    -.6063702     .113557
        1992  |   .1349425   .1884082     0.72   0.474    -.2343308    .5042158
        1993  |  -.0819603   .1963232    -0.42   0.676    -.4667467     .302826
        1994  |  -.0802571   .1988392    -0.40   0.686    -.4699747    .3094605
        1995  |  -.2322897   .1979027    -1.17   0.240    -.6201718    .1555925
        1996  |  -.0565302   .2040577    -0.28   0.782    -.4564759    .3434155
        1997  |  -.2405182   .2073575    -1.16   0.246    -.6469314     .165895
        1998  |  -.2150816   .2030404    -1.06   0.289    -.6130335    .1828703
        1999  |  -.2189017   .2045239    -1.07   0.284    -.6197613    .1819578
        2000  |  -.2009299   .1997149    -1.01   0.314    -.5923639     .190504
        2001  |  -.4151553   .1988573    -2.09   0.037    -.8049084   -.0254022
        2002  |  -.1161295    .195068    -0.60   0.552    -.4984558    .2661968
        2003  |  -.3868799   .2078069    -1.86   0.063     -.794174    .0204141
        2004  |   -.256209   .2053672    -1.25   0.212    -.6587213    .1463033
        2005  |  -.3091899   .2117216    -1.46   0.144    -.7241566    .1057768
        2006  |  -.3683871   .2081735    -1.77   0.077    -.7763996    .0396254
        2007  |  -.2310007    .210458    -1.10   0.272    -.6434909    .1814894
        2008  |  -.2467255   .2117914    -1.16   0.244     -.661829    .1683779
        2009  |  -.1903607   .2090576    -0.91   0.363     -.600106    .2193846
        2010  |  -.4474938   .2173149    -2.06   0.039    -.8734231   -.0215645
        2011  |  -.5744649   .2255141    -2.55   0.011    -1.016464   -.1324653
        2012  |  -.5470639   .2319866    -2.36   0.018    -1.001749   -.0923784
        2013  |  -.6664696   .2374311    -2.81   0.005    -1.131826   -.2011131
        2014  |  -.3371502   .2235571    -1.51   0.132    -.7753142    .1010137
        2015  |  -.5950032   .2311516    -2.57   0.010    -1.048052   -.1419545
              |
        _cons |    .251219    .438193     0.57   0.566    -.6076235    1.110061
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ************************************
. * Table A5-B. Determinants of Conflict Intensity – Specific ideological Incomp
> atibilities – Dyadic, ACD2EPR Data *
. ******************************************************************************
> ************************************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.incomp_ideologies incomp_ethnic_ideology incomp_re
> l_aff incomp_ethnic_id rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_res
> cale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1232.1858  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1080.1017  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1066.9693  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1066.787  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1066.7868  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1066.7868  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1066.7868
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1011.8017
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -973.96721
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -946.58465
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -926.08176
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -910.60142
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -899.22619
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -892.50578
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -895.09558

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -893.28678  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -840.05952  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.83977  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.52993  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.51945  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.51927  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.51755  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.51755  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(78)     =     440.86
Log pseudolikelihood  = -829.51755              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .4849058   .5020391     0.97   0.334    -.4990728    1.468884
 Theological  |   1.309117   .5912753     2.21   0.027     .1502391    2.467996
        Both  |   .8384632   .5332457     1.57   0.116    -.2066792    1.883606
              |
incomp_ethn~y |   .5723882   .5456489     1.05   0.294    -.4970639     1.64184
incomp_rel_~f |   .4971908    .371081     1.34   0.180    -.2301145    1.224496
incomp_ethn~d |   .3761909   .5293549     0.71   0.477    -.6613257    1.413707
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.565316   .7994464     3.21   0.001     .9984294    4.132202
  incomp_terr |  -1.397649   .5334416    -2.62   0.009    -2.443176    -.352123
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0618874   .0322646    -1.92   0.055    -.1251248    .0013501
 vdem_rescale |  -.0216847   .0575364    -0.38   0.706     -.134454    .0910847
vdem_rescal~q |   .0077986    .008611     0.91   0.365    -.0090787    .0246758
 active_dyads |   .1088117   .1295416     0.84   0.401    -.1450851    .3627086
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.169049   1.291578    -0.91   0.365    -3.700496    1.362397
        1952  |  -1.459774   1.426702    -1.02   0.306    -4.256058    1.336511
        1953  |   .1627158   1.412111     0.12   0.908     -2.60497    2.930402
        1954  |  -2.953348   1.563412    -1.89   0.059     -6.01758    .1108838
        1955  |  -1.276792   2.118064    -0.60   0.547    -5.428121    2.874537
        1956  |  -2.263788   2.275277    -0.99   0.320    -6.723248    2.195672
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.478244   1.859968    -0.79   0.427    -5.123714    2.167226
        1959  |  -2.234319   1.965631    -1.14   0.256    -6.086886    1.618247
        1960  |  -3.027275   1.641424    -1.84   0.065    -6.244406    .1898561
        1961  |  -.8980293   1.540642    -0.58   0.560    -3.917632    2.121573
        1962  |  -.3442827    1.55894    -0.22   0.825    -3.399749    2.711183
        1963  |  -.3788321    1.57036    -0.24   0.809    -3.456681    2.699017
        1964  |  -1.210677   1.402418    -0.86   0.388    -3.959366    1.538012
        1965  |  -1.413898   1.424915    -0.99   0.321     -4.20668    1.378883
        1966  |  -1.227759   1.365177    -0.90   0.368    -3.903458    1.447939
        1967  |  -1.317455   1.364817    -0.97   0.334    -3.992447    1.357538
        1968  |  -1.585797   1.268477    -1.25   0.211    -4.071966    .9003711
        1969  |  -1.281254   1.315465    -0.97   0.330    -3.859517    1.297009
        1970  |  -1.413629   1.313834    -1.08   0.282    -3.988697    1.161439
        1971  |   -.431648   1.159442    -0.37   0.710    -2.704112    1.840816
        1972  |  -2.177359   1.360902    -1.60   0.110    -4.844678    .4899602
        1973  |  -2.923426   1.539168    -1.90   0.058    -5.940139    .0932867
        1974  |   -1.21219   1.401391    -0.86   0.387    -3.958867    1.534486
        1975  |  -1.042054   1.336479    -0.78   0.436    -3.661505    1.577398
        1976  |  -.7952531   1.318079    -0.60   0.546     -3.37864    1.788134
        1977  |  -1.044635   1.307036    -0.80   0.424    -3.606378    1.517107
        1978  |   .2253121   1.352052     0.17   0.868    -2.424662    2.875286
        1979  |  -1.471369   1.328442    -1.11   0.268    -4.075067    1.132329
        1980  |  -1.141189   1.319484    -0.86   0.387     -3.72733    1.444953
        1981  |  -1.203587   1.369612    -0.88   0.380    -3.887977    1.480802
        1982  |  -.6885171   1.302907    -0.53   0.597    -3.242167    1.865133
        1983  |  -.8709295   1.325893    -0.66   0.511    -3.469631    1.727772
        1984  |  -.6399617   1.278301    -0.50   0.617    -3.145386    1.865462
        1985  |  -.9187243   1.304505    -0.70   0.481    -3.475507    1.638059
        1986  |  -1.408658   1.337531    -1.05   0.292     -4.03017    1.212854
        1987  |  -1.149242    1.33421    -0.86   0.389    -3.764245    1.465761
        1988  |  -.4033637   1.293661    -0.31   0.755    -2.938893    2.132166
        1989  |  -1.998966   1.332157    -1.50   0.133    -4.609945     .612014
        1990  |  -1.718288   1.383778    -1.24   0.214    -4.430444    .9938676
        1991  |  -1.943761   1.374375    -1.41   0.157    -4.637486    .7499645
        1992  |  -1.214463   1.417088    -0.86   0.391    -3.991904    1.562978
        1993  |  -1.949747   1.438552    -1.36   0.175    -4.769257    .8697632
        1994  |  -1.736797   1.495834    -1.16   0.246    -4.668577    1.194983
        1995  |  -1.860349   1.471416    -1.26   0.206    -4.744271    1.023573
        1996  |  -2.060493   1.450999    -1.42   0.156    -4.904399    .7834127
        1997  |  -2.085036   1.423636    -1.46   0.143    -4.875311     .705239
        1998  |  -1.185808   1.410725    -0.84   0.401    -3.950778    1.579162
        1999  |  -1.259255   1.438634    -0.88   0.381    -4.078925    1.560415
        2000  |  -1.946979   1.426781    -1.36   0.172    -4.743419    .8494611
        2001  |  -2.752373   1.416576    -1.94   0.052    -5.528811    .0240653
        2002  |  -1.648299   1.516944    -1.09   0.277    -4.621455    1.324857
        2003  |  -2.713102   1.734866    -1.56   0.118    -6.113376    .6871725
        2004  |  -1.510217   1.574067    -0.96   0.337    -4.595332    1.574898
        2005  |   -2.33945   1.605197    -1.46   0.145    -5.485577     .806678
        2006  |  -3.629806   1.477781    -2.46   0.014    -6.526203   -.7334094
        2007  |   -3.29309    1.58452    -2.08   0.038    -6.398692   -.1874892
        2008  |  -3.163806    1.43456    -2.21   0.027    -5.975492   -.3521205
        2009  |  -2.865122   1.462694    -1.96   0.050    -5.731949    .0017064
        2010  |  -3.421067   1.414926    -2.42   0.016     -6.19427   -.6478629
        2011  |  -2.878774   1.502068    -1.92   0.055    -5.822774    .0652261
        2012  |  -3.247975   1.601772    -2.03   0.043    -6.387391   -.1085595
        2013  |  -2.768172   1.401801    -1.97   0.048    -5.515651   -.0206924
        2014  |  -1.761098   1.455816    -1.21   0.226    -4.614446    1.092249
        2015  |  -2.496681   1.409873    -1.77   0.077    -5.259981    .2666193
        2016  |  -3.443422   1.565246    -2.20   0.028    -6.511248   -.3755957
        2017  |  -2.927933   1.489585    -1.97   0.049    -5.847466   -.0083992
              |
        _cons |   -1.78312   1.431894    -1.25   0.213    -4.589581     1.02334
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.988697   .1922984                      1.611799    2.365595
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.702963   .2598877                      2.238709    3.263491
          rho |   .6895142   .0411681                      .6037109     .764002
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.incomp_ideologies incomp_ethnic_ideology incomp_re
> l_aff incomp_ethnic_id rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_res
> cale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==
> 0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1232.1858  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1080.1017  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1066.9693  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1066.787  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1066.7868  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1066.7868  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1066.7868
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1011.8017
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -973.96721
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -946.58465
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -926.08176
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -910.60142
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -899.22619
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -892.50578
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -895.09558

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -893.28678  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -840.05952  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.83977  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.52993  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.51945  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.51927  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.51755  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.51755  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(78)     =     440.86
Log pseudolikelihood  = -829.51755              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .4849058   .5020391     0.97   0.334    -.4990728    1.468884
 Theological  |   1.309117   .5912753     2.21   0.027     .1502391    2.467996
        Both  |   .8384632   .5332457     1.57   0.116    -.2066792    1.883606
              |
incomp_ethn~y |   .5723882   .5456489     1.05   0.294    -.4970639     1.64184
incomp_rel_~f |   .4971908    .371081     1.34   0.180    -.2301145    1.224496
incomp_ethn~d |   .3761909   .5293549     0.71   0.477    -.6613257    1.413707
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.565316   .7994464     3.21   0.001     .9984294    4.132202
  incomp_terr |  -1.397649   .5334416    -2.62   0.009    -2.443176    -.352123
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0618874   .0322646    -1.92   0.055    -.1251248    .0013501
 vdem_rescale |  -.0216847   .0575364    -0.38   0.706     -.134454    .0910847
vdem_rescal~q |   .0077986    .008611     0.91   0.365    -.0090787    .0246758
 active_dyads |   .1088117   .1295416     0.84   0.401    -.1450851    .3627086
post_cold_war |  -2.927933   1.489585    -1.97   0.049    -5.847466   -.0083992
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.169049   1.291578    -0.91   0.365    -3.700496    1.362397
        1952  |  -1.459774   1.426702    -1.02   0.306    -4.256058    1.336511
        1953  |   .1627158   1.412111     0.12   0.908     -2.60497    2.930402
        1954  |  -2.953348   1.563412    -1.89   0.059     -6.01758    .1108838
        1955  |  -1.276792   2.118064    -0.60   0.547    -5.428121    2.874537
        1956  |  -2.263788   2.275277    -0.99   0.320    -6.723248    2.195672
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.478244   1.859968    -0.79   0.427    -5.123714    2.167226
        1959  |  -2.234319   1.965631    -1.14   0.256    -6.086886    1.618247
        1960  |  -3.027275   1.641424    -1.84   0.065    -6.244406    .1898561
        1961  |  -.8980293   1.540642    -0.58   0.560    -3.917632    2.121573
        1962  |  -.3442827    1.55894    -0.22   0.825    -3.399749    2.711183
        1963  |  -.3788321    1.57036    -0.24   0.809    -3.456681    2.699017
        1964  |  -1.210677   1.402418    -0.86   0.388    -3.959366    1.538012
        1965  |  -1.413898   1.424915    -0.99   0.321     -4.20668    1.378883
        1966  |  -1.227759   1.365177    -0.90   0.368    -3.903458    1.447939
        1967  |  -1.317455   1.364817    -0.97   0.334    -3.992447    1.357538
        1968  |  -1.585797   1.268477    -1.25   0.211    -4.071966    .9003711
        1969  |  -1.281254   1.315465    -0.97   0.330    -3.859517    1.297009
        1970  |  -1.413629   1.313834    -1.08   0.282    -3.988697    1.161439
        1971  |   -.431648   1.159442    -0.37   0.710    -2.704112    1.840816
        1972  |  -2.177359   1.360902    -1.60   0.110    -4.844678    .4899602
        1973  |  -2.923426   1.539168    -1.90   0.058    -5.940139    .0932867
        1974  |   -1.21219   1.401391    -0.86   0.387    -3.958867    1.534486
        1975  |  -1.042054   1.336479    -0.78   0.436    -3.661505    1.577398
        1976  |  -.7952531   1.318079    -0.60   0.546     -3.37864    1.788134
        1977  |  -1.044635   1.307036    -0.80   0.424    -3.606378    1.517107
        1978  |   .2253121   1.352052     0.17   0.868    -2.424662    2.875286
        1979  |  -1.471369   1.328442    -1.11   0.268    -4.075067    1.132329
        1980  |  -1.141189   1.319484    -0.86   0.387     -3.72733    1.444953
        1981  |  -1.203587   1.369612    -0.88   0.380    -3.887977    1.480802
        1982  |  -.6885171   1.302907    -0.53   0.597    -3.242167    1.865133
        1983  |  -.8709295   1.325893    -0.66   0.511    -3.469631    1.727772
        1984  |  -.6399617   1.278301    -0.50   0.617    -3.145386    1.865462
        1985  |  -.9187243   1.304505    -0.70   0.481    -3.475507    1.638059
        1986  |  -1.408658   1.337531    -1.05   0.292     -4.03017    1.212854
        1987  |  -1.149242    1.33421    -0.86   0.389    -3.764245    1.465761
        1988  |  -.4033637   1.293661    -0.31   0.755    -2.938893    2.132166
        1989  |  -1.998966   1.332157    -1.50   0.133    -4.609945     .612014
        1990  |  -1.718288   1.383778    -1.24   0.214    -4.430444    .9938676
        1991  |   .9841719   .9260171     1.06   0.288    -.8307883    2.799132
        1992  |   1.713469   .9377933     1.83   0.068    -.1245717    3.551511
        1993  |   .9781856   .9978743     0.98   0.327    -.9776121    2.933983
        1994  |   1.191135   1.076679     1.11   0.269    -.9191161    3.301387
        1995  |   1.067584   1.035126     1.03   0.302    -.9612257    3.096393
        1996  |   .8674393   1.027391     0.84   0.398    -1.146209    2.881088
        1997  |   .8428964    .949299     0.89   0.375    -1.017695    2.703488
        1998  |   1.742124   .9292029     1.87   0.061    -.0790798    3.563329
        1999  |   1.668678   .9327851     1.79   0.074    -.1595475    3.496903
        2000  |   .9809535    .974597     1.01   0.314    -.9292216    2.891129
        2001  |   .1755596   .9064062     0.19   0.846    -1.600964    1.952083
        2002  |   1.279634   1.055087     1.21   0.225    -.7882985    3.347566
        2003  |   .2148308   1.431421     0.15   0.881    -2.590702    3.020364
        2004  |   1.417715   1.222622     1.16   0.246    -.9785794     3.81401
        2005  |    .588483   1.150521     0.51   0.609    -1.666497    2.843463
        2006  |  -.7018735   .8152415    -0.86   0.389    -2.299718    .8959705
        2007  |  -.3651579   .8251395    -0.44   0.658    -1.982401    1.252086
        2008  |  -.2358735   .8662843    -0.27   0.785     -1.93376    1.462013
        2009  |    .062811    .975656     0.06   0.949     -1.84944    1.975062
        2010  |   -.493134   .8974136    -0.55   0.583    -2.252032    1.265764
        2011  |   .0491588   1.058041     0.05   0.963    -2.024563    2.122881
        2012  |  -.3200428     1.2348    -0.26   0.795    -2.740205     2.10012
        2013  |    .159761   .7834487     0.20   0.838     -1.37577    1.695292
        2014  |   1.166834   .8134034     1.43   0.151    -.4274073    2.761075
        2015  |   .4312515   .8041175     0.54   0.592     -1.14479    2.007293
        2016  |  -.5154891   .9192402    -0.56   0.575    -2.317167    1.286189
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |   -1.78312   1.431894    -1.25   0.213    -4.589581     1.02334
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.988697   .1922984                      1.611799    2.365595
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.702963   .2598877                      2.238709    3.263491
          rho |   .6895142   .0411681                      .6037109     .764002
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_ethnic_
> ideology c.incomp_rel_aff c.incomp_ethnic_id) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_ter
> r side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_uc
> dp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1232.1858  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.3222  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1050.8834  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1050.5957  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1050.5953  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1050.5953  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1050.5953
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -999.59914
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood =  -964.4899
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -938.90341
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -919.63675
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -905.04139
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -894.00701
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -887.95773
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -890.30922

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -888.85135  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.53922  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -820.15425  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -819.73217  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -819.7151  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -819.71487  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -819.71216  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -819.71216  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(84)     =     527.35
Log pseudolikelihood  = -819.71216              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.387997   1.741958    -1.94   0.052    -6.802173    .0261781
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .3089823   .6166344     0.50   0.616    -.8995989    1.517564
 Theological  |   1.462608   1.108153     1.32   0.187    -.7093324    3.634549
        Both  |   1.860486   .7494439     2.48   0.013     .3916031    3.329369
              |
incomp_ethn~y |  -.0536522   .7456045    -0.07   0.943     -1.51501    1.407706
incomp_rel_~f |   .2642616   .4958349     0.53   0.594    -.7075569     1.23608
incomp_ethn~d |   1.138587   .7138025     1.60   0.111    -.2604398    2.537615
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |   .7715995   .7028923     1.10   0.272    -.6060441    2.149243
           1 #|
 Theological  |   .3756136   1.007998     0.37   0.709    -1.600026    2.351253
      1#Both  |  -1.426452   .8251415    -1.73   0.084    -3.043699     .190796
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ethn~y |
           1  |   1.336554    .878076     1.52   0.128    -.3844437    3.057551
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .4254976   .7098178     0.60   0.549    -.9657198    1.816715
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ethn~d |
           1  |  -1.605812   .9601239    -1.67   0.094     -3.48762    .2759962
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.552989    .796378     3.21   0.001     .9921167    4.113861
  incomp_terr |   -1.40787   .5622076    -2.50   0.012    -2.509777   -.3059638
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0498258    .033975    -1.47   0.143    -.1164155    .0167639
 vdem_rescale |  -.0521911   .0558657    -0.93   0.350     -.161686    .0573037
vdem_rescal~q |   .0058758   .0085638     0.69   0.493    -.0109089    .0226606
 active_dyads |   .0055735   .1243972     0.04   0.964    -.2382405    .2493874
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.201346   1.288706    -0.93   0.351    -3.727163    1.324471
        1952  |   -1.41742   1.428615    -0.99   0.321    -4.217455    1.382614
        1953  |   .1213453   1.359182     0.09   0.929    -2.542603    2.785294
        1954  |  -2.958503   1.559859    -1.90   0.058    -6.015769    .0987636
        1955  |  -1.244696   2.134634    -0.58   0.560    -5.428501    2.939109
        1956  |  -2.255129   2.267825    -0.99   0.320    -6.699984    2.189727
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.483943   1.863686    -0.80   0.426    -5.136701    2.168816
        1959  |  -2.260902   1.975974    -1.14   0.253     -6.13374    1.611937
        1960  |  -3.151204   1.648072    -1.91   0.056    -6.381366    .0789586
        1961  |    -1.0926   1.549629    -0.71   0.481    -4.129817    1.944616
        1962  |  -.5724215   1.581735    -0.36   0.717    -3.672565    2.527722
        1963  |  -.6407308   1.633622    -0.39   0.695    -3.842572     2.56111
        1964  |  -1.533198   1.440563    -1.06   0.287    -4.356649    1.290252
        1965  |  -1.739928   1.460873    -1.19   0.234    -4.603187     1.12333
        1966  |  -1.495505   1.404287    -1.06   0.287    -4.247856    1.256847
        1967  |  -1.602241   1.391695    -1.15   0.250    -4.329913    1.125431
        1968  |   -1.89156   1.270833    -1.49   0.137    -4.382347    .5992266
        1969  |  -1.589171   1.318703    -1.21   0.228    -4.173781    .9954391
        1970  |   -1.71442   1.312091    -1.31   0.191    -4.286071    .8572308
        1971  |  -.7372735   1.173673    -0.63   0.530    -3.037631    1.563084
        1972  |  -2.535282   1.356692    -1.87   0.062    -5.194349    .1237861
        1973  |  -3.224869   1.490018    -2.16   0.030    -6.145251   -.3044871
        1974  |  -1.530356   1.405545    -1.09   0.276    -4.285174    1.224463
        1975  |  -1.345243   1.351095    -1.00   0.319     -3.99334    1.302854
        1976  |  -1.099673   1.335862    -0.82   0.410    -3.717916    1.518569
        1977  |  -1.356252   1.325578    -1.02   0.306    -3.954337    1.241834
        1978  |  -.0792696   1.373004    -0.06   0.954    -2.770308    2.611769
        1979  |  -1.901024   1.344229    -1.41   0.157    -4.535664    .7336164
        1980  |   -1.60226    1.34109    -1.19   0.232    -4.230748    1.026228
        1981  |  -1.651383   1.414669    -1.17   0.243    -4.424082    1.121317
        1982  |  -1.123125   1.336672    -0.84   0.401    -3.742954    1.496705
        1983  |  -1.305875   1.370533    -0.95   0.341    -3.992069     1.38032
        1984  |  -1.030524   1.318162    -0.78   0.434    -3.614074    1.553026
        1985  |  -1.349115   1.348478    -1.00   0.317    -3.992085    1.293854
        1986  |  -1.868778   1.392658    -1.34   0.180    -4.598337    .8607814
        1987  |  -1.578024   1.388334    -1.14   0.256    -4.299109    1.143061
        1988  |   -.781376   1.341278    -0.58   0.560    -3.410233    1.847481
        1989  |  -2.577683   1.404339    -1.84   0.066    -5.330137    .1747704
        1990  |  -2.177111   1.471419    -1.48   0.139     -5.06104    .7068185
        1991  |   1.256543   .9210909     1.36   0.173    -.5487624    3.061847
        1992  |   1.875584   .9467971     1.98   0.048     .0198953    3.731272
        1993  |   1.197138   1.001402     1.20   0.232    -.7655736    3.159851
        1994  |   1.368384   1.077287     1.27   0.204    -.7430596    3.479828
        1995  |   1.263713   1.027988     1.23   0.219    -.7511059    3.278531
        1996  |   1.111758   1.023638     1.09   0.277    -.8945358    3.118053
        1997  |   .9971869   .9627515     1.04   0.300    -.8897714    2.884145
        1998  |    1.89063   .9375426     2.02   0.044     .0530807     3.72818
        1999  |   1.798077   .9527742     1.89   0.059     -.069326     3.66548
        2000  |   1.085347   .9889444     1.10   0.272    -.8529484    3.023642
        2001  |   .3274495   .9236129     0.35   0.723    -1.482799    2.137698
        2002  |   1.416727    1.05777     1.34   0.180    -.6564642    3.489919
        2003  |   .4575389   1.378683     0.33   0.740    -2.244629    3.159707
        2004  |   1.526131   1.184908     1.29   0.198    -.7962464    3.848509
        2005  |   .6211629   1.166604     0.53   0.594    -1.665339    2.907665
        2006  |  -.6267373   .7850275    -0.80   0.425    -2.165363    .9118883
        2007  |  -.3771878   .8555346    -0.44   0.659    -2.054005    1.299629
        2008  |  -.2555794   .8146706    -0.31   0.754    -1.852304    1.341146
        2009  |   .0222358   .9717656     0.02   0.982     -1.88239    1.926861
        2010  |   -.527175   .8665824    -0.61   0.543    -2.225645    1.171295
        2011  |   .1350358   1.051964     0.13   0.898    -1.926776    2.196847
        2012  |  -.3124324   1.244544    -0.25   0.802    -2.751694    2.126829
        2013  |   .2387546   .7933995     0.30   0.763     -1.31628    1.793789
        2014  |   1.193638   .8159318     1.46   0.143     -.405559    2.792835
        2015  |   .4289253   .7947389     0.54   0.589    -1.128734    1.986585
        2016  |  -.5125185   .9223695    -0.56   0.578     -2.32033    1.295292
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.779677   1.539485    -1.16   0.248    -4.797013    1.237659
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.052718   .2007791                      1.659198    2.446238
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.790885   .2801757                      2.292399    3.397768
          rho |   .7030513   .0419167                      .6149933    .7782315
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.incomp_ideologies incomp_ethnic_ideology incomp_rel_aff inco
> mp_ethnic_id rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_
> rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_
> data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =   -8817265  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6035187.6  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3944539.5  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1719854.3  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1163664.1  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -571815.33  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -393670.22  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -387309.75  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -387234.26  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -387234.21  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -387234.21  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -333076.23  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6325.0004  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6193.5389  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6103.0006  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6019.9747  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6005.3652  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6005.1609  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6005.1609  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -90997.748  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -11719.213  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7624.1987  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6890.6069  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6136.8266  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5995.0122  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5879.0512  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5801.6027  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood =  -5747.962  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5746.7325  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5746.7284  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -5746.7284  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        829
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        180

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.6
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(40)     =      88.76
Log likelihood  = -5746.7284                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.1359508   .1298399    -1.05   0.295    -.3904324    .1185308
 Theological  |   .0005655   .1429795     0.00   0.997    -.2796692    .2808003
        Both  |   .0017088   .1377948     0.01   0.990    -.2683641    .2717817
              |
incomp_ethn~y |   .1924921   .1514623     1.27   0.204    -.1043685    .4893526
incomp_rel_~f |   .0286178   .1062233     0.27   0.788     -.179576    .2368116
incomp_ethn~d |  -.2356726   .1374019    -1.72   0.086    -.5049753    .0336301
rebel_ext_m~t |   .5531649   .2742704     2.02   0.044     .0156047    1.090725
  incomp_terr |  -.2165049   .1463004    -1.48   0.139    -.5032484    .0702386
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0029771    .012239    -0.24   0.808    -.0269651    .0210108
 vdem_rescale |   .0155641   .0127595     1.22   0.223     -.009444    .0405722
vdem_rescal~q |    .000127   .0023627     0.05   0.957    -.0045037    .0047577
     rcd_loot |  -.0036174   .0873586    -0.04   0.967     -.174837    .1676023
    rcd_crime |   .4087822    .096139     4.25   0.000     .2203532    .5972112
 active_dyads |  -.0153012    .042456    -0.36   0.719    -.0985134    .0679111
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000623   .0000112     5.57   0.000     .0000404    .0000842
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2181783   .1809416    -1.21   0.228    -.5728174    .1364608
        1992  |   .1623121   .1773914     0.91   0.360    -.1853688    .5099929
        1993  |   -.033865   .1811497    -0.19   0.852    -.3889119    .3211818
        1994  |  -.0131016   .1817503    -0.07   0.943    -.3693257    .3431225
        1995  |   -.162013   .1844341    -0.88   0.380    -.5234973    .1994712
        1996  |   .0063029   .1930702     0.03   0.974    -.3721077    .3847135
        1997  |   -.103153   .1921458    -0.54   0.591     -.479752    .2734459
        1998  |   -.061383    .185843    -0.33   0.741    -.4256286    .3028627
        1999  |  -.0507944   .1867063    -0.27   0.786    -.4167321    .3151433
        2000  |  -.0884399   .1864739    -0.47   0.635    -.4539221    .2770423
        2001  |  -.3182764   .1872054    -1.70   0.089    -.6851922    .0486394
        2002  |  -.0014574   .1833214    -0.01   0.994    -.3607607     .357846
        2003  |   -.276255   .1957758    -1.41   0.158    -.6599685    .1074586
        2004  |  -.1529707   .1962354    -0.78   0.436    -.5375849    .2316436
        2005  |  -.1946151   .2045752    -0.95   0.341    -.5955751    .2063448
        2006  |   -.259326   .1955819    -1.33   0.185    -.6426595    .1240075
        2007  |  -.1086128   .1975474    -0.55   0.582    -.4957986    .2785731
        2008  |  -.1140845   .1951838    -0.58   0.559    -.4966377    .2684687
        2009  |  -.1089239    .193328    -0.56   0.573    -.4878399    .2699921
        2010  |  -.3316362   .2032715    -1.63   0.103     -.730041    .0667685
        2011  |  -.4225033   .2059487    -2.05   0.040    -.8261553   -.0188514
        2012  |  -.3134255   .2142568    -1.46   0.144    -.7333611    .1065102
        2013  |  -.4431078   .2174014    -2.04   0.042    -.8692067   -.0170089
        2014  |  -.1855498   .2057991    -0.90   0.367    -.5889086    .2178089
        2015  |  -.4109403   .2087443    -1.97   0.049    -.8200716    -.001809
              |
        _cons |   .5301601     .35426     1.50   0.135    -.1641767    1.224497
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0650055   .1184913                     -.2972441    .1672331
        /ln_s |    4.54307   .2012507                      4.148626    4.937514
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9370623   .1110337                      .7428626     1.18203
            s |   93.97885   18.91331                      63.34687    139.4232
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 516.86               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.incomp_ideologies incomp_ethnic_ideology incomp_rel_aff inco
> mp_ethnic_id rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_
> rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_
> data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -128032.96  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7644.9884  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5488.2963  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4980.0728  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4757.8863  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4637.4494  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4443.5647  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4414.3793  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4302.6377  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4274.5983  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4274.2469  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -4274.2465  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        768
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        119

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(40)     =      96.77
Log likelihood  = -4274.2465                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.1095974   .1665308    -0.66   0.510    -.4359917    .2167969
 Theological  |   -.049749   .1717582    -0.29   0.772     -.386389     .286891
        Both  |  -.0513972    .165266    -0.31   0.756    -.3753126    .2725183
              |
incomp_ethn~y |   .2351719   .1914494     1.23   0.219     -.140062    .6104059
incomp_rel_~f |   .1069787   .1268058     0.84   0.399    -.1415562    .3555135
incomp_ethn~d |  -.2936832   .1699204    -1.73   0.084    -.6267209    .0393546
rebel_ext_m~t |    .292045   .3623376     0.81   0.420    -.4181238    1.002214
  incomp_terr |  -.1946068   .1874555    -1.04   0.299    -.5620129    .1727993
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0109267   .0157943     0.69   0.489    -.0200296    .0418831
 vdem_rescale |   .0396999    .014727     2.70   0.007     .0108355    .0685642
vdem_rescal~q |   .0017924    .002735     0.66   0.512     -.003568    .0071529
     rcd_loot |  -.0962296   .0969868    -0.99   0.321    -.2863202     .093861
    rcd_crime |   .5150799   .1105663     4.66   0.000     .2983739    .7317858
 active_dyads |   .0047636   .0478669     0.10   0.921    -.0890537     .098581
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000517   .0000124     4.16   0.000     .0000273    .0000761
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2513193   .1846242    -1.36   0.173    -.6131761    .1105374
        1992  |   .1282009   .1901471     0.67   0.500    -.2444805    .5008823
        1993  |  -.0851717   .1968736    -0.43   0.665    -.4710368    .3006934
        1994  |  -.0929146   .2013857    -0.46   0.645    -.4876233    .3017941
        1995  |  -.2379352   .1996384    -1.19   0.233    -.6292192    .1533489
        1996  |  -.0683713   .2067664    -0.33   0.741     -.473626    .3368834
        1997  |  -.2462456   .2080883    -1.18   0.237    -.6540912       .1616
        1998  |  -.2219441   .2038997    -1.09   0.276    -.6215802     .177692
        1999  |  -.2275837   .2059976    -1.10   0.269    -.6313316    .1761643
        2000  |  -.2084944   .2015467    -1.03   0.301    -.6035187    .1865299
        2001  |  -.4227494   .2002957    -2.11   0.035    -.8153217   -.0301772
        2002  |  -.1238544   .1967525    -0.63   0.529    -.5094822    .2617734
        2003  |  -.3931259   .2087652    -1.88   0.060    -.8022982    .0160464
        2004  |   -.266032   .2070186    -1.29   0.199    -.6717811    .1397171
        2005  |  -.3262613   .2157352    -1.51   0.130    -.7490945    .0965719
        2006  |   -.376898   .2094663    -1.80   0.072    -.7874445    .0336484
        2007  |  -.2396248   .2121232    -1.13   0.259    -.6553787    .1761291
        2008  |  -.2561286   .2149229    -1.19   0.233    -.6773697    .1651125
        2009  |  -.2022383   .2124781    -0.95   0.341    -.6186877    .2142112
        2010  |  -.4605108    .222075    -2.07   0.038    -.8957698   -.0252517
        2011  |  -.5839586   .2272228    -2.57   0.010    -1.029307     -.13861
        2012  |   -.556994   .2332574    -2.39   0.017     -1.01417   -.0998179
        2013  |  -.6722963   .2378148    -2.83   0.005    -1.138405   -.2061879
        2014  |  -.3425896   .2243514    -1.53   0.127    -.7823103     .097131
        2015  |  -.5981775   .2321426    -2.58   0.010    -1.053169   -.1431865
              |
        _cons |   .2658024   .4408643     0.60   0.547    -.5982758    1.129881
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ********************
. * Table A6-B. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Any Ideological Claim - Mon
> adic, ACD2EPR Data *
. ******************************************************************************
> ********************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 rel_aff01 claim_ideology reb_id_ethnic reb_ideology_
> ethnic rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1232.1858  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1096.5028  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1084.7261  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1084.5809  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1084.5808  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1084.5808  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1084.5808
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1024.1251
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -982.91456
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -953.27814
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -931.20824
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -914.77979
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -903.10243
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -895.05278
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -896.48954

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -896.0751  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -839.79422  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.73654  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.31003  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.29719  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.29719  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.29482  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.29482  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     386.10
Log pseudolikelihood  = -829.29482              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .8319422   .7051592     1.18   0.238    -.5501445    2.214029
claim_ideol~y |   .6402299   .3760962     1.70   0.089     -.096905    1.377365
reb_id_ethnic |   .9134778   .5464218     1.67   0.095    -.1574893    1.984445
reb_ideolog~c |   .7251066    .476921     1.52   0.128    -.2096414    1.659855
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.759501   .8557073     3.22   0.001     1.082346    4.436657
  incomp_terr |  -1.228948   .5329917    -2.31   0.021    -2.273593   -.1843038
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0613132   .0326255    -1.88   0.060    -.1252579    .0026315
 vdem_rescale |  -.0139338    .055433    -0.25   0.802    -.1225806    .0947129
vdem_rescal~q |   .0088078   .0083771     1.05   0.293    -.0076111    .0252267
 active_dyads |   .0958426   .1320155     0.73   0.468     -.162903    .3545882
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.041666   1.251587    -0.83   0.405     -3.49473    1.411399
        1952  |  -1.391738   1.411679    -0.99   0.324    -4.158578    1.375101
        1953  |   .1021949   1.335997     0.08   0.939    -2.516312    2.720701
        1954  |  -3.159075   1.569386    -2.01   0.044    -6.235015   -.0831353
        1955  |  -1.468221    2.14499    -0.68   0.494    -5.672324    2.735881
        1956  |   -2.38297   2.290884    -1.04   0.298     -6.87302    2.107081
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.641472   1.860678    -0.88   0.378    -5.288334    2.005389
        1959  |  -2.355982   1.979948    -1.19   0.234    -6.236609    1.524645
        1960  |  -3.170119   1.608353    -1.97   0.049    -6.322433   -.0178054
        1961  |  -1.231518   1.475457    -0.83   0.404     -4.12336    1.660324
        1962  |  -.7326768   1.479399    -0.50   0.620    -3.632246    2.166892
        1963  |  -.8464103   1.488898    -0.57   0.570    -3.764596    2.071775
        1964  |  -1.724402    1.31376    -1.31   0.189    -4.299323    .8505202
        1965  |  -1.984879    1.35095    -1.47   0.142    -4.632693    .6629352
        1966  |  -1.754374   1.287501    -1.36   0.173    -4.277828    .7690811
        1967  |  -1.820076   1.267921    -1.44   0.151    -4.305154    .6650029
        1968  |  -2.099668    1.21168    -1.73   0.083    -4.474517    .2751815
        1969  |  -1.794745   1.271241    -1.41   0.158    -4.286331    .6968406
        1970  |  -1.932691    1.24891    -1.55   0.122     -4.38051    .5151289
        1971  |  -.9328841   1.084703    -0.86   0.390    -3.058863    1.193095
        1972  |  -2.694339   1.306537    -2.06   0.039    -5.255104   -.1335742
        1973  |  -3.371807   1.427421    -2.36   0.018      -6.1695   -.5741138
        1974  |  -1.690439   1.356498    -1.25   0.213    -4.349126     .968247
        1975  |  -1.537449   1.306188    -1.18   0.239    -4.097529    1.022632
        1976  |  -1.320787   1.288566    -1.03   0.305     -3.84633    1.204757
        1977  |  -1.567877   1.276554    -1.23   0.219    -4.069878    .9341231
        1978  |  -.2838703   1.306022    -0.22   0.828    -2.843626    2.275885
        1979  |  -1.992005   1.284981    -1.55   0.121    -4.510522    .5265118
        1980  |  -1.653717   1.260983    -1.31   0.190    -4.125198    .8177643
        1981  |  -1.713837   1.298374    -1.32   0.187    -4.258603    .8309292
        1982  |  -1.203984   1.244632    -0.97   0.333    -3.643419     1.23545
        1983  |  -1.394962   1.272834    -1.10   0.273     -3.88967    1.099746
        1984  |  -1.155021   1.225291    -0.94   0.346    -3.556547    1.246505
        1985  |   -1.44208   1.248703    -1.15   0.248    -3.889494    1.005334
        1986  |  -1.968583   1.290614    -1.53   0.127     -4.49814    .5609738
        1987  |  -1.659629   1.266731    -1.31   0.190    -4.142376    .8231172
        1988  |   -.929867   1.257313    -0.74   0.460    -3.394155    1.534421
        1989  |  -2.563142   1.282299    -2.00   0.046    -5.076402   -.0498828
        1990  |  -2.280629   1.301008    -1.75   0.080    -4.830558    .2693004
        1991  |  -2.485652   1.297877    -1.92   0.055    -5.029444    .0581403
        1992  |  -1.711501   1.320849    -1.30   0.195    -4.300318    .8773163
        1993  |  -2.423238     1.3287    -1.82   0.068    -5.027442    .1809659
        1994  |    -2.2201   1.400532    -1.59   0.113    -4.965092    .5248929
        1995  |  -2.315936   1.374567    -1.68   0.092    -5.010038    .3781658
        1996  |  -2.491871   1.348356    -1.85   0.065    -5.134601    .1508581
        1997  |  -2.521464   1.319569    -1.91   0.056    -5.107771     .064844
        1998  |  -1.609372   1.317117    -1.22   0.222    -4.190874    .9721297
        1999  |  -1.645347   1.342235    -1.23   0.220    -4.276079     .985386
        2000  |  -2.330665   1.343133    -1.74   0.083    -4.963158    .3018278
        2001  |  -3.178677   1.317459    -2.41   0.016     -5.76085    -.596505
        2002  |  -2.100039   1.437685    -1.46   0.144    -4.917849    .7177717
        2003  |  -3.170299   1.660986    -1.91   0.056    -6.425772    .0851739
        2004  |   -1.96621    1.47996    -1.33   0.184    -4.866879    .9344587
        2005  |  -2.752524   1.528596    -1.80   0.072    -5.748517    .2434685
        2006  |  -4.022673   1.377436    -2.92   0.003    -6.722399   -1.322948
        2007  |  -3.656186   1.473518    -2.48   0.013    -6.544229   -.7681434
        2008  |  -3.530032   1.334381    -2.65   0.008    -6.145371   -.9146932
        2009  |  -3.200191   1.348426    -2.37   0.018    -5.843056   -.5573255
        2010  |  -3.761634   1.329394    -2.83   0.005    -6.367198    -1.15607
        2011  |  -3.241958   1.422676    -2.28   0.023    -6.030352   -.4535645
        2012  |  -3.650066   1.552724    -2.35   0.019     -6.69335    -.606783
        2013  |  -3.152357   1.326792    -2.38   0.018    -5.752822   -.5518914
        2014  |  -2.134669    1.37538    -1.55   0.121    -4.830365    .5610272
        2015  |  -2.932571   1.376149    -2.13   0.033    -5.629774   -.2353686
        2016  |  -3.837218   1.476158    -2.60   0.009    -6.730435   -.9440011
        2017  |  -3.262581   1.437647    -2.27   0.023    -6.080318   -.4448439
              |
        _cons |  -2.450712   1.433251    -1.71   0.087    -5.259832     .358409
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.027792   .1902692                      1.654871    2.400713
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.756319   .2622213                      2.287445    3.321301
          rho |   .6978213   .0401214                      .6139683    .7702751
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 rel_aff01 claim_ideology reb_id_ethnic reb_ideology_
> ethnic rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1232.1858  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1096.5028  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1084.7261  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1084.5809  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1084.5808  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1084.5808  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1084.5808
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1024.1251
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -982.91456
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -953.27814
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -931.20824
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -914.77979
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -903.10243
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -895.05278
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -896.48954

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -896.0751  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -839.79422  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.73654  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.31003  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.29719  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.29719  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.29482  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.29482  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     386.10
Log pseudolikelihood  = -829.29482              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .8319422   .7051592     1.18   0.238    -.5501445    2.214029
claim_ideol~y |   .6402299   .3760962     1.70   0.089     -.096905    1.377365
reb_id_ethnic |   .9134778   .5464218     1.67   0.095    -.1574893    1.984445
reb_ideolog~c |   .7251066    .476921     1.52   0.128    -.2096414    1.659855
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.759501   .8557073     3.22   0.001     1.082346    4.436657
  incomp_terr |  -1.228948   .5329917    -2.31   0.021    -2.273593   -.1843038
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0613132   .0326255    -1.88   0.060    -.1252579    .0026315
 vdem_rescale |  -.0139338    .055433    -0.25   0.802    -.1225806    .0947129
vdem_rescal~q |   .0088078   .0083771     1.05   0.293    -.0076111    .0252267
 active_dyads |   .0958426   .1320155     0.73   0.468     -.162903    .3545882
post_cold_war |  -3.262581   1.437647    -2.27   0.023    -6.080318   -.4448439
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.041666   1.251587    -0.83   0.405     -3.49473    1.411399
        1952  |  -1.391738   1.411679    -0.99   0.324    -4.158578    1.375101
        1953  |   .1021949   1.335997     0.08   0.939    -2.516312    2.720701
        1954  |  -3.159075   1.569386    -2.01   0.044    -6.235015   -.0831353
        1955  |  -1.468221    2.14499    -0.68   0.494    -5.672324    2.735881
        1956  |   -2.38297   2.290884    -1.04   0.298     -6.87302    2.107081
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.641472   1.860678    -0.88   0.378    -5.288334    2.005389
        1959  |  -2.355982   1.979948    -1.19   0.234    -6.236609    1.524645
        1960  |  -3.170119   1.608353    -1.97   0.049    -6.322433   -.0178054
        1961  |  -1.231518   1.475457    -0.83   0.404     -4.12336    1.660324
        1962  |  -.7326768   1.479399    -0.50   0.620    -3.632246    2.166892
        1963  |  -.8464103   1.488898    -0.57   0.570    -3.764596    2.071775
        1964  |  -1.724402    1.31376    -1.31   0.189    -4.299323    .8505202
        1965  |  -1.984879    1.35095    -1.47   0.142    -4.632693    .6629352
        1966  |  -1.754374   1.287501    -1.36   0.173    -4.277828    .7690811
        1967  |  -1.820076   1.267921    -1.44   0.151    -4.305154    .6650029
        1968  |  -2.099668    1.21168    -1.73   0.083    -4.474517    .2751815
        1969  |  -1.794745   1.271241    -1.41   0.158    -4.286331    .6968406
        1970  |  -1.932691    1.24891    -1.55   0.122     -4.38051    .5151289
        1971  |  -.9328841   1.084703    -0.86   0.390    -3.058863    1.193095
        1972  |  -2.694339   1.306537    -2.06   0.039    -5.255104   -.1335742
        1973  |  -3.371807   1.427421    -2.36   0.018      -6.1695   -.5741138
        1974  |  -1.690439   1.356498    -1.25   0.213    -4.349126     .968247
        1975  |  -1.537449   1.306188    -1.18   0.239    -4.097529    1.022632
        1976  |  -1.320787   1.288566    -1.03   0.305     -3.84633    1.204757
        1977  |  -1.567877   1.276554    -1.23   0.219    -4.069878    .9341231
        1978  |  -.2838703   1.306022    -0.22   0.828    -2.843626    2.275885
        1979  |  -1.992005   1.284981    -1.55   0.121    -4.510522    .5265118
        1980  |  -1.653717   1.260983    -1.31   0.190    -4.125198    .8177643
        1981  |  -1.713837   1.298374    -1.32   0.187    -4.258603    .8309292
        1982  |  -1.203984   1.244632    -0.97   0.333    -3.643419     1.23545
        1983  |  -1.394962   1.272834    -1.10   0.273     -3.88967    1.099746
        1984  |  -1.155021   1.225291    -0.94   0.346    -3.556547    1.246505
        1985  |   -1.44208   1.248703    -1.15   0.248    -3.889494    1.005334
        1986  |  -1.968583   1.290614    -1.53   0.127     -4.49814    .5609738
        1987  |  -1.659629   1.266731    -1.31   0.190    -4.142376    .8231172
        1988  |   -.929867   1.257313    -0.74   0.460    -3.394155    1.534421
        1989  |  -2.563142   1.282299    -2.00   0.046    -5.076402   -.0498828
        1990  |  -2.280629   1.301008    -1.75   0.080    -4.830558    .2693004
        1991  |   .7769288   .9425888     0.82   0.410    -1.070511    2.624369
        1992  |    1.55108   .9578916     1.62   0.105    -.3263533    3.428513
        1993  |   .8393425    1.02271     0.82   0.412    -1.165133    2.843818
        1994  |   1.042481   1.102768     0.95   0.344    -1.118905    3.203867
        1995  |   .9466448   1.040814     0.91   0.363    -1.093312    2.986602
        1996  |   .7707093   1.030048     0.75   0.454    -1.248148    2.789566
        1997  |    .741117   .9668891     0.77   0.443    -1.153951    2.636185
        1998  |   1.653208   .9487296     1.74   0.081    -.2062675    3.512684
        1999  |   1.617234   .9537574     1.70   0.090     -.252096    3.486564
        2000  |   .9319154   .9949645     0.94   0.349    -1.018179     2.88201
        2001  |   .0839033   .9405039     0.09   0.929     -1.75945    1.927257
        2002  |   1.162542     1.0779     1.08   0.281     -.950103    3.275187
        2003  |   .0922818   1.448484     0.06   0.949    -2.746694    2.931258
        2004  |   1.296371   1.225707     1.06   0.290     -1.10597    3.698712
        2005  |   .5100567   1.142831     0.45   0.655    -1.729851    2.749965
        2006  |  -.7600925   .8659013    -0.88   0.380    -2.457228    .9370428
        2007  |  -.3936056   .8321836    -0.47   0.636    -2.024656    1.237444
        2008  |  -.2674515   .9140688    -0.29   0.770    -2.058993     1.52409
        2009  |   .0623898   .9935723     0.06   0.950    -1.884976    2.009756
        2010  |  -.4990532   .9367129    -0.53   0.594    -2.334977     1.33687
        2011  |   .0206224   1.074295     0.02   0.985    -2.084956    2.126201
        2012  |  -.3874858   1.252573    -0.31   0.757    -2.842483    2.067512
        2013  |   .1102242    .791948     0.14   0.889    -1.441965    1.662414
        2014  |   1.127912   .8223861     1.37   0.170    -.4839352    2.739759
        2015  |   .3300095   .8445236     0.39   0.696    -1.325226    1.985245
        2016  |  -.5746373   .9313233    -0.62   0.537    -2.399997    1.250723
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -2.450712   1.433251    -1.71   0.087    -5.259832     .358409
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.027792   .1902692                      1.654871    2.400713
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.756319   .2622213                      2.287445    3.321301
          rho |   .6978213   .0401214                      .6139683    .7702751
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(c.rel_aff01 c.claim_ideology c.reb_i
> d_ethnic c.reb_ideology_ethnic) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP
>  vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vc
> e(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1232.1858  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.7187  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1076.0048  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1075.7326  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1075.7315  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1075.7315  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1075.7315
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1018.5301
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -979.43917
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -951.21995
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood =  -930.0796
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -914.34291
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -903.20262
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -895.93679
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -897.95027

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -896.77287  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -838.47627  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.74489  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.23848  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.21632  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.21632  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.21181  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.21181  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(80)     =     492.37
Log pseudolikelihood  = -826.21181              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -2.450441   2.031908    -1.21   0.228    -6.432907    1.532024
    rel_aff01 |   .8876617     .69313     1.28   0.200    -.4708481    2.246172
claim_ideol~y |   1.013336   .5133503     1.97   0.048      .007188    2.019484
reb_id_ethnic |   1.546045   .8107863     1.91   0.057    -.0430672    3.135157
reb_ideolog~c |   .4682554   .6411148     0.73   0.465    -.7883065    1.724817
              |
post_cold_war#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |   .0760241   .9531198     0.08   0.936    -1.792056    1.944105
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.7361009    .747278    -0.99   0.325    -2.200739     .728537
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
reb_id_ethnic |
           1  |     -1.326   1.208741    -1.10   0.273    -3.695088    1.043088
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
reb_ideolog~c |
           1  |   .6459324   .8652881     0.75   0.455    -1.050001    2.341866
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.763144   .8623441     3.20   0.001      1.07298    4.453307
  incomp_terr |  -1.242298   .5402001    -2.30   0.021    -2.301071   -.1835255
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0567187   .0341321    -1.66   0.097    -.1236163     .010179
 vdem_rescale |  -.0366835   .0517945    -0.71   0.479    -.1381989     .064832
vdem_rescal~q |   .0076495    .008228     0.93   0.353     -.008477     .023776
 active_dyads |    .065678    .125496     0.52   0.601    -.1802896    .3116455
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.003165   1.251468    -0.80   0.423    -3.455998    1.449668
        1952  |  -1.339276   1.426578    -0.94   0.348    -4.135318    1.456766
        1953  |   .1279713   1.309179     0.10   0.922    -2.437972    2.693915
        1954  |  -3.230491   1.585558    -2.04   0.042    -6.338127   -.1228542
        1955  |  -1.493858   2.258045    -0.66   0.508    -5.919546    2.931829
        1956  |  -2.446269    2.33047    -1.05   0.294    -7.013905    2.121368
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.67031   1.904758    -0.88   0.381    -5.403567    2.062947
        1959  |  -2.409073   2.017466    -1.19   0.232    -6.363234    1.545088
        1960  |  -3.248749   1.618072    -2.01   0.045    -6.420111   -.0773862
        1961  |  -1.364847   1.488346    -0.92   0.359    -4.281952    1.552258
        1962  |   -.907803   1.493741    -0.61   0.543    -3.835482    2.019876
        1963  |  -1.043436   1.495367    -0.70   0.485    -3.974303     1.88743
        1964  |   -1.93404   1.318708    -1.47   0.142    -4.518659    .6505798
        1965  |  -2.234637   1.351334    -1.65   0.098    -4.883202    .4139294
        1966  |  -1.971424   1.284233    -1.54   0.125    -4.488474    .5456256
        1967  |  -2.035367   1.259117    -1.62   0.106    -4.503191     .432457
        1968  |  -2.327678   1.208016    -1.93   0.054    -4.695346    .0399903
        1969  |  -2.010113    1.26022    -1.60   0.111    -4.480099    .4598731
        1970  |  -2.151133    1.24067    -1.73   0.083    -4.582801    .2805356
        1971  |  -1.127304   1.078128    -1.05   0.296    -3.240395    .9857879
        1972  |  -2.924748   1.286248    -2.27   0.023    -5.445748   -.4037475
        1973  |  -3.629362   1.410179    -2.57   0.010    -6.393262   -.8654622
        1974  |  -1.894631   1.338985    -1.41   0.157    -4.518993    .7297304
        1975  |  -1.755437   1.290116    -1.36   0.174    -4.284018    .7731444
        1976  |  -1.539303   1.278222    -1.20   0.228    -4.044571    .9659656
        1977  |  -1.802233   1.270595    -1.42   0.156    -4.292554    .6880878
        1978  |  -.5024832   1.297468    -0.39   0.699    -3.045474    2.040507
        1979  |  -2.262151   1.283042    -1.76   0.078    -4.776868    .2525663
        1980  |  -1.927009   1.261987    -1.53   0.127    -4.400457    .5464399
        1981  |  -1.992366   1.305872    -1.53   0.127    -4.551827    .5670964
        1982  |  -1.484685   1.255644    -1.18   0.237    -3.945702    .9763314
        1983  |  -1.684708   1.289066    -1.31   0.191    -4.211231    .8418153
        1984  |  -1.440989    1.23615    -1.17   0.244    -3.863799    .9818207
        1985  |  -1.741842   1.251356    -1.39   0.164    -4.194455    .7107709
        1986  |  -2.269056   1.316738    -1.72   0.085    -4.849816    .3117031
        1987  |  -1.945461   1.283317    -1.52   0.130    -4.460717    .5697942
        1988  |   -1.20488   1.260653    -0.96   0.339    -3.675714    1.265954
        1989  |  -2.945187   1.302941    -2.26   0.024    -5.498904   -.3914691
        1990  |  -2.565792   1.328953    -1.93   0.054    -5.170492    .0389075
        1991  |   .9553476   .9348152     1.02   0.307    -.8768566    2.787552
        1992  |   1.681228   .9680193     1.74   0.082    -.2160554    3.578511
        1993  |   .9868835    1.02703     0.96   0.337    -1.026059    2.999826
        1994  |   1.168184   1.111083     1.05   0.293    -1.009497    3.345866
        1995  |   1.105616   1.031452     1.07   0.284    -.9159922    3.127223
        1996  |   .9580225   1.018163     0.94   0.347    -1.037541    2.953586
        1997  |   .9061348    .970702     0.93   0.351    -.9964063    2.808676
        1998  |   1.804179   .9452261     1.91   0.056      -.04843    3.656788
        1999  |   1.783072   .9637418     1.85   0.064    -.1058266    3.671972
        2000  |   1.090791   1.002016     1.09   0.276     -.873124    3.054706
        2001  |   .2478585   .9553278     0.26   0.795     -1.62455    2.120267
        2002  |   1.302947    1.08189     1.20   0.228     -.817518    3.423413
        2003  |   .2378785   1.434898     0.17   0.868     -2.57447    3.050226
        2004  |   1.404376   1.210124     1.16   0.246    -.9674242    3.776175
        2005  |   .5923181   1.148827     0.52   0.606    -1.659341    2.843977
        2006  |  -.6433639   .8531397    -0.75   0.451    -2.315487    1.028759
        2007  |  -.2609658    .833705    -0.31   0.754    -1.894998    1.373066
        2008  |  -.1353557   .8960435    -0.15   0.880    -1.891569    1.620857
        2009  |   .1653655   .9983392     0.17   0.868    -1.791343    2.122074
        2010  |  -.3623334   .9250127    -0.39   0.695    -2.175325    1.450658
        2011  |    .099711   1.072371     0.09   0.926    -2.002098     2.20152
        2012  |  -.3549825   1.252703    -0.28   0.777    -2.810236     2.10027
        2013  |   .1609493   .7800568     0.21   0.837    -1.367934    1.689833
        2014  |   1.154673   .8194461     1.41   0.159    -.4514113    2.760758
        2015  |   .3541185   .8296634     0.43   0.670    -1.271992    1.980229
        2016  |  -.5661692   .9292572    -0.61   0.542     -2.38748    1.255141
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -3.043196   1.573632    -1.93   0.053    -6.127459    .0410666
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.081129   .2053632                      1.678624    2.483633
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.830814   .2906726                      2.314774    3.461897
          rho |   .7089482   .0423748                      .6195825    .7846183
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best rel_aff01 claim_ideology reb_id_ethnic reb_ideology_ethnic reb
> el_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_l
> oot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -9554216.5  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5818042.7  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =   -5285267  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -3804721.9  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2482381.9  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -1115913.7  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -441853.18  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -420109.16  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -419618.47  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -419617.99  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -419617.99  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -333076.23  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6325.0004  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6193.5389  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6103.2092  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6058.6524  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6025.5984  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6024.9651  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6024.9635  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -6024.9635  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -92965.129  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -11600.501  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -9121.6749  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7610.2907  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6144.689  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5937.2559  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5785.9792  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5744.8961  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5743.1142  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5743.1069  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5743.1069  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        829
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        180

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.6
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(38)     =      95.22
Log likelihood  = -5743.1069                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .3289728   .1951537     1.69   0.092    -.0535214    .7114671
claim_ideol~y |  -.2259178   .1034732    -2.18   0.029    -.4287215   -.0231142
reb_id_ethnic |  -.3331812   .1433983    -2.32   0.020    -.6142368   -.0521256
reb_ideolog~c |   .2148831   .1377395     1.56   0.119    -.0550814    .4848477
rebel_ext_m~t |   .5171161   .2695387     1.92   0.055      -.01117    1.045402
  incomp_terr |      -.248   .1481877    -1.67   0.094    -.5384425    .0424426
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0040806   .0123749    -0.33   0.742     -.028335    .0201737
 vdem_rescale |   .0073065   .0119283     0.61   0.540    -.0160725    .0306856
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0010394   .0022802    -0.46   0.649    -.0055085    .0034297
     rcd_loot |  -.0247543   .0863756    -0.29   0.774    -.1940475    .1445388
    rcd_crime |   .3949248   .0944367     4.18   0.000     .2098323    .5800173
 active_dyads |   .0002264   .0405699     0.01   0.996    -.0792892     .079742
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000722   .0000121     5.96   0.000     .0000485    .0000959
              |
         year |
        1991  |    -.20774   .1776106    -1.17   0.242    -.5558503    .1403704
        1992  |   .1590801    .174709     0.91   0.363    -.1833433    .5015035
        1993  |  -.0419825   .1791655    -0.23   0.815    -.3931404    .3091753
        1994  |    .024001   .1770359     0.14   0.892     -.322983     .370985
        1995  |  -.1456775   .1820145    -0.80   0.424    -.5024193    .2110643
        1996  |   .0871944   .1884208     0.46   0.644    -.2821037    .4564924
        1997  |  -.0578723   .1900109    -0.30   0.761    -.4302869    .3145423
        1998  |  -.0407251   .1825326    -0.22   0.823    -.3984824    .3170322
        1999  |  -.0248087   .1828752    -0.14   0.892    -.3832375    .3336202
        2000  |  -.0240961   .1832493    -0.13   0.895    -.3832581    .3350659
        2001  |  -.2605132   .1836251    -1.42   0.156    -.6204119    .0993855
        2002  |   .0641236   .1792509     0.36   0.721    -.2872018     .415449
        2003  |  -.2209139   .1926166    -1.15   0.251    -.5984354    .1566076
        2004  |  -.0807215   .1916037    -0.42   0.674    -.4562577    .2948148
        2005  |  -.1003881   .1993544    -0.50   0.615    -.4911156    .2903394
        2006  |  -.2109184   .1927334    -1.09   0.274    -.5886689    .1668321
        2007  |  -.0536628   .1937304    -0.28   0.782    -.4333674    .3260417
        2008  |  -.0595255   .1911519    -0.31   0.755    -.4341764    .3151253
        2009  |  -.0428623   .1892947    -0.23   0.821     -.413873    .3281485
        2010  |  -.2623598   .1972814    -1.33   0.184    -.6490243    .1243048
        2011  |  -.3733573   .2020779    -1.85   0.065    -.7694227    .0227081
        2012  |  -.2619033   .2119336    -1.24   0.217    -.6772855    .1534788
        2013  |  -.3940232   .2159396    -1.82   0.068    -.8172571    .0292107
        2014  |  -.1387797   .2037807    -0.68   0.496    -.5381825     .260623
        2015  |  -.3676637   .2055963    -1.79   0.074    -.7706249    .0352976
              |
        _cons |    .439279   .3986746     1.10   0.271    -.3421089    1.220667
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0957281    .117269                     -.3255711    .1341149
        /ln_s |   4.456376   .2012337                      4.061965    4.850786
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |    .908711   .1065636                      .7221148    1.143524
            s |   86.17461   17.34123                      58.08833    127.8409
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 563.71               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best rel_aff01 claim_ideology reb_id_ethnic reb_ideology_ethnic reb
> el_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_l
> oot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -112705.32  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6406.6748  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5789.1649  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5089.3798  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -4964.303  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4652.6064  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4579.8846  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4275.7269  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4268.1338  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4268.0399  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4268.0399  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        768
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        119

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(38)     =     110.09
Log likelihood  = -4268.0399                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .4664749   .2523666     1.85   0.065    -.0281545    .9611043
claim_ideol~y |  -.3751831   .1316245    -2.85   0.004    -.6331624   -.1172039
reb_id_ethnic |  -.4365734   .1778737    -2.45   0.014    -.7851994   -.0879473
reb_ideolog~c |   .3037899   .1735276     1.75   0.080    -.0363178    .6438977
rebel_ext_m~t |    .279806   .3664879     0.76   0.445     -.438497    .9981091
  incomp_terr |  -.2773366   .1886932    -1.47   0.142    -.6471685    .0924952
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0133374   .0159626     0.84   0.403    -.0179486    .0446235
 vdem_rescale |   .0305523   .0138685     2.20   0.028     .0033705    .0577341
vdem_rescal~q |   .0003609   .0026381     0.14   0.891    -.0048097    .0055315
     rcd_loot |  -.1349727   .0938027    -1.44   0.150    -.3188226    .0488772
    rcd_crime |   .4859264   .1069992     4.54   0.000     .2762119    .6956409
 active_dyads |   .0150604   .0452533     0.33   0.739    -.0736345    .1037553
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000666   .0000138     4.82   0.000     .0000395    .0000936
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2665189   .1796665    -1.48   0.138    -.6186588    .0856211
        1992  |   .0945292   .1859087     0.51   0.611    -.2698452    .4589036
        1993  |  -.1608958   .1951948    -0.82   0.410    -.5434706    .2216789
        1994  |  -.0888069    .193993    -0.46   0.647    -.4690262    .2914124
        1995  |  -.2683286   .1967467    -1.36   0.173     -.653945    .1172877
        1996  |  -.0483834   .2018084    -0.24   0.811    -.4439206    .3471537
        1997  |  -.2381373   .2033341    -1.17   0.242    -.6366647    .1603901
        1998  |  -.2350839   .1975944    -1.19   0.234    -.6223617    .1521939
        1999  |  -.2464894   .1998549    -1.23   0.217    -.6381977     .145219
        2000  |  -.1840546   .1959787    -0.94   0.348    -.5681659    .2000567
        2001  |  -.4042341   .1948553    -2.07   0.038    -.7861435   -.0223248
        2002  |  -.0834819    .190256    -0.44   0.661    -.4563768    .2894129
        2003  |  -.3613029   .2032394    -1.78   0.075    -.7596448     .037039
        2004  |  -.2161142    .199639    -1.08   0.279    -.6073993     .175171
        2005  |  -.2627856   .2073351    -1.27   0.205     -.669155    .1435838
        2006  |  -.3646755    .204248    -1.79   0.074    -.7649943    .0356433
        2007  |  -.2213699   .2057876    -1.08   0.282    -.6247062    .1819664
        2008  |  -.2416152   .2075394    -1.16   0.244    -.6483849    .1651545
        2009  |  -.1945514   .2044756    -0.95   0.341    -.5953161    .2062134
        2010  |  -.4327779   .2136414    -2.03   0.043    -.8515072   -.0140485
        2011  |  -.5980919   .2222483    -2.69   0.007    -1.033691   -.1624931
        2012  |  -.5453274   .2295647    -2.38   0.018     -.995266   -.0953889
        2013  |  -.6552011   .2347708    -2.79   0.005    -1.115343   -.1950588
        2014  |   -.334839   .2205965    -1.52   0.129    -.7672001    .0975221
        2015  |  -.5750944   .2271122    -2.53   0.011    -1.020226   -.1299627
              |
        _cons |   .1985147    .490773     0.40   0.686    -.7633827    1.160412
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> **************************
. * Table A7-B. Determinants of Conflict Intensity – Types of Ideological Claims
>  – Monadic, ACD2EPR Data *
. ******************************************************************************
> **************************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.rel_claim_types reb_id_ethnic reb_ideology_ethnic 
> claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_r
> escale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1232.1858  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1093.4873  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.1846  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.0234  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.0233  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.0233  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1081.0233
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1021.0731
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -980.42504
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -951.29885
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -929.64192
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -913.41281
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -902.02625
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -894.40648
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -895.54332

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -895.18565  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -839.93525  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.54969  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.16597  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.15376  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.15376  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.15103  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.15103  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(77)     =     393.33
Log pseudolikelihood  = -829.15103              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |     .80753   .7127463     1.13   0.257    -.5894271    2.204487
Theologica..  |   1.688152   .8061016     2.09   0.036     .1082222    3.268082
              |
reb_id_ethnic |   .8366549   .5401912     1.55   0.121    -.2221004     1.89541
reb_ideolog~c |   .7462265   .4766098     1.57   0.117    -.1879114    1.680364
  claim_other |   .4085891   .4188186     0.98   0.329    -.4122802    1.229458
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.770141   .8475228     3.27   0.001     1.109027    4.431256
  incomp_terr |  -1.263332   .5357455    -2.36   0.018    -2.313374   -.2132899
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0599171   .0323536    -1.85   0.064    -.1233289    .0034947
 vdem_rescale |   -.015028   .0555531    -0.27   0.787      -.12391    .0938541
vdem_rescal~q |   .0087349   .0084023     1.04   0.299    -.0077333     .025203
 active_dyads |   .0793163   .1332612     0.60   0.552    -.1818708    .3405034
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.072832   1.250968    -0.86   0.391    -3.524685    1.379021
        1952  |  -1.422454   1.402965    -1.01   0.311    -4.172214    1.327307
        1953  |   .0816586   1.333212     0.06   0.951    -2.531389    2.694706
        1954  |  -3.103566   1.558387    -1.99   0.046    -6.157949    -.049183
        1955  |  -1.438372   2.098501    -0.69   0.493    -5.551359    2.674615
        1956  |   -2.34024   2.270487    -1.03   0.303    -6.790312    2.109833
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.60765    1.84542    -0.87   0.384    -5.224607    2.009306
        1959  |  -2.322646   1.963814    -1.18   0.237    -6.171651    1.526359
        1960  |  -3.132671   1.608037    -1.95   0.051    -6.284366    .0190236
        1961  |  -1.201332   1.473929    -0.82   0.415    -4.090179    1.687515
        1962  |  -.6924702   1.478147    -0.47   0.639    -3.589585    2.204645
        1963  |  -.8017161   1.491787    -0.54   0.591    -3.725565    2.122133
        1964  |  -1.690335   1.319615    -1.28   0.200    -4.276733    .8960636
        1965  |  -1.938268   1.357773    -1.43   0.153    -4.599453    .7229181
        1966  |  -1.714147   1.294882    -1.32   0.186    -4.252068     .823775
        1967  |  -1.784229   1.277484    -1.40   0.163     -4.28805    .7195932
        1968  |  -2.064384   1.226553    -1.68   0.092    -4.468385    .3396162
        1969  |  -1.754253   1.283959    -1.37   0.172    -4.270767    .7622615
        1970  |  -1.890889   1.264294    -1.50   0.135    -4.368861     .587082
        1971  |  -.9009425   1.095403    -0.82   0.411    -3.047893    1.246008
        1972  |  -2.667297   1.322345    -2.02   0.044    -5.259046   -.0755485
        1973  |  -3.332756   1.442687    -2.31   0.021     -6.16037   -.5051414
        1974  |   -1.66947   1.366247    -1.22   0.222    -4.347265    1.008325
        1975  |  -1.508005   1.315647    -1.15   0.252    -4.086627    1.070616
        1976  |  -1.289782   1.297759    -0.99   0.320    -3.833343    1.253779
        1977  |  -1.531682   1.285639    -1.19   0.234    -4.051488    .9881239
        1978  |  -.2483449   1.313533    -0.19   0.850    -2.822823    2.326133
        1979  |  -1.964331     1.2938    -1.52   0.129    -4.500134    .5714712
        1980  |  -1.630209   1.268478    -1.29   0.199     -4.11638    .8559622
        1981  |  -1.685705   1.302436    -1.29   0.196    -4.238433    .8670221
        1982  |  -1.179467   1.251472    -0.94   0.346    -3.632306    1.273372
        1983  |   -1.36964   1.276253    -1.07   0.283    -3.871049    1.131769
        1984  |  -1.127866   1.230762    -0.92   0.359    -3.540116    1.284383
        1985  |  -1.417313   1.252737    -1.13   0.258    -3.872633    1.038007
        1986  |  -1.946058   1.298215    -1.50   0.134    -4.490511    .5983961
        1987  |  -1.639182   1.271464    -1.29   0.197    -4.131206    .8528412
        1988  |  -.9072748   1.265083    -0.72   0.473    -3.386792    1.572243
        1989  |  -2.548396   1.289318    -1.98   0.048    -5.075412   -.0213803
        1990  |  -2.261196   1.308356    -1.73   0.084    -4.825528    .3031352
        1991  |  -2.475285   1.304935    -1.90   0.058     -5.03291    .0823407
        1992  |  -1.708944   1.327127    -1.29   0.198    -4.310065     .892177
        1993  |  -2.429147   1.334469    -1.82   0.069    -5.044658    .1863644
        1994  |  -2.220456   1.405169    -1.58   0.114    -4.974538    .5336252
        1995  |  -2.310916   1.381434    -1.67   0.094    -5.018476    .3966438
        1996  |  -2.485049   1.356933    -1.83   0.067    -5.144588    .1744902
        1997  |  -2.523427   1.325628    -1.90   0.057    -5.121611    .0747562
        1998  |  -1.622242   1.323979    -1.23   0.220    -4.217194      .97271
        1999  |   -1.66641   1.351548    -1.23   0.218    -4.315395    .9825751
        2000  |  -2.347107   1.350481    -1.74   0.082    -4.994002    .2997878
        2001  |  -3.187669   1.327215    -2.40   0.016    -5.788963   -.5863761
        2002  |  -2.110521   1.445457    -1.46   0.144    -4.943565    .7225227
        2003  |  -3.188356   1.669065    -1.91   0.056    -6.459663    .0829513
        2004  |  -1.998798   1.488945    -1.34   0.179    -4.917077    .9194805
        2005  |  -2.776555   1.540557    -1.80   0.071    -5.795991    .2428807
        2006  |  -4.045677   1.385839    -2.92   0.004    -6.761873   -1.329482
        2007  |  -3.692375   1.480561    -2.49   0.013     -6.59422    -.790529
        2008  |  -3.563428   1.340111    -2.66   0.008    -6.189997   -.9368585
        2009  |  -3.231954   1.357066    -2.38   0.017    -5.891754   -.5721545
        2010  |  -3.800812   1.329766    -2.86   0.004    -6.407106   -1.194518
        2011  |  -3.255467   1.426886    -2.28   0.023    -6.052112   -.4588215
        2012  |  -3.692534   1.555752    -2.37   0.018    -6.741751   -.6433169
        2013  |  -3.195128   1.327032    -2.41   0.016    -5.796064    -.594193
        2014  |  -2.175417   1.376747    -1.58   0.114    -4.873792    .5229572
        2015  |  -2.970307   1.377257    -2.16   0.031    -5.669681   -.2709342
        2016  |  -3.882911   1.488258    -2.61   0.009    -6.799843   -.9659797
        2017  |  -3.306965   1.442391    -2.29   0.022    -6.133999   -.4799312
              |
        _cons |  -2.325653   1.440431    -1.61   0.106    -5.148847    .4975409
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.015615   .1896631                      1.643882    2.387348
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.739588   .2597993                      2.274911     3.29918
          rho |   .6952474   .0401855                      .6113605    .7679016
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.rel_claim_types reb_id_ethnic reb_ideology_ethnic 
> claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_r
> escale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robu
> st)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1232.1858  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1093.4873  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.1846  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.0234  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.0233  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.0233  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1081.0233
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1021.0731
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -980.42504
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -951.29885
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -929.64192
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -913.41281
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -902.02625
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -894.40648
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -895.54332

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -895.18565  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -839.93525  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.54969  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.16597  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.15376  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.15376  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.15103  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.15103  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(77)     =     393.33
Log pseudolikelihood  = -829.15103              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |     .80753   .7127463     1.13   0.257    -.5894271    2.204487
Theologica..  |   1.688152   .8061016     2.09   0.036     .1082222    3.268082
              |
reb_id_ethnic |   .8366549   .5401912     1.55   0.121    -.2221004     1.89541
reb_ideolog~c |   .7462265   .4766098     1.57   0.117    -.1879114    1.680364
  claim_other |   .4085891   .4188186     0.98   0.329    -.4122802    1.229458
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.770141   .8475228     3.27   0.001     1.109027    4.431256
  incomp_terr |  -1.263332   .5357455    -2.36   0.018    -2.313374   -.2132899
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0599171   .0323536    -1.85   0.064    -.1233289    .0034947
 vdem_rescale |   -.015028   .0555531    -0.27   0.787      -.12391    .0938541
vdem_rescal~q |   .0087349   .0084023     1.04   0.299    -.0077333     .025203
 active_dyads |   .0793163   .1332612     0.60   0.552    -.1818708    .3405034
post_cold_war |  -3.306965   1.442391    -2.29   0.022    -6.133999   -.4799312
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.072832   1.250968    -0.86   0.391    -3.524685    1.379021
        1952  |  -1.422454   1.402965    -1.01   0.311    -4.172214    1.327307
        1953  |   .0816586   1.333212     0.06   0.951    -2.531389    2.694706
        1954  |  -3.103566   1.558387    -1.99   0.046    -6.157949    -.049183
        1955  |  -1.438372   2.098501    -0.69   0.493    -5.551359    2.674615
        1956  |   -2.34024   2.270487    -1.03   0.303    -6.790312    2.109833
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.60765    1.84542    -0.87   0.384    -5.224607    2.009306
        1959  |  -2.322646   1.963814    -1.18   0.237    -6.171651    1.526359
        1960  |  -3.132671   1.608037    -1.95   0.051    -6.284366    .0190236
        1961  |  -1.201332   1.473929    -0.82   0.415    -4.090179    1.687515
        1962  |  -.6924702   1.478147    -0.47   0.639    -3.589585    2.204645
        1963  |  -.8017161   1.491787    -0.54   0.591    -3.725565    2.122133
        1964  |  -1.690335   1.319615    -1.28   0.200    -4.276733    .8960636
        1965  |  -1.938268   1.357773    -1.43   0.153    -4.599453    .7229181
        1966  |  -1.714147   1.294882    -1.32   0.186    -4.252068     .823775
        1967  |  -1.784229   1.277484    -1.40   0.163     -4.28805    .7195932
        1968  |  -2.064384   1.226553    -1.68   0.092    -4.468385    .3396162
        1969  |  -1.754253   1.283959    -1.37   0.172    -4.270767    .7622615
        1970  |  -1.890889   1.264294    -1.50   0.135    -4.368861     .587082
        1971  |  -.9009425   1.095403    -0.82   0.411    -3.047893    1.246008
        1972  |  -2.667297   1.322345    -2.02   0.044    -5.259046   -.0755485
        1973  |  -3.332756   1.442687    -2.31   0.021     -6.16037   -.5051414
        1974  |   -1.66947   1.366247    -1.22   0.222    -4.347265    1.008325
        1975  |  -1.508005   1.315647    -1.15   0.252    -4.086627    1.070616
        1976  |  -1.289782   1.297759    -0.99   0.320    -3.833343    1.253779
        1977  |  -1.531682   1.285639    -1.19   0.234    -4.051488    .9881239
        1978  |  -.2483449   1.313533    -0.19   0.850    -2.822823    2.326133
        1979  |  -1.964331     1.2938    -1.52   0.129    -4.500134    .5714712
        1980  |  -1.630209   1.268478    -1.29   0.199     -4.11638    .8559622
        1981  |  -1.685705   1.302436    -1.29   0.196    -4.238433    .8670221
        1982  |  -1.179467   1.251472    -0.94   0.346    -3.632306    1.273372
        1983  |   -1.36964   1.276253    -1.07   0.283    -3.871049    1.131769
        1984  |  -1.127866   1.230762    -0.92   0.359    -3.540116    1.284383
        1985  |  -1.417313   1.252737    -1.13   0.258    -3.872633    1.038007
        1986  |  -1.946058   1.298215    -1.50   0.134    -4.490511    .5983961
        1987  |  -1.639182   1.271464    -1.29   0.197    -4.131206    .8528412
        1988  |  -.9072748   1.265083    -0.72   0.473    -3.386792    1.572243
        1989  |  -2.548396   1.289318    -1.98   0.048    -5.075412   -.0213803
        1990  |  -2.261196   1.308356    -1.73   0.084    -4.825528    .3031352
        1991  |   .8316805   .9417973     0.88   0.377    -1.014208    2.677569
        1992  |   1.598021    .952258     1.68   0.093    -.2683702    3.464413
        1993  |   .8778183   1.017112     0.86   0.388    -1.115685    2.871322
        1994  |   1.086509   1.095238     0.99   0.321    -1.060117    3.233135
        1995  |    .996049   1.038405     0.96   0.337    -1.039188    3.031286
        1996  |   .8219165   1.026767     0.80   0.423    -1.190509    2.834342
        1997  |   .7835379   .9633185     0.81   0.416    -1.104532    2.671608
        1998  |   1.684723   .9466895     1.78   0.075    -.1707541      3.5402
        1999  |   1.640555    .950191     1.73   0.084    -.2217849    3.502895
        2000  |   .9598584   .9924472     0.97   0.333    -.9853023    2.905019
        2001  |    .119296   .9402284     0.13   0.899    -1.723518     1.96211
        2002  |   1.196444   1.073628     1.11   0.265    -.9078274    3.300715
        2003  |   .1186097   1.446299     0.08   0.935    -2.716084    2.953303
        2004  |   1.308167   1.224912     1.07   0.286    -1.092616     3.70895
        2005  |     .53041   1.148604     0.46   0.644    -1.720813    2.781633
        2006  |   -.738712   .8721673    -0.85   0.397    -2.448128    .9707045
        2007  |  -.3854092   .8349586    -0.46   0.644    -2.021898     1.25108
        2008  |  -.2564625   .9170999    -0.28   0.780    -2.053945     1.54102
        2009  |   .0750108   .9991183     0.08   0.940    -1.883225    2.033247
        2010  |  -.4938468   .9409626    -0.52   0.600      -2.3381    1.350406
        2011  |   .0514983   1.076694     0.05   0.962    -2.058784     2.16178
        2012  |  -.3855687   1.259731    -0.31   0.760    -2.854597    2.083459
        2013  |   .1118369   .7962935     0.14   0.888     -1.44887    1.672543
        2014  |   1.131548   .8281461     1.37   0.172    -.4915887    2.754684
        2015  |   .3366579   .8520543     0.40   0.693    -1.333338    2.006654
        2016  |  -.5759459   .9350585    -0.62   0.538    -2.408627    1.256735
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -2.325653   1.440431    -1.61   0.106    -5.148847    .4975409
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.015615   .1896631                      1.643882    2.387348
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.739588   .2597993                      2.274911     3.29918
          rho |   .6952474   .0401855                      .6113605    .7679016
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.rel_claim_types c.reb_id_ethnic c.
> reb_ideology_ethnic c.claim_other) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_ln
> GDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0,
>  vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1232.1858  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1085.3884  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1070.8219  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1070.5436  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1070.5426  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1070.5426  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1070.5426
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1013.9729
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -975.56259
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -947.93234
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -927.24263
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -911.79029
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -900.85241
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -894.15199
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -896.02329

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -894.80455  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.86571  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -825.80667  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -825.36067  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -825.34097  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -825.3409  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -825.33704  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -825.33704  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(82)     =     511.71
Log pseudolikelihood  = -825.33704              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -2.540744   2.051096    -1.24   0.215    -6.560818     1.47933
              |
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |    .803322   .6971042     1.15   0.249    -.5629771    2.169621
Theologica..  |   2.586874    .991517     2.61   0.009      .643536    4.530211
              |
reb_id_ethnic |   1.401125    .812816     1.72   0.085     -.191965    2.994215
reb_ideolog~c |   .4989205    .644594     0.77   0.439    -.7644605    1.762302
  claim_other |   .7496308   .5396996     1.39   0.165     -.308161    1.807423
              |
post_cold_war#|
rel_claim_t~s |
           1 #|
Religious ..  |   .1379901   .9512528     0.15   0.885    -1.726431    2.002411
           1 #|
Theologica..  |  -1.118475   1.211411    -0.92   0.356    -3.492797    1.255847
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
reb_id_ethnic |
           1  |  -1.229527   1.184483    -1.04   0.299     -3.55107    1.092016
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
reb_ideolog~c |
           1  |    .597976   .8271525     0.72   0.470    -1.023213    2.219165
              |
post_cold_war#|
c.claim_other |
           1  |  -.7955859   .8507462    -0.94   0.350    -2.463018    .8718461
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.771514   .8445189     3.28   0.001     1.116287    4.426741
  incomp_terr |  -1.272704    .545303    -2.33   0.020    -2.341478   -.2039296
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0543884   .0334927    -1.62   0.104    -.1200328     .011256
 vdem_rescale |  -.0357495   .0509701    -0.70   0.483    -.1356491    .0641501
vdem_rescal~q |   .0074742   .0082504     0.91   0.365    -.0086964    .0236447
 active_dyads |   .0134163   .1238507     0.11   0.914    -.2293267    .2561592
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.046902   1.241128    -0.84   0.399    -3.479467    1.385664
        1952  |  -1.380856   1.403901    -0.98   0.325    -4.132451     1.37074
        1953  |   .0589856   1.286565     0.05   0.963    -2.462635    2.580606
        1954  |   -3.17767   1.565915    -2.03   0.042    -6.246808   -.1085327
        1955  |  -1.475788   2.195355    -0.67   0.501    -5.778606    2.827029
        1956  |  -2.413662   2.299912    -1.05   0.294    -6.921408    2.094084
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.657193   1.875035    -0.88   0.377    -5.332195    2.017808
        1959  |  -2.388949   1.990514    -1.20   0.230    -6.290284    1.512387
        1960  |  -3.213666   1.611839    -1.99   0.046    -6.372812   -.0545207
        1961  |  -1.349065    1.47737    -0.91   0.361    -4.244656    1.546526
        1962  |  -.8709721   1.484447    -0.59   0.557    -3.780436    2.038491
        1963  |  -.9912855   1.491047    -0.66   0.506    -3.913685    1.931114
        1964  |  -1.899549   1.315727    -1.44   0.149    -4.478326    .6792285
        1965  |  -2.181659   1.347295    -1.62   0.105    -4.822309    .4589911
        1966  |  -1.925927   1.281962    -1.50   0.133    -4.438527    .5866734
        1967  |  -1.997894    1.25971    -1.59   0.113    -4.466881    .4710923
        1968  |  -2.291128   1.211684    -1.89   0.059    -4.665985    .0837296
        1969  |  -1.960186   1.260317    -1.56   0.120    -4.430361    .5099897
        1970  |  -2.096472    1.24474    -1.68   0.092    -4.536118    .3431738
        1971  |  -1.091178   1.080131    -1.01   0.312    -3.208197     1.02584
        1972  |  -2.900838   1.292332    -2.24   0.025    -5.433762   -.3679132
        1973  |   -3.58956   1.413306    -2.54   0.011    -6.359588   -.8195318
        1974  |  -1.879216   1.338528    -1.40   0.160    -4.502682    .7442503
        1975  |  -1.727091   1.289374    -1.34   0.180    -4.254218    .8000357
        1976  |  -1.507109   1.278243    -1.18   0.238     -4.01242    .9982025
        1977  |  -1.757976   1.269817    -1.38   0.166    -4.246772      .73082
        1978  |   -.464866   1.296929    -0.36   0.720      -3.0068    2.077068
        1979  |  -2.243841   1.285472    -1.75   0.081    -4.763319    .2756381
        1980  |  -1.920319    1.26133    -1.52   0.128    -4.392481    .5518425
        1981  |  -1.975539   1.302308    -1.52   0.129    -4.528016    .5769376
        1982  |  -1.469107   1.253034    -1.17   0.241    -3.925007    .9867939
        1983  |  -1.665342   1.283109    -1.30   0.194    -4.180189    .8495048
        1984  |   -1.41409   1.230056    -1.15   0.250    -3.824955    .9967753
        1985  |  -1.722504   1.243626    -1.39   0.166    -4.159966    .7149581
        1986  |  -2.253523   1.314072    -1.71   0.086    -4.829056    .3220102
        1987  |   -1.93569   1.280089    -1.51   0.130    -4.444617    .5732375
        1988  |  -1.201512   1.258671    -0.95   0.340    -3.668461    1.265438
        1989  |  -2.968034   1.306938    -2.27   0.023    -5.529585   -.4064833
        1990  |  -2.568761   1.333356    -1.93   0.054    -5.182092    .0445695
        1991  |   1.039089   .9348816     1.11   0.266    -.7932456    2.871423
        1992  |   1.740599   .9581779     1.82   0.069    -.1373955    3.618593
        1993  |   1.032123   1.014325     1.02   0.309    -.9559175    3.020164
        1994  |    1.22246   1.093865     1.12   0.264    -.9214757    3.366397
        1995  |   1.171992   1.018636     1.15   0.250    -.8244977    3.168481
        1996  |   1.034417   1.006519     1.03   0.304    -.9383238    3.007157
        1997  |   .9568776   .9571276     1.00   0.317     -.919058    2.832813
        1998  |    1.84533   .9380135     1.97   0.049      .006857    3.683803
        1999  |   1.809947   .9518987     1.90   0.057    -.0557403    3.675634
        2000  |   1.123994   1.001234     1.12   0.262    -.8383885    3.086377
        2001  |   .2857227   .9565545     0.30   0.765     -1.58909    2.160535
        2002  |   1.346014   1.081679     1.24   0.213    -.7740383    3.466066
        2003  |   .2747767   1.432882     0.19   0.848     -2.53362    3.083173
        2004  |   1.427198   1.209144     1.18   0.238    -.9426804    3.797076
        2005  |   .6177013   1.158056     0.53   0.594    -1.652047     2.88745
        2006  |  -.6126723   .8634528    -0.71   0.478    -2.305009    1.079664
        2007  |  -.2491914   .8361637    -0.30   0.766    -1.888042    1.389659
        2008  |  -.1249549   .9021557    -0.14   0.890    -1.893148    1.643238
        2009  |   .1767123    1.00866     0.18   0.861    -1.800225     2.15365
        2010  |  -.3540286   .9372651    -0.38   0.706    -2.191035    1.482977
        2011  |   .1568858    1.07842     0.15   0.884    -1.956779    2.270551
        2012  |  -.3620701   1.265108    -0.29   0.775    -2.841636    2.117496
        2013  |   .1657574    .790113     0.21   0.834    -1.382836     1.71435
        2014  |   1.160255   .8302423     1.40   0.162    -.4669897      2.7875
        2015  |   .3640977   .8386345     0.43   0.664    -1.279596    2.007791
        2016  |   -.585495   .9270777    -0.63   0.528    -2.402534    1.231544
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -2.785851   1.570137    -1.77   0.076    -5.863262    .2915601
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.058894   .2068543                      1.653467    2.464321
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.799518   .2895461                       2.28584    3.428629
          rho |   .7043391   .0430765                      .6136355    .7813368
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.rel_claim_types reb_id_ethnic reb_ideology_ethnic claim_othe
> r rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq 
> rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -9428282.2  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6223738.6  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5388799.5  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2944491.3  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1746599.1  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -842676.22  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -472668.62  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -413668.83  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -412752.29  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -412750.03  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -412750.03  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -333076.23  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6325.0004  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6193.5389  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6103.1018  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -6085.663  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6016.8947  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6014.373  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6014.3636  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -6014.3636  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -91202.596  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10682.252  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7996.5555  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6693.8866  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6108.0706  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5941.1889  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5811.3757  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5742.7071  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5739.1266  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood =  -5739.106  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood =  -5739.106  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        829
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        180

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.6
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(39)     =     103.08
Log likelihood  =  -5739.106                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |     .27384   .1961709     1.40   0.163    -.1106479    .6583278
Theologica..  |   .2297364   .2136529     1.08   0.282    -.1890155    .6484883
              |
reb_id_ethnic |  -.4063272    .145074    -2.80   0.005     -.690667   -.1219873
reb_ideolog~c |   .2104439   .1367877     1.54   0.124    -.0576549    .4785428
  claim_other |  -.3760523   .1153352    -3.26   0.001    -.6021051   -.1499995
rebel_ext_m~t |   .5604654   .2690707     2.08   0.037     .0330965    1.087834
  incomp_terr |  -.2887317   .1478748    -1.95   0.051    -.5785609    .0010976
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0021697    .012444    -0.17   0.862    -.0265595      .02222
 vdem_rescale |   .0087843   .0119978     0.73   0.464    -.0147309    .0322995
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0000754   .0023014    -0.03   0.974    -.0045861    .0044352
     rcd_loot |  -.0351664    .085617    -0.41   0.681    -.2029727    .1326398
    rcd_crime |   .4269819   .0947961     4.50   0.000      .241185    .6127788
 active_dyads |  -.0294177   .0419492    -0.70   0.483    -.1116366    .0528012
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000764   .0000122     6.28   0.000     .0000526    .0001003
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2204702   .1791425    -1.23   0.218    -.5715831    .1306427
        1992  |   .1440838   .1760697     0.82   0.413    -.2010064    .4891741
        1993  |  -.0339431   .1799534    -0.19   0.850    -.3866454    .3187592
        1994  |  -.0035886   .1783735    -0.02   0.984    -.3531942    .3460171
        1995  |  -.1545751   .1823892    -0.85   0.397    -.5120514    .2029013
        1996  |   .0427275   .1898472     0.23   0.822    -.3293663    .4148213
        1997  |   -.062695   .1904745    -0.33   0.742    -.4360181    .3106282
        1998  |  -.0513213   .1830519    -0.28   0.779    -.4100964    .3074538
        1999  |  -.0321949   .1832835    -0.18   0.861    -.3914238    .3270341
        2000  |  -.0378027   .1840862    -0.21   0.837    -.3986049    .3229996
        2001  |   -.290983   .1851462    -1.57   0.116    -.6538629    .0718969
        2002  |   .0468577   .1803101     0.26   0.795    -.3065436     .400259
        2003  |  -.2132033   .1925051    -1.11   0.268    -.5905064    .1640999
        2004  |  -.1125139   .1928692    -0.58   0.560    -.4905305    .2655027
        2005  |  -.1485951   .2004974    -0.74   0.459    -.5415627    .2443725
        2006  |  -.2233761   .1933644    -1.16   0.248    -.6023634    .1556113
        2007  |  -.0738705   .1942957    -0.38   0.704     -.454683    .3069421
        2008  |   -.080333   .1913748    -0.42   0.675    -.4554208    .2947547
        2009  |  -.0604388     .18918    -0.32   0.749    -.4312248    .3103473
        2010  |  -.3153605   .1984956    -1.59   0.112    -.7044048    .0736838
        2011  |  -.4183193   .2026477    -2.06   0.039    -.8155016   -.0211371
        2012  |   -.311952   .2120377    -1.47   0.141    -.7275383    .1036342
        2013  |  -.4205812   .2144308    -1.96   0.050    -.8408578   -.0003047
        2014  |  -.1593766   .2018888    -0.79   0.430    -.5550714    .2363182
        2015  |  -.3953108   .2039767    -1.94   0.053    -.7950977    .0044761
              |
        _cons |    .554411   .4027251     1.38   0.169    -.2349156    1.343738
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0694203   .1188259                     -.3023147    .1634742
        /ln_s |   4.515968   .2020777                      4.119903    4.912033
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9329345   .1108568                      .7391054    1.177595
            s |   91.46605   18.48325                      61.55327    135.9154
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 550.52               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.rel_claim_types reb_id_ethnic reb_ideology_ethnic claim_othe
> r rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq 
> rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -167839.56  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10558.043  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6803.8398  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6260.2057  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5383.6939  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5350.2007  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5037.9777  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4644.0715  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4345.7893  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4267.1433  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4265.5388  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -4265.5309  
Iteration 12:  log likelihood = -4265.5309  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        768
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        119

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(39)     =     115.09
Log likelihood  = -4265.5309                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |     .42892   .2528506     1.70   0.090    -.0666581     .924498
Theologica..  |   .2471331    .270175     0.91   0.360    -.2824003    .7766664
              |
reb_id_ethnic |  -.5226794   .1802343    -2.90   0.004    -.8759322   -.1694267
reb_ideolog~c |   .2913269   .1724733     1.69   0.091    -.0467145    .6293683
  claim_other |  -.5235018   .1503383    -3.48   0.000    -.8181595   -.2288441
rebel_ext_m~t |   .2839563   .3725297     0.76   0.446    -.4461885    1.014101
  incomp_terr |  -.3099331    .188367    -1.65   0.100    -.6791257    .0592595
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0155185   .0161059     0.96   0.335    -.0160485    .0470855
 vdem_rescale |   .0346773   .0139808     2.48   0.013     .0072755    .0620791
vdem_rescal~q |    .001674   .0026989     0.62   0.535    -.0036158    .0069638
     rcd_loot |  -.1424435   .0926824    -1.54   0.124    -.3240978    .0392107
    rcd_crime |   .5127154   .1073961     4.77   0.000      .302223    .7232079
 active_dyads |  -.0169791   .0470875    -0.36   0.718     -.109269    .0753108
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000715    .000014     5.11   0.000     .0000441     .000099
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2844619   .1815682    -1.57   0.117    -.6403291    .0714052
        1992  |   .0772748   .1883307     0.41   0.682    -.2918466    .4463962
        1993  |  -.1628397   .1975646    -0.82   0.410    -.5500593    .2243798
        1994  |   -.122278   .1962618    -0.62   0.533    -.5069441    .2623882
        1995  |  -.2833293    .198127    -1.43   0.153    -.6716511    .1049926
        1996  |  -.0914299   .2040811    -0.45   0.654    -.4914215    .3085617
        1997  |  -.2435915   .2043806    -1.19   0.233    -.6441702    .1569871
        1998  |  -.2533358   .1992816    -1.27   0.204    -.6439205    .1372489
        1999  |   -.263292   .2016389    -1.31   0.192     -.658497    .1319131
        2000  |  -.1885705   .1976258    -0.95   0.340    -.5759099    .1987689
        2001  |  -.4220792    .196926    -2.14   0.032    -.8080471   -.0361114
        2002  |  -.0968956   .1921476    -0.50   0.614     -.473498    .2797068
        2003  |  -.3482489   .2038398    -1.71   0.088    -.7477677    .0512698
        2004  |  -.2417324   .2017484    -1.20   0.231     -.637152    .1536872
        2005  |  -.3111605   .2096852    -1.48   0.138    -.7221361     .099815
        2006  |  -.3722393   .2057964    -1.81   0.070    -.7755927    .0311142
        2007  |  -.2393707   .2073564    -1.15   0.248    -.6457818    .1670404
        2008  |  -.2598885     .20868    -1.25   0.213    -.6688938    .1491169
        2009  |  -.2137645   .2055448    -1.04   0.298    -.6166248    .1890959
        2010  |  -.4767289   .2156251    -2.21   0.027    -.8993463   -.0541115
        2011  |  -.6283716   .2232598    -2.81   0.005    -1.065953   -.1907905
        2012  |  -.5933178   .2305476    -2.57   0.010    -1.045183   -.1414528
        2013  |  -.6693719   .2340263    -2.86   0.004    -1.128055   -.2106887
        2014  |   -.340718   .2190942    -1.56   0.120    -.7701347    .0886987
        2015  |  -.5934843   .2260141    -2.63   0.009    -1.036464   -.1505048
              |
        _cons |   .2976889   .4963193     0.60   0.549    -.6750792    1.270457
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> **********************************
. * Table A8-B. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Specific Types of Ideologic
> al Claim – Monadic, ACD2EPR Data *
. ******************************************************************************
> **********************************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type reb_id_ethnic reb_
> ideology_ethnic claim_communist claim_libdem rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr
>  side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucd
> p_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1232.1858  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.2456  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1069.6855  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1069.4947  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1069.4946  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1069.4946  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1069.4946
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1011.6458
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -972.56481
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -944.61299
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -923.84509
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood =  -908.3569
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood =  -898.0017
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -891.42285
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -894.33193

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -891.60309  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -837.8074  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -827.1741  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.81692  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.80581  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.80581  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.80517  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.80517  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(80)     =     412.19
Log pseudolikelihood  = -826.80517              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .8513646   .5828991     1.46   0.144    -.2910967    1.993826
Christian-~l  |    .330887   .9722718     0.34   0.734    -1.574731    2.236505
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .8702418   .5740873     1.52   0.130    -.2549486    1.995432
Muslim-The~l  |   1.687726   .6795257     2.48   0.013     .3558804    3.019572
              |
reb_id_ethnic |   .9787383   .5288969     1.85   0.064    -.0578806    2.015357
reb_ideolog~c |   .9434396   .5043275     1.87   0.061    -.0450241    1.931903
claim_commu~t |   .8507069   .5395437     1.58   0.115    -.2067792    1.908193
 claim_libdem |  -.4357707    .575417    -0.76   0.449    -1.563567    .6920259
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.790128   .8569673     3.26   0.001     1.110503    4.469753
  incomp_terr |  -1.352418   .5398693    -2.51   0.012    -2.410543    -.294294
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.059927   .0323023    -1.86   0.064    -.1232383    .0033844
 vdem_rescale |  -.0232058   .0572169    -0.41   0.685    -.1353488    .0889372
vdem_rescal~q |   .0093861   .0083506     1.12   0.261    -.0069808    .0257529
 active_dyads |    .079256   .1335163     0.59   0.553    -.1824311    .3409432
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.021053    1.23246    -0.83   0.407    -3.436629    1.394524
        1952  |  -1.309251   1.387205    -0.94   0.345    -4.028122     1.40962
        1953  |   .0684413   1.307626     0.05   0.958    -2.494459    2.631341
        1954  |   -3.22303   1.553968    -2.07   0.038     -6.26875   -.1773092
        1955  |  -1.546309   2.198843    -0.70   0.482    -5.855963    2.763345
        1956  |  -2.416344   2.292178    -1.05   0.292     -6.90893    2.076241
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.792576   1.833337    -0.98   0.328    -5.385852    1.800699
        1959  |   -2.37822   1.958831    -1.21   0.225    -6.217458    1.461018
        1960  |  -3.211358   1.587676    -2.02   0.043    -6.323146   -.0995701
        1961  |  -1.314918   1.460802    -0.90   0.368    -4.178037    1.548202
        1962  |  -.8471636    1.46786    -0.58   0.564    -3.724116    2.029789
        1963  |  -.9574855   1.486076    -0.64   0.519    -3.870142    1.955171
        1964  |  -1.914625    1.30271    -1.47   0.142     -4.46789    .6386398
        1965  |  -2.195708   1.338414    -1.64   0.101    -4.818951     .427535
        1966  |   -1.90462   1.274067    -1.49   0.135    -4.401744    .5925045
        1967  |  -1.992263   1.253221    -1.59   0.112    -4.448532    .4640054
        1968  |  -2.268394   1.200371    -1.89   0.059    -4.621078    .0842902
        1969  |  -1.958811    1.25868    -1.56   0.120    -4.425779    .5081569
        1970  |   -2.10112   1.237631    -1.70   0.090    -4.526832    .3245925
        1971  |  -1.124628   1.087395    -1.03   0.301    -3.255882    1.006627
        1972  |  -2.892648    1.29363    -2.24   0.025    -5.428116   -.3571804
        1973  |  -3.548017    1.41945    -2.50   0.012    -6.330088   -.7659464
        1974  |  -1.895026   1.341056    -1.41   0.158    -4.523447    .7333949
        1975  |  -1.746309   1.286616    -1.36   0.175     -4.26803    .7754111
        1976  |  -1.547476   1.280855    -1.21   0.227    -4.057907    .9629544
        1977  |  -1.781461   1.271469    -1.40   0.161    -4.273495     .710573
        1978  |  -.4878972   1.295924    -0.38   0.707    -3.027862    2.052067
        1979  |  -2.216537    1.28397    -1.73   0.084    -4.733072     .299998
        1980  |  -1.862248   1.260579    -1.48   0.140    -4.332937    .6084415
        1981  |  -1.922618   1.295822    -1.48   0.138    -4.462382    .6171461
        1982  |  -1.413739   1.239756    -1.14   0.254    -3.843615    1.016138
        1983  |  -1.585693    1.27092    -1.25   0.212     -4.07665     .905264
        1984  |  -1.346144   1.224269    -1.10   0.272    -3.745667    1.053379
        1985  |  -1.619281   1.247309    -1.30   0.194    -4.063962    .8253991
        1986  |  -2.141429   1.284857    -1.67   0.096    -4.659703    .3768448
        1987  |    -1.7883   1.259565    -1.42   0.156    -4.257002    .6804016
        1988  |  -1.040935   1.252023    -0.83   0.406    -3.494855    1.412986
        1989  |  -2.713677   1.283418    -2.11   0.034    -5.229131    -.198223
        1990  |   -2.41659   1.304884    -1.85   0.064    -4.974116    .1409352
        1991  |  -2.640104   1.294422    -2.04   0.041    -5.177124    -.103084
        1992  |  -1.848374   1.317086    -1.40   0.161    -4.429814     .733066
        1993  |  -2.584841   1.318924    -1.96   0.050    -5.169884    .0002033
        1994  |  -2.379476     1.3885    -1.71   0.087    -5.100885     .341933
        1995  |  -2.457313   1.363271    -1.80   0.071    -5.129275    .2146489
        1996  |  -2.610527   1.334486    -1.96   0.050    -5.226072    .0050177
        1997  |  -2.614601   1.301101    -2.01   0.044    -5.164712   -.0644903
        1998  |  -1.710179   1.303595    -1.31   0.190    -4.265179     .844821
        1999  |  -1.763943   1.329119    -1.33   0.184    -4.368969    .8410834
        2000  |  -2.470821   1.326957    -1.86   0.063     -5.07161    .1299671
        2001  |  -3.313279   1.327607    -2.50   0.013    -5.915341    -.711216
        2002  |  -2.217058   1.422465    -1.56   0.119    -5.005039    .5709223
        2003  |  -3.309244   1.639906    -2.02   0.044    -6.523401   -.0950873
        2004  |  -2.157891   1.463115    -1.47   0.140    -5.025544    .7097612
        2005  |  -2.925121   1.521912    -1.92   0.055    -5.908014    .0577728
        2006  |  -4.162522   1.385902    -3.00   0.003    -6.878841   -1.446204
        2007  |  -3.813976   1.480338    -2.58   0.010    -6.715385   -.9125664
        2008  |  -3.685509   1.333601    -2.76   0.006    -6.299319   -1.071698
        2009  |  -3.359195   1.350807    -2.49   0.013    -6.006729   -.7116622
        2010  |  -3.921335   1.313107    -2.99   0.003    -6.494977   -1.347693
        2011  |  -3.359949   1.414528    -2.38   0.018    -6.132373   -.5875247
        2012  |  -3.828238   1.541666    -2.48   0.013    -6.849848   -.8066291
        2013  |  -3.307521   1.309651    -2.53   0.012    -5.874389   -.7406531
        2014  |  -2.290129   1.369373    -1.67   0.094    -4.974051    .3937927
        2015  |  -3.090403   1.354518    -2.28   0.023    -5.745211   -.4355957
        2016  |  -4.020931   1.460518    -2.75   0.006    -6.883494   -1.158369
        2017  |  -3.433784   1.434095    -2.39   0.017    -6.244558   -.6230098
              |
        _cons |  -2.245378   1.304455    -1.72   0.085    -4.802064    .3113078
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |    1.99625   .1935911                      1.616818    2.375681
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.713189   .2626247                      2.244334    3.279991
          rho |   .6911289   .0413259                       .604911    .7658158
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type reb_id_ethnic reb_
> ideology_ethnic claim_communist claim_libdem rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr
>  side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i.year i
> f obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1232.1858  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.2456  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1069.6855  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1069.4947  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1069.4946  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1069.4946  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1069.4946
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1011.6458
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -972.56481
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -944.61299
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -923.84509
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood =  -908.3569
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood =  -898.0017
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -891.42285
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -894.33193

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -891.60309  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -837.8074  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -827.1741  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.81692  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.80581  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.80581  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.80517  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.80517  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(80)     =     412.19
Log pseudolikelihood  = -826.80517              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .8513646   .5828991     1.46   0.144    -.2910967    1.993826
Christian-~l  |    .330887   .9722718     0.34   0.734    -1.574731    2.236505
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .8702418   .5740873     1.52   0.130    -.2549486    1.995432
Muslim-The~l  |   1.687726   .6795257     2.48   0.013     .3558804    3.019572
              |
reb_id_ethnic |   .9787383   .5288969     1.85   0.064    -.0578806    2.015357
reb_ideolog~c |   .9434396   .5043275     1.87   0.061    -.0450241    1.931903
claim_commu~t |   .8507069   .5395437     1.58   0.115    -.2067792    1.908193
 claim_libdem |  -.4357707    .575417    -0.76   0.449    -1.563567    .6920259
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.790128   .8569673     3.26   0.001     1.110503    4.469753
  incomp_terr |  -1.352418   .5398693    -2.51   0.012    -2.410543    -.294294
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.059927   .0323023    -1.86   0.064    -.1232383    .0033844
 vdem_rescale |  -.0232058   .0572169    -0.41   0.685    -.1353488    .0889372
vdem_rescal~q |   .0093861   .0083506     1.12   0.261    -.0069808    .0257529
 active_dyads |    .079256   .1335163     0.59   0.553    -.1824311    .3409432
post_cold_war |  -3.433784   1.434095    -2.39   0.017    -6.244558   -.6230098
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.021053    1.23246    -0.83   0.407    -3.436629    1.394524
        1952  |  -1.309251   1.387205    -0.94   0.345    -4.028122     1.40962
        1953  |   .0684413   1.307626     0.05   0.958    -2.494459    2.631341
        1954  |   -3.22303   1.553968    -2.07   0.038     -6.26875   -.1773092
        1955  |  -1.546309   2.198843    -0.70   0.482    -5.855963    2.763345
        1956  |  -2.416344   2.292178    -1.05   0.292     -6.90893    2.076241
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.792576   1.833337    -0.98   0.328    -5.385852    1.800699
        1959  |   -2.37822   1.958831    -1.21   0.225    -6.217458    1.461018
        1960  |  -3.211358   1.587676    -2.02   0.043    -6.323146   -.0995701
        1961  |  -1.314918   1.460802    -0.90   0.368    -4.178037    1.548202
        1962  |  -.8471636    1.46786    -0.58   0.564    -3.724116    2.029789
        1963  |  -.9574855   1.486076    -0.64   0.519    -3.870142    1.955171
        1964  |  -1.914625    1.30271    -1.47   0.142     -4.46789    .6386398
        1965  |  -2.195708   1.338414    -1.64   0.101    -4.818951     .427535
        1966  |   -1.90462   1.274067    -1.49   0.135    -4.401744    .5925045
        1967  |  -1.992263   1.253221    -1.59   0.112    -4.448532    .4640054
        1968  |  -2.268394   1.200371    -1.89   0.059    -4.621078    .0842902
        1969  |  -1.958811    1.25868    -1.56   0.120    -4.425779    .5081569
        1970  |   -2.10112   1.237631    -1.70   0.090    -4.526832    .3245925
        1971  |  -1.124628   1.087395    -1.03   0.301    -3.255882    1.006627
        1972  |  -2.892648    1.29363    -2.24   0.025    -5.428116   -.3571804
        1973  |  -3.548017    1.41945    -2.50   0.012    -6.330088   -.7659464
        1974  |  -1.895026   1.341056    -1.41   0.158    -4.523447    .7333949
        1975  |  -1.746309   1.286616    -1.36   0.175     -4.26803    .7754111
        1976  |  -1.547476   1.280855    -1.21   0.227    -4.057907    .9629544
        1977  |  -1.781461   1.271469    -1.40   0.161    -4.273495     .710573
        1978  |  -.4878972   1.295924    -0.38   0.707    -3.027862    2.052067
        1979  |  -2.216537    1.28397    -1.73   0.084    -4.733072     .299998
        1980  |  -1.862248   1.260579    -1.48   0.140    -4.332937    .6084415
        1981  |  -1.922618   1.295822    -1.48   0.138    -4.462382    .6171461
        1982  |  -1.413739   1.239756    -1.14   0.254    -3.843615    1.016138
        1983  |  -1.585693    1.27092    -1.25   0.212     -4.07665     .905264
        1984  |  -1.346144   1.224269    -1.10   0.272    -3.745667    1.053379
        1985  |  -1.619281   1.247309    -1.30   0.194    -4.063962    .8253991
        1986  |  -2.141429   1.284857    -1.67   0.096    -4.659703    .3768448
        1987  |    -1.7883   1.259565    -1.42   0.156    -4.257002    .6804016
        1988  |  -1.040935   1.252023    -0.83   0.406    -3.494855    1.412986
        1989  |  -2.713677   1.283418    -2.11   0.034    -5.229131    -.198223
        1990  |   -2.41659   1.304884    -1.85   0.064    -4.974116    .1409352
        1991  |   .7936798   .9421993     0.84   0.400    -1.052997    2.640356
        1992  |    1.58541   .9577282     1.66   0.098    -.2917031    3.462522
        1993  |   .8489433   1.019623     0.83   0.405     -1.14948    2.847367
        1994  |   1.054308   1.093002     0.96   0.335    -1.087937    3.196552
        1995  |    .976471    1.03943     0.94   0.348    -1.060774    3.013716
        1996  |   .8232565   1.028105     0.80   0.423    -1.191791    2.838304
        1997  |   .8191827   .9652592     0.85   0.396     -1.07269    2.711056
        1998  |   1.723605   .9555613     1.80   0.071     -.149261     3.59647
        1999  |   1.669841   .9519239     1.75   0.079    -.1958957    3.535578
        2000  |   .9629624   .9966742     0.97   0.334    -.9904831    2.916408
        2001  |   .1205052   .9424322     0.13   0.898    -1.726628    1.967638
        2002  |   1.216725   1.068919     1.14   0.255    -.8783173    3.311768
        2003  |   .1245397   1.446107     0.09   0.931    -2.709779    2.958858
        2004  |   1.275893   1.225312     1.04   0.298    -1.125675     3.67746
        2005  |   .5086631   1.140925     0.45   0.656    -1.727509    2.744835
        2006  |  -.7287385   .8701881    -0.84   0.402    -2.434276     .976799
        2007  |  -.3801921   .8339278    -0.46   0.648     -2.01466    1.254276
        2008  |  -.2517247   .9175736    -0.27   0.784    -2.050136    1.546686
        2009  |   .0745884   .9994037     0.07   0.941    -1.884207    2.033384
        2010  |  -.4875508   .9404967    -0.52   0.604     -2.33089    1.355789
        2011  |   .0738351   1.075665     0.07   0.945     -2.03443      2.1821
        2012  |  -.3944545   1.258824    -0.31   0.754    -2.861703    2.072794
        2013  |   .1262627   .7898999     0.16   0.873    -1.421913    1.674438
        2014  |   1.143655   .8280897     1.38   0.167    -.4793714    2.766681
        2015  |   .3433807   .8497068     0.40   0.686    -1.322014    2.008775
        2016  |  -.5871475   .9339125    -0.63   0.530    -2.417582    1.243287
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -2.245378   1.304455    -1.72   0.085    -4.802064    .3113078
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |    1.99625   .1935911                      1.616818    2.375681
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.713189   .2626247                      2.244334    3.279991
          rho |   .6911289   .0413259                       .604911    .7658158
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type c.
> reb_id_ethnic c.reb_ideology_ethnic c.claim_communist c.claim_libdem) rebel_ex
> t_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dya
> ds i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1232.1858  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1073.8753  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1059.2702  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =   -1059.07  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1059.0698  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1059.0698  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1059.0698
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1002.4903
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -964.77991
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -937.99022
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -918.04226
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -903.11138
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -893.32343
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -888.37009
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -891.74534

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -887.75763  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.69577  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -819.36037  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -818.85667  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -818.82727  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -818.82715  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -818.81606  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -818.81605  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,453
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        488

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(88)     =     544.31
Log pseudolikelihood  = -818.81605              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 488 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -1.746101   1.869661    -0.93   0.350    -5.410568    1.918366
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.419532   .6723175     2.11   0.035     .1018144     2.73725
Christian-~l  |   .9765736   1.111817     0.88   0.380    -1.202547    3.155694
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .6920173   .6018193     1.15   0.250    -.4875267    1.871561
Muslim-The~l  |   2.842151    .925184     3.07   0.002     1.028824    4.655479
              |
reb_id_ethnic |   1.535033   .8239765     1.86   0.062    -.0799312    3.149997
reb_ideolog~c |   .9600411   .6264739     1.53   0.125    -.2678253    2.187907
claim_commu~t |   .9555418   .5947591     1.61   0.108    -.2101645    2.121248
 claim_libdem |   .1548763   .7433608     0.21   0.835    -1.302084    1.611837
              |
post_cold_war#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |  -1.478526   .7763516    -1.90   0.057    -3.000147    .0430954
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |  -1.207242   .8355633    -1.44   0.149    -2.844916    .4304319
              |
post_cold_war#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .2249426   .8465753     0.27   0.790    -1.434314      1.8842
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -1.750826   1.053592    -1.66   0.097    -3.815829    .3141775
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
reb_id_ethnic |
           1  |  -1.228706   1.176669    -1.04   0.296    -3.534935    1.077524
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
reb_ideolog~c |
           1  |   .1710531   .7064918     0.24   0.809    -1.213645    1.555752
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |   .0687198   .8815484     0.08   0.938    -1.659083    1.796523
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |  -1.107098   .7158205    -1.55   0.122     -2.51008    .2958847
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.997731    .891572     3.36   0.001     1.250282     4.74518
  incomp_terr |  -1.311459   .5624943    -2.33   0.020    -2.413928   -.2089908
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0620551   .0337391    -1.84   0.066    -.1281825    .0040723
 vdem_rescale |  -.0589077   .0573587    -1.03   0.304    -.1713287    .0535133
vdem_rescal~q |   .0073571   .0087046     0.85   0.398    -.0097036    .0244177
 active_dyads |    .014801   .1247302     0.12   0.906    -.2296656    .2592677
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9292628    1.23505    -0.75   0.452    -3.349917    1.491391
        1952  |   -1.24588   1.408452    -0.88   0.376    -4.006396    1.514635
        1953  |   .1643972   1.290533     0.13   0.899    -2.365002    2.693796
        1954  |  -3.210143   1.572932    -2.04   0.041    -6.293032   -.1272536
        1955  |  -1.459756   2.264315    -0.64   0.519    -5.897732     2.97822
        1956  |  -2.350643   2.308214    -1.02   0.308    -6.874659    2.173373
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.611719   1.879303    -0.86   0.391    -5.295086    2.071648
        1959  |   -2.24085   1.982777    -1.13   0.258    -6.127022    1.645321
        1960  |  -3.035314   1.612614    -1.88   0.060    -6.195979    .1253509
        1961  |  -1.255918   1.472864    -0.85   0.394    -4.142678    1.630842
        1962  |  -.8602606   1.482194    -0.58   0.562    -3.765307    2.044786
        1963  |  -.9336894   1.521381    -0.61   0.539    -3.915542    2.048163
        1964  |  -1.977076   1.315841    -1.50   0.133    -4.556076     .601924
        1965  |  -2.300077   1.341774    -1.71   0.086    -4.929906    .3297525
        1966  |  -1.936794   1.282902    -1.51   0.131    -4.451237    .5776478
        1967  |  -2.044776   1.263841    -1.62   0.106    -4.521858    .4323055
        1968  |  -2.328905    1.21392    -1.92   0.055    -4.708145    .0503342
        1969  |  -1.979326   1.264747    -1.56   0.118    -4.458183    .4995318
        1970  |  -2.114639   1.246874    -1.70   0.090    -4.558468      .32919
        1971  |  -1.054024   1.097459    -0.96   0.337    -3.205004    1.096956
        1972  |  -2.951717   1.304641    -2.26   0.024    -5.508765   -.3946681
        1973  |  -3.607428   1.419415    -2.54   0.011    -6.389431   -.8254263
        1974  |  -1.914782   1.352194    -1.42   0.157    -4.565034    .7354695
        1975  |  -1.778412   1.299112    -1.37   0.171    -4.324625    .7677998
        1976  |  -1.590832   1.297565    -1.23   0.220    -4.134013     .952349
        1977  |   -1.84892   1.292558    -1.43   0.153    -4.382286    .6844467
        1978  |  -.5120852   1.316516    -0.39   0.697    -3.092408    2.068238
        1979  |   -2.30997   1.315818    -1.76   0.079    -4.888925    .2689862
        1980  |  -1.920751   1.284619    -1.50   0.135    -4.438559    .5970567
        1981  |  -1.981087   1.324812    -1.50   0.135    -4.577669    .6154963
        1982  |  -1.466921   1.274634    -1.15   0.250    -3.965158    1.031316
        1983  |  -1.655661   1.310388    -1.26   0.206    -4.223974    .9126528
        1984  |  -1.337651   1.250103    -1.07   0.285    -3.787808    1.112507
        1985  |   -1.66119    1.26574    -1.31   0.189    -4.141995    .8196145
        1986  |  -2.187217   1.333148    -1.64   0.101    -4.800139    .4257057
        1987  |  -1.828772   1.301409    -1.41   0.160    -4.379488    .7219432
        1988  |  -1.059568   1.273968    -0.83   0.406      -3.5565    1.437364
        1989  |  -2.939673   1.346958    -2.18   0.029    -5.579663   -.2996827
        1990  |  -2.522031   1.367915    -1.84   0.065    -5.203095    .1590323
        1991  |   1.000531   .9534901     1.05   0.294    -.8682755    2.869337
        1992  |    1.77729   1.010019     1.76   0.078    -.2023111    3.756891
        1993  |    .979868   1.046964     0.94   0.349    -1.072143    3.031879
        1994  |   1.197517   1.140286     1.05   0.294    -1.037403    3.432437
        1995  |   1.125088   1.059141     1.06   0.288     -.950791    3.200967
        1996  |   .9656322   1.035228     0.93   0.351    -1.063377    2.994642
        1997  |   1.001161   1.018639     0.98   0.326    -.9953351    2.997656
        1998  |     1.8906   1.000478     1.89   0.059    -.0703012    3.851501
        1999  |    1.83673   .9993925     1.84   0.066    -.1220429    3.795504
        2000  |   1.138972    1.03216     1.10   0.270     -.884024    3.161968
        2001  |   .3016743   .9841967     0.31   0.759    -1.627316    2.230664
        2002  |   1.382889   1.093848     1.26   0.206    -.7610138    3.526791
        2003  |   .2762693   1.452547     0.19   0.849     -2.57067    3.123209
        2004  |    1.40267   1.223363     1.15   0.252    -.9950775    3.800418
        2005  |   .5279945   1.169941     0.45   0.652    -1.765047    2.821036
        2006  |  -.6595318   .8615089    -0.77   0.444    -2.348058    1.028995
        2007  |  -.2714737   .8316587    -0.33   0.744    -1.901495    1.358547
        2008  |  -.1537313   .9114859    -0.17   0.866    -1.940211    1.632748
        2009  |   .1394653   1.024515     0.14   0.892    -1.868548    2.147479
        2010  |  -.3708132   .9568423    -0.39   0.698     -2.24619    1.504563
        2011  |     .17289   1.108629     0.16   0.876    -1.999983    2.345763
        2012  |  -.3542931   1.292194    -0.27   0.784    -2.886946     2.17836
        2013  |   .2146046   .8021759     0.27   0.789    -1.357631     1.78684
        2014  |   1.245263   .8661474     1.44   0.151    -.4523552     2.94288
        2015  |    .380611   .8538952     0.45   0.656    -1.292993    2.054215
        2016  |  -.6318681   .9421552    -0.67   0.502    -2.478458    1.214722
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -3.100713   1.495239    -2.07   0.038    -6.031328   -.1700989
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.077944   .2106758                      1.665027    2.490861
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |    2.82631   .2977175                       2.29909     3.47443
          rho |   .7082906   .0435288                      .6163725    .7858372
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type reb_id_ethnic reb_ideology_e
> thnic claim_communist claim_libdem rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_ln
> GDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.
> year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -9218206.6  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -8510881.1  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7894876.2  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6771157.9  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2408460.6  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -542916.62  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -428954.33  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -403368.99  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -402958.18  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -402957.04  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -402957.04  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -333076.23  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6325.0004  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6193.5389  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6165.7508  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6103.0566  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6022.9106  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6009.0012  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6008.8122  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6008.8121  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -89992.357  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10826.513  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7826.0131  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6618.5367  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6092.0251  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5913.8574  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5833.9268  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5778.9034  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5751.0801  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood =  -5737.056  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5736.8993  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -5736.8992  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        829
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        180

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.6
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(42)     =     108.27
Log likelihood  = -5736.8992                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   -.034279   .1387123    -0.25   0.805    -.3061501     .237592
Christian-~l  |  -.0909039   .2700462    -0.34   0.736    -.6201848     .438377
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |    -.06162   .1390474    -0.44   0.658    -.3341478    .2109078
Muslim-The~l  |  -.0713038    .149847    -0.48   0.634    -.3649986     .222391
              |
reb_id_ethnic |  -.4491832   .1483875    -3.03   0.002    -.7400174    -.158349
reb_ideolog~c |   .1737396   .1424114     1.22   0.222    -.1053815    .4528608
claim_commu~t |  -.5876192   .1466538    -4.01   0.000    -.8750553    -.300183
 claim_libdem |  -.1724825   .1576496    -1.09   0.274      -.48147     .136505
rebel_ext_m~t |   .4841198   .2748664     1.76   0.078    -.0546084    1.022848
  incomp_terr |  -.3161942   .1500359    -2.11   0.035     -.610259   -.0221293
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0037575   .0128521    -0.29   0.770    -.0289472    .0214322
 vdem_rescale |   .0221803   .0129304     1.72   0.086    -.0031628    .0475234
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0004017   .0023375    -0.17   0.864    -.0049831    .0041797
     rcd_loot |   -.031129   .0872662    -0.36   0.721    -.2021677    .1399097
    rcd_crime |    .462845   .0957538     4.83   0.000      .275171     .650519
 active_dyads |   -.035409   .0419446    -0.84   0.399    -.1176189    .0468009
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000745   .0000119     6.24   0.000     .0000511    .0000979
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2360127   .1791011    -1.32   0.188    -.5870444     .115019
        1992  |   .1101125   .1765981     0.62   0.533    -.2360135    .4562385
        1993  |  -.0706084   .1810436    -0.39   0.697    -.4254473    .2842305
        1994  |   -.042475   .1788667    -0.24   0.812    -.3930473    .3080974
        1995  |  -.1962709   .1826938    -1.07   0.283    -.5543441    .1618024
        1996  |  -.0080407   .1896193    -0.04   0.966    -.3796878    .3636063
        1997  |  -.1143604   .1905285    -0.60   0.548    -.4877894    .2590685
        1998  |   -.077728   .1827159    -0.43   0.671    -.4358446    .2803886
        1999  |  -.0924721     .18403    -0.50   0.615    -.4531642      .26822
        2000  |  -.0813194   .1834473    -0.44   0.658    -.4408695    .2782306
        2001  |  -.3489405   .1850437    -1.89   0.059    -.7116195    .0137385
        2002  |  -.0224855   .1812688    -0.12   0.901    -.3777658    .3327948
        2003  |  -.2668327   .1936259    -1.38   0.168    -.6463325    .1126671
        2004  |  -.1611544    .193991    -0.83   0.406    -.5413697     .219061
        2005  |  -.2000933   .2021113    -0.99   0.322    -.5962241    .1960375
        2006  |  -.2507959   .1940216    -1.29   0.196    -.6310711    .1294794
        2007  |  -.1140451   .1950674    -0.58   0.559    -.4963702    .2682799
        2008  |  -.1143645   .1916281    -0.60   0.551    -.4899487    .2612197
        2009  |  -.1081142    .189481    -0.57   0.568      -.47949    .2632617
        2010  |  -.3622048   .1987958    -1.82   0.068    -.7518373    .0274277
        2011  |  -.4707071   .2036919    -2.31   0.021     -.869936   -.0714783
        2012  |  -.3787491    .212851    -1.78   0.075    -.7959295    .0384312
        2013  |  -.4525581   .2146189    -2.11   0.035    -.8732034   -.0319128
        2014  |  -.1764052   .2014488    -0.88   0.381    -.5712376    .2184273
        2015  |  -.4150663   .2043322    -2.03   0.042    -.8155501   -.0145825
              |
        _cons |   1.032951   .3957057     2.61   0.009     .2573818    1.808519
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0864447   .1182599                     -.3182299    .1453405
        /ln_s |   4.443525   .2043488                      4.043009    4.844041
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9171863   .1084664                      .7274356    1.156433
            s |   85.07432   17.38483                      56.99759    126.9815
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 543.83               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type reb_id_ethnic reb_ideology_e
> thnic claim_communist claim_libdem rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_ln
> GDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.
> year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -113454.18  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6792.6577  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5883.0943  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5329.7554  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4979.9972  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4558.9422  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4309.3754  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4262.4571  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4262.0091  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4262.0088  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        768
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        119

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(42)     =     124.60
Log likelihood  = -4262.0088                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |  -.0576502   .1825636    -0.32   0.752    -.4154683    .3001679
Christian-~l  |    .082874   .3436998     0.24   0.809    -.5907651    .7565131
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.2103263   .1737301    -1.21   0.226     -.550831    .1301784
Muslim-The~l  |  -.2746071   .1764481    -1.56   0.120     -.620439    .0712249
              |
reb_id_ethnic |  -.5319241   .1870498    -2.84   0.004    -.8985351   -.1653132
reb_ideolog~c |   .1680994   .1908961     0.88   0.379      -.20605    .5422489
claim_commu~t |  -.7289524   .1735902    -4.20   0.000    -1.069183   -.3887218
 claim_libdem |  -.2155588   .2198241    -0.98   0.327    -.6464062    .2152885
rebel_ext_m~t |   .2359182   .3640428     0.65   0.517    -.4775925     .949429
  incomp_terr |  -.2383575   .2001499    -1.19   0.234    -.6306441    .1539291
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0080762   .0167026     0.48   0.629    -.0246604    .0408128
 vdem_rescale |   .0533763   .0148801     3.59   0.000     .0242117    .0825408
vdem_rescal~q |   .0011566   .0027034     0.43   0.669     -.004142    .0064552
     rcd_loot |  -.1437356   .0940226    -1.53   0.126    -.3280164    .0405453
    rcd_crime |   .5827412   .1087066     5.36   0.000     .3696803    .7958022
 active_dyads |  -.0215219   .0472985    -0.46   0.649    -.1142252    .0711814
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000631   .0000137     4.60   0.000     .0000362    .0000899
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2760689   .1797515    -1.54   0.125    -.6283754    .0762375
        1992  |   .0361352   .1876764     0.19   0.847    -.3317037    .4039741
        1993  |  -.1881792   .1967398    -0.96   0.339     -.573782    .1974237
        1994  |   -.180205   .1974368    -0.91   0.361     -.567174    .2067641
        1995  |  -.3356313    .197058    -1.70   0.089    -.7218579    .0505953
        1996  |  -.1497608   .2031151    -0.74   0.461    -.5478591    .2483376
        1997  |  -.3115324   .2045697    -1.52   0.128    -.7124817    .0894169
        1998  |  -.2843135   .1989218    -1.43   0.153     -.674193     .105566
        1999  |  -.3232752   .2024363    -1.60   0.110    -.7200431    .0734926
        2000  |  -.2338839   .1973175    -1.19   0.236    -.6206191    .1528514
        2001  |  -.4902429   .1954901    -2.51   0.012    -.8733965   -.1070894
        2002  |  -.1594082   .1913112    -0.83   0.405    -.5343713    .2155548
        2003  |   -.408113   .2043571    -2.00   0.046    -.8086455   -.0075804
        2004  |  -.2900843   .2028169    -1.43   0.153    -.6875981    .1074294
        2005  |  -.3598967   .2105182    -1.71   0.087    -.7725049    .0527115
        2006  |  -.4067223   .2057823    -1.98   0.048    -.8100481   -.0033964
        2007  |  -.2700975   .2072994    -1.30   0.193    -.6763969    .1362019
        2008  |  -.2807252    .207758    -1.35   0.177    -.6879233    .1264729
        2009  |  -.2450928   .2041918    -1.20   0.230    -.6453014    .1551158
        2010  |   -.526605   .2144622    -2.46   0.014    -.9469431   -.1062668
        2011  |  -.6758269   .2223709    -3.04   0.002    -1.111666    -.239988
        2012  |   -.654585   .2303387    -2.84   0.004    -1.106041   -.2031295
        2013  |   -.697568   .2334388    -2.99   0.003      -1.1551   -.2400363
        2014  |  -.3772724   .2193321    -1.72   0.085    -.8071554    .0526105
        2015  |  -.6167465   .2261431    -2.73   0.006    -1.059979    -.173514
              |
        _cons |   1.070777   .4999031     2.14   0.032      .090985    2.050569
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. **********************************
. * SET DATA AS SURVIVAL-TIME DATA *
. **********************************
. 
. stset year1 if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, failure(ep_end==1) id(dyad_id_rev) origi
> n(time start_year_1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyad_id_rev
     failure event:  ep_end == 1
obs. time interval:  (year1[_n-1], year1]
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time start_year_1
            if exp:  obsolete_ucdp_data==0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2610  total observations
         34  ignored at outset because of -if <exp>-
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2576  observations remaining, representing
        507  subjects
        433  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
   3381.196  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =        70

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ********
. * Table A2-C1. “Risk” of Armed Conflict Termination – Dyadic, 1950-2017, Risk 
> of Armed Conflict Termination - Dyadic - General Incompatibilities, Different 
> Temporal Thresholds (post-Iranian Revolution, post-Cold War, post-9/11) *
. ******************************************************************************
> ********
. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_
> war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =      118.25
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1769.9506             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4692452   .1108914    -4.23   0.000    -.6865883    -.251902
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1350048   .1061767    -1.27   0.204    -.3431073    .0730977
rebel_ext_m~t |   -.159379   .2335614    -0.68   0.495    -.6171508    .2983929
  incomp_terr |   -.010732   .1097996    -0.10   0.922    -.2259352    .2044712
intensity_l~l |  -.3052823   .1661512    -1.84   0.066    -.6309326    .0203679
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0193415   .0098846    -1.96   0.050    -.0387149    .0000319
 vdem_rescale |  -.0180514   .0143193    -1.26   0.207    -.0461166    .0100139
vdem_rescal~q |   .0000303   .0027175     0.01   0.991    -.0052959    .0053565
 active_dyads |  -.8622605   .0978302    -8.81   0.000    -1.054004   -.6705167
post_cold_war |   .3601365   .1157134     3.11   0.002     .1333424    .5869306
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_su
> pport incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq ac
> tive_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      123.14
Log pseudolikelihood =    -1768.176             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .2001064   .2300803     0.87   0.384    -.2508426    .6510554
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4752771   .1864642    -2.55   0.011    -.8407403    -.109814
incomp_rel_~f |  -.3601556   .1701959    -2.12   0.034    -.6937334   -.0265777
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |  -.0068865   .2320662    -0.03   0.976    -.4617278    .4479549
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .3961102   .2142146     1.85   0.064    -.0237427    .8159632
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2029553   .2398998    -0.85   0.398    -.6731503    .2672397
  incomp_terr |  -.0148313   .1137734    -0.13   0.896    -.2378231    .2081605
intensity_l~l |  -.3145585   .1673019    -1.88   0.060    -.6424642    .0133472
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0210664    .009943    -2.12   0.034    -.0405543   -.0015784
 vdem_rescale |  -.0180035   .0142845    -1.26   0.208    -.0460007    .0099936
vdem_rescal~q |  -4.61e-06   .0027697    -0.00   0.999    -.0054331    .0054238
 active_dyads |  -.8667259   .0980278    -8.84   0.000    -1.058857   -.6745949
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_iran_
> rev, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =      104.32
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1773.6255             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4704374   .1110848    -4.23   0.000    -.6881595   -.2527153
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1317388   .1087424    -1.21   0.226      -.34487    .0813924
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1103398    .228181    -0.48   0.629    -.5575663    .3368866
  incomp_terr |  -.0296038   .1138355    -0.26   0.795    -.2527173    .1935097
intensity_l~l |  -.3205708   .1664678    -1.93   0.054    -.6468417       .0057
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0158219   .0097336    -1.63   0.104    -.0348994    .0032556
 vdem_rescale |   -.017857   .0145007    -1.23   0.218    -.0462778    .0105639
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0013927   .0026995    -0.52   0.606    -.0066837    .0038982
 active_dyads |  -.8545396   .0984486    -8.68   0.000    -1.047495   -.6615839
post_iran_rev |   .1934323   .1361774     1.42   0.155    -.0734704    .4603351
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_iran_rev##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_su
> pport incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq ac
> tive_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      106.10
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1773.4251             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_iran~v |   .1207014   .2795999     0.43   0.666    -.4273043    .6687071
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4862987   .2514633    -1.93   0.053    -.9791577    .0065603
incomp_rel_~f |  -.2457944   .2287395    -1.07   0.283    -.6941157    .2025268
              |
post_iran_rev#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |    .014249    .273249     0.05   0.958    -.5213092    .5498072
              |
post_iran_rev#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .1528116   .2581338     0.59   0.554    -.3531215    .6587446
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1316507   .2300086    -0.57   0.567    -.5824592    .3191578
  incomp_terr |  -.0271107   .1129785    -0.24   0.810    -.2485445    .1943231
intensity_l~l |  -.3187778   .1664916    -1.91   0.056    -.6450952    .0075397
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0163376   .0098135    -1.66   0.096    -.0355718    .0028966
 vdem_rescale |   -.018034   .0145212    -1.24   0.214     -.046495    .0104271
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0014011   .0027285    -0.51   0.608    -.0067489    .0039467
 active_dyads |  -.8549835   .0985959    -8.67   0.000    -1.048228    -.661739
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_2001,
>  nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =      100.35
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1774.7435             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4926032   .1109109    -4.44   0.000    -.7099845   -.2752218
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1265531   .1101116    -1.15   0.250    -.3423679    .0892616
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.0958122   .2275129    -0.42   0.674    -.5417293    .3501049
  incomp_terr |  -.0514388   .1141376    -0.45   0.652    -.2751443    .1722667
intensity_l~l |  -.3356149   .1660966    -2.02   0.043    -.6611581   -.0100716
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0120694   .0099355    -1.21   0.224    -.0315425    .0074038
 vdem_rescale |  -.0158003   .0145624    -1.09   0.278     -.044342    .0127415
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0018243   .0027111    -0.67   0.501    -.0071379    .0034893
 active_dyads |  -.8451521   .0991596    -8.52   0.000    -1.039501   -.6508029
    post_2001 |   .0040337   .1284369     0.03   0.975     -.247698    .2557654
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_2001##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_suppor
> t incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active
> _dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      101.66
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1774.5845             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  1.post_2001 |   .1137213   .2706611     0.42   0.674    -.4167647    .6442074
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4645619   .1335698    -3.48   0.001     -.726354   -.2027699
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1043236   .1288607    -0.81   0.418    -.3568859    .1482386
              |
    post_2001#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |  -.1074637   .2738197    -0.39   0.695    -.6441405    .4292131
              |
    post_2001#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |  -.0840161   .2425742    -0.35   0.729    -.5594529    .3914206
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.0881041   .2282253    -0.39   0.699    -.5354175    .3592092
  incomp_terr |  -.0527662   .1137237    -0.46   0.643    -.2756606    .1701281
intensity_l~l |  -.3367418   .1672637    -2.01   0.044    -.6645726    -.008911
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0117892   .0099883    -1.18   0.238    -.0313658    .0077874
 vdem_rescale |  -.0158317    .014753    -1.07   0.283     -.044747    .0130836
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0017695   .0027216    -0.65   0.516    -.0071037    .0035648
 active_dyads |  -.8450959   .0995926    -8.49   0.000    -1.040294    -.649898
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ***********
. * Table A2-C2. Risk of Armed Conflict Termination - Dyadic - Specific Incompat
> ibilities, Different Temporal Thresholds (post-Iranian Revolution, post-Cold W
> ar, post-9/11) *
. ******************************************************************************
> ***********
. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_
> war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      128.81
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1767.1868             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.3533038   .1208393    -2.92   0.003    -.5901446   -.1164631
 Theological  |  -.8395214   .2121645    -3.96   0.000    -1.255356   -.4236866
        Both  |  -.5748762   .1839235    -3.13   0.002    -.9353596   -.2143927
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0826714    .110125    -0.75   0.453    -.2985125    .1331697
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2467406   .2439102    -1.01   0.312    -.7247958    .2313146
  incomp_terr |   -.054429   .1115091    -0.49   0.625    -.2729827    .1641248
intensity_l~l |  -.2880094   .1668417    -1.73   0.084     -.615013    .0389943
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0171283   .0100802    -1.70   0.089    -.0368851    .0026285
 vdem_rescale |  -.0256081   .0150439    -1.70   0.089    -.0550936    .0038774
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0005221   .0028879    -0.18   0.857    -.0061822     .005138
 active_dyads |  -.8477654   .0979484    -8.66   0.000    -1.039741     -.65579
post_cold_war |   .4573475   .1210124     3.78   0.000     .2201676    .6945275
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_supp
> ort incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq acti
> ve_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(16)    =      142.92
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1759.8382             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .1485252   .2298066     0.65   0.518    -.3018875    .5989379
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.5269205   .1921479    -2.74   0.006    -.9035235   -.1503175
 Theological  |   .1576222   .8613513     0.18   0.855    -1.530595     1.84584
        Both  |   -.041155   .2828486    -0.15   0.884     -.595528     .513218
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.3492305   .1713593    -2.04   0.042    -.6850885   -.0133725
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |   .3333308   .2384663     1.40   0.162    -.1340545     .800716
           1 #|
 Theological  |  -1.013216   .8852351    -1.14   0.252    -2.748245    .7218132
      1#Both  |   -.824578   .4107028    -2.01   0.045    -1.629541   -.0196154
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .5111704   .2176962     2.35   0.019     .0844936    .9378471
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3392098   .2631787    -1.29   0.197    -.8550305    .1766109
  incomp_terr |   -.053576   .1128852    -0.47   0.635    -.2748269    .1676749
intensity_l~l |   -.334885   .1722845    -1.94   0.052    -.6725565    .0027864
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0187714   .0099737    -1.88   0.060    -.0383196    .0007767
 vdem_rescale |  -.0259536    .015315    -1.69   0.090    -.0559703    .0040632
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0008015   .0029234    -0.27   0.784    -.0065314    .0049283
 active_dyads |  -.8575852   .0974215    -8.80   0.000    -1.048528   -.6666426
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_iran_
> rev, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      109.99
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1772.4209             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.3984523   .1198587    -3.32   0.001     -.633371   -.1635335
 Theological  |  -.7220538   .2101157    -3.44   0.001    -1.133873   -.3102346
        Both  |  -.5204211   .1748272    -2.98   0.003    -.8630762    -.177766
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   -.100447   .1123469    -0.89   0.371    -.3206428    .1197488
rebel_ext_m~t |   -.155683   .2333897    -0.67   0.505    -.6131184    .3017525
  incomp_terr |  -.0580991   .1159214    -0.50   0.616     -.285301    .1691027
intensity_l~l |  -.3113044   .1672032    -1.86   0.063    -.6390166    .0164078
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0141974   .0099063    -1.43   0.152    -.0336134    .0052185
 vdem_rescale |  -.0229519   .0150565    -1.52   0.127    -.0524621    .0065584
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0020091   .0028621    -0.70   0.483    -.0076188    .0036006
 active_dyads |  -.8448243   .0985505    -8.57   0.000     -1.03798   -.6516689
post_iran_rev |   .2416772   .1363644     1.77   0.076     -.025592    .5089465
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_iran_rev##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_supp
> ort incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq acti
> ve_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev
note: 0.post_iran_rev#2.incomp_ideologies identifies no observations in the samp
> le
note: 1.post_iran_rev#2.incomp_ideologies omitted because of collinearity

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(15)    =      112.50
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1771.6409             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_iran~v |   .1005381   .2817371     0.36   0.721    -.4516565    .6527327
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.5018155   .2547747    -1.97   0.049    -1.001165   -.0024662
 Theological  |  -.7151833    .209687    -3.41   0.001    -1.126162   -.3042043
        Both  |  -.2480388   .4972506    -0.50   0.618    -1.222632    .7265545
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.2266271   .2283689    -0.99   0.321     -.674222    .2209678
              |
post_iran_rev#|
incomp_ideo~s |
           0 #|
 Theological  |          0  (empty)
   1#Secular  |   .1402964   .2799664     0.50   0.616    -.4084277    .6890204
           1 #|
 Theological  |          0  (omitted)
      1#Both  |  -.3335278   .5782066    -0.58   0.564    -1.466792    .7997363
              |
post_iran_rev#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .1803051   .2620899     0.69   0.491    -.3333816    .6939918
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1838822   .2378823    -0.77   0.440    -.6501229    .2823585
  incomp_terr |  -.0550646   .1145282    -0.48   0.631    -.2795358    .1694066
intensity_l~l |  -.3169604   .1691571    -1.87   0.061    -.6485022    .0145814
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0144855   .0099522    -1.46   0.146    -.0339916    .0050205
 vdem_rescale |  -.0236689   .0152247    -1.55   0.120    -.0535088     .006171
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0022182   .0028913    -0.77   0.443     -.007885    .0034487
 active_dyads |   -.845465    .098853    -8.55   0.000    -1.039213   -.6517168
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_2001,
>  nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      102.67
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1774.0102             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.4416059   .1198445    -3.68   0.000    -.6764969    -.206715
 Theological  |   -.704431   .2232121    -3.16   0.002    -1.141919   -.2669434
        Both  |  -.5242119   .1730867    -3.03   0.002    -.8634555   -.1849682
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1057708   .1127361    -0.94   0.348    -.3267294    .1151879
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1313021     .23357    -0.56   0.574    -.5890909    .3264868
  incomp_terr |  -.0736308   .1162854    -0.63   0.527     -.301546    .1542843
intensity_l~l |  -.3282663   .1669468    -1.97   0.049    -.6554761   -.0010565
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.010957    .010103    -1.08   0.278    -.0307586    .0088446
 vdem_rescale |  -.0193385   .0151835    -1.27   0.203    -.0490977    .0104206
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0021527   .0028443    -0.76   0.449    -.0077275    .0034221
 active_dyads |  -.8392596   .0992499    -8.46   0.000    -1.033786   -.6447335
    post_2001 |   .0527723     .13781     0.38   0.702    -.2173304     .322875
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_2001##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_support 
> incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_d
> yads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(16)    =      108.49
Log pseudolikelihood =    -1770.714             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  1.post_2001 |   .0528952   .2740416     0.19   0.847    -.4842164    .5900068
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.4863857   .1401847    -3.47   0.001    -.7611427   -.2116288
 Theological  |  -.3151749   .3595174    -0.88   0.381    -1.019816    .3894663
        Both  |  -.3498315   .1876935    -1.86   0.062    -.7177039    .0180409
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0919427    .130005    -0.71   0.479    -.3467479    .1628625
              |
    post_2001#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |   .2642667   .2892805     0.91   0.361    -.3027127     .831246
           1 #|
 Theological  |  -.6063337   .4555207    -1.33   0.183    -1.499138    .2864705
      1#Both  |  -.5840154   .4722091    -1.24   0.216    -1.509528    .3414974
              |
    post_2001#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .0513646   .2352085     0.22   0.827    -.4096356    .5123647
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1683242   .2452716    -0.69   0.493    -.6490477    .3123992
  incomp_terr |  -.0590778    .114376    -0.52   0.605    -.2832507    .1650952
intensity_l~l |  -.3354329   .1692243    -1.98   0.047    -.6671065   -.0037594
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0125407   .0101811    -1.23   0.218    -.0324952    .0074138
 vdem_rescale |  -.0221195   .0159664    -1.39   0.166    -.0534131    .0091741
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0025557   .0029217    -0.87   0.382    -.0082822    .0031708
 active_dyads |  -.8433836    .099336    -8.49   0.000    -1.038079   -.6486886
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> **********
. * Table A3-C1. Risk of Armed Conflict Termination - Monadic - General Claims, 
> Different Temporal Thresholds (post-Iranian Revolution, post-Cold War, post-9/
> 11) *
. ******************************************************************************
> **********
. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war, nohr 
> efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =      123.22
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1765.2231             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |   -.581406   .1093366    -5.32   0.000    -.7957017   -.3671103
    rel_aff01 |   .2324609   .1727792     1.35   0.178    -.1061801    .5711019
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1807399   .2282946    -0.79   0.429    -.6281892    .2667094
  incomp_terr |  -.2774566   .1158076    -2.40   0.017    -.5044353   -.0504779
intensity_l~l |   -.306602   .1651944    -1.86   0.063    -.6303771    .0171731
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0154422   .0101539    -1.52   0.128    -.0353434     .004459
 vdem_rescale |  -.0330889   .0141603    -2.34   0.019    -.0608426   -.0053352
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0006426   .0026638    -0.24   0.809    -.0058636    .0045783
 active_dyads |  -.8609638   .0969032    -8.88   0.000    -1.050891    -.671037
post_cold_war |   .4100368   .1163042     3.53   0.000     .1820848    .6379888
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_ideology c.rel_aff01) rebel_ext_mil_support inco
> mp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads
> , nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      130.04
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1762.9236             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |    .898241   .3475645     2.58   0.010     .2170272    1.579455
claim_ideol~y |  -.3433909   .1744831    -1.97   0.049    -.6853715   -.0014103
    rel_aff01 |   .4105485   .2243986     1.83   0.067    -.0292646    .8503617
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.3818392    .210851    -1.81   0.070    -.7950996    .0314211
              |
post_cold_war#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |  -.3308396   .3533286    -0.94   0.349    -1.023351    .3616717
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1716908   .2333558    -0.74   0.462    -.6290596    .2856781
  incomp_terr |  -.2434831   .1166653    -2.09   0.037    -.4721429   -.0148234
intensity_l~l |  -.3274701   .1653504    -1.98   0.048    -.6515509   -.0033893
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0162444   .0099987    -1.62   0.104    -.0358416    .0033527
 vdem_rescale |  -.0330134   .0140988    -2.34   0.019    -.0606466   -.0053802
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0002475    .002669    -0.09   0.926    -.0054786    .0049835
 active_dyads |  -.8671331    .097272    -8.91   0.000    -1.057783   -.6764834
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_iran_rev, nohr 
> efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =      105.10
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1769.9878             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.5539293   .1103888    -5.02   0.000    -.7702874   -.3375711
    rel_aff01 |   .2583716   .1710343     1.51   0.131    -.0768495    .5935927
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1250877   .2232855    -0.56   0.575    -.5627192    .3125438
  incomp_terr |  -.2936623   .1182255    -2.48   0.013      -.52538   -.0619445
intensity_l~l |  -.3215042   .1653032    -1.94   0.052    -.6454925    .0024842
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0117395   .0099458    -1.18   0.238     -.031233    .0077539
 vdem_rescale |  -.0331634   .0148111    -2.24   0.025    -.0621926   -.0041342
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0024307    .002673    -0.91   0.363    -.0076697    .0028083
 active_dyads |  -.8495809   .0975283    -8.71   0.000    -1.040733   -.6584289
post_iran_rev |   .2128279   .1326853     1.60   0.109    -.0472304    .4728863
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_iran_rev##(c.claim_ideology c.rel_aff01) rebel_ext_mil_support inco
> mp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads
> , nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      115.19
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1766.4165             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_iran~v |   1.329646   .5981117     2.22   0.026     .1573688    2.501923
claim_ideol~y |  -.3233437   .2336068    -1.38   0.166    -.7812046    .1345173
    rel_aff01 |   1.099452   .4822554     2.28   0.023     .1542492    2.044656
              |
post_iran_rev#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.2836021   .2519577    -1.13   0.260    -.7774301    .2102259
              |
post_iran_rev#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |   -1.05014   .5937261    -1.77   0.077    -2.213822    .1135414
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1523646   .2206203    -0.69   0.490    -.5847726    .2800433
  incomp_terr |  -.2766355   .1200027    -2.31   0.021    -.5118365   -.0414345
intensity_l~l |  -.3345052   .1646318    -2.03   0.042    -.6571776   -.0118327
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0150832   .0097939    -1.54   0.124    -.0342788    .0041124
 vdem_rescale |  -.0328848   .0150087    -2.19   0.028    -.0623013   -.0034683
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0024307   .0027054    -0.90   0.369    -.0077331    .0028718
 active_dyads |   -.846958   .0975642    -8.68   0.000     -1.03818   -.6557357
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_2001, nohr efro
> n vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =       99.34
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1771.3495             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.5666986   .1114423    -5.09   0.000    -.7851214   -.3482758
    rel_aff01 |   .2661188   .1751539     1.52   0.129    -.0771765     .609414
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1084401   .2224433    -0.49   0.626    -.5444208    .3275407
  incomp_terr |  -.3279992   .1181481    -2.78   0.006    -.5595652   -.0964333
intensity_l~l |  -.3369907    .164783    -2.05   0.041    -.6599593    -.014022
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0072654    .010151    -0.72   0.474     -.027161    .0126301
 vdem_rescale |  -.0317712   .0148837    -2.13   0.033    -.0609427   -.0025998
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0030161   .0026966    -1.12   0.263    -.0083013    .0022692
 active_dyads |  -.8371221   .0978421    -8.56   0.000    -1.028889   -.6453552
    post_2001 |  -.0102185   .1282421    -0.08   0.936    -.2615685    .2411315
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_2001##(c.claim_ideology c.rel_aff01) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_t
> err intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, no
> hr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      103.39
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1769.8785             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  1.post_2001 |   .0598009   .5432811     0.11   0.912    -1.005011    1.124612
claim_ideol~y |  -.4537742   .1274954    -3.56   0.000    -.7036606   -.2038878
    rel_aff01 |   .2440052   .1777834     1.37   0.170    -.1044439    .5924542
              |
    post_2001#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.4097883   .2352722    -1.74   0.082    -.8709133    .0513368
              |
    post_2001#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |   .1458553   .5485956     0.27   0.790    -.9293723    1.221083
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1114805   .2271525    -0.49   0.624    -.5566912    .3337302
  incomp_terr |  -.3086404   .1183644    -2.61   0.009    -.5406304   -.0766504
intensity_l~l |  -.3393291   .1650648    -2.06   0.040    -.6628501   -.0158081
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.007964   .0101476    -0.78   0.433    -.0278529    .0119249
 vdem_rescale |  -.0301127   .0150755    -2.00   0.046    -.0596601   -.0005653
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0026136   .0027238    -0.96   0.337    -.0079522     .002725
 active_dyads |  -.8386953   .0977218    -8.58   0.000    -1.030227    -.647164
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ***********
. * Table A3-C2. Risk of Armed Conflict Termination - Monadic - Specific Claims,
>  Different Temporal Thresholds (post-Iranian Revolution, post-Cold War, post-9
> /11) *
. ******************************************************************************
> ***********
. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads post_cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(14)    =      132.34
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1757.4431             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.6482625   .1416353    -4.58   0.000    -.9258626   -.3706623
 claim_libdem |  -.4611113   .1544588    -2.99   0.003     -.763845   -.1583776
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .4010611   .1393505     2.88   0.004     .1279392     .674183
Christian-~l  |   .0990057    .331668     0.30   0.765    -.5510517     .749063
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .0348835   .1422295     0.25   0.806    -.2438811    .3136482
Muslim-The~l  |  -.6077764   .2031389    -2.99   0.003    -1.005921   -.2096314
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3596656   .2533262    -1.42   0.156    -.8561758    .1368445
  incomp_terr |  -.2212757   .1153701    -1.92   0.055    -.4473971    .0048456
intensity_l~l |  -.3553711   .1735705    -2.05   0.041     -.695563   -.0151791
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0187972   .0104391    -1.80   0.072    -.0392575    .0016631
 vdem_rescale |  -.0292185   .0137267    -2.13   0.033    -.0561225   -.0023146
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0007035   .0026476    -0.27   0.790    -.0058928    .0044858
 active_dyads |  -.8502998   .0983415    -8.65   0.000    -1.043046   -.6575541
post_cold_war |   .4219518   .1253885     3.37   0.001     .1761949    .6677086
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_communist c.claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_
> claim_type) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vde
> m_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep
> _no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(20)    =      149.31
Log pseudolikelihood =    -1751.903             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .7180281   .2456562     2.92   0.003     .2365507    1.199505
claim_commu~t |  -.6347868   .1981711    -3.20   0.001    -1.023195   -.2463785
 claim_libdem |  -.5505116   .2691152    -2.05   0.041    -1.077968   -.0230555
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .5080259    .217541     2.34   0.020     .0816534    .9343984
Christian-~l  |   .5047962   .8861505     0.57   0.569    -1.232027    2.241619
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .2355592   .2092053     1.13   0.260    -.1744757     .645594
Muslim-The~l  |   .4693194   .3285956     1.43   0.153    -.1747162    1.113355
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |  -.0205775   .2644803    -0.08   0.938    -.5389493    .4977942
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |   .1349569   .3235918     0.42   0.677    -.4992714    .7691852
              |
post_cold_war#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |  -.2598766   .2972668    -0.87   0.382    -.8425088    .3227556
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |  -.6189076   .8602856    -0.72   0.472    -2.305036    1.067221
              |
post_cold_war#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.4123809   .3011376    -1.37   0.171      -1.0026     .177838
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -1.435927    .429793    -3.34   0.001    -2.278306   -.5935486
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3475929   .2643613    -1.31   0.189    -.8657315    .1705456
  incomp_terr |  -.2245212    .118211    -1.90   0.058    -.4562105    .0071681
intensity_l~l |  -.3577555   .1770062    -2.02   0.043    -.7046813   -.0108297
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0168114   .0105839    -1.59   0.112    -.0375555    .0039327
 vdem_rescale |  -.0312306    .014469    -2.16   0.031    -.0595894   -.0028719
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0014031   .0027868    -0.50   0.615    -.0068651    .0040589
 active_dyads |  -.8493477   .0972355    -8.73   0.000    -1.039926   -.6587697
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads post_iran_rev, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(14)    =      118.46
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1762.0237             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.7044805   .1392394    -5.06   0.000    -.9773848   -.4315763
 claim_libdem |  -.4477055   .1556289    -2.88   0.004    -.7527326   -.1426785
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .4202016   .1393002     3.02   0.003     .1471781    .6932251
Christian-~l  |   .1983531   .3357875     0.59   0.555    -.4597783    .8564845
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .0770103   .1414255     0.54   0.586    -.2001787    .3541992
Muslim-The~l  |  -.4793459   .1948111    -2.46   0.014    -.8611687   -.0975232
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2817542   .2455228    -1.15   0.251      -.76297    .1994615
  incomp_terr |  -.2462256   .1163371    -2.12   0.034    -.4742421   -.0182092
intensity_l~l |  -.3717257   .1734368    -2.14   0.032    -.7116555   -.0317958
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0157206   .0102017    -1.54   0.123    -.0357156    .0042745
 vdem_rescale |  -.0288206   .0143583    -2.01   0.045    -.0569622   -.0006789
vdem_rescal~q |   -.002515   .0026158    -0.96   0.336    -.0076419    .0026119
 active_dyads |  -.8456653   .0990332    -8.54   0.000    -1.039767   -.6515637
post_iran_rev |   .2013937   .1376923     1.46   0.144    -.0684783    .4712657
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_iran_rev##(c.claim_communist c.claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_
> claim_type) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vde
> m_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep
> _no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev
note: 0.post_iran_rev#2.chr_claim_type identifies no observations in the sample
note: 1.post_iran_rev#2.chr_claim_type omitted because of collinearity

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(19)    =      129.27
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1757.3731             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_iran~v |   .4951831   .3021739     1.64   0.101    -.0970669    1.087433
claim_commu~t |  -.6430185   .2591783    -2.48   0.013    -1.150999   -.1350383
 claim_libdem |  -.8052539   .4052876    -1.99   0.047    -1.599603   -.0109048
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .7530527   .3010948     2.50   0.012     .1629178    1.343188
Christian-~l  |    .125305   .3410205     0.37   0.713     -.543083    .7936929
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .1513962   .3259976     0.46   0.642    -.4875473    .7903397
Muslim-The~l  |   .6889202   .4692681     1.47   0.142    -.2308284    1.608669
              |
post_iran_rev#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |  -.1012514   .3012072    -0.34   0.737    -.6916067    .4891038
              |
post_iran_rev#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |   .4367404    .434834     1.00   0.315    -.4155185    1.288999
              |
post_iran_rev#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           0 #|
Christian-~l  |          0  (empty)
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |  -.4719299   .3391061    -1.39   0.164    -1.136566    .1927058
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |          0  (omitted)
              |
post_iran_rev#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.1107855   .3908451    -0.28   0.777    -.8768279    .6552568
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -1.359194   .5241242    -2.59   0.010    -2.386459   -.3319296
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2588937   .2484867    -1.04   0.297    -.7459187    .2281314
  incomp_terr |  -.2403865   .1177491    -2.04   0.041    -.4711704   -.0096025
intensity_l~l |  -.3813943   .1757638    -2.17   0.030     -.725885   -.0369036
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.015273   .0101915    -1.50   0.134    -.0352479     .004702
 vdem_rescale |  -.0284727   .0152753    -1.86   0.062    -.0584118    .0014663
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0022733   .0027303    -0.83   0.405    -.0076246    .0030779
 active_dyads |  -.8449832   .0991548    -8.52   0.000    -1.039323   -.6506434
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads post_2001, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(14)    =      114.55
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1763.1111             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.7659164   .1406755    -5.44   0.000    -1.041635   -.4901975
 claim_libdem |  -.4413582   .1573489    -2.80   0.005    -.7497565     -.13296
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .4040292   .1419949     2.85   0.004     .1257244     .682334
Christian-~l  |    .217656     .34527     0.63   0.528    -.4590608    .8943729
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .0798517   .1451543     0.55   0.582    -.2046455    .3643489
Muslim-The~l  |    -.45248   .1995248    -2.27   0.023    -.8435414   -.0614186
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2487423   .2435924    -1.02   0.307    -.7261746      .22869
  incomp_terr |  -.2853599   .1174708    -2.43   0.015    -.5155985   -.0551213
intensity_l~l |  -.3829744   .1722987    -2.22   0.026    -.7206737   -.0452752
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.011133   .0105382    -1.06   0.291    -.0317874    .0095215
 vdem_rescale |  -.0274068   .0145417    -1.88   0.059     -.055908    .0010944
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0031695   .0026129    -1.21   0.225    -.0082908    .0019517
 active_dyads |   -.834981   .0987868    -8.45   0.000      -1.0286   -.6413625
    post_2001 |  -.0247882   .1360839    -0.18   0.855    -.2915078    .2419314
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. stcox post_2001##(c.claim_communist c.claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_clai
> m_type) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_re
> scale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(20)    =      127.63
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1758.8073             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  1.post_2001 |   .3642148   .3332764     1.09   0.274    -.2889949    1.017425
claim_commu~t |  -.7260785   .1509415    -4.81   0.000    -1.021918   -.4302386
 claim_libdem |   -.421379   .1819789    -2.32   0.021    -.7780511   -.0647069
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .4180257   .1599619     2.61   0.009     .1045062    .7315452
Christian-~l  |   .7179582   .4646291     1.55   0.122    -.1926982    1.628615
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .1601217   .1616315     0.99   0.322    -.1566703    .4769137
Muslim-The~l  |  -.1430586   .2255717    -0.63   0.526    -.5851711    .2990539
              |
    post_2001#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |  -.2105171   .3531893    -0.60   0.551    -.9027555    .4817213
              |
    post_2001#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |  -.1756482   .3493224    -0.50   0.615    -.8603075    .5090111
              |
    post_2001#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |    -.09781   .3556583    -0.28   0.783    -.7948875    .5992674
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |  -1.466163   .6427222    -2.28   0.023    -2.725875   -.2064505
              |
    post_2001#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.4117198   .4023939    -1.02   0.306    -1.200397    .3769577
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -.8910305   .4636829    -1.92   0.055    -1.799832    .0177714
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   -.259105   .2534662    -1.02   0.307    -.7558897    .2376797
  incomp_terr |   -.294921   .1202777    -2.45   0.014    -.5306611    -.059181
intensity_l~l |  -.3828535   .1734955    -2.21   0.027    -.7228985   -.0428086
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0117939   .0108017    -1.09   0.275     -.032965    .0093771
 vdem_rescale |  -.0295022   .0155465    -1.90   0.058    -.0599728    .0009683
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0032107    .002713    -1.18   0.237     -.008528    .0021066
 active_dyads |  -.8393116   .0975346    -8.61   0.000    -1.030476   -.6481473
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. **************************
. * SET DATA AS PANEL DATA *
. **************************
. 
. xtset dyad_id_rev year
       panel variable:  dyad_id_rev (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2017, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ******************
. * Table A4C. Conflict Intensity - Dyadic - General, Different Temporal Thresho
> lds (post-Iranian Revolution, post-Cold War, post-9/11) *
. ******************************************************************************
> ******************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_c
> old_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(74)     =     403.18
Log pseudolikelihood  = -836.76728              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .6628711   .4312095     1.54   0.124    -.1822841    1.508026
incomp_rel_~f |   .7226606   .3626506     1.99   0.046     .0118784    1.433443
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.492242   .7982417     3.12   0.002     .9277174    4.056767
  incomp_terr |   -1.03845   .4489483    -2.31   0.021    -1.918372   -.1585275
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0593705   .0323385    -1.84   0.066    -.1227527    .0040117
 vdem_rescale |  -.0357355   .0549708    -0.65   0.516    -.1434763    .0720054
vdem_rescal~q |   .0069122   .0080016     0.86   0.388    -.0087707    .0225951
 active_dyads |   .1122504   .1320892     0.85   0.395    -.1466397    .3711405
post_cold_war |  -2.720961   1.463184    -1.86   0.063    -5.588749    .1468266
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.212863   1.313903    -0.92   0.356    -3.788065    1.362339
        1952  |  -1.469082   1.450413    -1.01   0.311     -4.31184    1.373675
        1953  |   .1953886   1.434186     0.14   0.892    -2.615564    3.006341
        1954  |  -2.982661   1.565946    -1.90   0.057    -6.051859    .0865374
        1955  |  -1.236672   2.124478    -0.58   0.560    -5.400573    2.927229
        1956  |   -2.23519   2.285108    -0.98   0.328     -6.71392    2.243539
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.409834    1.86268    -0.76   0.449    -5.060619    2.240951
        1959  |  -2.229697   1.984104    -1.12   0.261    -6.118468    1.659075
        1960  |  -3.073757   1.651947    -1.86   0.063    -6.311514    .1640006
        1961  |  -.8503122   1.565958    -0.54   0.587    -3.919533    2.218908
        1962  |   -.297504   1.581518    -0.19   0.851    -3.397223    2.802215
        1963  |  -.3435954    1.55635    -0.22   0.825    -3.393985    2.706794
        1964  |  -1.102851   1.396787    -0.79   0.430    -3.840504    1.634801
        1965  |  -1.307658   1.432212    -0.91   0.361    -4.114742    1.499426
        1966  |  -1.141078   1.369478    -0.83   0.405    -3.825205     1.54305
        1967  |   -1.21858    1.36297    -0.89   0.371    -3.889952    1.452792
        1968  |  -1.479856   1.273222    -1.16   0.245    -3.975325    1.015613
        1969  |  -1.165508   1.324493    -0.88   0.379    -3.761466     1.43045
        1970  |  -1.296947   1.318954    -0.98   0.325     -3.88205    1.288155
        1971  |  -.3218449   1.158707    -0.28   0.781     -2.59287     1.94918
        1972  |  -2.056802   1.361217    -1.51   0.131    -4.724738    .6111349
        1973  |   -2.82106   1.554662    -1.81   0.070    -5.868141    .2260203
        1974  |  -1.088084   1.405648    -0.77   0.439    -3.843104    1.666937
        1975  |  -.9037058   1.338185    -0.68   0.499      -3.5265    1.719088
        1976  |  -.6591152   1.312482    -0.50   0.616    -3.231532    1.913302
        1977  |  -.9127704   1.305949    -0.70   0.485    -3.472384    1.646843
        1978  |   .3557587   1.346823     0.26   0.792    -2.283965    2.995482
        1979  |  -1.317839    1.32173    -1.00   0.319    -3.908383    1.272705
        1980  |   -.976989   1.311034    -0.75   0.456    -3.546568     1.59259
        1981  |  -1.049456   1.357156    -0.77   0.439    -3.709432     1.61052
        1982  |  -.5276072   1.292969    -0.41   0.683    -3.061779    2.006565
        1983  |  -.7140267   1.318534    -0.54   0.588    -3.298306    1.870252
        1984  |  -.4879279   1.273357    -0.38   0.702    -2.983663    2.007807
        1985  |   -.758777   1.301727    -0.58   0.560    -3.310115    1.792561
        1986  |  -1.220167   1.324092    -0.92   0.357    -3.815339    1.375005
        1987  |  -.9639904   1.316045    -0.73   0.464    -3.543392    1.615411
        1988  |  -.2049374   1.286923    -0.16   0.873     -2.72726    2.317385
        1989  |  -1.798757   1.316991    -1.37   0.172    -4.380012    .7824975
        1990  |  -1.493666   1.355626    -1.10   0.271    -4.150643    1.163312
        1991  |   1.004475   .9290607     1.08   0.280    -.8164504    2.825401
        1992  |   1.807016   .9264099     1.95   0.051    -.0087136    3.622746
        1993  |   1.083755   .9896933     1.10   0.273    -.8560077    3.023519
        1994  |   1.306941   1.060472     1.23   0.218    -.7715447    3.385428
        1995  |   1.171061   1.022353     1.15   0.252    -.8327137    3.174835
        1996  |   .9777347    1.01241     0.97   0.334    -1.006553    2.962023
        1997  |   .9562297   .9479115     1.01   0.313    -.9016427    2.814102
        1998  |   1.851827   .9285087     1.99   0.046     .0319835    3.671671
        1999  |   1.815186   .9208975     1.97   0.049     .0102606    3.620112
        2000  |   1.129923   .9672574     1.17   0.243    -.7658666    3.025713
        2001  |    .647847   .9521317     0.68   0.496    -1.218297    2.513991
        2002  |   1.362771   1.039987     1.31   0.190     -.675567    3.401108
        2003  |   .3137863   1.409489     0.22   0.824    -2.448761    3.076334
        2004  |    1.47009   1.201974     1.22   0.221     -.885736    3.825916
        2005  |   .6425461   1.138423     0.56   0.572    -1.588722    2.873815
        2006  |  -.6076619   .8049192    -0.75   0.450    -2.185275    .9699508
        2007  |  -.2396173   .7966616    -0.30   0.764    -1.801045    1.321811
        2008  |  -.1060977   .8654177    -0.12   0.902    -1.802285     1.59009
        2009  |   .1575035   .9821113     0.16   0.873    -1.767399    2.082406
        2010  |  -.3581664    .912141    -0.39   0.695     -2.14593    1.429597
        2011  |   .1040407     1.0564     0.10   0.922    -1.966465    2.174547
        2012  |   -.282503   1.221409    -0.23   0.817     -2.67642    2.111414
        2013  |   .1881521   .7765561     0.24   0.809     -1.33387    1.710174
        2014  |   1.168063   .8106362     1.44   0.150    -.4207542    2.756881
        2015  |   .4352139   .7912592     0.55   0.582    -1.115626    1.986053
        2016  |  -.4882108   .9224776    -0.53   0.597    -2.296234    1.319812
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.795072   1.365862    -1.31   0.189    -4.472113     .881968
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.006453   .1910264                      1.632048    2.380858
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.727067   .2604709                      2.261491    3.288492
          rho |   .6933028   .0406187                      .6085451     .766743
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_a
> ff) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_s
> q active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     410.00
Log pseudolikelihood  = -836.45557              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.203311   1.652839    -1.94   0.053    -6.442817    .0361949
incomp_ideo~l |   .5013471   .5786007     0.87   0.386    -.6326895    1.635384
incomp_rel_~f |   .5612581   .4815243     1.17   0.244    -.3825122    1.505028
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |   .3693139   .6200786     0.60   0.551    -.8460179    1.584646
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |    .289217   .6864345     0.42   0.674     -1.05617    1.634604
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.510242   .7878055     3.19   0.001     .9661715    4.054312
  incomp_terr |  -1.023129   .4521015    -2.26   0.024    -1.909232   -.1370267
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0598822   .0327562    -1.83   0.068    -.1240832    .0043188
 vdem_rescale |  -.0362545   .0552843    -0.66   0.512    -.1446099    .0721008
vdem_rescal~q |   .0061647   .0079046     0.78   0.435    -.0093282    .0216575
 active_dyads |   .1087677   .1342673     0.81   0.418    -.1543913    .3719267
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.224837   1.314641    -0.93   0.351    -3.801487    1.351812
        1952  |  -1.481859   1.455898    -1.02   0.309    -4.335367     1.37165
        1953  |   .1694034   1.428883     0.12   0.906    -2.631155    2.969962
        1954  |  -3.010611   1.566954    -1.92   0.055    -6.081785    .0605627
        1955  |  -1.272427   2.109977    -0.60   0.546    -5.407906    2.863052
        1956  |  -2.229222   2.275683    -0.98   0.327    -6.689479    2.231035
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.440719   1.856226    -0.78   0.438    -5.078856    2.197417
        1959  |  -2.237856   1.980491    -1.13   0.258    -6.119547    1.643834
        1960  |  -3.113686   1.654663    -1.88   0.060    -6.356766    .1293951
        1961  |  -.8922359   1.566171    -0.57   0.569    -3.961875    2.177404
        1962  |  -.3367343    1.58503    -0.21   0.832    -3.443337    2.769868
        1963  |  -.3971981   1.601169    -0.25   0.804    -3.535432    2.741036
        1964  |  -1.168639   1.433075    -0.82   0.415    -3.977416    1.640137
        1965  |  -1.374604   1.461039    -0.94   0.347    -4.238188    1.488979
        1966  |   -1.20129   1.399504    -0.86   0.391    -3.944268    1.541688
        1967  |  -1.277061   1.394988    -0.92   0.360    -4.011187    1.457065
        1968  |  -1.535784   1.276871    -1.20   0.229    -4.038406     .966838
        1969  |  -1.226718   1.330274    -0.92   0.356    -3.834007     1.38057
        1970  |  -1.358303    1.32165    -1.03   0.304     -3.94869    1.232084
        1971  |  -.3968768   1.173529    -0.34   0.735     -2.69695    1.903197
        1972  |  -2.125129   1.362308    -1.56   0.119    -4.795203    .5449453
        1973  |  -2.855992   1.527611    -1.87   0.062    -5.850053    .1380702
        1974  |  -1.148387    1.41023    -0.81   0.415    -3.912387    1.615614
        1975  |  -.9625862   1.347084    -0.71   0.475    -3.602822     1.67765
        1976  |  -.7223861    1.32369    -0.55   0.585    -3.316771    1.871998
        1977  |   -.972039   1.316035    -0.74   0.460    -3.551421    1.607343
        1978  |   .2923033   1.364025     0.21   0.830    -2.381136    2.965743
        1979  |  -1.388214   1.332803    -1.04   0.298    -4.000459    1.224032
        1980  |  -1.045069   1.321279    -0.79   0.429    -3.634727     1.54459
        1981  |  -1.116266   1.379485    -0.81   0.418    -3.820008    1.587476
        1982  |  -.5949576   1.306949    -0.46   0.649     -3.15653    1.966615
        1983  |  -.7772237   1.338225    -0.58   0.561    -3.400097     1.84565
        1984  |  -.5503258   1.296369    -0.42   0.671    -3.091162     1.99051
        1985  |  -.8249501   1.324231    -0.62   0.533    -3.420395    1.770495
        1986  |  -1.299015   1.341563    -0.97   0.333     -3.92843      1.3304
        1987  |  -1.033929    1.34064    -0.77   0.441    -3.661535    1.593677
        1988  |  -.2780667   1.301751    -0.21   0.831    -2.829452    2.273319
        1989  |  -1.870528   1.330073    -1.41   0.160    -4.477424     .736368
        1990  |  -1.562017   1.367763    -1.14   0.253    -4.242784     1.11875
        1991  |   1.027811   .9387561     1.09   0.274    -.8121169     2.86774
        1992  |   1.807992   .9292305     1.95   0.052    -.0132661     3.62925
        1993  |   1.082118   .9907631     1.09   0.275    -.8597424    3.023977
        1994  |   1.328332   1.063039     1.25   0.211     -.755187     3.41185
        1995  |   1.181249   1.029294     1.15   0.251    -.8361308     3.19863
        1996  |   .9760338   1.015007     0.96   0.336    -1.013344    2.965411
        1997  |      .9484    .948048     1.00   0.317      -.90974     2.80654
        1998  |     1.8463   .9323864     1.98   0.048     .0188558    3.673743
        1999  |   1.805588   .9158057     1.97   0.049     .0106419    3.600534
        2000  |   1.115337    .968759     1.15   0.250    -.7833954     3.01407
        2001  |   .6214598   .9546192     0.65   0.515    -1.249559    2.492479
        2002  |   1.346093   1.045007     1.29   0.198    -.7020832     3.39427
        2003  |   .3155569   1.411128     0.22   0.823    -2.450202    3.081316
        2004  |   1.463542   1.206435     1.21   0.225    -.9010267     3.82811
        2005  |   .6221465   1.140362     0.55   0.585    -1.612922    2.857215
        2006  |  -.6321216   .7996828    -0.79   0.429    -2.199471    .9352278
        2007  |  -.2672214   .7924708    -0.34   0.736    -1.820436    1.285993
        2008  |  -.1261853    .863579    -0.15   0.884    -1.818769    1.566398
        2009  |   .1372699   .9841292     0.14   0.889    -1.791588    2.066128
        2010  |  -.3697792   .9146086    -0.40   0.686    -2.162379    1.422821
        2011  |   .0839363   1.055635     0.08   0.937    -1.985071    2.152944
        2012  |   -.297953    1.22182    -0.24   0.807    -2.692676     2.09677
        2013  |   .1764532   .7804009     0.23   0.821    -1.353105    1.706011
        2014  |   1.162611   .8124357     1.43   0.152    -.4297333    2.754956
        2015  |   .4362888    .790364     0.55   0.581    -1.112796    1.985374
        2016  |  -.4977028   .9237139    -0.54   0.590    -2.308149    1.312743
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.499732   1.452422    -1.03   0.302    -4.346426    1.346962
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |    2.00042   .1929142                      1.622315    2.378525
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.718852   .2622527                      2.250511    3.284657
          rho |   .6920183   .0411156                       .606224    .7663254
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_i
> ran_rev i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(74)     =     403.18
Log pseudolikelihood  = -836.76728              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .6628711   .4312095     1.54   0.124    -.1822841    1.508026
incomp_rel_~f |   .7226606   .3626506     1.99   0.046     .0118784    1.433443
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.492242   .7982417     3.12   0.002     .9277174    4.056767
  incomp_terr |   -1.03845   .4489483    -2.31   0.021    -1.918372   -.1585275
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0593705   .0323385    -1.84   0.066    -.1227527    .0040117
 vdem_rescale |  -.0357355   .0549708    -0.65   0.516    -.1434763    .0720054
vdem_rescal~q |   .0069122   .0080016     0.86   0.388    -.0087707    .0225951
 active_dyads |   .1122504   .1320892     0.85   0.395    -.1466397    .3711405
post_iran_rev |  -2.720961   1.463184    -1.86   0.063    -5.588749    .1468266
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.212863   1.313903    -0.92   0.356    -3.788065    1.362339
        1952  |  -1.469082   1.450413    -1.01   0.311     -4.31184    1.373675
        1953  |   .1953886   1.434186     0.14   0.892    -2.615564    3.006341
        1954  |  -2.982661   1.565946    -1.90   0.057    -6.051859    .0865374
        1955  |  -1.236672   2.124478    -0.58   0.560    -5.400573    2.927229
        1956  |   -2.23519   2.285108    -0.98   0.328     -6.71392    2.243539
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.409834    1.86268    -0.76   0.449    -5.060619    2.240951
        1959  |  -2.229697   1.984104    -1.12   0.261    -6.118468    1.659075
        1960  |  -3.073757   1.651947    -1.86   0.063    -6.311514    .1640006
        1961  |  -.8503122   1.565958    -0.54   0.587    -3.919533    2.218908
        1962  |   -.297504   1.581518    -0.19   0.851    -3.397223    2.802215
        1963  |  -.3435954    1.55635    -0.22   0.825    -3.393985    2.706794
        1964  |  -1.102851   1.396787    -0.79   0.430    -3.840504    1.634801
        1965  |  -1.307658   1.432212    -0.91   0.361    -4.114742    1.499426
        1966  |  -1.141078   1.369478    -0.83   0.405    -3.825205     1.54305
        1967  |   -1.21858    1.36297    -0.89   0.371    -3.889952    1.452792
        1968  |  -1.479856   1.273222    -1.16   0.245    -3.975325    1.015613
        1969  |  -1.165508   1.324493    -0.88   0.379    -3.761466     1.43045
        1970  |  -1.296947   1.318954    -0.98   0.325     -3.88205    1.288155
        1971  |  -.3218449   1.158707    -0.28   0.781     -2.59287     1.94918
        1972  |  -2.056802   1.361217    -1.51   0.131    -4.724738    .6111349
        1973  |   -2.82106   1.554662    -1.81   0.070    -5.868141    .2260203
        1974  |  -1.088084   1.405648    -0.77   0.439    -3.843104    1.666937
        1975  |  -.9037058   1.338185    -0.68   0.499      -3.5265    1.719088
        1976  |  -.6591152   1.312482    -0.50   0.616    -3.231532    1.913302
        1977  |  -.9127704   1.305949    -0.70   0.485    -3.472384    1.646843
        1978  |   .3557587   1.346823     0.26   0.792    -2.283965    2.995482
        1979  |  -1.317839    1.32173    -1.00   0.319    -3.908383    1.272705
        1980  |   1.743972   .9931702     1.76   0.079    -.2026055     3.69055
        1981  |   1.671505   .9915136     1.69   0.092    -.2718259    3.614836
        1982  |   2.193354    .947024     2.32   0.021     .3372211    4.049487
        1983  |   2.006935   .9597947     2.09   0.037     .1257715    3.888098
        1984  |   2.233033   .9367938     2.38   0.017     .3969513    4.069116
        1985  |   1.962184   .9388166     2.09   0.037     .1221376    3.802231
        1986  |   1.500794   .9425903     1.59   0.111    -.3466487    3.348237
        1987  |   1.756971   .9161862     1.92   0.055    -.0387211    3.552663
        1988  |   2.516024   .9145543     2.75   0.006     .7235304    4.308517
        1989  |   .9222042   .9601209     0.96   0.337    -.9595982    2.804007
        1990  |   1.227296   .9657171     1.27   0.204    -.6654752    3.120066
        1991  |   1.004475   .9290607     1.08   0.280    -.8164504    2.825401
        1992  |   1.807016   .9264099     1.95   0.051    -.0087136    3.622746
        1993  |   1.083755   .9896933     1.10   0.273    -.8560077    3.023519
        1994  |   1.306941   1.060472     1.23   0.218    -.7715447    3.385428
        1995  |   1.171061   1.022353     1.15   0.252    -.8327137    3.174835
        1996  |   .9777347    1.01241     0.97   0.334    -1.006553    2.962023
        1997  |   .9562297   .9479115     1.01   0.313    -.9016427    2.814102
        1998  |   1.851827   .9285087     1.99   0.046     .0319835    3.671671
        1999  |   1.815186   .9208975     1.97   0.049     .0102606    3.620112
        2000  |   1.129923   .9672574     1.17   0.243    -.7658666    3.025713
        2001  |    .647847   .9521317     0.68   0.496    -1.218297    2.513991
        2002  |   1.362771   1.039987     1.31   0.190     -.675567    3.401108
        2003  |   .3137863   1.409489     0.22   0.824    -2.448761    3.076334
        2004  |    1.47009   1.201974     1.22   0.221     -.885736    3.825916
        2005  |   .6425461   1.138423     0.56   0.572    -1.588722    2.873815
        2006  |  -.6076619   .8049192    -0.75   0.450    -2.185275    .9699508
        2007  |  -.2396173   .7966616    -0.30   0.764    -1.801045    1.321811
        2008  |  -.1060977   .8654177    -0.12   0.902    -1.802285     1.59009
        2009  |   .1575035   .9821113     0.16   0.873    -1.767399    2.082406
        2010  |  -.3581664    .912141    -0.39   0.695     -2.14593    1.429597
        2011  |   .1040407     1.0564     0.10   0.922    -1.966465    2.174547
        2012  |   -.282503   1.221409    -0.23   0.817     -2.67642    2.111414
        2013  |   .1881521   .7765561     0.24   0.809     -1.33387    1.710174
        2014  |   1.168063   .8106362     1.44   0.150    -.4207542    2.756881
        2015  |   .4352139   .7912592     0.55   0.582    -1.115626    1.986053
        2016  |  -.4882108   .9224776    -0.53   0.597    -2.296234    1.319812
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.795072   1.365862    -1.31   0.189    -4.472113     .881968
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.006453   .1910264                      1.632048    2.380858
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.727067   .2604709                      2.261491    3.288492
          rho |   .6933028   .0406187                      .6085451     .766743
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_iran_rev##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_a
> ff) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_s
> q active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     430.82
Log pseudolikelihood  = -832.15544              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_iran~v |  -3.209262    1.77399    -1.81   0.070    -6.686219    .2676947
incomp_ideo~l |   .0402543   .8169551     0.05   0.961    -1.560948    1.641457
incomp_rel_~f |    1.59555    .705863     2.26   0.024     .2120842    2.979016
              |
post_iran_rev#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |   .8827295   .8568246     1.03   0.303    -.7966159    2.562075
              |
post_iran_rev#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   -1.25212   .8347979    -1.50   0.134    -2.888293     .384054
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.732744   .8449734     3.23   0.001     1.076627    4.388862
  incomp_terr |  -1.072265   .4615487    -2.32   0.020    -1.976883   -.1676457
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.054446   .0369028    -1.48   0.140    -.1267742    .0178821
 vdem_rescale |  -.0391964   .0563897    -0.70   0.487    -.1497183    .0713255
vdem_rescal~q |   .0054357   .0080399     0.68   0.499    -.0103223    .0211937
 active_dyads |   .0758468   .1335222     0.57   0.570    -.1858519    .3375455
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.083721   1.309402    -0.83   0.408    -3.650102     1.48266
        1952  |  -1.332535   1.445666    -0.92   0.357    -4.165989    1.500919
        1953  |   .2659016   1.413697     0.19   0.851    -2.504893    3.036697
        1954  |  -2.872776   1.592094    -1.80   0.071    -5.993223     .247672
        1955  |  -1.187287   2.109695    -0.56   0.574    -5.322213    2.947639
        1956  |  -2.194129   2.239308    -0.98   0.327    -6.583092    2.194835
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.448535   1.861297    -0.78   0.436    -5.096609    2.199539
        1959  |  -2.240427   1.975368    -1.13   0.257    -6.112076    1.631223
        1960  |  -3.054557   1.690531    -1.81   0.071    -6.367937     .258823
        1961  |  -.9509166   1.601801    -0.59   0.553    -4.090388    2.188555
        1962  |  -.4514488     1.6365    -0.28   0.783    -3.658931    2.756033
        1963  |  -.8273433   1.750737    -0.47   0.637    -4.258725    2.604038
        1964  |  -1.440904   1.525524    -0.94   0.345    -4.430875    1.549068
        1965  |  -1.632368   1.613944    -1.01   0.312    -4.795641    1.530904
        1966  |  -1.483891   1.531743    -0.97   0.333    -4.486052     1.51827
        1967  |  -1.547403   1.478962    -1.05   0.295    -4.446115    1.351309
        1968  |  -1.815898   1.323975    -1.37   0.170     -4.41084     .779045
        1969  |  -1.454799   1.440218    -1.01   0.312    -4.277575    1.367977
        1970  |  -1.583568   1.375205    -1.15   0.250     -4.27892    1.111785
        1971  |  -.6077769    1.25555    -0.48   0.628     -3.06861    1.853057
        1972  |  -2.402314    1.39112    -1.73   0.084     -5.12886    .3242317
        1973  |  -3.172984    1.62164    -1.96   0.050     -6.35134    .0053724
        1974  |  -1.333081   1.494976    -0.89   0.373    -4.263179    1.597017
        1975  |  -1.213568   1.426345    -0.85   0.395    -4.009153    1.582017
        1976  |  -1.027103   1.375132    -0.75   0.455    -3.722313    1.668106
        1977  |  -1.304787    1.37058    -0.95   0.341    -3.991074      1.3815
        1978  |   .0340926   1.389009     0.02   0.980    -2.688316    2.756501
        1979  |  -1.683996   1.375922    -1.22   0.221    -4.380754    1.012762
        1980  |    1.81185    1.01829     1.78   0.075    -.1839626    3.807662
        1981  |   1.733422   1.010533     1.72   0.086    -.2471853     3.71403
        1982  |   2.259347   .9747631     2.32   0.020     .3488467    4.169848
        1983  |   2.041645   .9779537     2.09   0.037     .1248913      3.9584
        1984  |   2.295647   .9609476     2.39   0.017     .4122246     4.17907
        1985  |   2.000651   .9586838     2.09   0.037     .1216648    3.879636
        1986  |   1.530415   .9651902     1.59   0.113    -.3613227    3.422153
        1987  |   1.786383   .9405284     1.90   0.058    -.0570192    3.629784
        1988  |   2.537869   .9288163     2.73   0.006     .7174225    4.358316
        1989  |   .9324919   .9843419     0.95   0.343    -.9967828    2.861767
        1990  |   1.252538   .9938236     1.26   0.208    -.6953208    3.200396
        1991  |   1.035201   .9558769     1.08   0.279    -.8382835    2.908685
        1992  |   1.828337    .944822     1.94   0.053    -.0234797    3.680154
        1993  |   1.095994   1.003593     1.09   0.275    -.8710125       3.063
        1994  |   1.338698   1.073339     1.25   0.212     -.765008    3.442405
        1995  |   1.180256   1.039274     1.14   0.256    -.8566831    3.217195
        1996  |    .985141   1.032783     0.95   0.340    -1.039076    3.009358
        1997  |   .9583707   .9658774     0.99   0.321    -.9347143    2.851456
        1998  |   1.873759   .9484931     1.98   0.048     .0147471    3.732772
        1999  |    1.80286    .937239     1.92   0.054    -.0340944    3.639815
        2000  |   1.131282   .9874972     1.15   0.252    -.8041766    3.066741
        2001  |   .6365937   .9732175     0.65   0.513    -1.270878    2.544065
        2002  |   1.376466   1.055382     1.30   0.192    -.6920435    3.444976
        2003  |   .3405391   1.418449     0.24   0.810    -2.439569    3.120647
        2004  |   1.467246   1.214256     1.21   0.227    -.9126522    3.847144
        2005  |   .6094507   1.159038     0.53   0.599    -1.662222    2.881124
        2006  |  -.6448179   .8178548    -0.79   0.430    -2.247784     .958148
        2007  |  -.2772223   .8034334    -0.35   0.730    -1.851923    1.297478
        2008  |  -.1549613   .8803729    -0.18   0.860    -1.880461    1.570538
        2009  |   .1321399   .9981857     0.13   0.895    -1.824268    2.088548
        2010  |  -.3787507   .9299612    -0.41   0.684    -2.201441     1.44394
        2011  |   .1253641   1.077374     0.12   0.907    -1.986249    2.236977
        2012  |  -.3175128    1.24397    -0.26   0.799    -2.755649    2.120623
        2013  |   .1710158   .7898396     0.22   0.829    -1.377041    1.719073
        2014  |   1.139611   .8235849     1.38   0.166    -.4745854    2.753808
        2015  |   .3936173   .8128901     0.48   0.628    -1.199618    1.986853
        2016  |   -.514873   .9384995    -0.55   0.583    -2.354298    1.324552
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.403851   1.663402    -0.84   0.399     -4.66406    1.856357
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.026018    .190446                       1.65275    2.399285
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.753875   .2622322                      2.285021     3.31893
          rho |   .6974471   .0401869                      .6134655    .7700224
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_2
> 001 i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(74)     =     403.18
Log pseudolikelihood  = -836.76728              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .6628711   .4312095     1.54   0.124    -.1822841    1.508026
incomp_rel_~f |   .7226606   .3626506     1.99   0.046     .0118784    1.433443
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.492242   .7982417     3.12   0.002     .9277174    4.056767
  incomp_terr |   -1.03845   .4489483    -2.31   0.021    -1.918372   -.1585275
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0593705   .0323385    -1.84   0.066    -.1227527    .0040117
 vdem_rescale |  -.0357355   .0549708    -0.65   0.516    -.1434763    .0720054
vdem_rescal~q |   .0069122   .0080016     0.86   0.388    -.0087707    .0225951
 active_dyads |   .1122504   .1320892     0.85   0.395    -.1466397    .3711405
    post_2001 |  -2.720961   1.463184    -1.86   0.063    -5.588749    .1468266
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.212863   1.313903    -0.92   0.356    -3.788065    1.362339
        1952  |  -1.469082   1.450413    -1.01   0.311     -4.31184    1.373675
        1953  |   .1953886   1.434186     0.14   0.892    -2.615564    3.006341
        1954  |  -2.982661   1.565946    -1.90   0.057    -6.051859    .0865374
        1955  |  -1.236672   2.124478    -0.58   0.560    -5.400573    2.927229
        1956  |   -2.23519   2.285108    -0.98   0.328     -6.71392    2.243539
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.409834    1.86268    -0.76   0.449    -5.060619    2.240951
        1959  |  -2.229697   1.984104    -1.12   0.261    -6.118468    1.659075
        1960  |  -3.073757   1.651947    -1.86   0.063    -6.311514    .1640006
        1961  |  -.8503122   1.565958    -0.54   0.587    -3.919533    2.218908
        1962  |   -.297504   1.581518    -0.19   0.851    -3.397223    2.802215
        1963  |  -.3435954    1.55635    -0.22   0.825    -3.393985    2.706794
        1964  |  -1.102851   1.396787    -0.79   0.430    -3.840504    1.634801
        1965  |  -1.307658   1.432212    -0.91   0.361    -4.114742    1.499426
        1966  |  -1.141078   1.369478    -0.83   0.405    -3.825205     1.54305
        1967  |   -1.21858    1.36297    -0.89   0.371    -3.889952    1.452792
        1968  |  -1.479856   1.273222    -1.16   0.245    -3.975325    1.015613
        1969  |  -1.165508   1.324493    -0.88   0.379    -3.761466     1.43045
        1970  |  -1.296947   1.318954    -0.98   0.325     -3.88205    1.288155
        1971  |  -.3218449   1.158707    -0.28   0.781     -2.59287     1.94918
        1972  |  -2.056802   1.361217    -1.51   0.131    -4.724738    .6111349
        1973  |   -2.82106   1.554662    -1.81   0.070    -5.868141    .2260203
        1974  |  -1.088084   1.405648    -0.77   0.439    -3.843104    1.666937
        1975  |  -.9037058   1.338185    -0.68   0.499      -3.5265    1.719088
        1976  |  -.6591152   1.312482    -0.50   0.616    -3.231532    1.913302
        1977  |  -.9127704   1.305949    -0.70   0.485    -3.472384    1.646843
        1978  |   .3557587   1.346823     0.26   0.792    -2.283965    2.995482
        1979  |  -1.317839    1.32173    -1.00   0.319    -3.908383    1.272705
        1980  |   -.976989   1.311034    -0.75   0.456    -3.546568     1.59259
        1981  |  -1.049456   1.357156    -0.77   0.439    -3.709432     1.61052
        1982  |  -.5276072   1.292969    -0.41   0.683    -3.061779    2.006565
        1983  |  -.7140267   1.318534    -0.54   0.588    -3.298306    1.870252
        1984  |  -.4879279   1.273357    -0.38   0.702    -2.983663    2.007807
        1985  |   -.758777   1.301727    -0.58   0.560    -3.310115    1.792561
        1986  |  -1.220167   1.324092    -0.92   0.357    -3.815339    1.375005
        1987  |  -.9639904   1.316045    -0.73   0.464    -3.543392    1.615411
        1988  |  -.2049374   1.286923    -0.16   0.873     -2.72726    2.317385
        1989  |  -1.798757   1.316991    -1.37   0.172    -4.380012    .7824975
        1990  |  -1.493666   1.355626    -1.10   0.271    -4.150643    1.163312
        1991  |  -1.716486    1.34838    -1.27   0.203    -4.359262      .92629
        1992  |  -.9139448   1.363415    -0.67   0.503     -3.58619      1.7583
        1993  |  -1.637206   1.384166    -1.18   0.237    -4.350121    1.075709
        1994  |   -1.41402   1.449038    -0.98   0.329    -4.254082    1.426042
        1995  |  -1.549901   1.424111    -1.09   0.276    -4.341106    1.241305
        1996  |  -1.743227   1.400565    -1.24   0.213    -4.488283     1.00183
        1997  |  -1.764732   1.377842    -1.28   0.200    -4.465252    .9357892
        1998  |  -.8691343   1.362596    -0.64   0.524    -3.539773    1.801505
        1999  |  -.9057748   1.366812    -0.66   0.508    -3.584676    1.773127
        2000  |  -1.591038   1.371679    -1.16   0.246     -4.27948    1.097404
        2001  |  -2.073114    1.37318    -1.51   0.131    -4.764497    .6182682
        2002  |   1.362771   1.039987     1.31   0.190     -.675567    3.401108
        2003  |   .3137863   1.409489     0.22   0.824    -2.448761    3.076334
        2004  |    1.47009   1.201974     1.22   0.221     -.885736    3.825916
        2005  |   .6425461   1.138423     0.56   0.572    -1.588722    2.873815
        2006  |  -.6076619   .8049192    -0.75   0.450    -2.185275    .9699508
        2007  |  -.2396173   .7966616    -0.30   0.764    -1.801045    1.321811
        2008  |  -.1060977   .8654177    -0.12   0.902    -1.802285     1.59009
        2009  |   .1575035   .9821113     0.16   0.873    -1.767399    2.082406
        2010  |  -.3581664    .912141    -0.39   0.695     -2.14593    1.429597
        2011  |   .1040407     1.0564     0.10   0.922    -1.966465    2.174547
        2012  |   -.282503   1.221409    -0.23   0.817     -2.67642    2.111414
        2013  |   .1881521   .7765561     0.24   0.809     -1.33387    1.710174
        2014  |   1.168063   .8106362     1.44   0.150    -.4207542    2.756881
        2015  |   .4352139   .7912592     0.55   0.582    -1.115626    1.986053
        2016  |  -.4882108   .9224776    -0.53   0.597    -2.296234    1.319812
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.795072   1.365862    -1.31   0.189    -4.472113     .881968
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.006453   .1910264                      1.632048    2.380858
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.727067   .2604709                      2.261491    3.288492
          rho |   .6933028   .0406187                      .6085451     .766743
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_2001##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_aff) 
> rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq ac
> tive_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     395.69
Log pseudolikelihood  = -835.34095              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  1.post_2001 |  -2.913552   1.803603    -1.62   0.106    -6.448549    .6214453
incomp_ideo~l |   .6030433    .474989     1.27   0.204    -.3279181    1.534005
incomp_rel_~f |   .9369599   .4462351     2.10   0.036     .0623551    1.811565
              |
    post_2001#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |   .6014534   .9193223     0.65   0.513    -1.200385    2.403292
              |
    post_2001#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |  -.7570807   .8016983    -0.94   0.345    -2.328381    .8142191
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.524121   .8011248     3.15   0.002     .9539452    4.094297
  incomp_terr |  -1.050564   .4572282    -2.30   0.022    -1.946715   -.1544132
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0572703    .032176    -1.78   0.075     -.120334    .0057934
 vdem_rescale |  -.0444254   .0560079    -0.79   0.428    -.1541987     .065348
vdem_rescal~q |   .0057537   .0077486     0.74   0.458    -.0094332    .0209407
 active_dyads |    .122899   .1318463     0.93   0.351    -.1355151     .381313
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.182185   1.312709    -0.90   0.368    -3.755047    1.390677
        1952  |  -1.430494   1.449184    -0.99   0.324    -4.270843    1.409855
        1953  |   .2338123   1.433465     0.16   0.870    -2.575727    3.043352
        1954  |  -2.932987   1.564758    -1.87   0.061    -5.999856    .1338824
        1955  |  -1.199084     2.1139    -0.57   0.571    -5.342252    2.944084
        1956  |  -2.211102   2.272865    -0.97   0.331    -6.665835    2.243632
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.39184   1.858468    -0.75   0.454     -5.03437    2.250689
        1959  |  -2.212636   1.977263    -1.12   0.263       -6.088    1.662728
        1960  |  -3.053434   1.651393    -1.85   0.064    -6.290105    .1832373
        1961  |  -.8501725   1.563971    -0.54   0.587    -3.915499    2.215154
        1962  |  -.3088485   1.583178    -0.20   0.845    -3.411821    2.794124
        1963  |  -.4013206   1.569783    -0.26   0.798    -3.478038    2.675397
        1964  |  -1.130731   1.408153    -0.80   0.422    -3.890661    1.629198
        1965  |   -1.33189   1.444961    -0.92   0.357     -4.16396    1.500181
        1966  |  -1.172519   1.381555    -0.85   0.396    -3.880316    1.535278
        1967  |   -1.24575   1.376437    -0.91   0.365    -3.943516    1.452017
        1968  |  -1.508195   1.278977    -1.18   0.238    -4.014944    .9985547
        1969  |  -1.193021   1.331537    -0.90   0.370    -3.802785    1.416744
        1970  |  -1.326156   1.325417    -1.00   0.317    -3.923924    1.271613
        1971  |  -.3476169   1.168378    -0.30   0.766    -2.637596    1.942362
        1972  |  -2.081394   1.366144    -1.52   0.128    -4.758987    .5961984
        1973  |  -2.829549   1.547558    -1.83   0.067    -5.862707    .2036093
        1974  |   -1.10343    1.41127    -0.78   0.434     -3.86947    1.662609
        1975  |  -.9243157   1.342025    -0.69   0.491    -3.554637    1.706005
        1976  |  -.6850153   1.315899    -0.52   0.603    -3.264129    1.894099
        1977  |  -.9391591   1.309587    -0.72   0.473    -3.505902    1.627584
        1978  |    .330919   1.352873     0.24   0.807    -2.320664    2.982502
        1979  |  -1.345302   1.327197    -1.01   0.311    -3.946559    1.255956
        1980  |  -1.004104   1.317148    -0.76   0.446    -3.585667     1.57746
        1981  |  -1.081894   1.365757    -0.79   0.428    -3.758728     1.59494
        1982  |   -.560631   1.297907    -0.43   0.666    -3.104481    1.983219
        1983  |  -.7480739    1.32534    -0.56   0.572    -3.345692    1.849545
        1984  |  -.5212776   1.277622    -0.41   0.683     -3.02537    1.982815
        1985  |  -.7872038   1.309181    -0.60   0.548    -3.353151    1.778744
        1986  |  -1.252453   1.330661    -0.94   0.347    -3.860502    1.355595
        1987  |   -1.00355   1.322109    -0.76   0.448    -3.594835    1.587735
        1988  |  -.2289651   1.293632    -0.18   0.860    -2.764438    2.306507
        1989  |  -1.814494   1.320753    -1.37   0.169    -4.403122    .7741348
        1990  |  -1.524828   1.360696    -1.12   0.262    -4.191744    1.142088
        1991  |  -1.763577   1.352548    -1.30   0.192    -4.414522    .8873673
        1992  |  -.9616461   1.369315    -0.70   0.483    -3.645455    1.722163
        1993  |  -1.694013     1.3905    -1.22   0.223    -4.419343    1.031318
        1994  |  -1.466036   1.454107    -1.01   0.313    -4.316034    1.383962
        1995  |  -1.586158   1.431148    -1.11   0.268    -4.391156    1.218841
        1996  |  -1.779639   1.407752    -1.26   0.206    -4.538783    .9795047
        1997  |   -1.79635   1.387115    -1.30   0.195    -4.515046     .922345
        1998  |  -.9025099   1.368578    -0.66   0.510    -3.584873    1.779853
        1999  |  -.9413148    1.37125    -0.69   0.492    -3.628916    1.746286
        2000  |  -1.641495   1.374273    -1.19   0.232    -4.335021    1.052032
        2001  |  -2.121044   1.378537    -1.54   0.124    -4.822926    .5808382
        2002  |   1.366598   1.024017     1.33   0.182    -.6404393    3.373635
        2003  |   .4015932   1.362426     0.29   0.768    -2.268712    3.071899
        2004  |   1.438794   1.180868     1.22   0.223    -.8756652    3.753254
        2005  |   .6261228   1.105057     0.57   0.571     -1.53975    2.791995
        2006  |  -.6236527   .8099056    -0.77   0.441    -2.211038     .963733
        2007  |  -.2577398    .791323    -0.33   0.745    -1.808704    1.293225
        2008  |  -.1666995   .8684234    -0.19   0.848    -1.868778    1.535379
        2009  |   .1167961   .9771814     0.12   0.905    -1.798444    2.032036
        2010  |  -.4318398   .9064446    -0.48   0.634    -2.208439    1.344759
        2011  |   .0675425   1.063892     0.06   0.949    -2.017648    2.152733
        2012  |  -.3061128   1.228892    -0.25   0.803    -2.714698    2.102472
        2013  |   .1488211   .7786294     0.19   0.848    -1.377265    1.674907
        2014  |   1.123484   .8138458     1.38   0.167    -.4716242    2.718593
        2015  |   .3766184   .8044084     0.47   0.640    -1.199993     1.95323
        2016  |  -.4760734   .9242201    -0.52   0.606    -2.287512    1.335365
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.861396   1.398893    -1.33   0.183    -4.603176    .8803848
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |    2.00723   .1903458                      1.634159    2.380301
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.728126   .2596436                      2.263878    3.287575
          rho |   .6934679   .0404618                      .6090478    .7666433
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ********************
. * Table A5-C. Conflict Intensity - Dyadic - Specific, Different Temporal Thres
> holds (post-Iranian Revolution, post-Cold War, post-9/11) *
. ******************************************************************************
> ********************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_c
> old_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1096.6684  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.9681  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7917  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1023.5799
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -983.16473
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -954.40463
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -933.00299
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -917.02309
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -905.97131
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -899.94022
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -902.34451

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -899.80311  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -846.65121  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.17792  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.91315  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -835.8999  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -835.8999  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.89557  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.89557  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     412.14
Log pseudolikelihood  = -835.89557              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |    .511696   .4949748     1.03   0.301    -.4584368    1.481829
 Theological  |   1.274243   .5789056     2.20   0.028     .1396091    2.408877
        Both  |    .858361   .5317748     1.61   0.106    -.1838984     1.90062
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .6694326   .3683447     1.82   0.069    -.0525097    1.391375
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.559659   .7999802     3.20   0.001     .9917267    4.127592
  incomp_terr |  -.9287571   .4388145    -2.12   0.034    -1.788818   -.0686965
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0594213   .0317945    -1.87   0.062    -.1217374    .0028948
 vdem_rescale |   -.030801   .0549789    -0.56   0.575    -.1385576    .0769556
vdem_rescal~q |   .0067126   .0081319     0.83   0.409    -.0092257    .0226509
 active_dyads |   .1097072    .129779     0.85   0.398    -.1446549    .3640694
post_cold_war |  -2.950633   1.476611    -2.00   0.046    -5.844738    -.056528
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.195083   1.294631    -0.92   0.356    -3.732513    1.342346
        1952  |  -1.467742   1.430642    -1.03   0.305    -4.271749    1.336266
        1953  |   .1594947   1.405171     0.11   0.910     -2.59459     2.91358
        1954  |  -2.970555    1.55372    -1.91   0.056     -6.01579    .0746807
        1955  |  -1.271168   2.095255    -0.61   0.544    -5.377792    2.835455
        1956  |  -2.234838   2.263872    -0.99   0.324    -6.671946    2.202269
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.434486   1.843324    -0.78   0.436    -5.047335    2.178362
        1959  |  -2.232749   1.961036    -1.14   0.255    -6.076309     1.61081
        1960  |  -3.068656   1.637213    -1.87   0.061    -6.277536    .1402227
        1961  |  -.8966293   1.541235    -0.58   0.561    -3.917395    2.124137
        1962  |  -.3392922   1.556603    -0.22   0.827    -3.390177    2.711593
        1963  |  -.4098577   1.551218    -0.26   0.792    -3.450189    2.630474
        1964  |  -1.175105   1.392673    -0.84   0.399    -3.904694    1.554484
        1965  |  -1.372671   1.420847    -0.97   0.334    -4.157479    1.412137
        1966  |  -1.198975   1.359092    -0.88   0.378    -3.862747    1.464797
        1967  |  -1.273393   1.356769    -0.94   0.348    -3.932612    1.385826
        1968  |  -1.534663   1.259245    -1.22   0.223    -4.002737     .933412
        1969  |   -1.23537   1.307591    -0.94   0.345    -3.798202    1.327462
        1970  |  -1.368923   1.303202    -1.05   0.294    -3.923152    1.185307
        1971  |  -.4036143   1.146562    -0.35   0.725    -2.650834    1.843605
        1972  |  -2.134814   1.344724    -1.59   0.112    -4.770425    .5007959
        1973  |  -2.872688   1.521877    -1.89   0.059    -5.855512    .1101359
        1974  |  -1.168221   1.387843    -0.84   0.400    -3.888343    1.551902
        1975  |  -.9886378   1.322432    -0.75   0.455    -3.580557    1.603282
        1976  |  -.7464265   1.301513    -0.57   0.566    -3.297345    1.804492
        1977  |  -.9970903   1.293024    -0.77   0.441    -3.531371     1.53719
        1978  |    .269804   1.335243     0.20   0.840    -2.347224    2.886832
        1979  |  -1.415416   1.310489    -1.08   0.280    -3.983926    1.153095
        1980  |  -1.072465   1.299943    -0.83   0.409    -3.620307    1.475377
        1981  |  -1.142308   1.352017    -0.84   0.398    -3.792212    1.507596
        1982  |  -.6304211   1.282343    -0.49   0.623    -3.143767    1.882925
        1983  |  -.8177782   1.310063    -0.62   0.532    -3.385455    1.749899
        1984  |  -.5935237   1.264513    -0.47   0.639    -3.071924    1.884877
        1985  |   -.859423   1.291256    -0.67   0.506    -3.390239    1.671393
        1986  |  -1.332762   1.314643    -1.01   0.311    -3.909415    1.243891
        1987  |  -1.076056   1.314424    -0.82   0.413    -3.652279    1.500167
        1988  |  -.3277604   1.276194    -0.26   0.797    -2.829054    2.173533
        1989  |  -1.917171   1.315038    -1.46   0.145    -4.494598    .6602559
        1990  |  -1.619248   1.363935    -1.19   0.235    -4.292511    1.054015
        1991  |   1.093985   .9174017     1.19   0.233    -.7040896    2.892059
        1992  |    1.83517   .9153908     2.00   0.045     .0410375    3.629303
        1993  |   1.099579   .9756475     1.13   0.260    -.8126553    3.011813
        1994  |   1.337746   1.051541     1.27   0.203    -.7232375    3.398728
        1995  |   1.202573   1.012654     1.19   0.235    -.7821919    3.187337
        1996  |   1.010936   1.005209     1.01   0.315    -.9592373    2.981109
        1997  |   1.004281   .9255814     1.09   0.278    -.8098258    2.818387
        1998  |   1.894203   .9078941     2.09   0.037     .1147637    3.673643
        1999  |   1.817797   .9055257     2.01   0.045     .0429991    3.592595
        2000  |   1.133148   .9495591     1.19   0.233     -.727954    2.994249
        2001  |   .6952086   .9318149     0.75   0.456    -1.131115    2.521532
        2002  |   1.401256   1.020282     1.37   0.170    -.5984607    3.400972
        2003  |   .3326028   1.404758     0.24   0.813    -2.420673    3.085878
        2004  |   1.472212   1.190134     1.24   0.216    -.8604076    3.804831
        2005  |   .6733959   1.124811     0.60   0.549    -1.531193    2.877985
        2006  |  -.5943349   .7967946    -0.75   0.456    -2.156024    .9673538
        2007  |  -.2735124   .8107355    -0.34   0.736    -1.862525      1.3155
        2008  |  -.1512447   .8454421    -0.18   0.858    -1.808281    1.505791
        2009  |   .1290486   .9688445     0.13   0.894    -1.769852    2.027949
        2010  |  -.4287544   .8803488    -0.49   0.626    -2.154206    1.296698
        2011  |   .1310513   1.043122     0.13   0.900    -1.913431    2.175533
        2012  |  -.2669406   1.213356    -0.22   0.826    -2.645075    2.111194
        2013  |   .1943825   .7686865     0.25   0.800    -1.312215     1.70098
        2014  |   1.152153   .7999383     1.44   0.150    -.4156974    2.720003
        2015  |   .4453806   .7848435     0.57   0.570    -1.092884    1.983646
        2016  |  -.4691206    .908563    -0.52   0.606    -2.249871     1.31163
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.626415   1.409586    -1.15   0.249    -4.389152    1.136322
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.974718   .1914618                      1.599459    2.349976
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.684136   .2569548                       2.22494    3.238104
          rho |   .6865136    .041205                       .600755    .7611743
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff
> ) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq 
> active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.4903  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1068.0065  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.7691  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.7688  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.7688  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1067.7688
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1011.8188
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -974.26235
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -947.26407
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -927.11033
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -912.27503
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -901.58212
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood =  -895.0704
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -895.72716

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -895.25985  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -840.96004  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.52149  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.20388  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.18922  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.18922  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.18451  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.18451  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(80)     =     442.33
Log pseudolikelihood  = -829.18451              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.677962   1.639447    -2.24   0.025    -6.891218   -.4647058
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .2485579   .5990082     0.41   0.678    -.9254766    1.422592
 Theological  |   1.240308   .8916565     1.39   0.164    -.5073068    2.987922
        Both  |   2.053011   .7517198     2.73   0.006     .5796675    3.526355
              |
incomp_rel_~f |    .470891   .4814607     0.98   0.328    -.4727547    1.414537
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |   .8267403   .6971143     1.19   0.236    -.5395786    2.193059
           1 #|
 Theological  |   .3706493   .8522387     0.43   0.664    -1.299708    2.041006
      1#Both  |  -1.822791   .8191035    -2.23   0.026    -3.428204   -.2173775
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .4196611   .6653221     0.63   0.528    -.8843464    1.723668
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.590479   .7872207     3.29   0.001     1.047555    4.133404
  incomp_terr |  -.9578347   .4485764    -2.14   0.033    -1.837028   -.0786411
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0537137   .0323369    -1.66   0.097    -.1170928    .0096654
 vdem_rescale |  -.0307393   .0592199    -0.52   0.604    -.1468081    .0853295
vdem_rescal~q |   .0066698   .0081461     0.82   0.413    -.0092963    .0226358
 active_dyads |   .0221786   .1227026     0.18   0.857    -.2183141    .2626713
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.223997   1.287371    -0.95   0.342    -3.747198    1.299203
        1952  |  -1.475162   1.430998    -1.03   0.303    -4.279867    1.329542
        1953  |   .0364179   1.346134     0.03   0.978    -2.601955    2.674791
        1954  |  -3.035215   1.552347    -1.96   0.051    -6.077759    .0073297
        1955  |  -1.323211   2.075751    -0.64   0.524    -5.391607    2.745186
        1956  |  -2.253088   2.246766    -1.00   0.316    -6.656668    2.150493
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.522228    1.82808    -0.83   0.405    -5.105199    2.060744
        1959  |  -2.293408   1.961612    -1.17   0.242    -6.138097     1.55128
        1960  |  -3.190202   1.642373    -1.94   0.052    -6.409194    .0287905
        1961  |  -1.065772   1.536822    -0.69   0.488    -4.077887    1.946343
        1962  |  -.5025296   1.559307    -0.32   0.747    -3.558715    2.553656
        1963  |  -.6172726   1.607712    -0.38   0.701     -3.76833    2.533785
        1964  |  -1.409598   1.433852    -0.98   0.326    -4.219897    1.400701
        1965  |  -1.607218   1.452733    -1.11   0.269    -4.454522    1.240087
        1966  |  -1.376731   1.395204    -0.99   0.324     -4.11128    1.357818
        1967  |   -1.46521   1.392127    -1.05   0.293    -4.193728    1.263308
        1968  |  -1.734865   1.256853    -1.38   0.167    -4.198252    .7285216
        1969  |  -1.447385   1.303778    -1.11   0.267    -4.002744    1.107973
        1970  |  -1.575626   1.294901    -1.22   0.224    -4.113585    .9623338
        1971  |  -.6283774   1.151906    -0.55   0.585    -2.886072    1.629317
        1972  |  -2.388559   1.334661    -1.79   0.074    -5.004447    .2273292
        1973  |  -3.062016   1.461511    -2.10   0.036    -5.926525   -.1975078
        1974  |  -1.404056   1.381863    -1.02   0.310    -4.112459    1.304346
        1975  |   -1.20307   1.323627    -0.91   0.363     -3.79733    1.391191
        1976  |  -.9752955   1.311014    -0.74   0.457    -3.544835    1.594244
        1977  |  -1.196911   1.296668    -0.92   0.356    -3.738334    1.344513
        1978  |    .058468   1.346828     0.04   0.965    -2.581266    2.698202
        1979  |  -1.721583   1.311392    -1.31   0.189    -4.291865    .8486993
        1980  |  -1.419624   1.309021    -1.08   0.278    -3.985258     1.14601
        1981  |  -1.466942   1.383076    -1.06   0.289    -4.177721    1.243836
        1982  |  -.9422387   1.293691    -0.73   0.466    -3.477826    1.593349
        1983  |  -1.119968   1.342456    -0.83   0.404    -3.751133    1.511197
        1984  |  -.8598536   1.294811    -0.66   0.507    -3.397637     1.67793
        1985  |   -1.13578   1.320444    -0.86   0.390    -3.723803    1.452244
        1986  |  -1.642531   1.338109    -1.23   0.220    -4.265176    .9801133
        1987  |  -1.372808   1.344257    -1.02   0.307    -4.007503    1.261887
        1988  |  -.6035308    1.30519    -0.46   0.644    -3.161657    1.954595
        1989  |  -2.288283   1.371164    -1.67   0.095    -4.975715    .3991491
        1990  |   -1.95451    1.42223    -1.37   0.169    -4.742029    .8330091
        1991  |   1.231818   .8975574     1.37   0.170    -.5273618    2.990999
        1992  |   1.807217   .8971656     2.01   0.044     .0488049    3.565629
        1993  |   1.133871   .9643016     1.18   0.240    -.7561253    3.023867
        1994  |   1.327535   1.029755     1.29   0.197    -.6907478    3.345817
        1995  |   1.180052   .9947689     1.19   0.236    -.7696597    3.129763
        1996  |   1.037472    .986167     1.05   0.293    -.8953797    2.970324
        1997  |   .9843639    .915189     1.08   0.282    -.8093736    2.778101
        1998  |   1.861673   .8956634     2.08   0.038     .1062053    3.617141
        1999  |   1.778612   .8913394     2.00   0.046     .0316187    3.525605
        2000  |   1.071254   .9429795     1.14   0.256    -.7769517     2.91946
        2001  |   .6847568    .912574     0.75   0.453    -1.103855    2.473369
        2002  |   1.400075   1.014453     1.38   0.168    -.5882169    3.388366
        2003  |   .4342386   1.339767     0.32   0.746    -2.191656    3.060133
        2004  |   1.509636   1.151221     1.31   0.190    -.7467166    3.765988
        2005  |   .6443893   1.108631     0.58   0.561    -1.528488    2.817267
        2006  |   -.594079   .7612058    -0.78   0.435    -2.086015    .8978569
        2007  |  -.3707401   .8346643    -0.44   0.657    -2.006652    1.265172
        2008  |  -.2673618   .7922775    -0.34   0.736    -1.820197    1.285473
        2009  |   .0112199   .9448646     0.01   0.991    -1.840681     1.86312
        2010  |  -.5482452    .839875    -0.65   0.514     -2.19437     1.09788
        2011  |   .1743554   1.020595     0.17   0.864    -1.825974    2.174685
        2012  |  -.2830193   1.210136    -0.23   0.815    -2.654843    2.088804
        2013  |   .2269516   .7716683     0.29   0.769     -1.28549    1.739394
        2014  |   1.154525   .7892352     1.46   0.144    -.3923475    2.701398
        2015  |    .427057   .7723269     0.55   0.580    -1.086676     1.94079
        2016  |   -.491177   .9138634    -0.54   0.591    -2.282316    1.299962
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.219502   1.472097    -0.83   0.407    -4.104759    1.665755
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.005022   .1937266                      1.625325    2.384719
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.725116   .2639637                      2.253901    3.294846
          rho |   .6929983   .0412157                      .6069423    .7674328
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_i
> ran_rev i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1096.6684  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.9681  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7917  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1023.5799
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -983.16473
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -954.40463
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -933.00299
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -917.02309
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -905.97131
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -899.94022
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -902.34451

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -899.80311  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -846.65121  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.17792  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.91315  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -835.8999  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -835.8999  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.89557  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.89557  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     412.14
Log pseudolikelihood  = -835.89557              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |    .511696   .4949748     1.03   0.301    -.4584368    1.481829
 Theological  |   1.274243   .5789056     2.20   0.028     .1396091    2.408877
        Both  |    .858361   .5317748     1.61   0.106    -.1838984     1.90062
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .6694326   .3683447     1.82   0.069    -.0525097    1.391375
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.559659   .7999802     3.20   0.001     .9917267    4.127592
  incomp_terr |  -.9287571   .4388145    -2.12   0.034    -1.788818   -.0686965
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0594213   .0317945    -1.87   0.062    -.1217374    .0028948
 vdem_rescale |   -.030801   .0549789    -0.56   0.575    -.1385576    .0769556
vdem_rescal~q |   .0067126   .0081319     0.83   0.409    -.0092257    .0226509
 active_dyads |   .1097072    .129779     0.85   0.398    -.1446549    .3640694
post_iran_rev |  -2.950633   1.476611    -2.00   0.046    -5.844738    -.056528
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.195083   1.294631    -0.92   0.356    -3.732513    1.342346
        1952  |  -1.467742   1.430642    -1.03   0.305    -4.271749    1.336266
        1953  |   .1594947   1.405171     0.11   0.910     -2.59459     2.91358
        1954  |  -2.970555    1.55372    -1.91   0.056     -6.01579    .0746807
        1955  |  -1.271168   2.095255    -0.61   0.544    -5.377792    2.835455
        1956  |  -2.234838   2.263872    -0.99   0.324    -6.671946    2.202269
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.434486   1.843324    -0.78   0.436    -5.047335    2.178362
        1959  |  -2.232749   1.961036    -1.14   0.255    -6.076309     1.61081
        1960  |  -3.068656   1.637213    -1.87   0.061    -6.277536    .1402227
        1961  |  -.8966293   1.541235    -0.58   0.561    -3.917395    2.124137
        1962  |  -.3392922   1.556603    -0.22   0.827    -3.390177    2.711593
        1963  |  -.4098577   1.551218    -0.26   0.792    -3.450189    2.630474
        1964  |  -1.175105   1.392673    -0.84   0.399    -3.904694    1.554484
        1965  |  -1.372671   1.420847    -0.97   0.334    -4.157479    1.412137
        1966  |  -1.198975   1.359092    -0.88   0.378    -3.862747    1.464797
        1967  |  -1.273393   1.356769    -0.94   0.348    -3.932612    1.385826
        1968  |  -1.534663   1.259245    -1.22   0.223    -4.002737     .933412
        1969  |   -1.23537   1.307591    -0.94   0.345    -3.798202    1.327462
        1970  |  -1.368923   1.303202    -1.05   0.294    -3.923152    1.185307
        1971  |  -.4036143   1.146562    -0.35   0.725    -2.650834    1.843605
        1972  |  -2.134814   1.344724    -1.59   0.112    -4.770425    .5007959
        1973  |  -2.872688   1.521877    -1.89   0.059    -5.855512    .1101359
        1974  |  -1.168221   1.387843    -0.84   0.400    -3.888343    1.551902
        1975  |  -.9886378   1.322432    -0.75   0.455    -3.580557    1.603282
        1976  |  -.7464265   1.301513    -0.57   0.566    -3.297345    1.804492
        1977  |  -.9970903   1.293024    -0.77   0.441    -3.531371     1.53719
        1978  |    .269804   1.335243     0.20   0.840    -2.347224    2.886832
        1979  |  -1.415416   1.310489    -1.08   0.280    -3.983926    1.153095
        1980  |   1.878168   .9947149     1.89   0.059    -.0714373    3.827773
        1981  |   1.808325   .9902375     1.83   0.068    -.1325051    3.749155
        1982  |   2.320212    .948753     2.45   0.014     .4606903    4.179734
        1983  |   2.132855    .962302     2.22   0.027     .2467777    4.018932
        1984  |   2.357109   .9466589     2.49   0.013     .5016921    4.212527
        1985  |    2.09121    .945312     2.21   0.027     .2384325    3.943988
        1986  |   1.617871   .9524893     1.70   0.089    -.2489736    3.484716
        1987  |   1.874577   .9114828     2.06   0.040     .0881036     3.66105
        1988  |   2.622873   .9252042     2.83   0.005     .8095059     4.43624
        1989  |   1.033462   .9519225     1.09   0.278    -.8322717    2.899196
        1990  |   1.331385   .9532932     1.40   0.163     -.537035    3.199806
        1991  |   1.093985   .9174017     1.19   0.233    -.7040896    2.892059
        1992  |    1.83517   .9153908     2.00   0.045     .0410375    3.629303
        1993  |   1.099579   .9756475     1.13   0.260    -.8126553    3.011813
        1994  |   1.337746   1.051541     1.27   0.203    -.7232375    3.398728
        1995  |   1.202573   1.012654     1.19   0.235    -.7821919    3.187337
        1996  |   1.010936   1.005209     1.01   0.315    -.9592373    2.981109
        1997  |   1.004281   .9255814     1.09   0.278    -.8098258    2.818387
        1998  |   1.894203   .9078941     2.09   0.037     .1147637    3.673643
        1999  |   1.817797   .9055257     2.01   0.045     .0429991    3.592595
        2000  |   1.133148   .9495591     1.19   0.233     -.727954    2.994249
        2001  |   .6952086   .9318149     0.75   0.456    -1.131115    2.521532
        2002  |   1.401256   1.020282     1.37   0.170    -.5984607    3.400972
        2003  |   .3326028   1.404758     0.24   0.813    -2.420673    3.085878
        2004  |   1.472212   1.190134     1.24   0.216    -.8604076    3.804831
        2005  |   .6733959   1.124811     0.60   0.549    -1.531193    2.877985
        2006  |  -.5943349   .7967946    -0.75   0.456    -2.156024    .9673538
        2007  |  -.2735124   .8107355    -0.34   0.736    -1.862525      1.3155
        2008  |  -.1512447   .8454421    -0.18   0.858    -1.808281    1.505791
        2009  |   .1290486   .9688445     0.13   0.894    -1.769852    2.027949
        2010  |  -.4287544   .8803488    -0.49   0.626    -2.154206    1.296698
        2011  |   .1310513   1.043122     0.13   0.900    -1.913431    2.175533
        2012  |  -.2669406   1.213356    -0.22   0.826    -2.645075    2.111194
        2013  |   .1943825   .7686865     0.25   0.800    -1.312215     1.70098
        2014  |   1.152153   .7999383     1.44   0.150    -.4156974    2.720003
        2015  |   .4453806   .7848435     0.57   0.570    -1.092884    1.983646
        2016  |  -.4691206    .908563    -0.52   0.606    -2.249871     1.31163
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.626415   1.409586    -1.15   0.249    -4.389152    1.136322
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.974718   .1914618                      1.599459    2.349976
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.684136   .2569548                       2.22494    3.238104
          rho |   .6865136    .041205                       .600755    .7611743
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_iran_rev##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff
> ) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq 
> active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 0.post_iran_rev#2.incomp_ideologies identifies no observations in the samp
> le
note: 1.post_iran_rev#2.incomp_ideologies omitted because of collinearity
note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1091.3431  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1078.0837  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1077.8931  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1077.8928  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1077.8928  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1077.8928
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1018.8024
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -979.03099
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -950.71386
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -929.68097
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -914.06875
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -903.49684
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -897.42183
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -899.85693

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -897.28527  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -842.72642  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.65847  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.33522  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.31802  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.31802  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.31162  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.31162  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(79)     =     440.01
Log pseudolikelihood  = -831.31162              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_iran~v |  -3.351103   1.759018    -1.91   0.057    -6.798715    .0965094
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   -.071248   .8158582    -0.09   0.930    -1.670301    1.527805
 Theological  |   1.460707   .6046291     2.42   0.016     .2756557    2.645758
        Both  |   .6857187    1.48308     0.46   0.644    -2.221065    3.592502
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   1.551414   .7052727     2.20   0.028     .1691049    2.933723
              |
post_iran_rev#|
incomp_ideo~s |
           0 #|
 Theological  |          0  (empty)
   1#Secular  |    .834312   .8820482     0.95   0.344    -.8944707    2.563095
           1 #|
 Theological  |          0  (omitted)
      1#Both  |   .4347238   1.402902     0.31   0.757    -2.314914    3.184362
              |
post_iran_rev#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   -1.26248   .8309125    -1.52   0.129    -2.891039    .3660785
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.812568   .8522471     3.30   0.001     1.142194    4.482941
  incomp_terr |  -.9716836   .4525507    -2.15   0.032    -1.858667   -.0847005
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0552593    .036116    -1.53   0.126    -.1260453    .0155266
 vdem_rescale |  -.0339522   .0566226    -0.60   0.549    -.1449305    .0770261
vdem_rescal~q |   .0053222   .0081449     0.65   0.513    -.0106416     .021286
 active_dyads |   .0747211     .13632     0.55   0.584    -.1924613    .3419035
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.070206   1.289419    -0.83   0.407     -3.59742    1.457008
        1952  |  -1.334968   1.426016    -0.94   0.349    -4.129908    1.459973
        1953  |   .2113579   1.375867     0.15   0.878    -2.485293    2.908009
        1954  |  -2.861416   1.578948    -1.81   0.070    -5.956098    .2332657
        1955  |  -1.215441    2.07614    -0.59   0.558    -5.284601    2.853718
        1956  |  -2.196752   2.218166    -0.99   0.322    -6.544278    2.150774
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.478167   1.841472    -0.80   0.422    -5.087385    2.131052
        1959  |  -2.245948   1.953441    -1.15   0.250    -6.074622    1.582727
        1960  |  -3.043459   1.679626    -1.81   0.070    -6.335466    .2485485
        1961  |  -.9849583   1.574263    -0.63   0.532    -4.070458    2.100541
        1962  |    -.46962   1.608129    -0.29   0.770    -3.621496    2.682256
        1963  |  -.8585254   1.736787    -0.49   0.621    -4.262565    2.545514
        1964  |   -1.47998   1.512248    -0.98   0.328    -4.443933    1.483972
        1965  |  -1.664861   1.592959    -1.05   0.296    -4.787004    1.457281
        1966  |  -1.504534   1.513295    -0.99   0.320    -4.470538    1.461469
        1967  |  -1.567064   1.468168    -1.07   0.286    -4.444621    1.310493
        1968  |  -1.835605   1.307493    -1.40   0.160    -4.398244     .727034
        1969  |  -1.491815   1.418801    -1.05   0.293    -4.272615    1.288984
        1970  |  -1.622357   1.357611    -1.20   0.232    -4.283226    1.038511
        1971  |  -.6525943   1.239003    -0.53   0.598    -3.080995    1.775807
        1972  |  -2.447475    1.37568    -1.78   0.075    -5.143759    .2488091
        1973  |  -3.199172    1.59322    -2.01   0.045    -6.321826   -.0765174
        1974  |   -1.38197   1.474776    -0.94   0.349    -4.272478    1.508538
        1975  |  -1.266875   1.407171    -0.90   0.368    -4.024879    1.491129
        1976  |  -1.088257   1.363963    -0.80   0.425    -3.761575    1.585061
        1977  |  -1.360918    1.35793    -1.00   0.316    -4.022412    1.300576
        1978  |  -.0234967   1.378275    -0.02   0.986    -2.724865    2.677872
        1979  |  -1.811527   1.364433    -1.33   0.184    -4.485766    .8627132
        1980  |   1.937778   1.017838     1.90   0.057    -.0571476    3.932703
        1981  |   1.862221   1.009806     1.84   0.065    -.1169627    3.841405
        1982  |   2.379426   .9745567     2.44   0.015     .4693298    4.289522
        1983  |   2.158605   .9815676     2.20   0.028     .2347673    4.082442
        1984  |   2.412127   .9745075     2.48   0.013     .5021278    4.322127
        1985  |   2.120873    .967694     2.19   0.028     .2242273    4.017518
        1986  |    1.63873   .9714001     1.69   0.092     -.265179     3.54264
        1987  |   1.896808   .9369652     2.02   0.043     .0603903    3.733226
        1988  |   2.639322     .93983     2.81   0.005      .797289    4.481355
        1989  |   1.038333   .9784849     1.06   0.289    -.8794625    2.956128
        1990  |   1.350911   .9835737     1.37   0.170    -.5768578     3.27868
        1991  |   1.120994   .9465557     1.18   0.236     -.734221    2.976209
        1992  |   1.864866   .9342861     2.00   0.046     .0336984    3.696033
        1993  |   1.117441   .9921589     1.13   0.260    -.8271545    3.062037
        1994  |   1.375033   1.067722     1.29   0.198    -.7176639     3.46773
        1995  |   1.217909   1.030796     1.18   0.237    -.8024137    3.238231
        1996  |   1.026807   1.025454     1.00   0.317    -.9830454    3.036659
        1997  |   1.008289   .9467798     1.06   0.287    -.8473653    2.863943
        1998  |   1.919031   .9314509     2.06   0.039     .0934211    3.744641
        1999  |   1.815422   .9245496     1.96   0.050     .0033379    3.627506
        2000  |   1.143155   .9731322     1.17   0.240    -.7641487    3.050459
        2001  |   .6856721   .9562172     0.72   0.473    -1.188479    2.559823
        2002  |   1.417332   1.039155     1.36   0.173    -.6193742    3.454038
        2003  |   .3601864   1.416516     0.25   0.799    -2.416135    3.136507
        2004  |   1.475177   1.206002     1.22   0.221    -.8885433    3.838897
        2005  |   .6454392   1.148094     0.56   0.574    -1.604784    2.895662
        2006  |  -.6269561   .8115695    -0.77   0.440    -2.217603    .9636909
        2007  |  -.2985207   .8159689    -0.37   0.714     -1.89779    1.300749
        2008  |  -.1874093   .8652886    -0.22   0.829    -1.883344    1.508525
        2009  |   .1142308   .9885687     0.12   0.908    -1.823328     2.05179
        2010  |  -.4363167    .905275    -0.48   0.630    -2.210623     1.33799
        2011  |   .1516319   1.068946     0.14   0.887    -1.943464    2.246728
        2012  |  -.3002784   1.238892    -0.24   0.808    -2.728462    2.127905
        2013  |    .180027   .7841136     0.23   0.818    -1.356808    1.716861
        2014  |   1.129965   .8159123     1.38   0.166     -.469194    2.729123
        2015  |   .4074161   .8097636     0.50   0.615    -1.179691    1.994524
        2016  |  -.4962886   .9264092    -0.54   0.592    -2.312017     1.31944
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.307957   1.668337    -0.78   0.433    -4.577837    1.961924
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.007184   .1960216                      1.622989     2.39138
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.728064   .2673797                       2.25127    3.305837
          rho |   .6934582   .0416691                       .606385    .7686194
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_2
> 001 i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1096.6684  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.9681  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7917  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1083.7915
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1023.5799
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -983.16473
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -954.40463
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -933.00299
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -917.02309
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -905.97131
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -899.94022
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -902.34451

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -899.80311  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -846.65121  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.17792  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.91315  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -835.8999  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -835.8999  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.89557  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.89557  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     412.14
Log pseudolikelihood  = -835.89557              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |    .511696   .4949748     1.03   0.301    -.4584368    1.481829
 Theological  |   1.274243   .5789056     2.20   0.028     .1396091    2.408877
        Both  |    .858361   .5317748     1.61   0.106    -.1838984     1.90062
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .6694326   .3683447     1.82   0.069    -.0525097    1.391375
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.559659   .7999802     3.20   0.001     .9917267    4.127592
  incomp_terr |  -.9287571   .4388145    -2.12   0.034    -1.788818   -.0686965
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0594213   .0317945    -1.87   0.062    -.1217374    .0028948
 vdem_rescale |   -.030801   .0549789    -0.56   0.575    -.1385576    .0769556
vdem_rescal~q |   .0067126   .0081319     0.83   0.409    -.0092257    .0226509
 active_dyads |   .1097072    .129779     0.85   0.398    -.1446549    .3640694
    post_2001 |  -2.950633   1.476611    -2.00   0.046    -5.844738    -.056528
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.195083   1.294631    -0.92   0.356    -3.732513    1.342346
        1952  |  -1.467742   1.430642    -1.03   0.305    -4.271749    1.336266
        1953  |   .1594947   1.405171     0.11   0.910     -2.59459     2.91358
        1954  |  -2.970555    1.55372    -1.91   0.056     -6.01579    .0746807
        1955  |  -1.271168   2.095255    -0.61   0.544    -5.377792    2.835455
        1956  |  -2.234838   2.263872    -0.99   0.324    -6.671946    2.202269
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.434486   1.843324    -0.78   0.436    -5.047335    2.178362
        1959  |  -2.232749   1.961036    -1.14   0.255    -6.076309     1.61081
        1960  |  -3.068656   1.637213    -1.87   0.061    -6.277536    .1402227
        1961  |  -.8966293   1.541235    -0.58   0.561    -3.917395    2.124137
        1962  |  -.3392922   1.556603    -0.22   0.827    -3.390177    2.711593
        1963  |  -.4098577   1.551218    -0.26   0.792    -3.450189    2.630474
        1964  |  -1.175105   1.392673    -0.84   0.399    -3.904694    1.554484
        1965  |  -1.372671   1.420847    -0.97   0.334    -4.157479    1.412137
        1966  |  -1.198975   1.359092    -0.88   0.378    -3.862747    1.464797
        1967  |  -1.273393   1.356769    -0.94   0.348    -3.932612    1.385826
        1968  |  -1.534663   1.259245    -1.22   0.223    -4.002737     .933412
        1969  |   -1.23537   1.307591    -0.94   0.345    -3.798202    1.327462
        1970  |  -1.368923   1.303202    -1.05   0.294    -3.923152    1.185307
        1971  |  -.4036143   1.146562    -0.35   0.725    -2.650834    1.843605
        1972  |  -2.134814   1.344724    -1.59   0.112    -4.770425    .5007959
        1973  |  -2.872688   1.521877    -1.89   0.059    -5.855512    .1101359
        1974  |  -1.168221   1.387843    -0.84   0.400    -3.888343    1.551902
        1975  |  -.9886378   1.322432    -0.75   0.455    -3.580557    1.603282
        1976  |  -.7464265   1.301513    -0.57   0.566    -3.297345    1.804492
        1977  |  -.9970903   1.293024    -0.77   0.441    -3.531371     1.53719
        1978  |    .269804   1.335243     0.20   0.840    -2.347224    2.886832
        1979  |  -1.415416   1.310489    -1.08   0.280    -3.983926    1.153095
        1980  |  -1.072465   1.299943    -0.83   0.409    -3.620307    1.475377
        1981  |  -1.142308   1.352017    -0.84   0.398    -3.792212    1.507596
        1982  |  -.6304211   1.282343    -0.49   0.623    -3.143767    1.882925
        1983  |  -.8177782   1.310063    -0.62   0.532    -3.385455    1.749899
        1984  |  -.5935237   1.264513    -0.47   0.639    -3.071924    1.884877
        1985  |   -.859423   1.291256    -0.67   0.506    -3.390239    1.671393
        1986  |  -1.332762   1.314643    -1.01   0.311    -3.909415    1.243891
        1987  |  -1.076056   1.314424    -0.82   0.413    -3.652279    1.500167
        1988  |  -.3277604   1.276194    -0.26   0.797    -2.829054    2.173533
        1989  |  -1.917171   1.315038    -1.46   0.145    -4.494598    .6602559
        1990  |  -1.619248   1.363935    -1.19   0.235    -4.292511    1.054015
        1991  |  -1.856648   1.355159    -1.37   0.171    -4.512712    .7994149
        1992  |  -1.115463   1.392995    -0.80   0.423    -3.845683    1.614757
        1993  |  -1.851054   1.416401    -1.31   0.191    -4.627149    .9250406
        1994  |  -1.612888   1.472557    -1.10   0.273    -4.499047    1.273272
        1995  |  -1.748061   1.446768    -1.21   0.227    -4.583674    1.087553
        1996  |  -1.939697   1.425129    -1.36   0.173    -4.732899    .8535048
        1997  |  -1.946353   1.396145    -1.39   0.163    -4.682747    .7900418
        1998  |   -1.05643   1.384194    -0.76   0.445    -3.769401    1.656541
        1999  |  -1.132836    1.40922    -0.80   0.421    -3.894858    1.629185
        2000  |  -1.817485   1.399505    -1.30   0.194    -4.560464    .9254935
        2001  |  -2.255424   1.402233    -1.61   0.108    -5.003751    .4929018
        2002  |   1.401256   1.020282     1.37   0.170    -.5984607    3.400972
        2003  |   .3326028   1.404758     0.24   0.813    -2.420673    3.085878
        2004  |   1.472212   1.190134     1.24   0.216    -.8604076    3.804831
        2005  |   .6733959   1.124811     0.60   0.549    -1.531193    2.877985
        2006  |  -.5943349   .7967946    -0.75   0.456    -2.156024    .9673538
        2007  |  -.2735124   .8107355    -0.34   0.736    -1.862525      1.3155
        2008  |  -.1512447   .8454421    -0.18   0.858    -1.808281    1.505791
        2009  |   .1290486   .9688445     0.13   0.894    -1.769852    2.027949
        2010  |  -.4287544   .8803488    -0.49   0.626    -2.154206    1.296698
        2011  |   .1310513   1.043122     0.13   0.900    -1.913431    2.175533
        2012  |  -.2669406   1.213356    -0.22   0.826    -2.645075    2.111194
        2013  |   .1943825   .7686865     0.25   0.800    -1.312215     1.70098
        2014  |   1.152153   .7999383     1.44   0.150    -.4156974    2.720003
        2015  |   .4453806   .7848435     0.57   0.570    -1.092884    1.983646
        2016  |  -.4691206    .908563    -0.52   0.606    -2.249871     1.31163
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.626415   1.409586    -1.15   0.249    -4.389152    1.136322
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.974718   .1914618                      1.599459    2.349976
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.684136   .2569548                       2.22494    3.238104
          rho |   .6865136    .041205                       .600755    .7611743
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_2001##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff) re
> bel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq acti
> ve_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1090.7061  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1075.6099  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1075.2346  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1075.2337  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1075.2337  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1075.2337
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1017.1765
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -978.19041
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -950.29385
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -929.41428
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -913.80725
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -902.88041
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -896.79723
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -898.69742

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -896.68174  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -842.9196  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -832.55672  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -832.25396  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -832.24421  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -832.24421  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -832.24366  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -832.24366  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(80)     =     423.38
Log pseudolikelihood  = -832.24366              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  1.post_2001 |   -3.38943   1.839464    -1.84   0.065    -6.994713    .2158528
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .4478081   .5291398     0.85   0.397    -.5892867    1.484903
 Theological  |   .8545481   .7251159     1.18   0.239    -.5666529    2.275749
        Both  |   1.245787   .5724337     2.18   0.030     .1238376    2.367737
              |
incomp_rel_~f |    .803661   .4420433     1.82   0.069     -.062728     1.67005
              |
    post_2001#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |   .8362895   1.060614     0.79   0.430    -1.242475    2.915054
           1 #|
 Theological  |   1.206832   1.119285     1.08   0.281     -.986926    3.400591
      1#Both  |  -.6867606   1.006274    -0.68   0.495    -2.659021    1.285499
              |
    post_2001#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |  -.3609334    .826975    -0.44   0.663    -1.981775    1.259908
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.596871   .8125778     3.20   0.001     1.004247    4.189494
  incomp_terr |  -.9527049   .4477898    -2.13   0.033    -1.830357   -.0750531
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0562591   .0321489    -1.75   0.080    -.1192698    .0067516
 vdem_rescale |  -.0374287   .0575187    -0.65   0.515    -.1501633    .0753059
vdem_rescal~q |   .0057688   .0081916     0.70   0.481    -.0102865     .021824
 active_dyads |   .1076318   .1249367     0.86   0.389    -.1372395    .3525032
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.183402   1.296381    -0.91   0.361    -3.724262    1.357458
        1952  |  -1.446941   1.433635    -1.01   0.313    -4.256814    1.362931
        1953  |   .1580981   1.395813     0.11   0.910    -2.577645    2.893841
        1954  |  -2.952079   1.556669    -1.90   0.058    -6.003093    .0989353
        1955  |  -1.249705   2.089376    -0.60   0.550    -5.344807    2.845398
        1956  |  -2.226158   2.260444    -0.98   0.325    -6.656546    2.204231
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.440891   1.845089    -0.78   0.435    -5.057199    2.175418
        1959  |  -2.236626   1.964972    -1.14   0.255    -6.087901    1.614648
        1960  |  -3.084703   1.644606    -1.88   0.061    -6.308071    .1386657
        1961  |   -.927216   1.547256    -0.60   0.549    -3.959781    2.105349
        1962  |  -.3708011   1.564433    -0.24   0.813    -3.437033    2.695431
        1963  |  -.4739515   1.568999    -0.30   0.763    -3.549133     2.60123
        1964  |   -1.22258   1.407541    -0.87   0.385    -3.981309    1.536149
        1965  |  -1.419415   1.436439    -0.99   0.323    -4.234784    1.395954
        1966  |  -1.230695   1.374283    -0.90   0.371    -3.924241    1.462851
        1967  |  -1.307693   1.373685    -0.95   0.341    -4.000067    1.384681
        1968  |  -1.573391    1.26794    -1.24   0.215    -4.058508    .9117254
        1969  |  -1.282731   1.316681    -0.97   0.330    -3.863379    1.297917
        1970  |  -1.416991    1.31212    -1.08   0.280      -3.9887    1.154718
        1971  |  -.4463313   1.156957    -0.39   0.700    -2.713926    1.821264
        1972  |  -2.184169   1.353223    -1.61   0.107    -4.836437    .4680994
        1973  |  -2.907396   1.517659    -1.92   0.055    -5.881954    .0671606
        1974  |  -1.208214   1.395787    -0.87   0.387    -3.943905    1.527478
        1975  |  -1.030579   1.329586    -0.78   0.438    -3.636519    1.575362
        1976  |  -.7981078   1.309967    -0.61   0.542    -3.365596    1.769381
        1977  |  -1.042898   1.300816    -0.80   0.423     -3.59245    1.506654
        1978  |   .2264963   1.345026     0.17   0.866    -2.409707    2.862699
        1979  |  -1.483099   1.318792    -1.12   0.261    -4.067884    1.101687
        1980  |  -1.152838   1.311455    -0.88   0.379    -3.723243    1.417567
        1981  |  -1.224907   1.369222    -0.89   0.371    -3.908532    1.458718
        1982  |  -.7071234   1.294908    -0.55   0.585    -3.245096    1.830849
        1983  |  -.8995721   1.325914    -0.68   0.497    -3.498315    1.699171
        1984  |   -.668112   1.276044    -0.52   0.601    -3.169112    1.832888
        1985  |  -.9269723   1.304093    -0.71   0.477    -3.482948    1.629003
        1986  |   -1.40069   1.330148    -1.05   0.292    -4.007732    1.206352
        1987  |  -1.145945   1.328633    -0.86   0.388    -3.750018    1.458128
        1988  |  -.3725629   1.293673    -0.29   0.773    -2.908115    2.162989
        1989  |  -1.995864   1.334573    -1.50   0.135    -4.611578    .6198509
        1990  |  -1.696598   1.387972    -1.22   0.222    -4.416973    1.023776
        1991  |   -1.92661   1.371145    -1.41   0.160    -4.614005    .7607855
        1992  |  -1.093343   1.406548    -0.78   0.437    -3.850126    1.663441
        1993  |  -1.868143   1.453783    -1.29   0.199    -4.717506    .9812203
        1994  |  -1.649575   1.516656    -1.09   0.277    -4.622167    1.323017
        1995  |  -1.755863   1.463055    -1.20   0.230    -4.623399    1.111672
        1996  |  -1.944696   1.435012    -1.36   0.175    -4.757268    .8678756
        1997  |  -1.974393   1.421853    -1.39   0.165    -4.761173    .8123871
        1998  |  -1.078499   1.410427    -0.76   0.444    -3.842885    1.685888
        1999  |  -1.141203   1.444003    -0.79   0.429    -3.971398    1.688991
        2000  |  -1.850171   1.411661    -1.31   0.190    -4.616975    .9166325
        2001  |  -2.414834   1.427913    -1.69   0.091    -5.213492    .3838244
        2002  |   1.434315   1.013743     1.41   0.157    -.5525839    3.421215
        2003  |   .5246828   1.337268     0.39   0.695    -2.096314     3.14568
        2004  |   1.557895   1.126602     1.38   0.167     -.650204    3.765994
        2005  |   .6719318   1.077875     0.62   0.533    -1.440664    2.784527
        2006  |  -.5910469   .7532359    -0.78   0.433    -2.067362    .8852683
        2007  |  -.3653271   .8409112    -0.43   0.664    -2.013483    1.282829
        2008  |   -.298756   .7918091    -0.38   0.706    -1.850673    1.253161
        2009  |  -.0022657   .9369015    -0.00   0.998    -1.838559    1.834028
        2010  |  -.6170501     .82397    -0.75   0.454    -2.232002    .9979015
        2011  |   .1362284   1.018911     0.13   0.894      -1.8608    2.133257
        2012  |   -.259866    1.19694    -0.22   0.828    -2.605825    2.086093
        2013  |   .2081116   .7513411     0.28   0.782     -1.26449    1.680713
        2014  |   1.127138   .7808505     1.44   0.149    -.4033011    2.657577
        2015  |   .4057833   .7700797     0.53   0.598    -1.103545    1.915112
        2016  |  -.4411878   .9018073    -0.49   0.625    -2.208698    1.326322
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.671167   1.441469    -1.16   0.246    -4.496393     1.15406
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |    1.99646     .19336                      1.617481    2.375438
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.713474   .2623387                      2.245079    3.279592
          rho |   .6911737   .0412732                      .6050695    .7657722
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *************
. * Table A6-C. Conflict Intensity – Monadic – General, Different Temporal Thres
> holds (post-Iranian Revolution, post-Cold War, post-9/11) *
. ******************************************************************************
> *************
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i.
> year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1106.8493  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1095.1302  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9717  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1033.1514
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -991.18711
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -961.14938
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -938.89902
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -922.56825
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -911.21733
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -903.23267
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -904.76468

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -903.93493  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -848.35716  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -838.12856  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.79008  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77964  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77964  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77731  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77731  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(74)     =     344.84
Log pseudolikelihood  = -837.77731              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   1.075147   .6854081     1.57   0.117    -.2682281    2.418522
claim_ideol~y |   .5984271   .3699078     1.62   0.106    -.1265788    1.323433
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.710057   .8555228     3.17   0.002     1.033263    4.386851
  incomp_terr |  -.5463508    .428585    -1.27   0.202    -1.386362    .2936603
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0653592   .0319705    -2.04   0.041    -.1280202   -.0026983
 vdem_rescale |  -.0228402    .052551    -0.43   0.664    -.1258383     .080158
vdem_rescal~q |   .0075606   .0078646     0.96   0.336    -.0078537     .022975
 active_dyads |   .0983643   .1314915     0.75   0.454    -.1593543    .3560828
post_cold_war |   -3.18105   1.416149    -2.25   0.025    -5.956651   -.4054489
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.099349   1.256148    -0.88   0.381    -3.561354    1.362656
        1952  |  -1.378542    1.41346    -0.98   0.329    -4.148873    1.391789
        1953  |   .0963059   1.342213     0.07   0.943    -2.534384    2.726995
        1954  |  -3.244417   1.564674    -2.07   0.038    -6.311123   -.1777121
        1955  |  -1.473015   2.098778    -0.70   0.483    -5.586544    2.640514
        1956  |  -2.356878   2.276769    -1.04   0.301    -6.819264    2.105508
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.62258   1.828086    -0.89   0.375    -5.205563    1.960402
        1959  |  -2.375708    1.97972    -1.20   0.230    -6.255889    1.504473
        1960  |  -3.274102   1.609616    -2.03   0.042    -6.428892    -.119312
        1961  |  -1.174386   1.483299    -0.79   0.429    -4.081599    1.732827
        1962  |  -.6553724   1.479062    -0.44   0.658    -3.554281    2.243536
        1963  |  -.8012255    1.47599    -0.54   0.587    -3.694113    2.091662
        1964  |  -1.606399   1.317255    -1.22   0.223     -4.18817    .9753731
        1965  |  -1.820499   1.353846    -1.34   0.179    -4.473989    .8329912
        1966  |  -1.625411   1.289715    -1.26   0.208    -4.153206    .9023846
        1967  |  -1.680943   1.270924    -1.32   0.186    -4.171909    .8100222
        1968  |  -1.934691   1.208472    -1.60   0.109    -4.303252    .4338703
        1969  |  -1.645915   1.266798    -1.30   0.194    -4.128793    .8369625
        1970  |  -1.782628   1.242289    -1.43   0.151     -4.21747    .6522142
        1971  |  -.8033979   1.078931    -0.74   0.456    -2.918064    1.311268
        1972  |  -2.557507   1.291632    -1.98   0.048    -5.089059   -.0259547
        1973  |  -3.209358   1.412464    -2.27   0.023    -5.977737   -.4409795
        1974  |  -1.545663   1.343963    -1.15   0.250    -4.179782    1.088456
        1975  |  -1.371378   1.295995    -1.06   0.290    -3.911482    1.168725
        1976  |  -1.142106   1.277949    -0.89   0.371    -3.646841    1.362629
        1977  |  -1.401244   1.264707    -1.11   0.268    -3.880023    1.077536
        1978  |  -.1330515   1.292692    -0.10   0.918    -2.666682    2.400579
        1979  |  -1.832856   1.271469    -1.44   0.149    -4.324889    .6591779
        1980  |   -1.47431   1.241501    -1.19   0.235    -3.907608    .9589881
        1981  |  -1.531618   1.281838    -1.19   0.232    -4.043975    .9807389
        1982  |  -1.017233   1.221378    -0.83   0.405     -3.41109    1.376623
        1983  |   -1.20352   1.254526    -0.96   0.337    -3.662346    1.255305
        1984  |  -.9671201   1.216155    -0.80   0.426     -3.35074      1.4165
        1985  |  -1.259399   1.236763    -1.02   0.309     -3.68341    1.164613
        1986  |  -1.775714   1.261498    -1.41   0.159    -4.248204    .6967763
        1987  |  -1.461064   1.246526    -1.17   0.241     -3.90421    .9820826
        1988  |  -.7306964   1.240037    -0.59   0.556    -3.161125    1.699732
        1989  |  -2.349823   1.264723    -1.86   0.063    -4.828635    .1289883
        1990  |  -2.059472   1.285358    -1.60   0.109    -4.578728     .459784
        1991  |   .9075321   .9219817     0.98   0.325    -.8995189    2.714583
        1992  |   1.676905   .9292465     1.80   0.071    -.1443852    3.498194
        1993  |   .9770011   .9905563     0.99   0.324    -.9644535    2.918456
        1994  |   1.213852   1.070913     1.13   0.257    -.8850988    3.312802
        1995  |   1.103291   1.013827     1.09   0.276    -.8837739    3.090356
        1996  |   .9461152   1.002677     0.94   0.345    -1.019095    2.911325
        1997  |   .9514013   .9379214     1.01   0.310    -.8868909    2.789694
        1998  |   1.833948    .923036     1.99   0.047      .024831    3.643066
        1999  |   1.796562   .9186577     1.96   0.051    -.0039745    3.597098
        2000  |   1.118355   .9625794     1.16   0.245    -.7682655    3.004976
        2001  |   .6440067   .9521945     0.68   0.499     -1.22226    2.510274
        2002  |   1.330977   1.034492     1.29   0.198    -.6965898    3.358544
        2003  |    .253156   1.420965     0.18   0.859    -2.531884    3.038196
        2004  |   1.413513   1.189635     1.19   0.235    -.9181293    3.745156
        2005  |    .624883   1.109085     0.56   0.573    -1.548883    2.798649
        2006  |  -.6003656   .8376871    -0.72   0.474    -2.242202    1.041471
        2007  |  -.2350924   .8117276    -0.29   0.772    -1.826049    1.355865
        2008  |   -.117688   .8812171    -0.13   0.894    -1.844842    1.609466
        2009  |    .182429   .9777243     0.19   0.852    -1.733875    2.098733
        2010  |  -.3760306   .9052974    -0.42   0.678    -2.150381     1.39832
        2011  |   .1729422     1.0545     0.16   0.870    -1.893839    2.239723
        2012  |  -.2879974   1.221777    -0.24   0.814    -2.682636    2.106641
        2013  |   .1830536   .7681055     0.24   0.812    -1.322406    1.688513
        2014  |   1.108808   .8009564     1.38   0.166    -.4610376    2.678654
        2015  |    .358784    .815883     0.44   0.660    -1.240317    1.957885
        2016  |  -.4945262   .9189682    -0.54   0.590    -2.295671    1.306618
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.870122   1.375982    -1.36   0.174    -4.566997    .8267537
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.002784   .1918866                      1.626693    2.378874
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.722068   .2611642                      2.255443    3.285232
          rho |   .6925219   .0408594                      .6072686     .766388
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(c.rel_aff01 c.claim_ideology) rebel_
> ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_d
> yads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1103.2207  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1090.1935  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.9401  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.9392  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.9392  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1089.9392
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1030.0156
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -989.08793
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -959.67481
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood =  -937.7536
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -921.49064
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -909.84781
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -902.16343
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -903.73431

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -903.20584  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -847.37342  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.06977  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.74355  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.73295  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.73295  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.73077  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.73077  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     392.33
Log pseudolikelihood  = -836.73077              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -2.986348   1.690413    -1.77   0.077    -6.299496    .3267996
    rel_aff01 |   1.015724   .6756277     1.50   0.133    -.3084823     2.33993
claim_ideol~y |   .9309982   .4877143     1.91   0.056    -.0249042    1.886901
              |
post_cold_war#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |   .1315919   .9182501     0.14   0.886    -1.668145    1.931329
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.7072728   .6627804    -1.07   0.286    -2.006298    .5917529
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.696815   .8490066     3.18   0.001     1.032793    4.360838
  incomp_terr |  -.5326405   .4264558    -1.25   0.212    -1.368478    .3031975
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0646777   .0321098    -2.01   0.044    -.1276117   -.0017436
 vdem_rescale |  -.0224856   .0508867    -0.44   0.659    -.1222216    .0772504
vdem_rescal~q |   .0077085   .0078357     0.98   0.325    -.0076492    .0230662
 active_dyads |   .0893471   .1303742     0.69   0.493    -.1661817    .3448759
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.072303   1.247517    -0.86   0.390     -3.51739    1.372785
        1952  |  -1.344426   1.412671    -0.95   0.341    -4.113211     1.42436
        1953  |   .0798508   1.319581     0.06   0.952     -2.50648    2.666182
        1954  |  -3.342343   1.568923    -2.13   0.033    -6.417376   -.2673102
        1955  |  -1.536641   2.164901    -0.71   0.478     -5.77977    2.706487
        1956  |   -2.43836   2.304788    -1.06   0.290    -6.955662    2.078941
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.70444    1.84323    -0.92   0.355    -5.317104    1.908225
        1959  |  -2.447876   1.997526    -1.23   0.220    -6.362955    1.467204
        1960  |  -3.362797   1.598552    -2.10   0.035    -6.495901   -.2296933
        1961  |  -1.269874   1.485304    -0.85   0.393    -4.181016    1.641268
        1962  |  -.7640715   1.479959    -0.52   0.606    -3.664737    2.136594
        1963  |  -.9167113   1.467415    -0.62   0.532    -3.792791    1.959369
        1964  |  -1.721908   1.307644    -1.32   0.188    -4.284843     .841027
        1965  |  -1.947831   1.340549    -1.45   0.146    -4.575259    .6795974
        1966  |  -1.748126   1.273104    -1.37   0.170    -4.243363    .7471113
        1967  |  -1.800349     1.2529    -1.44   0.151    -4.255987    .6552896
        1968  |  -2.054423   1.192648    -1.72   0.085    -4.391971     .283124
        1969  |  -1.766522   1.246917    -1.42   0.157    -4.210435    .6773899
        1970  |  -1.905674   1.223209    -1.56   0.119     -4.30312    .4917716
        1971  |  -.9172382   1.059426    -0.87   0.387    -2.993675    1.159198
        1972  |  -2.682343   1.256689    -2.13   0.033    -5.145409    -.219278
        1973  |   -3.35403   1.384641    -2.42   0.015    -6.067877   -.6401827
        1974  |  -1.666355   1.310767    -1.27   0.204    -4.235411    .9027014
        1975  |  -1.499845   1.262955    -1.19   0.235    -3.975192    .9755015
        1976  |  -1.266693   1.249816    -1.01   0.311    -3.716288    1.182901
        1977  |  -1.527422   1.236591    -1.24   0.217    -3.951095     .896251
        1978  |  -.2599597   1.264205    -0.21   0.837    -2.737756    2.217837
        1979  |  -1.973283   1.246739    -1.58   0.113    -4.416847    .4702817
        1980  |  -1.616572   1.219842    -1.33   0.185    -4.007419    .7742742
        1981  |  -1.678348   1.260995    -1.33   0.183    -4.149852    .7931562
        1982  |   -1.16359   1.196024    -0.97   0.331    -3.507753    1.180573
        1983  |  -1.347794   1.233214    -1.09   0.274    -3.764849     1.06926
        1984  |  -1.114248   1.196717    -0.93   0.352    -3.459771    1.231275
        1985  |  -1.412822   1.207088    -1.17   0.242    -3.778671     .953026
        1986  |  -1.920661   1.245291    -1.54   0.123    -4.361387    .5200644
        1987  |  -1.606309   1.224857    -1.31   0.190    -4.006985     .794366
        1988  |   -.883304   1.214425    -0.73   0.467    -3.263534    1.496926
        1989  |  -2.517153    1.24161    -2.03   0.043    -4.950664   -.0836429
        1990  |  -2.175059   1.265934    -1.72   0.086    -4.656245    .3061267
        1991  |   .9505091    .918812     1.03   0.301    -.8503293    2.751348
        1992  |   1.679419   .9215874     1.82   0.068    -.1268591    3.485697
        1993  |   .9940441   .9867826     1.01   0.314    -.9400143    2.928103
        1994  |   1.224762   1.062815     1.15   0.249    -.8583165     3.30784
        1995  |   1.129066   1.002204     1.13   0.260    -.8352188     3.09335
        1996  |   .9896887   .9903584     1.00   0.318    -.9513781    2.930755
        1997  |    .998813   .9330352     1.07   0.284    -.8299024    2.827528
        1998  |   1.873446   .9161829     2.04   0.041     .0777606    3.669132
        1999  |   1.861006   .9049853     2.06   0.040     .0872671    3.634744
        2000  |   1.165372   .9675961     1.20   0.228    -.7310811    3.061826
        2001  |   .6915141   .9522073     0.73   0.468    -1.174778    2.557806
        2002  |   1.379045   1.027775     1.34   0.180    -.6353568    3.393448
        2003  |   .2976198   1.415721     0.21   0.833    -2.477142    3.072382
        2004  |   1.460753   1.187636     1.23   0.219    -.8669721    3.788477
        2005  |   .6705653   1.098941     0.61   0.542    -1.483319     2.82445
        2006  |  -.5585954    .831628    -0.67   0.502    -2.188556    1.071366
        2007  |   -.186809   .8114668    -0.23   0.818    -1.777255    1.403637
        2008  |   -.082443   .8756002    -0.09   0.925    -1.798588    1.633702
        2009  |    .213914   .9766202     0.22   0.827    -1.700226    2.128054
        2010  |  -.3319541   .8978072    -0.37   0.712    -2.091624    1.427716
        2011  |   .1968569   1.047547     0.19   0.851    -1.856297     2.25001
        2012  |  -.2797502   1.213565    -0.23   0.818    -2.658295    2.098794
        2013  |   .1989016   .7583105     0.26   0.793     -1.28736    1.685163
        2014  |   1.115223   .7937196     1.41   0.160    -.4404389    2.670885
        2015  |   .3762055    .803402     0.47   0.640    -1.198433    1.950844
        2016  |  -.4954151   .9212476    -0.54   0.591    -2.301027    1.310197
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.905247   1.375624    -1.39   0.166    -4.601421    .7909266
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.999076   .1948094                      1.617257    2.380896
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.717027   .2646512                      2.244827    3.288554
          rho |    .691732   .0415409                       .605016    .7667497
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_iran_rev i.
> year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1106.8493  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1095.1302  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9717  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1033.1514
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -991.18711
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -961.14938
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -938.89902
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -922.56825
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -911.21733
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -903.23267
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -904.76468

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -903.93493  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -848.35716  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -838.12856  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.79008  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77964  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77964  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77731  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77731  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(74)     =     344.84
Log pseudolikelihood  = -837.77731              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   1.075147   .6854081     1.57   0.117    -.2682281    2.418522
claim_ideol~y |   .5984271   .3699078     1.62   0.106    -.1265788    1.323433
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.710057   .8555228     3.17   0.002     1.033263    4.386851
  incomp_terr |  -.5463508    .428585    -1.27   0.202    -1.386362    .2936603
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0653592   .0319705    -2.04   0.041    -.1280202   -.0026983
 vdem_rescale |  -.0228402    .052551    -0.43   0.664    -.1258383     .080158
vdem_rescal~q |   .0075606   .0078646     0.96   0.336    -.0078537     .022975
 active_dyads |   .0983643   .1314915     0.75   0.454    -.1593543    .3560828
post_iran_rev |   -3.18105   1.416149    -2.25   0.025    -5.956651   -.4054489
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.099349   1.256148    -0.88   0.381    -3.561354    1.362656
        1952  |  -1.378542    1.41346    -0.98   0.329    -4.148873    1.391789
        1953  |   .0963059   1.342213     0.07   0.943    -2.534384    2.726995
        1954  |  -3.244417   1.564674    -2.07   0.038    -6.311123   -.1777121
        1955  |  -1.473015   2.098778    -0.70   0.483    -5.586544    2.640514
        1956  |  -2.356878   2.276769    -1.04   0.301    -6.819264    2.105508
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.62258   1.828086    -0.89   0.375    -5.205563    1.960402
        1959  |  -2.375708    1.97972    -1.20   0.230    -6.255889    1.504473
        1960  |  -3.274102   1.609616    -2.03   0.042    -6.428892    -.119312
        1961  |  -1.174386   1.483299    -0.79   0.429    -4.081599    1.732827
        1962  |  -.6553724   1.479062    -0.44   0.658    -3.554281    2.243536
        1963  |  -.8012255    1.47599    -0.54   0.587    -3.694113    2.091662
        1964  |  -1.606399   1.317255    -1.22   0.223     -4.18817    .9753731
        1965  |  -1.820499   1.353846    -1.34   0.179    -4.473989    .8329912
        1966  |  -1.625411   1.289715    -1.26   0.208    -4.153206    .9023846
        1967  |  -1.680943   1.270924    -1.32   0.186    -4.171909    .8100222
        1968  |  -1.934691   1.208472    -1.60   0.109    -4.303252    .4338703
        1969  |  -1.645915   1.266798    -1.30   0.194    -4.128793    .8369625
        1970  |  -1.782628   1.242289    -1.43   0.151     -4.21747    .6522142
        1971  |  -.8033979   1.078931    -0.74   0.456    -2.918064    1.311268
        1972  |  -2.557507   1.291632    -1.98   0.048    -5.089059   -.0259547
        1973  |  -3.209358   1.412464    -2.27   0.023    -5.977737   -.4409795
        1974  |  -1.545663   1.343963    -1.15   0.250    -4.179782    1.088456
        1975  |  -1.371378   1.295995    -1.06   0.290    -3.911482    1.168725
        1976  |  -1.142106   1.277949    -0.89   0.371    -3.646841    1.362629
        1977  |  -1.401244   1.264707    -1.11   0.268    -3.880023    1.077536
        1978  |  -.1330515   1.292692    -0.10   0.918    -2.666682    2.400579
        1979  |  -1.832856   1.271469    -1.44   0.149    -4.324889    .6591779
        1980  |    1.70674   .9938803     1.72   0.086    -.2412295     3.65471
        1981  |   1.649432   .9927975     1.66   0.097    -.2964157    3.595279
        1982  |   2.163817   .9397883     2.30   0.021     .3218655    4.005768
        1983  |   1.977529   .9592252     2.06   0.039     .0974826    3.857576
        1984  |    2.21393   .9390075     2.36   0.018      .373509    4.054351
        1985  |   1.921651   .9304376     2.07   0.039     .0980271    3.745275
        1986  |   1.405336   .9486706     1.48   0.139    -.4540244    3.264696
        1987  |   1.719986   .9113097     1.89   0.059    -.0661481     3.50612
        1988  |   2.450353   .9186227     2.67   0.008     .6498861    4.250821
        1989  |   .8312264   .9609524     0.87   0.387    -1.052206    2.714658
        1990  |   1.121578   .9589643     1.17   0.242    -.7579574    3.001114
        1991  |   .9075321   .9219817     0.98   0.325    -.8995189    2.714583
        1992  |   1.676905   .9292465     1.80   0.071    -.1443852    3.498194
        1993  |   .9770011   .9905563     0.99   0.324    -.9644535    2.918456
        1994  |   1.213852   1.070913     1.13   0.257    -.8850988    3.312802
        1995  |   1.103291   1.013827     1.09   0.276    -.8837739    3.090356
        1996  |   .9461152   1.002677     0.94   0.345    -1.019095    2.911325
        1997  |   .9514013   .9379214     1.01   0.310    -.8868909    2.789694
        1998  |   1.833948    .923036     1.99   0.047      .024831    3.643066
        1999  |   1.796562   .9186577     1.96   0.051    -.0039745    3.597098
        2000  |   1.118355   .9625794     1.16   0.245    -.7682655    3.004976
        2001  |   .6440067   .9521945     0.68   0.499     -1.22226    2.510274
        2002  |   1.330977   1.034492     1.29   0.198    -.6965898    3.358544
        2003  |    .253156   1.420965     0.18   0.859    -2.531884    3.038196
        2004  |   1.413513   1.189635     1.19   0.235    -.9181293    3.745156
        2005  |    .624883   1.109085     0.56   0.573    -1.548883    2.798649
        2006  |  -.6003656   .8376871    -0.72   0.474    -2.242202    1.041471
        2007  |  -.2350924   .8117276    -0.29   0.772    -1.826049    1.355865
        2008  |   -.117688   .8812171    -0.13   0.894    -1.844842    1.609466
        2009  |    .182429   .9777243     0.19   0.852    -1.733875    2.098733
        2010  |  -.3760306   .9052974    -0.42   0.678    -2.150381     1.39832
        2011  |   .1729422     1.0545     0.16   0.870    -1.893839    2.239723
        2012  |  -.2879974   1.221777    -0.24   0.814    -2.682636    2.106641
        2013  |   .1830536   .7681055     0.24   0.812    -1.322406    1.688513
        2014  |   1.108808   .8009564     1.38   0.166    -.4610376    2.678654
        2015  |    .358784    .815883     0.44   0.660    -1.240317    1.957885
        2016  |  -.4945262   .9189682    -0.54   0.590    -2.295671    1.306618
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.870122   1.375982    -1.36   0.174    -4.566997    .8267537
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.002784   .1918866                      1.626693    2.378874
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.722068   .2611642                      2.255443    3.285232
          rho |   .6925219   .0408594                      .6072686     .766388
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_iran_rev##(c.rel_aff01 c.claim_ideology) rebel_
> ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_d
> yads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1102.1969  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.7278  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.5505  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.5503  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.5503  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1089.5503
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1029.4531
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood =  -988.2998
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -958.72242
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood =  -936.7704
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -920.39542
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -908.57123
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -900.15601
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -901.73648

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -901.87009  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -847.24113  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.56641  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.22043  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.21041  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.21041  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.20833  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.20833  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(76)     =     342.98
Log pseudolikelihood  = -837.20833              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_iran~v |  -3.782955   1.665241    -2.27   0.023    -7.046768   -.5191418
    rel_aff01 |   .7450522   .8268679     0.90   0.368     -.875579    2.365683
claim_ideol~y |   .3491949    .694215     0.50   0.615    -1.011442    1.709831
              |
post_iran_rev#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |   .5189298    .734655     0.71   0.480    -.9209676    1.958827
              |
post_iran_rev#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |   .3784418   .8335269     0.45   0.650    -1.255241    2.012125
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.740559   .8774327     3.12   0.002     1.020823    4.460296
  incomp_terr |  -.5651598   .4297178    -1.32   0.188    -1.407391    .2770715
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0644448   .0326159    -1.98   0.048    -.1283708   -.0005188
 vdem_rescale |  -.0246245   .0533155    -0.46   0.644     -.129121     .079872
vdem_rescal~q |   .0072112   .0077411     0.93   0.352    -.0079611    .0223834
 active_dyads |    .080523   .1343949     0.60   0.549    -.1828861    .3439322
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.152093   1.265165    -0.91   0.362    -3.631771    1.327586
        1952  |  -1.428346   1.406274    -1.02   0.310    -4.184593      1.3279
        1953  |   .0990058   1.366192     0.07   0.942    -2.578681    2.776693
        1954  |  -3.187967   1.572627    -2.03   0.043    -6.270258    -.105675
        1955  |  -1.442073   2.093315    -0.69   0.491    -5.544894    2.660749
        1956  |  -2.317575   2.291588    -1.01   0.312    -6.809006    2.173855
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.567969   1.842083    -0.85   0.395    -5.178386    2.042447
        1959  |  -2.330568   1.987063    -1.17   0.241    -6.225139    1.564003
        1960  |  -3.223721   1.634775    -1.97   0.049    -6.427822    -.019621
        1961  |  -1.093832   1.521756    -0.72   0.472     -4.07642    1.888755
        1962  |  -.5664604   1.509898    -0.38   0.708    -3.525805    2.392885
        1963  |  -.6995415   1.501999    -0.47   0.641    -3.643405    2.244322
        1964  |  -1.511491   1.369112    -1.10   0.270    -4.194901    1.171919
        1965  |  -1.718353   1.397078    -1.23   0.219    -4.456576     1.01987
        1966  |  -1.505124   1.323612    -1.14   0.255    -4.099357    1.089108
        1967  |  -1.566584   1.305518    -1.20   0.230    -4.125353    .9921856
        1968  |  -1.825008   1.283518    -1.42   0.155    -4.340657    .6906408
        1969  |  -1.532265   1.320655    -1.16   0.246    -4.120701    1.056171
        1970  |  -1.661386   1.303699    -1.27   0.203    -4.216589    .8938166
        1971  |  -.6917489    1.10116    -0.63   0.530    -2.849983    1.466486
        1972  |  -2.446871   1.308578    -1.87   0.062    -5.011636    .1178941
        1973  |  -3.121955    1.45687    -2.14   0.032    -5.977369   -.2665419
        1974  |  -1.434559   1.334153    -1.08   0.282    -4.049451    1.180333
        1975  |  -1.254804   1.277459    -0.98   0.326    -3.758577    1.248969
        1976  |  -1.032982   1.271628    -0.81   0.417    -3.525327    1.459363
        1977  |  -1.307413   1.258888    -1.04   0.299    -3.774788    1.159962
        1978  |  -.0321677   1.285106    -0.03   0.980    -2.550929    2.486593
        1979  |  -1.691275    1.28747    -1.31   0.189     -4.21467    .8321192
        1980  |   1.758562   1.012733     1.74   0.082    -.2263584    3.743482
        1981  |   1.685096   .9988141     1.69   0.092    -.2725434    3.642736
        1982  |   2.191704     .95432     2.30   0.022     .3212709    4.062137
        1983  |   2.005336   .9718998     2.06   0.039     .1004474    3.910225
        1984  |   2.244462   .9450411     2.37   0.018     .3922153    4.096708
        1985  |   1.951633   .9387413     2.08   0.038     .1117337    3.791532
        1986  |    1.43292   .9662619     1.48   0.138    -.4609188    3.326758
        1987  |   1.746878   .9238758     1.89   0.059    -.0638854    3.557641
        1988  |   2.471366   .9287624     2.66   0.008     .6510249    4.291706
        1989  |   .8490176   .9704787     0.87   0.382    -1.053086    2.751121
        1990  |   1.137718   .9688723     1.17   0.240    -.7612365    3.036673
        1991  |    .924077   .9323358     0.99   0.322    -.9032677    2.751422
        1992  |   1.683116   .9345009     1.80   0.072    -.1484719    3.514704
        1993  |   .9800019   .9929422     0.99   0.324    -.9661291    2.926133
        1994  |    1.22199   1.073834     1.14   0.255    -.8826849    3.326665
        1995  |   1.112036   1.018594     1.09   0.275    -.8843717    3.108444
        1996  |   .9512934    1.00717     0.94   0.345    -1.022723    2.925309
        1997  |   .9575423   .9405458     1.02   0.309    -.8858936    2.800978
        1998  |   1.843134   .9271629     1.99   0.047     .0259283     3.66034
        1999  |   1.795435   .9213739     1.95   0.051    -.0104245    3.601295
        2000  |   1.121392    .967009     1.16   0.246    -.7739111    3.016694
        2001  |   .6435198    .956756     0.67   0.501    -1.231688    2.518727
        2002  |   1.330378   1.039075     1.28   0.200    -.7061711    3.366928
        2003  |   .2547951   1.423136     0.18   0.858    -2.534501    3.044091
        2004  |   1.411426    1.19226     1.18   0.236    -.9253618    3.748213
        2005  |   .6132516   1.110771     0.55   0.581    -1.563819    2.790322
        2006  |  -.6082243    .844045    -0.72   0.471    -2.262522    1.046074
        2007  |  -.2439954   .8145936    -0.30   0.765     -1.84057    1.352579
        2008  |   -.124815   .8852908    -0.14   0.888    -1.859953    1.610323
        2009  |    .175196   .9831272     0.18   0.859    -1.751698     2.10209
        2010  |  -.3853815   .9113431    -0.42   0.672    -2.171581    1.400818
        2011  |   .1762748   1.059233     0.17   0.868    -1.899784    2.252334
        2012  |  -.2957336   1.229709    -0.24   0.810     -2.70592    2.114452
        2013  |   .1777862   .7747011     0.23   0.818      -1.3406    1.696172
        2014  |   1.106356   .8062934     1.37   0.170    -.4739496    2.686663
        2015  |   .3546196   .8226923     0.43   0.666    -1.257828    1.967067
        2016  |   -.503504   .9232034    -0.55   0.585    -2.312949    1.305941
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.509068   1.432088    -1.05   0.292    -4.315909    1.297774
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.002482   .1926701                      1.624856    2.380109
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.721658   .2621911                      2.253372     3.28726
          rho |   .6924577    .041031                      .6068304    .7666089
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_2001 i.year
>  if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1106.8493  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1095.1302  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9717  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1094.9716
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1033.1514
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -991.18711
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -961.14938
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -938.89902
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -922.56825
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -911.21733
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -903.23267
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -904.76468

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -903.93493  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -848.35716  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -838.12856  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.79008  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77964  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77964  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77731  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.77731  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(74)     =     344.84
Log pseudolikelihood  = -837.77731              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   1.075147   .6854081     1.57   0.117    -.2682281    2.418522
claim_ideol~y |   .5984271   .3699078     1.62   0.106    -.1265788    1.323433
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.710057   .8555228     3.17   0.002     1.033263    4.386851
  incomp_terr |  -.5463508    .428585    -1.27   0.202    -1.386362    .2936603
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0653592   .0319705    -2.04   0.041    -.1280202   -.0026983
 vdem_rescale |  -.0228402    .052551    -0.43   0.664    -.1258383     .080158
vdem_rescal~q |   .0075606   .0078646     0.96   0.336    -.0078537     .022975
 active_dyads |   .0983643   .1314915     0.75   0.454    -.1593543    .3560828
    post_2001 |   -3.18105   1.416149    -2.25   0.025    -5.956651   -.4054489
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.099349   1.256148    -0.88   0.381    -3.561354    1.362656
        1952  |  -1.378542    1.41346    -0.98   0.329    -4.148873    1.391789
        1953  |   .0963059   1.342213     0.07   0.943    -2.534384    2.726995
        1954  |  -3.244417   1.564674    -2.07   0.038    -6.311123   -.1777121
        1955  |  -1.473015   2.098778    -0.70   0.483    -5.586544    2.640514
        1956  |  -2.356878   2.276769    -1.04   0.301    -6.819264    2.105508
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.62258   1.828086    -0.89   0.375    -5.205563    1.960402
        1959  |  -2.375708    1.97972    -1.20   0.230    -6.255889    1.504473
        1960  |  -3.274102   1.609616    -2.03   0.042    -6.428892    -.119312
        1961  |  -1.174386   1.483299    -0.79   0.429    -4.081599    1.732827
        1962  |  -.6553724   1.479062    -0.44   0.658    -3.554281    2.243536
        1963  |  -.8012255    1.47599    -0.54   0.587    -3.694113    2.091662
        1964  |  -1.606399   1.317255    -1.22   0.223     -4.18817    .9753731
        1965  |  -1.820499   1.353846    -1.34   0.179    -4.473989    .8329912
        1966  |  -1.625411   1.289715    -1.26   0.208    -4.153206    .9023846
        1967  |  -1.680943   1.270924    -1.32   0.186    -4.171909    .8100222
        1968  |  -1.934691   1.208472    -1.60   0.109    -4.303252    .4338703
        1969  |  -1.645915   1.266798    -1.30   0.194    -4.128793    .8369625
        1970  |  -1.782628   1.242289    -1.43   0.151     -4.21747    .6522142
        1971  |  -.8033979   1.078931    -0.74   0.456    -2.918064    1.311268
        1972  |  -2.557507   1.291632    -1.98   0.048    -5.089059   -.0259547
        1973  |  -3.209358   1.412464    -2.27   0.023    -5.977737   -.4409795
        1974  |  -1.545663   1.343963    -1.15   0.250    -4.179782    1.088456
        1975  |  -1.371378   1.295995    -1.06   0.290    -3.911482    1.168725
        1976  |  -1.142106   1.277949    -0.89   0.371    -3.646841    1.362629
        1977  |  -1.401244   1.264707    -1.11   0.268    -3.880023    1.077536
        1978  |  -.1330515   1.292692    -0.10   0.918    -2.666682    2.400579
        1979  |  -1.832856   1.271469    -1.44   0.149    -4.324889    .6591779
        1980  |   -1.47431   1.241501    -1.19   0.235    -3.907608    .9589881
        1981  |  -1.531618   1.281838    -1.19   0.232    -4.043975    .9807389
        1982  |  -1.017233   1.221378    -0.83   0.405     -3.41109    1.376623
        1983  |   -1.20352   1.254526    -0.96   0.337    -3.662346    1.255305
        1984  |  -.9671201   1.216155    -0.80   0.426     -3.35074      1.4165
        1985  |  -1.259399   1.236763    -1.02   0.309     -3.68341    1.164613
        1986  |  -1.775714   1.261498    -1.41   0.159    -4.248204    .6967763
        1987  |  -1.461064   1.246526    -1.17   0.241     -3.90421    .9820826
        1988  |  -.7306964   1.240037    -0.59   0.556    -3.161125    1.699732
        1989  |  -2.349823   1.264723    -1.86   0.063    -4.828635    .1289883
        1990  |  -2.059472   1.285358    -1.60   0.109    -4.578728     .459784
        1991  |  -2.273518   1.281779    -1.77   0.076    -4.785758    .2387222
        1992  |  -1.504145   1.298223    -1.16   0.247    -4.048616    1.040325
        1993  |  -2.204049   1.303927    -1.69   0.091    -4.759698     .351601
        1994  |  -1.967198    1.37463    -1.43   0.152    -4.661424    .7270276
        1995  |  -2.077759   1.349492    -1.54   0.124    -4.722715    .5671974
        1996  |  -2.234935   1.325633    -1.69   0.092    -4.833128    .3632586
        1997  |  -2.229649   1.296549    -1.72   0.085    -4.770839    .3115417
        1998  |  -1.347102   1.293611    -1.04   0.298    -3.882533     1.18833
        1999  |  -1.384488   1.312347    -1.05   0.291    -3.956642    1.187665
        2000  |  -2.062694   1.318119    -1.56   0.118    -4.646161    .5207717
        2001  |  -2.537043   1.309399    -1.94   0.053    -5.103418    .0293316
        2002  |   1.330977   1.034492     1.29   0.198    -.6965898    3.358544
        2003  |    .253156   1.420965     0.18   0.859    -2.531884    3.038196
        2004  |   1.413513   1.189635     1.19   0.235    -.9181293    3.745156
        2005  |    .624883   1.109085     0.56   0.573    -1.548883    2.798649
        2006  |  -.6003656   .8376871    -0.72   0.474    -2.242202    1.041471
        2007  |  -.2350924   .8117276    -0.29   0.772    -1.826049    1.355865
        2008  |   -.117688   .8812171    -0.13   0.894    -1.844842    1.609466
        2009  |    .182429   .9777243     0.19   0.852    -1.733875    2.098733
        2010  |  -.3760306   .9052974    -0.42   0.678    -2.150381     1.39832
        2011  |   .1729422     1.0545     0.16   0.870    -1.893839    2.239723
        2012  |  -.2879974   1.221777    -0.24   0.814    -2.682636    2.106641
        2013  |   .1830536   .7681055     0.24   0.812    -1.322406    1.688513
        2014  |   1.108808   .8009564     1.38   0.166    -.4610376    2.678654
        2015  |    .358784    .815883     0.44   0.660    -1.240317    1.957885
        2016  |  -.4945262   .9189682    -0.54   0.590    -2.295671    1.306618
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.870122   1.375982    -1.36   0.174    -4.566997    .8267537
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.002784   .1918866                      1.626693    2.378874
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.722068   .2611642                      2.255443    3.285232
          rho |   .6925219   .0408594                      .6072686     .766388
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
.**** xtlogit intensity_level01 post_2001##(c.rel_aff01 c.claim_ideology) rebel_ext_
> mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads
>  i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)

**** does not converge ****

. ******************************************************************************
> *******************

. 
. * Table A7-C. Conflict Intensity - Monadic - Types, Different Temporal Thresho
> lds (post-Iranian Revolution, post-Cold War, post-9/11) *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *******************

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support 
> incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_w
> ar i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1101.9955  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.6359  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4651  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1028.6056
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -987.51321
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -958.19275
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -936.49286
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -920.37233
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -909.28467
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -902.07474
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -903.53249

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -902.32298  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -848.16518  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.63867  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.34891  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.33947  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.33933  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -837.3378  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -837.3378  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(75)     =     357.77
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -837.3378              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   1.028005   .6949091     1.48   0.139     -.333992    2.390002
Theologica..  |   1.955699   .7842346     2.49   0.013     .4186278    3.492771
              |
  claim_other |   .3232084   .4116092     0.79   0.432    -.4835308    1.129948
rebel_ext_m~t |    2.72862   .8448868     3.23   0.001     1.072672    4.384567
  incomp_terr |  -.5856611   .4308315    -1.36   0.174    -1.430075    .2587532
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0632397   .0315464    -2.00   0.045    -.1250695   -.0014098
 vdem_rescale |  -.0246605   .0528046    -0.47   0.640    -.1281556    .0788347
vdem_rescal~q |   .0073471   .0079188     0.93   0.354    -.0081735    .0228677
 active_dyads |   .0760996   .1325127     0.57   0.566    -.1836206    .3358197
post_cold_war |  -3.253942   1.422534    -2.29   0.022    -6.042058   -.4658266
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.135012   1.252601    -0.91   0.365    -3.590064    1.320041
        1952  |  -1.419466   1.400428    -1.01   0.311    -4.164254    1.325323
        1953  |   .0669193   1.333668     0.05   0.960    -2.547022    2.680861
        1954  |  -3.165821   1.548748    -2.04   0.041    -6.201311   -.1303298
        1955  |  -1.440269   2.046159    -0.70   0.482    -5.450668    2.570129
        1956  |  -2.306048    2.25132    -1.02   0.306    -6.718554    2.106457
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.578683   1.809736    -0.87   0.383      -5.1257    1.968334
        1959  |  -2.334254   1.958698    -1.19   0.233    -6.173231    1.504724
        1960  |  -3.219611   1.609315    -2.00   0.045     -6.37381   -.0654116
        1961  |  -1.143754   1.479025    -0.77   0.439    -4.042589    1.755081
        1962  |  -.6102145   1.475526    -0.41   0.679    -3.502192    2.281763
        1963  |   -.747728   1.476913    -0.51   0.613    -3.642424    2.146968
        1964  |  -1.570017   1.321651    -1.19   0.235    -4.160404    1.020371
        1965  |  -1.771553   1.358771    -1.30   0.192    -4.434695    .8915886
        1966  |  -1.582173   1.295614    -1.22   0.222     -4.12153     .957184
        1967  |  -1.642775   1.279272    -1.28   0.199    -4.150102    .8645517
        1968  |   -1.89886   1.223404    -1.55   0.121    -4.296688    .4989686
        1969  |  -1.602508   1.279133    -1.25   0.210    -4.109563     .904547
        1970  |  -1.737511   1.258194    -1.38   0.167    -4.203525    .7285034
        1971  |  -.7722561   1.089861    -0.71   0.479    -2.908344    1.363831
        1972  |  -2.531178    1.30884    -1.93   0.053    -5.096458    .0341015
        1973  |  -3.169349   1.428276    -2.22   0.026    -5.968718   -.3699806
        1974  |  -1.527998   1.353973    -1.13   0.259    -4.181736    1.125741
        1975  |  -1.345202   1.305439    -1.03   0.303    -3.903816    1.213412
        1976  |  -1.114062    1.28698    -0.87   0.387    -3.636497    1.408372
        1977  |  -1.366843   1.273684    -1.07   0.283    -3.863219    1.129532
        1978  |  -.0995431   1.299561    -0.08   0.939    -2.646635    2.447549
        1979  |  -1.808353   1.280012    -1.41   0.158    -4.317131    .7004246
        1980  |  -1.455674   1.248118    -1.17   0.243     -3.90194    .9905913
        1981  |  -1.507268   1.284012    -1.17   0.240    -4.023886    1.009349
        1982  |  -.9975828   1.227337    -0.81   0.416    -3.403119    1.407953
        1983  |  -1.183349   1.255947    -0.94   0.346     -3.64496    1.278262
        1984  |  -.9450397   1.219876    -0.77   0.439    -3.335952    1.445873
        1985  |  -1.240185   1.238951    -1.00   0.317    -3.668485    1.188116
        1986  |  -1.758781   1.267931    -1.39   0.165    -4.243881    .7263194
        1987  |  -1.446538   1.249686    -1.16   0.247    -3.895876    1.002801
        1988  |  -.7138143   1.247078    -0.57   0.567    -3.158042    1.730413
        1989  |  -2.344765   1.271524    -1.84   0.065    -4.836905    .1473751
        1990  |  -2.046672   1.292749    -1.58   0.113    -4.580413    .4870692
        1991  |   .9814922   .9249604     1.06   0.289    -.8313968    2.794381
        1992  |   1.741184   .9256803     1.88   0.060    -.0731164    3.555484
        1993  |   1.028817   .9860595     1.04   0.297    -.9038246    2.961458
        1994  |   1.273236   1.064643     1.20   0.232     -.813426    3.359899
        1995  |   1.169487    1.01397     1.15   0.249    -.8178583    3.156833
        1996  |   1.014618   1.002712     1.01   0.312    -.9506609    2.979897
        1997  |   1.007915    .936816     1.08   0.282    -.8282111     2.84404
        1998  |    1.87826   .9232291     2.03   0.042     .0687641    3.687756
        1999  |   1.828202   .9166188     1.99   0.046     .0316624    3.624742
        2000  |   1.156322   .9620824     1.20   0.229    -.7293252    3.041969
        2001  |   .6902654   .9566786     0.72   0.471     -1.18479    2.565321
        2002  |   1.373431   1.031401     1.33   0.183    -.6480768    3.394939
        2003  |   .2865172    1.41923     0.20   0.840    -2.495123    3.068157
        2004  |    1.42571   1.189005     1.20   0.230     -.904698    3.756118
        2005  |   .6534366   1.117002     0.58   0.559    -1.535847     2.84272
        2006  |  -.5763424   .8474252    -0.68   0.496    -2.237265     1.08458
        2007  |  -.2289263   .8154794    -0.28   0.779    -1.827237    1.369384
        2008  |  -.1097176   .8860406    -0.12   0.901    -1.846325     1.62689
        2009  |   .1937935    .986037     0.20   0.844    -1.738804    2.126391
        2010  |  -.3743817   .9114009    -0.41   0.681    -2.160695    1.411931
        2011  |    .212398   1.060023     0.20   0.841    -1.865208    2.290004
        2012  |   -.289583   1.231111    -0.24   0.814    -2.702516     2.12335
        2013  |   .1806701   .7747013     0.23   0.816    -1.337717    1.699057
        2014  |   1.113024   .8093626     1.38   0.169    -.4732975    2.699346
        2015  |    .369035   .8253856     0.45   0.655    -1.248691    1.986761
        2016  |  -.4973064   .9233835    -0.54   0.590    -2.307105    1.312492
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.766894    1.38102    -1.28   0.201    -4.473642     .939855
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.986062   .1907109                      1.612276    2.359849
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.699404   .2574029                      2.239243    3.254128
          rho |   .6889499    .040869                      .6038249    .7629644
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.rel_claim_types c.claim_other) reb
> el_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq activ
> e_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1097.3166  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.1161  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1082.8481  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1082.8471  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1082.8471  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1082.8471
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1023.9314
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -983.96085
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood =   -955.335
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -934.00447
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -918.06167
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -906.71032
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -900.05713
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -901.22559

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -900.50037  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -846.10175  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.31535  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.02709  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.01138  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.01138  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.00621  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.00621  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(78)     =     419.48
Log pseudolikelihood  = -835.00621              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.081206    1.68784    -1.83   0.068    -6.389313       .2269
              |
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .9028282   .6819599     1.32   0.186    -.4337886    2.239445
Theologica..  |   2.916657   .9868497     2.96   0.003     .9824673    4.850847
              |
  claim_other |   .6209956    .509005     1.22   0.222    -.3766359    1.618627
              |
post_cold_war#|
rel_claim_t~s |
           1 #|
Religious ..  |   .2238407   .9060509     0.25   0.805    -1.551986    1.999668
           1 #|
Theologica..  |   -1.31725   1.145081    -1.15   0.250    -3.561568    .9270672
              |
post_cold_war#|
c.claim_other |
           1  |   -.712793   .7486401    -0.95   0.341    -2.180101    .7545146
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.714749   .8283628     3.28   0.001     1.091188     4.33831
  incomp_terr |  -.5860303   .4269929    -1.37   0.170    -1.422921    .2508604
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0610039   .0315212    -1.94   0.053    -.1227843    .0007765
 vdem_rescale |  -.0236205   .0515562    -0.46   0.647    -.1246687    .0774277
vdem_rescal~q |   .0071809   .0078701     0.91   0.362    -.0082443    .0226061
 active_dyads |    .009768   .1219214     0.08   0.936    -.2291936    .2487296
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.127207   1.233877    -0.91   0.361    -3.545561    1.291146
        1952  |  -1.402514   1.386609    -1.01   0.312    -4.120218    1.315191
        1953  |  -.0178657   1.281599    -0.01   0.989    -2.529754    2.494023
        1954  |  -3.272484   1.544599    -2.12   0.034    -6.299842   -.2451259
        1955  |  -1.520493   2.102713    -0.72   0.470    -5.641734    2.600748
        1956  |  -2.408399   2.271937    -1.06   0.289    -6.861315    2.044517
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.691077   1.814601    -0.93   0.351    -5.247629    1.865475
        1959  |  -2.431372   1.969682    -1.23   0.217    -6.291878    1.429134
        1960  |  -3.312967     1.5956    -2.08   0.038    -6.440286   -.1856481
        1961  |  -1.266651   1.473206    -0.86   0.390    -4.154081    1.620779
        1962  |  -.7323687   1.471067    -0.50   0.619    -3.615607     2.15087
        1963  |  -.8604299   1.462993    -0.59   0.556    -3.727844    2.006984
        1964  |  -1.696918   1.304911    -1.30   0.193    -4.254496    .8606604
        1965  |  -1.907271   1.335666    -1.43   0.153    -4.525129    .7105862
        1966  |  -1.706966   1.270122    -1.34   0.179    -4.196358     .782427
        1967  |  -1.771083   1.252516    -1.41   0.157     -4.22597    .6838033
        1968  |  -2.029952   1.196001    -1.70   0.090    -4.374071    .3141664
        1969  |  -1.719472   1.246624    -1.38   0.168    -4.162809    .7238656
        1970  |  -1.851656   1.228216    -1.51   0.132    -4.258916    .5556035
        1971  |  -.8870486   1.063248    -0.83   0.404    -2.970975    1.196878
        1972  |  -2.670381   1.264505    -2.11   0.035    -5.148765   -.1919975
        1973  |  -3.322819   1.386096    -2.40   0.017    -6.039517   -.6061218
        1974  |  -1.662931   1.310604    -1.27   0.205    -4.231667    .9058045
        1975  |  -1.481491   1.262765    -1.17   0.241    -3.956465    .9934836
        1976  |  -1.248026   1.251501    -1.00   0.319    -3.700923    1.204871
        1977  |  -1.490182    1.23667    -1.20   0.228    -3.914011     .933646
        1978  |  -.2292225   1.263915    -0.18   0.856    -2.706451    2.248006
        1979  |  -1.972462   1.249531    -1.58   0.114    -4.421497    .4765738
        1980  |  -1.637285   1.221136    -1.34   0.180    -4.030668    .7560983
        1981  |  -1.683486   1.259527    -1.34   0.181    -4.152113     .785142
        1982  |  -1.167402   1.193928    -0.98   0.328    -3.507459    1.172655
        1983  |  -1.348707   1.227961    -1.10   0.272    -3.755466    1.058051
        1984  |  -1.100348   1.191916    -0.92   0.356     -3.43646    1.235764
        1985  |  -1.411788   1.201197    -1.18   0.240     -3.76609    .9425152
        1986  |   -1.92688   1.243664    -1.55   0.121    -4.364417    .5106565
        1987  |   -1.61821   1.222518    -1.32   0.186    -4.014301    .7778806
        1988  |  -.9022966    1.21558    -0.74   0.458    -3.284789    1.480196
        1989  |  -2.587227    1.25423    -2.06   0.039    -5.045472   -.1289824
        1990  |  -2.220566    1.28243    -1.73   0.083    -4.734082    .2929504
        1991  |   1.067398   .9227951     1.16   0.247    -.7412475    2.876043
        1992  |   1.760294   .9163338     1.92   0.055    -.0356875    3.556275
        1993  |    1.05319   .9839267     1.07   0.284    -.8752704    2.981651
        1994  |   1.290771   1.049805     1.23   0.219    -.7668094    3.348352
        1995  |   1.212295   .9979502     1.21   0.224    -.7436516    3.168241
        1996  |    1.08943   .9845818     1.11   0.269    -.8403145    3.019175
        1997  |   1.056051   .9321797     1.13   0.257    -.7709875     2.88309
        1998  |    1.92256    .918852     2.09   0.036     .1216428    3.723476
        1999  |   1.889456    .899413     2.10   0.036     .1266388    3.652273
        2000  |   1.204607   .9743544     1.24   0.216    -.7050921    3.114307
        2001  |    .734938     .96235     0.76   0.445    -1.151233    2.621109
        2002  |   1.428033   1.031473     1.38   0.166    -.5936165    3.449683
        2003  |   .3429325   1.414024     0.24   0.808    -2.428503    3.114368
        2004  |   1.485769   1.187557     1.25   0.211    -.8417991    3.813338
        2005  |   .6970803   1.105987     0.63   0.529    -1.470615    2.864775
        2006  |  -.5211804   .8465819    -0.62   0.538     -2.18045     1.13809
        2007  |  -.1731437    .815324    -0.21   0.832    -1.771149    1.424862
        2008  |  -.0714823   .8843871    -0.08   0.936    -1.804849    1.661884
        2009  |   .2223377   .9928233     0.22   0.823     -1.72356    2.168236
        2010  |  -.3235236   .9160824    -0.35   0.724    -2.119012    1.471965
        2011  |   .2693486   1.058303     0.25   0.799    -1.804888    2.343585
        2012  |  -.2959143   1.232229    -0.24   0.810    -2.711038    2.119209
        2013  |    .204808    .773433     0.26   0.791    -1.311093    1.720709
        2014  |   1.126879   .8100105     1.39   0.164     -.460712    2.714471
        2015  |   .3867895   .8146198     0.47   0.635    -1.209836    1.983415
        2016  |  -.5322455   .9261386    -0.57   0.565    -2.347444    1.282953
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.695809   1.362534    -1.24   0.213    -4.366327    .9747091
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.986851    .192926                      1.608723    2.364979
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.700469   .2604954                      2.235269    3.262486
          rho |    .689119   .0413313                      .6029748     .763891
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support 
> incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_iran_r
> ev i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1101.9955  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.6359  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4651  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1028.6056
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -987.51321
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -958.19275
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -936.49286
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -920.37233
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -909.28467
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -902.07474
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -903.53249

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -902.32298  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -848.16518  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.63867  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.34891  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.33947  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.33933  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -837.3378  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -837.3378  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(75)     =     357.77
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -837.3378              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   1.028005   .6949091     1.48   0.139     -.333992    2.390002
Theologica..  |   1.955699   .7842346     2.49   0.013     .4186278    3.492771
              |
  claim_other |   .3232084   .4116092     0.79   0.432    -.4835308    1.129948
rebel_ext_m~t |    2.72862   .8448868     3.23   0.001     1.072672    4.384567
  incomp_terr |  -.5856611   .4308315    -1.36   0.174    -1.430075    .2587532
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0632397   .0315464    -2.00   0.045    -.1250695   -.0014098
 vdem_rescale |  -.0246605   .0528046    -0.47   0.640    -.1281556    .0788347
vdem_rescal~q |   .0073471   .0079188     0.93   0.354    -.0081735    .0228677
 active_dyads |   .0760996   .1325127     0.57   0.566    -.1836206    .3358197
post_iran_rev |  -3.253942   1.422534    -2.29   0.022    -6.042058   -.4658266
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.135012   1.252601    -0.91   0.365    -3.590064    1.320041
        1952  |  -1.419466   1.400428    -1.01   0.311    -4.164254    1.325323
        1953  |   .0669193   1.333668     0.05   0.960    -2.547022    2.680861
        1954  |  -3.165821   1.548748    -2.04   0.041    -6.201311   -.1303298
        1955  |  -1.440269   2.046159    -0.70   0.482    -5.450668    2.570129
        1956  |  -2.306048    2.25132    -1.02   0.306    -6.718554    2.106457
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.578683   1.809736    -0.87   0.383      -5.1257    1.968334
        1959  |  -2.334254   1.958698    -1.19   0.233    -6.173231    1.504724
        1960  |  -3.219611   1.609315    -2.00   0.045     -6.37381   -.0654116
        1961  |  -1.143754   1.479025    -0.77   0.439    -4.042589    1.755081
        1962  |  -.6102145   1.475526    -0.41   0.679    -3.502192    2.281763
        1963  |   -.747728   1.476913    -0.51   0.613    -3.642424    2.146968
        1964  |  -1.570017   1.321651    -1.19   0.235    -4.160404    1.020371
        1965  |  -1.771553   1.358771    -1.30   0.192    -4.434695    .8915886
        1966  |  -1.582173   1.295614    -1.22   0.222     -4.12153     .957184
        1967  |  -1.642775   1.279272    -1.28   0.199    -4.150102    .8645517
        1968  |   -1.89886   1.223404    -1.55   0.121    -4.296688    .4989686
        1969  |  -1.602508   1.279133    -1.25   0.210    -4.109563     .904547
        1970  |  -1.737511   1.258194    -1.38   0.167    -4.203525    .7285034
        1971  |  -.7722561   1.089861    -0.71   0.479    -2.908344    1.363831
        1972  |  -2.531178    1.30884    -1.93   0.053    -5.096458    .0341015
        1973  |  -3.169349   1.428276    -2.22   0.026    -5.968718   -.3699806
        1974  |  -1.527998   1.353973    -1.13   0.259    -4.181736    1.125741
        1975  |  -1.345202   1.305439    -1.03   0.303    -3.903816    1.213412
        1976  |  -1.114062    1.28698    -0.87   0.387    -3.636497    1.408372
        1977  |  -1.366843   1.273684    -1.07   0.283    -3.863219    1.129532
        1978  |  -.0995431   1.299561    -0.08   0.939    -2.646635    2.447549
        1979  |  -1.808353   1.280012    -1.41   0.158    -4.317131    .7004246
        1980  |   1.798268   1.003908     1.79   0.073    -.1693548    3.765891
        1981  |   1.746674   1.001108     1.74   0.081    -.2154611     3.70881
        1982  |    2.25636   .9456651     2.39   0.017     .4028902    4.109829
        1983  |   2.070593   .9642447     2.15   0.032     .1807084    3.960478
        1984  |   2.308903   .9491572     2.43   0.015     .4485889    4.169217
        1985  |   2.013758   .9384706     2.15   0.032     .1743893    3.853126
        1986  |   1.495162   .9595253     1.56   0.119    -.3854733    3.375797
        1987  |   1.807405   .9167931     1.97   0.049     .0105235    3.604286
        1988  |   2.540128   .9284454     2.74   0.006     .7204087    4.359848
        1989  |   .9091773   .9648794     0.94   0.346    -.9819515    2.800306
        1990  |   1.207271   .9601602     1.26   0.209    -.6746087     3.08915
        1991  |   .9814922   .9249604     1.06   0.289    -.8313968    2.794381
        1992  |   1.741184   .9256803     1.88   0.060    -.0731164    3.555484
        1993  |   1.028817   .9860595     1.04   0.297    -.9038246    2.961458
        1994  |   1.273236   1.064643     1.20   0.232     -.813426    3.359899
        1995  |   1.169487    1.01397     1.15   0.249    -.8178583    3.156833
        1996  |   1.014618   1.002712     1.01   0.312    -.9506609    2.979897
        1997  |   1.007915    .936816     1.08   0.282    -.8282111     2.84404
        1998  |    1.87826   .9232291     2.03   0.042     .0687641    3.687756
        1999  |   1.828202   .9166188     1.99   0.046     .0316624    3.624742
        2000  |   1.156322   .9620824     1.20   0.229    -.7293252    3.041969
        2001  |   .6902654   .9566786     0.72   0.471     -1.18479    2.565321
        2002  |   1.373431   1.031401     1.33   0.183    -.6480768    3.394939
        2003  |   .2865172    1.41923     0.20   0.840    -2.495123    3.068157
        2004  |    1.42571   1.189005     1.20   0.230     -.904698    3.756118
        2005  |   .6534366   1.117002     0.58   0.559    -1.535847     2.84272
        2006  |  -.5763424   .8474252    -0.68   0.496    -2.237265     1.08458
        2007  |  -.2289263   .8154794    -0.28   0.779    -1.827237    1.369384
        2008  |  -.1097176   .8860406    -0.12   0.901    -1.846325     1.62689
        2009  |   .1937935    .986037     0.20   0.844    -1.738804    2.126391
        2010  |  -.3743817   .9114009    -0.41   0.681    -2.160695    1.411931
        2011  |    .212398   1.060023     0.20   0.841    -1.865208    2.290004
        2012  |   -.289583   1.231111    -0.24   0.814    -2.702516     2.12335
        2013  |   .1806701   .7747013     0.23   0.816    -1.337717    1.699057
        2014  |   1.113024   .8093626     1.38   0.169    -.4732975    2.699346
        2015  |    .369035   .8253856     0.45   0.655    -1.248691    1.986761
        2016  |  -.4973064   .9233835    -0.54   0.590    -2.307105    1.312492
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.766894    1.38102    -1.28   0.201    -4.473642     .939855
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.986062   .1907109                      1.612276    2.359849
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.699404   .2574029                      2.239243    3.254128
          rho |   .6889499    .040869                      .6038249    .7629644
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_iran_rev##(i.rel_claim_types c.claim_other) reb
> el_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq activ
> e_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1094.6097  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1081.0825  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1080.873  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1080.8727  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1080.8727  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1080.8727
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1021.8967
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood =  -981.7928
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -953.12711
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -931.89768
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -915.94723
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -904.80959
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -897.84101
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -899.72005

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -898.64154  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -846.92577  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.90871  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.64336  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.63512  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.63512  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.63466  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.63466  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(78)     =     353.68
Log pseudolikelihood  = -836.63466              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_iran~v |  -3.798381   1.650475    -2.30   0.021    -7.033252   -.5635088
              |
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .7494129   .8267489     0.91   0.365    -.8709852    2.369811
Theologica..  |   .4763245   1.571791     0.30   0.762    -2.604328    3.556977
              |
  claim_other |   .1909946   .6966397     0.27   0.784    -1.174394    1.556383
              |
post_iran_rev#|
rel_claim_t~s |
           1 #|
Religious ..  |   .4486063   .7408494     0.61   0.545    -1.003432    1.900644
           1 #|
Theologica..  |   1.776963   1.598532     1.11   0.266    -1.356102    4.910029
              |
post_iran_rev#|
c.claim_other |
           1  |   .2157703   .8748398     0.25   0.805    -1.498884    1.930425
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |    2.73556   .8509366     3.21   0.001     1.067755    4.403365
  incomp_terr |   -.591794   .4274467    -1.38   0.166    -1.429574    .2459861
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0609069   .0317949    -1.92   0.055    -.1232238      .00141
 vdem_rescale |  -.0277865   .0534517    -0.52   0.603      -.13255     .076977
vdem_rescal~q |   .0070773   .0077967     0.91   0.364     -.008204    .0223586
 active_dyads |   .0515718   .1374553     0.38   0.708    -.2178357    .3209793
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.173563   1.265912    -0.93   0.354    -3.654704    1.307579
        1952  |   -1.45349    1.40094    -1.04   0.299    -4.199282    1.292301
        1953  |   .1168005   1.378632     0.08   0.932    -2.585268    2.818869
        1954  |  -3.151442   1.564296    -2.01   0.044    -6.217406   -.0854787
        1955  |  -1.439246   2.081367    -0.69   0.489     -5.51865    2.640158
        1956  |  -2.296743   2.280793    -1.01   0.314    -6.767015     2.17353
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.529448     1.8335    -0.83   0.404    -5.123042    2.064147
        1959  |  -2.305681   1.974798    -1.17   0.243    -6.176214    1.564852
        1960  |  -3.206265   1.628697    -1.97   0.049    -6.398453   -.0140775
        1961  |  -1.116714   1.515827    -0.74   0.461    -4.087681    1.854252
        1962  |  -.6044894   1.506844    -0.40   0.688     -3.55785    2.348871
        1963  |  -.7372724   1.501586    -0.49   0.623    -3.680327    2.205782
        1964  |  -1.564055   1.374402    -1.14   0.255    -4.257832    1.129723
        1965  |  -1.760355   1.397056    -1.26   0.208    -4.498536    .9778252
        1966  |  -1.559011   1.324691    -1.18   0.239    -4.155358    1.037336
        1967  |  -1.621774   1.308389    -1.24   0.215    -4.186169    .9426205
        1968  |  -1.881503   1.292351    -1.46   0.145    -4.414464    .6514574
        1969  |   -1.57997   1.320292    -1.20   0.231    -4.167694    1.007754
        1970  |  -1.710486   1.309486    -1.31   0.191    -4.277032    .8560591
        1971  |  -.7581069    1.10501    -0.69   0.493    -2.923887    1.407674
        1972  |  -2.515227   1.310995    -1.92   0.055     -5.08473    .0542756
        1973  |  -3.176634   1.454994    -2.18   0.029    -6.028371   -.3248976
        1974  |  -1.508679   1.329129    -1.14   0.256    -4.113724    1.096366
        1975  |  -1.323414   1.274385    -1.04   0.299    -3.821163    1.174335
        1976  |   -1.07708   1.271534    -0.85   0.397    -3.569241     1.41508
        1977  |  -1.352196   1.258609    -1.07   0.283    -3.819024    1.114632
        1978  |  -.0809413   1.285111    -0.06   0.950    -2.599712    2.437829
        1979  |  -1.678653   1.288666    -1.30   0.193    -4.204392    .8470871
        1980  |   1.846581   1.019242     1.81   0.070    -.1510958    3.844259
        1981  |   1.784341   1.004663     1.78   0.076    -.1847628    3.753444
        1982  |   2.286306   .9558163     2.39   0.017     .4129407    4.159672
        1983  |   2.106344   .9727773     2.17   0.030     .1997354    4.012953
        1984  |   2.346805   .9518494     2.47   0.014     .4812148    4.212396
        1985  |   2.050914   .9446592     2.17   0.030     .1994161    3.902412
        1986  |   1.532175   .9719412     1.58   0.115    -.3727949    3.437144
        1987  |   1.843573   .9250025     1.99   0.046     .0306017    3.656545
        1988  |   2.571332   .9375397     2.74   0.006     .7337876    4.408876
        1989  |   .9277022   .9732383     0.95   0.340    -.9798099    2.835214
        1990  |   1.227133   .9684589     1.27   0.205    -.6710119    3.125277
        1991  |   .9989206   .9336989     1.07   0.285    -.8310956    2.828937
        1992  |   1.743122   .9316185     1.87   0.061    -.0828171    3.569061
        1993  |   1.032962   .9870247     1.05   0.295    -.9015712    2.967494
        1994  |   1.278517    1.06511     1.20   0.230    -.8090593    3.366094
        1995  |   1.178905   1.016858     1.16   0.246    -.8141009    3.171911
        1996  |   1.016411   1.007616     1.01   0.313    -.9584794    2.991301
        1997  |   1.018888   .9376593     1.09   0.277    -.8188909    2.856666
        1998  |   1.887416   .9253707     2.04   0.041     .0737225    3.701109
        1999  |   1.828292   .9176407     1.99   0.046     .0297487    3.626834
        2000  |   1.160777   .9653427     1.20   0.229    -.7312602    3.052814
        2001  |   .6940959   .9603676     0.72   0.470     -1.18819    2.576382
        2002  |   1.375283   1.033775     1.33   0.183     -.650879    3.401444
        2003  |   .2912993    1.41923     0.21   0.837    -2.490341     3.07294
        2004  |   1.421956   1.188963     1.20   0.232    -.9083686     3.75228
        2005  |   .6426257   1.117298     0.58   0.565    -1.547239     2.83249
        2006  |  -.5792569   .8530138    -0.68   0.497    -2.251133    1.092619
        2007  |  -.2339247   .8175246    -0.29   0.775    -1.836244    1.368394
        2008  |  -.1140643   .8884355    -0.13   0.898    -1.855366    1.627237
        2009  |   .1880519   .9901713     0.19   0.849    -1.752648    2.128752
        2010  |  -.3799976   .9169543    -0.41   0.679    -2.177195      1.4172
        2011  |   .2254203    1.06314     0.21   0.832    -1.858296    2.309137
        2012  |  -.2964361    1.23741    -0.24   0.811    -2.721715    2.128843
        2013  |   .1761607   .7808772     0.23   0.822     -1.35433    1.706652
        2014  |   1.108802    .814021     1.36   0.173    -.4866497    2.704254
        2015  |   .3651474   .8304569     0.44   0.660    -1.262518    1.992813
        2016  |  -.5058534   .9266284    -0.55   0.585    -2.322012    1.310305
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.435607   1.423647    -1.01   0.313    -4.225905    1.354691
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.968495   .1949529                      1.586395    2.350596
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.675798   .2608273                      2.210453    3.239108
          rho |   .6851729   .0420535                      .5976173     .761287
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support 
> incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_2001 i
> .year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1101.9955  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.6359  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4651  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1089.4649
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1028.6056
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -987.51321
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -958.19275
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -936.49286
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -920.37233
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -909.28467
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -902.07474
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -903.53249

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -902.32298  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -848.16518  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.63867  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.34891  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.33947  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.33933  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -837.3378  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -837.3378  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(75)     =     357.77
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -837.3378              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   1.028005   .6949091     1.48   0.139     -.333992    2.390002
Theologica..  |   1.955699   .7842346     2.49   0.013     .4186278    3.492771
              |
  claim_other |   .3232084   .4116092     0.79   0.432    -.4835308    1.129948
rebel_ext_m~t |    2.72862   .8448868     3.23   0.001     1.072672    4.384567
  incomp_terr |  -.5856611   .4308315    -1.36   0.174    -1.430075    .2587532
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0632397   .0315464    -2.00   0.045    -.1250695   -.0014098
 vdem_rescale |  -.0246605   .0528046    -0.47   0.640    -.1281556    .0788347
vdem_rescal~q |   .0073471   .0079188     0.93   0.354    -.0081735    .0228677
 active_dyads |   .0760996   .1325127     0.57   0.566    -.1836206    .3358197
    post_2001 |  -3.253942   1.422534    -2.29   0.022    -6.042058   -.4658266
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.135012   1.252601    -0.91   0.365    -3.590064    1.320041
        1952  |  -1.419466   1.400428    -1.01   0.311    -4.164254    1.325323
        1953  |   .0669193   1.333668     0.05   0.960    -2.547022    2.680861
        1954  |  -3.165821   1.548748    -2.04   0.041    -6.201311   -.1303298
        1955  |  -1.440269   2.046159    -0.70   0.482    -5.450668    2.570129
        1956  |  -2.306048    2.25132    -1.02   0.306    -6.718554    2.106457
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.578683   1.809736    -0.87   0.383      -5.1257    1.968334
        1959  |  -2.334254   1.958698    -1.19   0.233    -6.173231    1.504724
        1960  |  -3.219611   1.609315    -2.00   0.045     -6.37381   -.0654116
        1961  |  -1.143754   1.479025    -0.77   0.439    -4.042589    1.755081
        1962  |  -.6102145   1.475526    -0.41   0.679    -3.502192    2.281763
        1963  |   -.747728   1.476913    -0.51   0.613    -3.642424    2.146968
        1964  |  -1.570017   1.321651    -1.19   0.235    -4.160404    1.020371
        1965  |  -1.771553   1.358771    -1.30   0.192    -4.434695    .8915886
        1966  |  -1.582173   1.295614    -1.22   0.222     -4.12153     .957184
        1967  |  -1.642775   1.279272    -1.28   0.199    -4.150102    .8645517
        1968  |   -1.89886   1.223404    -1.55   0.121    -4.296688    .4989686
        1969  |  -1.602508   1.279133    -1.25   0.210    -4.109563     .904547
        1970  |  -1.737511   1.258194    -1.38   0.167    -4.203525    .7285034
        1971  |  -.7722561   1.089861    -0.71   0.479    -2.908344    1.363831
        1972  |  -2.531178    1.30884    -1.93   0.053    -5.096458    .0341015
        1973  |  -3.169349   1.428276    -2.22   0.026    -5.968718   -.3699806
        1974  |  -1.527998   1.353973    -1.13   0.259    -4.181736    1.125741
        1975  |  -1.345202   1.305439    -1.03   0.303    -3.903816    1.213412
        1976  |  -1.114062    1.28698    -0.87   0.387    -3.636497    1.408372
        1977  |  -1.366843   1.273684    -1.07   0.283    -3.863219    1.129532
        1978  |  -.0995431   1.299561    -0.08   0.939    -2.646635    2.447549
        1979  |  -1.808353   1.280012    -1.41   0.158    -4.317131    .7004246
        1980  |  -1.455674   1.248118    -1.17   0.243     -3.90194    .9905913
        1981  |  -1.507268   1.284012    -1.17   0.240    -4.023886    1.009349
        1982  |  -.9975828   1.227337    -0.81   0.416    -3.403119    1.407953
        1983  |  -1.183349   1.255947    -0.94   0.346     -3.64496    1.278262
        1984  |  -.9450397   1.219876    -0.77   0.439    -3.335952    1.445873
        1985  |  -1.240185   1.238951    -1.00   0.317    -3.668485    1.188116
        1986  |  -1.758781   1.267931    -1.39   0.165    -4.243881    .7263194
        1987  |  -1.446538   1.249686    -1.16   0.247    -3.895876    1.002801
        1988  |  -.7138143   1.247078    -0.57   0.567    -3.158042    1.730413
        1989  |  -2.344765   1.271524    -1.84   0.065    -4.836905    .1473751
        1990  |  -2.046672   1.292749    -1.58   0.113    -4.580413    .4870692
        1991  |   -2.27245    1.28865    -1.76   0.078    -4.798158    .2532575
        1992  |  -1.512759   1.304134    -1.16   0.246    -4.068814    1.043297
        1993  |  -2.225126    1.30931    -1.70   0.089    -4.791326    .3410745
        1994  |  -1.980706   1.378783    -1.44   0.151    -4.683072    .7216597
        1995  |  -2.084455   1.357104    -1.54   0.125    -4.744331    .5754198
        1996  |  -2.239324    1.33504    -1.68   0.093    -4.855955    .3773067
        1997  |  -2.246028   1.301543    -1.73   0.084    -4.797005    .3049494
        1998  |  -1.375683   1.299798    -1.06   0.290    -3.923239    1.171874
        1999  |   -1.42574   1.321852    -1.08   0.281    -4.016523    1.165042
        2000  |  -2.097621   1.324784    -1.58   0.113     -4.69415    .4989086
        2001  |  -2.563677    1.31859    -1.94   0.052    -5.148065    .0207111
        2002  |   1.373431   1.031401     1.33   0.183    -.6480768    3.394939
        2003  |   .2865172    1.41923     0.20   0.840    -2.495123    3.068157
        2004  |    1.42571   1.189005     1.20   0.230     -.904698    3.756118
        2005  |   .6534366   1.117002     0.58   0.559    -1.535847     2.84272
        2006  |  -.5763424   .8474252    -0.68   0.496    -2.237265     1.08458
        2007  |  -.2289263   .8154794    -0.28   0.779    -1.827237    1.369384
        2008  |  -.1097176   .8860406    -0.12   0.901    -1.846325     1.62689
        2009  |   .1937935    .986037     0.20   0.844    -1.738804    2.126391
        2010  |  -.3743817   .9114009    -0.41   0.681    -2.160695    1.411931
        2011  |    .212398   1.060023     0.20   0.841    -1.865208    2.290004
        2012  |   -.289583   1.231111    -0.24   0.814    -2.702516     2.12335
        2013  |   .1806701   .7747013     0.23   0.816    -1.337717    1.699057
        2014  |   1.113024   .8093626     1.38   0.169    -.4732975    2.699346
        2015  |    .369035   .8253856     0.45   0.655    -1.248691    1.986761
        2016  |  -.4973064   .9233835    -0.54   0.590    -2.307105    1.312492
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.766894    1.38102    -1.28   0.201    -4.473642     .939855
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.986062   .1907109                      1.612276    2.359849
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.699404   .2574029                      2.239243    3.254128
          rho |   .6889499    .040869                      .6038249    .7629644
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_2001##(i.rel_claim_types c.claim_other) rebel_e
> xt_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dy
> ads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1.post_2001#0.rel_claim_types != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1.post_2001#0.rel_claim_types dropped and 33 obs not used

note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 1.post_2001#2.rel_claim_types omitted because of collinearity
note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1229.9428  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1096.0037  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.6694  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.4722  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.4719  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1083.4719  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1083.4719
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1023.7983
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood =  -983.4638
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -954.60942
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood =  -933.2098
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -917.23161
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood =  -906.0075
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -898.88161
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -900.90038

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -899.29201  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -845.97039  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.48179  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.18954  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.17866  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.17855  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.17687  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -835.17687  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,437
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        485

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.0
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(77)     =     342.21
Log pseudolikelihood  = -835.17687              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 485 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  1.post_2001 |  -3.269623   1.607422    -2.03   0.042    -6.420112   -.1191348
              |
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .9038673   .7012783     1.29   0.197     -.470613    2.278348
Theologica..  |   1.888798   .8355124     2.26   0.024     .2512241    3.526373
              |
  claim_other |   .5022708   .4369733     1.15   0.250    -.3541812    1.358723
              |
    post_2001#|
rel_claim_t~s |
         1 0  |          0  (empty)
           1 #|
Religious ..  |   .5728001   .7999876     0.72   0.474    -.9951468    2.140747
           1 #|
Theologica..  |          0  (omitted)
              |
    post_2001#|
c.claim_other |
           1  |  -1.255189   .9489781    -1.32   0.186    -3.115152    .6047737
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.732742   .8389641     3.26   0.001     1.088402    4.377081
  incomp_terr |  -.5879395   .4308623    -1.36   0.172    -1.432414    .2565351
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0647257   .0322538    -2.01   0.045    -.1279419   -.0015095
 vdem_rescale |  -.0134335   .0564795    -0.24   0.812    -.1241314    .0972643
vdem_rescal~q |   .0096798   .0083129     1.16   0.244    -.0066131    .0259728
 active_dyads |   .0792863   .1323809     0.60   0.549    -.1801756    .3387481
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.115566    1.25345    -0.89   0.373    -3.572283     1.34115
        1952  |  -1.389153   1.406455    -0.99   0.323    -4.145755    1.367449
        1953  |   .0717093   1.332338     0.05   0.957    -2.539624    2.683043
        1954  |   -3.21072   1.555933    -2.06   0.039    -6.260292   -.1611479
        1955  |  -1.456581    2.08483    -0.70   0.485    -5.542772    2.629611
        1956  |  -2.338222   2.268212    -1.03   0.303    -6.783836    2.107392
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.607367   1.822157    -0.88   0.378     -5.17873    1.963995
        1959  |  -2.362222   1.971286    -1.20   0.231    -6.225873    1.501428
        1960  |  -3.257969   1.608785    -2.03   0.043     -6.41113   -.1048074
        1961  |  -1.177834   1.484533    -0.79   0.428    -4.087465    1.731797
        1962  |  -.6598543   1.479639    -0.45   0.656    -3.559894    2.240186
        1963  |  -.8291809   1.478958    -0.56   0.575    -3.727886    2.069524
        1964  |  -1.649992   1.319943    -1.25   0.211    -4.237031    .9370484
        1965  |  -1.854589   1.355882    -1.37   0.171     -4.51207    .8028913
        1966  |  -1.663913   1.291534    -1.29   0.198    -4.195273    .8674472
        1967  |  -1.719564   1.276517    -1.35   0.178    -4.221491    .7823641
        1968  |  -1.975759   1.214769    -1.63   0.104    -4.356663    .4051442
        1969  |  -1.682677   1.271106    -1.32   0.186       -4.174     .808645
        1970  |  -1.821213   1.249004    -1.46   0.145    -4.269215    .6267897
        1971  |  -.8464622   1.081172    -0.78   0.434     -2.96552    1.272596
        1972  |  -2.615356   1.296155    -2.02   0.044    -5.155773   -.0749389
        1973  |  -3.263681   1.418127    -2.30   0.021    -6.043158   -.4842035
        1974  |  -1.610239   1.346603    -1.20   0.232    -4.249533    1.029055
        1975  |  -1.424749   1.296482    -1.10   0.272    -3.965808    1.116309
        1976  |  -1.190231   1.280235    -0.93   0.353    -3.699445    1.318983
        1977  |   -1.44811   1.266052    -1.14   0.253    -3.929526    1.033306
        1978  |  -.1816432   1.293416    -0.14   0.888    -2.716692    2.353406
        1979  |  -1.892365   1.275194    -1.48   0.138    -4.391699    .6069692
        1980  |  -1.537811   1.244684    -1.24   0.217    -3.977346    .9017244
        1981  |  -1.588079   1.281941    -1.24   0.215    -4.100638    .9244794
        1982  |  -1.080774    1.22472    -0.88   0.378    -3.481181    1.319634
        1983  |  -1.267821    1.25603    -1.01   0.313    -3.729594    1.193952
        1984  |  -1.031828   1.221674    -0.84   0.398    -3.426265    1.362608
        1985  |  -1.327497   1.237995    -1.07   0.284    -3.753923     1.09893
        1986  |  -1.839144    1.26822    -1.45   0.147     -4.32481     .646522
        1987  |  -1.526302    1.25098    -1.22   0.222    -3.978178    .9255735
        1988  |   -.794222   1.245045    -0.64   0.524    -3.234465    1.646021
        1989  |  -2.425975   1.272282    -1.91   0.057    -4.919603    .0676524
        1990  |  -2.110339    1.29535    -1.63   0.103    -4.649178    .4285007
        1991  |  -2.342719   1.294578    -1.81   0.070    -4.880046    .1946073
        1992  |  -1.578405   1.306209    -1.21   0.227    -4.138528    .9817175
        1993  |  -2.289705   1.309579    -1.75   0.080    -4.856432    .2770224
        1994  |  -2.031888   1.385817    -1.47   0.143    -4.748039    .6842635
        1995  |  -2.134278   1.357743    -1.57   0.116    -4.795405    .5268494
        1996  |  -2.296037   1.335205    -1.72   0.086    -4.912992    .3209177
        1997  |  -2.304006   1.299977    -1.77   0.076    -4.851915    .2439029
        1998  |  -1.427609   1.304062    -1.09   0.274    -3.983523    1.128305
        1999  |  -1.487718   1.333822    -1.12   0.265    -4.101961    1.126525
        2000  |  -2.152295   1.313659    -1.64   0.101    -4.727019    .4224286
        2001  |   -2.64285   1.316947    -2.01   0.045     -5.22402   -.0616808
        2002  |    1.48353    1.02236     1.45   0.147    -.5202587    3.487318
        2003  |   .3289182    1.45307     0.23   0.821    -2.519047    3.176883
        2004  |   1.517131   1.188733     1.28   0.202    -.8127421    3.847004
        2005  |   .7383774   1.171864     0.63   0.529    -1.558435     3.03519
        2006  |  -.5753838   .8159971    -0.71   0.481    -2.174709    1.023941
        2007  |  -.2271615    .796538    -0.29   0.776    -1.788347    1.334024
        2008  |  -.1116124   .8717729    -0.13   0.898    -1.820256    1.597031
        2009  |   .2337214   .9927679     0.24   0.814    -1.712068    2.179511
        2010  |  -.3224505   .9025287    -0.36   0.721    -2.091374    1.446473
        2011  |   .2279098   1.054464     0.22   0.829    -1.838803    2.294622
        2012  |   -.267832   1.230816    -0.22   0.828    -2.680187    2.144523
        2013  |   .1926708   .7633202     0.25   0.801    -1.303409    1.688751
        2014  |   1.114713   .8043543     1.39   0.166    -.4617926    2.691219
        2015  |     .41321   .8218168     0.50   0.615    -1.197521    2.023941
        2016  |  -.4849671   .9391703    -0.52   0.606    -2.325707    1.355773
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.706565   1.377414    -1.24   0.215    -4.406246    .9931168
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.996675    .197369                      1.609839    2.383511
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.713766   .2678066                      2.236516    3.292857
          rho |   .6912196   .0421255                      .6032418    .7672171
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *********************

. 
. * Table A8-C. Conflict Intensity - Monadic - Specific Types, Different Tempora
> l Thresholds (post-Iranian Revolution, post-Cold War, post-9/11) *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *********************

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist cl
> aim_libdem rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_re
> scale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robus
> t)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1093.275  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1079.698  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4946  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1020.6985
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -981.08966
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -952.90726
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -932.02316
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -916.30705
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood =  -905.7783
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -899.92535
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood =  -903.3935

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -900.00016  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -847.41215  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.47962  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.20275  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.19007  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.19007  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -836.1863  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -836.1863  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(78)     =     365.09
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -836.1863              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |    .970233   .5677427     1.71   0.087    -.1425223    2.082988
Christian-~l  |   1.012662   .9948796     1.02   0.309    -.9372665     2.96259
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .9202473   .5638969     1.63   0.103    -.1849703    2.025465
Muslim-The~l  |   1.779728   .6644712     2.68   0.007     .4773886    3.082068
              |
claim_commu~t |   .5379454   .5137559     1.05   0.295    -.4689977    1.544889
 claim_libdem |  -.2792354   .5701624    -0.49   0.624    -1.396733    .8382623
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.711157   .8551626     3.17   0.002     1.035069    4.387245
  incomp_terr |  -.4986696   .4282655    -1.16   0.244    -1.338055    .3407154
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.064494   .0314098    -2.05   0.040     -.126056    -.002932
 vdem_rescale |  -.0292144   .0540936    -0.54   0.589    -.1352358     .076807
vdem_rescal~q |    .007951   .0078662     1.01   0.312    -.0074664    .0233684
 active_dyads |   .0727455   .1326186     0.55   0.583    -.1871822    .3326732
post_cold_war |  -3.327424   1.419094    -2.34   0.019    -6.108796   -.5460517
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.109071   1.240515    -0.89   0.371    -3.540437    1.322294
        1952  |   -1.36936   1.391547    -0.98   0.325    -4.096741    1.358021
        1953  |   .0524818    1.32378     0.04   0.968    -2.542079    2.647042
        1954  |     -3.268   1.536848    -2.13   0.033    -6.280167    -.255833
        1955  |  -1.517806   2.113264    -0.72   0.473    -5.659726    2.624115
        1956  |   -2.32543   2.270454    -1.02   0.306    -6.775439    2.124578
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.696655   1.795194    -0.95   0.345    -5.215171    1.821861
        1959  |  -2.334998   1.951097    -1.20   0.231    -6.159077    1.489081
        1960  |   -3.24501   1.596468    -2.03   0.042    -6.374029   -.1159904
        1961  |  -1.186802   1.469473    -0.81   0.419    -4.066916    1.693312
        1962  |  -.6835084   1.466024    -0.47   0.641    -3.556862    2.189845
        1963  |  -.8279422   1.468338    -0.56   0.573    -3.705831    2.049947
        1964  |  -1.699501   1.312742    -1.29   0.195    -4.272428    .8734273
        1965  |   -1.91713    1.34446    -1.43   0.154    -4.552223     .717964
        1966  |  -1.686751   1.280493    -1.32   0.188    -4.196473    .8229696
        1967  |  -1.763759   1.264586    -1.39   0.163    -4.242301    .7147831
        1968  |  -2.010758   1.208626    -1.66   0.096    -4.379622    .3581064
        1969  |  -1.704243   1.262374    -1.35   0.177     -4.17845    .7699653
        1970  |  -1.840366   1.242875    -1.48   0.139    -4.276356    .5956236
        1971  |   -.888425   1.088689    -0.82   0.414    -3.022216    1.245366
        1972  |  -2.657677   1.292228    -2.06   0.040    -5.190397   -.1249579
        1973  |  -3.282409   1.417566    -2.32   0.021    -6.060787   -.5040303
        1974  |  -1.659119   1.336916    -1.24   0.215    -4.279425     .961188
        1975  |  -1.482789   1.284902    -1.15   0.248     -4.00115    1.035573
        1976  |  -1.266907   1.277179    -0.99   0.321    -3.770132    1.236318
        1977  |  -1.512857   1.267248    -1.19   0.233    -3.996617     .970903
        1978  |  -.2414484   1.288928    -0.19   0.851    -2.767701    2.284804
        1979  |  -1.959143   1.277628    -1.53   0.125    -4.463247    .5449618
        1980  |  -1.586741   1.245305    -1.27   0.203    -4.027493    .8540114
        1981  |  -1.643404    1.28113    -1.28   0.200    -4.154372    .8675639
        1982  |    -1.1311   1.220079    -0.93   0.354    -3.522411    1.260211
        1983  |  -1.304094   1.253464    -1.04   0.298     -3.76084    1.152651
        1984  |   -1.06148   1.218244    -0.87   0.384    -3.449195    1.326235
        1985  |  -1.348144   1.237111    -1.09   0.276    -3.772837    1.076548
        1986  |  -1.866584    1.26068    -1.48   0.139    -4.337472    .6043032
        1987  |  -1.522581   1.242134    -1.23   0.220    -3.957119    .9119567
        1988  |  -.7764869   1.238633    -0.63   0.531    -3.204163    1.651189
        1989  |  -2.431873   1.269483    -1.92   0.055    -4.920015    .0562681
        1990  |  -2.119789   1.293931    -1.64   0.101    -4.655847    .4162691
        1991  |    .962414   .9253778     1.04   0.298    -.8512932    2.776121
        1992  |   1.738181   .9300686     1.87   0.062    -.0847199    3.561082
        1993  |   1.011485   .9871737     1.02   0.306    -.9233395     2.94631
        1994  |   1.257308   1.062086     1.18   0.236    -.8243412    3.338958
        1995  |    1.16065   1.013901     1.14   0.252      -.82656     3.14786
        1996  |    1.02799    1.00269     1.03   0.305    -.9372458    2.993226
        1997  |   1.046857   .9374429     1.12   0.264    -.7904971    2.884211
        1998  |   1.912937   .9279518     2.06   0.039     .0941852     3.73169
        1999  |    1.85799   .9168597     2.03   0.043     .0609784    3.655002
        2000  |   1.167084   .9635577     1.21   0.226    -.7214544    3.055622
        2001  |   .7064944   .9552105     0.74   0.460    -1.165684    2.578673
        2002  |   1.401867   1.027842     1.36   0.173    -.6126663    3.416401
        2003  |   .3113393   1.419811     0.22   0.826     -2.47144    3.094119
        2004  |   1.418885    1.19019     1.19   0.233    -.9138446    3.751615
        2005  |   .6532301   1.110095     0.59   0.556    -1.522516    2.828976
        2006  |   -.549452   .8445236    -0.65   0.515    -2.204688    1.105784
        2007  |  -.2040813   .8134318    -0.25   0.802    -1.798378    1.390216
        2008  |  -.0898706   .8846157    -0.10   0.919    -1.823685    1.643944
        2009  |   .2043402    .985539     0.21   0.836    -1.727281    2.135961
        2010  |  -.3561138   .9085503    -0.39   0.695     -2.13684    1.424612
        2011  |   .2490584   1.058687     0.24   0.814    -1.825929    2.324046
        2012  |  -.2854946   1.228227    -0.23   0.816    -2.692776    2.121786
        2013  |   .2005651   .7697606     0.26   0.794    -1.308138    1.709268
        2014  |   1.117812   .8068257     1.39   0.166    -.4635375    2.699161
        2015  |   .3812407    .821798     0.46   0.643    -1.229454    1.991935
        2016  |  -.5007055   .9229969    -0.54   0.587    -2.309746    1.308335
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.431389   1.221156    -1.17   0.241     -3.82481    .9620333
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.973408   .1934734                      1.594207    2.352609
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.682379   .2594844                      2.219104     3.24237
          rho |   .6862317   .0416582                      .5994946    .7616526
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type c.
> claim_communist c.claim_libdem) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP
>  vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vc
> e(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1087.6623  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1073.5976  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1073.4067  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1073.4065  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1073.4065  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1073.4065
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood =  -1014.656
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -975.31539
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -947.45058
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -926.78704
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -911.24452
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -901.10476
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -896.28488
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -898.26705

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -895.30961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -841.37296  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.83479  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.46327  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.44291  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.44291  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -829.4355  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -829.4355  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(84)     =     446.13
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -829.4355              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -2.591258   1.592324    -1.63   0.104    -5.712156    .5296398
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.353236   .6462158     2.09   0.036     .0866764    2.619796
Christian-~l  |   1.735941   1.112808     1.56   0.119    -.4451228    3.917005
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .6683767   .5900697     1.13   0.257    -.4881386    1.824892
Muslim-The~l  |   2.973338   .9087364     3.27   0.001     1.192247    4.754428
              |
claim_commu~t |   .5524964    .557832     0.99   0.322    -.5408342    1.645827
 claim_libdem |   .4342199   .7345934     0.59   0.554    -1.005557    1.873997
              |
post_cold_war#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |  -1.098141   .8577215    -1.28   0.200    -2.779244    .5829625
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |  -1.289543   .8607145    -1.50   0.134    -2.976512    .3974262
              |
post_cold_war#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .3172553   .8359998     0.38   0.704    -1.321274    1.955785
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -1.788169   1.026212    -1.74   0.081    -3.799508    .2231703
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |   .2310058   .8775699     0.26   0.792       -1.489    1.951011
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |  -1.314719   .6841556    -1.92   0.055     -2.65564    .0262009
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.859308   .8840404     3.23   0.001     1.126621    4.591995
  incomp_terr |  -.4436544    .440291    -1.01   0.314    -1.306609       .4193
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0671597   .0320286    -2.10   0.036    -.1299346   -.0043849
 vdem_rescale |   -.044482   .0587392    -0.76   0.449    -.1596088    .0706448
vdem_rescal~q |     .00699   .0082209     0.85   0.395    -.0091228    .0231028
 active_dyads |   .0034792   .1225382     0.03   0.977    -.2366912    .2436495
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.065375   1.239798    -0.86   0.390    -3.495335    1.364585
        1952  |  -1.366281   1.407707    -0.97   0.332    -4.125336    1.392774
        1953  |   .0732289    1.30517     0.06   0.955    -2.484858    2.631316
        1954  |  -3.300936   1.542551    -2.14   0.032    -6.324281   -.2775907
        1955  |   -1.47357    2.13668    -0.69   0.490    -5.661386    2.714247
        1956  |  -2.285848   2.282303    -1.00   0.317     -6.75908    2.187384
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.575729   1.813892    -0.87   0.385    -5.130891    1.979434
        1959  |  -2.244541   1.964274    -1.14   0.253    -6.094448    1.605366
        1960  |  -3.142676   1.614531    -1.95   0.052    -6.307099    .0217477
        1961  |  -1.133503   1.477532    -0.77   0.443    -4.029413    1.762408
        1962  |  -.6560065   1.470785    -0.45   0.656    -3.538691    2.226678
        1963  |  -.7604361   1.480845    -0.51   0.608     -3.66284    2.141968
        1964  |  -1.699869   1.317154    -1.29   0.197    -4.281442    .8817049
        1965  |   -1.92869   1.337884    -1.44   0.149    -4.550894    .6935148
        1966  |  -1.656563   1.278364    -1.30   0.195    -4.162111    .8489853
        1967  |  -1.750876   1.267449    -1.38   0.167     -4.23503     .733278
        1968  |  -1.995103   1.214153    -1.64   0.100    -4.374799    .3845933
        1969  |  -1.655648    1.26065    -1.31   0.189    -4.126476    .8151801
        1970  |  -1.780629   1.244336    -1.43   0.152    -4.219483    .6582245
        1971  |  -.7753365   1.086454    -0.71   0.475    -2.904746    1.354073
        1972  |  -2.646448   1.289556    -2.05   0.040    -5.173931   -.1189646
        1973  |  -3.256765   1.403347    -2.32   0.020    -6.007275   -.5062551
        1974  |   -1.62475   1.331372    -1.22   0.222    -4.234191    .9846916
        1975  |  -1.450926   1.281962    -1.13   0.258    -3.963524    1.061673
        1976  |  -1.241469   1.279516    -0.97   0.332    -3.749273    1.266336
        1977  |  -1.500396   1.271198    -1.18   0.238    -3.991898     .991106
        1978  |  -.2056422   1.293529    -0.16   0.874    -2.740912    2.329628
        1979  |  -1.978659   1.290114    -1.53   0.125    -4.507237    .5499185
        1980  |  -1.574803   1.250169    -1.26   0.208     -4.02509    .8754838
        1981  |   -1.62723   1.286589    -1.26   0.206    -4.148898    .8944382
        1982  |  -1.102329   1.220336    -0.90   0.366    -3.494143    1.289485
        1983  |  -1.286565   1.263628    -1.02   0.309    -3.763231    1.190101
        1984  |  -.9618378   1.220375    -0.79   0.431    -3.353729    1.430053
        1985  |  -1.293225    1.22963    -1.05   0.293    -3.703255    1.116805
        1986  |  -1.821541   1.271167    -1.43   0.152    -4.312982    .6699008
        1987  |  -1.490218   1.251263    -1.19   0.234    -3.942648    .9622128
        1988  |  -.7321057   1.237902    -0.59   0.554    -3.158348    1.694137
        1989  |  -2.554411    1.30794    -1.95   0.051    -5.117926    .0091032
        1990  |  -2.130323   1.335292    -1.60   0.111    -4.747448    .4868012
        1991  |   1.074091   .9230029     1.16   0.245    -.7349612    2.883144
        1992  |   1.805188   .9662738     1.87   0.062     -.088674     3.69905
        1993  |   1.021223   1.011124     1.01   0.313    -.9605444     3.00299
        1994  |   1.281556    1.08854     1.18   0.239    -.8519437    3.415056
        1995  |   1.193112   1.024565     1.16   0.244    -.8149987    3.201223
        1996  |   1.045775   1.005622     1.04   0.298    -.9252084    3.016759
        1997  |   1.121291   .9843329     1.14   0.255    -.8079663    3.050548
        1998  |   1.976138   .9704989     2.04   0.042     .0739952    3.878281
        1999  |   1.940053   .9504137     2.04   0.041     .0772761    3.802829
        2000  |   1.247204    .996723     1.25   0.211    -.7063368    3.200745
        2001  |   .7828008   .9814102     0.80   0.425    -1.140728    2.706329
        2002  |   1.484996   1.038509     1.43   0.153    -.5504444    3.520436
        2003  |   .3774992   1.419177     0.27   0.790    -2.404037    3.159036
        2004  |   1.483811   1.188316     1.25   0.212    -.8452462    3.812869
        2005  |   .6215899   1.123662     0.55   0.580    -1.580748    2.823928
        2006  |  -.5490841   .8414422    -0.65   0.514     -2.19828    1.100112
        2007  |  -.1813443   .8105484    -0.22   0.823     -1.76999    1.407301
        2008  |  -.0864627   .8901817    -0.10   0.923    -1.831187    1.658261
        2009  |   .1956663   1.006619     0.19   0.846     -1.77727    2.168602
        2010  |  -.3256574   .9321083    -0.35   0.727    -2.152556    1.501241
        2011  |   .3020031   1.084122     0.28   0.781    -1.822837    2.426844
        2012  |  -.2891732    1.25452    -0.23   0.818    -2.747987    2.169641
        2013  |   .2495892   .7854959     0.32   0.751    -1.289954    1.789133
        2014  |   1.203653   .8387546     1.44   0.151     -.440276    2.847581
        2015  |   .4042721   .8261561     0.49   0.625    -1.214964    2.023508
        2016  |  -.5797432   .9311901    -0.62   0.534    -2.404842    1.245356
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.680987   1.237514    -1.36   0.174     -4.10647    .7444967
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |    2.02635   .2013383                      1.631734    2.420966
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.754332   .2772763                      2.261135    3.355104
          rho |   .6975171   .0424798                      .6084703    .7738393
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist cl
> aim_libdem rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_re
> scale_sq active_dyads post_iran_rev i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robus
> t)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1093.275  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1079.698  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4946  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1020.6985
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -981.08966
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -952.90726
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -932.02316
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -916.30705
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood =  -905.7783
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -899.92535
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood =  -903.3935

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -900.00016  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -847.41215  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.47962  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.20275  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.19007  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.19007  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -836.1863  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -836.1863  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(78)     =     365.09
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -836.1863              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |    .970233   .5677427     1.71   0.087    -.1425223    2.082988
Christian-~l  |   1.012662   .9948796     1.02   0.309    -.9372665     2.96259
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .9202473   .5638969     1.63   0.103    -.1849703    2.025465
Muslim-The~l  |   1.779728   .6644712     2.68   0.007     .4773886    3.082068
              |
claim_commu~t |   .5379454   .5137559     1.05   0.295    -.4689977    1.544889
 claim_libdem |  -.2792354   .5701624    -0.49   0.624    -1.396733    .8382623
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.711157   .8551626     3.17   0.002     1.035069    4.387245
  incomp_terr |  -.4986696   .4282655    -1.16   0.244    -1.338055    .3407154
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.064494   .0314098    -2.05   0.040     -.126056    -.002932
 vdem_rescale |  -.0292144   .0540936    -0.54   0.589    -.1352358     .076807
vdem_rescal~q |    .007951   .0078662     1.01   0.312    -.0074664    .0233684
 active_dyads |   .0727455   .1326186     0.55   0.583    -.1871822    .3326732
post_iran_rev |  -3.327424   1.419094    -2.34   0.019    -6.108796   -.5460517
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.109071   1.240515    -0.89   0.371    -3.540437    1.322294
        1952  |   -1.36936   1.391547    -0.98   0.325    -4.096741    1.358021
        1953  |   .0524818    1.32378     0.04   0.968    -2.542079    2.647042
        1954  |     -3.268   1.536848    -2.13   0.033    -6.280167    -.255833
        1955  |  -1.517806   2.113264    -0.72   0.473    -5.659726    2.624115
        1956  |   -2.32543   2.270454    -1.02   0.306    -6.775439    2.124578
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.696655   1.795194    -0.95   0.345    -5.215171    1.821861
        1959  |  -2.334998   1.951097    -1.20   0.231    -6.159077    1.489081
        1960  |   -3.24501   1.596468    -2.03   0.042    -6.374029   -.1159904
        1961  |  -1.186802   1.469473    -0.81   0.419    -4.066916    1.693312
        1962  |  -.6835084   1.466024    -0.47   0.641    -3.556862    2.189845
        1963  |  -.8279422   1.468338    -0.56   0.573    -3.705831    2.049947
        1964  |  -1.699501   1.312742    -1.29   0.195    -4.272428    .8734273
        1965  |   -1.91713    1.34446    -1.43   0.154    -4.552223     .717964
        1966  |  -1.686751   1.280493    -1.32   0.188    -4.196473    .8229696
        1967  |  -1.763759   1.264586    -1.39   0.163    -4.242301    .7147831
        1968  |  -2.010758   1.208626    -1.66   0.096    -4.379622    .3581064
        1969  |  -1.704243   1.262374    -1.35   0.177     -4.17845    .7699653
        1970  |  -1.840366   1.242875    -1.48   0.139    -4.276356    .5956236
        1971  |   -.888425   1.088689    -0.82   0.414    -3.022216    1.245366
        1972  |  -2.657677   1.292228    -2.06   0.040    -5.190397   -.1249579
        1973  |  -3.282409   1.417566    -2.32   0.021    -6.060787   -.5040303
        1974  |  -1.659119   1.336916    -1.24   0.215    -4.279425     .961188
        1975  |  -1.482789   1.284902    -1.15   0.248     -4.00115    1.035573
        1976  |  -1.266907   1.277179    -0.99   0.321    -3.770132    1.236318
        1977  |  -1.512857   1.267248    -1.19   0.233    -3.996617     .970903
        1978  |  -.2414484   1.288928    -0.19   0.851    -2.767701    2.284804
        1979  |  -1.959143   1.277628    -1.53   0.125    -4.463247    .5449618
        1980  |   1.740683   1.015441     1.71   0.086    -.2495451    3.730911
        1981  |    1.68402   1.008469     1.67   0.095    -.2925434    3.660583
        1982  |   2.196324   .9528718     2.30   0.021     .3287296    4.063918
        1983  |   2.023329   .9666912     2.09   0.036     .1286494    3.918009
        1984  |   2.265944   .9559373     2.37   0.018     .3923415    4.139547
        1985  |    1.97928   .9441805     2.10   0.036     .1287199    3.829839
        1986  |    1.46084   .9632683     1.52   0.129    -.4271316    3.348811
        1987  |   1.804843   .9164746     1.97   0.049     .0085858      3.6011
        1988  |   2.550937   .9305501     2.74   0.006     .7270924    4.374782
        1989  |   .8955505   .9670928     0.93   0.354    -.9999164    2.791017
        1990  |   1.207635   .9617802     1.26   0.209    -.6774196    3.092689
        1991  |    .962414   .9253778     1.04   0.298    -.8512932    2.776121
        1992  |   1.738181   .9300686     1.87   0.062    -.0847199    3.561082
        1993  |   1.011485   .9871737     1.02   0.306    -.9233395     2.94631
        1994  |   1.257308   1.062086     1.18   0.236    -.8243412    3.338958
        1995  |    1.16065   1.013901     1.14   0.252      -.82656     3.14786
        1996  |    1.02799    1.00269     1.03   0.305    -.9372458    2.993226
        1997  |   1.046857   .9374429     1.12   0.264    -.7904971    2.884211
        1998  |   1.912937   .9279518     2.06   0.039     .0941852     3.73169
        1999  |    1.85799   .9168597     2.03   0.043     .0609784    3.655002
        2000  |   1.167084   .9635577     1.21   0.226    -.7214544    3.055622
        2001  |   .7064944   .9552105     0.74   0.460    -1.165684    2.578673
        2002  |   1.401867   1.027842     1.36   0.173    -.6126663    3.416401
        2003  |   .3113393   1.419811     0.22   0.826     -2.47144    3.094119
        2004  |   1.418885    1.19019     1.19   0.233    -.9138446    3.751615
        2005  |   .6532301   1.110095     0.59   0.556    -1.522516    2.828976
        2006  |   -.549452   .8445236    -0.65   0.515    -2.204688    1.105784
        2007  |  -.2040813   .8134318    -0.25   0.802    -1.798378    1.390216
        2008  |  -.0898706   .8846157    -0.10   0.919    -1.823685    1.643944
        2009  |   .2043402    .985539     0.21   0.836    -1.727281    2.135961
        2010  |  -.3561138   .9085503    -0.39   0.695     -2.13684    1.424612
        2011  |   .2490584   1.058687     0.24   0.814    -1.825929    2.324046
        2012  |  -.2854946   1.228227    -0.23   0.816    -2.692776    2.121786
        2013  |   .2005651   .7697606     0.26   0.794    -1.308138    1.709268
        2014  |   1.117812   .8068257     1.39   0.166    -.4635375    2.699161
        2015  |   .3812407    .821798     0.46   0.643    -1.229454    1.991935
        2016  |  -.5007055   .9229969    -0.54   0.587    -2.309746    1.308335
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.431389   1.221156    -1.17   0.241     -3.82481    .9620333
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.973408   .1934734                      1.594207    2.352609
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.682379   .2594844                      2.219104     3.24237
          rho |   .6862317   .0416582                      .5994946    .7616526
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_iran_rev##(i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type c.
> claim_communist c.claim_libdem) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP
>  vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vc
> e(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 0.post_iran_rev#2.chr_claim_type identifies no observations in the sample
note: 1.post_iran_rev#2.chr_claim_type omitted because of collinearity
note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1085.5056  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1070.4835  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1070.2119  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1070.2115  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1070.2115  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1070.2115
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1012.9296
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -973.93663
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -946.12516
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -925.51052
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -910.16514
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -899.76707
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -894.12818
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -896.76763

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -894.20167  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -842.24732  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.74071  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.44865  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.43597  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.43597  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.43162  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.43161  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(83)     =     379.79
Log pseudolikelihood  = -831.43161              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_iran~v |  -4.339792   1.652516    -2.63   0.009    -7.578664   -1.100921
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .1807802   .9117928     0.20   0.843    -1.606301    1.967861
Christian-~l  |   1.357129   1.065762     1.27   0.203    -.7317262    3.445983
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .5031334   .7929593     0.63   0.526    -1.051038    2.057305
Muslim-The~l  |   .0029902    1.50936     0.00   0.998    -2.955301    2.961281
              |
claim_commu~t |   .1743137   .8088107     0.22   0.829    -1.410926    1.759554
 claim_libdem |   .4563087   .9342368     0.49   0.625    -1.374762    2.287379
              |
post_iran_rev#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           0 #|
Christian-~l  |          0  (empty)
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |   1.253253   1.146244     1.09   0.274    -.9933436     3.49985
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |          0  (omitted)
              |
post_iran_rev#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .7594696   .9767309     0.78   0.437    -1.154888    2.673827
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |   2.269032   1.708912     1.33   0.184    -1.080375    5.618438
              |
post_iran_rev#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |    .615726   1.024152     0.60   0.548    -1.391576    2.623028
              |
post_iran_rev#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |   -.929726   .9704619    -0.96   0.338    -2.831796    .9723445
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.659442   .8044975     3.31   0.001     1.082656    4.236228
  incomp_terr |  -.5877565   .4269325    -1.38   0.169    -1.424529    .2490158
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0514879   .0287837    -1.79   0.074     -.107903    .0049272
 vdem_rescale |  -.0415711   .0564768    -0.74   0.462    -.1522636    .0691214
vdem_rescal~q |   .0071749   .0075748     0.95   0.344    -.0076714    .0220213
 active_dyads |   .0553938   .1377375     0.40   0.688    -.2145667    .3253543
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.166824   1.265581    -0.92   0.357    -3.647318     1.31367
        1952  |   -1.41154   1.406562    -1.00   0.316    -4.168352    1.345271
        1953  |   .1839386    1.37907     0.13   0.894    -2.518989    2.886866
        1954  |  -3.046128   1.531863    -1.99   0.047    -6.048525   -.0437309
        1955  |   -1.33015    2.07093    -0.64   0.521    -5.389099    2.728799
        1956  |  -2.206069   2.274637    -0.97   0.332    -6.664274    2.252137
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.503419   1.838777    -0.82   0.414    -5.107355    2.100518
        1959  |  -2.254782   1.980876    -1.14   0.255    -6.137228    1.627665
        1960  |  -3.242319   1.618038    -2.00   0.045    -6.413616   -.0710227
        1961  |  -1.186469   1.522158    -0.78   0.436    -4.169844    1.796905
        1962  |  -.6949729   1.512185    -0.46   0.646    -3.658801    2.268855
        1963  |  -.8684891    1.50822    -0.58   0.565    -3.824545    2.087567
        1964  |  -1.678076   1.436385    -1.17   0.243     -4.49334    1.137187
        1965  |  -1.866594   1.399546    -1.33   0.182    -4.609655    .8764666
        1966  |  -1.657155   1.345152    -1.23   0.218    -4.293605    .9792942
        1967  |  -1.726354    1.36252    -1.27   0.205    -4.396843    .9441352
        1968  |  -1.994494    1.34132    -1.49   0.137    -4.623434    .6344457
        1969  |  -1.686037   1.328767    -1.27   0.204    -4.290372    .9182981
        1970  |  -1.833081    1.36327    -1.34   0.179    -4.505042    .8388795
        1971  |  -.8153617   1.144082    -0.71   0.476    -3.057722    1.426998
        1972  |  -2.583311   1.329178    -1.94   0.052    -5.188453    .0218311
        1973  |  -3.294746   1.461555    -2.25   0.024     -6.15934    -.430151
        1974  |  -1.620059   1.319601    -1.23   0.220    -4.206428    .9663108
        1975  |   -1.40461   1.285428    -1.09   0.275    -3.924003    1.114783
        1976  |  -1.112042    1.29724    -0.86   0.391    -3.654585    1.430501
        1977  |  -1.425716   1.292711    -1.10   0.270    -3.959384    1.107951
        1978  |  -.1560841   1.300188    -0.12   0.904    -2.704406    2.392238
        1979  |  -1.787106   1.302417    -1.37   0.170    -4.339796    .7655842
        1980  |   1.855022   1.027367     1.81   0.071    -.1585809    3.868625
        1981  |   1.735996   1.007068     1.72   0.085    -.2378214    3.709814
        1982  |   2.271293   .9675323     2.35   0.019     .3749649    4.167622
        1983  |   2.098157    .971173     2.16   0.031     .1946931    4.001621
        1984  |   2.329576   .9510685     2.45   0.014     .4655158    4.193636
        1985  |   2.020099   .9563065     2.11   0.035     .1457726    3.894425
        1986  |   1.530638   .9720942     1.57   0.115    -.3746316    3.435908
        1987  |   1.897397    .922807     2.06   0.040     .0887285    3.706065
        1988  |    2.65826   .9511043     2.79   0.005     .7941303     4.52239
        1989  |   .9896741    .963144     1.03   0.304    -.8980536    2.877402
        1990  |   1.314192   .9726394     1.35   0.177    -.5921459    3.220531
        1991  |   1.057148   .9327621     1.13   0.257    -.7710324    2.885328
        1992  |    1.80962   .9293854     1.95   0.052    -.0119415    3.631182
        1993  |    1.08799   .9799689     1.11   0.267    -.8327141    3.008693
        1994  |    1.32583    1.05794     1.25   0.210    -.7476941    3.399354
        1995  |   1.239442   1.010885     1.23   0.220    -.7418551    3.220739
        1996  |   1.099466   1.003908     1.10   0.273    -.8681575     3.06709
        1997  |   1.134571   .9347123     1.21   0.225     -.697431    2.966574
        1998  |   2.002339   .9317898     2.15   0.032     .1760649    3.828614
        1999  |   1.926074   .9151841     2.10   0.035     .1323458    3.719802
        2000  |   1.240449   .9656038     1.28   0.199    -.6520991    3.132998
        2001  |   .7768855   .9553941     0.81   0.416    -1.095652    2.649423
        2002  |   1.468745   1.027739     1.43   0.153    -.5455868    3.483077
        2003  |   .3726519   1.422141     0.26   0.793    -2.414693    3.159996
        2004  |   1.453149   1.192277     1.22   0.223    -.8836706    3.789969
        2005  |   .6808591   1.109972     0.61   0.540    -1.494646    2.856364
        2006  |  -.5055273   .8453726    -0.60   0.550    -2.162427    1.151373
        2007  |  -.1637485   .8156917    -0.20   0.841    -1.762475    1.434978
        2008  |  -.0454755    .881167    -0.05   0.959    -1.772531     1.68158
        2009  |    .235921   .9897874     0.24   0.812    -1.704027    2.175869
        2010  |  -.3275504     .90952    -0.36   0.719    -2.110177    1.455076
        2011  |   .2935526   1.060875     0.28   0.782    -1.785723    2.372829
        2012  |  -.2759685   1.232406    -0.22   0.823    -2.691439    2.139502
        2013  |   .2085034    .769339     0.27   0.786    -1.299373     1.71638
        2014  |   1.125857   .8071866     1.39   0.163    -.4561996    2.707914
        2015  |   .3946202   .8218271     0.48   0.631    -1.216131    2.005372
        2016  |  -.4961475   .9243183    -0.54   0.591    -2.307778    1.315483
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.119183   1.273425    -0.88   0.379    -3.615049    1.376683
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.975927   .2012933                      1.581399    2.370454
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.685759   .2703126                      2.204939     3.27143
          rho |   .6867738   .0433013                      .5964155    .7648771
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist cl
> aim_libdem rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_re
> scale_sq active_dyads post_2001 i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1093.275  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1079.698  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4946  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1079.4943
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1020.6985
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -981.08966
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -952.90726
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -932.02316
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -916.30705
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood =  -905.7783
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -899.92535
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood =  -903.3935

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -900.00016  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -847.41215  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.47962  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.20275  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.19007  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -836.19007  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -836.1863  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -836.1863  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(78)     =     365.09
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -836.1863              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |    .970233   .5677427     1.71   0.087    -.1425223    2.082988
Christian-~l  |   1.012662   .9948796     1.02   0.309    -.9372665     2.96259
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .9202473   .5638969     1.63   0.103    -.1849703    2.025465
Muslim-The~l  |   1.779728   .6644712     2.68   0.007     .4773886    3.082068
              |
claim_commu~t |   .5379454   .5137559     1.05   0.295    -.4689977    1.544889
 claim_libdem |  -.2792354   .5701624    -0.49   0.624    -1.396733    .8382623
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.711157   .8551626     3.17   0.002     1.035069    4.387245
  incomp_terr |  -.4986696   .4282655    -1.16   0.244    -1.338055    .3407154
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.064494   .0314098    -2.05   0.040     -.126056    -.002932
 vdem_rescale |  -.0292144   .0540936    -0.54   0.589    -.1352358     .076807
vdem_rescal~q |    .007951   .0078662     1.01   0.312    -.0074664    .0233684
 active_dyads |   .0727455   .1326186     0.55   0.583    -.1871822    .3326732
    post_2001 |  -3.327424   1.419094    -2.34   0.019    -6.108796   -.5460517
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.109071   1.240515    -0.89   0.371    -3.540437    1.322294
        1952  |   -1.36936   1.391547    -0.98   0.325    -4.096741    1.358021
        1953  |   .0524818    1.32378     0.04   0.968    -2.542079    2.647042
        1954  |     -3.268   1.536848    -2.13   0.033    -6.280167    -.255833
        1955  |  -1.517806   2.113264    -0.72   0.473    -5.659726    2.624115
        1956  |   -2.32543   2.270454    -1.02   0.306    -6.775439    2.124578
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.696655   1.795194    -0.95   0.345    -5.215171    1.821861
        1959  |  -2.334998   1.951097    -1.20   0.231    -6.159077    1.489081
        1960  |   -3.24501   1.596468    -2.03   0.042    -6.374029   -.1159904
        1961  |  -1.186802   1.469473    -0.81   0.419    -4.066916    1.693312
        1962  |  -.6835084   1.466024    -0.47   0.641    -3.556862    2.189845
        1963  |  -.8279422   1.468338    -0.56   0.573    -3.705831    2.049947
        1964  |  -1.699501   1.312742    -1.29   0.195    -4.272428    .8734273
        1965  |   -1.91713    1.34446    -1.43   0.154    -4.552223     .717964
        1966  |  -1.686751   1.280493    -1.32   0.188    -4.196473    .8229696
        1967  |  -1.763759   1.264586    -1.39   0.163    -4.242301    .7147831
        1968  |  -2.010758   1.208626    -1.66   0.096    -4.379622    .3581064
        1969  |  -1.704243   1.262374    -1.35   0.177     -4.17845    .7699653
        1970  |  -1.840366   1.242875    -1.48   0.139    -4.276356    .5956236
        1971  |   -.888425   1.088689    -0.82   0.414    -3.022216    1.245366
        1972  |  -2.657677   1.292228    -2.06   0.040    -5.190397   -.1249579
        1973  |  -3.282409   1.417566    -2.32   0.021    -6.060787   -.5040303
        1974  |  -1.659119   1.336916    -1.24   0.215    -4.279425     .961188
        1975  |  -1.482789   1.284902    -1.15   0.248     -4.00115    1.035573
        1976  |  -1.266907   1.277179    -0.99   0.321    -3.770132    1.236318
        1977  |  -1.512857   1.267248    -1.19   0.233    -3.996617     .970903
        1978  |  -.2414484   1.288928    -0.19   0.851    -2.767701    2.284804
        1979  |  -1.959143   1.277628    -1.53   0.125    -4.463247    .5449618
        1980  |  -1.586741   1.245305    -1.27   0.203    -4.027493    .8540114
        1981  |  -1.643404    1.28113    -1.28   0.200    -4.154372    .8675639
        1982  |    -1.1311   1.220079    -0.93   0.354    -3.522411    1.260211
        1983  |  -1.304094   1.253464    -1.04   0.298     -3.76084    1.152651
        1984  |   -1.06148   1.218244    -0.87   0.384    -3.449195    1.326235
        1985  |  -1.348144   1.237111    -1.09   0.276    -3.772837    1.076548
        1986  |  -1.866584    1.26068    -1.48   0.139    -4.337472    .6043032
        1987  |  -1.522581   1.242134    -1.23   0.220    -3.957119    .9119567
        1988  |  -.7764869   1.238633    -0.63   0.531    -3.204163    1.651189
        1989  |  -2.431873   1.269483    -1.92   0.055    -4.920015    .0562681
        1990  |  -2.119789   1.293931    -1.64   0.101    -4.655847    .4162691
        1991  |   -2.36501   1.284237    -1.84   0.066    -4.882068    .1520486
        1992  |  -1.589243   1.299755    -1.22   0.221    -4.136716    .9582306
        1993  |  -2.315939   1.299556    -1.78   0.075    -4.863022    .2311446
        1994  |  -2.070116   1.367714    -1.51   0.130    -4.750786    .6105545
        1995  |  -2.166774   1.343846    -1.61   0.107    -4.800664    .4671156
        1996  |  -2.299434   1.317825    -1.74   0.081    -4.882323    .2834556
        1997  |  -2.280567   1.283046    -1.78   0.075     -4.79529    .2341566
        1998  |  -1.414487    1.28285    -1.10   0.270    -3.928827    1.099854
        1999  |  -1.469434    1.30359    -1.13   0.260    -4.024423    1.085556
        2000  |   -2.16034   1.304103    -1.66   0.098    -4.716334    .3956545
        2001  |   -2.62093   1.319759    -1.99   0.047    -5.207611   -.0342484
        2002  |   1.401867   1.027842     1.36   0.173    -.6126663    3.416401
        2003  |   .3113393   1.419811     0.22   0.826     -2.47144    3.094119
        2004  |   1.418885    1.19019     1.19   0.233    -.9138446    3.751615
        2005  |   .6532301   1.110095     0.59   0.556    -1.522516    2.828976
        2006  |   -.549452   .8445236    -0.65   0.515    -2.204688    1.105784
        2007  |  -.2040813   .8134318    -0.25   0.802    -1.798378    1.390216
        2008  |  -.0898706   .8846157    -0.10   0.919    -1.823685    1.643944
        2009  |   .2043402    .985539     0.21   0.836    -1.727281    2.135961
        2010  |  -.3561138   .9085503    -0.39   0.695     -2.13684    1.424612
        2011  |   .2490584   1.058687     0.24   0.814    -1.825929    2.324046
        2012  |  -.2854946   1.228227    -0.23   0.816    -2.692776    2.121786
        2013  |   .2005651   .7697606     0.26   0.794    -1.308138    1.709268
        2014  |   1.117812   .8068257     1.39   0.166    -.4635375    2.699161
        2015  |   .3812407    .821798     0.46   0.643    -1.229454    1.991935
        2016  |  -.5007055   .9229969    -0.54   0.587    -2.309746    1.308335
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.431389   1.221156    -1.17   0.241     -3.82481    .9620333
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.973408   .1934734                      1.594207    2.352609
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.682379   .2594844                      2.219104     3.24237
          rho |   .6862317   .0416582                      .5994946    .7616526
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_2001##(i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type c.clai
> m_communist c.claim_libdem) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr side_a_lnGDP vde
> m_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(ro
> bust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1237.379  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1084.5896  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1069.6845  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1069.3977  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1069.3976  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1069.3976  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1069.3976
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1012.2378
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -973.61278
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -946.01332
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -925.43865
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -909.76307
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -899.27505
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood =  -893.7842
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood =  -896.3363

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -893.27805  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -840.66178  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.80117  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.40945  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.39314  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.39301  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.39057  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -829.39057  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,470
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        489

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(84)     =     433.74
Log pseudolikelihood  = -829.39057              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 489 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  1.post_2001 |  -2.204403    1.58253    -1.39   0.164    -5.306105    .8972983
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.179783   .5903847     2.00   0.046     .0226505    2.336916
Christian-~l  |   .7961408   1.056508     0.75   0.451    -1.274578    2.866859
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .9535483   .5944287     1.60   0.109    -.2115105    2.118607
Muslim-The~l  |   2.026659   .7265484     2.79   0.005     .6026501    3.450667
              |
claim_commu~t |   .5635255   .5432728     1.04   0.300    -.5012696    1.628321
 claim_libdem |   .0639078   .6346701     0.10   0.920    -1.180023    1.307838
              |
    post_2001#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |  -1.807955   1.368429    -1.32   0.186    -4.490027    .8741157
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |   .1918866   1.152724     0.17   0.868    -2.067411    2.451184
              |
    post_2001#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.5085057   1.274866    -0.40   0.690    -3.007198    1.990186
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -1.325545   1.010593    -1.31   0.190    -3.306271    .6551806
              |
    post_2001#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |   .1312066   1.231113     0.11   0.915    -2.281731    2.544144
              |
    post_2001#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |  -1.616365   1.250871    -1.29   0.196    -4.068027    .8352965
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.804965   .8590078     3.27   0.001      1.12134    4.488589
  incomp_terr |  -.5006121   .4347927    -1.15   0.250     -1.35279     .351566
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.065603    .033206    -1.98   0.048    -.1306856   -.0005205
 vdem_rescale |  -.0254462   .0595351    -0.43   0.669    -.1421328    .0912403
vdem_rescal~q |   .0080767   .0084253     0.96   0.338    -.0084366    .0245899
 active_dyads |   .0941636   .1330435     0.71   0.479     -.166597    .3549241
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.100667   1.262619    -0.87   0.383    -3.575354     1.37402
        1952  |  -1.404161   1.420263    -0.99   0.323    -4.187825    1.379503
        1953  |   .0611028   1.353368     0.05   0.964     -2.59145    2.713656
        1954  |  -3.333983   1.559148    -2.14   0.032    -6.389856   -.2781098
        1955  |  -1.529763   2.151614    -0.71   0.477    -5.746848    2.687323
        1956  |  -2.341099   2.310815    -1.01   0.311    -6.870212    2.188015
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.69248   1.831093    -0.92   0.355    -5.281356    1.896396
        1959  |  -2.331713   1.990423    -1.17   0.241     -6.23287    1.569445
        1960  |  -3.254374   1.626136    -2.00   0.045    -6.441542   -.0672056
        1961  |  -1.188815   1.490822    -0.80   0.425    -4.110772    1.733143
        1962  |  -.6883072   1.485013    -0.46   0.643    -3.598879    2.222265
        1963  |  -.8132648   1.490069    -0.55   0.585    -3.733746    2.107216
        1964  |   -1.71016   1.328971    -1.29   0.198    -4.314897    .8945756
        1965  |  -1.936848   1.362134    -1.42   0.155    -4.606582     .732886
        1966  |  -1.692458   1.298927    -1.30   0.193    -4.238309     .853393
        1967  |  -1.776401   1.285522    -1.38   0.167    -4.295978    .7431757
        1968  |  -2.025307    1.23199    -1.64   0.100    -4.439964    .3893497
        1969  |  -1.714978   1.285623    -1.33   0.182    -4.234752    .8047972
        1970  |  -1.854351   1.268551    -1.46   0.144    -4.340666     .631964
        1971  |  -.8652832   1.108076    -0.78   0.435    -3.037073    1.306507
        1972  |   -2.67591   1.317701    -2.03   0.042    -5.258557   -.0932626
        1973  |  -3.308291   1.447171    -2.29   0.022    -6.144694   -.4718875
        1974  |  -1.658395    1.36181    -1.22   0.223    -4.327493    1.010703
        1975  |  -1.485515   1.311411    -1.13   0.257    -4.055832    1.084803
        1976  |  -1.274199   1.304156    -0.98   0.329    -3.830298      1.2819
        1977  |  -1.520894    1.29374    -1.18   0.240    -4.056578     1.01479
        1978  |  -.2296163   1.316542    -0.17   0.862    -2.809991    2.350759
        1979  |  -1.964392   1.303203    -1.51   0.132    -4.518622    .5898387
        1980  |  -1.586636   1.272776    -1.25   0.213    -4.081232    .9079596
        1981  |  -1.656398   1.310731    -1.26   0.206    -4.225383    .9125869
        1982  |  -1.141739   1.250805    -0.91   0.361    -3.593273    1.309794
        1983  |  -1.327185   1.287117    -1.03   0.302    -3.849888    1.195519
        1984  |  -1.066107   1.257184    -0.85   0.396    -3.530143    1.397928
        1985  |  -1.363715   1.270466    -1.07   0.283    -3.853782    1.126352
        1986  |  -1.881497   1.297959    -1.45   0.147     -4.42545    .6624551
        1987  |  -1.539598   1.275887    -1.21   0.228     -4.04029    .9610945
        1988  |  -.7714662   1.271097    -0.61   0.544    -3.262771    1.719839
        1989  |  -2.460027   1.306964    -1.88   0.060    -5.021628    .1015754
        1990  |  -2.122289   1.331697    -1.59   0.111    -4.732367    .4877901
        1991  |  -2.431828   1.329435    -1.83   0.067    -5.037473    .1738173
        1992  |  -1.638328   1.317203    -1.24   0.214    -4.219998    .9433425
        1993  |  -2.394815   1.319683    -1.81   0.070    -4.981347    .1917171
        1994  |  -2.087335     1.3852    -1.51   0.132    -4.802276    .6276069
        1995  |  -2.155693   1.374394    -1.57   0.117    -4.849456    .5380697
        1996  |  -2.249701   1.337916    -1.68   0.093    -4.871967    .3725654
        1997  |  -2.243057   1.297575    -1.73   0.084    -4.786258    .3001442
        1998  |  -1.342101   1.302812    -1.03   0.303    -3.895565    1.211364
        1999  |  -1.413129    1.32274    -1.07   0.285    -4.005652    1.179395
        2000  |  -2.105596   1.331251    -1.58   0.114    -4.714801    .5036086
        2001  |  -2.646348   1.349541    -1.96   0.050    -5.291401   -.0012955
        2002  |   1.469373   1.040215     1.41   0.158    -.5694107    3.508158
        2003  |   .2161245   1.448421     0.15   0.881    -2.622728    3.054977
        2004  |   1.365166   1.168524     1.17   0.243    -.9250985    3.655431
        2005  |   .4346953   1.207315     0.36   0.719    -1.931599    2.800989
        2006  |  -.8285406    .864341    -0.96   0.338    -2.522618    .8655366
        2007  |  -.3882952   .8112075    -0.48   0.632    -1.978233    1.201642
        2008  |  -.2855076   .8998319    -0.32   0.751    -2.049146     1.47813
        2009  |   .0411495   1.006639     0.04   0.967    -1.931827    2.014126
        2010  |  -.4439977   .9269416    -0.48   0.632     -2.26077    1.372774
        2011  |    .192488   1.079688     0.18   0.859    -1.923661    2.308637
        2012  |  -.2830758   1.272001    -0.22   0.824    -2.776151        2.21
        2013  |   .1411249   .7892917     0.18   0.858    -1.405858    1.688108
        2014  |   1.200976   .8498841     1.41   0.158    -.4647667    2.866718
        2015  |    .424422   .8468951     0.50   0.616    -1.235462    2.084306
        2016  |  -.5701489   .9629999    -0.59   0.554    -2.457594    1.317296
        2017  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.644669   1.253962    -1.31   0.190     -4.10239    .8130524
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   2.042442   .2030434                      1.644485      2.4404
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.776583   .2818834                      2.275597    3.387865
          rho |   .7009016   .0425657                      .6115036    .7772224
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. **********************************

. 
. * SET DATA AS SURVIVAL-TIME DATA *

. 
. **********************************

. 
. 
. 
. stset year1 if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, failure(ep_end==1) id(dyad_id_rev) origi
> n(time start_year_1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyad_id_rev
     failure event:  ep_end == 1
obs. time interval:  (year1[_n-1], year1]
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time start_year_1
            if exp:  obsolete_ucdp_data==0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2610  total observations
         34  ignored at outset because of -if <exp>-
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2576  observations remaining, representing
        507  subjects
        433  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
   3381.196  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =        70

. 
. 
. 
. **********************************************************************

. 
. * Table A2-D. “Risk” of Armed Conflict Termination – Dyadic, 1950-2017, NSA Da
> ta *

. 
. **********************************************************************

. 
. 
. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_
> dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          427             Number of obs    =       2,217
No. of failures      =          356
Time at risk         =  2827.296997
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =      118.48
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1514.8781             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 427 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.3734308   .1285429    -2.91   0.004    -.6253704   -.1214913
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0796782   .1229131    -0.65   0.517    -.3205835     .161227
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1623249   .2627084    -0.62   0.537     -.677224    .3525741
  incomp_terr |  -.0106211   .1304713    -0.08   0.935    -.2663401     .245098
intensity_l~l |  -.3367501   .1691312    -1.99   0.046    -.6682412    -.005259
rebstrength~a |   .3480881   .0784076     4.44   0.000     .1944121    .5017641
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0012709   .0106641     0.12   0.905    -.0196303    .0221722
 vdem_rescale |  -.0103727   .0165574    -0.63   0.531    -.0428246    .0220791
vdem_rescal~q |   .0003681   .0030838     0.12   0.905     -.005676    .0064122
 active_dyads |  -.7866799   .1127004    -6.98   0.000    -1.007569   -.5657912
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_
> dyads post_cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          427             Number of obs    =       2,217
No. of failures      =          356
Time at risk         =  2827.296997
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =      132.66
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1509.6329             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 427 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.3494135   .1277243    -2.74   0.006    -.5997485   -.0990785
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0731261   .1200992    -0.61   0.543    -.3085163     .162264
rebel_ext_m~t |   -.251058   .2781762    -0.90   0.367    -.7962733    .2941573
  incomp_terr |   .0374451   .1278016     0.29   0.770    -.2130415    .2879317
intensity_l~l |  -.3093253   .1699035    -1.82   0.069    -.6423301    .0236794
rebstrength~a |   .3513953    .079563     4.42   0.000     .1954546    .5073359
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0046021   .0107811    -0.43   0.669    -.0257327    .0165285
 vdem_rescale |  -.0163444   .0166739    -0.98   0.327    -.0490247     .016336
vdem_rescal~q |   .0021889   .0031677     0.69   0.490    -.0040197    .0083974
 active_dyads |  -.8063163    .110788    -7.28   0.000    -1.023457   -.5891758
post_cold_war |   .3977105   .1232492     3.23   0.001     .1561465    .6392745
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_su
> pport incomp_terr intensity_level rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vd
> em_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          427             Number of obs    =       2,217
No. of failures      =          356
Time at risk         =  2827.296997
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =      138.67
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1506.2421             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 427 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .2971226    .229016     1.30   0.194    -.1517405    .7459857
incomp_ideo~l |   -.270745   .1938095    -1.40   0.162    -.6506046    .1091146
incomp_rel_~f |  -.3480563   .1690111    -2.06   0.039    -.6793119   -.0168007
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |  -.1924899   .2456255    -0.78   0.433     -.673907    .2889271
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .5598021   .2339272     2.39   0.017     .1013132    1.018291
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3103306   .2872508    -1.08   0.280    -.8733318    .2526705
  incomp_terr |   .0248536   .1308508     0.19   0.849    -.2316093    .2813164
intensity_l~l |  -.3220771   .1712968    -1.88   0.060    -.6578128    .0136585
rebstrength~a |   .3705903   .0794997     4.66   0.000     .2147737     .526407
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0059693   .0107664    -0.55   0.579    -.0270711    .0151324
 vdem_rescale |  -.0154393    .016777    -0.92   0.357    -.0483217    .0174431
vdem_rescal~q |   .0026674   .0032368     0.82   0.410    -.0036767    .0090115
 active_dyads |  -.8170315   .1114155    -7.33   0.000    -1.035402    -.598661
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_
> dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          427             Number of obs    =       2,217
No. of failures      =          356
Time at risk         =  2827.296997
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      118.65
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1514.7494             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 427 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.3515031   .1353147    -2.60   0.009    -.6167151   -.0862912
 Theological  |  -.4448166   .2683195    -1.66   0.097    -.9707131      .08108
        Both  |  -.4246793   .2016176    -2.11   0.035    -.8198425   -.0295161
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0693177   .1235139    -0.56   0.575    -.3114006    .1727651
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1757349   .2655886    -0.66   0.508     -.696279    .3448093
  incomp_terr |  -.0191908   .1310542    -0.15   0.884    -.2760524    .2376708
intensity_l~l |  -.3351561   .1692943    -1.98   0.048    -.6669667   -.0033454
rebstrength~a |   .3465871   .0782762     4.43   0.000     .1931685    .5000057
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0020661   .0107963     0.19   0.848    -.0190944    .0232265
 vdem_rescale |  -.0112798   .0168596    -0.67   0.503     -.044324    .0217645
vdem_rescal~q |   .0002222   .0031987     0.07   0.945    -.0060472    .0064916
 active_dyads |  -.7822207   .1138652    -6.87   0.000    -1.005392   -.5590491
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_
> dyads post_cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          427             Number of obs    =       2,217
No. of failures      =          356
Time at risk         =  2827.296997
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =      136.15
Log pseudolikelihood =    -1507.915             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 427 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.2549042   .1370505    -1.86   0.063    -.5235182    .0137099
 Theological  |  -.6569637   .2683769    -2.45   0.014    -1.182973   -.1309546
        Both  |  -.4961956   .2159053    -2.30   0.022    -.9193623    -.073029
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0314698   .1219437    -0.26   0.796    -.2704752    .2075355
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3298231   .2922128    -1.13   0.259    -.9025497    .2429034
  incomp_terr |   .0119591   .1284704     0.09   0.926    -.2398383    .2637565
intensity_l~l |  -.2955413   .1702737    -1.74   0.083    -.6292716     .038189
rebstrength~a |   .3454039   .0797081     4.33   0.000     .1891789    .5016289
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0029658   .0109488    -0.27   0.786     -.024425    .0184935
 vdem_rescale |  -.0219755   .0172208    -1.28   0.202    -.0557277    .0117766
vdem_rescal~q |   .0018883   .0032808     0.58   0.565    -.0045418    .0083185
 active_dyads |  -.7919367   .1119468    -7.07   0.000    -1.011348   -.5725249
post_cold_war |   .4873617   .1313612     3.71   0.000     .2298985    .7448249
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_supp
> ort incomp_terr intensity_level rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem
> _rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          427             Number of obs    =       2,217
No. of failures      =          356
Time at risk         =  2827.296997
                                                Wald chi2(17)    =      154.61
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1498.1221             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 427 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .2430419   .2311444     1.05   0.293    -.2099928    .6960767
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.3388424   .1997364    -1.70   0.090    -.7303185    .0526337
 Theological  |   .1624901    .776066     0.21   0.834    -1.358571    1.683552
        Both  |   .2337872   .2907598     0.80   0.421    -.3360915    .8036659
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.3462525   .1693929    -2.04   0.041    -.6782564   -.0142485
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |   .1673981   .2534298     0.66   0.509    -.3293152    .6641114
           1 #|
 Theological  |  -.9013426   .8181474    -1.10   0.271    -2.504882    .7021968
      1#Both  |  -1.218545   .4610129    -2.64   0.008    -2.122114   -.3149764
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .6871191   .2388059     2.88   0.004     .2190682     1.15517
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.4631041   .3251017    -1.42   0.154    -1.100292    .1740835
  incomp_terr |   .0067665    .126578     0.05   0.957    -.2413218    .2548548
intensity_l~l |  -.3544067   .1764637    -2.01   0.045    -.7002693   -.0085441
rebstrength~a |   .3691908    .080042     4.61   0.000     .2123114    .5260702
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0040196   .0108253    -0.37   0.710    -.0252367    .0171976
 vdem_rescale |  -.0205477   .0174815    -1.18   0.240    -.0548109    .0137154
vdem_rescal~q |   .0022933   .0033045     0.69   0.488    -.0041835    .0087701
 active_dyads |  -.8064316   .1103681    -7.31   0.000    -1.022749   -.5901142
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. ***********************************************************************

. 
. * Table A3-D. “Risk” of Armed Conflict Termination – Monadic, 1950-2017, NSA D
> ata *

. 
. ***********************************************************************

. 
. 
. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, noh
> r efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          427             Number of obs    =       2,217
No. of failures      =          356
Time at risk         =  2827.296997
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =      111.61
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1510.7113             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 427 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.5027481   .1290675    -3.90   0.000    -.7557157   -.2497805
    rel_aff01 |   .2455546   .1662436     1.48   0.140     -.080277    .5713861
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1620952    .252302    -0.64   0.521    -.6565981    .3324078
  incomp_terr |  -.2474811   .1412343    -1.75   0.080    -.5242952    .0293331
intensity_l~l |  -.3279706   .1687097    -1.94   0.052    -.6586355    .0026943
rebstrength~a |   .3380153   .0790511     4.28   0.000      .183078    .4929527
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0044034   .0106526     0.41   0.679    -.0164753    .0252822
 vdem_rescale |  -.0214949   .0164467    -1.31   0.191    -.0537298    .0107401
vdem_rescal~q |   -.000749   .0030076    -0.25   0.803    -.0066437    .0051457
 active_dyads |  -.7720088   .1106019    -6.98   0.000    -.9887845   -.5552331
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post
> _cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          427             Number of obs    =       2,217
No. of failures      =          356
Time at risk         =  2827.296997
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =      128.26
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1504.2812             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 427 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.5250074   .1259854    -4.17   0.000    -.7719344   -.2780805
    rel_aff01 |   .2093573   .1648617     1.27   0.204    -.1137657    .5324803
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2493557   .2655661    -0.94   0.348    -.7698557    .2711444
  incomp_terr |  -.1942075   .1396453    -1.39   0.164    -.4679073    .0794923
intensity_l~l |  -.2944524   .1691063    -1.74   0.082    -.6258948    .0369899
rebstrength~a |   .3344054    .081218     4.12   0.000     .1752209    .4935898
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0020202   .0108981    -0.19   0.853    -.0233802    .0193398
 vdem_rescale |  -.0265799   .0159923    -1.66   0.097    -.0579242    .0047643
vdem_rescal~q |   .0013479   .0030581     0.44   0.659    -.0046458    .0073417
 active_dyads |  -.7967954   .1089778    -7.31   0.000    -1.010388   -.5832029
post_cold_war |   .4414557   .1232306     3.58   0.000     .1999282    .6829832
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_ideology c.rel_aff01) rebel_ext_mil_support inco
> mp_terr intensity_level rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale
> _sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          427             Number of obs    =       2,217
No. of failures      =          356
Time at risk         =  2827.296997
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =      138.53
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1500.8752             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 427 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   1.134969   .3465413     3.28   0.001     .4557603    1.814177
claim_ideol~y |  -.2614637   .1843129    -1.42   0.156    -.6227104     .099783
    rel_aff01 |   .4420422    .225332     1.96   0.050     .0003995    .8836849
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.4698612   .2250363    -2.09   0.037    -.9109243   -.0287981
              |
post_cold_war#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |  -.5103672   .3583975    -1.42   0.154    -1.212813    .1920789
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   -.232668   .2688288    -0.87   0.387    -.7595628    .2942268
  incomp_terr |  -.1622057   .1408441    -1.15   0.249    -.4382552    .1138437
intensity_l~l |  -.3169943   .1692024    -1.87   0.061     -.648625    .0146363
rebstrength~a |   .3442855   .0824986     4.17   0.000     .1825912    .5059799
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0025718   .0108335    -0.24   0.812     -.023805    .0186615
 vdem_rescale |  -.0260122   .0159479    -1.63   0.103    -.0572696    .0052452
vdem_rescal~q |   .0017089    .003065     0.56   0.577    -.0042985    .0077163
 active_dyads |  -.8070731   .1102876    -7.32   0.000    -1.023233   -.5909133
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_res
> cale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          427             Number of obs    =       2,217
No. of failures      =          356
Time at risk         =  2827.296997
                                                Wald chi2(14)    =      127.21
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1501.7865             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 427 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.7330795   .1573113    -4.66   0.000    -1.041404    -.424755
 claim_libdem |  -.3040466   .1720589    -1.77   0.077    -.6412758    .0331827
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .4028972   .1466258     2.75   0.006     .1155158    .6902786
Christian-~l  |   .6143748   .4269368     1.44   0.150    -.2224059    1.451155
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .1095096   .1466757     0.75   0.455    -.1779694    .3969887
Muslim-The~l  |  -.3953312   .2205406    -1.79   0.073    -.8275828    .0369204
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3145875   .2840763    -1.11   0.268    -.8713669    .2421919
  incomp_terr |  -.2299732   .1394377    -1.65   0.099    -.5032662    .0433197
intensity_l~l |  -.3688031   .1751818    -2.11   0.035    -.7121531    -.025453
rebstrength~a |   .3123052   .0771414     4.05   0.000     .1611108    .4634995
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0031036   .0109208    -0.28   0.776    -.0245079    .0183008
 vdem_rescale |  -.0160582   .0160648    -1.00   0.318    -.0475446    .0154282
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0009783   .0029031    -0.34   0.736    -.0066683    .0047116
 active_dyads |  -.8004966   .1130769    -7.08   0.000    -1.022123     -.57887
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_res
> cale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog 
> strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          427             Number of obs    =       2,217
No. of failures      =          356
Time at risk         =  2827.296997
                                                Wald chi2(15)    =      132.58
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1496.2703             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 427 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |   -.612494   .1628802    -3.76   0.000    -.9317333   -.2932548
 claim_libdem |  -.3497221   .1689517    -2.07   0.038    -.6808613    -.018583
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .4182618   .1473395     2.84   0.005     .1294817     .707042
Christian-~l  |   .4662017   .4212838     1.11   0.268    -.3594995    1.291903
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .0748148   .1473673     0.51   0.612    -.2140198    .3636494
Muslim-The~l  |  -.5592739   .2316959    -2.41   0.016     -1.01339   -.1051583
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.4462536   .3046918    -1.46   0.143    -1.043438    .1509313
  incomp_terr |  -.1568934   .1409798    -1.11   0.266    -.4332087    .1194219
intensity_l~l |  -.3416439   .1756323    -1.95   0.052    -.6858769     .002589
rebstrength~a |   .3031956   .0800375     3.79   0.000     .1463249    .4600664
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0088772   .0111588    -0.80   0.426     -.030748    .0129936
 vdem_rescale |  -.0218278   .0156135    -1.40   0.162    -.0524298    .0087741
vdem_rescal~q |   .0012423   .0030096     0.41   0.680    -.0046563    .0071409
 active_dyads |  -.8148976   .1122363    -7.26   0.000    -1.034877   -.5949184
post_cold_war |   .4424844   .1350604     3.28   0.001     .1777708     .707198
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_communist c.claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_
> claim_type) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level rebstrength_nsa 
> side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust)
>  nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          427             Number of obs    =       2,217
No. of failures      =          356
Time at risk         =  2827.296997
                                                Wald chi2(21)    =      155.89
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1489.5745             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 427 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .7820034   .2538626     3.08   0.002     .2844419    1.279565
claim_commu~t |  -.5698242   .2047394    -2.78   0.005     -.971106   -.1685424
 claim_libdem |  -.4014996   .2721953    -1.48   0.140    -.9349925    .1319933
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .5003739   .2185719     2.29   0.022     .0719809     .928767
Christian-~l  |    .494738   .8098472     0.61   0.541    -1.092533    2.082009
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .2648097   .2079067     1.27   0.203    -.1426799    .6722993
Muslim-The~l  |   .6407419   .3372726     1.90   0.057    -.0203002    1.301784
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |  -.1538002    .295386    -0.52   0.603    -.7327461    .4251457
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |   .0727384   .3228686     0.23   0.822    -.5600723    .7055491
              |
post_cold_war#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |  -.2474842   .3157639    -0.78   0.433      -.86637    .3714016
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |  -.2197127   .7727022    -0.28   0.776    -1.734181    1.294756
              |
post_cold_war#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.4433387   .3125225    -1.42   0.156    -1.055872    .1691942
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -1.688351   .4676303    -3.61   0.000     -2.60489   -.7718128
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.4509841   .3233853    -1.39   0.163    -1.084808    .1828394
  incomp_terr |  -.1774906   .1427444    -1.24   0.214    -.4572645    .1022834
intensity_l~l |  -.3438092   .1791405    -1.92   0.055    -.6949181    .0072998
rebstrength~a |   .3067955   .0825191     3.72   0.000      .145061    .4685299
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0067431   .0114369    -0.59   0.555    -.0291591    .0156729
 vdem_rescale |  -.0218803   .0166363    -1.32   0.188     -.054487    .0107263
vdem_rescal~q |   .0005022   .0031165     0.16   0.872     -.005606    .0066104
 active_dyads |  -.8200491   .1105142    -7.42   0.000    -1.036653   -.6034453
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. **************************

. 
. * SET DATA AS PANEL DATA *

. 
. **************************

. 
. 
. 
. xtset dyad_id_rev year
       panel variable:  dyad_id_rev (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2017, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *************

. 
. * Table A4-D. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Any Ideological Incompatibi
> lity - Dyadic, NSA Data *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *************

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq act
> ive_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(69)     =     376.97
Log pseudolikelihood  = -764.85683              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .8876851    .454796     1.95   0.051    -.0036987    1.779069
incomp_rel_~f |   .4573179   .3809087     1.20   0.230    -.2892493    1.203885
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.279331   .7855055     2.90   0.004     .7397686    3.818893
  incomp_terr |   -.445682    .459089    -0.97   0.332     -1.34548    .4541159
rebstrength~a |   .9800277   .2500585     3.92   0.000     .4899221    1.470133
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0281916   .0345905    -0.82   0.415    -.0959878    .0396046
 vdem_rescale |  -.0231326   .0554808    -0.42   0.677     -.131873    .0856078
vdem_rescal~q |   .0088151   .0080707     1.09   0.275    -.0070033    .0246334
 active_dyads |   .1977496   .1475103     1.34   0.180    -.0913652    .4868645
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.134473   1.306996    -0.87   0.385    -3.696139    1.427192
        1952  |  -1.469777    1.46819    -1.00   0.317    -4.347377    1.407823
        1953  |     .36565   1.443507     0.25   0.800    -2.463572    3.194872
        1954  |  -3.233539   1.604682    -2.02   0.044    -6.378658   -.0884196
        1955  |  -1.132462   2.292561    -0.49   0.621      -5.6258    3.360876
        1956  |  -2.252919   2.299332    -0.98   0.327    -6.759527     2.25369
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.610528   1.887887    -0.85   0.394     -5.31072    2.089663
        1959  |   -2.22999   2.007008    -1.11   0.267    -6.163652    1.703673
        1960  |  -3.356684   1.651582    -2.03   0.042    -6.593724   -.1196431
        1961  |  -.9389385   1.644166    -0.57   0.568    -4.161446    2.283569
        1962  |  -.4376376   1.650458    -0.27   0.791    -3.672476    2.797201
        1963  |  -.5365941   1.586291    -0.34   0.735    -3.645667    2.572479
        1964  |  -1.139625   1.417285    -0.80   0.421    -3.917452    1.638201
        1965  |  -1.412068    1.48528    -0.95   0.342    -4.323163    1.499027
        1966  |  -1.361155   1.429574    -0.95   0.341    -4.163069     1.44076
        1967  |  -1.325228   1.386775    -0.96   0.339    -4.043256    1.392801
        1968  |  -1.641217    1.29096    -1.27   0.204    -4.171452    .8890185
        1969  |  -1.367078   1.356094    -1.01   0.313    -4.024973    1.290816
        1970  |  -1.497697   1.343955    -1.11   0.265    -4.131801    1.136407
        1971  |  -.5824394   1.175816    -0.50   0.620    -2.886997    1.722118
        1972  |  -2.187337   1.384093    -1.58   0.114    -4.900109    .5254354
        1973  |  -3.066237   1.576543    -1.94   0.052    -6.156204    .0237294
        1974  |  -1.223548   1.440006    -0.85   0.396    -4.045908    1.598812
        1975  |  -1.031542   1.353568    -0.76   0.446    -3.684486    1.621402
        1976  |  -.7787114   1.327601    -0.59   0.558    -3.380762    1.823339
        1977  |   -1.02255    1.31384    -0.78   0.436    -3.597629    1.552529
        1978  |   .1966956   1.356715     0.14   0.885    -2.462417    2.855808
        1979  |   -1.39809   1.319585    -1.06   0.289     -3.98443     1.18825
        1980  |  -1.160482   1.325249    -0.88   0.381    -3.757921    1.436958
        1981  |  -1.293657   1.375895    -0.94   0.347    -3.990361    1.403047
        1982  |  -.7622331   1.318154    -0.58   0.563    -3.345767      1.8213
        1983  |  -.9651988   1.344649    -0.72   0.473    -3.600662    1.670264
        1984  |  -.7379083   1.294795    -0.57   0.569    -3.275659    1.799843
        1985  |  -.9655208   1.328138    -0.73   0.467    -3.568623    1.637581
        1986  |  -1.446232   1.348162    -1.07   0.283    -4.088582    1.196117
        1987  |  -1.130451   1.339977    -0.84   0.399    -3.756759    1.495856
        1988  |  -.4158776   1.315438    -0.32   0.752    -2.994088    2.162333
        1989  |  -2.095765   1.341356    -1.56   0.118    -4.724774    .5332446
        1990  |  -1.779688    1.37368    -1.30   0.195    -4.472052    .9126763
        1991  |  -2.022966   1.370249    -1.48   0.140    -4.708605    .6626731
        1992  |  -1.230216   1.385739    -0.89   0.375    -3.946214    1.485782
        1993  |  -2.048082   1.407845    -1.45   0.146    -4.807407    .7112439
        1994  |  -1.823485   1.472315    -1.24   0.216    -4.709169      1.0622
        1995  |   -1.97257    1.48336    -1.33   0.184    -4.879903     .934762
        1996  |  -2.004446   1.416164    -1.42   0.157    -4.780075    .7711839
        1997  |  -2.038109   1.402908    -1.45   0.146    -4.787759      .71154
        1998  |  -1.163302   1.386222    -0.84   0.401    -3.880246    1.553642
        1999  |  -1.182862   1.380204    -0.86   0.391    -3.888013    1.522288
        2000  |  -1.822991   1.394887    -1.31   0.191     -4.55692    .9109374
        2001  |  -2.584958   1.405388    -1.84   0.066    -5.339468     .169552
        2002  |  -1.443207   1.460111    -0.99   0.323    -4.304971    1.418558
        2003  |  -2.518454   1.632274    -1.54   0.123    -5.717652     .680745
        2004  |  -1.481628   1.508298    -0.98   0.326    -4.437838    1.474581
        2005  |  -2.309672   1.637395    -1.41   0.158    -5.518908     .899564
        2006  |  -3.434705   1.432299    -2.40   0.016     -6.24196   -.6274503
        2007  |  -3.124168   1.540586    -2.03   0.043    -6.143662    -.104674
        2008  |  -2.965761   1.404151    -2.11   0.035    -5.717846   -.2136768
        2009  |  -2.456289   1.415903    -1.73   0.083    -5.231408    .3188292
        2010  |  -3.121381   1.427869    -2.19   0.029    -5.919953   -.3228081
        2011  |  -3.019029   1.556033    -1.94   0.052    -6.068798    .0307399
              |
        _cons |   -1.44115   1.391462    -1.04   0.300    -4.168366    1.286066
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.939476   .1975802                      1.552226    2.326727
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.637254   .2605346                       2.17301     3.20068
          rho |   .6788799   .0430729                      .5893741    .7569222
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq act
> ive_dyads post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2011.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(69)     =     376.97
Log pseudolikelihood  = -764.85683              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .8876851    .454796     1.95   0.051    -.0036987    1.779069
incomp_rel_~f |   .4573179   .3809087     1.20   0.230    -.2892493    1.203885
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.279331   .7855055     2.90   0.004     .7397686    3.818893
  incomp_terr |   -.445682    .459089    -0.97   0.332     -1.34548    .4541159
rebstrength~a |   .9800277   .2500585     3.92   0.000     .4899221    1.470133
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0281916   .0345905    -0.82   0.415    -.0959878    .0396046
 vdem_rescale |  -.0231326   .0554808    -0.42   0.677     -.131873    .0856078
vdem_rescal~q |   .0088151   .0080707     1.09   0.275    -.0070033    .0246334
 active_dyads |   .1977496   .1475103     1.34   0.180    -.0913652    .4868645
post_cold_war |  -3.019029   1.556033    -1.94   0.052    -6.068798    .0307399
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.134473   1.306996    -0.87   0.385    -3.696139    1.427192
        1952  |  -1.469777    1.46819    -1.00   0.317    -4.347377    1.407823
        1953  |     .36565   1.443507     0.25   0.800    -2.463572    3.194872
        1954  |  -3.233539   1.604682    -2.02   0.044    -6.378658   -.0884196
        1955  |  -1.132462   2.292561    -0.49   0.621      -5.6258    3.360876
        1956  |  -2.252919   2.299332    -0.98   0.327    -6.759527     2.25369
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.610528   1.887887    -0.85   0.394     -5.31072    2.089663
        1959  |   -2.22999   2.007008    -1.11   0.267    -6.163652    1.703673
        1960  |  -3.356684   1.651582    -2.03   0.042    -6.593724   -.1196431
        1961  |  -.9389385   1.644166    -0.57   0.568    -4.161446    2.283569
        1962  |  -.4376376   1.650458    -0.27   0.791    -3.672476    2.797201
        1963  |  -.5365941   1.586291    -0.34   0.735    -3.645667    2.572479
        1964  |  -1.139625   1.417285    -0.80   0.421    -3.917452    1.638201
        1965  |  -1.412068    1.48528    -0.95   0.342    -4.323163    1.499027
        1966  |  -1.361155   1.429574    -0.95   0.341    -4.163069     1.44076
        1967  |  -1.325228   1.386775    -0.96   0.339    -4.043256    1.392801
        1968  |  -1.641217    1.29096    -1.27   0.204    -4.171452    .8890185
        1969  |  -1.367078   1.356094    -1.01   0.313    -4.024973    1.290816
        1970  |  -1.497697   1.343955    -1.11   0.265    -4.131801    1.136407
        1971  |  -.5824394   1.175816    -0.50   0.620    -2.886997    1.722118
        1972  |  -2.187337   1.384093    -1.58   0.114    -4.900109    .5254354
        1973  |  -3.066237   1.576543    -1.94   0.052    -6.156204    .0237294
        1974  |  -1.223548   1.440006    -0.85   0.396    -4.045908    1.598812
        1975  |  -1.031542   1.353568    -0.76   0.446    -3.684486    1.621402
        1976  |  -.7787114   1.327601    -0.59   0.558    -3.380762    1.823339
        1977  |   -1.02255    1.31384    -0.78   0.436    -3.597629    1.552529
        1978  |   .1966956   1.356715     0.14   0.885    -2.462417    2.855808
        1979  |   -1.39809   1.319585    -1.06   0.289     -3.98443     1.18825
        1980  |  -1.160482   1.325249    -0.88   0.381    -3.757921    1.436958
        1981  |  -1.293657   1.375895    -0.94   0.347    -3.990361    1.403047
        1982  |  -.7622331   1.318154    -0.58   0.563    -3.345767      1.8213
        1983  |  -.9651988   1.344649    -0.72   0.473    -3.600662    1.670264
        1984  |  -.7379083   1.294795    -0.57   0.569    -3.275659    1.799843
        1985  |  -.9655208   1.328138    -0.73   0.467    -3.568623    1.637581
        1986  |  -1.446232   1.348162    -1.07   0.283    -4.088582    1.196117
        1987  |  -1.130451   1.339977    -0.84   0.399    -3.756759    1.495856
        1988  |  -.4158776   1.315438    -0.32   0.752    -2.994088    2.162333
        1989  |  -2.095765   1.341356    -1.56   0.118    -4.724774    .5332446
        1990  |  -1.779688    1.37368    -1.30   0.195    -4.472052    .9126763
        1991  |   .9960632    1.01496     0.98   0.326     -.993221    2.985347
        1992  |   1.788813   1.002903     1.78   0.074    -.1768415    3.754467
        1993  |   .9709476   1.045869     0.93   0.353    -1.078918    3.020813
        1994  |   1.195544   1.088907     1.10   0.272    -.9386741    3.329763
        1995  |   1.046459   1.145307     0.91   0.361    -1.198302     3.29122
        1996  |   1.014583   1.084045     0.94   0.349    -1.110107    3.139273
        1997  |   .9809196   1.024576     0.96   0.338    -1.027212    2.989052
        1998  |   1.855727   .9955892     1.86   0.062    -.0955922    3.807046
        1999  |   1.836167   .9912909     1.85   0.064    -.1067279    3.779061
        2000  |   1.196038   1.001267     1.19   0.232    -.7664086    3.158484
        2001  |    .434071   1.011863     0.43   0.668    -1.549144    2.417286
        2002  |   1.575822   1.048261     1.50   0.133    -.4787306    3.630375
        2003  |   .5005756   1.313759     0.38   0.703    -2.074345    3.075496
        2004  |   1.537401   1.177521     1.31   0.192    -.7704972    3.845299
        2005  |   .7093572   1.234318     0.57   0.565    -1.709861    3.128575
        2006  |  -.4156762   .9513947    -0.44   0.662    -2.280375    1.449023
        2007  |  -.1051389   1.104957    -0.10   0.924    -2.270815    2.060537
        2008  |   .0532678   .8087995     0.07   0.947     -1.53195    1.638486
        2009  |   .5627396    .912099     0.62   0.537    -1.224942    2.350421
        2010  |  -.1023515   .8352639    -0.12   0.902    -1.739439    1.534736
        2011  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |   -1.44115   1.391462    -1.04   0.300    -4.168366    1.286066
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.939476   .1975802                      1.552226    2.326727
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.637254   .2605346                       2.17301     3.20068
          rho |   .6788799   .0430729                      .5893741    .7569222
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_a
> ff) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescal
> e vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) no
> log
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2011.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(71)     =     383.51
Log pseudolikelihood  = -764.67902              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.394011   1.748162    -1.94   0.052    -6.820345    .0323239
incomp_ideo~l |   .7652298   .5932199     1.29   0.197    -.3974598    1.927919
incomp_rel_~f |   .3446738    .472955     0.73   0.466    -.5823008    1.271649
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |   .2873049   .6436554     0.45   0.655    -.9742365    1.548846
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .2313311   .7310428     0.32   0.752    -1.201486    1.664149
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.287786   .7750651     2.95   0.003     .7686864    3.806886
  incomp_terr |  -.4386877   .4597822    -0.95   0.340    -1.339844     .462469
rebstrength~a |   .9721914    .252359     3.85   0.000     .4775769    1.466806
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0291636    .034997    -0.83   0.405    -.0977564    .0394293
 vdem_rescale |  -.0233375    .056056    -0.42   0.677    -.1332053    .0865304
vdem_rescal~q |   .0082081   .0079639     1.03   0.303    -.0074009    .0238172
 active_dyads |   .1932775   .1488663     1.30   0.194    -.0984951    .4850501
              |
         year |
        1951  |   -1.14345   1.306815    -0.87   0.382     -3.70476    1.417859
        1952  |  -1.479734   1.472631    -1.00   0.315    -4.366038    1.406571
        1953  |   .3430195   1.439122     0.24   0.812    -2.477607    3.163646
        1954  |  -3.262696   1.614156    -2.02   0.043    -6.426384   -.0990089
        1955  |  -1.152623   2.279924    -0.51   0.613    -5.621191    3.315945
        1956  |  -2.248774   2.292525    -0.98   0.327     -6.74204    2.244493
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.634538   1.884534    -0.87   0.386    -5.328157    2.059082
        1959  |  -2.234799   2.003398    -1.12   0.265    -6.161387    1.691789
        1960  |  -3.376953   1.650881    -2.05   0.041    -6.612621   -.1412857
        1961  |  -.9684022   1.643788    -0.59   0.556    -4.190167    2.253363
        1962  |  -.4625816   1.652882    -0.28   0.780    -3.702172    2.777008
        1963  |  -.5693807   1.625216    -0.35   0.726    -3.754746    2.615985
        1964  |  -1.180856   1.447794    -0.82   0.415     -4.01848    1.656767
        1965  |  -1.454127   1.508237    -0.96   0.335    -4.410217    1.501963
        1966  |  -1.398642   1.452997    -0.96   0.336    -4.246465     1.44918
        1967  |  -1.361474   1.413445    -0.96   0.335    -4.131775    1.408828
        1968  |  -1.674701    1.29484    -1.29   0.196     -4.21254     .863139
        1969  |  -1.404734   1.361631    -1.03   0.302    -4.073482    1.264014
        1970  |  -1.534535   1.347359    -1.14   0.255    -4.175311    1.106241
        1971  |   -.630578   1.189541    -0.53   0.596    -2.962035    1.700879
        1972  |  -2.228886   1.385528    -1.61   0.108    -4.944472    .4866993
        1973  |  -3.083799   1.556308    -1.98   0.048    -6.134107   -.0334917
        1974  |  -1.259254   1.443635    -0.87   0.383    -4.088728    1.570219
        1975  |  -1.067046   1.361301    -0.78   0.433    -3.735147    1.601056
        1976  |  -.8180419    1.33662    -0.61   0.541    -3.437769    1.801685
        1977  |  -1.056764   1.323163    -0.80   0.424    -3.650117    1.536589
        1978  |    .156824   1.371541     0.11   0.909    -2.531347    2.844995
        1979  |  -1.441581   1.331162    -1.08   0.279     -4.05061    1.167448
        1980  |   -1.20361    1.33395    -0.90   0.367    -3.818105    1.410885
        1981  |  -1.334973   1.393614    -0.96   0.338    -4.066406     1.39646
        1982  |  -.8042013   1.329305    -0.60   0.545     -3.40959    1.801188
        1983  |  -1.003852    1.36085    -0.74   0.461    -3.671069    1.663365
        1984  |  -.7762242   1.313673    -0.59   0.555    -3.350976    1.798527
        1985  |  -1.007404   1.346727    -0.75   0.454    -3.646941    1.632132
        1986  |  -1.496329   1.362774    -1.10   0.272    -4.167317    1.174659
        1987  |  -1.174776   1.361255    -0.86   0.388    -3.842787    1.493235
        1988  |  -.4633117    1.32868    -0.35   0.727    -3.067476    2.140852
        1989  |  -2.141261   1.352803    -1.58   0.113    -4.792706    .5101844
        1990  |  -1.822519   1.383977    -1.32   0.188    -4.535063    .8900258
        1991  |    1.02408   1.020707     1.00   0.316    -.9764682    3.024628
        1992  |   1.800389   1.014835     1.77   0.076     -.188652     3.78943
        1993  |   .9808082   1.053444     0.93   0.352    -1.083905    3.045521
        1994  |   1.222715   1.106176     1.11   0.269    -.9453513    3.390781
        1995  |    1.06358    1.15901     0.92   0.359    -1.208039    3.335199
        1996  |   1.021945   1.093507     0.93   0.350    -1.121289    3.165178
        1997  |   .9863091   1.032641     0.96   0.340    -1.037629    3.010247
        1998  |   1.862656    1.00295     1.86   0.063    -.1030908    3.828402
        1999  |   1.836422   .9967333     1.84   0.065    -.1171396    3.789983
        2000  |    1.19092   1.000451     1.19   0.234     -.769929    3.151768
        2001  |   .4144894   1.016995     0.41   0.684    -1.578784    2.407763
        2002  |   1.567209   1.056165     1.48   0.138    -.5028361    3.637255
        2003  |   .5083175   1.316977     0.39   0.700    -2.072909    3.089544
        2004  |   1.541286   1.177618     1.31   0.191    -.7668021    3.849375
        2005  |   .7014495   1.243672     0.56   0.573    -1.736102    3.139001
        2006  |  -.4261775   .9483454    -0.45   0.653      -2.2849    1.432545
        2007  |   -.118297   1.103316    -0.11   0.915    -2.280756    2.044162
        2008  |    .046987   .8069699     0.06   0.954    -1.534645    1.628619
        2009  |   .5588125   .9119385     0.61   0.540    -1.228554    2.346179
        2010  |   -.098731   .8356495    -0.12   0.906    -1.736574    1.539112
        2011  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |   -1.21915   1.478612    -0.82   0.410    -4.117177    1.678877
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.932962   .2003071                      1.540367    2.325557
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.628678   .2632714                      2.160163    3.198808
          rho |   .6774581   .0437688                      .5865012    .7567069
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_
> crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6932689.8  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3931494.7  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -2967662.3  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1347077.2  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1186377.1  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -374969.41  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -350092.58  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -348695.39  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -348692.97  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -348692.97  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -264419.05  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5795.2225  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5749.6121  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5429.0233  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5427.6857  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5374.7118  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5331.2358  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5301.8444  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5301.1532  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5301.1484  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5301.1484  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -78096.492  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10981.802  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7150.5619  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -6101.093  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5422.5606  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5257.9529  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5196.7749  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5113.3974  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5086.2402  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5081.8272  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5081.8091  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -5081.8091  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        732
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        161

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.5
                                                              max =         22

                                                Wald chi2(33)     =      76.00
Log likelihood  = -5081.8091                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.0980602   .1184273    -0.83   0.408    -.3301735    .1340531
incomp_rel_~f |   .1071152   .1085841     0.99   0.324    -.1057057     .319936
rebel_ext_m~t |   .5762153   .2873139     2.01   0.045     .0130904     1.13934
  incomp_terr |   -.251924   .1180634    -2.13   0.033    -.4833241   -.0205239
rebstrength~a |   .1280245   .0791014     1.62   0.106    -.0270114    .2830604
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0092315   .0136155     0.68   0.498    -.0174544    .0359173
 vdem_rescale |   .0189413   .0119152     1.59   0.112    -.0044121    .0422948
vdem_rescal~q |   .0021949   .0022242     0.99   0.324    -.0021644    .0065541
     rcd_loot |   .0443503   .0909388     0.49   0.626    -.1338865    .2225872
    rcd_crime |   .4006523     .09826     4.08   0.000     .2080662    .5932385
 active_dyads |    .005318   .0432719     0.12   0.902    -.0794933    .0901292
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000506   .0000124     4.10   0.000     .0000264    .0000749
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2157226     .17486    -1.23   0.217     -.558442    .1269968
        1992  |   .1260479   .1735179     0.73   0.468     -.214041    .4661368
        1993  |  -.0480194   .1776012    -0.27   0.787    -.3961113    .3000726
        1994  |  -.0701795   .1778877    -0.39   0.693     -.418833     .278474
        1995  |  -.2476206   .1820168    -1.36   0.174     -.604367    .1091259
        1996  |   .0054988   .1888572     0.03   0.977    -.3646545    .3756521
        1997  |  -.1169863   .1908467    -0.61   0.540     -.491039    .2570663
        1998  |  -.0883667   .1839806    -0.48   0.631    -.4489621    .2722286
        1999  |   -.075235   .1830145    -0.41   0.681    -.4339368    .2834668
        2000  |  -.1259767   .1841973    -0.68   0.494    -.4869967    .2350434
        2001  |  -.3556144   .1858781    -1.91   0.056    -.7199288    .0087001
        2002  |  -.0045884   .1807323    -0.03   0.980    -.3588172    .3496405
        2003  |    -.35337    .194182    -1.82   0.069    -.7339599    .0272198
        2004  |  -.1932392   .1925395    -1.00   0.316    -.5706096    .1841312
        2005  |  -.2136074   .2004776    -1.07   0.287    -.6065362    .1793214
        2006  |  -.2466149    .194258    -1.27   0.204    -.6273536    .1341238
        2007  |  -.1532581   .1960793    -0.78   0.434    -.5375665    .2310502
        2008  |   -.147941   .1912086    -0.77   0.439    -.5227029    .2268209
        2009  |   -.132704   .1882669    -0.70   0.481    -.5017002    .2362923
        2010  |  -.3370459   .1980079    -1.70   0.089    -.7251343    .0510424
        2011  |  -.4336482   .2027857    -2.14   0.032    -.8311008   -.0361956
              |
        _cons |   .2738977   .3615522     0.76   0.449    -.4347315    .9825269
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0784814   .1266052                      -.326623    .1696602
        /ln_s |   4.525412   .2172542                      4.099601    4.951222
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9245192   .1170489                      .7213556    1.184902
            s |   92.33393   20.05994                      60.31623    141.3476
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 438.68               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_
> crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 49 groups (49 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -108262.71  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5637.0617  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4565.1117  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4159.9781  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -3914.3035  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -3894.0019  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -3833.2266  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -3751.0946  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -3749.5944  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -3749.5923  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -3749.5923  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        683
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        112

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.1
                                                              max =         22

                                                Wald chi2(33)     =      85.93
Log likelihood  = -3749.5923                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.1456836   .1451127    -1.00   0.315    -.4300992     .138732
incomp_rel_~f |   .1985331   .1290928     1.54   0.124    -.0544841    .4515504
rebel_ext_m~t |   .3278531   .3800686     0.86   0.388    -.4170678    1.072774
  incomp_terr |  -.2021128   .1406967    -1.44   0.151    -.4778732    .0736476
rebstrength~a |  -.0476395   .0946132    -0.50   0.615    -.2330779    .1377989
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0132118   .0169527     0.78   0.436     -.020015    .0464385
 vdem_rescale |   .0375548   .0132987     2.82   0.005     .0114898    .0636198
vdem_rescal~q |   .0021581   .0024108     0.90   0.371     -.002567    .0068832
     rcd_loot |  -.0081369   .1003544    -0.08   0.935    -.2048279    .1885542
    rcd_crime |   .5108483   .1102807     4.63   0.000     .2947021    .7269945
 active_dyads |   .0248095   .0483637     0.51   0.608    -.0699815    .1196006
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000394    .000014     2.82   0.005      .000012    .0000668
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2374933   .1781412    -1.33   0.182    -.5866436    .1116571
        1992  |   .0934395   .1848914     0.51   0.613    -.2689409      .45582
        1993  |  -.1102929   .1934856    -0.57   0.569    -.4895176    .2689319
        1994  |  -.1500221   .1966274    -0.76   0.445    -.5354046    .2353604
        1995  |  -.2942778   .1948379    -1.51   0.131    -.6761531    .0875975
        1996  |  -.0974446   .2016669    -0.48   0.629    -.4927045    .2978153
        1997  |  -.2705132   .2049057    -1.32   0.187    -.6721211    .1310946
        1998  |  -.2698041   .2003026    -1.35   0.178    -.6623899    .1227817
        1999  |  -.2611618   .2009292    -1.30   0.194    -.6549757    .1326522
        2000  |  -.2543429   .1984476    -1.28   0.200    -.6432931    .1346073
        2001  |  -.4744152   .1987355    -2.39   0.017    -.8639296   -.0849009
        2002  |  -.1404672   .1921084    -0.73   0.465    -.5169928    .2360584
        2003  |  -.4923563    .205875    -2.39   0.017    -.8958639   -.0888488
        2004  |  -.3418921   .2020444    -1.69   0.091    -.7378919    .0541076
        2005  |  -.3814554   .2103322    -1.81   0.070     -.793699    .0307883
        2006  |  -.3929916   .2061909    -1.91   0.057    -.7971183    .0111352
        2007  |  -.3055797   .2092127    -1.46   0.144    -.7156291    .1044697
        2008  |  -.3276697   .2103697    -1.56   0.119    -.7399867    .0846472
        2009  |  -.2667371   .2056688    -1.30   0.195    -.6698405    .1363662
        2010  |  -.5236189   .2158702    -2.43   0.015    -.9467167   -.1005212
        2011  |   -.648583   .2249375    -2.88   0.004    -1.089452   -.2077137
              |
        _cons |   .0222838   .4486645     0.05   0.960    -.8570824    .9016499
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ********************

. 
. * Table A5-D. Determinants of Conflict Intensity – Specific ideological Incomp
> atibilities – Dyadic, NSA Data *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ********************

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq act
> ive_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1129.6884  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -979.08867  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -966.9594  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -966.77609  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -966.77588  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -966.77588  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -966.77588
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood =  -918.4078
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -885.78115
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -862.22394
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -844.43973
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -831.09651
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -821.82739
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -817.83122
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -821.23428

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -816.45388  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -772.80946  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.72455  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.57138  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56665  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56665  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56385  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56385  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(71)     =     398.70
Log pseudolikelihood  = -763.56385              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .6894134    .511636     1.35   0.178    -.3133747    1.692201
 Theological  |   1.684877   .6576398     2.56   0.010     .3959271    2.973828
        Both  |   1.241924   .5995838     2.07   0.038     .0667612    2.417087
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .3632103    .385829     0.94   0.347    -.3930007    1.119421
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.357793   .7868225     3.00   0.003     .8156496    3.899937
  incomp_terr |  -.3104658   .4467562    -0.69   0.487    -1.186092    .5651603
rebstrength~a |   .9962756    .245125     4.06   0.000     .5158395    1.476712
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0268861    .033739    -0.80   0.426    -.0930132    .0392411
 vdem_rescale |  -.0145182   .0548829    -0.26   0.791    -.1220867    .0930503
vdem_rescal~q |   .0084251   .0081265     1.04   0.300    -.0075025    .0243526
 active_dyads |   .1841073   .1415052     1.30   0.193    -.0932379    .4614524
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.117547   1.277866    -0.87   0.382    -3.622118    1.387024
        1952  |  -1.481784   1.439042    -1.03   0.303    -4.302255    1.338687
        1953  |   .2916516   1.396836     0.21   0.835    -2.446097      3.0294
        1954  |  -3.244313    1.59178    -2.04   0.042    -6.364145   -.1244813
        1955  |  -1.195201   2.255584    -0.53   0.596    -5.616065    3.225662
        1956  |  -2.260891   2.273704    -0.99   0.320     -6.71727    2.195487
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.66523   1.862521    -0.89   0.371    -5.315705    1.985245
        1959  |   -2.24512   1.977411    -1.14   0.256    -6.120774    1.630533
        1960  |  -3.368028   1.632031    -2.06   0.039     -6.56675   -.1693047
        1961  |  -1.030575   1.609698    -0.64   0.522    -4.185526    2.124376
        1962  |   -.509337    1.61494    -0.32   0.752     -3.67456    2.655886
        1963  |   -.629301   1.577362    -0.40   0.690    -3.720874    2.462272
        1964  |  -1.234607   1.407527    -0.88   0.380    -3.993309    1.524095
        1965  |  -1.501208   1.466883    -1.02   0.306    -4.376246    1.373829
        1966  |  -1.440768   1.413934    -1.02   0.308    -4.212028    1.330492
        1967  |  -1.397579   1.374585    -1.02   0.309    -4.091716    1.296559
        1968  |  -1.715333   1.268147    -1.35   0.176    -4.200855    .7701882
        1969  |   -1.46291   1.329862    -1.10   0.271    -4.069392    1.143571
        1970  |  -1.594785    1.31904    -1.21   0.227    -4.180056     .990486
        1971  |  -.7006335   1.157619    -0.61   0.545    -2.969525    1.568258
        1972  |  -2.292578   1.359534    -1.69   0.092    -4.957215    .3720591
        1973  |   -3.13787   1.528084    -2.05   0.040    -6.132861   -.1428797
        1974  |  -1.331202   1.415303    -0.94   0.347    -4.105146    1.442742
        1975  |  -1.146266   1.331065    -0.86   0.389    -3.755105    1.462572
        1976  |  -.8971197   1.310611    -0.68   0.494     -3.46587    1.671631
        1977  |  -1.134829   1.294364    -0.88   0.381    -3.671737    1.402078
        1978  |    .078407   1.338428     0.06   0.953    -2.544863    2.701677
        1979  |  -1.535085   1.301613    -1.18   0.238    -4.086199    1.016029
        1980  |  -1.300067   1.307135    -0.99   0.320    -3.862004     1.26187
        1981  |  -1.426925   1.365105    -1.05   0.296    -4.102481    1.248631
        1982  |  -.9080853   1.300965    -0.70   0.485     -3.45793     1.64176
        1983  |  -1.112401   1.331195    -0.84   0.403    -3.721495    1.496692
        1984  |  -.8848948   1.280647    -0.69   0.490    -3.394917    1.625127
        1985  |  -1.106808   1.311635    -0.84   0.399    -3.677565    1.463949
        1986  |  -1.604035   1.333472    -1.20   0.229    -4.217592    1.009522
        1987  |  -1.288398   1.334006    -0.97   0.334    -3.903001    1.326205
        1988  |   -.587345   1.299866    -0.45   0.651    -3.135035    1.960345
        1989  |  -2.275611   1.336256    -1.70   0.089    -4.894625    .3434026
        1990  |  -1.964268   1.378949    -1.42   0.154    -4.666958    .7384214
        1991  |  -2.220853   1.372665    -1.62   0.106    -4.911227    .4695206
        1992  |  -1.511641    1.41815    -1.07   0.286    -4.291165    1.267883
        1993  |  -2.346468   1.443312    -1.63   0.104    -5.175308    .4823718
        1994  |  -2.099508   1.494904    -1.40   0.160    -5.029467    .8304503
        1995  |  -2.251348   1.501621    -1.50   0.134    -5.194471    .6917752
        1996  |  -2.276233   1.435676    -1.59   0.113    -5.090106    .5376412
        1997  |  -2.297961   1.414166    -1.62   0.104    -5.069675    .4737538
        1998  |  -1.431772   1.402759    -1.02   0.307    -4.181129    1.317585
        1999  |  -1.499791   1.421525    -1.06   0.291    -4.285929    1.286347
        2000  |  -2.130567   1.421504    -1.50   0.134    -4.916665    .6555307
        2001  |  -2.851837    1.43262    -1.99   0.047     -5.65972   -.0439544
        2002  |  -1.722155   1.494421    -1.15   0.249    -4.651167    1.206857
        2003  |  -2.822625   1.671488    -1.69   0.091    -6.098682    .4534325
        2004  |  -1.811223   1.543833    -1.17   0.241     -4.83708    1.214634
        2005  |  -2.605319   1.647915    -1.58   0.114    -5.835173     .624535
        2006  |  -3.750712   1.472039    -2.55   0.011    -6.635855   -.8655691
        2007  |  -3.480351   1.578899    -2.20   0.028    -6.574936   -.3857664
        2008  |  -3.331659   1.439087    -2.32   0.021    -6.152217   -.5110999
        2009  |  -2.803474   1.448442    -1.94   0.053    -5.642368    .0354198
        2010  |  -3.512989   1.426455    -2.46   0.014     -6.30879   -.7171889
        2011  |  -3.338691   1.566757    -2.13   0.033    -6.409477   -.2679043
              |
        _cons |  -1.172149    1.42753    -0.82   0.412    -3.970055    1.625758
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.890273   .1950044                      1.508072    2.272475
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.573165   .2508892                      2.125561    3.115026
          rho |   .6680605   .0432433                      .5786477    .7468019
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq act
> ive_dyads post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2011.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1129.6884  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -979.08867  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -966.9594  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -966.77609  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -966.77588  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -966.77588  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -966.77588
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood =  -918.4078
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -885.78115
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -862.22394
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -844.43973
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -831.09651
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -821.82739
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -817.83122
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -821.23428

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -816.45388  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -772.80946  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.72455  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.57138  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56665  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56665  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56385  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56385  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(71)     =     398.70
Log pseudolikelihood  = -763.56385              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .6894134    .511636     1.35   0.178    -.3133747    1.692201
 Theological  |   1.684877   .6576398     2.56   0.010     .3959271    2.973828
        Both  |   1.241924   .5995838     2.07   0.038     .0667612    2.417087
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .3632103    .385829     0.94   0.347    -.3930007    1.119421
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.357793   .7868225     3.00   0.003     .8156496    3.899937
  incomp_terr |  -.3104658   .4467562    -0.69   0.487    -1.186092    .5651603
rebstrength~a |   .9962756    .245125     4.06   0.000     .5158395    1.476712
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0268861    .033739    -0.80   0.426    -.0930132    .0392411
 vdem_rescale |  -.0145182   .0548829    -0.26   0.791    -.1220867    .0930503
vdem_rescal~q |   .0084251   .0081265     1.04   0.300    -.0075025    .0243526
 active_dyads |   .1841073   .1415052     1.30   0.193    -.0932379    .4614524
post_cold_war |  -3.338691   1.566757    -2.13   0.033    -6.409477   -.2679043
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.117547   1.277866    -0.87   0.382    -3.622118    1.387024
        1952  |  -1.481784   1.439042    -1.03   0.303    -4.302255    1.338687
        1953  |   .2916516   1.396836     0.21   0.835    -2.446097      3.0294
        1954  |  -3.244313    1.59178    -2.04   0.042    -6.364145   -.1244813
        1955  |  -1.195201   2.255584    -0.53   0.596    -5.616065    3.225662
        1956  |  -2.260891   2.273704    -0.99   0.320     -6.71727    2.195487
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |   -1.66523   1.862521    -0.89   0.371    -5.315705    1.985245
        1959  |   -2.24512   1.977411    -1.14   0.256    -6.120774    1.630533
        1960  |  -3.368028   1.632031    -2.06   0.039     -6.56675   -.1693047
        1961  |  -1.030575   1.609698    -0.64   0.522    -4.185526    2.124376
        1962  |   -.509337    1.61494    -0.32   0.752     -3.67456    2.655886
        1963  |   -.629301   1.577362    -0.40   0.690    -3.720874    2.462272
        1964  |  -1.234607   1.407527    -0.88   0.380    -3.993309    1.524095
        1965  |  -1.501208   1.466883    -1.02   0.306    -4.376246    1.373829
        1966  |  -1.440768   1.413934    -1.02   0.308    -4.212028    1.330492
        1967  |  -1.397579   1.374585    -1.02   0.309    -4.091716    1.296559
        1968  |  -1.715333   1.268147    -1.35   0.176    -4.200855    .7701882
        1969  |   -1.46291   1.329862    -1.10   0.271    -4.069392    1.143571
        1970  |  -1.594785    1.31904    -1.21   0.227    -4.180056     .990486
        1971  |  -.7006335   1.157619    -0.61   0.545    -2.969525    1.568258
        1972  |  -2.292578   1.359534    -1.69   0.092    -4.957215    .3720591
        1973  |   -3.13787   1.528084    -2.05   0.040    -6.132861   -.1428797
        1974  |  -1.331202   1.415303    -0.94   0.347    -4.105146    1.442742
        1975  |  -1.146266   1.331065    -0.86   0.389    -3.755105    1.462572
        1976  |  -.8971197   1.310611    -0.68   0.494     -3.46587    1.671631
        1977  |  -1.134829   1.294364    -0.88   0.381    -3.671737    1.402078
        1978  |    .078407   1.338428     0.06   0.953    -2.544863    2.701677
        1979  |  -1.535085   1.301613    -1.18   0.238    -4.086199    1.016029
        1980  |  -1.300067   1.307135    -0.99   0.320    -3.862004     1.26187
        1981  |  -1.426925   1.365105    -1.05   0.296    -4.102481    1.248631
        1982  |  -.9080853   1.300965    -0.70   0.485     -3.45793     1.64176
        1983  |  -1.112401   1.331195    -0.84   0.403    -3.721495    1.496692
        1984  |  -.8848948   1.280647    -0.69   0.490    -3.394917    1.625127
        1985  |  -1.106808   1.311635    -0.84   0.399    -3.677565    1.463949
        1986  |  -1.604035   1.333472    -1.20   0.229    -4.217592    1.009522
        1987  |  -1.288398   1.334006    -0.97   0.334    -3.903001    1.326205
        1988  |   -.587345   1.299866    -0.45   0.651    -3.135035    1.960345
        1989  |  -2.275611   1.336256    -1.70   0.089    -4.894625    .3434026
        1990  |  -1.964268   1.378949    -1.42   0.154    -4.666958    .7384214
        1991  |   1.117838   1.007903     1.11   0.267     -.857616    3.093291
        1992  |    1.82705   1.002341     1.82   0.068    -.1375019    3.791601
        1993  |   .9922227    1.04765     0.95   0.344    -1.061133    3.045578
        1994  |   1.239183   1.093609     1.13   0.257    -.9042511    3.382616
        1995  |   1.087343   1.145051     0.95   0.342    -1.156916    3.331602
        1996  |   1.062458   1.082918     0.98   0.327    -1.060023    3.184939
        1997  |    1.04073   1.014025     1.03   0.305    -.9467228    3.028183
        1998  |   1.906919   .9867058     1.93   0.053    -.0269889    3.840827
        1999  |     1.8389   .9879397     1.86   0.063    -.0974262    3.775226
        2000  |   1.208124   .9886311     1.22   0.222    -.7295577    3.145805
        2001  |   .4868534   1.006655     0.48   0.629    -1.486155    2.459861
        2002  |   1.616536   1.034078     1.56   0.118    -.4102204    3.643292
        2003  |    .516066   1.321314     0.39   0.696    -2.073662    3.105794
        2004  |   1.527467   1.175498     1.30   0.194    -.7764667    3.831402
        2005  |   .7333717   1.225869     0.60   0.550    -1.669288    3.136031
        2006  |  -.4120216   .9588961    -0.43   0.667    -2.291423     1.46738
        2007  |  -.1416607   1.127716    -0.13   0.900    -2.351943    2.068622
        2008  |    .007032   .8208734     0.01   0.993     -1.60185    1.615914
        2009  |   .5352168   .9218018     0.58   0.561    -1.271482    2.341915
        2010  |  -.1742988   .8345408    -0.21   0.835    -1.809969    1.461371
        2011  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.172149    1.42753    -0.82   0.412    -3.970055    1.625758
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.890273   .1950044                      1.508072    2.272475
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.573165   .2508892                      2.125561    3.115026
          rho |   .6680605   .0432433                      .5786477    .7468019
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff
> ) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale 
> vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2011.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1129.6884  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -963.24653  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -948.02536  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -947.76944  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -947.76937  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -947.76937
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -904.35129
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -875.04841
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -853.65172
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -837.43211
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -825.27304
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -816.79823
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood =  -812.0762
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood =  -813.8035

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -811.44064  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -766.94132  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -756.16851  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.90676  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.90438  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.90438  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.90348  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -755.90348  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(75)     =     416.38
Log pseudolikelihood  = -755.90348              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.830763   1.760521    -2.18   0.030     -7.28132   -.3802065
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .4789575   .6059791     0.79   0.429    -.7087397    1.666655
 Theological  |   1.724676   .9312318     1.85   0.064    -.1005045    3.549857
        Both  |   2.560756   .7875864     3.25   0.001     1.017115    4.104397
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .2285674   .4745207     0.48   0.630    -.7014761    1.158611
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |   .7671699   .7141434     1.07   0.283    -.6325255    2.166865
           1 #|
 Theological  |   .3243176   .8764876     0.37   0.711    -1.393566    2.042202
      1#Both  |   -2.26746   .8987947    -2.52   0.012    -4.029066   -.5058552
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .4269392   .7122589     0.60   0.549    -.9690627    1.822941
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |    2.36654   .7681093     3.08   0.002     .8610731    3.872006
  incomp_terr |  -.3545764   .4577685    -0.77   0.439    -1.251786    .5426333
rebstrength~a |   1.018105   .2589901     3.93   0.000     .5104935    1.525716
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0226717    .034233    -0.66   0.508    -.0897672    .0444238
 vdem_rescale |  -.0124422   .0594644    -0.21   0.834    -.1289903     .104106
vdem_rescal~q |   .0092698   .0081098     1.14   0.253    -.0066252    .0251647
 active_dyads |    .074935   .1345787     0.56   0.578    -.1888344    .3387044
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.141026   1.264341    -0.90   0.367    -3.619089    1.337037
        1952  |  -1.475485   1.433221    -1.03   0.303    -4.284547    1.333577
        1953  |   .1643843   1.327803     0.12   0.901    -2.438061     2.76683
        1954  |  -3.318739   1.606897    -2.07   0.039    -6.468199    -.169278
        1955  |  -1.213529    2.24862    -0.54   0.589    -5.620743    3.193686
        1956  |  -2.274913   2.260516    -1.01   0.314    -6.705444    2.155618
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.739337   1.857035    -0.94   0.349     -5.37906    1.900385
        1959  |  -2.293811    1.98007    -1.16   0.247    -6.174677    1.587056
        1960  |  -3.452444   1.636938    -2.11   0.035    -6.660784   -.2441046
        1961  |  -1.172529    1.60789    -0.73   0.466    -4.323936    1.978878
        1962  |  -.6480616   1.619425    -0.40   0.689    -3.822077    2.525954
        1963  |  -.8171643   1.631929    -0.50   0.617    -4.015687    2.381358
        1964  |  -1.444546   1.445777    -1.00   0.318    -4.278217    1.389125
        1965  |  -1.708907   1.495929    -1.14   0.253    -4.640874     1.22306
        1966  |  -1.599201   1.447491    -1.10   0.269    -4.436231    1.237829
        1967  |  -1.563181   1.406109    -1.11   0.266    -4.319104    1.192742
        1968  |   -1.89039   1.265687    -1.49   0.135     -4.37109    .5903106
        1969  |  -1.642812   1.325927    -1.24   0.215    -4.241581    .9559566
        1970  |  -1.767038   1.310549    -1.35   0.178    -4.335667    .8015915
        1971  |  -.8943728   1.164269    -0.77   0.442    -3.176299    1.387553
        1972  |  -2.519019   1.348058    -1.87   0.062    -5.161164    .1231272
        1973  |  -3.307997   1.471661    -2.25   0.025      -6.1924   -.4235943
        1974  |  -1.543741   1.408148    -1.10   0.273    -4.303661    1.216179
        1975  |  -1.328772   1.329061    -1.00   0.317    -3.933684    1.276141
        1976  |  -1.094762    1.31693    -0.83   0.406    -3.675898    1.486374
        1977  |  -1.291916   1.297853    -1.00   0.320    -3.835661    1.251829
        1978  |  -.0988059   1.347344    -0.07   0.942    -2.739552    2.541941
        1979  |   -1.80582   1.308436    -1.38   0.168    -4.370307    .7586666
        1980  |  -1.614609   1.316006    -1.23   0.220    -4.193933    .9647157
        1981  |  -1.711028   1.391795    -1.23   0.219    -4.438896    1.016841
        1982  |  -1.181331   1.309517    -0.90   0.367    -3.747936    1.385275
        1983  |  -1.373611    1.35845    -1.01   0.312    -4.036125    1.288903
        1984  |  -1.105388   1.304105    -0.85   0.397    -3.661386    1.450611
        1985  |   -1.34523   1.335823    -1.01   0.314    -3.963395    1.272936
        1986  |  -1.869202   1.352812    -1.38   0.167    -4.520666    .7822614
        1987  |   -1.54158   1.359635    -1.13   0.257    -4.206416    1.123256
        1988  |  -.8184154   1.325743    -0.62   0.537    -3.416823    1.779993
        1989  |  -2.617103   1.394735    -1.88   0.061    -5.350732    .1165271
        1990  |  -2.271895   1.435913    -1.58   0.114    -5.086232    .5424426
        1991  |    1.14148    1.03019     1.11   0.268    -.8776541    3.160615
        1992  |   1.678438   1.009211     1.66   0.096    -.2995803    3.656456
        1993  |    .904776   1.059562     0.85   0.393    -1.171928     2.98148
        1994  |   1.095396   1.097677     1.00   0.318     -1.05601    3.246803
        1995  |   .9349385   1.139517     0.82   0.412    -1.298474    3.168351
        1996  |   .9628841   1.088375     0.88   0.376    -1.170292     3.09606
        1997  |   .9219167    1.02784     0.90   0.370    -1.092612    2.936446
        1998  |   1.774188   .9908514     1.79   0.073    -.1678455    3.716221
        1999  |    1.67419   1.002468     1.67   0.095    -.2906106    3.638991
        2000  |   1.013218   1.004707     1.01   0.313     -.955971    2.982407
        2001  |   .3667373   1.023125     0.36   0.720    -1.638551    2.372025
        2002  |   1.504793   1.060294     1.42   0.156    -.5733462    3.582932
        2003  |   .5105548   1.272497     0.40   0.688    -1.983494    3.004603
        2004  |   1.465954   1.156588     1.27   0.205    -.8009178    3.732826
        2005  |    .604127   1.251284     0.48   0.629    -1.848345    3.056599
        2006  |  -.4959112   .9612143    -0.52   0.606    -2.379857    1.388034
        2007  |  -.2988602   1.186693    -0.25   0.801    -2.624736    2.027016
        2008  |  -.1962507   .8203819    -0.24   0.811     -1.80417    1.411668
        2009  |   .3185065   .9229443     0.35   0.730    -1.490431    2.127444
        2010  |  -.3671996   .8281879    -0.44   0.657    -1.990418    1.256019
        2011  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -.8058634   1.497767    -0.54   0.591    -3.741432    2.129705
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.918313   .1996328                      1.527039    2.309586
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.609494   .2604702                      2.145816    3.173366
          rho |   .6742488   .0438468                      .5832652    .7537546
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_
> crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6754683.3  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4540429.5  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -2880588.1  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1600303.7  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -869959.18  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -358570.42  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -328373.07  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood =  -327098.8  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -327095.66  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -327095.66  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -264419.05  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5795.2225  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5749.6121  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5429.0233  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5427.6857  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5374.7797  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5338.7716  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5290.9201  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5289.8123  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5289.8055  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5289.8055  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -76282.592  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10395.843  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7321.3395  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5919.7641  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5397.4604  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5289.6334  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5256.5187  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5149.9544  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5111.8069  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5080.7892  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5080.0078  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -5080.0059  
Iteration 12:  log likelihood = -5080.0059  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        732
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        161

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.5
                                                              max =         22

                                                Wald chi2(35)     =      80.35
Log likelihood  = -5080.0059                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.1758016   .1342459    -1.31   0.190    -.4389188    .0873156
 Theological  |   .1044584   .1571189     0.66   0.506    -.2034889    .4124057
        Both  |  -.1268491   .1464972    -0.87   0.387    -.4139783      .16028
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .1097689    .115522     0.95   0.342    -.1166501    .3361879
rebel_ext_m~t |   .5766433   .2854398     2.02   0.043     .0171914    1.136095
  incomp_terr |  -.2377873     .11833    -2.01   0.044    -.4697099   -.0058647
rebstrength~a |   .1539912   .0797649     1.93   0.054    -.0023451    .3103274
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0123041   .0137141     0.90   0.370    -.0145751    .0391833
 vdem_rescale |   .0228479   .0121596     1.88   0.060    -.0009845    .0466803
vdem_rescal~q |   .0030213   .0022459     1.35   0.179    -.0013805    .0074231
     rcd_loot |   .0447456   .0907373     0.49   0.622    -.1330963    .2225875
    rcd_crime |   .4250807   .0988081     4.30   0.000     .2314204     .618741
 active_dyads |  -.0047441   .0446418    -0.11   0.915    -.0922405    .0827522
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000496   .0000124     4.00   0.000     .0000253    .0000739
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2193647   .1753322    -1.25   0.211    -.5630096    .1242801
        1992  |   .0939811   .1738914     0.54   0.589    -.2468398     .434802
        1993  |   -.061989   .1769341    -0.35   0.726    -.4087735    .2847955
        1994  |  -.1158627   .1791481    -0.65   0.518    -.4669865     .235261
        1995  |  -.3024752    .183839    -1.65   0.100     -.662793    .0578426
        1996  |  -.0535288   .1908934    -0.28   0.779    -.4276731    .3206154
        1997  |  -.1437671   .1905158    -0.75   0.450    -.5171713    .2296371
        1998  |  -.1043165   .1832142    -0.57   0.569    -.4634098    .2547768
        1999  |  -.1033044   .1833284    -0.56   0.573    -.4626214    .2560127
        2000  |  -.1736461   .1851613    -0.94   0.348    -.5365556    .1892633
        2001  |  -.4028835   .1870822    -2.15   0.031    -.7695579    -.036209
        2002  |  -.0450248   .1814151    -0.25   0.804    -.4005918    .3105422
        2003  |  -.3858432   .1943084    -1.99   0.047    -.7666807   -.0050056
        2004  |  -.2286032   .1928717    -1.19   0.236    -.6066247    .1494183
        2005  |  -.2560315   .2024332    -1.26   0.206    -.6527933    .1407303
        2006  |  -.2773752   .1940503    -1.43   0.153    -.6577069    .1029565
        2007  |  -.1975704   .1961356    -1.01   0.314    -.5819892    .1868483
        2008  |  -.2074378   .1925355    -1.08   0.281    -.5848004    .1699248
        2009  |  -.1865109   .1888906    -0.99   0.323    -.5567296    .1837078
        2010  |  -.4121811   .2005308    -2.06   0.040    -.8052143    -.019148
        2011  |  -.4950205   .2037029    -2.43   0.015    -.8942708   -.0957702
              |
        _cons |   .2603714   .3670859     0.71   0.478    -.4591038    .9798466
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0551505   .1284647                     -.3069367    .1966358
        /ln_s |   4.570625    .220271                      4.138902    5.002349
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9463428   .1215717                      .7356972    1.217301
            s |    96.6045   21.27917                       62.7339    148.7621
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 419.60               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_
> crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 49 groups (49 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -200897.54  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10687.029  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6820.6237  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5118.1382  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4937.0255  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -4527.416  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4320.0207  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4212.0983  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -3948.8016  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -3786.5891  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -3749.1298  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -3748.8005  
Iteration 12:  log likelihood = -3748.8003  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        683
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        112

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.1
                                                              max =         22

                                                Wald chi2(35)     =      87.97
Log likelihood  = -3748.8003                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.1360358    .167348    -0.81   0.416    -.4640319    .1919604
 Theological  |  -.0064204   .1900458    -0.03   0.973    -.3789032    .3660624
        Both  |   -.239231   .1743887    -1.37   0.170    -.5810265    .1025645
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .2463308   .1408812     1.75   0.080    -.0297913    .5224529
rebel_ext_m~t |   .3171794    .375654     0.84   0.398     -.419089    1.053448
  incomp_terr |  -.1897741   .1413811    -1.34   0.180     -.466876    .0873278
rebstrength~a |  -.0241933   .0966802    -0.25   0.802     -.213683    .1652964
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0151107     .01704     0.89   0.375    -.0182871    .0485085
 vdem_rescale |   .0389998   .0136494     2.86   0.004     .0122474    .0657522
vdem_rescal~q |   .0028422   .0024783     1.15   0.251    -.0020152    .0076996
     rcd_loot |  -.0144471   .1006806    -0.14   0.886    -.2117774    .1828832
    rcd_crime |   .5236966   .1117567     4.69   0.000     .3046576    .7427357
 active_dyads |   .0303511   .0506195     0.60   0.549    -.0688614    .1295635
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000378    .000014     2.69   0.007     .0000103    .0000653
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2361456   .1774188    -1.33   0.183    -.5838801     .111589
        1992  |    .071595   .1846443     0.39   0.698    -.2903012    .4334913
        1993  |   -.116147   .1920394    -0.60   0.545    -.4925374    .2602433
        1994  |  -.1611519   .1969452    -0.82   0.413    -.5471574    .2248536
        1995  |  -.3292583    .195997    -1.68   0.093    -.7134053    .0548888
        1996  |  -.1222275   .2026126    -0.60   0.546    -.5193409    .2748858
        1997  |  -.2820434   .2039387    -1.38   0.167     -.681756    .1176691
        1998  |  -.2717239   .1989886    -1.37   0.172    -.6617344    .1182867
        1999  |  -.2695499   .2001439    -1.35   0.178    -.6618248    .1227249
        2000  |  -.2822619   .1986784    -1.42   0.155    -.6716644    .1071407
        2001  |  -.4978213   .1988593    -2.50   0.012    -.8875784   -.1080641
        2002  |  -.1648458   .1922662    -0.86   0.391    -.5416807    .2119891
        2003  |  -.5046875   .2052264    -2.46   0.014    -.9069238   -.1024512
        2004  |  -.3506489   .2019041    -1.74   0.082    -.7463737    .0450759
        2005  |  -.3776911   .2122374    -1.78   0.075    -.7936689    .0382866
        2006  |  -.3939621   .2051866    -1.92   0.055    -.7961205    .0081963
        2007  |  -.3244842   .2086761    -1.55   0.120    -.7334819    .0845134
        2008  |  -.3597971   .2114644    -1.70   0.089    -.7742596    .0546655
        2009  |    -.29268   .2066031    -1.42   0.157    -.6976147    .1122548
        2010  |  -.5592585   .2181196    -2.56   0.010    -.9867652   -.1317519
        2011  |  -.6673386   .2244726    -2.97   0.003    -1.107297   -.2273804
              |
        _cons |  -.0319933   .4543534    -0.07   0.944    -.9225096     .858523
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ****

. 
. * Table A6-D. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Any Ideological Claim - Mon
> adic, NSA Data *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ****

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads 
> i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1129.6884  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -982.14457  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -970.2929  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -970.10331  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -970.10306  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -970.10306  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -970.10306
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -922.40805
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -889.52495
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -865.37621
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -847.06887
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -833.38428
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -823.36333
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -817.14092
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -820.78363

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =    -817.62  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -772.67852  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.66401  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.47035  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.46571  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.46571  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.46539  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.46539  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(69)     =     296.21
Log pseudolikelihood  = -764.46539              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   1.052836   .6898349     1.53   0.127     -.299215    2.404888
claim_ideol~y |    .963273   .3957194     2.43   0.015     .1876773    1.738869
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.523459   .8767255     2.88   0.004     .8051088    4.241809
  incomp_terr |   .0806502    .445004     0.18   0.856    -.7915416     .952842
rebstrength~a |   .9974471   .2451817     4.07   0.000     .5168998    1.477994
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0326553   .0340482    -0.96   0.338    -.0993886     .034078
 vdem_rescale |  -.0084413    .052706    -0.16   0.873    -.1117431    .0948605
vdem_rescal~q |   .0094484   .0079078     1.19   0.232    -.0060506    .0249474
 active_dyads |   .1900138   .1460288     1.30   0.193    -.0961973     .476225
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9376745   1.233369    -0.76   0.447    -3.355032    1.479683
        1952  |  -1.280018   1.430664    -0.89   0.371    -4.084067    1.524031
        1953  |    .266466    1.31021     0.20   0.839    -2.301498     2.83443
        1954  |  -3.627108   1.646973    -2.20   0.028    -6.855116   -.3991008
        1955  |   -1.38156   2.323959    -0.59   0.552    -5.936435    3.173315
        1956  |   -2.42833   2.296087    -1.06   0.290    -6.928578    2.071919
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.941285   1.861022    -1.04   0.297    -5.588821    1.706251
        1959  |  -2.429361   2.006158    -1.21   0.226    -6.361359    1.502637
        1960  |  -3.637793   1.591475    -2.29   0.022    -6.757027   -.5185597
        1961  |  -1.395973    1.53005    -0.91   0.362    -4.394816     1.60287
        1962  |  -.9643285   1.524471    -0.63   0.527    -3.952236    2.023579
        1963  |  -1.284673   1.532065    -0.84   0.402    -4.287465    1.718119
        1964  |  -1.865256   1.329974    -1.40   0.161    -4.471958    .7414462
        1965  |  -2.153307   1.408519    -1.53   0.126    -4.913954    .6073407
        1966  |  -2.086726   1.347682    -1.55   0.122    -4.728135    .5546833
        1967  |  -2.002602   1.283861    -1.56   0.119    -4.518924    .5137198
        1968  |  -2.312581   1.200712    -1.93   0.054    -4.665932    .0407712
        1969  |  -2.069147   1.278814    -1.62   0.106    -4.575577     .437282
        1970  |  -2.202845   1.241214    -1.77   0.076    -4.635579    .2298891
        1971  |  -1.270414   1.076743    -1.18   0.238    -3.380792    .8399644
        1972  |  -2.901062   1.278134    -2.27   0.023    -5.406159   -.3959658
        1973  |  -3.638019   1.383179    -2.63   0.009    -6.349001   -.9270377
        1974  |  -1.874003   1.352088    -1.39   0.166    -4.524046    .7760405
        1975  |  -1.704928   1.280595    -1.33   0.183    -4.214849    .8049927
        1976  |  -1.479977   1.265541    -1.17   0.242    -3.960392    1.000439
        1977  |  -1.725372   1.240942    -1.39   0.164    -4.157573    .7068294
        1978  |  -.5128369   1.277831    -0.40   0.688     -3.01734    1.991666
        1979  |   -2.14142   1.238372    -1.73   0.084    -4.568585    .2857442
        1980  |  -1.889159   1.233884    -1.53   0.126    -4.307528    .5292104
        1981  |  -2.001364   1.290411    -1.55   0.121    -4.530524    .5277963
        1982  |  -1.491457   1.228525    -1.21   0.225    -3.899321    .9164069
        1983  |  -1.691591   1.272005    -1.33   0.184    -4.184676    .8014938
        1984  |  -1.458873   1.231624    -1.18   0.236    -3.872812    .9550657
        1985  |   -1.70476   1.251796    -1.36   0.173    -4.158234    .7487146
        1986  |  -2.247104   1.268097    -1.77   0.076    -4.732529    .2383213
        1987  |  -1.887797   1.261417    -1.50   0.135    -4.360128    .5845354
        1988  |  -1.188385   1.249585    -0.95   0.342    -3.637527    1.260758
        1989  |  -2.869736   1.272222    -2.26   0.024    -5.363245   -.3762272
        1990  |  -2.582228   1.294037    -2.00   0.046    -5.118494   -.0459609
        1991  |  -2.828543   1.290273    -2.19   0.028    -5.357431   -.2996545
        1992  |  -2.083187   1.314456    -1.58   0.113    -4.659473    .4930996
        1993  |  -2.872753   1.322326    -2.17   0.030    -5.464464   -.2810411
        1994  |  -2.612418   1.390085    -1.88   0.060    -5.336934    .1120984
        1995  |  -2.721997   1.405766    -1.94   0.053    -5.477248    .0332533
        1996  |  -2.732923   1.339019    -2.04   0.041    -5.357353   -.1084934
        1997  |  -2.752055   1.316018    -2.09   0.037    -5.331403   -.1727059
        1998  |  -1.889326   1.309407    -1.44   0.149    -4.455716    .6770634
        1999  |  -1.912844   1.316754    -1.45   0.146    -4.493634    .6679458
        2000  |  -2.543919   1.331763    -1.91   0.056    -5.154126    .0662889
        2001  |  -3.282668    1.33697    -2.46   0.014    -5.903081   -.6622546
        2002  |  -2.195917   1.393937    -1.58   0.115    -4.927985    .5361498
        2003  |  -3.307958   1.581869    -2.09   0.037    -6.408364   -.2075515
        2004  |  -2.254503    1.43704    -1.57   0.117    -5.071051    .5620443
        2005  |  -3.039228   1.559009    -1.95   0.051    -6.094829     .016373
        2006  |  -4.130269   1.376791    -3.00   0.003     -6.82873   -1.431808
        2007  |  -3.831806   1.485113    -2.58   0.010    -6.742573   -.9210389
        2008  |  -3.678652   1.343309    -2.74   0.006     -6.31149   -1.045814
        2009  |  -3.160528   1.340759    -2.36   0.018    -5.788366   -.5326891
        2010  |  -3.877127   1.349327    -2.87   0.004    -6.521758   -1.232495
        2011  |    -3.7123   1.489314    -2.49   0.013    -6.631301   -.7932991
              |
        _cons |  -1.456208   1.386167    -1.05   0.293    -4.173047     1.26063
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.926047   .1999394                      1.534173    2.317921
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.619605   .2618811                      2.153483    3.186619
          rho |   .6759452   .0437954                      .5849981    .7552984
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads 
> post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2011.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1129.6884  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -982.14457  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -970.2929  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -970.10331  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -970.10306  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -970.10306  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -970.10306
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -922.40805
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -889.52495
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -865.37621
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -847.06887
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -833.38428
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -823.36333
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -817.14092
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -820.78363

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =    -817.62  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -772.67852  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.66401  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.47035  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.46571  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.46571  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.46539  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.46539  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(69)     =     296.21
Log pseudolikelihood  = -764.46539              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   1.052836   .6898349     1.53   0.127     -.299215    2.404888
claim_ideol~y |    .963273   .3957194     2.43   0.015     .1876773    1.738869
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.523459   .8767255     2.88   0.004     .8051088    4.241809
  incomp_terr |   .0806502    .445004     0.18   0.856    -.7915416     .952842
rebstrength~a |   .9974471   .2451817     4.07   0.000     .5168998    1.477994
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0326553   .0340482    -0.96   0.338    -.0993886     .034078
 vdem_rescale |  -.0084413    .052706    -0.16   0.873    -.1117431    .0948605
vdem_rescal~q |   .0094484   .0079078     1.19   0.232    -.0060506    .0249474
 active_dyads |   .1900138   .1460288     1.30   0.193    -.0961973     .476225
post_cold_war |    -3.7123   1.489314    -2.49   0.013    -6.631301   -.7932991
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9376745   1.233369    -0.76   0.447    -3.355032    1.479683
        1952  |  -1.280018   1.430664    -0.89   0.371    -4.084067    1.524031
        1953  |    .266466    1.31021     0.20   0.839    -2.301498     2.83443
        1954  |  -3.627108   1.646973    -2.20   0.028    -6.855116   -.3991008
        1955  |   -1.38156   2.323959    -0.59   0.552    -5.936435    3.173315
        1956  |   -2.42833   2.296087    -1.06   0.290    -6.928578    2.071919
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.941285   1.861022    -1.04   0.297    -5.588821    1.706251
        1959  |  -2.429361   2.006158    -1.21   0.226    -6.361359    1.502637
        1960  |  -3.637793   1.591475    -2.29   0.022    -6.757027   -.5185597
        1961  |  -1.395973    1.53005    -0.91   0.362    -4.394816     1.60287
        1962  |  -.9643285   1.524471    -0.63   0.527    -3.952236    2.023579
        1963  |  -1.284673   1.532065    -0.84   0.402    -4.287465    1.718119
        1964  |  -1.865256   1.329974    -1.40   0.161    -4.471958    .7414462
        1965  |  -2.153307   1.408519    -1.53   0.126    -4.913954    .6073407
        1966  |  -2.086726   1.347682    -1.55   0.122    -4.728135    .5546833
        1967  |  -2.002602   1.283861    -1.56   0.119    -4.518924    .5137198
        1968  |  -2.312581   1.200712    -1.93   0.054    -4.665932    .0407712
        1969  |  -2.069147   1.278814    -1.62   0.106    -4.575577     .437282
        1970  |  -2.202845   1.241214    -1.77   0.076    -4.635579    .2298891
        1971  |  -1.270414   1.076743    -1.18   0.238    -3.380792    .8399644
        1972  |  -2.901062   1.278134    -2.27   0.023    -5.406159   -.3959658
        1973  |  -3.638019   1.383179    -2.63   0.009    -6.349001   -.9270377
        1974  |  -1.874003   1.352088    -1.39   0.166    -4.524046    .7760405
        1975  |  -1.704928   1.280595    -1.33   0.183    -4.214849    .8049927
        1976  |  -1.479977   1.265541    -1.17   0.242    -3.960392    1.000439
        1977  |  -1.725372   1.240942    -1.39   0.164    -4.157573    .7068294
        1978  |  -.5128369   1.277831    -0.40   0.688     -3.01734    1.991666
        1979  |   -2.14142   1.238372    -1.73   0.084    -4.568585    .2857442
        1980  |  -1.889159   1.233884    -1.53   0.126    -4.307528    .5292104
        1981  |  -2.001364   1.290411    -1.55   0.121    -4.530524    .5277963
        1982  |  -1.491457   1.228525    -1.21   0.225    -3.899321    .9164069
        1983  |  -1.691591   1.272005    -1.33   0.184    -4.184676    .8014938
        1984  |  -1.458873   1.231624    -1.18   0.236    -3.872812    .9550657
        1985  |   -1.70476   1.251796    -1.36   0.173    -4.158234    .7487146
        1986  |  -2.247104   1.268097    -1.77   0.076    -4.732529    .2383213
        1987  |  -1.887797   1.261417    -1.50   0.135    -4.360128    .5845354
        1988  |  -1.188385   1.249585    -0.95   0.342    -3.637527    1.260758
        1989  |  -2.869736   1.272222    -2.26   0.024    -5.363245   -.3762272
        1990  |  -2.582228   1.294037    -2.00   0.046    -5.118494   -.0459609
        1991  |   .8837573   1.002509     0.88   0.378    -1.081124    2.848638
        1992  |   1.629113   1.002941     1.62   0.104    -.3366151    3.594842
        1993  |   .8395474   1.035035     0.81   0.417    -1.189084    2.868179
        1994  |   1.099882   1.094214     1.01   0.315    -1.044737    3.244502
        1995  |   .9903028   1.123099     0.88   0.378    -1.210931    3.191536
        1996  |   .9793768   1.066725     0.92   0.359    -1.111367     3.07012
        1997  |   .9602455   1.004742     0.96   0.339    -1.009013    2.929505
        1998  |   1.822974   .9812864     1.86   0.063    -.1003121     3.74626
        1999  |   1.799456   .9781273     1.84   0.066    -.1176384     3.71655
        2000  |   1.168381   .9856424     1.19   0.236    -.7634423    3.100205
        2001  |   .4296324   1.001337     0.43   0.668    -1.532951    2.392216
        2002  |   1.516383   1.034149     1.47   0.143    -.5105118    3.543277
        2003  |   .4043426   1.320046     0.31   0.759    -2.182901    2.991586
        2004  |   1.457797   1.151215     1.27   0.205    -.7985426    3.714136
        2005  |    .673072   1.206519     0.56   0.577    -1.691663    3.037807
        2006  |  -.4179688   .9605634    -0.44   0.663    -2.300639    1.464701
        2007  |  -.1195059   1.096954    -0.11   0.913    -2.269495    2.030484
        2008  |    .033648   .8139494     0.04   0.967    -1.561663    1.628959
        2009  |   .5517725   .9041217     0.61   0.542    -1.220273    2.323818
        2010  |  -.1648265   .8297009    -0.20   0.843     -1.79101    1.461357
        2011  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.456208   1.386167    -1.05   0.293    -4.173047     1.26063
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.926047   .1999394                      1.534173    2.317921
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.619605   .2618811                      2.153483    3.186619
          rho |   .6759452   .0437954                      .5849981    .7552984
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(c.rel_aff01 c.claim_ideology) rebel_
> ext_mil_support incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_res
> cale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2011.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1129.6884  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -977.78003  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -964.77352  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -964.52379  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -964.52356  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -964.52356  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -964.52356
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood =  -918.5718
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -886.68926
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -863.13351
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood =  -845.1987
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -831.61953
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood =  -821.4593
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -815.99521
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -819.20958

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -816.32835  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -771.37249  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -763.2633  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.07451  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -763.0665  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -763.0665  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.06421  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.06421  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(71)     =     345.14
Log pseudolikelihood  = -763.06421              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.535228   1.822843    -1.94   0.052    -7.107935    .0374796
    rel_aff01 |   .9467007   .7005282     1.35   0.177    -.4263093    2.319711
claim_ideol~y |   1.320124   .4906974     2.69   0.007     .3583748    2.281873
              |
post_cold_war#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |   .2885553   1.041191     0.28   0.782    -1.752141    2.329252
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.8561863   .6907177    -1.24   0.215    -2.209968    .4975955
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.511635   .8731387     2.88   0.004     .8003149    4.222956
  incomp_terr |   .0940654   .4436552     0.21   0.832    -.7754828    .9636135
rebstrength~a |   1.014295   .2438884     4.16   0.000     .5362829    1.492308
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0311011   .0340784    -0.91   0.361    -.0978935    .0356912
 vdem_rescale |  -.0086869   .0507618    -0.17   0.864    -.1081782    .0908045
vdem_rescal~q |   .0093044   .0078463     1.19   0.236    -.0060741    .0246829
 active_dyads |   .1824641   .1439837     1.27   0.205    -.0997388    .4646669
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9159924   1.227898    -0.75   0.456    -3.322628    1.490643
        1952  |  -1.255344   1.437427    -0.87   0.382    -4.072649    1.561961
        1953  |   .2444039   1.289117     0.19   0.850    -2.282218    2.771026
        1954  |  -3.747263   1.648468    -2.27   0.023      -6.9782   -.5163265
        1955  |  -1.470067    2.40894    -0.61   0.542    -6.191503    3.251368
        1956  |  -2.523695   2.330612    -1.08   0.279    -7.091611     2.04422
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -2.049851   1.880439    -1.09   0.276    -5.735445    1.635742
        1959  |  -2.513593   2.032881    -1.24   0.216    -6.497967    1.470781
        1960  |  -3.754538   1.584887    -2.37   0.018     -6.86086   -.6482159
        1961  |  -1.504905   1.529737    -0.98   0.325    -4.503134    1.493324
        1962  |  -1.090176   1.523151    -0.72   0.474    -4.075497    1.895145
        1963  |  -1.418599   1.523942    -0.93   0.352    -4.405471    1.568273
        1964  |  -1.991879   1.319833    -1.51   0.131    -4.578705    .5949467
        1965  |  -2.294848   1.393803    -1.65   0.100    -5.026651    .4369544
        1966  |  -2.223293   1.330698    -1.67   0.095    -4.831412    .3848272
        1967  |  -2.132164   1.263941    -1.69   0.092    -4.609443    .3451142
        1968  |  -2.444249   1.181984    -2.07   0.039    -4.760895   -.1276034
        1969  |  -2.204264    1.25505    -1.76   0.079    -4.664117    .2555895
        1970  |  -2.340329    1.21877    -1.92   0.055    -4.729074     .048416
        1971  |  -1.396629   1.057934    -1.32   0.187    -3.470142    .6768846
        1972  |  -3.039795   1.241793    -2.45   0.014    -5.473664   -.6059253
        1973  |  -3.804385   1.354945    -2.81   0.005    -6.460028   -1.148742
        1974  |  -2.008756   1.319752    -1.52   0.128    -4.595422    .5779092
        1975  |  -1.848166   1.250286    -1.48   0.139    -4.298683    .6023496
        1976  |  -1.618549   1.241625    -1.30   0.192    -4.052089    .8149906
        1977  |  -1.867607   1.216532    -1.54   0.125    -4.251965    .5167516
        1978  |  -.6535195   1.253239    -0.52   0.602    -3.109823    1.802784
        1979  |  -2.298902   1.213936    -1.89   0.058    -4.678172    .0803682
        1980  |   -2.04833   1.215086    -1.69   0.092    -4.429854     .333194
        1981  |   -2.16669   1.275245    -1.70   0.089    -4.666125    .3327452
        1982  |  -1.656756   1.207849    -1.37   0.170    -4.024097    .7105856
        1983  |  -1.855045   1.256422    -1.48   0.140    -4.317588     .607497
        1984  |  -1.625414    1.21636    -1.34   0.181    -4.009436    .7586078
        1985  |  -1.877226    1.22727    -1.53   0.126    -4.282631    .5281792
        1986  |  -2.410372   1.255625    -1.92   0.055    -4.871352    .0506076
        1987  |  -2.051915   1.243666    -1.65   0.099    -4.489456    .3856265
        1988  |  -1.359211   1.227157    -1.11   0.268    -3.764395    1.045973
        1989  |  -3.057942   1.252022    -2.44   0.015    -5.511861   -.6040228
        1990  |  -2.703644   1.276287    -2.12   0.034    -5.205121   -.2021683
        1991  |   .8898498   .9863213     0.90   0.367    -1.043304    2.823004
        1992  |   1.577262   1.002681     1.57   0.116    -.3879567    3.542481
        1993  |   .8035551   1.034633     0.78   0.437    -1.224289    2.831399
        1994  |   1.056923   1.098663     0.96   0.336    -1.096417    3.210264
        1995  |   .9668674   1.112312     0.87   0.385    -1.213225    3.146959
        1996  |   .9805415   1.054515     0.93   0.352     -1.08627    3.047353
        1997  |    .966103   1.002226     0.96   0.335    -.9982247    2.930431
        1998  |   1.822217   .9740358     1.87   0.061    -.0868577    3.731292
        1999  |   1.830669   .9660973     1.89   0.058    -.0628474    3.724184
        2000  |   1.178426   .9824566     1.20   0.230    -.7471534    3.104006
        2001  |   .4417333   .9956332     0.44   0.657    -1.509672    2.393138
        2002  |   1.527715    1.02166     1.50   0.135    -.4747012    3.530132
        2003  |   .4178623    1.30707     0.32   0.749    -2.143948    2.979673
        2004  |   1.469393   1.139498     1.29   0.197    -.7639829    3.702769
        2005  |   .6890355   1.199674     0.57   0.566    -1.662282    3.040353
        2006  |  -.4055822   .9467373    -0.43   0.668    -2.261153    1.449989
        2007  |  -.0938283   1.088828    -0.09   0.931    -2.227892    2.040235
        2008  |   .0403459    .802093     0.05   0.960    -1.531728    1.612419
        2009  |    .559509   .8954039     0.62   0.532     -1.19545    2.314468
        2010  |  -.1384994   .8182976    -0.17   0.866    -1.742333    1.465335
        2011  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.445354   1.391374    -1.04   0.299    -4.172398    1.281689
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.921992   .2037097                      1.522728    2.321256
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.614299    .266279                      2.141195    3.191937
          rho |   .6750564   .0446848                       .582217    .7559142
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr reb
> strength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime acti
> ve_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7258746.8  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =   -4533678  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3301860.9  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2104659.9  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1229517.8  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -745976.4  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -375258.62  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -362200.81  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -361987.25  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -361987.19  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -361987.19  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -264419.05  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5795.2225  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5749.6121  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5429.0233  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5427.6857  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5374.8643  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5332.8236  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5308.8283  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5308.1874  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -5308.183  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood =  -5308.183  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -77986.846  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -11162.799  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7289.1832  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6203.8901  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5391.2168  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5313.6365  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood =  -5269.016  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood =  -5179.292  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5103.4252  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5081.0547  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5079.9466  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -5079.9434  
Iteration 12:  log likelihood = -5079.9434  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        732
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        161

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.5
                                                              max =         22

                                                Wald chi2(33)     =      79.43
Log likelihood  = -5079.9434                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .2182289   .1938562     1.13   0.260    -.1617222      .59818
claim_ideol~y |  -.2408726   .1109303    -2.17   0.030    -.4582919   -.0234532
rebel_ext_m~t |   .6161806   .2855424     2.16   0.031     .0565278    1.175833
  incomp_terr |  -.2512592   .1159137    -2.17   0.030    -.4784459   -.0240724
rebstrength~a |   .1253869   .0786419     1.59   0.111    -.0287485    .2795222
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0121899   .0135472     0.90   0.368    -.0143621    .0387419
 vdem_rescale |   .0163261   .0113448     1.44   0.150    -.0059092    .0385615
vdem_rescal~q |   .0022281   .0021996     1.01   0.311     -.002083    .0065392
     rcd_loot |   .0321536   .0904056     0.36   0.722    -.1450381    .2093453
    rcd_crime |   .4105567   .0976638     4.20   0.000     .2191392    .6019743
 active_dyads |   .0132088   .0430845     0.31   0.759    -.0712354    .0976529
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000594   .0000132     4.50   0.000     .0000335    .0000853
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.1974356   .1734472    -1.14   0.255    -.5373858    .1425145
        1992  |   .1320505   .1734625     0.76   0.447    -.2079298    .4720308
        1993  |   -.046963   .1767569    -0.27   0.790    -.3934001    .2994742
        1994  |  -.0361168   .1758034    -0.21   0.837    -.3806851    .3084516
        1995  |  -.2438668    .182049    -1.34   0.180    -.6006763    .1129426
        1996  |   .0357692   .1873233     0.19   0.849    -.3313778    .4029162
        1997  |  -.0839977   .1900739    -0.44   0.659    -.4565356    .2885402
        1998  |  -.0651171   .1824904    -0.36   0.721    -.4227917    .2925576
        1999  |  -.0519729   .1815247    -0.29   0.775    -.4077548     .303809
        2000  |  -.0986487   .1833695    -0.54   0.591    -.4580464     .260749
        2001  |  -.3169089   .1840539    -1.72   0.085    -.6776479    .0438301
        2002  |   .0330251   .1785195     0.18   0.853    -.3168667    .3829169
        2003  |  -.3111982   .1923674    -1.62   0.106    -.6882313     .065835
        2004  |   -.137805   .1902829    -0.72   0.469    -.5107527    .2351427
        2005  |  -.1603838   .1996689    -0.80   0.422    -.5517276      .23096
        2006  |  -.2072168   .1934897    -1.07   0.284    -.5864496    .1720159
        2007  |  -.1038999   .1944394    -0.53   0.593    -.4849941    .2771943
        2008  |  -.1166533   .1901982    -0.61   0.540    -.4894349    .2561284
        2009  |  -.0943225   .1879445    -0.50   0.616    -.4626869    .2740419
        2010  |  -.3038861   .1966454    -1.55   0.122    -.6893039    .0815318
        2011  |  -.4051787   .2019487    -2.01   0.045    -.8009908   -.0093666
              |
        _cons |   .0881939   .3976802     0.22   0.824     -.691245    .8676328
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0874059   .1265172                     -.3353752    .1605633
        /ln_s |   4.494794   .2188463                      4.065864    4.923725
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9163051   .1159284                      .7150698    1.174172
            s |   89.54976   19.59763                      58.31525    137.5139
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 456.48               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr reb
> strength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime acti
> ve_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 49 groups (49 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -106185.97  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5157.7941  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4703.5604  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -4390.108  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4262.5232  (backed up)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4017.8984  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -3911.3545  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -3752.0582  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -3746.6384  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -3746.5901  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -3746.5901  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        683
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        112

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.1
                                                              max =         22

                                                Wald chi2(33)     =      93.25
Log likelihood  = -3746.5901                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .2614316   .2519585     1.04   0.299     -.232398    .7552612
claim_ideol~y |  -.4500023   .1420123    -3.17   0.002    -.7283412   -.1716633
rebel_ext_m~t |   .3648398   .3946204     0.92   0.355     -.408602    1.138282
  incomp_terr |  -.2477251   .1405861    -1.76   0.078    -.5232687    .0278186
rebstrength~a |  -.0280637   .0937557    -0.30   0.765    -.2118216    .1556941
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0212095   .0170154     1.25   0.213    -.0121401    .0545591
 vdem_rescale |   .0357403   .0128979     2.77   0.006      .010461    .0610197
vdem_rescal~q |   .0024064    .002404     1.00   0.317    -.0023054    .0071182
     rcd_loot |  -.0429105   .0972448    -0.44   0.659    -.2335068    .1476859
    rcd_crime |   .5258087   .1093856     4.81   0.000     .3114169    .7402006
 active_dyads |   .0377508   .0483351     0.78   0.435    -.0569841    .1324858
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000518   .0000153     3.40   0.001     .0000219    .0000817
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2412616   .1743581    -1.38   0.166    -.5829972    .1004741
        1992  |   .0618301   .1831618     0.34   0.736    -.2971604    .4208207
        1993  |  -.1773142   .1925012    -0.92   0.357    -.5546095    .1999812
        1994  |  -.1415133    .191544    -0.74   0.460    -.5169327     .233906
        1995  |  -.3518552   .1946826    -1.81   0.071    -.7334261    .0297157
        1996  |  -.1283119   .1996172    -0.64   0.520    -.5195544    .2629305
        1997  |  -.2752294   .2010771    -1.37   0.171    -.6693333    .1188745
        1998  |  -.2787496   .1958957    -1.42   0.155    -.6626982     .105199
        1999  |  -.2795233   .1972291    -1.42   0.156    -.6660852    .1070387
        2000  |  -.2666103   .1943547    -1.37   0.170    -.6475384    .1143179
        2001  |  -.4685004   .1934826    -2.42   0.015    -.8477194   -.0892814
        2002  |  -.1312324   .1869328    -0.70   0.483     -.497614    .2351491
        2003  |  -.4727278   .2009659    -2.35   0.019    -.8666137   -.0788419
        2004  |  -.2991818   .1962193    -1.52   0.127    -.6837645    .0854009
        2005  |  -.3435203    .206218    -1.67   0.096    -.7477002    .0606596
        2006  |  -.3850947   .2024813    -1.90   0.057    -.7819508    .0117614
        2007  |  -.2833583   .2042748    -1.39   0.165    -.6837296    .1170129
        2008  |  -.3254495   .2052907    -1.59   0.113    -.7278119    .0769129
        2009  |  -.2751139   .2016663    -1.36   0.173    -.6703727    .1201448
        2010  |   -.523269    .211878    -2.47   0.014    -.9385422   -.1079957
        2011  |  -.6644287   .2218112    -3.00   0.003    -1.099171   -.2296866
              |
        _cons |  -.0931168   .4887646    -0.19   0.849    -1.051078    .8648441
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
> **********

. 
. * Table A7-D. Determinants of Conflict Intensity – Types of Ideological Claims
>  – Monadic, NSA Data *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> **********

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support 
> incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_d
> yads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1129.6884  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -981.11784  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -968.96452  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -968.77233  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -968.7723  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -968.7723
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood =  -920.9951
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -888.20899
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -864.26208
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -846.16903
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -832.64502
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -822.84974
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -816.60087
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -819.90602

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.13243  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -772.60672  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.15062  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.97843  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.97187  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.97149  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.96762  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.96762  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(70)     =     319.88
Log pseudolikelihood  = -763.96762              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .9915038   .7016136     1.41   0.158    -.3836336    2.366641
Theologica..  |   2.369115   .8341613     2.84   0.005     .7341885    4.004041
              |
  claim_other |   .6518259   .4198138     1.55   0.121     -.170994    1.474646
rebel_ext_m~t |    2.54776    .865474     2.94   0.003     .8514623    4.244058
  incomp_terr |   .0305894   .4484756     0.07   0.946    -.8484066    .9095854
rebstrength~a |   1.005703   .2429656     4.14   0.000     .5294996    1.481907
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0296735   .0337304    -0.88   0.379    -.0957838    .0364368
 vdem_rescale |  -.0092531   .0530239    -0.17   0.861     -.113178    .0946718
vdem_rescal~q |   .0092022    .007952     1.16   0.247    -.0063834    .0247878
 active_dyads |   .1621882   .1451602     1.12   0.264    -.1223206     .446697
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9796154   1.227885    -0.80   0.425    -3.386226    1.426996
        1952  |  -1.329241   1.412351    -0.94   0.347    -4.097398    1.438916
        1953  |   .2260677   1.299458     0.17   0.862    -2.320823    2.772959
        1954  |  -3.537901   1.630795    -2.17   0.030    -6.734201   -.3416021
        1955  |  -1.342679   2.263284    -0.59   0.553    -5.778634    3.093276
        1956  |  -2.369992    2.26997    -1.04   0.296    -6.819052    2.079069
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.889892   1.842131    -1.03   0.305    -5.500402    1.720618
        1959  |  -2.384709   1.983665    -1.20   0.229    -6.272622    1.503203
        1960  |  -3.579079   1.591876    -2.25   0.025    -6.699099   -.4590596
        1961  |  -1.372567   1.525698    -0.90   0.368    -4.362881    1.617746
        1962  |  -.9147363   1.520044    -0.60   0.547    -3.893968    2.064495
        1963  |  -1.221612   1.529156    -0.80   0.424    -4.218702    1.775478
        1964  |  -1.819575   1.332734    -1.37   0.172    -4.431687    .7925361
        1965  |  -2.094809   1.411198    -1.48   0.138    -4.860707    .6710888
        1966  |  -2.035433   1.351548    -1.51   0.132    -4.684419    .6135535
        1967  |  -1.957932   1.291378    -1.52   0.129    -4.488986    .5731227
        1968  |  -2.271079   1.215002    -1.87   0.062    -4.652439    .1102807
        1969  |  -2.018321   1.289825    -1.56   0.118    -4.546332    .5096893
        1970  |  -2.151315   1.256153    -1.71   0.087     -4.61333    .3107003
        1971  |   -1.23638   1.086887    -1.14   0.255    -3.366639    .8938795
        1972  |  -2.868846   1.296424    -2.21   0.027    -5.409791   -.3279005
        1973  |  -3.589448   1.398841    -2.57   0.010    -6.331125   -.8477707
        1974  |  -1.851237   1.362613    -1.36   0.174     -4.52191    .8194351
        1975  |  -1.672912    1.29096    -1.30   0.195    -4.203147    .8573237
        1976  |  -1.446907   1.275516    -1.13   0.257    -3.946873    1.053059
        1977  |  -1.682911   1.250859    -1.35   0.178    -4.134549    .7687273
        1978  |  -.4725609   1.285656    -0.37   0.713      -2.9924    2.047278
        1979  |  -2.112918   1.247502    -1.69   0.090    -4.557977    .3321417
        1980  |  -1.869765   1.240977    -1.51   0.132    -4.302036    .5625056
        1981  |  -1.976776   1.292705    -1.53   0.126    -4.510432    .5568792
        1982  |  -1.471426   1.234925    -1.19   0.233    -3.891833    .9489818
        1983  |  -1.671586   1.273531    -1.31   0.189    -4.167661    .8244902
        1984  |  -1.435479   1.234836    -1.16   0.245    -3.855714    .9847559
        1985  |  -1.686041   1.253941    -1.34   0.179    -4.143719    .7716374
        1986  |  -2.232581   1.274789    -1.75   0.080    -4.731121    .2659598
        1987  |  -1.875013   1.264867    -1.48   0.138    -4.354107    .6040802
        1988  |  -1.173047   1.257647    -0.93   0.351    -3.637989    1.291895
        1989  |  -2.874598   1.281029    -2.24   0.025    -5.385368    -.363828
        1990  |  -2.576541   1.303339    -1.98   0.048    -5.131038   -.0220444
        1991  |   -2.83185   1.298221    -2.18   0.029    -5.376317   -.2873832
        1992  |  -2.101313   1.322558    -1.59   0.112    -4.693479    .4908525
        1993  |  -2.907038   1.329587    -2.19   0.029     -5.51298   -.3010964
        1994  |  -2.639496   1.397166    -1.89   0.059     -5.37789    .0988989
        1995  |  -2.745243   1.415794    -1.94   0.052    -5.520149    .0296621
        1996  |  -2.754373   1.351561    -2.04   0.042    -5.403384   -.1053627
        1997  |  -2.786323   1.321742    -2.11   0.035    -5.376888   -.1957567
        1998  |  -1.939764   1.317613    -1.47   0.141    -4.522237    .6427091
        1999  |  -1.980003   1.330303    -1.49   0.137    -4.587349    .6273441
        2000  |  -2.598075   1.342713    -1.93   0.053    -5.229743    .0335938
        2001  |  -3.332901   1.348859    -2.47   0.013    -5.976616   -.6891853
        2002  |  -2.248376   1.407961    -1.60   0.110    -5.007929    .5111771
        2003  |  -3.374274   1.594879    -2.12   0.034    -6.500179   -.2483691
        2004  |  -2.346454   1.454757    -1.61   0.107    -5.197725     .504817
        2005  |   -3.11653   1.570716    -1.98   0.047    -6.195078   -.0379832
        2006  |  -4.210727   1.386205    -3.04   0.002    -6.927639   -1.493815
        2007  |  -3.937151   1.494366    -2.63   0.008    -6.866055   -1.008247
        2008  |   -3.77541   1.350042    -2.80   0.005    -6.421445   -1.129376
        2009  |  -3.248551   1.350105    -2.41   0.016    -5.894709   -.6023927
        2010  |  -3.981686   1.343928    -2.96   0.003    -6.615737   -1.347636
        2011  |  -3.782117   1.490401    -2.54   0.011     -6.70325   -.8609837
              |
        _cons |  -1.326723   1.391039    -0.95   0.340    -4.053109    1.399664
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.911321   .1974103                      1.524404    2.298238
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.600388   .2566716                       2.14299    3.155412
          rho |   .6727113    .043464                      .5826245    .7516423
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support 
> incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_d
> yads post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2011.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1129.6884  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -981.11784  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -968.96452  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -968.77233  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -968.7723  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -968.7723
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood =  -920.9951
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -888.20899
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -864.26208
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -846.16903
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -832.64502
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -822.84974
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -816.60087
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -819.90602

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.13243  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -772.60672  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.15062  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.97843  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.97187  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.97149  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.96762  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.96762  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(70)     =     319.88
Log pseudolikelihood  = -763.96762              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .9915038   .7016136     1.41   0.158    -.3836336    2.366641
Theologica..  |   2.369115   .8341613     2.84   0.005     .7341885    4.004041
              |
  claim_other |   .6518259   .4198138     1.55   0.121     -.170994    1.474646
rebel_ext_m~t |    2.54776    .865474     2.94   0.003     .8514623    4.244058
  incomp_terr |   .0305894   .4484756     0.07   0.946    -.8484066    .9095854
rebstrength~a |   1.005703   .2429656     4.14   0.000     .5294996    1.481907
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0296735   .0337304    -0.88   0.379    -.0957838    .0364368
 vdem_rescale |  -.0092531   .0530239    -0.17   0.861     -.113178    .0946718
vdem_rescal~q |   .0092022    .007952     1.16   0.247    -.0063834    .0247878
 active_dyads |   .1621882   .1451602     1.12   0.264    -.1223206     .446697
post_cold_war |  -3.782117   1.490401    -2.54   0.011     -6.70325   -.8609837
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9796154   1.227885    -0.80   0.425    -3.386226    1.426996
        1952  |  -1.329241   1.412351    -0.94   0.347    -4.097398    1.438916
        1953  |   .2260677   1.299458     0.17   0.862    -2.320823    2.772959
        1954  |  -3.537901   1.630795    -2.17   0.030    -6.734201   -.3416021
        1955  |  -1.342679   2.263284    -0.59   0.553    -5.778634    3.093276
        1956  |  -2.369992    2.26997    -1.04   0.296    -6.819052    2.079069
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.889892   1.842131    -1.03   0.305    -5.500402    1.720618
        1959  |  -2.384709   1.983665    -1.20   0.229    -6.272622    1.503203
        1960  |  -3.579079   1.591876    -2.25   0.025    -6.699099   -.4590596
        1961  |  -1.372567   1.525698    -0.90   0.368    -4.362881    1.617746
        1962  |  -.9147363   1.520044    -0.60   0.547    -3.893968    2.064495
        1963  |  -1.221612   1.529156    -0.80   0.424    -4.218702    1.775478
        1964  |  -1.819575   1.332734    -1.37   0.172    -4.431687    .7925361
        1965  |  -2.094809   1.411198    -1.48   0.138    -4.860707    .6710888
        1966  |  -2.035433   1.351548    -1.51   0.132    -4.684419    .6135535
        1967  |  -1.957932   1.291378    -1.52   0.129    -4.488986    .5731227
        1968  |  -2.271079   1.215002    -1.87   0.062    -4.652439    .1102807
        1969  |  -2.018321   1.289825    -1.56   0.118    -4.546332    .5096893
        1970  |  -2.151315   1.256153    -1.71   0.087     -4.61333    .3107003
        1971  |   -1.23638   1.086887    -1.14   0.255    -3.366639    .8938795
        1972  |  -2.868846   1.296424    -2.21   0.027    -5.409791   -.3279005
        1973  |  -3.589448   1.398841    -2.57   0.010    -6.331125   -.8477707
        1974  |  -1.851237   1.362613    -1.36   0.174     -4.52191    .8194351
        1975  |  -1.672912    1.29096    -1.30   0.195    -4.203147    .8573237
        1976  |  -1.446907   1.275516    -1.13   0.257    -3.946873    1.053059
        1977  |  -1.682911   1.250859    -1.35   0.178    -4.134549    .7687273
        1978  |  -.4725609   1.285656    -0.37   0.713      -2.9924    2.047278
        1979  |  -2.112918   1.247502    -1.69   0.090    -4.557977    .3321417
        1980  |  -1.869765   1.240977    -1.51   0.132    -4.302036    .5625056
        1981  |  -1.976776   1.292705    -1.53   0.126    -4.510432    .5568792
        1982  |  -1.471426   1.234925    -1.19   0.233    -3.891833    .9489818
        1983  |  -1.671586   1.273531    -1.31   0.189    -4.167661    .8244902
        1984  |  -1.435479   1.234836    -1.16   0.245    -3.855714    .9847559
        1985  |  -1.686041   1.253941    -1.34   0.179    -4.143719    .7716374
        1986  |  -2.232581   1.274789    -1.75   0.080    -4.731121    .2659598
        1987  |  -1.875013   1.264867    -1.48   0.138    -4.354107    .6040802
        1988  |  -1.173047   1.257647    -0.93   0.351    -3.637989    1.291895
        1989  |  -2.874598   1.281029    -2.24   0.025    -5.385368    -.363828
        1990  |  -2.576541   1.303339    -1.98   0.048    -5.131038   -.0220444
        1991  |   .9502665   .9967929     0.95   0.340    -1.003412    2.903945
        1992  |   1.680803   .9944404     1.69   0.091    -.2682642    3.629871
        1993  |   .8750786   1.026551     0.85   0.394    -1.136925    2.887082
        1994  |   1.142621   1.087081     1.05   0.293    -.9880194    3.273261
        1995  |   1.036873   1.121453     0.92   0.355    -1.161134    3.234881
        1996  |   1.027743   1.064427     0.97   0.334    -1.058496    3.113982
        1997  |   .9957941    1.00026     1.00   0.319      -.96468    2.956268
        1998  |   1.842353   .9784017     1.88   0.060    -.0752794    3.759985
        1999  |   1.802114    .976178     1.85   0.065    -.1111596    3.715388
        2000  |   1.184042   .9813924     1.21   0.228    -.7394517    3.107536
        2001  |    .449216   1.004667     0.45   0.655    -1.519896    2.418328
        2002  |   1.533741   1.028494     1.49   0.136    -.4820707    3.549552
        2003  |   .4078427   1.318255     0.31   0.757     -2.17589    2.991575
        2004  |   1.435663   1.152749     1.25   0.213    -.8236835    3.695009
        2005  |   .6655862   1.211038     0.55   0.583    -1.708006    3.039178
        2006  |  -.4286102   .9700788    -0.44   0.659     -2.32993    1.472709
        2007  |  -.1550344   1.108019    -0.14   0.889    -2.326711    2.016643
        2008  |   .0067063   .8240735     0.01   0.994    -1.608448    1.621861
        2009  |   .5335661    .913704     0.58   0.559    -1.257261    2.324393
        2010  |  -.1995696   .8346491    -0.24   0.811    -1.835452    1.436313
        2011  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.326723   1.391039    -0.95   0.340    -4.053109    1.399664
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.911321   .1974103                      1.524404    2.298238
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.600388   .2566716                       2.14299    3.155412
          rho |   .6727113    .043464                      .5826245    .7516423
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.rel_claim_types c.claim_other) reb
> el_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_
> rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2011.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1129.6884  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -974.42035  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -960.72099  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -960.44527  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -960.44503  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -960.44503  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -960.44503
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -915.03816
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood =  -883.6516
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -860.52335
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -842.94561
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -829.61318
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -819.69201
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -814.47602
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -817.35745

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -814.68758  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -769.94696  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -761.20083  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -761.01707  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -761.01001  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -761.00981  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -761.00612  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -761.00612  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(73)     =     396.64
Log pseudolikelihood  = -761.00612              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.576008   1.815681    -1.97   0.049    -7.134677   -.0173396
              |
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .8256552   .7088784     1.16   0.244    -.5637209    2.215031
Theologica..  |   3.367843   1.050734     3.21   0.001     1.308442    5.427243
              |
  claim_other |    .986378    .505165     1.95   0.051    -.0037272    1.976483
              |
post_cold_war#|
rel_claim_t~s |
           1 #|
Religious ..  |   .3733469   1.027452     0.36   0.716    -1.640422    2.387115
           1 #|
Theologica..  |  -1.402754   1.249389    -1.12   0.262    -3.851512    1.046004
              |
post_cold_war#|
c.claim_other |
           1  |  -.8710781   .7696188    -1.13   0.258    -2.379503     .637347
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.532038   .8492304     2.98   0.003      .867577    4.196499
  incomp_terr |   .0401975   .4479606     0.09   0.928    -.8377891    .9181841
rebstrength~a |   1.042581   .2450863     4.25   0.000      .562221    1.522942
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0271188   .0334691    -0.81   0.418     -.092717    .0384795
 vdem_rescale |   -.007592   .0514931    -0.15   0.883    -.1085167    .0933327
vdem_rescal~q |   .0088735   .0078381     1.13   0.258    -.0064889    .0242359
 active_dyads |   .0874062   .1346814     0.65   0.516    -.1765645     .351377
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9779726   1.209264    -0.81   0.419    -3.348086    1.392141
        1952  |  -1.323685   1.402656    -0.94   0.345     -4.07284     1.42547
        1953  |   .1267201   1.245582     0.10   0.919    -2.314576    2.568016
        1954  |  -3.676924   1.623074    -2.27   0.023    -6.858091   -.4957571
        1955  |  -1.457557   2.345569    -0.62   0.534    -6.054789    3.139674
        1956  |  -2.493107   2.301885    -1.08   0.279    -7.004718    2.018504
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -2.037128   1.856547    -1.10   0.273    -5.675894    1.601638
        1959  |  -2.499437   2.008779    -1.24   0.213     -6.43657    1.437697
        1960  |  -3.702389   1.587145    -2.33   0.020    -6.813136   -.5916417
        1961  |  -1.511123   1.521856    -0.99   0.321    -4.493906    1.471661
        1962  |  -1.054221   1.516241    -0.70   0.487    -4.025999    1.917557
        1963  |  -1.355486   1.516986    -0.89   0.372    -4.328724    1.617751
        1964  |  -1.957345   1.318478    -1.48   0.138    -4.541514    .6268238
        1965  |  -2.244399    1.38913    -1.62   0.106    -4.967044    .4782452
        1966  |  -2.175316   1.328271    -1.64   0.101    -4.778679    .4280474
        1967  |  -2.094401   1.264847    -1.66   0.098    -4.573456    .3846548
        1968  |  -2.412427   1.184355    -2.04   0.042     -4.73372    -.091134
        1969  |  -2.146421   1.252846    -1.71   0.087    -4.601955    .3091126
        1970  |  -2.276285   1.221991    -1.86   0.062    -4.671343    .1187735
        1971  |  -1.362521   1.062496    -1.28   0.200    -3.444975    .7199332
        1972  |  -3.020599   1.248319    -2.42   0.016    -5.467259   -.5739386
        1973  |  -3.764974   1.354075    -2.78   0.005    -6.418913   -1.111035
        1974  |  -1.996976   1.319162    -1.51   0.130    -4.582486    .5885346
        1975  |  -1.818657   1.249822    -1.46   0.146    -4.268262     .630949
        1976  |  -1.591282   1.243767    -1.28   0.201    -4.029021    .8464564
        1977  |  -1.814118   1.216917    -1.49   0.136    -4.199231    .5709943
        1978  |  -.6113862   1.253379    -0.49   0.626    -3.067964    1.845191
        1979  |  -2.290922    1.21656    -1.88   0.060    -4.675335    .0934915
        1980  |   -2.06711   1.216634    -1.70   0.089    -4.451669    .3174496
        1981  |   -2.16811   1.274866    -1.70   0.089    -4.666801    .3305805
        1982  |  -1.655832   1.205738    -1.37   0.170    -4.019035    .7073702
        1983  |  -1.850834   1.251951    -1.48   0.139    -4.304612    .6029444
        1984  |  -1.601812   1.210972    -1.32   0.186    -3.975273    .7716498
        1985  |   -1.87039   1.221368    -1.53   0.126    -4.264227     .523448
        1986  |  -2.413212   1.253569    -1.93   0.054    -4.870162    .0437382
        1987  |  -2.058309   1.242387    -1.66   0.098    -4.493342    .3767248
        1988  |  -1.373264   1.228349    -1.12   0.264    -3.780783    1.034255
        1989  |  -3.147038   1.269174    -2.48   0.013    -5.634574   -.6595019
        1990  |  -2.761953   1.296813    -2.13   0.033     -5.30366   -.2202469
        1991  |   .9744278   .9833899     0.99   0.322    -.9529809    2.901837
        1992  |    1.62166   .9870704     1.64   0.100    -.3129625    3.556282
        1993  |   .8210444   1.021346     0.80   0.421    -1.180758    2.822846
        1994  |   1.079832   1.077104     1.00   0.316    -1.031252    3.190917
        1995  |   1.005265   1.095428     0.92   0.359    -1.141735    3.152265
        1996  |   1.036492    1.04002     1.00   0.319     -1.00191    3.074894
        1997  |   .9800108    .991872     0.99   0.323    -.9640226    2.924044
        1998  |   1.824222   .9665981     1.89   0.059    -.0702752     3.71872
        1999  |   1.805951   .9529732     1.90   0.058    -.0618424    3.673744
        2000  |   1.169735   .9810444     1.19   0.233    -.7530771    3.092546
        2001  |   .4292424   1.001758     0.43   0.668    -1.534168    2.392653
        2002  |   1.526944   1.018238     1.50   0.134    -.4687659    3.522654
        2003  |   .4097812   1.299458     0.32   0.752     -2.13711    2.956672
        2004  |   1.436281   1.138638     1.26   0.207    -.7954096    3.667971
        2005  |   .6531206   1.201652     0.54   0.587    -1.702074    3.008315
        2006  |  -.4295448   .9606062    -0.45   0.655    -2.312298    1.453209
        2007  |  -.1446357   1.100959    -0.13   0.895    -2.302477    2.013205
        2008  |  -.0110576   .8146587    -0.01   0.989    -1.607759    1.585644
        2009  |   .5103963    .904652     0.56   0.573    -1.262689    2.283482
        2010  |   -.191579    .823327    -0.23   0.816     -1.80527    1.422112
        2011  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.181803   1.384417    -0.85   0.393    -3.895211    1.531605
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.913006    .201277                      1.518511    2.307502
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |    2.60258   .2619197                      2.136684    3.170061
          rho |   .6730822   .0442895                      .5811907    .7533676
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_ter
> r rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime
>  active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7196895.7  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4748562.8  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3422314.7  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =   -1725555  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -884215.89  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -573293.72  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -365949.37  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -356222.42  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -356069.37  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -356069.34  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -264419.05  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5795.2225  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5749.6121  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5429.0233  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5427.6857  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5374.8511  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5335.8042  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -5301.827  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5300.7155  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -5300.708  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood =  -5300.708  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -77081.707  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10813.681  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7293.0088  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6129.8027  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5425.1686  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5265.6493  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5230.5048  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5113.6115  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5085.9264  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5076.2826  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5076.2171  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -5076.2171  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        732
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        161

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.5
                                                              max =         22

                                                Wald chi2(34)     =      87.66
Log likelihood  = -5076.2171                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .1471751   .1950594     0.75   0.451    -.2351343    .5294845
Theologica..  |   .0824352   .2106624     0.39   0.696    -.3304555    .4953258
              |
  claim_other |   -.384145   .1198079    -3.21   0.001    -.6189641   -.1493258
rebel_ext_m~t |   .6149201   .2838728     2.17   0.030     .0585397      1.1713
  incomp_terr |  -.3093221   .1164194    -2.66   0.008    -.5374998   -.0811443
rebstrength~a |   .1440567   .0777259     1.85   0.064    -.0082832    .2963967
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0153276   .0135946     1.13   0.260    -.0113174    .0419727
 vdem_rescale |    .016494   .0113093     1.46   0.145    -.0056719    .0386599
vdem_rescal~q |   .0026827   .0021599     1.24   0.214    -.0015507    .0069161
     rcd_loot |   .0434559   .0896407     0.48   0.628    -.1322366    .2191484
    rcd_crime |   .4507903   .0981696     4.59   0.000     .2583814    .6431991
 active_dyads |  -.0078814   .0439403    -0.18   0.858    -.0940028    .0782401
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000626   .0000133     4.71   0.000     .0000366    .0000886
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2058043   .1749163    -1.18   0.239     -.548634    .1370255
        1992  |   .1229604   .1746915     0.70   0.482    -.2194286    .4653493
        1993  |  -.0319607   .1770433    -0.18   0.857    -.3789591    .3150377
        1994  |  -.0626206   .1768751    -0.35   0.723    -.4092894    .2840481
        1995  |  -.2556195   .1821712    -1.40   0.161    -.6126686    .1014296
        1996  |  -.0035995   .1886378    -0.02   0.985    -.3733228    .3661238
        1997  |  -.0920763   .1908185    -0.48   0.629    -.4660737    .2819212
        1998  |  -.0758112   .1830112    -0.41   0.679    -.4345065    .2828842
        1999  |  -.0569293   .1821418    -0.31   0.755    -.4139206     .300062
        2000  |  -.1136298   .1840445    -0.62   0.537    -.4743504    .2470907
        2001  |  -.3471529   .1854111    -1.87   0.061    -.7105521    .0162462
        2002  |   .0195855   .1791913     0.11   0.913    -.3316231    .3707941
        2003  |  -.3054611   .1921284    -1.59   0.112    -.6820258    .0711035
        2004  |  -.1673225   .1911768    -0.88   0.381    -.5420222    .2073772
        2005  |  -.2096945   .2006575    -1.05   0.296     -.602976    .1835869
        2006  |  -.2192375   .1936606    -1.13   0.258    -.5988052    .1603303
        2007  |  -.1264588    .194575    -0.65   0.516    -.5078187    .2549012
        2008  |  -.1361323     .18981    -0.72   0.473    -.5081532    .2358885
        2009  |  -.1051906   .1871216    -0.56   0.574    -.4719422     .261561
        2010  |  -.3451513   .1966937    -1.75   0.079    -.7306638    .0403612
        2011  |  -.4535147   .2019832    -2.25   0.025    -.8493945   -.0576348
              |
        _cons |   .1378141   .3985968     0.35   0.730    -.6434213    .9190496
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0471248   .1284455                     -.2988733    .2046238
        /ln_s |   4.580135    .219356                      4.150205    5.010065
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9539684   .1225329                      .7416534    1.227063
            s |   97.52756   21.39326                      63.44701    149.9145
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 448.98               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_ter
> r rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime
>  active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 49 groups (49 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -243566.77  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -8473.3125  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6840.4574  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5876.6663  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5176.4772  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4917.6045  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4445.0835  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4179.7644  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4046.9907  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -3844.8448  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -3749.4135  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -3745.6707  
Iteration 12:  log likelihood = -3745.6667  
Iteration 13:  log likelihood = -3745.6667  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        683
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        112

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.1
                                                              max =         22

                                                Wald chi2(34)     =      95.82
Log likelihood  = -3745.6667                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .2215234   .2524503     0.88   0.380      -.27327    .7163168
Theologica..  |  -.0730459   .2618543    -0.28   0.780    -.5862708     .440179
              |
  claim_other |   -.541562   .1587981    -3.41   0.001    -.8528005   -.2303234
rebel_ext_m~t |   .3416839   .3979635     0.86   0.391    -.4383102    1.121678
  incomp_terr |  -.2733757   .1409195    -1.94   0.052    -.5495729    .0028215
rebstrength~a |   -.001003   .0945057    -0.01   0.992    -.1862308    .1842247
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0237757   .0171604     1.39   0.166    -.0098582    .0574095
 vdem_rescale |   .0363948   .0128524     2.83   0.005     .0112045     .061585
vdem_rescal~q |   .0028512   .0023753     1.20   0.230    -.0018042    .0075067
     rcd_loot |  -.0271481    .097136    -0.28   0.780    -.2175312    .1632349
    rcd_crime |   .5459451   .1097564     4.97   0.000     .3308265    .7610636
 active_dyads |    .018889   .0496626     0.38   0.704     -.078448     .116226
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000538   .0000154     3.49   0.000     .0000236     .000084
              |
         year |
        1991  |   -.250822    .176196    -1.42   0.155    -.5961599    .0945159
        1992  |   .0525629   .1855266     0.28   0.777    -.3110625    .4161883
        1993  |   -.168691   .1943969    -0.87   0.386    -.5497019    .2123199
        1994  |  -.1580592   .1932116    -0.82   0.413    -.5367469    .2206286
        1995  |   -.361194   .1958263    -1.84   0.065    -.7450064    .0226185
        1996  |  -.1484948   .2014981    -0.74   0.461    -.5434238    .2464342
        1997  |  -.2768983   .2025463    -1.37   0.172    -.6738818    .1200852
        1998  |  -.2873511   .1974741    -1.46   0.146    -.6743932     .099691
        1999  |  -.2869751   .1990596    -1.44   0.149    -.6771248    .1031745
        2000  |  -.2721156   .1958136    -1.39   0.165    -.6559032    .1116719
        2001  |  -.4851042   .1955577    -2.48   0.013    -.8683903   -.1018181
        2002  |  -.1385278   .1884714    -0.74   0.462     -.507925    .2308694
        2003  |  -.4637824   .2017469    -2.30   0.022    -.8591991   -.0683658
        2004  |  -.3188731   .1980094    -1.61   0.107    -.7069643    .0692182
        2005  |  -.3836733   .2085092    -1.84   0.066    -.7923438    .0249971
        2006  |  -.3920306   .2035911    -1.93   0.054    -.7910618    .0070006
        2007  |  -.3001444   .2054946    -1.46   0.144    -.7029065    .1026176
        2008  |  -.3390741   .2060419    -1.65   0.100    -.7429089    .0647606
        2009  |  -.2854547   .2021144    -1.41   0.158    -.6815917    .1106823
        2010  |  -.5495797   .2130288    -2.58   0.010    -.9671084    -.132051
        2011  |  -.6856301   .2222652    -3.08   0.002    -1.121262   -.2499983
              |
        _cons |  -.0720591   .4920259    -0.15   0.884    -1.036412    .8922939
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ******************

. 
. * Table A8-D. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Specific Types of Ideologic
> al Claim – Monadic, NSA Data *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ******************

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist cl
> aim_libdem rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem
> _rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(rob
> ust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1129.6884  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -973.14397  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -959.80769  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -959.6083  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -959.60826  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -959.60826
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -914.08445
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -882.79544
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -859.91633
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood =  -842.5414
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -829.55866
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -820.97714
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -815.91124
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -819.17551

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -815.2581  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -772.20202  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.74636  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56998  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -763.5643  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56418  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56127  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56127  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(73)     =     325.05
Log pseudolikelihood  = -763.56127              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .8410745   .5655284     1.49   0.137    -.2673408     1.94949
Christian-~l  |   1.364522   1.046297     1.30   0.192     -.686183    3.415227
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .7532956   .5753462     1.31   0.190    -.3743622    1.880953
Muslim-The~l  |   2.096308   .7195685     2.91   0.004     .6859802    3.506637
              |
claim_commu~t |   .8539028   .5051372     1.69   0.091    -.1361478    1.843953
 claim_libdem |   .1317748    .592886     0.22   0.824     -1.03026     1.29381
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.542345    .879325     2.89   0.004     .8188996     4.26579
  incomp_terr |   .0933406   .4485749     0.21   0.835    -.7858499    .9725312
rebstrength~a |   .9703634   .2405217     4.03   0.000     .4989496    1.441777
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0331432   .0335496    -0.99   0.323    -.0988993    .0326129
 vdem_rescale |  -.0133817    .054347    -0.25   0.806    -.1198999    .0931365
vdem_rescal~q |   .0096376   .0079596     1.21   0.226    -.0059629    .0252382
 active_dyads |   .1572466    .145264     1.08   0.279    -.1274655    .4419588
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9576723   1.217259    -0.79   0.431    -3.343456    1.428112
        1952  |  -1.279006   1.404289    -0.91   0.362    -4.031361     1.47335
        1953  |   .2131614   1.288549     0.17   0.869    -2.312348    2.738671
        1954  |  -3.596058   1.616553    -2.22   0.026    -6.764445   -.4276715
        1955  |  -1.389095   2.334363    -0.60   0.552    -5.964362    3.186172
        1956  |  -2.382586   2.288003    -1.04   0.298     -6.86699    2.101819
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.986255   1.834868    -1.08   0.279    -5.582531    1.610021
        1959  |  -2.379636   1.976813    -1.20   0.229    -6.254118    1.494846
        1960  |  -3.576476   1.579171    -2.26   0.024    -6.671594   -.4813579
        1961  |  -1.380045   1.518925    -0.91   0.364    -4.357082    1.596993
        1962  |  -.9295195    1.51452    -0.61   0.539    -3.897925    2.038886
        1963  |  -1.211009   1.519564    -0.80   0.425      -4.1893    1.767281
        1964  |  -1.892159   1.326144    -1.43   0.154    -4.491354    .7070352
        1965  |  -2.184579   1.395272    -1.57   0.117    -4.919263    .5501044
        1966  |  -2.066735   1.333728    -1.55   0.121    -4.680794    .5473242
        1967  |  -2.022116   1.277111    -1.58   0.113    -4.525207    .4809762
        1968  |  -2.324225   1.201027    -1.94   0.053    -4.678195    .0297451
        1969  |   -2.06173   1.272344    -1.62   0.105    -4.555477    .4320183
        1970  |  -2.194978   1.240997    -1.77   0.077    -4.627288    .2373315
        1971  |  -1.296255   1.087228    -1.19   0.233    -3.427182    .8346713
        1972  |  -2.939122   1.278854    -2.30   0.022    -5.445629   -.4326155
        1973  |  -3.632931   1.382029    -2.63   0.009    -6.341658   -.9242035
        1974  |  -1.924507   1.342559    -1.43   0.152    -4.555874    .7068611
        1975  |  -1.752914    1.27288    -1.38   0.168    -4.247713    .7418849
        1976  |  -1.541203   1.271083    -1.21   0.225     -4.03248    .9500738
        1977  |  -1.772378   1.248425    -1.42   0.156    -4.219247    .6744901
        1978  |  -.5546143   1.277393    -0.43   0.664    -3.058258    1.949029
        1979  |  -2.207614   1.246276    -1.77   0.076    -4.650271    .2350433
        1980  |  -1.938742   1.238996    -1.56   0.118    -4.367129    .4896455
        1981  |  -2.052936   1.290794    -1.59   0.112    -4.582846    .4769736
        1982  |  -1.542209   1.226512    -1.26   0.209    -3.946128    .8617106
        1983  |  -1.731328   1.271228    -1.36   0.173    -4.222888    .7602326
        1984  |  -1.490475   1.235423    -1.21   0.228    -3.911859    .9309096
        1985  |  -1.733404   1.251245    -1.39   0.166      -4.1858    .7189908
        1986  |  -2.279138   1.269369    -1.80   0.073    -4.767056    .2087791
        1987  |  -1.899834   1.259769    -1.51   0.132    -4.368937    .5692679
        1988  |  -1.185671   1.250506    -0.95   0.343    -3.636618    1.265276
        1989  |  -2.898185   1.279646    -2.26   0.024    -5.406245   -.3901248
        1990  |   -2.58799   1.303175    -1.99   0.047    -5.142165   -.0338143
        1991  |  -2.862114   1.293837    -2.21   0.027    -5.397989     -.32624
        1992  |  -2.111257   1.318156    -1.60   0.109    -4.694796    .4722814
        1993  |  -2.926619   1.320447    -2.22   0.027    -5.514648   -.3385891
        1994  |  -2.657319   1.385048    -1.92   0.055    -5.371964    .0573261
        1995  |  -2.753766   1.398267    -1.97   0.049    -5.494318   -.0132135
        1996  |  -2.756022   1.333239    -2.07   0.039    -5.369123   -.1429205
        1997  |  -2.770652    1.30468    -2.12   0.034    -5.327778   -.2135256
        1998  |  -1.926109    1.30145    -1.48   0.139    -4.476904    .6246862
        1999  |  -1.967488   1.311383    -1.50   0.134    -4.537751    .6027742
        2000  |  -2.598455   1.321718    -1.97   0.049    -5.188973   -.0079359
        2001  |  -3.330678   1.351626    -2.46   0.014    -5.979816   -.6815409
        2002  |  -2.232491    1.39464    -1.60   0.109    -4.965935    .5009534
        2003  |  -3.367447   1.575909    -2.14   0.033    -6.456172   -.2787213
        2004  |  -2.366514   1.438463    -1.65   0.100     -5.18585    .4528229
        2005  |  -3.117757   1.557593    -2.00   0.045    -6.170582   -.0649314
        2006  |  -4.190072   1.393172    -3.01   0.003    -6.920639   -1.459505
        2007  |  -3.913467   1.499694    -2.61   0.009    -6.852812   -.9741212
        2008  |  -3.755584   1.349822    -2.78   0.005    -6.401186   -1.109983
        2009  |  -3.244908   1.354012    -2.40   0.017    -5.898722   -.5910941
        2010  |  -3.963966   1.332133    -2.98   0.003    -6.574899   -1.353032
        2011  |   -3.75074   1.478988    -2.54   0.011    -6.649503   -.8519765
              |
        _cons |  -.9401353   1.224572    -0.77   0.443    -3.340252    1.459981
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.902165   .2001596                      1.509859     2.29447
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |    2.58851   .2590576                      2.127462    3.149473
          rho |   .6706922   .0442081                      .5790834    .7509383
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist cl
> aim_libdem rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem
> _rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_da
> ta==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2011.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1129.6884  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -973.14397  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -959.80769  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -959.6083  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -959.60826  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -959.60826
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -914.08445
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -882.79544
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -859.91633
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood =  -842.5414
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -829.55866
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -820.97714
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -815.91124
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -819.17551

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -815.2581  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -772.20202  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.74636  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56998  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -763.5643  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56418  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56127  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -763.56127  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(73)     =     325.05
Log pseudolikelihood  = -763.56127              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .8410745   .5655284     1.49   0.137    -.2673408     1.94949
Christian-~l  |   1.364522   1.046297     1.30   0.192     -.686183    3.415227
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .7532956   .5753462     1.31   0.190    -.3743622    1.880953
Muslim-The~l  |   2.096308   .7195685     2.91   0.004     .6859802    3.506637
              |
claim_commu~t |   .8539028   .5051372     1.69   0.091    -.1361478    1.843953
 claim_libdem |   .1317748    .592886     0.22   0.824     -1.03026     1.29381
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.542345    .879325     2.89   0.004     .8188996     4.26579
  incomp_terr |   .0933406   .4485749     0.21   0.835    -.7858499    .9725312
rebstrength~a |   .9703634   .2405217     4.03   0.000     .4989496    1.441777
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0331432   .0335496    -0.99   0.323    -.0988993    .0326129
 vdem_rescale |  -.0133817    .054347    -0.25   0.806    -.1198999    .0931365
vdem_rescal~q |   .0096376   .0079596     1.21   0.226    -.0059629    .0252382
 active_dyads |   .1572466    .145264     1.08   0.279    -.1274655    .4419588
post_cold_war |   -3.75074   1.478988    -2.54   0.011    -6.649503   -.8519765
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9576723   1.217259    -0.79   0.431    -3.343456    1.428112
        1952  |  -1.279006   1.404289    -0.91   0.362    -4.031361     1.47335
        1953  |   .2131614   1.288549     0.17   0.869    -2.312348    2.738671
        1954  |  -3.596058   1.616553    -2.22   0.026    -6.764445   -.4276715
        1955  |  -1.389095   2.334363    -0.60   0.552    -5.964362    3.186172
        1956  |  -2.382586   2.288003    -1.04   0.298     -6.86699    2.101819
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.986255   1.834868    -1.08   0.279    -5.582531    1.610021
        1959  |  -2.379636   1.976813    -1.20   0.229    -6.254118    1.494846
        1960  |  -3.576476   1.579171    -2.26   0.024    -6.671594   -.4813579
        1961  |  -1.380045   1.518925    -0.91   0.364    -4.357082    1.596993
        1962  |  -.9295195    1.51452    -0.61   0.539    -3.897925    2.038886
        1963  |  -1.211009   1.519564    -0.80   0.425      -4.1893    1.767281
        1964  |  -1.892159   1.326144    -1.43   0.154    -4.491354    .7070352
        1965  |  -2.184579   1.395272    -1.57   0.117    -4.919263    .5501044
        1966  |  -2.066735   1.333728    -1.55   0.121    -4.680794    .5473242
        1967  |  -2.022116   1.277111    -1.58   0.113    -4.525207    .4809762
        1968  |  -2.324225   1.201027    -1.94   0.053    -4.678195    .0297451
        1969  |   -2.06173   1.272344    -1.62   0.105    -4.555477    .4320183
        1970  |  -2.194978   1.240997    -1.77   0.077    -4.627288    .2373315
        1971  |  -1.296255   1.087228    -1.19   0.233    -3.427182    .8346713
        1972  |  -2.939122   1.278854    -2.30   0.022    -5.445629   -.4326155
        1973  |  -3.632931   1.382029    -2.63   0.009    -6.341658   -.9242035
        1974  |  -1.924507   1.342559    -1.43   0.152    -4.555874    .7068611
        1975  |  -1.752914    1.27288    -1.38   0.168    -4.247713    .7418849
        1976  |  -1.541203   1.271083    -1.21   0.225     -4.03248    .9500738
        1977  |  -1.772378   1.248425    -1.42   0.156    -4.219247    .6744901
        1978  |  -.5546143   1.277393    -0.43   0.664    -3.058258    1.949029
        1979  |  -2.207614   1.246276    -1.77   0.076    -4.650271    .2350433
        1980  |  -1.938742   1.238996    -1.56   0.118    -4.367129    .4896455
        1981  |  -2.052936   1.290794    -1.59   0.112    -4.582846    .4769736
        1982  |  -1.542209   1.226512    -1.26   0.209    -3.946128    .8617106
        1983  |  -1.731328   1.271228    -1.36   0.173    -4.222888    .7602326
        1984  |  -1.490475   1.235423    -1.21   0.228    -3.911859    .9309096
        1985  |  -1.733404   1.251245    -1.39   0.166      -4.1858    .7189908
        1986  |  -2.279138   1.269369    -1.80   0.073    -4.767056    .2087791
        1987  |  -1.899834   1.259769    -1.51   0.132    -4.368937    .5692679
        1988  |  -1.185671   1.250506    -0.95   0.343    -3.636618    1.265276
        1989  |  -2.898185   1.279646    -2.26   0.024    -5.406245   -.3901248
        1990  |   -2.58799   1.303175    -1.99   0.047    -5.142165   -.0338143
        1991  |   .8886251   .9924492     0.90   0.371     -1.05654     2.83379
        1992  |   1.639482   .9924395     1.65   0.099    -.3056635    3.584628
        1993  |    .824121   1.018763     0.81   0.419    -1.172618     2.82086
        1994  |   1.093421   1.075869     1.02   0.309    -1.015243    3.202084
        1995  |    .996974   1.113785     0.90   0.371    -1.186005    3.179953
        1996  |    .994718   1.061548     0.94   0.349    -1.085878    3.075314
        1997  |   .9800876   .9970422     0.98   0.326    -.9740793    2.934254
        1998  |    1.82463   .9776977     1.87   0.062    -.0916218    3.740883
        1999  |   1.783251   .9704948     1.84   0.066    -.1188835    3.685386
        2000  |   1.152285   .9804818     1.18   0.240    -.7694241    3.073994
        2001  |   .4200611   1.003097     0.42   0.675    -1.545973    2.386095
        2002  |   1.518249   1.018003     1.49   0.136    -.4769995    3.513497
        2003  |    .383293   1.313651     0.29   0.770    -2.191416    2.958002
        2004  |   1.384226   1.149155     1.20   0.228    -.8680767    3.636529
        2005  |   .6329826   1.200868     0.53   0.598    -1.720676    2.986641
        2006  |  -.4393325   .9684545    -0.45   0.650    -2.337468    1.458803
        2007  |  -.1627272   1.104024    -0.15   0.883    -2.326575     2.00112
        2008  |  -.0048448   .8214251    -0.01   0.995    -1.614808    1.605119
        2009  |   .5058316    .910925     0.56   0.579    -1.279548    2.291212
        2010  |   -.213226    .833936    -0.26   0.798    -1.847711    1.421259
        2011  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -.9401353   1.224572    -0.77   0.443    -3.340252    1.459981
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.902165   .2001596                      1.509859     2.29447
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |    2.58851   .2590576                      2.127462    3.149473
          rho |   .6706922   .0442081                      .5790834    .7509383
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type c.
> claim_communist c.claim_libdem) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rebstrength_
> nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_
> ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 10 obs not used

note: 2011.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1129.6884  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -965.21195  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -951.43507  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -951.21211  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -951.21178  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -951.21178  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -951.21178
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -906.08479
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -875.33425
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -852.89783
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -835.84191
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -823.09968
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -814.32813
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -810.35315
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -813.66361

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -809.15351  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -764.12778  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -754.97767  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -754.69084  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -754.67925  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -754.67925  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -754.6751  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -754.6751  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,207
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        426

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.2
                                                              max =         45

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(79)     =     346.54
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -754.6751              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 426 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.033462    1.65087    -1.84   0.066    -6.269107     .202184
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.163837   .6425809     1.81   0.070    -.0955987    2.423272
Christian-~l  |   2.169863   1.198269     1.81   0.070     -.178701    4.518427
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .5061139   .5954409     0.85   0.395    -.6609288    1.673157
Muslim-The~l  |   3.456191    .952878     3.63   0.000     1.588584    5.323798
              |
claim_commu~t |   .9369584   .5660227     1.66   0.098    -.1724257    2.046342
 claim_libdem |   1.100697    .746543     1.47   0.140       -.3625    2.563895
              |
post_cold_war#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |  -1.075636   .8590041    -1.25   0.211    -2.759254    .6079808
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |  -1.317595    .924926    -1.42   0.154    -3.130417    .4952263
              |
post_cold_war#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .4618782   .8547119     0.54   0.589    -1.213326    2.137083
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -2.017202   1.031168    -1.96   0.050    -4.038256    .0038506
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |   .2313479    .874787     0.26   0.791    -1.483203    1.945899
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |  -1.919716   .7158811    -2.68   0.007    -3.322817    -.516615
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |    2.72306   .9330257     2.92   0.004     .8943632    4.551757
  incomp_terr |   .2006608   .4683425     0.43   0.668    -.7172736    1.118595
rebstrength~a |   1.126006   .2572213     4.38   0.000     .6218617    1.630151
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0296922   .0342837    -0.87   0.386    -.0968871    .0375026
 vdem_rescale |  -.0322494   .0613313    -0.53   0.599    -.1524565    .0879577
vdem_rescal~q |   .0089041   .0086472     1.03   0.303    -.0080442    .0258523
 active_dyads |   .0853486   .1331258     0.64   0.521    -.1755733    .3462704
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -.9033066   1.221175    -0.74   0.459    -3.296765    1.490152
        1952  |  -1.268089   1.443009    -0.88   0.380    -4.096335    1.560157
        1953  |   .2657194   1.271767     0.21   0.834    -2.226899    2.758338
        1954  |  -3.712628    1.66874    -2.22   0.026    -6.983298   -.4419578
        1955  |  -1.340679    2.40919    -0.56   0.578    -6.062604    3.381246
        1956  |   -2.35513   2.321672    -1.01   0.310    -6.905524    2.195265
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.899806   1.872651    -1.01   0.310    -5.570134    1.770522
        1959  |   -2.30388   2.018604    -1.14   0.254    -6.260272    1.652512
        1960  |  -3.547162   1.608289    -2.21   0.027    -6.699351   -.3949728
        1961  |  -1.389877   1.541723    -0.90   0.367    -4.411598    1.631845
        1962  |  -.9701092   1.540569    -0.63   0.529     -3.98957    2.049351
        1963  |  -1.241554   1.548129    -0.80   0.423     -4.27583    1.792722
        1964  |   -1.97148   1.347665    -1.46   0.143    -4.612855    .6698949
        1965  |  -2.286092   1.409197    -1.62   0.105    -5.048067    .4758831
        1966  |  -2.151152   1.355425    -1.59   0.112    -4.807735    .5054318
        1967  |   -2.09325    1.29534    -1.62   0.106    -4.632071    .4455704
        1968  |  -2.405505   1.216271    -1.98   0.048    -4.789352    -.021659
        1969  |  -2.111676   1.282805    -1.65   0.100    -4.625928    .4025751
        1970  |  -2.236576   1.254072    -1.78   0.075    -4.694512    .2213601
        1971  |  -1.279258   1.102558    -1.16   0.246    -3.440231    .8817153
        1972  |  -3.023978   1.293157    -2.34   0.019     -5.55852   -.4894361
        1973  |  -3.721219   1.381621    -2.69   0.007    -6.429147   -1.013292
        1974  |  -1.995221    1.36013    -1.47   0.142    -4.661027    .6705853
        1975  |  -1.821546   1.292185    -1.41   0.159    -4.354181      .71109
        1976  |  -1.617937   1.298083    -1.25   0.213    -4.162133    .9262597
        1977  |  -1.881783   1.277787    -1.47   0.141      -4.3862    .6226338
        1978  |  -.6255774   1.307486    -0.48   0.632    -3.188202    1.937047
        1979  |  -2.352889   1.277155    -1.84   0.065    -4.856067    .1502886
        1980  |   -2.04177   1.267156    -1.61   0.107    -4.525351    .4418105
        1981  |  -2.151796    1.32237    -1.63   0.104    -4.743594    .4400016
        1982  |   -1.62737   1.250595    -1.30   0.193     -4.07849    .8237509
        1983  |  -1.829737   1.308332    -1.40   0.162    -4.394021     .734546
        1984  |  -1.499338   1.263096    -1.19   0.235    -3.974961    .9762844
        1985  |  -1.779105   1.271627    -1.40   0.162    -4.271449    .7132386
        1986  |  -2.350597   1.306258    -1.80   0.072    -4.910815    .2096222
        1987  |  -1.973926   1.293974    -1.53   0.127    -4.510068    .5622164
        1988  |  -1.237747   1.272367    -0.97   0.331     -3.73154    1.256047
        1989  |  -3.175833   1.346773    -2.36   0.018     -5.81546   -.5362066
        1990  |  -2.732497   1.368989    -2.00   0.046    -5.415667   -.0493265
        1991  |   1.020109   .9861328     1.03   0.301    -.9126759    2.952894
        1992  |   1.676882   1.007672     1.66   0.096    -.2981193    3.651884
        1993  |   .7939716   1.018265     0.78   0.436    -1.201791    2.789735
        1994  |   1.067239   1.076965     0.99   0.322    -1.043573     3.17805
        1995  |   .9768932   1.089423     0.90   0.370    -1.158337    3.112124
        1996  |   .9684468   1.041615     0.93   0.352    -1.073081    3.009975
        1997  |   1.020905   1.020833     1.00   0.317    -.9798917    3.021702
        1998  |   1.859418   .9967772     1.87   0.062     -.094229    3.813066
        1999  |   1.855064   .9826177     1.89   0.059    -.0708312     3.78096
        2000  |   1.224698    1.00133     1.22   0.221    -.7378731    3.187269
        2001  |   .5007782   1.027763     0.49   0.626      -1.5136    2.515156
        2002  |   1.588534   1.005848     1.58   0.114    -.3828921     3.55996
        2003  |   .4245055   1.283148     0.33   0.741    -2.090419     2.93943
        2004  |   1.408272   1.132938     1.24   0.214    -.8122452    3.628789
        2005  |    .570098   1.200882     0.47   0.635    -1.783588    2.923784
        2006  |  -.4815889   .9703483    -0.50   0.620    -2.383437    1.420259
        2007  |  -.1822069   1.111744    -0.16   0.870    -2.361184     1.99677
        2008  |  -.0565849   .8276091    -0.07   0.945    -1.678669    1.565499
        2009  |   .4378426   .9194914     0.48   0.634    -1.364327    2.240013
        2010  |  -.2423303   .8404787    -0.29   0.773    -1.889638    1.404978
        2011  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.131507   1.257965    -0.90   0.368    -3.597073     1.33406
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.973765   .2126052                      1.557066    2.390463
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.682857   .2851948                      2.178275    3.304323
          rho |   .6863085   .0457716                       .590545    .7684564
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist claim_libdem
>  rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale v
> dem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_u
> cdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6995610.4  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3669766.9  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3408345.7  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2081350.2  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1257620.3  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -425844.67  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -347452.89  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood =  -344324.6  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -344315.64  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -344315.63  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -264419.05  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5795.2225  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5749.6121  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5429.0233  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5427.6857  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5427.6846  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5374.8309  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5338.3312  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5296.1181  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5295.0743  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5295.0672  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5295.0672  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -76164.219  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10861.138  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7229.9481  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -5878.079  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5358.9334  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5200.7225  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5174.5055  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5096.4551  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5076.6258  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5074.4346  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5074.4296  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -5074.4296  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        732
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        161

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.5
                                                              max =         22

                                                Wald chi2(37)     =      91.93
Log likelihood  = -5074.4296                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |  -.0774256    .145828    -0.53   0.595    -.3632432    .2083921
Christian-~l  |   -.097779    .267646    -0.37   0.715    -.6223556    .4267976
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   -.094188   .1460856    -0.64   0.519    -.3805106    .1921346
Muslim-The~l  |  -.1487763   .1532647    -0.97   0.332    -.4491697    .1516171
              |
claim_commu~t |  -.5304893    .148128    -3.58   0.000    -.8208148   -.2401637
 claim_libdem |  -.3030809   .1651608    -1.84   0.066    -.6267902    .0206284
rebel_ext_m~t |   .5576357   .2894288     1.93   0.054    -.0096343    1.124906
  incomp_terr |  -.3732974   .1219424    -3.06   0.002    -.6123001   -.1342947
rebstrength~a |   .1386229   .0793661     1.75   0.081    -.0169317    .2941776
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0146195   .0142594     1.03   0.305    -.0133284    .0425673
 vdem_rescale |   .0251351   .0125514     2.00   0.045     .0005348    .0497353
vdem_rescal~q |   .0022482   .0022059     1.02   0.308    -.0020752    .0065717
     rcd_loot |   .0513796   .0906663     0.57   0.571     -.126323    .2290822
    rcd_crime |   .4773587   .0990063     4.82   0.000     .2833098    .6714075
 active_dyads |  -.0074806   .0440612    -0.17   0.865    -.0938391    .0788778
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000614   .0000132     4.67   0.000     .0000356    .0000872
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2039853   .1756767    -1.16   0.246    -.5483053    .1403347
        1992  |   .1117411   .1758049     0.64   0.525    -.2328302    .4563123
        1993  |  -.0518318   .1782187    -0.29   0.771    -.4011341    .2974704
        1994  |  -.0803939   .1780799    -0.45   0.652    -.4294241    .2686362
        1995  |  -.2730979   .1831253    -1.49   0.136    -.6320168    .0858211
        1996  |   -.029856   .1889227    -0.16   0.874    -.4001378    .3404257
        1997  |  -.1262089   .1913792    -0.66   0.510    -.5013053    .2488875
        1998  |  -.0886553    .183306    -0.48   0.629    -.4479284    .2706177
        1999  |  -.0972931   .1833791    -0.53   0.596    -.4567095    .2621234
        2000  |  -.1414106     .18387    -0.77   0.442    -.5017891    .2189679
        2001  |  -.3767848   .1853011    -2.03   0.042    -.7399682   -.0136014
        2002  |  -.0053484   .1803915    -0.03   0.976    -.3589092    .3482123
        2003  |  -.3323998   .1931375    -1.72   0.085    -.7109423    .0461428
        2004  |  -.1883145   .1926609    -0.98   0.328    -.5659229     .189294
        2005  |  -.2338526   .2023636    -1.16   0.248     -.630478    .1627728
        2006  |  -.2360264   .1941054    -1.22   0.224    -.6164659    .1444132
        2007  |  -.1457395   .1953185    -0.75   0.456    -.5285567    .2370777
        2008  |  -.1537725   .1902226    -0.81   0.419    -.5266019    .2190569
        2009  |  -.1293804   .1872797    -0.69   0.490    -.4964418     .237681
        2010  |  -.3753721   .1969117    -1.91   0.057    -.7613119    .0105678
        2011  |  -.4910739   .2027864    -2.42   0.015     -.888528   -.0936199
              |
        _cons |   .4277161   .3798746     1.13   0.260    -.3168244    1.172257
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0639175   .1294399                      -.317615    .1897801
        /ln_s |   4.520187   .2249086                      4.079374       4.961
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9380824   .1214253                      .7278829    1.208984
            s |   91.85278   20.65848                      59.10847    142.7364
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 441.28               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist claim_libdem
>  rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rebstrength_nsa side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale v
> dem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_u
> cdp_data==0, fe
note: 49 groups (49 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -107410.57  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5417.4632  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4349.8854  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4033.8961  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -3910.5843  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -3746.1565  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -3740.5888  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -3740.5085  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -3740.5084  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        683
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        112

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.1
                                                              max =         22

                                                Wald chi2(37)     =     107.65
Log likelihood  = -3740.5084                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .0607608   .1970168     0.31   0.758     -.325385    .4469066
Christian-~l  |   .2163084   .3391382     0.64   0.524    -.4483902    .8810071
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.2633708   .1823016    -1.44   0.149    -.6206753    .0939337
Muslim-The~l  |  -.4218468   .1802629    -2.34   0.019    -.7751556    -.068538
              |
claim_commu~t |  -.6539072   .1799038    -3.63   0.000    -1.006512   -.3013023
 claim_libdem |  -.4331054    .224681    -1.93   0.054     -.873472    .0072612
rebel_ext_m~t |    .275907   .3795347     0.73   0.467    -.4679673    1.019781
  incomp_terr |  -.2171893   .1583571    -1.37   0.170    -.5275635     .093185
rebstrength~a |  -.0450012   .0957816    -0.47   0.638    -.2327297    .1427272
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0118221   .0180738     0.65   0.513     -.023602    .0472462
 vdem_rescale |   .0482669   .0142597     3.38   0.001     .0203185    .0762154
vdem_rescal~q |   .0022958   .0024462     0.94   0.348    -.0024985    .0070902
     rcd_loot |  -.0374933    .097951    -0.38   0.702    -.2294738    .1544872
    rcd_crime |   .5877641   .1102154     5.33   0.000     .3717458    .8037824
 active_dyads |    .021315   .0500873     0.43   0.670    -.0768543    .1194842
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000487   .0000152     3.21   0.001      .000019    .0000785
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2257167   .1740774    -1.30   0.195    -.5669022    .1154687
        1992  |   .0504074    .184993     0.27   0.785    -.3121721     .412987
        1993  |  -.1698066   .1933275    -0.88   0.380    -.5487215    .2091083
        1994  |  -.1798595   .1944173    -0.93   0.355    -.5609104    .2011913
        1995  |  -.3645371   .1946833    -1.87   0.061    -.7461093    .0170352
        1996  |   -.162524   .1995707    -0.81   0.415    -.5536753    .2286274
        1997  |  -.3068788   .2019436    -1.52   0.129    -.7026809    .0889232
        1998  |  -.2949381   .1972241    -1.50   0.135    -.6814902    .0916141
        1999  |  -.3156593   .2000354    -1.58   0.115    -.7077214    .0764028
        2000  |  -.2712544   .1959792    -1.38   0.166    -.6553667    .1128578
        2001  |  -.4966918   .1935189    -2.57   0.010    -.8759818   -.1174017
        2002  |  -.1262829   .1874783    -0.67   0.501    -.4937335    .2411678
        2003  |  -.4517542   .2010117    -2.25   0.025    -.8457298   -.0577786
        2004  |  -.3071605   .1998585    -1.54   0.124    -.6988758    .0845549
        2005  |  -.3660398   .2091003    -1.75   0.080    -.7758689    .0437892
        2006  |  -.3885715   .2030638    -1.91   0.056    -.7865693    .0094262
        2007  |  -.2806559   .2055636    -1.37   0.172    -.6835531    .1222414
        2008  |  -.3243492   .2056465    -1.58   0.115     -.727409    .0787106
        2009  |  -.2703353   .2007832    -1.35   0.178    -.6638631    .1231925
        2010  |  -.5667146   .2119222    -2.67   0.007    -.9820746   -.1513546
        2011  |  -.6981486   .2210348    -3.16   0.002    -1.131369   -.2649285
              |
        _cons |   .4243256   .4813516     0.88   0.378    -.5191061    1.367757
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. **********************************

. 
. * SET DATA AS SURVIVAL-TIME DATA *

. 
. **********************************

. 
. 
. 
. stset year1 if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, failure(ep_end==1) id(dyad_id_rev) origi
> n(time start_year_1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyad_id_rev
     failure event:  ep_end == 1
obs. time interval:  (year1[_n-1], year1]
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time start_year_1
            if exp:  obsolete_ucdp_data==0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2610  total observations
         34  ignored at outset because of -if <exp>-
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2576  observations remaining, representing
        507  subjects
        433  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
   3381.196  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =        70

. 
. 
. 
. **********************************************************************

. 
. * Table A2-E. “Risk” of Armed Conflict Termination – Dyadic, 1950-2015, GRP sc
> ores *

. 
. **********************************************************************

. 
. 
. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, no
> hr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          472             Number of obs    =       2,400
No. of failures      =          392
Time at risk         =  3139.196533
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =       91.23
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1686.0289             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4515171   .1174942    -3.84   0.000    -.6818015   -.2212327
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1849752   .1274677    -1.45   0.147    -.4348073    .0648569
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.0645638   .2398623    -0.27   0.788    -.5346853    .4055576
  incomp_terr |  -.0713939   .1196545    -0.60   0.551    -.3059124    .1631245
intensity_l~l |  -.3225969   .1687379    -1.91   0.056     -.653317    .0081233
       rr_grp |   -.159461   .0949075    -1.68   0.093    -.3454763    .0265543
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0122558   .0100956    -1.21   0.225    -.0320429    .0075313
 vdem_rescale |  -.0191697   .0158514    -1.21   0.227    -.0502379    .0118985
vdem_rescal~q |   -.001966   .0029465    -0.67   0.505     -.007741     .003809
 active_dyads |  -.8901472   .1061851    -8.38   0.000    -1.098266   -.6820282
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads pos
> t_cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          472             Number of obs    =       2,400
No. of failures      =          392
Time at risk         =  3139.196533
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =      109.07
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1681.2822             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4271021   .1168291    -3.66   0.000    -.6560829   -.1981213
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1966773   .1237093    -1.59   0.112    -.4391431    .0457885
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1388451   .2511556    -0.55   0.580    -.6311011    .3534109
  incomp_terr |  -.0334609   .1154934    -0.29   0.772    -.2598237    .1929019
intensity_l~l |  -.2860599   .1688132    -1.69   0.090    -.6169276    .0448078
       rr_grp |  -.1551864   .0930877    -1.67   0.095    -.3376349    .0272622
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0196354   .0102104    -1.92   0.054    -.0396474    .0003766
 vdem_rescale |  -.0215129   .0156842    -1.37   0.170    -.0522534    .0092277
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0001057   .0030211    -0.03   0.972     -.006027    .0058155
 active_dyads |  -.9088141   .1053733    -8.62   0.000    -1.115342   -.7022863
post_cold_war |   .3635459   .1176495     3.09   0.002     .1329572    .5941346
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_su
> pport incomp_terr intensity_level rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          472             Number of obs    =       2,400
No. of failures      =          392
Time at risk         =  3139.196533
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =      112.12
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1679.5892             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |    .196612   .2385832     0.82   0.410    -.2710026    .6642265
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4388402   .1930132    -2.27   0.023    -.8171391   -.0605413
incomp_rel_~f |  -.4079749   .1790744    -2.28   0.023    -.7589543   -.0569954
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |   .0031072   .2410073     0.01   0.990    -.4692585    .4754728
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .3981877    .222211     1.79   0.073    -.0373379    .8337133
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   -.185611    .258718    -0.72   0.473     -.692689     .321467
  incomp_terr |  -.0398289   .1194404    -0.33   0.739    -.2739277    .1942699
intensity_l~l |  -.2955846   .1698018    -1.74   0.082    -.6283899    .0372207
       rr_grp |  -.1387549   .0946446    -1.47   0.143     -.324255    .0467452
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0213031   .0102684    -2.07   0.038    -.0414287   -.0011775
 vdem_rescale |  -.0216122   .0157743    -1.37   0.171    -.0525292    .0093048
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0001348   .0030818    -0.04   0.965    -.0061751    .0059055
 active_dyads |  -.9183075    .105851    -8.68   0.000    -1.125772   -.7108434
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, no
> hr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          472             Number of obs    =       2,400
No. of failures      =          392
Time at risk         =  3139.196533
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =       92.90
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1685.7862             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.4240586    .125126    -3.39   0.001    -.6693011   -.1788161
 Theological  |  -.5708242   .2351085    -2.43   0.015    -1.031628     -.11002
        Both  |  -.4952433   .1789033    -2.77   0.006    -.8458874   -.1445992
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   -.164922   .1316716    -1.25   0.210    -.4229937    .0931496
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.0786206   .2410665    -0.33   0.744    -.5511022     .393861
  incomp_terr |  -.0854829   .1211567    -0.71   0.480    -.3229457    .1519799
intensity_l~l |  -.3205919   .1689195    -1.90   0.058    -.6516681    .0104843
       rr_grp |  -.1484845   .0978205    -1.52   0.129    -.3402091    .0432401
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0109118   .0103712    -1.05   0.293    -.0312389    .0094153
 vdem_rescale |  -.0208126   .0162678    -1.28   0.201     -.052697    .0110717
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0022013   .0030716    -0.72   0.474    -.0082215    .0038189
 active_dyads |  -.8837962   .1070042    -8.26   0.000    -1.093521   -.6740717
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads pos
> t_cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          472             Number of obs    =       2,400
No. of failures      =          392
Time at risk         =  3139.196533
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =      117.16
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1679.4451             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.3363471   .1270125    -2.65   0.008     -.585287   -.0874072
 Theological  |   -.746117   .2374818    -3.14   0.002    -1.211573   -.2806611
        Both  |  -.5614371   .1913388    -2.93   0.003    -.9364542     -.18642
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1358212   .1273978    -1.07   0.286    -.3855163     .113874
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2006661   .2575543    -0.78   0.436    -.7054634    .3041311
  incomp_terr |  -.0683714   .1156663    -0.59   0.554    -.2950731    .1583303
intensity_l~l |  -.2727095   .1694385    -1.61   0.108    -.6048028    .0593838
       rr_grp |  -.1205662   .0971256    -1.24   0.214    -.3109288    .0697964
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0171547   .0104365    -1.64   0.100    -.0376099    .0033005
 vdem_rescale |  -.0267994   .0162234    -1.65   0.099    -.0585967    .0049979
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0003355   .0031384    -0.11   0.915    -.0064866    .0058156
 active_dyads |  -.8948142   .1059169    -8.45   0.000    -1.102407   -.6872209
post_cold_war |   .4465477   .1252274     3.57   0.000     .2011066    .6919888
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff) rebel_ext_mil_supp
> ort incomp_terr intensity_level rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_
> sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          472             Number of obs    =       2,400
No. of failures      =          392
Time at risk         =  3139.196533
                                                Wald chi2(17)    =      129.57
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1672.4517             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .1459624   .2385016     0.61   0.541    -.3214921    .6134169
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.4952848    .197981    -2.50   0.012    -.8833204   -.1072492
 Theological  |   .1916522   .8768425     0.22   0.827    -1.526927    1.910232
        Both  |  -.0068311   .3003159    -0.02   0.982    -.5954395    .5817773
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.3923041   .1833999    -2.14   0.032    -.7517613   -.0328469
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |    .312476   .2511261     1.24   0.213    -.1797222    .8046741
           1 #|
 Theological  |  -.9543142   .9046763    -1.05   0.291    -2.727447    .8188187
      1#Both  |   -.851901   .4281819    -1.99   0.047    -1.691122   -.0126799
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .5173902    .226319     2.29   0.022     .0738131    .9609672
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3028234   .2821827    -1.07   0.283    -.8558914    .2502446
  incomp_terr |   -.069263   .1173684    -0.59   0.555    -.2993008    .1607748
intensity_l~l |  -.3217211   .1752318    -1.84   0.066    -.6651691    .0217269
       rr_grp |   -.105594    .099963    -1.06   0.291    -.3015178    .0903299
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0189134   .0103567    -1.83   0.068    -.0392122    .0013853
 vdem_rescale |  -.0268983   .0165129    -1.63   0.103    -.0592629    .0054663
vdem_rescal~q |   -.000509   .0031771    -0.16   0.873    -.0067361     .005718
 active_dyads |  -.9086984   .1056936    -8.60   0.000    -1.115854   -.7015428
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. ***********************************************************************

. 
. * Table A3-E. “Risk” of Armed Conflict Termination – Monadic, 1950-2015, GRP s
> cores *

. 
. ***********************************************************************

. 
. 
. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron v
> ce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          472             Number of obs    =       2,400
No. of failures      =          392
Time at risk         =  3139.196533
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =       92.98
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1682.7503             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.5324379   .1143312    -4.66   0.000     -.756523   -.3083528
    rel_aff01 |   .3420957   .1842107     1.86   0.063    -.0189506    .7031421
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.0532395   .2303483    -0.23   0.817    -.5047138    .3982348
  incomp_terr |  -.3627772   .1220826    -2.97   0.003    -.6020547   -.1234998
intensity_l~l |   -.332908   .1678039    -1.98   0.047    -.6617975   -.0040185
       rr_grp |   -.136258   .0844594    -1.61   0.107    -.3017953    .0292793
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0080308   .0102207    -0.79   0.432     -.028063    .0120014
 vdem_rescale |  -.0340725   .0163472    -2.08   0.037    -.0661123   -.0020326
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0028758   .0029172    -0.99   0.324    -.0085935    .0028419
 active_dyads |  -.8776957   .1040639    -8.43   0.000    -1.081657   -.6737342
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war
> , nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          472             Number of obs    =       2,400
No. of failures      =          392
Time at risk         =  3139.196533
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =      116.96
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1676.9051             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.5529391   .1122448    -4.93   0.000    -.7729348   -.3329434
    rel_aff01 |    .301166   .1821109     1.65   0.098    -.0557649    .6580968
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1270901   .2404096    -0.53   0.597    -.5982842     .344104
  incomp_terr |    -.31682   .1202136    -2.64   0.008    -.5524344   -.0812056
intensity_l~l |  -.2968875   .1681228    -1.77   0.077    -.6264021    .0326272
       rr_grp |  -.1175982   .0831907    -1.41   0.157    -.2806491    .0454527
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0155856   .0103685    -1.50   0.133    -.0359074    .0047363
 vdem_rescale |  -.0355172   .0157203    -2.26   0.024    -.0663284   -.0047061
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0006219   .0029674    -0.21   0.834    -.0064379    .0051941
 active_dyads |  -.9010702   .1034747    -8.71   0.000    -1.103877   -.6982634
post_cold_war |   .4062803   .1185115     3.43   0.001      .174002    .6385586
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_ideology c.rel_aff01) rebel_ext_mil_support inco
> mp_terr intensity_level rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq activ
> e_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          472             Number of obs    =       2,400
No. of failures      =          392
Time at risk         =  3139.196533
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =      121.83
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1674.9556             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |    .859476    .360747     2.38   0.017     .1524249    1.566527
claim_ideol~y |  -.3288931    .176303    -1.87   0.062    -.6744406    .0166545
    rel_aff01 |   .4580856   .2340477     1.96   0.050    -.0006395    .9168107
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.3658783   .2160072    -1.69   0.090    -.7892446     .057488
              |
post_cold_war#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |  -.2971784   .3682745    -0.81   0.420    -1.018983    .4246264
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   -.121182   .2448046    -0.50   0.621    -.6009902    .3586263
  incomp_terr |  -.2827946   .1207146    -2.34   0.019    -.5193909   -.0461984
intensity_l~l |  -.3154858   .1681295    -1.88   0.061    -.6450137    .0140421
       rr_grp |   -.119846   .0830956    -1.44   0.149    -.2827103    .0430184
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0162395   .0102802    -1.58   0.114    -.0363883    .0039093
 vdem_rescale |  -.0352288   .0156151    -2.26   0.024    -.0658338   -.0046239
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0001307   .0029711    -0.04   0.965    -.0059541    .0056926
 active_dyads |  -.9069414   .1038516    -8.73   0.000    -1.110487   -.7033961
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem
> _rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          472             Number of obs    =       2,400
No. of failures      =          392
Time at risk         =  3139.196533
                                                Wald chi2(14)    =      108.96
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1674.2668             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.7400989   .1408066    -5.26   0.000    -1.016075   -.4641231
 claim_libdem |  -.4296766   .1645368    -2.61   0.009    -.7521629   -.1071903
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .4210084   .1462542     2.88   0.004     .1343555    .7076613
Christian-~l  |   .5283376   .4321845     1.22   0.222    -.3187284    1.375404
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .0795452   .1486031     0.54   0.592    -.2117115    .3708019
Muslim-The~l  |  -.4623612   .1997172    -2.32   0.021    -.8537996   -.0709228
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1945927      .2523    -0.77   0.441    -.6890916    .2999061
  incomp_terr |  -.3067414   .1230734    -2.49   0.013    -.5479609    -.065522
intensity_l~l |  -.3801075   .1761633    -2.16   0.031    -.7253812   -.0348338
       rr_grp |  -.0371379   .0927277    -0.40   0.689    -.2188808     .144605
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0119972   .0104362    -1.15   0.250    -.0324518    .0084574
 vdem_rescale |   -.029835   .0155784    -1.92   0.055     -.060368    .0006981
vdem_rescal~q |   -.003038   .0028074    -1.08   0.279    -.0085404    .0024645
 active_dyads |  -.8868961   .1052954    -8.42   0.000    -1.093271   -.6805209
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem
> _rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep
> _no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          472             Number of obs    =       2,400
No. of failures      =          392
Time at risk         =  3139.196533
                                                Wald chi2(15)    =      125.87
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1668.5856             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.6345547   .1450338    -4.38   0.000    -.9188156   -.3502938
 claim_libdem |  -.4563418   .1607579    -2.84   0.005    -.7714215    -.141262
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .4166946   .1441151     2.89   0.004     .1342342     .699155
Christian-~l  |   .3877094   .4271998     0.91   0.364    -.4495868    1.225006
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .0278278    .147472     0.19   0.850    -.2612121    .3168677
Muslim-The~l  |  -.6338741   .2113803    -3.00   0.003    -1.048172   -.2195764
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   -.303442   .2653659    -1.14   0.253    -.8235495    .2166656
  incomp_terr |  -.2447398   .1221566    -2.00   0.045    -.4841624   -.0053172
intensity_l~l |  -.3487487   .1773261    -1.97   0.049    -.6963015   -.0011959
       rr_grp |  -.0051164   .0922626    -0.06   0.956    -.1859477    .1757149
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0186438   .0105589    -1.77   0.077    -.0393389    .0020512
 vdem_rescale |  -.0318092   .0147653    -2.15   0.031    -.0607486   -.0028698
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0006881   .0028959    -0.24   0.812    -.0063641    .0049878
 active_dyads |   -.901274   .1048443    -8.60   0.000    -1.106765   -.6957829
post_cold_war |   .4287914   .1287063     3.33   0.001     .1765318    .6810511
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox post_cold_war##(c.claim_communist c.claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_
> claim_type) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level rr_grp side_a_ln
> GDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog st
> rata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          472             Number of obs    =       2,400
No. of failures      =          392
Time at risk         =  3139.196533
                                                Wald chi2(21)    =      145.20
Log pseudolikelihood =    -1663.333             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |   .7308982   .2520615     2.90   0.004     .2368668     1.22493
claim_commu~t |  -.6161731   .1983621    -3.11   0.002    -1.004956   -.2273905
 claim_libdem |  -.5717449    .273388    -2.09   0.036    -1.107576   -.0359142
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |    .512294   .2225435     2.30   0.021     .0761167    .9484712
Christian-~l  |   .5360765    .870854     0.62   0.538    -1.170766    2.242919
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .2675851   .2124163     1.26   0.208    -.1487433    .6839135
Muslim-The~l  |   .4168708   .3404226     1.22   0.221    -.2503453    1.084087
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |  -.0321815   .2728847    -0.12   0.906    -.5670257    .5026626
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |   .1792614   .3253575     0.55   0.582    -.4584276    .8169505
              |
post_cold_war#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |   -.251504   .3112073    -0.81   0.419    -.8614591     .358451
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |  -.3412367   .8376685    -0.41   0.684    -1.983037    1.300563
              |
post_cold_war#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.4951759   .3111472    -1.59   0.112    -1.105013    .1146615
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |  -1.413379   .4489309    -3.15   0.002    -2.293268   -.5334909
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   -.312461   .2815208    -1.11   0.267    -.8642316    .2393096
  incomp_terr |  -.2511615   .1253565    -2.00   0.045    -.4968558   -.0054673
intensity_l~l |  -.3491194   .1807298    -1.93   0.053    -.7033433    .0051045
       rr_grp |  -.0111539   .0961848    -0.12   0.908    -.1996726    .1773648
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0168606   .0108267    -1.56   0.119    -.0380806    .0043593
 vdem_rescale |  -.0339193   .0154706    -2.19   0.028    -.0642411   -.0035975
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0015013   .0030528    -0.49   0.623    -.0074848    .0044821
 active_dyads |  -.8992638   .1042644    -8.62   0.000    -1.103618   -.6949093
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. **************************

. 
. * SET DATA AS PANEL DATA *

. 
. **************************

. 
. 
. 
. xtset dyad_id_rev year
       panel variable:  dyad_id_rev (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2017, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *************

. 
. * Table A4-E. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Any Ideological Incompatibi
> lity - Dyadic, GRP scores *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> *************

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads
>  i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used


Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(73)     =     403.40
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -815.3774              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .5987871   .4234167     1.41   0.157    -.2310943    1.428669
incomp_rel_~f |   1.071162   .3737839     2.87   0.004     .3385592    1.803765
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.632562   .7696507     3.42   0.001     1.124074    4.141049
  incomp_terr |  -.9150654   .4376909    -2.09   0.037    -1.772924   -.0572069
       rr_grp |   .7331818   .2422592     3.03   0.002     .2583624    1.208001
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0541302   .0311932    -1.74   0.083    -.1152677    .0070072
 vdem_rescale |  -.0396267    .056044    -0.71   0.480    -.1494709    .0702176
vdem_rescal~q |   .0078433   .0080801     0.97   0.332    -.0079935    .0236801
 active_dyads |   .1035849   .1352094     0.77   0.444    -.1614207    .3685905
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.279167   1.295923    -0.99   0.324     -3.81913    1.260796
        1952  |   -1.60709   1.432092    -1.12   0.262    -4.413939    1.199759
        1953  |   .1869831   1.413277     0.13   0.895    -2.582988    2.956954
        1954  |  -2.959297   1.538731    -1.92   0.054    -5.975154    .0565608
        1955  |  -1.215158   2.098314    -0.58   0.563    -5.327779    2.897462
        1956  |   -2.19048   2.258329    -0.97   0.332    -6.616723    2.235764
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.482446   1.877869    -0.79   0.430    -5.163001    2.198109
        1959  |  -2.288057    2.03154    -1.13   0.260    -6.269802    1.693688
        1960  |  -3.270526   1.611419    -2.03   0.042    -6.428848   -.1122034
        1961  |  -.8470512   1.519072    -0.56   0.577    -3.824379    2.130276
        1962  |  -.3630001   1.555397    -0.23   0.815    -3.411523    2.685523
        1963  |  -.6521204   1.495751    -0.44   0.663    -3.583738    2.279497
        1964  |  -1.296378   1.346245    -0.96   0.336     -3.93497    1.342214
        1965  |  -1.529245   1.399584    -1.09   0.275    -4.272378    1.213889
        1966  |  -1.305525   1.311305    -1.00   0.319    -3.875636    1.264585
        1967  |  -1.380735   1.307908    -1.06   0.291    -3.944188    1.182719
        1968  |  -1.637659   1.263861    -1.30   0.195     -4.11478    .8394627
        1969  |  -1.313756   1.310526    -1.00   0.316    -3.882341    1.254828
        1970  |  -1.381999   1.288428    -1.07   0.283    -3.907272    1.143273
        1971  |  -.4685399   1.120505    -0.42   0.676    -2.664689     1.72761
        1972  |  -2.305712   1.356973    -1.70   0.089     -4.96533     .353906
        1973  |  -2.936669   1.473911    -1.99   0.046    -5.825481   -.0478558
        1974  |  -1.267226   1.389008    -0.91   0.362    -3.989632     1.45518
        1975  |  -.9635807   1.304566    -0.74   0.460    -3.520483    1.593322
        1976  |  -.8077367   1.286998    -0.63   0.530    -3.330206    1.714732
        1977  |  -1.029448   1.279904    -0.80   0.421    -3.538015    1.479118
        1978  |   .2732775   1.319921     0.21   0.836     -2.31372    2.860275
        1979  |  -1.302626   1.298364    -1.00   0.316    -3.847372     1.24212
        1980  |  -1.081537   1.283434    -0.84   0.399    -3.597021    1.433947
        1981  |  -1.148738   1.321769    -0.87   0.385    -3.739357    1.441881
        1982  |  -.6512081    1.26685    -0.51   0.607    -3.134189    1.831772
        1983  |  -.8345967   1.292515    -0.65   0.518    -3.367879    1.698686
        1984  |  -.6029663   1.241758    -0.49   0.627    -3.036768    1.830836
        1985  |   -.852871   1.268296    -0.67   0.501    -3.338686    1.632944
        1986  |  -1.298637   1.293059    -1.00   0.315    -3.832985    1.235711
        1987  |  -1.086936   1.283711    -0.85   0.397    -3.602964    1.429092
        1988  |  -.2928012   1.251167    -0.23   0.815    -2.745044    2.159442
        1989  |  -1.900544   1.293489    -1.47   0.142    -4.435736    .6346469
        1990  |  -1.594153   1.322695    -1.21   0.228    -4.186587    .9982821
        1991  |  -1.831171   1.313929    -1.39   0.163    -4.406425    .7440831
        1992  |  -1.041187   1.327935    -0.78   0.433    -3.643891    1.561518
        1993  |  -1.760443   1.345349    -1.31   0.191    -4.397279    .8763936
        1994  |  -1.523665    1.41162    -1.08   0.280    -4.290388    1.243059
        1995  |  -1.736916   1.396229    -1.24   0.213    -4.473474    .9996418
        1996  |  -1.918905   1.395335    -1.38   0.169    -4.653711    .8159016
        1997  |  -1.875729   1.340805    -1.40   0.162    -4.503659    .7522018
        1998  |  -.9526964   1.328735    -0.72   0.473     -3.55697    1.651577
        1999  |  -.9950063   1.336969    -0.74   0.457    -3.615418    1.625405
        2000  |  -1.691322   1.339845    -1.26   0.207    -4.317371    .9347258
        2001  |  -2.202013   1.338399    -1.65   0.100    -4.825227     .421201
        2002  |  -1.476371   1.429708    -1.03   0.302    -4.278548    1.325806
        2003  |  -2.489872    1.61236    -1.54   0.123    -5.650038    .6702951
        2004  |  -1.359106   1.462997    -0.93   0.353    -4.226528    1.508316
        2005  |  -2.221416   1.533811    -1.45   0.148     -5.22763    .7847986
        2006  |  -3.417841   1.384608    -2.47   0.014    -6.131624   -.7040589
        2007  |  -3.155276   1.519323    -2.08   0.038    -6.133094   -.1774574
        2008  |  -3.046319   1.355129    -2.25   0.025    -5.702323   -.3903146
        2009  |  -2.762349   1.390947    -1.99   0.047    -5.488556   -.0361423
        2010  |  -3.312514   1.362133    -2.43   0.015    -5.982245    -.642783
        2011  |  -2.883558    1.42996    -2.02   0.044    -5.686228    -.080888
        2012  |  -3.288951   1.546997    -2.13   0.034    -6.321009    -.256892
        2013  |   -2.76856   1.357247    -2.04   0.041    -5.428715   -.1084055
        2014  |  -1.835254   1.413179    -1.30   0.194    -4.605034    .9345263
        2015  |  -2.478096   1.362804    -1.82   0.069    -5.149143    .1929506
              |
        _cons |  -3.474324   1.425204    -2.44   0.015    -6.267672   -.6809757
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.958269   .1883274                      1.589154    2.327384
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.662152    .250678                      2.213505    3.201733
          rho |   .6829629   .0407775                      .5982808    .7570432
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads
>  post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2015.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(73)     =     403.40
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -815.3774              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |   .5987871   .4234167     1.41   0.157    -.2310943    1.428669
incomp_rel_~f |   1.071162   .3737839     2.87   0.004     .3385592    1.803765
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.632562   .7696507     3.42   0.001     1.124074    4.141049
  incomp_terr |  -.9150654   .4376909    -2.09   0.037    -1.772924   -.0572069
       rr_grp |   .7331818   .2422592     3.03   0.002     .2583624    1.208001
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0541302   .0311932    -1.74   0.083    -.1152677    .0070072
 vdem_rescale |  -.0396267    .056044    -0.71   0.480    -.1494709    .0702176
vdem_rescal~q |   .0078433   .0080801     0.97   0.332    -.0079935    .0236801
 active_dyads |   .1035849   .1352094     0.77   0.444    -.1614207    .3685905
post_cold_war |  -2.478096   1.362804    -1.82   0.069    -5.149143    .1929506
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.279167   1.295923    -0.99   0.324     -3.81913    1.260796
        1952  |   -1.60709   1.432092    -1.12   0.262    -4.413939    1.199759
        1953  |   .1869831   1.413277     0.13   0.895    -2.582988    2.956954
        1954  |  -2.959297   1.538731    -1.92   0.054    -5.975154    .0565608
        1955  |  -1.215158   2.098314    -0.58   0.563    -5.327779    2.897462
        1956  |   -2.19048   2.258329    -0.97   0.332    -6.616723    2.235764
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.482446   1.877869    -0.79   0.430    -5.163001    2.198109
        1959  |  -2.288057    2.03154    -1.13   0.260    -6.269802    1.693688
        1960  |  -3.270526   1.611419    -2.03   0.042    -6.428848   -.1122034
        1961  |  -.8470512   1.519072    -0.56   0.577    -3.824379    2.130276
        1962  |  -.3630001   1.555397    -0.23   0.815    -3.411523    2.685523
        1963  |  -.6521204   1.495751    -0.44   0.663    -3.583738    2.279497
        1964  |  -1.296378   1.346245    -0.96   0.336     -3.93497    1.342214
        1965  |  -1.529245   1.399584    -1.09   0.275    -4.272378    1.213889
        1966  |  -1.305525   1.311305    -1.00   0.319    -3.875636    1.264585
        1967  |  -1.380735   1.307908    -1.06   0.291    -3.944188    1.182719
        1968  |  -1.637659   1.263861    -1.30   0.195     -4.11478    .8394627
        1969  |  -1.313756   1.310526    -1.00   0.316    -3.882341    1.254828
        1970  |  -1.381999   1.288428    -1.07   0.283    -3.907272    1.143273
        1971  |  -.4685399   1.120505    -0.42   0.676    -2.664689     1.72761
        1972  |  -2.305712   1.356973    -1.70   0.089     -4.96533     .353906
        1973  |  -2.936669   1.473911    -1.99   0.046    -5.825481   -.0478558
        1974  |  -1.267226   1.389008    -0.91   0.362    -3.989632     1.45518
        1975  |  -.9635807   1.304566    -0.74   0.460    -3.520483    1.593322
        1976  |  -.8077367   1.286998    -0.63   0.530    -3.330206    1.714732
        1977  |  -1.029448   1.279904    -0.80   0.421    -3.538015    1.479118
        1978  |   .2732775   1.319921     0.21   0.836     -2.31372    2.860275
        1979  |  -1.302626   1.298364    -1.00   0.316    -3.847372     1.24212
        1980  |  -1.081537   1.283434    -0.84   0.399    -3.597021    1.433947
        1981  |  -1.148738   1.321769    -0.87   0.385    -3.739357    1.441881
        1982  |  -.6512081    1.26685    -0.51   0.607    -3.134189    1.831772
        1983  |  -.8345967   1.292515    -0.65   0.518    -3.367879    1.698686
        1984  |  -.6029663   1.241758    -0.49   0.627    -3.036768    1.830836
        1985  |   -.852871   1.268296    -0.67   0.501    -3.338686    1.632944
        1986  |  -1.298637   1.293059    -1.00   0.315    -3.832985    1.235711
        1987  |  -1.086936   1.283711    -0.85   0.397    -3.602964    1.429092
        1988  |  -.2928012   1.251167    -0.23   0.815    -2.745044    2.159442
        1989  |  -1.900544   1.293489    -1.47   0.142    -4.435736    .6346469
        1990  |  -1.594153   1.322695    -1.21   0.228    -4.186587    .9982821
        1991  |   .6469251   .8216562     0.79   0.431    -.9634914    2.257342
        1992  |    1.43691    .839525     1.71   0.087     -.208529    3.082349
        1993  |   .7176534   .8973167     0.80   0.424    -1.041055    2.476362
        1994  |   .9544313   .9899544     0.96   0.335    -.9858436    2.894706
        1995  |   .7411804     .94541     0.78   0.433    -1.111789     2.59415
        1996  |   .5591918   .9659652     0.58   0.563    -1.334065    2.452449
        1997  |   .6023677   .8671678     0.69   0.487     -1.09725    2.301985
        1998  |     1.5254   .8358417     1.82   0.068    -.1128197    3.163619
        1999  |    1.48309   .8403705     1.76   0.078    -.1640059    3.130186
        2000  |   .7867739   .8641606     0.91   0.363    -.9069497    2.480498
        2001  |   .2760834   .8350015     0.33   0.741    -1.360489    1.912656
        2002  |   1.001726   .9453961     1.06   0.289    -.8512166    2.854668
        2003  |  -.0117753    1.27358    -0.01   0.993    -2.507947    2.484397
        2004  |   1.118991   1.056686     1.06   0.290     -.952076    3.190057
        2005  |   .2566804   1.048673     0.24   0.807     -1.79868    2.312041
        2006  |   -.939745   .7111519    -1.32   0.186    -2.333577    .4540871
        2007  |  -.6771792   .9571579    -0.71   0.479    -2.553174    1.198816
        2008  |  -.5682227   .6404738    -0.89   0.375    -1.823528    .6870829
        2009  |   -.284253   .7405306    -0.38   0.701    -1.735666     1.16716
        2010  |  -.8344175   .5733441    -1.46   0.146    -1.958151    .2893163
        2011  |  -.4054617   .9412872    -0.43   0.667    -2.250351    1.439427
        2012  |  -.8108544   .8986903    -0.90   0.367    -2.572255    .9505463
        2013  |   -.290464   .5386605    -0.54   0.590    -1.346219    .7652911
        2014  |   .6428425   .8262118     0.78   0.437    -.9765028    2.262188
        2015  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -3.474324   1.425204    -2.44   0.015    -6.267672   -.6809757
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.958269   .1883274                      1.589154    2.327384
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.662152    .250678                      2.213505    3.201733
          rho |   .6829629   .0407775                      .5982808    .7570432
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(c.incomp_ideology_all c.incomp_rel_a
> ff) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_re
> scale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust) nolog
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2015.year omitted because of collinearity

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(75)     =     428.00
Log pseudolikelihood  = -814.36823              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.383575   1.512437    -2.24   0.025    -6.347896   -.4192532
incomp_ideo~l |   .2929915   .5614685     0.52   0.602    -.8074665     1.39345
incomp_rel_~f |   .8105534   .4815921     1.68   0.092    -.1333497    1.754457
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_ideo~l |
           1  |   .7008475   .6119236     1.15   0.252    -.4985007    1.900196
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .5040062   .6873988     0.73   0.463    -.8432706    1.851283
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.667865   .7588542     3.52   0.000     1.180538    4.155192
  incomp_terr |  -.8721263   .4371389    -2.00   0.046    -1.728903   -.0153499
       rr_grp |   .7730459    .244022     3.17   0.002     .2947715     1.25132
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0543814    .031392    -1.73   0.083    -.1159086    .0071457
 vdem_rescale |  -.0414044   .0564413    -0.73   0.463    -.1520273    .0692185
vdem_rescal~q |   .0064862   .0080659     0.80   0.421    -.0093226    .0222949
 active_dyads |   .0978875   .1360731     0.72   0.472    -.1688109    .3645859
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.301545   1.292964    -1.01   0.314    -3.835708    1.232619
        1952  |  -1.632338   1.437284    -1.14   0.256    -4.449362    1.184687
        1953  |   .1426802   1.400881     0.10   0.919    -2.602996    2.888356
        1954  |  -3.001822   1.537425    -1.95   0.051    -6.015121    .0114757
        1955  |  -1.271094   2.049525    -0.62   0.535    -5.288089      2.7459
        1956  |  -2.168394   2.235907    -0.97   0.332    -6.550691    2.213903
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.539085   1.858933    -0.83   0.408    -5.182527    2.104356
        1959  |  -2.296055   2.022786    -1.14   0.256    -6.260643    1.668533
        1960  |  -3.348933   1.607818    -2.08   0.037    -6.500198   -.1976676
        1961  |  -.9215612   1.504282    -0.61   0.540      -3.8699    2.026778
        1962  |  -.4357812   1.539364    -0.28   0.777    -3.452878    2.581316
        1963  |  -.7759224   1.536501    -0.50   0.614     -3.78741    2.235565
        1964  |  -1.430701   1.378381    -1.04   0.299    -4.132278    1.270877
        1965  |  -1.666921   1.422953    -1.17   0.241    -4.455857    1.122016
        1966  |  -1.427771   1.332106    -1.07   0.284    -4.038651    1.183109
        1967  |  -1.500166   1.328922    -1.13   0.259    -4.104806    1.104474
        1968  |  -1.752184   1.256988    -1.39   0.163    -4.215834    .7114669
        1969  |   -1.43879   1.305706    -1.10   0.270    -3.997926    1.120346
        1970  |  -1.504779   1.278631    -1.18   0.239    -4.010849    1.001291
        1971  |  -.6179787   1.121973    -0.55   0.582    -2.817006    1.581049
        1972  |  -2.447955   1.338656    -1.83   0.067    -5.071672    .1757615
        1973  |  -3.009528   1.422727    -2.12   0.034    -5.798022   -.2210338
        1974  |  -1.393006   1.379072    -1.01   0.312    -4.095938    1.309926
        1975  |  -1.076266   1.303018    -0.83   0.409    -3.630134    1.477603
        1976  |  -.9352235   1.286075    -0.73   0.467    -3.455883    1.585436
        1977  |  -1.147361   1.276716    -0.90   0.369    -3.649679    1.354957
        1978  |   .1496409   1.324569     0.11   0.910    -2.446467    2.745749
        1979  |  -1.437574    1.29545    -1.11   0.267    -3.976609    1.101461
        1980  |  -1.215129   1.278041    -0.95   0.342    -3.720045    1.289786
        1981  |  -1.279155   1.330157    -0.96   0.336    -3.886215    1.327904
        1982  |  -.7840633   1.267496    -0.62   0.536    -3.268309    1.700183
        1983  |  -.9607862   1.298823    -0.74   0.459    -3.506433    1.584861
        1984  |  -.7274488   1.252894    -0.58   0.562    -3.183075    1.728178
        1985  |  -.9825794   1.278566    -0.77   0.442    -3.488523    1.523364
        1986  |  -1.449547   1.294648    -1.12   0.263     -3.98701    1.087917
        1987  |  -1.224107   1.294931    -0.95   0.345    -3.762125     1.31391
        1988  |  -.4339769   1.252647    -0.35   0.729    -2.889121    2.021167
        1989  |  -2.038549   1.294711    -1.57   0.115    -4.576135    .4990376
        1990  |  -1.729813   1.322676    -1.31   0.191    -4.322211    .8625843
        1991  |   .6930772    .821938     0.84   0.399    -.9178918    2.304046
        1992  |   1.443757   .8394942     1.72   0.085     -.201621    3.089136
        1993  |   .7209029   .8925723     0.81   0.419    -1.028507    2.470312
        1994  |   1.000717   .9883215     1.01   0.311    -.9363571    2.937792
        1995  |   .7600837   .9549825     0.80   0.426    -1.111648    2.631815
        1996  |   .5589319   .9737782     0.57   0.566    -1.349638    2.467502
        1997  |   .5934012   .8687559     0.68   0.495    -1.109329    2.296132
        1998  |    1.52444   .8400488     1.81   0.070    -.1220257    3.170905
        1999  |   1.471152   .8368439     1.76   0.079    -.1690315    3.111336
        2000  |   .7647635   .8601944     0.89   0.374    -.9211866    2.450714
        2001  |   .2307709   .8360704     0.28   0.783    -1.407897    1.869439
        2002  |   .9750518   .9518345     1.02   0.306    -.8905096    2.840613
        2003  |  -.0028743   1.267175    -0.00   0.998    -2.486492    2.480743
        2004  |   1.109562   1.052488     1.05   0.292    -.9532756      3.1724
        2005  |    .217877   1.062648     0.21   0.838    -1.864875    2.300629
        2006  |  -.9865531   .6982489    -1.41   0.158    -2.355096    .3819895
        2007  |  -.7309347   .9482292    -0.77   0.441     -2.58943     1.12756
        2008  |  -.6089441   .6277484    -0.97   0.332    -1.839308    .6214202
        2009  |  -.3245073   .7414229    -0.44   0.662    -1.777669    1.128655
        2010  |  -.8596114   .5764827    -1.49   0.136    -1.989497     .270274
        2011  |  -.4452038   .9270285    -0.48   0.631    -2.262146    1.371739
        2012  |  -.8416528   .8843046    -0.95   0.341    -2.574858    .8915524
        2013  |  -.3128156   .5443368    -0.57   0.566    -1.379696     .754065
        2014  |   .6278588   .8194478     0.77   0.444    -.9782293    2.233947
        2015  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -3.038242   1.492937    -2.04   0.042    -5.964345   -.1121387
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.941105   .1918404                      1.565105    2.317106
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.639403    .253172                      2.187048     3.18532
          rho |   .6792349   .0417972                      .5924874    .7551477
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime act
> ive_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -9371629.4  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =   -6498402  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5287192.2  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2358806.6  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1402834.4  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -803856.99  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -429028.48  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood =  -404985.4  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -403618.93  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -403613.68  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -403613.68  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334077.29  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6398.0551  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6281.9802  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6264.1238  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6200.6012  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6185.3419  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6116.9975  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6113.9638  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6113.9414  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -6113.9414  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -93430.239  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -12891.926  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7976.4903  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7452.4449  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6207.0148  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5974.1236  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5847.1716  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5840.3219  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5840.2552  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5840.2551  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        843
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        181

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.7
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(37)     =      86.73
Log likelihood  = -5840.2551                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.0564629   .1110787    -0.51   0.611    -.2741732    .1612473
incomp_rel_~f |   .0083101    .114787     0.07   0.942    -.2166683    .2332884
rebel_ext_m~t |   .4721779   .2737822     1.72   0.085    -.0644254    1.008781
  incomp_terr |  -.1926992   .1056416    -1.82   0.068     -.399753    .0143546
       rr_grp |  -.0645603   .0747724    -0.86   0.388    -.2111115    .0819909
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0017689   .0122887    -0.14   0.886    -.0258542    .0223165
 vdem_rescale |    .015052   .0109415     1.38   0.169    -.0063929    .0364969
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0009231   .0019529    -0.47   0.636    -.0047506    .0029045
     rcd_loot |  -.0171794   .0842212    -0.20   0.838    -.1822499    .1478912
    rcd_crime |   .3789284   .0920242     4.12   0.000     .1985644    .5592925
 active_dyads |  -.0072784   .0405247    -0.18   0.857    -.0867054    .0721486
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |    .000061   .0000112     5.46   0.000     .0000391     .000083
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2287243   .1775927    -1.29   0.198    -.5767997    .1193511
        1992  |   .1414314     .17362     0.81   0.415    -.1988576    .4817203
        1993  |  -.0364007    .178378    -0.20   0.838    -.3860153    .3132138
        1994  |  -.0295515   .1774632    -0.17   0.868    -.3773729      .31827
        1995  |  -.1805379   .1801213    -1.00   0.316    -.5335692    .1724933
        1996  |    .026585   .1890702     0.14   0.888    -.3439858    .3971559
        1997  |  -.1072087   .1906313    -0.56   0.574    -.4808391    .2664217
        1998  |  -.0779701   .1838773    -0.42   0.672    -.4383631    .2824228
        1999  |  -.0645228   .1838722    -0.35   0.726    -.4249057      .29586
        2000  |  -.0721344   .1838371    -0.39   0.695    -.4324484    .2881796
        2001  |  -.2997857   .1848308    -1.62   0.105    -.6620474    .0624761
        2002  |   .0329372   .1783872     0.18   0.854    -.3166952    .3825697
        2003  |  -.3062484   .1924484    -1.59   0.112    -.6834403    .0709435
        2004  |  -.1426682   .1905837    -0.75   0.454    -.5162054     .230869
        2005  |  -.1812356   .1986956    -0.91   0.362    -.5706718    .2082005
        2006  |  -.2394836   .1914397    -1.25   0.211    -.6146985    .1357313
        2007  |  -.1029071   .1933665    -0.53   0.595    -.4818984    .2760842
        2008  |  -.1065718   .1895096    -0.56   0.574    -.4780038    .2648601
        2009  |  -.1026424   .1871606    -0.55   0.583    -.4694706    .2641857
        2010  |  -.2990522   .1956997    -1.53   0.126    -.6826165    .0845121
        2011  |  -.4132667   .2003386    -2.06   0.039    -.8059232   -.0206103
        2012  |  -.2986649   .2099216    -1.42   0.155    -.7101036    .1127739
        2013  |  -.4865294   .2151026    -2.26   0.024    -.9081227    -.064936
        2014  |  -.2236365   .2027341    -1.10   0.270     -.620988     .173715
        2015  |  -.4238475   .2050629    -2.07   0.039    -.8257634   -.0219315
              |
        _cons |   .6096696   .3996784     1.53   0.127    -.1736856    1.393025
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0801734   .1182225                     -.3118853    .1515386
        /ln_s |   4.498054   .2035099                      4.099182    4.896927
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9229563   .1091142                      .7320655    1.163623
            s |   89.84217   18.28377                      60.29097    133.8777
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 547.37               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime act
> ive_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -176322.5  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -11718.692  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7936.2662  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6865.5508  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6132.4883  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5299.9978  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5142.3851  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5044.7529  (not concave)
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4761.6334  (not concave)
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4632.5042  (not concave)
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4584.1182  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood =  -4508.326  
Iteration 12:  log likelihood = -4405.1255  
Iteration 13:  log likelihood = -4358.5584  
Iteration 14:  log likelihood = -4356.1869  
Iteration 15:  log likelihood =  -4356.179  
Iteration 16:  log likelihood =  -4356.179  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        782
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        120

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(37)     =      98.55
Log likelihood  =  -4356.179                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.0405858   .1349298    -0.30   0.764    -.3050434    .2238718
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0545284   .1374584    -0.40   0.692     -.323942    .2148851
rebel_ext_m~t |   .1905803   .3555459     0.54   0.592    -.5062768    .8874374
  incomp_terr |  -.0963365    .124667    -0.77   0.440    -.3406794    .1480064
       rr_grp |  -.1888906   .0900014    -2.10   0.036    -.3652901   -.0124912
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0095523   .0155265     0.62   0.538    -.0208791    .0399837
 vdem_rescale |   .0344127   .0121288     2.84   0.005     .0106408    .0581847
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0014045   .0021345    -0.66   0.511    -.0055881     .002779
     rcd_loot |  -.0842305   .0926944    -0.91   0.364    -.2659082    .0974471
    rcd_crime |   .4640262   .1031008     4.50   0.000     .2619523    .6661002
 active_dyads |   .0184297   .0453444     0.41   0.684    -.0704438    .1073032
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000492   .0000124     3.97   0.000     .0000249    .0000734
              |
         year |
        1991  |   -.256396   .1799144    -1.43   0.154    -.6090217    .0962296
        1992  |   .1046518   .1841325     0.57   0.570    -.2562412    .4655448
        1993  |  -.0910013   .1923992    -0.47   0.636    -.4680968    .2860943
        1994  |   -.109753   .1939958    -0.57   0.572    -.4899779    .2704718
        1995  |  -.2514392   .1927994    -1.30   0.192     -.629319    .1264407
        1996  |  -.0395017   .2008144    -0.20   0.844    -.4330907    .3540873
        1997  |  -.2553797   .2051638    -1.24   0.213    -.6574933    .1467339
        1998  |  -.2365894   .2003823    -1.18   0.238    -.6293314    .1561527
        1999  |  -.2483425   .2018531    -1.23   0.219    -.6439674    .1472823
        2000  |  -.1845255   .1971484    -0.94   0.349    -.5709293    .2018784
        2001  |  -.4123487   .1969207    -2.09   0.036    -.7983061   -.0263913
        2002  |  -.0880275   .1893893    -0.46   0.642    -.4592238    .2831687
        2003  |  -.4420389   .2039335    -2.17   0.030    -.8417413   -.0423365
        2004  |  -.2793696   .1997659    -1.40   0.162    -.6709035    .1121644
        2005  |  -.3290801   .2082602    -1.58   0.114    -.7372626    .0791024
        2006  |  -.3791256   .2044618    -1.85   0.064    -.7798634    .0216123
        2007  |   -.244195   .2071977    -1.18   0.239    -.6502951    .1619051
        2008  |  -.2546091   .2075674    -1.23   0.220    -.6614338    .1522155
        2009  |  -.2066725   .2031987    -1.02   0.309    -.6049347    .1915896
        2010  |  -.4436806   .2122086    -2.09   0.037    -.8596019   -.0277593
        2011  |   -.596466   .2204876    -2.71   0.007    -1.028614   -.1643182
        2012  |  -.5417878   .2271968    -2.38   0.017    -.9870853   -.0964903
        2013  |  -.7550559   .2361377    -3.20   0.001    -1.217877   -.2922346
        2014  |  -.4224304   .2223311    -1.90   0.057    -.8581913    .0133306
        2015  |  -.6456698   .2291844    -2.82   0.005    -1.094863   -.1964767
              |
        _cons |   .7231909   .4970538     1.45   0.146    -.2510166    1.697398
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ********************

. 
. * Table A5-E. Determinants of Conflict Intensity – Specific ideological Incomp
> atibilities – Dyadic, GRP scores *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ********************

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads
>  i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1207.1961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.9516  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1055.7802  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1055.5934  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1055.5932  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1055.5932  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1055.5932
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -997.65369
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -958.57364
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -930.59586
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -909.71075
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -893.95859
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -882.85315
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood =  -877.0048
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -879.38543

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -877.07944  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -824.44885  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.06576  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -814.84011  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -814.83447  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -814.83447  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -814.8341  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -814.8341  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(75)     =     412.82
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -814.8341              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |    .456843   .4945353     0.92   0.356    -.5124285    1.426114
 Theological  |   1.002126   .5665954     1.77   0.077    -.1083806    2.112633
        Both  |   .9106697   .5250747     1.73   0.083    -.1184578    1.939797
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   1.004317   .3810842     2.64   0.008     .2574052    1.751228
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.692597   .7726062     3.49   0.000     1.178316    4.206877
  incomp_terr |  -.8395997   .4330054    -1.94   0.053    -1.688275    .0090754
       rr_grp |   .7010014   .2410675     2.91   0.004     .2285178    1.173485
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0548256   .0307861    -1.78   0.075    -.1151653    .0055141
 vdem_rescale |  -.0356199   .0564209    -0.63   0.528    -.1462029    .0749631
vdem_rescal~q |    .007365   .0082126     0.90   0.370    -.0087314    .0234614
 active_dyads |    .084929   .1302378     0.65   0.514    -.1703323    .3401904
              |
         year |
        1951  |   -1.26694   1.280876    -0.99   0.323    -3.777411     1.24353
        1952  |  -1.603901   1.417368    -1.13   0.258    -4.381891     1.17409
        1953  |   .1356578   1.382557     0.10   0.922    -2.574104     2.84542
        1954  |  -2.963544   1.530567    -1.94   0.053      -5.9634    .0363122
        1955  |  -1.255168   2.073081    -0.61   0.545    -5.318331    2.807996
        1956  |  -2.199027    2.24229    -0.98   0.327    -6.593835    2.195781
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.515572   1.858933    -0.82   0.415    -5.159013    2.127869
        1959  |  -2.295232   2.009075    -1.14   0.253    -6.232946    1.642482
        1960  |  -3.255176   1.598903    -2.04   0.042    -6.388968   -.1213843
        1961  |  -.8865057   1.499069    -0.59   0.554    -3.824628    2.051616
        1962  |   -.387815   1.534179    -0.25   0.800     -3.39475     2.61912
        1963  |  -.6957098   1.493051    -0.47   0.641    -3.622036    2.230616
        1964  |  -1.352705   1.343961    -1.01   0.314    -3.986819     1.28141
        1965  |  -1.577585   1.388842    -1.14   0.256    -4.299665    1.144494
        1966  |  -1.339085   1.301948    -1.03   0.304    -3.890857    1.212686
        1967  |  -1.414253   1.302221    -1.09   0.277    -3.966558    1.138053
        1968  |  -1.670795   1.249361    -1.34   0.181    -4.119498     .777907
        1969  |  -1.363159   1.292774    -1.05   0.292    -3.896951    1.170632
        1970  |  -1.434721   1.273247    -1.13   0.260     -3.93024    1.060798
        1971  |  -.5316893   1.109773    -0.48   0.632    -2.706805    1.643426
        1972  |   -2.36618   1.339701    -1.77   0.077    -4.991945    .2595849
        1973  |  -2.974357   1.447945    -2.05   0.040    -5.812276   -.1364369
        1974  |  -1.329422   1.371809    -0.97   0.332    -4.018118    1.359274
        1975  |  -1.033783   1.291108    -0.80   0.423    -3.564308    1.496743
        1976  |  -.8778347   1.278273    -0.69   0.492    -3.383204    1.627534
        1977  |  -1.095007   1.268988    -0.86   0.388    -3.582179    1.392165
        1978  |   .2034466   1.310656     0.16   0.877    -2.365393    2.772286
        1979  |  -1.388993   1.288486    -1.08   0.281    -3.914378    1.136393
        1980  |  -1.169974   1.274916    -0.92   0.359    -3.668764    1.328816
        1981  |  -1.229754     1.3212    -0.93   0.352    -3.819258    1.359751
        1982  |  -.7381591   1.259801    -0.59   0.558    -3.207323    1.731005
        1983  |  -.9216506   1.288171    -0.72   0.474    -3.446419    1.603118
        1984  |  -.6877392   1.236479    -0.56   0.578    -3.111194    1.735716
        1985  |   -.936361   1.261936    -0.74   0.458     -3.40971    1.536988
        1986  |  -1.390765   1.286801    -1.08   0.280    -3.912848    1.131319
        1987  |  -1.176756   1.286278    -0.91   0.360    -3.697815    1.344304
        1988  |  -.3918003   1.243754    -0.32   0.753    -2.829514    2.045914
        1989  |  -2.008454   1.297237    -1.55   0.122    -4.550992    .5340837
        1990  |  -1.705299   1.336604    -1.28   0.202    -4.324994    .9143956
        1991  |  -1.952715   1.325366    -1.47   0.141    -4.550384    .6449533
        1992  |  -1.191412   1.355894    -0.88   0.380    -3.848916    1.466092
        1993  |  -1.928789   1.379887    -1.40   0.162    -4.633318    .7757401
        1994  |   -1.67412   1.438317    -1.16   0.244     -4.49317     1.14493
        1995  |  -1.879839    1.41539    -1.33   0.184    -4.653953    .8942749
        1996  |  -2.058375   1.411525    -1.46   0.145    -4.824914    .7081637
        1997  |  -2.023168   1.362397    -1.49   0.138    -4.693418    .6470814
        1998  |  -1.107188   1.353935    -0.82   0.413    -3.760852    1.546476
        1999  |  -1.171837   1.380075    -0.85   0.396    -3.876735    1.533061
        2000  |  -1.863344   1.369746    -1.36   0.174    -4.547996    .8213084
        2001  |  -2.358675   1.372447    -1.72   0.086    -5.048623    .3312725
        2002  |  -1.639581   1.463196    -1.12   0.262    -4.507392     1.22823
        2003  |  -2.676331    1.66063    -1.61   0.107    -5.931106    .5784442
        2004  |  -1.551436    1.50284    -1.03   0.302     -4.49695    1.394077
        2005  |  -2.396484   1.563897    -1.53   0.125    -5.461666     .668698
        2006  |  -3.606634     1.4399    -2.50   0.012    -6.428786   -.7844822
        2007  |  -3.356212    1.56905    -2.14   0.032    -6.431494   -.2809303
        2008  |  -3.249545   1.406337    -2.31   0.021    -6.005915   -.4931748
        2009  |  -2.955629   1.441619    -2.05   0.040     -5.78115    -.130109
        2010  |   -3.52782    1.38448    -2.55   0.011    -6.241352   -.8142888
        2011  |  -3.043867   1.456345    -2.09   0.037    -5.898251   -.1894828
        2012  |   -3.48389   1.555384    -2.24   0.025    -6.532387   -.4353933
        2013  |  -2.963572   1.378137    -2.15   0.032    -5.664671    -.262474
        2014  |  -2.035667   1.434294    -1.42   0.156    -4.846832     .775498
        2015  |  -2.656525   1.368765    -1.94   0.052    -5.339255    .0262048
              |
        _cons |  -3.205812   1.487033    -2.16   0.031    -6.120343    -.291281
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.938149   .1904649                      1.564845    2.311453
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.635504   .2509855                      2.186763    3.176331
          rho |   .6785904   .0415414                      .5924245    .7541011
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_sup
> port incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads
>  post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2015.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1207.1961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.9516  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1055.7802  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1055.5934  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1055.5932  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1055.5932  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1055.5932
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -997.65369
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -958.57364
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -930.59586
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -909.71075
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -893.95859
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -882.85315
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood =  -877.0048
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -879.38543

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -877.07944  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -824.44885  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.06576  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -814.84011  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -814.83447  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -814.83447  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -814.8341  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -814.8341  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(75)     =     412.82
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -814.8341              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |    .456843   .4945353     0.92   0.356    -.5124285    1.426114
 Theological  |   1.002126   .5665954     1.77   0.077    -.1083806    2.112633
        Both  |   .9106697   .5250747     1.73   0.083    -.1184578    1.939797
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   1.004317   .3810842     2.64   0.008     .2574052    1.751228
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.692597   .7726062     3.49   0.000     1.178316    4.206877
  incomp_terr |  -.8395997   .4330054    -1.94   0.053    -1.688275    .0090754
       rr_grp |   .7010014   .2410675     2.91   0.004     .2285178    1.173485
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0548256   .0307861    -1.78   0.075    -.1151653    .0055141
 vdem_rescale |  -.0356199   .0564209    -0.63   0.528    -.1462029    .0749631
vdem_rescal~q |    .007365   .0082126     0.90   0.370    -.0087314    .0234614
 active_dyads |    .084929   .1302378     0.65   0.514    -.1703323    .3401904
post_cold_war |  -2.656525   1.368765    -1.94   0.052    -5.339255    .0262048
              |
         year |
        1951  |   -1.26694   1.280876    -0.99   0.323    -3.777411     1.24353
        1952  |  -1.603901   1.417368    -1.13   0.258    -4.381891     1.17409
        1953  |   .1356578   1.382557     0.10   0.922    -2.574104     2.84542
        1954  |  -2.963544   1.530567    -1.94   0.053      -5.9634    .0363122
        1955  |  -1.255168   2.073081    -0.61   0.545    -5.318331    2.807996
        1956  |  -2.199027    2.24229    -0.98   0.327    -6.593835    2.195781
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.515572   1.858933    -0.82   0.415    -5.159013    2.127869
        1959  |  -2.295232   2.009075    -1.14   0.253    -6.232946    1.642482
        1960  |  -3.255176   1.598903    -2.04   0.042    -6.388968   -.1213843
        1961  |  -.8865057   1.499069    -0.59   0.554    -3.824628    2.051616
        1962  |   -.387815   1.534179    -0.25   0.800     -3.39475     2.61912
        1963  |  -.6957098   1.493051    -0.47   0.641    -3.622036    2.230616
        1964  |  -1.352705   1.343961    -1.01   0.314    -3.986819     1.28141
        1965  |  -1.577585   1.388842    -1.14   0.256    -4.299665    1.144494
        1966  |  -1.339085   1.301948    -1.03   0.304    -3.890857    1.212686
        1967  |  -1.414253   1.302221    -1.09   0.277    -3.966558    1.138053
        1968  |  -1.670795   1.249361    -1.34   0.181    -4.119498     .777907
        1969  |  -1.363159   1.292774    -1.05   0.292    -3.896951    1.170632
        1970  |  -1.434721   1.273247    -1.13   0.260     -3.93024    1.060798
        1971  |  -.5316893   1.109773    -0.48   0.632    -2.706805    1.643426
        1972  |   -2.36618   1.339701    -1.77   0.077    -4.991945    .2595849
        1973  |  -2.974357   1.447945    -2.05   0.040    -5.812276   -.1364369
        1974  |  -1.329422   1.371809    -0.97   0.332    -4.018118    1.359274
        1975  |  -1.033783   1.291108    -0.80   0.423    -3.564308    1.496743
        1976  |  -.8778347   1.278273    -0.69   0.492    -3.383204    1.627534
        1977  |  -1.095007   1.268988    -0.86   0.388    -3.582179    1.392165
        1978  |   .2034466   1.310656     0.16   0.877    -2.365393    2.772286
        1979  |  -1.388993   1.288486    -1.08   0.281    -3.914378    1.136393
        1980  |  -1.169974   1.274916    -0.92   0.359    -3.668764    1.328816
        1981  |  -1.229754     1.3212    -0.93   0.352    -3.819258    1.359751
        1982  |  -.7381591   1.259801    -0.59   0.558    -3.207323    1.731005
        1983  |  -.9216506   1.288171    -0.72   0.474    -3.446419    1.603118
        1984  |  -.6877392   1.236479    -0.56   0.578    -3.111194    1.735716
        1985  |   -.936361   1.261936    -0.74   0.458     -3.40971    1.536988
        1986  |  -1.390765   1.286801    -1.08   0.280    -3.912848    1.131319
        1987  |  -1.176756   1.286278    -0.91   0.360    -3.697815    1.344304
        1988  |  -.3918003   1.243754    -0.32   0.753    -2.829514    2.045914
        1989  |  -2.008454   1.297237    -1.55   0.122    -4.550992    .5340837
        1990  |  -1.705299   1.336604    -1.28   0.202    -4.324994    .9143956
        1991  |   .7038097   .8147421     0.86   0.388    -.8930554    2.300675
        1992  |   1.465113   .8298955     1.77   0.077    -.1614523    3.091678
        1993  |   .7277359   .8932022     0.81   0.415    -1.022908     2.47838
        1994  |   .9824051   .9829531     1.00   0.318    -.9441477    2.908958
        1995  |   .7766858   .9359043     0.83   0.407    -1.057653    2.611025
        1996  |   .5981499   .9555379     0.63   0.531     -1.27467     2.47097
        1997  |   .6333569   .8519165     0.74   0.457    -1.036369    2.303083
        1998  |   1.549337   .8237217     1.88   0.060    -.0651278    3.163802
        1999  |   1.484688   .8368802     1.77   0.076    -.1555669    3.124943
        2000  |   .7931812   .8551339     0.93   0.354    -.8828503    2.469213
        2001  |   .2978499    .823899     0.36   0.718    -1.316963    1.912662
        2002  |   1.016944   .9366504     1.09   0.278    -.8188571    2.852745
        2003  |  -.0198056   1.282019    -0.02   0.988    -2.532517    2.492905
        2004  |   1.105089   1.058355     1.04   0.296    -.9692481    3.179425
        2005  |   .2600412   1.045736     0.25   0.804    -1.789563    2.309645
        2006  |  -.9501092   .7225282    -1.31   0.189    -2.366238    .4660201
        2007  |  -.6996872   .9679237    -0.72   0.470    -2.596783    1.197408
        2008  |  -.5930201   .6568014    -0.90   0.367    -1.880327    .6942871
        2009  |  -.2991043   .7512709    -0.40   0.691    -1.771568    1.173359
        2010  |  -.8712953   .5803443    -1.50   0.133    -2.008749    .2661586
        2011  |   -.387342   .9358182    -0.41   0.679    -2.221512    1.446828
        2012  |  -.8273652   .8970589    -0.92   0.356    -2.585568    .9308379
        2013  |  -.3070473    .543644    -0.56   0.572     -1.37257    .7584754
        2014  |    .620858   .8255228     0.75   0.452    -.9971369    2.238853
        2015  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -3.205812   1.487033    -2.16   0.031    -6.120343    -.291281
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.938149   .1904649                      1.564845    2.311453
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.635504   .2509855                      2.186763    3.176331
          rho |   .6785904   .0415414                      .5924245    .7541011
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.incomp_ideologies c.incomp_rel_aff
> ) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_resc
> ale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2015.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1207.1961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1052.9836  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1037.9252  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1037.6635  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1037.6631  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1037.6631  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1037.6631
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -984.30228
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood =  -948.3439
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -922.32695
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -902.73322
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -888.25519
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -878.20265
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -872.14766
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -872.34555

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -871.95969  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -819.21007  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -808.89369  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -808.64326  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -808.63386  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -808.63386  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -808.63102  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -808.63102  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(79)     =     461.82
Log pseudolikelihood  = -808.63102              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -3.770507   1.514236    -2.49   0.013    -6.738355   -.8026594
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |   .0617933   .5869686     0.11   0.916    -1.088644    1.212231
 Theological  |   1.076128   .8816867     1.22   0.222    -.6519461    2.804202
        Both  |   1.777286   .7299489     2.43   0.015     .3466128     3.20796
              |
incomp_rel_~f |   .7154542   .4853131     1.47   0.140     -.235742     1.66665
              |
post_cold_war#|
incomp_ideo~s |
   1#Secular  |   1.139368    .686795     1.66   0.097     -.206725    2.485462
           1 #|
 Theological  |   .4222535   .8586574     0.49   0.623    -1.260684    2.105191
      1#Both  |  -1.245906   .8307504    -1.50   0.134    -2.874147    .3823351
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
incomp_rel_~f |
           1  |   .5716054   .6705044     0.85   0.394     -.742559     1.88577
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.729814    .762969     3.58   0.000     1.234422    4.225205
  incomp_terr |   -.842611   .4403538    -1.91   0.056    -1.705689    .0204667
       rr_grp |   .6951138   .2473526     2.81   0.005     .2103117    1.179916
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0502273   .0312522    -1.61   0.108    -.1114805    .0110259
 vdem_rescale |  -.0361863   .0605342    -0.60   0.550    -.1548312    .0824586
vdem_rescal~q |   .0065718   .0082924     0.79   0.428     -.009681    .0228247
 active_dyads |   .0024526   .1212311     0.02   0.984     -.235156    .2400612
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.295737   1.273792    -1.02   0.309    -3.792324     1.20085
        1952  |  -1.609561   1.422035    -1.13   0.258    -4.396698    1.177577
        1953  |    .007405   1.326421     0.01   0.996    -2.592332    2.607142
        1954  |  -3.035172     1.5306    -1.98   0.047    -6.035093   -.0352522
        1955  |  -1.321292   2.022734    -0.65   0.514    -5.285778    2.643193
        1956  |  -2.199777   2.214281    -0.99   0.320    -6.539687    2.140133
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.614059   1.831726    -0.88   0.378    -5.204175    1.976058
        1959  |  -2.340704   2.000086    -1.17   0.242    -6.260802    1.579393
        1960  |  -3.375353   1.600519    -2.11   0.035    -6.512312   -.2383941
        1961  |  -1.059435   1.484393    -0.71   0.475    -3.968792    1.849923
        1962  |  -.5497276   1.521017    -0.36   0.718    -3.530867    2.431412
        1963  |  -.9311763    1.54789    -0.60   0.547    -3.964985    2.102632
        1964  |  -1.616178   1.384645    -1.17   0.243    -4.330032    1.097676
        1965  |  -1.839457   1.417891    -1.30   0.195    -4.618473    .9395577
        1966  |  -1.542838   1.332127    -1.16   0.247    -4.153758    1.068083
        1967  |   -1.62878    1.33103    -1.22   0.221    -4.237552    .9799914
        1968  |  -1.889816   1.239161    -1.53   0.127    -4.318527    .5388948
        1969  |   -1.59912   1.281875    -1.25   0.212    -4.111548    .9133083
        1970  |  -1.666594    1.25807    -1.32   0.185    -4.132365    .7991779
        1971  |  -.7928067   1.107209    -0.72   0.474    -2.962896    1.377282
        1972  |  -2.647547   1.315757    -2.01   0.044    -5.226383   -.0687116
        1973  |  -3.165359   1.382275    -2.29   0.022    -5.874569   -.4561496
        1974  |  -1.586203   1.357568    -1.17   0.243    -4.246987    1.074581
        1975  |  -1.269442   1.288563    -0.99   0.325     -3.79498    1.256096
        1976  |  -1.131304   1.281641    -0.88   0.377    -3.643274    1.380665
        1977  |  -1.318199   1.265849    -1.04   0.298    -3.799218     1.16282
        1978  |  -.0341987   1.315524    -0.03   0.979    -2.612579    2.544181
        1979  |  -1.726291   1.282767    -1.35   0.178    -4.240467    .7878853
        1980  |  -1.536703   1.273936    -1.21   0.228    -4.033572    .9601665
        1981  |  -1.572546   1.343643    -1.17   0.242    -4.206038    1.060947
        1982  |  -1.069587   1.263324    -0.85   0.397    -3.545657    1.406484
        1983  |  -1.239074   1.312282    -0.94   0.345      -3.8111    1.332952
        1984  |  -.9698749   1.259319    -0.77   0.441    -3.438096    1.498346
        1985  |  -1.233099   1.284268    -0.96   0.337    -3.750217     1.28402
        1986  |  -1.731939   1.300365    -1.33   0.183    -4.280608    .8167305
        1987  |  -1.497876   1.307521    -1.15   0.252     -4.06057    1.064817
        1988  |  -.7024114   1.264294    -0.56   0.579    -3.180381    1.775559
        1989  |  -2.401865   1.346928    -1.78   0.075    -5.041795    .2380656
        1990  |  -2.063174     1.3846    -1.49   0.136    -4.776939    .6505915
        1991  |   .8724058   .8002365     1.09   0.276    -.6960291    2.440841
        1992  |   1.462364    .817504     1.79   0.074    -.1399145    3.064642
        1993  |   .7868919   .8870671     0.89   0.375    -.9517276    2.525511
        1994  |   1.021338   .9663037     1.06   0.291    -.8725824    2.915259
        1995  |   .7942361   .9297822     0.85   0.393    -1.028103    2.616576
        1996  |   .6532579   .9443378     0.69   0.489     -1.19761    2.504126
        1997  |   .6376586   .8556772     0.75   0.456    -1.039438    2.314755
        1998  |   1.544449   .8243937     1.87   0.061    -.0713332    3.160231
        1999  |   1.466784   .8371956     1.75   0.080    -.1740897    3.107657
        2000  |   .7552895   .8506687     0.89   0.375    -.9119905    2.422569
        2001  |   .2959329   .8192097     0.36   0.718    -1.309689    1.901554
        2002  |   1.032178   .9491997     1.09   0.277    -.8282191    2.892575
        2003  |   .1117383   1.230694     0.09   0.928    -2.300379    2.523855
        2004  |   1.169931   1.031538     1.13   0.257    -.8518461    3.191707
        2005  |   .2470249   1.054433     0.23   0.815    -1.819625    2.313675
        2006  |   -.930599   .6974571    -1.33   0.182     -2.29759    .4363917
        2007  |  -.7552659   1.012024    -0.75   0.455    -2.738796    1.228265
        2008  |  -.6645235   .6364057    -1.04   0.296    -1.911856    .5828087
        2009  |  -.3834797   .7495844    -0.51   0.609    -1.852638    1.085679
        2010  |  -.9417376   .5832875    -1.61   0.106     -2.08496     .201485
        2011  |  -.3392482   .8949394    -0.38   0.705    -2.093297    1.414801
        2012  |  -.8229243   .8580646    -0.96   0.338      -2.5047    .8588514
        2013  |  -.2655623   .5538965    -0.48   0.632    -1.351179    .8200548
        2014  |   .6406585   .7981338     0.80   0.422     -.923655    2.204972
        2015  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -2.570602     1.5364    -1.67   0.094     -5.58189    .4406865
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.957758    .194554                      1.576439    2.339076
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.661471   .2588999                      2.199477    3.220505
          rho |   .6828521   .0421336                       .595221    .7591873
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime act
> ive_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -9260520.1  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6801631.2  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5187259.6  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2744097.9  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2241477.7  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =   -1316959  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood =  -481144.1  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -403024.56  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -395451.23  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -395431.36  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -395431.35  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334077.29  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6398.0551  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6281.9802  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6264.1238  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6200.3358  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6121.9114  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6108.0562  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6107.8573  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6107.8571  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -91728.699  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -12010.147  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7777.9552  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -6929.262  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6216.5499  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6067.1027  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5945.8001  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5903.2875  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood =  -5861.992  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5839.2622  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5839.1441  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -5839.1441  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        843
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        181

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.7
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(39)     =      88.96
Log likelihood  = -5839.1441                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.1384936    .125049    -1.11   0.268    -.3835852     .106598
 Theological  |    .050695   .1461911     0.35   0.729    -.2358343    .3372243
        Both  |  -.0016667   .1369224    -0.01   0.990    -.2700297    .2666964
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0431376   .1206389    -0.36   0.721    -.2795855    .1933103
rebel_ext_m~t |   .4945657   .2755715     1.79   0.073    -.0455445    1.034676
  incomp_terr |  -.1716143   .1066816    -1.61   0.108    -.3807064    .0374778
       rr_grp |  -.0852203   .0773249    -1.10   0.270    -.2367743    .0663336
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0017652   .0123016    -0.14   0.886     -.025876    .0223455
 vdem_rescale |   .0180051   .0111183     1.62   0.105    -.0037863    .0397966
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0007426   .0019663    -0.38   0.706    -.0045965    .0031112
     rcd_loot |  -.0172779   .0842288    -0.21   0.837    -.1823632    .1478075
    rcd_crime |   .3919665   .0922107     4.25   0.000     .2112368    .5726962
 active_dyads |  -.0208835   .0418413    -0.50   0.618    -.1028909     .061124
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000613   .0000112     5.48   0.000     .0000394    .0000832
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2340738   .1787911    -1.31   0.190    -.5844978    .1163503
        1992  |   .1232898    .175073     0.70   0.481    -.2198469    .4664266
        1993  |  -.0503721   .1791831    -0.28   0.779    -.4015646    .3008204
        1994  |  -.0626453   .1793213    -0.35   0.727    -.4141085     .288818
        1995  |  -.2003235   .1810131    -1.11   0.268    -.5551027    .1544557
        1996  |  -.0045244   .1904326    -0.02   0.981    -.3777654    .3687167
        1997  |  -.1226794   .1908934    -0.64   0.520    -.4968235    .2514648
        1998  |  -.0909406    .184187    -0.49   0.621    -.4519405    .2700594
        1999  |  -.0866356   .1850157    -0.47   0.640    -.4492598    .2759885
        2000  |  -.0941827   .1849475    -0.51   0.611    -.4566731    .2683078
        2001  |  -.3234118   .1859352    -1.74   0.082    -.6878382    .0410145
        2002  |   .0144655    .179202     0.08   0.936    -.3367639    .3656949
        2003  |  -.3277805   .1930409    -1.70   0.090    -.7061337    .0505727
        2004  |  -.1702904   .1916823    -0.89   0.374    -.5459808       .2054
        2005  |  -.2256441   .2015394    -1.12   0.263    -.6206539    .1693658
        2006  |  -.2654615   .1924694    -1.38   0.168    -.6426946    .1117716
        2007  |  -.1303351   .1944872    -0.67   0.503    -.5115231    .2508529
        2008  |  -.1413616   .1913138    -0.74   0.460    -.5163296    .2336065
        2009  |   -.136804   .1887061    -0.72   0.468    -.5066611    .2330531
        2010  |  -.3453722   .1989657    -1.74   0.083    -.7353378    .0445935
        2011  |  -.4545779   .2022247    -2.25   0.025     -.850931   -.0582248
        2012  |  -.3292641   .2103544    -1.57   0.118    -.7415512     .083023
        2013  |   -.516832   .2153835    -2.40   0.016    -.9389759    -.094688
        2014  |  -.2590035   .2034788    -1.27   0.203    -.6578145    .1398076
        2015  |  -.4530206   .2055587    -2.20   0.028    -.8559082    -.050133
              |
        _cons |   .7100778   .4058346     1.75   0.080    -.0853433    1.505499
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0680953   .1188798                     -.3010954    .1649047
        /ln_s |   4.527161   .2042023                      4.126932     4.92739
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9341714   .1110541                      .7400072    1.179281
            s |   92.49561   18.88782                      61.98746    138.0189
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 537.43               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.incomp_ideologies incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime act
> ive_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -134490.81  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -9057.4985  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7218.2324  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5827.7382  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4918.7029  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4765.6977  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4486.3544  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4364.1025  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4355.6742  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4355.6383  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4355.6383  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        782
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        120

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(39)     =      99.72
Log likelihood  = -4355.6383                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.0692652   .1532564    -0.45   0.651    -.3696421    .2311118
 Theological  |    .077878   .1755258     0.44   0.657    -.2661462    .4219022
        Both  |  -.0707394   .1620934    -0.44   0.663    -.3884366    .2469577
              |
incomp_rel_~f |  -.0837049   .1470963    -0.57   0.569    -.3720082    .2045985
rebel_ext_m~t |    .181355   .3561135     0.51   0.611    -.5166146    .8793247
  incomp_terr |  -.0761463   .1264346    -0.60   0.547    -.3239535    .1716609
       rr_grp |  -.2221022   .0951888    -2.33   0.020    -.4086688   -.0355355
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0093095   .0155242     0.60   0.549    -.0211174    .0397364
 vdem_rescale |   .0368059   .0123979     2.97   0.003     .0125064    .0611054
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0010564   .0021584    -0.49   0.625    -.0052868     .003174
     rcd_loot |  -.0879811   .0931234    -0.94   0.345    -.2704995    .0945373
    rcd_crime |   .4771603   .1039311     4.59   0.000      .273459    .6808616
 active_dyads |   .0155889   .0473581     0.33   0.742    -.0772312     .108409
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000487   .0000124     3.93   0.000     .0000244     .000073
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2525805   .1804153    -1.40   0.162    -.6061879     .101027
        1992  |   .0906915   .1846575     0.49   0.623    -.2712305    .4526135
        1993  |  -.0950882   .1924028    -0.49   0.621    -.4721907    .2820143
        1994  |  -.1210339   .1945532    -0.62   0.534    -.5023511    .2602834
        1995  |  -.2653891   .1930745    -1.37   0.169    -.6438081    .1130299
        1996  |  -.0530881   .2013271    -0.26   0.792     -.447682    .3415057
        1997  |  -.2590995   .2049164    -1.26   0.206    -.6607283    .1425293
        1998  |  -.2356455    .200245    -1.18   0.239    -.6281185    .1568276
        1999  |  -.2555249   .2020942    -1.26   0.206    -.6516223    .1405725
        2000  |  -.1963017   .1972754    -1.00   0.320    -.5829544     .190351
        2001  |  -.4201359    .197003    -2.13   0.033    -.8062547   -.0340171
        2002  |  -.0964606     .18951    -0.51   0.611    -.4678932    .2749721
        2003  |  -.4484366   .2037069    -2.20   0.028    -.8476948   -.0491784
        2004  |  -.2857991   .2001094    -1.43   0.153    -.6780063    .1064081
        2005  |  -.3352512   .2102642    -1.59   0.111    -.7473614     .076859
        2006  |  -.3841636   .2045893    -1.88   0.060    -.7851513    .0168241
        2007  |  -.2549032   .2073073    -1.23   0.219    -.6612179    .1514116
        2008  |  -.2786073   .2086032    -1.34   0.182     -.687462    .1302474
        2009  |  -.2287858   .2041566    -1.12   0.262    -.6289254    .1713538
        2010  |   -.475284   .2142783    -2.22   0.027    -.8952618   -.0553062
        2011  |  -.6131511   .2205222    -2.78   0.005    -1.045367   -.1809354
        2012  |  -.5496507   .2268918    -2.42   0.015    -.9943505   -.1049509
        2013  |  -.7608433   .2356326    -3.23   0.001    -1.222675   -.2990119
        2014  |  -.4407544     .22185    -1.99   0.047    -.8755725   -.0059364
        2015  |  -.6625195   .2285699    -2.90   0.004    -1.110508   -.2145307
              |
        _cons |   .8096598   .5068257     1.60   0.110    -.1837004     1.80302
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ****

. 
. * Table A6-E. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Any Ideological Claim - Mon
> adic, GRP scores *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ****

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if
>  obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1207.1961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1078.4668  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.1813  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.0121  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.0119  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.0119  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1067.0119
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1007.9814
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -967.55683
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -938.35119
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -916.53124
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -900.40622
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -889.25745
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -881.31642
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -882.69273

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -881.80556  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -827.07801  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -818.18361  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -817.8778  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.87117  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.87117  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -817.8698  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -817.8698  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(73)     =     325.77
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -817.8698              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .9444245   .6857858     1.38   0.168    -.3996909     2.28854
claim_ideol~y |    .641881   .3662739     1.75   0.080    -.0760027    1.359765
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.846168    .830418     3.43   0.001     1.218578    4.473757
  incomp_terr |  -.3316743   .4289553    -0.77   0.439    -1.172411    .5090625
       rr_grp |    .574003   .2321926     2.47   0.013     .1189138    1.029092
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0639461   .0312838    -2.04   0.041    -.1252612    -.002631
 vdem_rescale |  -.0237187   .0529439    -0.45   0.654    -.1274869    .0800495
vdem_rescal~q |   .0081875   .0078691     1.04   0.298    -.0072356    .0236106
 active_dyads |   .0842999   .1338092     0.63   0.529    -.1779612    .3465611
              |
         year |
        1951  |   -1.17746   1.244603    -0.95   0.344    -3.616836    1.261917
        1952  |  -1.500044    1.40894    -1.06   0.287    -4.261515    1.261427
        1953  |   .0592243   1.329421     0.04   0.964    -2.546393    2.664841
        1954  |  -3.245428   1.539857    -2.11   0.035    -6.263492   -.2273641
        1955  |  -1.458706   2.069648    -0.70   0.481    -5.515141    2.597728
        1956  |  -2.317714   2.263251    -1.02   0.306    -6.753604    2.118175
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.664179   1.845726    -0.90   0.367    -5.281735    1.953377
        1959  |  -2.390861   2.020247    -1.18   0.237    -6.350472    1.568751
        1960  |  -3.406073   1.584936    -2.15   0.032     -6.51249   -.2996555
        1961  |  -1.112863   1.456731    -0.76   0.445    -3.968003    1.742277
        1962  |  -.6297133   1.471014    -0.43   0.669    -3.512848    2.253421
        1963  |  -.9207782   1.438415    -0.64   0.522     -3.74002    1.898463
        1964  |  -1.673387   1.280696    -1.31   0.191    -4.183505    .8367318
        1965  |  -1.914338   1.329887    -1.44   0.150    -4.520868    .6921923
        1966  |   -1.66002   1.247641    -1.33   0.183    -4.105351    .7853108
        1967  |  -1.719788   1.230743    -1.40   0.162       -4.132    .6924245
        1968  |  -1.969295   1.204036    -1.64   0.102    -4.329162    .3905721
        1969  |  -1.675115    1.26041    -1.33   0.184    -4.145473    .7952428
        1970  |  -1.766826    1.22376    -1.44   0.149    -4.165351     .631699
        1971  |  -.8332318   1.051448    -0.79   0.428    -2.894033    1.227569
        1972  |   -2.67333   1.299424    -2.06   0.040    -5.220154   -.1265069
        1973  |  -3.239116     1.3756    -2.35   0.019    -5.935243   -.5429893
        1974  |  -1.610741   1.337931    -1.20   0.229    -4.233038    1.011556
        1975  |  -1.339033   1.270994    -1.05   0.292    -3.830136     1.15207
        1976  |  -1.175013   1.263111    -0.93   0.352    -3.650666     1.30064
        1977  |  -1.407751   1.247641    -1.13   0.259    -3.853082     1.03758
        1978  |  -.1127231   1.274841    -0.09   0.930    -2.611366     2.38592
        1979  |  -1.709675   1.254771    -1.36   0.173    -4.168981     .749632
        1980  |  -1.462454   1.220817    -1.20   0.231    -3.855212    .9303034
        1981  |  -1.511579   1.250691    -1.21   0.227     -3.96289    .9397309
        1982  |  -1.011926   1.198477    -0.84   0.398    -3.360898    1.337047
        1983  |  -1.199276   1.226901    -0.98   0.328    -3.603957    1.205406
        1984  |  -.9519039   1.186288    -0.80   0.422    -3.276985    1.373177
        1985  |  -1.233983   1.204774    -1.02   0.306    -3.595296    1.127331
        1986  |  -1.743767   1.234877    -1.41   0.158    -4.164082    .6765475
        1987  |  -1.455833    1.21587    -1.20   0.231    -3.838895    .9272281
        1988  |  -.7021547   1.208308    -0.58   0.561    -3.070395    1.666086
        1989  |  -2.339339   1.238176    -1.89   0.059    -4.766119    .0874417
        1990  |  -2.047395    1.25316    -1.63   0.102    -4.503544    .4087543
        1991  |  -2.269748   1.251714    -1.81   0.070    -4.723063     .183567
        1992  |  -1.516977    1.26109    -1.20   0.229    -3.988667    .9547141
        1993  |  -2.214684   1.268081    -1.75   0.081    -4.700078    .2707101
        1994  |  -1.957706   1.340701    -1.46   0.144    -4.585431    .6700184
        1995  |  -2.128813   1.323757    -1.61   0.108     -4.72333    .4657041
        1996  |   -2.27594   1.315514    -1.73   0.084      -4.8543    .3024195
        1997  |  -2.222926   1.264297    -1.76   0.079    -4.700902    .2550504
        1998  |  -1.318279   1.264059    -1.04   0.297     -3.79579    1.159231
        1999  |  -1.363668   1.284044    -1.06   0.288    -3.880349    1.153012
        2000  |  -2.046856   1.288965    -1.59   0.112    -4.573181    .4794688
        2001  |  -2.545956   1.277664    -1.99   0.046    -5.050132   -.0417801
        2002  |  -1.845034   1.380878    -1.34   0.182    -4.551506    .8614373
        2003  |  -2.885456   1.588086    -1.82   0.069    -5.998047    .2271346
        2004  |  -1.757637   1.407828    -1.25   0.212    -4.516929    1.001656
        2005  |  -2.576346   1.485413    -1.73   0.083    -5.487703    .3350098
        2006  |   -3.75163   1.340983    -2.80   0.005    -6.379907   -1.123352
        2007  |  -3.487786   1.475312    -2.36   0.018    -6.379344    -.596228
        2008  |  -3.397416   1.306063    -2.60   0.009    -5.957252   -.8375801
        2009  |  -3.056707    1.32191    -2.31   0.021    -5.647604   -.4658102
        2010  |   -3.64919   1.294324    -2.82   0.005    -6.186019   -1.112361
        2011  |  -3.098305   1.388961    -2.23   0.026    -5.820618   -.3759922
        2012  |  -3.595881   1.497174    -2.40   0.016    -6.530288   -.6614739
        2013  |  -3.072644   1.302809    -2.36   0.018    -5.626102   -.5191859
        2014  |  -2.204378   1.359162    -1.62   0.105    -4.868287    .4595306
        2015  |  -2.856456   1.332666    -2.14   0.032    -5.468434   -.2444786
              |
        _cons |  -3.062153   1.409835    -2.17   0.030    -5.825379   -.2989275
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.972414   .1917975                      1.596498    2.348331
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.681046    .257109                      2.221648    3.235441
          rho |   .6860177   .0413127                      .6000446    .7608751
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incom
> p_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold
> _war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2015.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1207.1961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1078.4668  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.1813  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.0121  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.0119  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1067.0119  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1067.0119
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1007.9814
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -967.55683
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -938.35119
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -916.53124
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -900.40622
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -889.25745
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -881.31642
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -882.69273

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -881.80556  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -827.07801  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -818.18361  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -817.8778  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.87117  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.87117  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -817.8698  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -817.8698  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(73)     =     325.77
Log pseudolikelihood  =  -817.8698              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .9444245   .6857858     1.38   0.168    -.3996909     2.28854
claim_ideol~y |    .641881   .3662739     1.75   0.080    -.0760027    1.359765
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.846168    .830418     3.43   0.001     1.218578    4.473757
  incomp_terr |  -.3316743   .4289553    -0.77   0.439    -1.172411    .5090625
       rr_grp |    .574003   .2321926     2.47   0.013     .1189138    1.029092
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0639461   .0312838    -2.04   0.041    -.1252612    -.002631
 vdem_rescale |  -.0237187   .0529439    -0.45   0.654    -.1274869    .0800495
vdem_rescal~q |   .0081875   .0078691     1.04   0.298    -.0072356    .0236106
 active_dyads |   .0842999   .1338092     0.63   0.529    -.1779612    .3465611
post_cold_war |  -2.856456   1.332666    -2.14   0.032    -5.468434   -.2444786
              |
         year |
        1951  |   -1.17746   1.244603    -0.95   0.344    -3.616836    1.261917
        1952  |  -1.500044    1.40894    -1.06   0.287    -4.261515    1.261427
        1953  |   .0592243   1.329421     0.04   0.964    -2.546393    2.664841
        1954  |  -3.245428   1.539857    -2.11   0.035    -6.263492   -.2273641
        1955  |  -1.458706   2.069648    -0.70   0.481    -5.515141    2.597728
        1956  |  -2.317714   2.263251    -1.02   0.306    -6.753604    2.118175
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.664179   1.845726    -0.90   0.367    -5.281735    1.953377
        1959  |  -2.390861   2.020247    -1.18   0.237    -6.350472    1.568751
        1960  |  -3.406073   1.584936    -2.15   0.032     -6.51249   -.2996555
        1961  |  -1.112863   1.456731    -0.76   0.445    -3.968003    1.742277
        1962  |  -.6297133   1.471014    -0.43   0.669    -3.512848    2.253421
        1963  |  -.9207782   1.438415    -0.64   0.522     -3.74002    1.898463
        1964  |  -1.673387   1.280696    -1.31   0.191    -4.183505    .8367318
        1965  |  -1.914338   1.329887    -1.44   0.150    -4.520868    .6921923
        1966  |   -1.66002   1.247641    -1.33   0.183    -4.105351    .7853108
        1967  |  -1.719788   1.230743    -1.40   0.162       -4.132    .6924245
        1968  |  -1.969295   1.204036    -1.64   0.102    -4.329162    .3905721
        1969  |  -1.675115    1.26041    -1.33   0.184    -4.145473    .7952428
        1970  |  -1.766826    1.22376    -1.44   0.149    -4.165351     .631699
        1971  |  -.8332318   1.051448    -0.79   0.428    -2.894033    1.227569
        1972  |   -2.67333   1.299424    -2.06   0.040    -5.220154   -.1265069
        1973  |  -3.239116     1.3756    -2.35   0.019    -5.935243   -.5429893
        1974  |  -1.610741   1.337931    -1.20   0.229    -4.233038    1.011556
        1975  |  -1.339033   1.270994    -1.05   0.292    -3.830136     1.15207
        1976  |  -1.175013   1.263111    -0.93   0.352    -3.650666     1.30064
        1977  |  -1.407751   1.247641    -1.13   0.259    -3.853082     1.03758
        1978  |  -.1127231   1.274841    -0.09   0.930    -2.611366     2.38592
        1979  |  -1.709675   1.254771    -1.36   0.173    -4.168981     .749632
        1980  |  -1.462454   1.220817    -1.20   0.231    -3.855212    .9303034
        1981  |  -1.511579   1.250691    -1.21   0.227     -3.96289    .9397309
        1982  |  -1.011926   1.198477    -0.84   0.398    -3.360898    1.337047
        1983  |  -1.199276   1.226901    -0.98   0.328    -3.603957    1.205406
        1984  |  -.9519039   1.186288    -0.80   0.422    -3.276985    1.373177
        1985  |  -1.233983   1.204774    -1.02   0.306    -3.595296    1.127331
        1986  |  -1.743767   1.234877    -1.41   0.158    -4.164082    .6765475
        1987  |  -1.455833    1.21587    -1.20   0.231    -3.838895    .9272281
        1988  |  -.7021547   1.208308    -0.58   0.561    -3.070395    1.666086
        1989  |  -2.339339   1.238176    -1.89   0.059    -4.766119    .0874417
        1990  |  -2.047395    1.25316    -1.63   0.102    -4.503544    .4087543
        1991  |   .5867085   .8356841     0.70   0.483    -1.051202    2.224619
        1992  |    1.33948   .8680321     1.54   0.123    -.3618318    3.040791
        1993  |   .6417726   .9239247     0.69   0.487    -1.169087    2.452632
        1994  |   .8987499   1.022416     0.88   0.379    -1.105149    2.902649
        1995  |   .7276436    .961976     0.76   0.449    -1.157795    2.613082
        1996  |    .580516   .9734161     0.60   0.551    -1.327345    2.488377
        1997  |   .6335306   .8853222     0.72   0.474    -1.101669     2.36873
        1998  |   1.538177   .8567884     1.80   0.073    -.1410974    3.217451
        1999  |   1.492788   .8637393     1.73   0.084    -.2001098    3.185686
        2000  |      .8096   .8847305     0.92   0.360    -.9244399     2.54364
        2001  |   .3105004   .8653296     0.36   0.720    -1.385515    2.006515
        2002  |   1.011422   .9633962     1.05   0.294    -.8767999    2.899644
        2003  |  -.0290001   1.310786    -0.02   0.982    -2.598094    2.540093
        2004  |    1.09882   1.069159     1.03   0.304    -.9966933    3.194333
        2005  |   .2801099   1.039331     0.27   0.788    -1.756941    2.317161
        2006  |  -.8951733   .7712598    -1.16   0.246    -2.406815     .616468
        2007  |  -.6313299    .987767    -0.64   0.523    -2.567318    1.304658
        2008  |  -.5409599   .6944616    -0.78   0.436     -1.90208    .8201598
        2009  |  -.2002507   .7577966    -0.26   0.792    -1.685505    1.285003
        2010  |  -.7927337   .5922942    -1.34   0.181    -1.953609    .3681415
        2011  |  -.2418486   .9941781    -0.24   0.808    -2.190402    1.706705
        2012  |  -.7394244   .9487147    -0.78   0.436    -2.598871    1.120022
        2013  |  -.2161879   .5560318    -0.39   0.697     -1.30599    .8736143
        2014  |   .6520782   .8403279     0.78   0.438    -.9949342    2.299091
        2015  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -3.062153   1.409835    -2.17   0.030    -5.825379   -.2989275
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.972414   .1917975                      1.596498    2.348331
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.681046    .257109                      2.221648    3.235441
          rho |   .6860177   .0413127                      .6000446    .7608751
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(c.rel_aff01 c.claim_ideology) rebel_
> ext_mil_support incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq a
> ctive_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2015.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1207.1961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1075.0002  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1062.4718  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1062.2125  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1062.2117  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1062.2117  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1062.2117
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1005.0149
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -965.59824
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -937.00507
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -915.53437
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -899.48213
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -887.96039
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -880.28065
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -881.59222

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -881.14701  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -826.3918  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.42813  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.12881  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.12171  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -817.1217  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.12021  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.12021  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(75)     =     399.06
Log pseudolikelihood  = -817.12021              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -2.542367   1.652948    -1.54   0.124    -5.782086    .6973511
    rel_aff01 |    .942788   .6754538     1.40   0.163    -.3810771    2.266653
claim_ideol~y |   .9190133   .4776399     1.92   0.054    -.0171437     1.85517
              |
post_cold_war#|
  c.rel_aff01 |
           1  |   -.023208   .9604201    -0.02   0.981    -1.905597    1.859181
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_ideol~y |
           1  |  -.6011478    .667276    -0.90   0.368    -1.908985    .7066891
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.832438   .8260101     3.43   0.001     1.213488    4.451388
  incomp_terr |  -.3259052   .4280547    -0.76   0.446    -1.164877    .5130666
       rr_grp |   .5718489   .2322701     2.46   0.014     .1166079     1.02709
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0634374   .0314159    -2.02   0.043    -.1250114   -.0018634
 vdem_rescale |  -.0230409    .051399    -0.45   0.654     -.123781    .0776992
vdem_rescal~q |   .0083485     .00782     1.07   0.286    -.0069784    .0236755
 active_dyads |   .0754924   .1325152     0.57   0.569    -.1842326    .3352175
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.152784   1.237189    -0.93   0.351     -3.57763    1.272063
        1952  |  -1.468578   1.407882    -1.04   0.297    -4.227977     1.29082
        1953  |   .0429382   1.311983     0.03   0.974    -2.528501    2.614377
        1954  |  -3.326371   1.541901    -2.16   0.031    -6.348441   -.3042999
        1955  |  -1.510763    2.12663    -0.71   0.477    -5.678882    2.657355
        1956  |  -2.385447   2.289121    -1.04   0.297    -6.872041    2.101147
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.732029   1.860411    -0.93   0.352    -5.378367    1.914309
        1959  |  -2.450382   2.038943    -1.20   0.229    -6.446636    1.545872
        1960  |  -3.480851   1.577265    -2.21   0.027    -6.572234   -.3894678
        1961  |  -1.196056   1.456951    -0.82   0.412    -4.051627    1.659516
        1962  |  -.7270096   1.469181    -0.49   0.621    -3.606552    2.152533
        1963  |   -1.01795   1.429059    -0.71   0.476    -3.818854    1.782953
        1964  |  -1.769919   1.269949    -1.39   0.163    -4.258974    .7191355
        1965  |  -2.021048   1.316657    -1.53   0.125    -4.601648    .5595518
        1966  |  -1.760713   1.231767    -1.43   0.153    -4.174933    .6535064
        1967  |  -1.818174    1.21345    -1.50   0.134    -4.196492     .560144
        1968  |  -2.067962   1.189734    -1.74   0.082    -4.399797    .2638735
        1969  |   -1.77285   1.243341    -1.43   0.154    -4.209753    .6640536
        1970  |  -1.865915   1.207257    -1.55   0.122    -4.232096    .5002654
        1971  |  -.9254075   1.033672    -0.90   0.371    -2.951367    1.100552
        1972  |  -2.773881   1.273548    -2.18   0.029    -5.269989   -.2777732
        1973  |  -3.359433    1.35505    -2.48   0.013    -6.015281   -.7035843
        1974  |  -1.709799   1.312985    -1.30   0.193    -4.283201    .8636039
        1975  |  -1.445717   1.245519    -1.16   0.246    -3.886889    .9954545
        1976  |  -1.277545   1.242623    -1.03   0.304    -3.713041    1.157952
        1977  |  -1.511044   1.226998    -1.23   0.218    -3.915916    .8938279
        1978  |  -.2156715   1.254107    -0.17   0.863    -2.673677    2.242334
        1979  |  -1.831452   1.237425    -1.48   0.139    -4.256761    .5938571
        1980  |  -1.579627   1.205568    -1.31   0.190    -3.942498    .7832432
        1981  |  -1.632118   1.235856    -1.32   0.187    -4.054352    .7901156
        1982  |  -1.132529   1.180401    -0.96   0.337    -3.446071    1.181014
        1983  |  -1.317405   1.213675    -1.09   0.278    -3.696165    1.061355
        1984  |  -1.072284   1.173757    -0.91   0.361    -3.372805    1.228237
        1985  |  -1.360187   1.182611    -1.15   0.250    -3.678063    .9576886
        1986  |  -1.862907   1.226529    -1.52   0.129    -4.266859    .5410452
        1987  |  -1.574344   1.201432    -1.31   0.190    -3.929108    .7804197
        1988  |  -.8272563   1.191283    -0.69   0.487    -3.162128    1.507615
        1989  |  -2.478828   1.225548    -2.02   0.043    -4.880858   -.0767993
        1990  |  -2.142995   1.238814    -1.73   0.084    -4.571026    .2850367
        1991  |   .6071736   .8265064     0.73   0.463    -1.012749    2.227096
        1992  |   1.329923   .8587003     1.55   0.121    -.3530982    3.012945
        1993  |    .643862   .9204325     0.70   0.484    -1.160153    2.447877
        1994  |   .8934301   1.018572     0.88   0.380    -1.102934    2.889795
        1995  |   .7352529   .9520311     0.77   0.440    -1.130694      2.6012
        1996  |   .6020783   .9614172     0.63   0.531    -1.282265    2.486421
        1997  |   .6571538   .8808431     0.75   0.456    -1.069267    2.383575
        1998  |   1.554766   .8501576     1.83   0.067    -.1115121    3.221044
        1999  |    1.53179   .8489692     1.80   0.071     -.132159    3.195739
        2000  |   .8330785   .8859555     0.94   0.347    -.9033624    2.569519
        2001  |   .3361513   .8619803     0.39   0.697    -1.353299    2.025602
        2002  |    1.03824   .9544608     1.09   0.277    -.8324684    2.908949
        2003  |  -.0050468   1.304138    -0.00   0.997     -2.56111    2.551016
        2004  |   1.124367    1.06458     1.06   0.291    -.9621706    3.210905
        2005  |   .3056041    1.02865     0.30   0.766    -1.710513    2.321721
        2006  |  -.8714156   .7634449    -1.14   0.254     -2.36774    .6249089
        2007  |  -.6014766   .9867967    -0.61   0.542    -2.535563    1.332609
        2008  |  -.5235044   .6872833    -0.76   0.446    -1.870555    .8235461
        2009  |  -.1860097    .754314    -0.25   0.805    -1.664438    1.292419
        2010  |   -.766784   .5847116    -1.31   0.190    -1.912798    .3792298
        2011  |  -.2335308   .9839982    -0.24   0.812    -2.162132     1.69507
        2012  |  -.7416534   .9408325    -0.79   0.431    -2.585651    1.102344
        2013  |  -.2144575   .5510845    -0.39   0.697    -1.294563    .8656483
        2014  |   .6486316   .8322756     0.78   0.436    -.9825986    2.279862
        2015  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -3.132676    1.43337    -2.19   0.029    -5.942029   -.3233229
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.973421   .1953212                      1.590598    2.356243
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.682396   .2619644                      2.215103    3.248267
          rho |   .6862344   .0420559                      .5986277    .7623118
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rr_
> grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads 
> l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -9845496.3  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6886331.1  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5315318.3  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2910202.5  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2867902.8  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -1369964.7  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -474547.64  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -428658.77  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -424075.61  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -423993.98  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -423993.97  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334077.29  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6398.0551  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6281.9802  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6264.1238  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6200.5786  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6155.1055  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6124.9239  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6124.3568  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6124.3554  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -6124.3554  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -93602.248  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -11923.952  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7979.1208  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6973.7912  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6204.8695  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6012.2933  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5862.1497  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5837.4261  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood =  -5837.072  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5837.0717  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        843
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        181

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.7
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(37)     =      92.06
Log likelihood  = -5837.0717                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .2941438   .1925031     1.53   0.127    -.0831554    .6714429
claim_ideol~y |  -.2280547   .1042927    -2.19   0.029    -.4324646   -.0236447
rebel_ext_m~t |   .4904352    .273814     1.79   0.073    -.0462304    1.027101
  incomp_terr |  -.2363832   .1065578    -2.22   0.027    -.4452328   -.0275337
       rr_grp |   -.063263    .064735    -0.98   0.328    -.1901413    .0636152
 side_a_lnGDP |   4.98e-06   .0122993     0.00   1.000    -.0241013    .0241112
 vdem_rescale |   .0148554   .0106128     1.40   0.162    -.0059453     .035656
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0010584   .0019369    -0.55   0.585    -.0048547    .0027379
     rcd_loot |  -.0337022   .0833345    -0.40   0.686    -.1970349    .1296304
    rcd_crime |   .3877111   .0916159     4.23   0.000     .2081472    .5672749
 active_dyads |  -.0049031   .0401208    -0.12   0.903    -.0835385    .0737322
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000709   .0000121     5.85   0.000     .0000471    .0000947
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2288744   .1757709    -1.30   0.193     -.573379    .1156302
        1992  |   .1308891   .1734345     0.75   0.450    -.2090363    .4708144
        1993  |  -.0518554    .177454    -0.29   0.770    -.3996588     .295948
        1994  |   -.023778   .1766993    -0.13   0.893    -.3701023    .3225462
        1995  |  -.1929028   .1801096    -1.07   0.284     -.545911    .1601055
        1996  |    .042545   .1871345     0.23   0.820     -.324232    .4093219
        1997  |  -.0858741   .1897524    -0.45   0.651     -.457782    .2860339
        1998  |  -.0719401   .1822696    -0.39   0.693     -.429182    .2853018
        1999  |  -.0609715   .1826045    -0.33   0.738    -.4188697    .2969268
        2000  |  -.0562715   .1829415    -0.31   0.758    -.4148302    .3022871
        2001  |  -.2800214   .1827487    -1.53   0.125    -.6382022    .0781594
        2002  |   .0488621   .1763337     0.28   0.782    -.2967455    .3944697
        2003  |  -.2847698   .1912228    -1.49   0.136    -.6595596    .0900199
        2004  |  -.1096576   .1888239    -0.58   0.561    -.4797456    .2604305
        2005  |  -.1453671   .1973543    -0.74   0.461    -.5321744    .2414402
        2006  |  -.2117483   .1903571    -1.11   0.266    -.5848413    .1613447
        2007  |    -.07399   .1911425    -0.39   0.699    -.4486225    .3006425
        2008  |  -.0898938   .1879092    -0.48   0.632    -.4581891    .2784014
        2009  |  -.0691029   .1859883    -0.37   0.710    -.4336333    .2954275
        2010  |  -.2849493   .1936691    -1.47   0.141    -.6645338    .0946351
        2011  |   -.405531   .1988857    -2.04   0.041    -.7953397   -.0157223
        2012  |  -.2839227   .2082436    -1.36   0.173    -.6920727    .1242273
        2013  |  -.4743591   .2135539    -2.22   0.026     -.892917   -.0558012
        2014  |  -.2233153   .2016067    -1.11   0.268    -.6184571    .1718265
        2015  |  -.4246034   .2033875    -2.09   0.037    -.8232355   -.0259712
              |
        _cons |   .4169483   .4200433     0.99   0.321    -.4063216    1.240218
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0914223    .117833                     -.3223707    .1395262
        /ln_s |    4.45537   .2037994                      4.055931     4.85481
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9126323   .1075382                      .7244296    1.149729
            s |   86.08802   17.54469                      57.73888    128.3563
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 574.57               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best rel_aff01 claim_ideology rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rr_
> grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads 
> l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -167434.45  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -13438.192  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -9598.8677  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5943.9944  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5419.9173  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5237.4077  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5114.2904  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4989.8307  (not concave)
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4920.7485  (not concave)
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4771.3419  (not concave)
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4725.6526  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -4677.9789  (backed up)
Iteration 12:  log likelihood = -4478.6892  
Iteration 13:  log likelihood = -4359.2143  
Iteration 14:  log likelihood = -4352.0257  
Iteration 15:  log likelihood = -4351.9988  
Iteration 16:  log likelihood = -4351.9988  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        782
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        120

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(37)     =     108.45
Log likelihood  = -4351.9988                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    rel_aff01 |   .4044251    .245504     1.65   0.099    -.0767538     .885604
claim_ideol~y |  -.3619271   .1327463    -2.73   0.006    -.6221051    -.101749
rebel_ext_m~t |   .2000341   .3644227     0.55   0.583    -.5142213    .9142896
  incomp_terr |  -.2088398   .1266158    -1.65   0.099    -.4570021    .0393225
       rr_grp |  -.1403798   .0772345    -1.82   0.069    -.2917566    .0109969
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0137437   .0156724     0.88   0.381    -.0169735     .044461
 vdem_rescale |   .0357115    .011925     2.99   0.003     .0123389    .0590841
vdem_rescal~q |   -.001695   .0021248    -0.80   0.425    -.0058596    .0024696
     rcd_loot |   -.104575   .0896408    -1.17   0.243    -.2802678    .0711178
    rcd_crime |   .4630296   .1019804     4.54   0.000     .2631516    .6629076
 active_dyads |   .0190386   .0449397     0.42   0.672    -.0690416    .1071188
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000625   .0000138     4.52   0.000     .0000354    .0000896
              |
         year |
        1991  |   -.290398   .1760856    -1.65   0.099    -.6355194    .0547235
        1992  |   .0416875    .182766     0.23   0.820    -.3165274    .3999023
        1993  |  -.1761158   .1911622    -0.92   0.357    -.5507868    .1985552
        1994  |  -.1468214    .190923    -0.77   0.442    -.5210236    .2273809
        1995  |  -.3228107   .1923957    -1.68   0.093    -.6998994     .054278
        1996  |  -.1004489   .1987823    -0.51   0.613    -.4900551    .2891573
        1997  |  -.2829959   .2019513    -1.40   0.161    -.6788132    .1128214
        1998  |   -.274549     .19645    -1.40   0.162    -.6595839    .1104859
        1999  |  -.2907156   .1984899    -1.46   0.143    -.6797487    .0983174
        2000  |  -.2151888   .1945513    -1.11   0.269    -.5965024    .1661248
        2001  |  -.4445034   .1930151    -2.30   0.021    -.8228061   -.0662006
        2002  |  -.1145419   .1856191    -0.62   0.537    -.4783487    .2492648
        2003  |  -.4458859   .2006189    -2.22   0.026    -.8390917   -.0526801
        2004  |  -.2782568   .1958999    -1.42   0.155    -.6622136       .1057
        2005  |  -.3291033   .2048321    -1.61   0.108    -.7305668    .0723603
        2006  |  -.3896827   .2013538    -1.94   0.053    -.7843288    .0049635
        2007  |  -.2620807   .2027841    -1.29   0.196    -.6595302    .1353689
        2008  |  -.2807741   .2032228    -1.38   0.167    -.6790835    .1175353
        2009  |  -.2302285   .1996015    -1.15   0.249    -.6214402    .1609832
        2010  |  -.4776696   .2086665    -2.29   0.022    -.8866484   -.0686908
        2011  |  -.6480575   .2175451    -2.98   0.003    -1.074438    -.221677
        2012  |  -.5787261   .2243709    -2.58   0.010    -1.018485   -.1389672
        2013  |  -.7835317   .2327685    -3.37   0.001     -1.23975   -.3273138
        2014  |  -.4542975   .2188038    -2.08   0.038     -.883145     -.02545
        2015  |  -.6776909   .2247471    -3.02   0.003    -1.118187   -.2371947
              |
        _cons |   .4287014   .5190359     0.83   0.409    -.5885902    1.445993
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
> **********

. 
. * Table A7-E. Determinants of Conflict Intensity – Types of Ideological Claims
>  – Monadic, GRP scores *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> **********

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support 
> incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.ye
> ar if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1207.1961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1074.2132  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1062.3843  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1062.2052  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1062.205  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1062.205  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -1062.205
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1003.9888
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -964.28694
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood =  -935.7038
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -914.38519
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -898.51322
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -887.60728
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -880.10204
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -881.29329

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -880.46448  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.87868  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.68596  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.42461  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.41857  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.41857  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.41823  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.41823  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(74)     =     340.61
Log pseudolikelihood  = -817.41823              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .9042508   .6962469     1.30   0.194     -.460368     2.26887
Theologica..  |   1.886191   .7775394     2.43   0.015      .362242     3.41014
              |
  claim_other |   .3711266   .4080773     0.91   0.363    -.4286902    1.170943
rebel_ext_m~t |    2.86249   .8221288     3.48   0.000     1.251147    4.473833
  incomp_terr |  -.3773891   .4312874    -0.88   0.382    -1.222697    .4679186
       rr_grp |   .5474548   .2302505     2.38   0.017     .0961721    .9987375
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0620836   .0309444    -2.01   0.045    -.1227335   -.0014337
 vdem_rescale |  -.0253924   .0532689    -0.48   0.634    -.1297974    .0790127
vdem_rescal~q |   .0079071   .0079354     1.00   0.319    -.0076459    .0234601
 active_dyads |   .0606476    .134267     0.45   0.651    -.2025109     .323806
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.209515   1.242192    -0.97   0.330    -3.644167    1.225137
        1952  |  -1.537767    1.39682    -1.10   0.271    -4.275483     1.19995
        1953  |   .0289972    1.31921     0.02   0.982    -2.556608    2.614602
        1954  |  -3.176182   1.528191    -2.08   0.038    -6.171381   -.1809827
        1955  |  -1.433559   2.020675    -0.71   0.478    -5.394009     2.52689
        1956  |  -2.275303   2.239486    -1.02   0.310    -6.664615    2.114009
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.625581   1.825947    -0.89   0.373    -5.204372     1.95321
        1959  |  -2.355522   1.996277    -1.18   0.238    -6.268152    1.557109
        1960  |  -3.344862   1.584793    -2.11   0.035       -6.451   -.2387248
        1961  |  -1.085622   1.455306    -0.75   0.456     -3.93797    1.766727
        1962  |  -.5818378   1.469954    -0.40   0.692    -3.462894    2.299218
        1963  |  -.8650266   1.440802    -0.60   0.548    -3.688947    1.958894
        1964  |  -1.637397   1.287374    -1.27   0.203    -4.160605    .8858102
        1965  |  -1.864078    1.33628    -1.39   0.163    -4.483139    .7549829
        1966  |  -1.618617   1.255792    -1.29   0.197    -4.079924    .8426906
        1967  |  -1.683431   1.240977    -1.36   0.175    -4.115701    .7488393
        1968  |  -1.935407   1.219719    -1.59   0.113    -4.326013    .4551985
        1969  |  -1.634243   1.273056    -1.28   0.199    -4.129386    .8609008
        1970  |  -1.726228    1.24033    -1.39   0.164     -4.15723    .7047738
        1971  |  -.8036251   1.064591    -0.75   0.450    -2.890185    1.282935
        1972  |  -2.648147   1.317275    -2.01   0.044    -5.229959   -.0663346
        1973  |  -3.201214   1.393921    -2.30   0.022    -5.933249   -.4691789
        1974  |  -1.594139   1.348161    -1.18   0.237    -4.236486    1.048208
        1975  |  -1.318924   1.280714    -1.03   0.303    -3.829078     1.19123
        1976  |  -1.149415   1.272704    -0.90   0.366     -3.64387    1.345039
        1977  |  -1.376282   1.256931    -1.09   0.274    -3.839822    1.087258
        1978  |  -.0837481   1.281932    -0.07   0.948    -2.596289    2.428793
        1979  |  -1.686817   1.263691    -1.33   0.182    -4.163605    .7899712
        1980  |  -1.448049   1.228628    -1.18   0.239    -3.856116    .9600186
        1981  |  -1.491223   1.254548    -1.19   0.235    -3.950092    .9676456
        1982  |  -.9956058   1.205721    -0.83   0.409    -3.358776    1.367564
        1983  |  -1.182293   1.229983    -0.96   0.336    -3.593016    1.228429
        1984  |   -.932732   1.191868    -0.78   0.434    -3.268751    1.403287
        1985  |  -1.218623   1.208802    -1.01   0.313    -3.587832    1.150586
        1986  |  -1.731111   1.242795    -1.39   0.164    -4.166946     .704723
        1987  |  -1.444713   1.221101    -1.18   0.237    -3.838027    .9486001
        1988  |   -.689702   1.217291    -0.57   0.571    -3.075549    1.696145
        1989  |  -2.337909   1.247055    -1.87   0.061    -4.782092    .1062733
        1990  |  -2.038275   1.262612    -1.61   0.106    -4.512949     .436398
        1991  |  -2.272975   1.260613    -1.80   0.071    -4.743731    .1977811
        1992  |  -1.530711   1.269432    -1.21   0.228    -4.018752    .9573286
        1993  |  -2.242113   1.275285    -1.76   0.079    -4.741626    .2574004
        1994  |  -1.976426   1.346997    -1.47   0.142    -4.616493    .6636399
        1995  |  -2.138868   1.333063    -1.60   0.109    -4.751623    .4738877
        1996  |  -2.283724    1.32609    -1.72   0.085    -4.882813    .3153648
        1997  |  -2.244502   1.271185    -1.77   0.077     -4.73598    .2469751
        1998  |   -1.35321   1.271791    -1.06   0.287    -3.845874    1.139454
        1999  |   -1.41157    1.29482    -1.09   0.276    -3.949371    1.126231
        2000  |  -2.087951   1.297403    -1.61   0.108    -4.630814    .4549112
        2001  |  -2.578295   1.289169    -2.00   0.046     -5.10502   -.0515706
        2002  |  -1.882428   1.390514    -1.35   0.176    -4.607786    .8429304
        2003  |  -2.934379   1.599924    -1.83   0.067    -6.070173    .2014155
        2004  |   -1.82614   1.419086    -1.29   0.198    -4.607497    .9552177
        2005  |  -2.627876   1.499726    -1.75   0.080    -5.567284    .3115325
        2006  |  -3.807653   1.351934    -2.82   0.005    -6.457394   -1.157911
        2007  |  -3.563845   1.487096    -2.40   0.017      -6.4785   -.6491899
        2008  |  -3.470642   1.314968    -2.64   0.008    -6.047933    -.893352
        2009  |  -3.128813   1.334508    -2.34   0.019    -5.744401   -.5132246
        2010  |  -3.732527   1.294314    -2.88   0.004    -6.269336   -1.195719
        2011  |  -3.140739   1.395797    -2.25   0.024     -5.87645   -.4050271
        2012  |  -3.682572   1.501953    -2.45   0.014    -6.626346   -.7387981
        2013  |  -3.157866   1.305037    -2.42   0.016    -5.715691   -.6000415
        2014  |  -2.281343     1.3615    -1.68   0.094    -4.949834    .3871489
        2015  |  -2.928606   1.335223    -2.19   0.028    -5.545594    -.311617
              |
        _cons |  -2.895406    1.40816    -2.06   0.040    -5.655349   -.1354633
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.957169   .1913907                       1.58205    2.332288
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.660688   .2546155                      2.205657    3.209593
          rho |   .6827247   .0414575                      .5965723    .7579441
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support 
> incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post
> _cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2015.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1207.1961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1074.2132  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1062.3843  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1062.2052  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1062.205  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1062.205  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -1062.205
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -1003.9888
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -964.28694
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood =  -935.7038
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -914.38519
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -898.51322
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -887.60728
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -880.10204
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -881.29329

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -880.46448  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -826.87868  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.68596  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.42461  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.41857  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.41857  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.41823  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -817.41823  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(74)     =     340.61
Log pseudolikelihood  = -817.41823              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .9042508   .6962469     1.30   0.194     -.460368     2.26887
Theologica..  |   1.886191   .7775394     2.43   0.015      .362242     3.41014
              |
  claim_other |   .3711266   .4080773     0.91   0.363    -.4286902    1.170943
rebel_ext_m~t |    2.86249   .8221288     3.48   0.000     1.251147    4.473833
  incomp_terr |  -.3773891   .4312874    -0.88   0.382    -1.222697    .4679186
       rr_grp |   .5474548   .2302505     2.38   0.017     .0961721    .9987375
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0620836   .0309444    -2.01   0.045    -.1227335   -.0014337
 vdem_rescale |  -.0253924   .0532689    -0.48   0.634    -.1297974    .0790127
vdem_rescal~q |   .0079071   .0079354     1.00   0.319    -.0076459    .0234601
 active_dyads |   .0606476    .134267     0.45   0.651    -.2025109     .323806
post_cold_war |  -2.928606   1.335223    -2.19   0.028    -5.545594    -.311617
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.209515   1.242192    -0.97   0.330    -3.644167    1.225137
        1952  |  -1.537767    1.39682    -1.10   0.271    -4.275483     1.19995
        1953  |   .0289972    1.31921     0.02   0.982    -2.556608    2.614602
        1954  |  -3.176182   1.528191    -2.08   0.038    -6.171381   -.1809827
        1955  |  -1.433559   2.020675    -0.71   0.478    -5.394009     2.52689
        1956  |  -2.275303   2.239486    -1.02   0.310    -6.664615    2.114009
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.625581   1.825947    -0.89   0.373    -5.204372     1.95321
        1959  |  -2.355522   1.996277    -1.18   0.238    -6.268152    1.557109
        1960  |  -3.344862   1.584793    -2.11   0.035       -6.451   -.2387248
        1961  |  -1.085622   1.455306    -0.75   0.456     -3.93797    1.766727
        1962  |  -.5818378   1.469954    -0.40   0.692    -3.462894    2.299218
        1963  |  -.8650266   1.440802    -0.60   0.548    -3.688947    1.958894
        1964  |  -1.637397   1.287374    -1.27   0.203    -4.160605    .8858102
        1965  |  -1.864078    1.33628    -1.39   0.163    -4.483139    .7549829
        1966  |  -1.618617   1.255792    -1.29   0.197    -4.079924    .8426906
        1967  |  -1.683431   1.240977    -1.36   0.175    -4.115701    .7488393
        1968  |  -1.935407   1.219719    -1.59   0.113    -4.326013    .4551985
        1969  |  -1.634243   1.273056    -1.28   0.199    -4.129386    .8609008
        1970  |  -1.726228    1.24033    -1.39   0.164     -4.15723    .7047738
        1971  |  -.8036251   1.064591    -0.75   0.450    -2.890185    1.282935
        1972  |  -2.648147   1.317275    -2.01   0.044    -5.229959   -.0663346
        1973  |  -3.201214   1.393921    -2.30   0.022    -5.933249   -.4691789
        1974  |  -1.594139   1.348161    -1.18   0.237    -4.236486    1.048208
        1975  |  -1.318924   1.280714    -1.03   0.303    -3.829078     1.19123
        1976  |  -1.149415   1.272704    -0.90   0.366     -3.64387    1.345039
        1977  |  -1.376282   1.256931    -1.09   0.274    -3.839822    1.087258
        1978  |  -.0837481   1.281932    -0.07   0.948    -2.596289    2.428793
        1979  |  -1.686817   1.263691    -1.33   0.182    -4.163605    .7899712
        1980  |  -1.448049   1.228628    -1.18   0.239    -3.856116    .9600186
        1981  |  -1.491223   1.254548    -1.19   0.235    -3.950092    .9676456
        1982  |  -.9956058   1.205721    -0.83   0.409    -3.358776    1.367564
        1983  |  -1.182293   1.229983    -0.96   0.336    -3.593016    1.228429
        1984  |   -.932732   1.191868    -0.78   0.434    -3.268751    1.403287
        1985  |  -1.218623   1.208802    -1.01   0.313    -3.587832    1.150586
        1986  |  -1.731111   1.242795    -1.39   0.164    -4.166946     .704723
        1987  |  -1.444713   1.221101    -1.18   0.237    -3.838027    .9486001
        1988  |   -.689702   1.217291    -0.57   0.571    -3.075549    1.696145
        1989  |  -2.337909   1.247055    -1.87   0.061    -4.782092    .1062733
        1990  |  -2.038275   1.262612    -1.61   0.106    -4.512949     .436398
        1991  |   .6556308   .8292699     0.79   0.429    -.9697084     2.28097
        1992  |   1.397894   .8583538     1.63   0.103    -.2844484    3.080237
        1993  |   .6864927    .915786     0.75   0.453    -1.108415      2.4814
        1994  |   .9521792   1.010911     0.94   0.346     -1.02917    2.933528
        1995  |   .7897378   .9558147     0.83   0.409    -1.083625      2.6631
        1996  |   .6448813   .9672644     0.67   0.505    -1.250922    2.540685
        1997  |   .6841032   .8776985     0.78   0.436    -1.036154    2.404361
        1998  |   1.575395   .8510406     1.85   0.064    -.0926137    3.243404
        1999  |   1.517036   .8570403     1.77   0.077    -.1627323    3.196804
        2000  |   .8406543   .8783742     0.96   0.339    -.8809276    2.562236
        2001  |   .3503105   .8639996     0.41   0.685    -1.343098    2.043719
        2002  |   1.046178     .95536     1.10   0.273    -.8262932    2.918649
        2003  |   -.005773    1.30981    -0.00   0.996    -2.572954    2.561408
        2004  |   1.102466   1.068096     1.03   0.302    -.9909641    3.195896
        2005  |   .3007298   1.043458     0.29   0.773    -1.744411     2.34587
        2006  |   -.879047   .7770571    -1.13   0.258    -2.402051     .643957
        2007  |  -.6352396   .9944357    -0.64   0.523    -2.584298    1.313819
        2008  |  -.5420367   .6986834    -0.78   0.438    -1.911431    .8273575
        2009  |  -.2002071   .7629289    -0.26   0.793     -1.69552    1.295106
        2010  |  -.8039217   .5900055    -1.36   0.173    -1.960311    .3524678
        2011  |  -.2121329   .9939531    -0.21   0.831    -2.160245    1.735979
        2012  |  -.7539662   .9514557    -0.79   0.428    -2.618785    1.110853
        2013  |  -.2292606   .5584646    -0.41   0.681    -1.323831    .8653098
        2014  |   .6472629   .8408695     0.77   0.441    -1.000811    2.295337
        2015  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -2.895406    1.40816    -2.06   0.040    -5.655349   -.1354633
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.957169   .1913907                       1.58205    2.332288
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.660688   .2546155                      2.205657    3.209593
          rho |   .6827247   .0414575                      .5965723    .7579441
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.rel_claim_types c.claim_other) reb
> el_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_s
> q active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2015.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1207.1961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1069.9102  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1056.3896  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1056.121  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1056.1201  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1056.1201  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1056.1201
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -999.80041
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -961.19085
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -933.27959
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -912.32731
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -896.61221
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood =  -885.3599
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -878.36205
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -879.19595

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -878.92822  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -825.14325  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.67505  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.40266  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.39529  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.39519  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =   -815.394  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =   -815.394  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(77)     =     430.05
Log pseudolikelihood  =   -815.394              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -2.635979   1.640501    -1.61   0.108    -5.851302    .5793446
              |
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .8358994   .6829473     1.22   0.221    -.5026528    2.174452
Theologica..  |   2.862413   .9866251     2.90   0.004     .9286634    4.796163
              |
  claim_other |   .6179376   .5022852     1.23   0.219    -.3665233    1.602399
              |
post_cold_war#|
rel_claim_t~s |
           1 #|
Religious ..  |   .0716463   .9416601     0.08   0.939    -1.773974    1.917266
           1 #|
Theologica..  |  -1.405568   1.184243    -1.19   0.235    -3.726641    .9155057
              |
post_cold_war#|
c.claim_other |
           1  |  -.5895474   .7399114    -0.80   0.426    -2.039747    .8606524
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.850644   .8105206     3.52   0.000     1.262053    4.439235
  incomp_terr |  -.3838055   .4304082    -0.89   0.373     -1.22739    .4597791
       rr_grp |   .5543773   .2266738     2.45   0.014     .1101048    .9986498
 side_a_lnGDP |   -.060196   .0309655    -1.94   0.052    -.1208872    .0004952
 vdem_rescale |  -.0237415   .0522324    -0.45   0.649     -.126115    .0786321
vdem_rescal~q |    .007796   .0078651     0.99   0.322    -.0076192    .0232113
 active_dyads |  -.0101691   .1210869    -0.08   0.933     -.247495    .2271569
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.206063   1.227435    -0.98   0.326    -3.611791    1.199666
        1952  |  -1.524981   1.385627    -1.10   0.271     -4.24076    1.190798
        1953  |  -.0586662   1.273605    -0.05   0.963    -2.554886    2.437553
        1954  |  -3.272586   1.524059    -2.15   0.032    -6.259686   -.2854856
        1955  |  -1.503611   2.072688    -0.73   0.468    -5.566004    2.558782
        1956  |  -2.367651   2.260927    -1.05   0.295    -6.798987    2.063685
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.728232   1.833055    -0.94   0.346    -5.320954     1.86449
        1959  |  -2.444374   2.011812    -1.22   0.224    -6.387454    1.498705
        1960  |  -3.428694   1.575985    -2.18   0.030    -6.517567   -.3398206
        1961  |   -1.19843   1.449326    -0.83   0.408    -4.039057    1.642197
        1962  |   -.695779   1.464221    -0.48   0.635    -3.565599    2.174041
        1963  |  -.9617096   1.427305    -0.67   0.500    -3.759176    1.835757
        1964  |  -1.747713   1.270731    -1.38   0.169    -4.238299    .7428735
        1965  |  -1.981718   1.314195    -1.51   0.132    -4.557493    .5940582
        1966  |   -1.72164   1.231896    -1.40   0.162    -4.136111    .6928312
        1967  |  -1.791191   1.216694    -1.47   0.141    -4.175868    .5934863
        1968  |  -2.045981   1.195236    -1.71   0.087      -4.3886    .2966381
        1969  |  -1.727645   1.244415    -1.39   0.165    -4.166653    .7113632
        1970  |  -1.813772   1.214569    -1.49   0.135    -4.194283    .5667391
        1971  |  -.8947034   1.040933    -0.86   0.390    -2.934894    1.145487
        1972  |  -2.762221   1.285095    -2.15   0.032     -5.28096   -.2434813
        1973  |  -3.329737   1.363056    -2.44   0.015    -6.001277   -.6581969
        1974  |  -1.706868   1.314974    -1.30   0.194    -4.284169     .870433
        1975  |  -1.431483   1.247775    -1.15   0.251    -3.877077     1.01411
        1976  |  -1.261164   1.247137    -1.01   0.312    -3.705508     1.18318
        1977  |  -1.475871    1.22938    -1.20   0.230    -3.885411    .9336697
        1978  |  -.1877964   1.256048    -0.15   0.881    -2.649605    2.274013
        1979  |  -1.838119   1.243106    -1.48   0.139    -4.274562     .598325
        1980  |  -1.605076   1.210116    -1.33   0.185     -3.97686    .7667083
        1981  |  -1.640204   1.238057    -1.32   0.185     -4.06675    .7863424
        1982  |  -1.138218   1.181609    -0.96   0.335    -3.454129    1.177693
        1983  |  -1.320233   1.211943    -1.09   0.276    -3.695597    1.055131
        1984  |  -1.057704   1.172221    -0.90   0.367    -3.355215    1.239807
        1985  |  -1.360948   1.180221    -1.15   0.249    -3.674139    .9522436
        1986  |  -1.871445   1.228091    -1.52   0.128     -4.27846    .5355698
        1987  |  -1.587412   1.202934    -1.32   0.187    -3.945119    .7702959
        1988  |  -.8479822   1.195776    -0.71   0.478    -3.191661    1.495696
        1989  |  -2.551817   1.242765    -2.05   0.040    -4.987591   -.1160424
        1990  |  -2.192789   1.259441    -1.74   0.082    -4.661249    .2756706
        1991  |   .7165974   .8073822     0.89   0.375    -.8658427    2.299038
        1992  |   1.400386   .8332281     1.68   0.093    -.2327115    3.033483
        1993  |   .6915147   .9029512     0.77   0.444    -1.078237    2.461267
        1994  |   .9474114   .9892461     0.96   0.338    -.9914753    2.886298
        1995  |   .8084095   .9271021     0.87   0.383    -1.008677    2.625496
        1996  |   .6914196    .932388     0.74   0.458    -1.136027    2.518867
        1997  |   .7031148   .8608141     0.82   0.414    -.9840498    2.390279
        1998  |   1.592279   .8342921     1.91   0.056    -.0429036    3.227461
        1999  |   1.549353   .8264938     1.87   0.061    -.0705449    3.169251
        2000  |   .8628487   .8746683     0.99   0.324    -.8514697    2.577167
        2001  |   .3699916   .8538414     0.43   0.665    -1.303507     2.04349
        2002  |   1.077782   .9438132     1.14   0.253    -.7720576    2.927622
        2003  |   .0297749   1.296136     0.02   0.982    -2.510605    2.570155
        2004  |     1.1431   1.055063     1.08   0.279    -.9247859    3.210986
        2005  |   .3228218   1.023249     0.32   0.752     -1.68271    2.328353
        2006  |  -.8426623   .7637378    -1.10   0.270    -2.339561    .6542363
        2007  |   -.595309   .9879733    -0.60   0.547    -2.531701    1.341083
        2008  |    -.52098   .6857595    -0.76   0.447    -1.865044    .8230839
        2009  |  -.1908077   .7556227    -0.25   0.801    -1.671801    1.290186
        2010  |  -.7726591   .5817324    -1.33   0.184    -1.912834    .3675154
        2011  |  -.1698969   .9709387    -0.17   0.861    -2.072902    1.733108
        2012  |  -.7743499   .9340815    -0.83   0.407    -2.605116    1.056416
        2013  |  -.2202534   .5579398    -0.39   0.693    -1.313795    .8732886
        2014  |   .6511485    .822788     0.79   0.429    -.9614863    2.263783
        2015  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -2.874937    1.42158    -2.02   0.043    -5.661182   -.0886919
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.967919   .1948485                      1.586023    2.349815
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.675027   .2606125                      2.210042    3.237843
          rho |   .6850486   .0420399                      .5975279     .761145
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_ter
> r rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_d
> yads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =   -9690163  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -8855646.6  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -8050997.3  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =   -6532005  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2751651.8  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -600151.86  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -456193.93  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -417105.68  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -416470.96  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -416469.17  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -416469.17  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334077.29  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6398.0551  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6281.9802  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6264.1238  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -6200.481  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6183.5172  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6114.1606  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6111.5075  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6111.4956  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -6111.4956  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -91599.855  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -11003.161  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -8011.8743  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6759.2757  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6189.0079  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -6018.965  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5878.8593  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5837.0676  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5833.8745  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5833.8577  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5833.8577  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        843
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        181

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.7
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(38)     =      98.51
Log likelihood  = -5833.8577                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .2411299   .1935069     1.25   0.213    -.1381367    .6203964
Theologica..  |   .1613364   .2107506     0.77   0.444    -.2517272       .5744
              |
  claim_other |  -.3550932   .1134461    -3.13   0.002    -.5774434    -.132743
rebel_ext_m~t |   .5149659   .2723731     1.89   0.059    -.0188754    1.048807
  incomp_terr |  -.2768536   .1068877    -2.59   0.010    -.4863496   -.0673576
       rr_grp |  -.0717364   .0643395    -1.11   0.265    -.1978395    .0543668
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0011453   .0123233     0.09   0.926    -.0230079    .0252986
 vdem_rescale |   .0142353   .0105873     1.34   0.179    -.0065155    .0349861
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0008763   .0019025    -0.46   0.645    -.0046051    .0028525
     rcd_loot |  -.0272777   .0826464    -0.33   0.741    -.1892616    .1347062
    rcd_crime |   .4136929   .0917873     4.51   0.000     .2337931    .5935928
 active_dyads |  -.0262912   .0410977    -0.64   0.522    -.1068412    .0542589
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000742   .0000122     6.11   0.000     .0000504     .000098
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2365359   .1772746    -1.33   0.182    -.5839878     .110916
        1992  |   .1185841   .1748677     0.68   0.498    -.2241504    .4613185
        1993  |  -.0452898   .1782651    -0.25   0.799     -.394683    .3041033
        1994  |  -.0462828   .1778026    -0.26   0.795    -.3947695    .3022039
        1995  |  -.1983602   .1805535    -1.10   0.272    -.5522385    .1555181
        1996  |   .0111473   .1887253     0.06   0.953    -.3587474     .381042
        1997  |  -.0890675   .1906287    -0.47   0.640    -.4626929    .2845579
        1998  |  -.0815618   .1830329    -0.45   0.656    -.4402998    .2771762
        1999  |  -.0641459   .1832627    -0.35   0.726    -.4233342    .2950423
        2000  |  -.0674965   .1840315    -0.37   0.714    -.4281916    .2931986
        2001  |  -.3048544   .1842435    -1.65   0.098    -.6659651    .0562562
        2002  |   .0382774   .1772859     0.22   0.829    -.3091967    .3857514
        2003  |  -.2793382   .1911482    -1.46   0.144    -.6539818    .0953054
        2004  |  -.1388665   .1899991    -0.73   0.465    -.5112579    .2335249
        2005  |  -.1920811   .1987596    -0.97   0.334    -.5816428    .1974806
        2006  |  -.2251023   .1908984    -1.18   0.238    -.5992563    .1490516
        2007  |   -.097798   .1917803    -0.51   0.610    -.4736805    .2780844
        2008  |  -.1118912   .1881072    -0.59   0.552    -.4805745    .2567922
        2009  |   -.086299   .1859948    -0.46   0.643    -.4508422    .2782442
        2010  |  -.3315472   .1948308    -1.70   0.089    -.7134084    .0503141
        2011  |  -.4496047   .1995224    -2.25   0.024    -.8406614   -.0585479
        2012  |  -.3248806   .2082771    -1.56   0.119    -.7330963     .083335
        2013  |  -.5131573   .2130805    -2.41   0.016    -.9307875   -.0955272
        2014  |  -.2570941   .2006175    -1.28   0.200    -.6502972     .136109
        2015  |  -.4544079   .2022595    -2.25   0.025    -.8508293   -.0579865
              |
        _cons |   .4970604   .4222017     1.18   0.239    -.3304397     1.32456
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0602198   .1196189                     -.2946687     .174229
        /ln_s |   4.525251   .2052605                      4.122948    4.927555
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9415575   .1126281                      .7447783    1.190328
            s |   92.31913   18.94947                      61.74099    138.0415
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 555.28               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.rel_claim_types claim_other rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_ter
> r rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_d
> yads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -116386.9  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -8220.8262  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7627.1007  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6277.9527  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5879.1221  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5373.0041  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4862.7501  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4774.8943  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood =  -4679.827  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4551.8274  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4356.8911  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood =  -4350.976  
Iteration 12:  log likelihood = -4350.9252  
Iteration 13:  log likelihood = -4350.9252  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        782
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        120

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(38)     =     110.70
Log likelihood  = -4350.9252                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rel_claim_t~s |
Religious ..  |   .3733305   .2460791     1.52   0.129    -.1089757    .8556368
Theologica..  |   .1459953   .2596565     0.56   0.574    -.3629221    .6549128
              |
  claim_other |  -.4512016     .14809    -3.05   0.002    -.7414526   -.1609506
rebel_ext_m~t |   .1971475   .3676642     0.54   0.592     -.523461    .9177561
  incomp_terr |  -.2285843   .1270441    -1.80   0.072    -.4775861    .0204175
       rr_grp |  -.1480951   .0772472    -1.92   0.055     -.299497    .0033067
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0136376   .0157232     0.87   0.386    -.0171793    .0444545
 vdem_rescale |    .035809   .0119004     3.01   0.003     .0124846    .0591335
vdem_rescal~q |   -.001606   .0020994    -0.76   0.444    -.0057209    .0025088
     rcd_loot |  -.0915523   .0894327    -1.02   0.306    -.2668372    .0837325
    rcd_crime |   .4792505   .1023855     4.68   0.000     .2785786    .6799224
 active_dyads |   .0006733   .0462073     0.01   0.988    -.0898913    .0912378
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000652    .000014     4.67   0.000     .0000378    .0000925
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2945745   .1779691    -1.66   0.098    -.6433875    .0542384
        1992  |   .0354645   .1851443     0.19   0.848    -.3274117    .3983406
        1993  |  -.1684996   .1934914    -0.87   0.384    -.5477357    .2107365
        1994  |  -.1566532   .1927645    -0.81   0.416    -.5344646    .2211582
        1995  |  -.3223471   .1939254    -1.66   0.096    -.7024338    .0577396
        1996  |  -.1149498   .2010104    -0.57   0.567     -.508923    .2790234
        1997  |  -.2791354   .2036674    -1.37   0.171    -.6783162    .1200453
        1998  |  -.2804088   .1983567    -1.41   0.157    -.6691807    .1083631
        1999  |  -.2937042   .2005149    -1.46   0.143    -.6867061    .0992977
        2000  |  -.2112922   .1965732    -1.07   0.282    -.5965686    .1739842
        2001  |  -.4525391   .1951897    -2.32   0.020    -.8351039   -.0699743
        2002  |  -.1138416   .1875203    -0.61   0.544    -.4813746    .2536915
        2003  |  -.4288662   .2017564    -2.13   0.034    -.8243015    -.033431
        2004  |  -.2925513   .1978555    -1.48   0.139    -.6803409    .0952383
        2005  |  -.3611657   .2071414    -1.74   0.081    -.7671553     .044824
        2006  |   -.394581   .2029518    -1.94   0.052    -.7923591    .0031971
        2007  |  -.2749442   .2044316    -1.34   0.179    -.6756228    .1257344
        2008  |  -.2904875   .2045071    -1.42   0.155     -.691314     .110339
        2009  |   -.238823     .20086    -1.19   0.234    -.6325014    .1548554
        2010  |  -.5039358   .2107011    -2.39   0.017    -.9169024   -.0909692
        2011  |  -.6641424   .2186141    -3.04   0.002    -1.092618   -.2356666
        2012  |  -.6011831    .225393    -2.67   0.008    -1.042945   -.1594209
        2013  |  -.8025652   .2335664    -3.44   0.001    -1.260347   -.3447834
        2014  |  -.4666491   .2188689    -2.13   0.033    -.8956243    -.037674
        2015  |  -.6898113   .2248612    -3.07   0.002    -1.130531   -.2490914
              |
        _cons |   .4896933   .5225235     0.94   0.349     -.534434    1.513821
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ******************

. 
. * Table A8-E. Determinants of Conflict Intensity - Specific Types of Ideologic
> al Claim – Monadic, GRP scores *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ******************

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist cl
> aim_libdem rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale 
> vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used


Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1207.1961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1064.1813  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1050.9236  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1050.7026  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1050.7023  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1050.7023  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1050.7023
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -994.22089
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -955.93689
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -928.51874
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -908.09464
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood =  -892.4846
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -881.94834
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -876.43342
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -879.82265

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -876.39384  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -825.3855  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -816.08614  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.86308  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.85428  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.85428  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.85131  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.85131  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(77)     =     346.45
Log pseudolikelihood  = -815.85131              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.165225   .5687094     2.05   0.040      .050575    2.279875
Christian-~l  |   1.308919   1.013104     1.29   0.196    -.6767275    3.294566
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .6722002   .5593796     1.20   0.229    -.4241636    1.768564
Muslim-The~l  |   1.692927   .6489311     2.61   0.009     .4210456    2.964809
              |
claim_commu~t |   .4661443   .4840122     0.96   0.336    -.4825023    1.414791
 claim_libdem |  -.2821403   .5690607    -0.50   0.620    -1.397479    .8331983
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.784727   .8187619     3.40   0.001     1.179983    4.389471
  incomp_terr |  -.2534677   .4318663    -0.59   0.557     -1.09991    .5929746
       rr_grp |   .6108116   .2332571     2.62   0.009     .1536361    1.067987
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0673349   .0309216    -2.18   0.029    -.1279402   -.0067296
 vdem_rescale |  -.0287686   .0536825    -0.54   0.592    -.1339844    .0764471
vdem_rescal~q |   .0088764   .0078202     1.14   0.256    -.0064509    .0242037
 active_dyads |   .0557793   .1343362     0.42   0.678    -.2075148    .3190733
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.175711     1.2291    -0.96   0.339    -3.584703    1.233281
        1952  |  -1.519892   1.391769    -1.09   0.275    -4.247709    1.207925
        1953  |   .0311463   1.318172     0.02   0.981    -2.552423    2.614716
        1954  |  -3.286368   1.520651    -2.16   0.031    -6.266788   -.3059472
        1955  |  -1.500548   2.062208    -0.73   0.467    -5.542401    2.541305
        1956  |  -2.247295   2.247501    -1.00   0.317    -6.652315    2.157726
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.656346   1.807726    -0.92   0.360    -5.199423    1.886732
        1959  |  -2.287482   1.984291    -1.15   0.249    -6.176621    1.601657
        1960  |  -3.304489   1.584705    -2.09   0.037    -6.410454   -.1985241
        1961  |  -1.031769   1.446828    -0.71   0.476      -3.8675    1.803962
        1962  |  -.5654754   1.460148    -0.39   0.699    -3.427313    2.296362
        1963  |  -.8604193   1.430391    -0.60   0.547    -3.663935    1.943096
        1964  |  -1.689934   1.279132    -1.32   0.186    -4.196986    .8171187
        1965  |  -1.950125   1.321386    -1.48   0.140    -4.539993    .6397437
        1966  |  -1.635549   1.238174    -1.32   0.187    -4.062326    .7912282
        1967  |  -1.730428   1.228961    -1.41   0.159    -4.139149    .6782918
        1968  |  -1.963144   1.204168    -1.63   0.103     -4.32327    .3969832
        1969  |  -1.644503   1.254772    -1.31   0.190    -4.103811    .8148042
        1970  |  -1.719807   1.222691    -1.41   0.160    -4.116237    .6766227
        1971  |  -.7955537   1.059503    -0.75   0.453    -2.872141    1.281034
        1972  |  -2.691951   1.301178    -2.07   0.039    -5.242213   -.1416884
        1973  |  -3.210919   1.379467    -2.33   0.020    -5.914623    -.507214
        1974  |  -1.623985   1.333426    -1.22   0.223    -4.237452    .9894814
        1975  |  -1.345603   1.262637    -1.07   0.287    -3.820326     1.12912
        1976  |  -1.204511   1.264039    -0.95   0.341    -3.681982     1.27296
        1977  |  -1.428554   1.251726    -1.14   0.254    -3.881891    1.024783
        1978  |  -.1265342   1.274636    -0.10   0.921    -2.624775    2.371707
        1979  |  -1.735303    1.26162    -1.38   0.169    -4.208034    .7374278
        1980  |  -1.474014   1.225272    -1.20   0.229    -3.875504    .9274754
        1981  |  -1.520974    1.25064    -1.22   0.224    -3.972183    .9302343
        1982  |  -1.021222   1.196977    -0.85   0.394    -3.367253    1.324809
        1983  |  -1.193667   1.223817    -0.98   0.329    -3.592304    1.204969
        1984  |  -.9250828   1.186069    -0.78   0.435    -3.249735    1.399569
        1985  |  -1.220677   1.203573    -1.01   0.310    -3.579637    1.138283
        1986  |  -1.728601   1.231495    -1.40   0.160    -4.142287    .6850861
        1987  |  -1.415355   1.210317    -1.17   0.242    -3.787532    .9568229
        1988  |  -.6487721   1.205864    -0.54   0.591    -3.012221    1.714677
        1989  |  -2.324764   1.241729    -1.87   0.061    -4.758507    .1089795
        1990  |  -1.995406   1.260696    -1.58   0.113    -4.466325    .4755134
        1991  |  -2.261757   1.253848    -1.80   0.071    -4.719254    .1957397
        1992  |  -1.512025   1.261019    -1.20   0.231    -3.983577    .9595278
        1993  |  -2.229962    1.26053    -1.77   0.077    -4.700555     .240632
        1994  |  -1.947344   1.331717    -1.46   0.144    -4.557462    .6627731
        1995  |  -2.106162   1.315966    -1.60   0.109    -4.685408    .4730839
        1996  |   -2.22522   1.308351    -1.70   0.089     -4.78954    .3391006
        1997  |  -2.170607   1.248174    -1.74   0.082    -4.616983     .275769
        1998  |  -1.289277   1.250291    -1.03   0.302    -3.739802    1.161247
        1999  |  -1.341463   1.271347    -1.06   0.291    -3.833257    1.150331
        2000  |  -2.037005   1.271765    -1.60   0.109    -4.529618    .4556076
        2001  |  -2.515037   1.285233    -1.96   0.050    -5.034047    .0039731
        2002  |  -1.808615   1.369197    -1.32   0.187    -4.492193    .8749621
        2003  |  -2.854328   1.572161    -1.82   0.069    -5.935708    .2270508
        2004  |  -1.784945   1.395611    -1.28   0.201    -4.520292    .9504024
        2005  |   -2.56179   1.482082    -1.73   0.084    -5.466617    .3430378
        2006  |  -3.705558   1.354981    -2.73   0.006    -6.361273   -1.049843
        2007  |  -3.470333   1.487635    -2.33   0.020    -6.386045   -.5546214
        2008  |  -3.382839   1.312514    -2.58   0.010    -5.955319   -.8103587
        2009  |  -3.050504   1.332597    -2.29   0.022    -5.662346   -.4386621
        2010  |   -3.64559   1.282068    -2.84   0.004    -6.158396   -1.132783
        2011  |  -3.031445   1.388848    -2.18   0.029    -5.753536   -.3093542
        2012  |  -3.613828   1.490654    -2.42   0.015    -6.535457   -.6921993
        2013  |  -3.077382   1.292312    -2.38   0.017    -5.610266   -.5444973
        2014  |  -2.214368   1.354856    -1.63   0.102    -4.869838    .4411016
        2015  |  -2.854811   1.320628    -2.16   0.031    -5.443194   -.2664275
              |
        _cons |  -2.777615   1.257244    -2.21   0.027    -5.241769   -.3134616
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.929391   .1930708                      1.550979    2.307802
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.623988   .2533077                      2.171655    3.170538
          rho |   .6766772    .042241                      .5890722    .7534234
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist cl
> aim_libdem rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale 
> vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads post_cold_war i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, vc
> e(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2015.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1207.1961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1064.1813  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1050.9236  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1050.7026  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -1050.7023  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -1050.7023  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -1050.7023
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -994.22089
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood = -955.93689
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -928.51874
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood = -908.09464
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood =  -892.4846
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -881.94834
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -876.43342
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -879.82265

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -876.39384  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -825.3855  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -816.08614  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.86308  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.85428  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.85428  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.85131  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.85131  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(77)     =     346.45
Log pseudolikelihood  = -815.85131              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.165225   .5687094     2.05   0.040      .050575    2.279875
Christian-~l  |   1.308919   1.013104     1.29   0.196    -.6767275    3.294566
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .6722002   .5593796     1.20   0.229    -.4241636    1.768564
Muslim-The~l  |   1.692927   .6489311     2.61   0.009     .4210456    2.964809
              |
claim_commu~t |   .4661443   .4840122     0.96   0.336    -.4825023    1.414791
 claim_libdem |  -.2821403   .5690607    -0.50   0.620    -1.397479    .8331983
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.784727   .8187619     3.40   0.001     1.179983    4.389471
  incomp_terr |  -.2534677   .4318663    -0.59   0.557     -1.09991    .5929746
       rr_grp |   .6108116   .2332571     2.62   0.009     .1536361    1.067987
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0673349   .0309216    -2.18   0.029    -.1279402   -.0067296
 vdem_rescale |  -.0287686   .0536825    -0.54   0.592    -.1339844    .0764471
vdem_rescal~q |   .0088764   .0078202     1.14   0.256    -.0064509    .0242037
 active_dyads |   .0557793   .1343362     0.42   0.678    -.2075148    .3190733
post_cold_war |  -2.854811   1.320628    -2.16   0.031    -5.443194   -.2664275
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.175711     1.2291    -0.96   0.339    -3.584703    1.233281
        1952  |  -1.519892   1.391769    -1.09   0.275    -4.247709    1.207925
        1953  |   .0311463   1.318172     0.02   0.981    -2.552423    2.614716
        1954  |  -3.286368   1.520651    -2.16   0.031    -6.266788   -.3059472
        1955  |  -1.500548   2.062208    -0.73   0.467    -5.542401    2.541305
        1956  |  -2.247295   2.247501    -1.00   0.317    -6.652315    2.157726
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.656346   1.807726    -0.92   0.360    -5.199423    1.886732
        1959  |  -2.287482   1.984291    -1.15   0.249    -6.176621    1.601657
        1960  |  -3.304489   1.584705    -2.09   0.037    -6.410454   -.1985241
        1961  |  -1.031769   1.446828    -0.71   0.476      -3.8675    1.803962
        1962  |  -.5654754   1.460148    -0.39   0.699    -3.427313    2.296362
        1963  |  -.8604193   1.430391    -0.60   0.547    -3.663935    1.943096
        1964  |  -1.689934   1.279132    -1.32   0.186    -4.196986    .8171187
        1965  |  -1.950125   1.321386    -1.48   0.140    -4.539993    .6397437
        1966  |  -1.635549   1.238174    -1.32   0.187    -4.062326    .7912282
        1967  |  -1.730428   1.228961    -1.41   0.159    -4.139149    .6782918
        1968  |  -1.963144   1.204168    -1.63   0.103     -4.32327    .3969832
        1969  |  -1.644503   1.254772    -1.31   0.190    -4.103811    .8148042
        1970  |  -1.719807   1.222691    -1.41   0.160    -4.116237    .6766227
        1971  |  -.7955537   1.059503    -0.75   0.453    -2.872141    1.281034
        1972  |  -2.691951   1.301178    -2.07   0.039    -5.242213   -.1416884
        1973  |  -3.210919   1.379467    -2.33   0.020    -5.914623    -.507214
        1974  |  -1.623985   1.333426    -1.22   0.223    -4.237452    .9894814
        1975  |  -1.345603   1.262637    -1.07   0.287    -3.820326     1.12912
        1976  |  -1.204511   1.264039    -0.95   0.341    -3.681982     1.27296
        1977  |  -1.428554   1.251726    -1.14   0.254    -3.881891    1.024783
        1978  |  -.1265342   1.274636    -0.10   0.921    -2.624775    2.371707
        1979  |  -1.735303    1.26162    -1.38   0.169    -4.208034    .7374278
        1980  |  -1.474014   1.225272    -1.20   0.229    -3.875504    .9274754
        1981  |  -1.520974    1.25064    -1.22   0.224    -3.972183    .9302343
        1982  |  -1.021222   1.196977    -0.85   0.394    -3.367253    1.324809
        1983  |  -1.193667   1.223817    -0.98   0.329    -3.592304    1.204969
        1984  |  -.9250828   1.186069    -0.78   0.435    -3.249735    1.399569
        1985  |  -1.220677   1.203573    -1.01   0.310    -3.579637    1.138283
        1986  |  -1.728601   1.231495    -1.40   0.160    -4.142287    .6850861
        1987  |  -1.415355   1.210317    -1.17   0.242    -3.787532    .9568229
        1988  |  -.6487721   1.205864    -0.54   0.591    -3.012221    1.714677
        1989  |  -2.324764   1.241729    -1.87   0.061    -4.758507    .1089795
        1990  |  -1.995406   1.260696    -1.58   0.113    -4.466325    .4755134
        1991  |   .5930535    .829228     0.72   0.474    -1.032204    2.218311
        1992  |   1.342786   .8658808     1.55   0.121    -.3543093    3.039881
        1993  |    .624849   .9180742     0.68   0.496    -1.174543    2.424241
        1994  |   .9074664    1.00814     0.90   0.368    -1.068452    2.883385
        1995  |   .7486485   .9599219     0.78   0.435    -1.132764    2.630061
        1996  |   .6295908   .9751512     0.65   0.519     -1.28167    2.540852
        1997  |   .6842038   .8778234     0.78   0.436    -1.036298    2.404706
        1998  |   1.565533    .853415     1.83   0.067    -.1071293    3.238196
        1999  |   1.513348   .8570341     1.77   0.077    -.1664084    3.193104
        2000  |   .8178053   .8814904     0.93   0.354    -.9098841    2.545495
        2001  |   .3397735    .863872     0.39   0.694    -1.353385    2.032931
        2002  |   1.046195   .9523815     1.10   0.272    -.8204382    2.912829
        2003  |   .0004822   1.309112     0.00   1.000     -2.56533    2.566294
        2004  |   1.069866    1.06615     1.00   0.316     -1.01975    3.159482
        2005  |   .2930209   1.036954     0.28   0.777    -1.739372    2.325413
        2006  |  -.8507472   .7742625    -1.10   0.272    -2.368274    .6667795
        2007  |  -.6155224   .9897615    -0.62   0.534    -2.555419    1.324375
        2008  |  -.5280282   .6961804    -0.76   0.448    -1.892517    .8364603
        2009  |  -.1956933   .7591346    -0.26   0.797     -1.68357    1.292183
        2010  |  -.7907789   .5883399    -1.34   0.179    -1.943904     .362346
        2011  |  -.1766347   .9958873    -0.18   0.859    -2.128538    1.775268
        2012  |  -.7590176   .9510528    -0.80   0.425    -2.623047    1.105012
        2013  |  -.2225712   .5544712    -0.40   0.688    -1.309315    .8641724
        2014  |   .6404426   .8364654     0.77   0.444    -.9989995    2.279885
        2015  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -2.777615   1.257244    -2.21   0.027    -5.241769   -.3134616
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.929391   .1930708                      1.550979    2.307802
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |   2.623988   .2533077                      2.171655    3.170538
          rho |   .6766772    .042241                      .5890722    .7534234
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtlogit intensity_level01 post_cold_war##(i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type c.
> claim_communist c.claim_libdem) rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rr_grp side_
> a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data
> ==0, vce(robust)
note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 9 obs not used

note: 2015.year omitted because of collinearity

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1207.1961  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1058.6451  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1045.1058  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1044.9063  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1044.906  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1044.906  

Fitting full model:

tau =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood =  -1044.906
tau =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -988.51824
tau =  0.2     log pseudolikelihood =  -950.5301
tau =  0.3     log pseudolikelihood = -923.43819
tau =  0.4     log pseudolikelihood =  -903.3107
tau =  0.5     log pseudolikelihood = -888.00933
tau =  0.6     log pseudolikelihood = -877.66319
tau =  0.7     log pseudolikelihood = -872.67152
tau =  0.8     log pseudolikelihood = -875.75073

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -872.23123  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -820.21849  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -810.27491  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -809.9779  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =   -809.964  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =   -809.964  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -809.95852  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -809.95851  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs     =      2,391
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        472

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        5.1
                                                              max =         49

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(83)     =     367.93
Log pseudolikelihood  = -809.95851              Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 472 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
intensity_~01 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.post_cold~r |  -2.205393   1.522132    -1.45   0.147    -5.188717    .7779311
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   1.502846   .6431094     2.34   0.019     .2423749    2.763318
Christian-~l  |   2.005705   1.146613     1.75   0.080    -.2416153    4.253025
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .4480603   .5918573     0.76   0.449    -.7119588    1.608079
Muslim-The~l  |   2.851867   .9072433     3.14   0.002     1.073703    4.630031
              |
claim_commu~t |   .4663599    .530538     0.88   0.379    -.5734755    1.506195
 claim_libdem |   .3336305   .7233043     0.46   0.645     -1.08402    1.751281
              |
post_cold_war#|
chr_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Christian-~d  |  -1.004723   .9035796    -1.11   0.266    -2.775707    .7662605
           1 #|
Christian-~l  |  -1.248388   .9014619    -1.38   0.166    -3.015221    .5184446
              |
post_cold_war#|
mus_claim_t~e |
           1 #|
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .3882099   .8780478     0.44   0.658    -1.332732    2.109152
           1 #|
Muslim-The~l  |   -1.66076    1.07283    -1.55   0.122    -3.763469    .4419487
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
claim_commu~t |
           1  |   .2694519   .8835713     0.30   0.760    -1.462316     2.00122
              |
post_cold_war#|
           c. |
 claim_libdem |
           1  |  -1.150562   .6809383    -1.69   0.091    -2.485176    .1840527
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   2.951632   .8498253     3.47   0.001     1.286005    4.617259
  incomp_terr |   -.218553    .441729    -0.49   0.621    -1.084326      .64722
       rr_grp |    .549868   .2440802     2.25   0.024     .0714797    1.028256
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0699998   .0314423    -2.23   0.026    -.1316257    -.008374
 vdem_rescale |  -.0440133   .0574736    -0.77   0.444    -.1566594    .0686329
vdem_rescal~q |   .0077479   .0080946     0.96   0.338    -.0081173    .0236131
 active_dyads |  -.0198289   .1208963    -0.16   0.870    -.2567813    .2171235
              |
         year |
        1951  |  -1.127935   1.230905    -0.92   0.359    -3.540463    1.284594
        1952  |  -1.502295    1.41044    -1.07   0.287    -4.266708    1.262117
        1953  |   .0469876   1.298979     0.04   0.971    -2.498964    2.592939
        1954  |  -3.308857   1.527657    -2.17   0.030    -6.303009    -.314704
        1955  |  -1.453535   2.080453    -0.70   0.485    -5.531148    2.624078
        1956  |  -2.212825   2.256313    -0.98   0.327    -6.635117    2.209467
        1957  |          0  (empty)
        1958  |  -1.536544   1.820911    -0.84   0.399    -5.105464    2.032376
        1959  |  -2.197298   1.989245    -1.10   0.269    -6.096147     1.70155
        1960  |  -3.174227   1.608908    -1.97   0.049    -6.327628   -.0208254
        1961  |  -.9670472   1.460996    -0.66   0.508    -3.830547    1.896453
        1962  |  -.5133973   1.470677    -0.35   0.727    -3.395871    2.369076
        1963  |   -.773371   1.445392    -0.54   0.593    -3.606288    2.059546
        1964  |  -1.673954   1.288047    -1.30   0.194     -4.19848     .850573
        1965  |  -1.936377   1.318432    -1.47   0.142    -4.520457    .6477025
        1966  |  -1.588926   1.240625    -1.28   0.200    -4.020505    .8426535
        1967  |  -1.698128    1.23595    -1.37   0.169    -4.120545    .7242892
        1968  |  -1.928517   1.211483    -1.59   0.111     -4.30298    .4459457
        1969  |  -1.577403   1.255675    -1.26   0.209     -4.03848    .8836744
        1970  |  -1.648495   1.226227    -1.34   0.179    -4.051857    .7548661
        1971  |  -.6765237   1.061495    -0.64   0.524    -2.757016    1.403969
        1972  |  -2.666647    1.30207    -2.05   0.041    -5.218657   -.1146369
        1973  |  -3.170849   1.372614    -2.31   0.021    -5.861123   -.4805744
        1974  |  -1.575696   1.332284    -1.18   0.237    -4.186925    1.035534
        1975  |  -1.310578   1.265289    -1.04   0.300    -3.790499    1.169343
        1976  |  -1.166853   1.271332    -0.92   0.359    -3.658617    1.324912
        1977  |  -1.403545   1.259989    -1.11   0.265    -3.873078    1.065989
        1978  |  -.0846427   1.284704    -0.07   0.947    -2.602616    2.433331
        1979  |  -1.738956   1.279438    -1.36   0.174    -4.246609    .7686958
        1980  |  -1.453622   1.235916    -1.18   0.240    -3.875974    .9687292
        1981  |  -1.495008   1.261691    -1.18   0.236    -3.967876    .9778609
        1982  |  -.9822589   1.204365    -0.82   0.415    -3.342772    1.378254
        1983  |  -1.163902   1.241513    -0.94   0.349    -3.597224    1.269419
        1984  |  -.8160007   1.195829    -0.68   0.495    -3.159783    1.527782
        1985  |  -1.156592      1.205    -0.96   0.337    -3.518348    1.205164
        1986  |  -1.676036   1.250089    -1.34   0.180    -4.126165     .774093
        1987  |  -1.371363    1.22803    -1.12   0.264    -3.778258    1.035532
        1988  |   -.592888   1.213876    -0.49   0.625    -2.972042    1.786266
        1989  |   -2.43507   1.289559    -1.89   0.059    -4.962559    .0924186
        1990  |  -1.999715   1.306078    -1.53   0.126    -4.559582    .5601512
        1991  |   .6820417   .8012977     0.85   0.395    -.8884729    2.252556
        1992  |   1.392118   .8730634     1.59   0.111    -.3190544    3.103291
        1993  |    .613481   .9163513     0.67   0.503    -1.182535    2.409497
        1994  |   .9064171   1.009865     0.90   0.369    -1.072882    2.885717
        1995  |   .7675978    .940734     0.82   0.415    -1.076207    2.611403
        1996  |   .6274097   .9387843     0.67   0.504    -1.212574    2.467393
        1997  |   .7340905   .8946449     0.82   0.412    -1.019381    2.487562
        1998  |   1.605139    .867896     1.85   0.064    -.0959056    3.306184
        1999  |   1.566909   .8580661     1.83   0.068    -.1148691    3.248688
        2000  |    .873824   .8897724     0.98   0.326    -.8700979    2.617746
        2001  |   .3926421   .8636682     0.45   0.649    -1.300117    2.085401
        2002  |   1.106015   .9397431     1.18   0.239    -.7358479    2.947878
        2003  |   .0427661   1.298119     0.03   0.974    -2.501501    2.587033
        2004  |   1.118192   1.050283     1.06   0.287    -.9403251    3.176708
        2005  |   .2477291   1.025065     0.24   0.809    -1.761362     2.25682
        2006  |  -.8600738   .7463772    -1.15   0.249    -2.322946    .6027985
        2007  |  -.5986672   .9725545    -0.62   0.538    -2.504839    1.307505
        2008  |  -.5276926   .6720739    -0.79   0.432    -1.844933    .7895481
        2009  |  -.2116623   .7500195    -0.28   0.778    -1.681674    1.258349
        2010  |  -.7715762   .5803573    -1.33   0.184    -1.909056    .3659032
        2011  |  -.1339783   .9848744    -0.14   0.892    -2.064297     1.79634
        2012  |  -.7713125   .9395265    -0.82   0.412    -2.612751    1.070126
        2013  |  -.1876957   .5631624    -0.33   0.739    -1.291474    .9160823
        2014  |   .7087541   .8371118     0.85   0.397    -.9319548    2.349463
        2015  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -2.845096   1.270641    -2.24   0.025    -5.335507   -.3546845
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /lnsig2u |   1.978837   .2036254                      1.579739    2.377936
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |    2.68967   .2738425                      2.203109     3.28369
          rho |   .6873995   .0437553                      .5960158    .7662199
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist claim_libdem
>  rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_resca
> le_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data=
> =0, re

Fitting negative binomial (constant dispersion) model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =   -9376531  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6297394.2  (backed up)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4149861.9  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2777038.9  (backed up)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =   -2086685  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -738421.23  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -418753.35  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -404786.32  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -403868.06  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -403863.94  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -403863.94  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334077.29  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6398.0551  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6281.9802  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6264.1238  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -6264.115  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -6200.437  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6118.6296  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6104.8509  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -6104.661  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6104.6609  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -90524.185  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -11252.343  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7898.5241  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6699.0849  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6171.8818  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6009.5663  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -5879.8912  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -5837.0873  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -5832.8765  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -5832.8438  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -5832.8438  

Random-effects negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        843
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        181

Random effects u_i ~ Beta                       Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =        4.7
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(41)     =     101.80
Log likelihood  = -5832.8438                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |  -.0660149    .142174    -0.46   0.642    -.3446708     .212641
Christian-~l  |  -.1607545   .2659288    -0.60   0.546    -.6819653    .3604563
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.0785518   .1384621    -0.57   0.570    -.3499325    .1928289
Muslim-The~l  |  -.1421898   .1482904    -0.96   0.338    -.4328337     .148454
              |
claim_commu~t |  -.4909878   .1432717    -3.43   0.001     -.771795   -.2101805
 claim_libdem |  -.2379836   .1555271    -1.53   0.126    -.5428112    .0668439
rebel_ext_m~t |   .4785181   .2757162     1.74   0.083    -.0618757    1.018912
  incomp_terr |  -.3170697   .1122021    -2.83   0.005    -.5369817   -.0971576
       rr_grp |  -.0406978   .0703949    -0.58   0.563    -.1786693    .0972737
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0013083   .0126614     0.10   0.918    -.0235077    .0261243
 vdem_rescale |    .022096   .0116217     1.90   0.057    -.0006822    .0448741
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0012739   .0019338    -0.66   0.510    -.0050641    .0025163
     rcd_loot |  -.0117296   .0842522    -0.14   0.889    -.1768608    .1534016
    rcd_crime |   .4397934   .0928906     4.73   0.000     .2577312    .6218556
 active_dyads |  -.0261236   .0411358    -0.64   0.525    -.1067484    .0545012
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000712   .0000119     6.00   0.000      .000048    .0000945
              |
         year |
        1991  |  -.2375013   .1781102    -1.33   0.182    -.5865909    .1115884
        1992  |   .1063823   .1757023     0.61   0.545    -.2379879    .4507525
        1993  |   -.067537   .1796362    -0.38   0.707    -.4196174    .2845434
        1994  |  -.0609887   .1787258    -0.34   0.733    -.4112847    .2893074
        1995  |  -.2219406    .181456    -1.22   0.221    -.5775879    .1337067
        1996  |  -.0286252   .1891296    -0.15   0.880    -.3993123    .3420619
        1997  |  -.1302319   .1910977    -0.68   0.496    -.5047765    .2443127
        1998  |  -.0998066   .1831311    -0.55   0.586    -.4587371    .2591238
        1999  |  -.1037083   .1841905    -0.56   0.573     -.464715    .2572984
        2000  |    -.11002   .1835774    -0.60   0.549    -.4698251    .2497851
        2001  |  -.3526772   .1842662    -1.91   0.056    -.7138322    .0084779
        2002  |  -.0111441   .1785837    -0.06   0.950    -.3611617    .3388734
        2003  |  -.3158025   .1927564    -1.64   0.101    -.6935981     .061993
        2004  |  -.1755849   .1917685    -0.92   0.360    -.5514442    .2002743
        2005  |  -.2345105    .200486    -1.17   0.242    -.6274558    .1584348
        2006  |  -.2521405    .191399    -1.32   0.188    -.6272756    .1229946
        2007  |    -.13513   .1927013    -0.70   0.483    -.5128175    .2425575
        2008  |  -.1445199   .1885435    -0.77   0.443    -.5140584    .2250187
        2009  |  -.1315577   .1862588    -0.71   0.480    -.4966182    .2335029
        2010  |  -.3699253   .1949999    -1.90   0.058     -.752118    .0122674
        2011  |  -.4905819   .2003762    -2.45   0.014     -.883312   -.0978517
        2012  |  -.3755589   .2089596    -1.80   0.072    -.7851123    .0339944
        2013  |  -.5456437   .2138566    -2.55   0.011    -.9647949   -.1264925
        2014  |  -.2759452   .2005622    -1.38   0.169    -.6690398    .1171494
        2015  |  -.4718257    .203018    -2.32   0.020    -.8697337   -.0739178
              |
        _cons |   .7652546   .4085216     1.87   0.061    -.0354331    1.565942
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_r |  -.0658517   .1195652                     -.3001952    .1684918
        /ln_s |   4.494265   .2066506                      4.089238    4.899293
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            r |   .9362697   .1119453                      .7406737    1.183519
            s |    89.5024   18.49572                      59.69437    134.1949
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. pooled: chibar2(01) = 543.63               Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000

. 
. 
. 
. xtnbreg bd_best i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type claim_communist claim_libdem
>  rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr rr_grp side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_resca
> le_sq rcd_loot rcd_crime active_dyads l1.bd_best i.year if obsolete_ucdp_data=
> =0, fe
note: 61 groups (61 obs) dropped because of only one obs per group

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -152026.15  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -10981.565  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -8855.3279  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6568.0758  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5372.2029  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -5143.2997  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -4797.2613  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -4479.5671  
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -4353.6059  
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -4348.8675  
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -4348.8631  
Iteration 11:  log likelihood = -4348.8631  

Conditional FE negative binomial regression     Number of obs     =        782
Group variable: dyad_id_rev                     Number of groups  =        120

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =          2
                                                              avg =        6.5
                                                              max =         26

                                                Wald chi2(41)     =     117.25
Log likelihood  = -4348.8631                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      bd_best |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |  -.0546008   .1886415    -0.29   0.772    -.4243313    .3151296
Christian-~l  |  -.0049011   .3311092    -0.01   0.988    -.6538632    .6440611
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   -.220665   .1704793    -1.29   0.196    -.5547983    .1134683
Muslim-The~l  |  -.3659652   .1717903    -2.13   0.033    -.7026681   -.0292624
              |
claim_commu~t |  -.5717472   .1783326    -3.21   0.001    -.9212727   -.2222217
 claim_libdem |  -.3463721   .2101779    -1.65   0.099    -.7583133     .065569
rebel_ext_m~t |   .2184942   .3611474     0.60   0.545    -.4893418    .9263302
  incomp_terr |  -.2190775    .141939    -1.54   0.123    -.4972728    .0591178
       rr_grp |  -.0796277   .0903457    -0.88   0.378    -.2567021    .0974466
 side_a_lnGDP |   .0111377   .0162326     0.69   0.493    -.0206777     .042953
 vdem_rescale |   .0461452   .0133393     3.46   0.001     .0200006    .0722898
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0016265   .0021316    -0.76   0.445    -.0058044    .0025514
     rcd_loot |  -.0928991   .0912313    -1.02   0.309    -.2717092     .085911
    rcd_crime |   .5403558   .1040581     5.19   0.000     .3364057     .744306
 active_dyads |   .0049241   .0466633     0.11   0.916    -.0865342    .0963825
              |
      bd_best |
          L1. |   .0000573   .0000135     4.24   0.000     .0000308    .0000838
              |
         year |
        1991  |   -.273166   .1775129    -1.54   0.124     -.621085     .074753
        1992  |   .0271135   .1854498     0.15   0.884    -.3363614    .3905884
        1993  |  -.1826743   .1939466    -0.94   0.346    -.5628026     .197454
        1994  |   -.180509    .194565    -0.93   0.354    -.5618494    .2008315
        1995  |  -.3449051   .1942454    -1.78   0.076     -.725619    .0358089
        1996  |  -.1573248   .2009161    -0.78   0.434    -.5511131    .2364635
        1997  |  -.3371624   .2044286    -1.65   0.099    -.7378351    .0635104
        1998  |  -.3072432   .1984796    -1.55   0.122     -.696256    .0817696
        1999  |  -.3316187   .2016302    -1.64   0.100    -.7268066    .0635692
        2000  |  -.2619145   .1963788    -1.33   0.182    -.6468099    .1229809
        2001  |  -.5069476   .1943634    -2.61   0.009    -.8878928   -.1260024
        2002  |  -.1506657   .1876012    -0.80   0.422    -.5183574    .2170259
        2003  |  -.4546026   .2025235    -2.24   0.025    -.8515414   -.0576639
        2004  |  -.3169996   .1996681    -1.59   0.112     -.708342    .0743428
        2005  |   -.388599   .2079698    -1.87   0.062    -.7962123    .0190143
        2006  |  -.4241567   .2024687    -2.09   0.036     -.820988   -.0273254
        2007  |  -.3026255   .2041967    -1.48   0.138    -.7028435    .0975926
        2008  |   -.317508   .2036934    -1.56   0.119    -.7167396    .0817237
        2009  |  -.2678036   .1997842    -1.34   0.180    -.6593735    .1237662
        2010  |   -.546864   .2096672    -2.61   0.009    -.9578041   -.1359239
        2011  |  -.6997782   .2175172    -3.22   0.001    -1.126104   -.2734523
        2012  |  -.6470486   .2249944    -2.88   0.004     -1.08803   -.2060677
        2013  |  -.8311868   .2332246    -3.56   0.000    -1.288299   -.3740749
        2014  |  -.5099023   .2186676    -2.33   0.020    -.9384829   -.0813217
        2015  |  -.7101547   .2252959    -3.15   0.002    -1.151726   -.2685828
              |
        _cons |   .8558759   .5096103     1.68   0.093    -.1429419    1.854694
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. **********************************

. 
. * SET DATA AS SURVIVAL-TIME DATA *

. 
. **********************************

. 
. 
. 
. stset year1 if obsolete_ucdp_data==0, failure(ep_end==1) id(dyad_id_rev) origi
> n(time start_year_1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyad_id_rev
     failure event:  ep_end == 1
obs. time interval:  (year1[_n-1], year1]
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time start_year_1
            if exp:  obsolete_ucdp_data==0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2610  total observations
         34  ignored at outset because of -if <exp>-
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2576  observations remaining, representing
        507  subjects
        433  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
   3381.196  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =        70

. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ***************

. 
. * Table A2-F. Risk of Armed Conflict Termination, Dyadic, 1950-2017, Cold War 
> Split Samples *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ***************

. 
. 
. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efro
> n vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =      100.32
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1774.7439             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4926103   .1109163    -4.44   0.000    -.7100022   -.2752184
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1262401   .1096378    -1.15   0.250    -.3411262     .088646
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.0954409   .2266592    -0.42   0.674    -.5396847    .3488029
  incomp_terr |  -.0518145   .1134092    -0.46   0.648    -.2740926    .1704635
intensity_l~l |  -.3358355   .1654681    -2.03   0.042    -.6601471    -.011524
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0120021   .0097712    -1.23   0.219    -.0311534    .0071491
 vdem_rescale |  -.0158141   .0145687    -1.09   0.278    -.0443681      .01274
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0018469   .0026673    -0.69   0.489    -.0070748    .0033809
 active_dyads |  -.8448405   .0985487    -8.57   0.000    -1.037992   -.6516887
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads if post_co
> ld_war==0, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          252             Number of obs    =       1,241
No. of failures      =          169
Time at risk         =  1468.798096
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       53.11
Log pseudolikelihood =   -696.49196             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 252 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.3981915   .1832143    -2.17   0.030    -.7572849    -.039098
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1191377   .1614113    -0.74   0.460    -.4354981    .1972227
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.0044464   .3400601    -0.01   0.990    -.6709519    .6620591
  incomp_terr |  -.6606489   .1833985    -3.60   0.000    -1.020103   -.3011944
intensity_l~l |  -.2427144   .2281941    -1.06   0.287    -.6899665    .2045378
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0207583   .0125233    -1.66   0.097    -.0453035    .0037868
 vdem_rescale |  -.0141204   .0307805    -0.46   0.646    -.0744491    .0462083
vdem_rescal~q |   .0000791   .0049805     0.02   0.987    -.0096824    .0098406
 active_dyads |  -1.136932   .1964421    -5.79   0.000    -1.521952   -.7519125
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox incomp_ideology_all incomp_rel_aff rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads if post_co
> ld_war==1, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          294             Number of obs    =       1,239
No. of failures      =          246
Time at risk         =   1827.79834
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       76.13
Log pseudolikelihood =    -812.5211             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 294 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_ideo~l |  -.4860766   .1492538    -3.26   0.001    -.7786088   -.1935444
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1453027   .1467874    -0.99   0.322    -.4330007    .1423953
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.4083265   .3100898    -1.32   0.188    -1.016091    .1994384
  incomp_terr |   .4265587    .152608     2.80   0.005     .1274524     .725665
intensity_l~l |  -.4884791   .2710769    -1.80   0.072     -1.01978    .0428218
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0138761   .0157337    -0.88   0.378    -.0447135    .0169613
 vdem_rescale |   -.030795   .0176652    -1.74   0.081    -.0654181    .0038282
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0005999   .0040173    -0.15   0.881    -.0084737    .0072738
 active_dyads |  -.6996937   .1120216    -6.25   0.000     -.919252   -.4801354
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox incomp_rel_aff i.incomp_ideologies rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efro
> n vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =      102.75
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1774.0844             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_rel_~f |  -.1040234   .1130497    -0.92   0.357    -.3255967    .1175499
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.4467059   .1190937    -3.75   0.000    -.6801252   -.2132866
 Theological  |  -.6853447    .211814    -3.24   0.001    -1.100492   -.2701969
        Both  |  -.5217829   .1717307    -3.04   0.002    -.8583688   -.1851969
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1233517   .2302333    -0.54   0.592    -.5746007    .3278973
  incomp_terr |  -.0759433   .1166251    -0.65   0.515    -.3045243    .1526376
intensity_l~l |  -.3317016   .1658101    -2.00   0.045    -.6566835   -.0067197
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0102425    .009995    -1.02   0.305    -.0298325    .0093474
 vdem_rescale |  -.0191495   .0151198    -1.27   0.205    -.0487837    .0104847
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0023862   .0028343    -0.84   0.400    -.0079414     .003169
 active_dyads |  -.8360303   .0989455    -8.45   0.000     -1.02996   -.6421007
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox incomp_rel_aff i.incomp_ideologies rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads if post_co
> ld_war==0, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          252             Number of obs    =       1,241
No. of failures      =          169
Time at risk         =  1468.798096
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =       56.46
Log pseudolikelihood =   -695.68431             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 252 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_rel_~f |   -.139451   .1638175    -0.85   0.395    -.4605273    .1816254
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.4515792   .1884072    -2.40   0.017    -.8208505   -.0823078
 Theological  |   .1673231   .7414552     0.23   0.821    -1.285902    1.620549
        Both  |  -.0912519   .3266232    -0.28   0.780    -.7314216    .5489177
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   .0408179   .3414756     0.12   0.905    -.6284619    .7100977
  incomp_terr |   -.639072   .1840244    -3.47   0.001    -.9997533   -.2783907
intensity_l~l |  -.2656144   .2331898    -1.14   0.255    -.7226581    .1914293
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0220521   .0126301    -1.75   0.081    -.0468066    .0027024
 vdem_rescale |  -.0114898   .0311006    -0.37   0.712    -.0724459    .0494663
vdem_rescal~q |     -.0002   .0049943    -0.04   0.968    -.0099886    .0095885
 active_dyads |  -1.140905   .1978361    -5.77   0.000    -1.528657   -.7531537
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox incomp_rel_aff i.incomp_ideologies rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr int
> ensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads if post_co
> ld_war==1, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          294             Number of obs    =       1,239
No. of failures      =          246
Time at risk         =   1827.79834
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =       86.33
Log pseudolikelihood =   -805.75986             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 294 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
incomp_rel_~f |   .0082878   .1536558     0.05   0.957     -.292872    .3094475
              |
incomp_ideo~s |
     Secular  |  -.1927868   .1633135    -1.18   0.238    -.5128753    .1273018
 Theological  |  -.8074218   .2286806    -3.53   0.000    -1.255627   -.3592161
        Both  |  -.9348807   .2712155    -3.45   0.001    -1.466453   -.4033082
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.6329277    .337977    -1.87   0.061     -1.29535    .0294949
  incomp_terr |   .3511128   .1540094     2.28   0.023     .0492598    .6529658
intensity_l~l |  -.5233826   .2696382    -1.94   0.052    -1.051864    .0050986
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0043426   .0154585    -0.28   0.779    -.0346408    .0259556
 vdem_rescale |  -.0456724   .0188186    -2.43   0.015    -.0825562   -.0087886
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0016497   .0041397    -0.40   0.690    -.0097633    .0064639
 active_dyads |  -.6856933   .1134098    -6.05   0.000    -.9079723   -.4634142
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ****************

. 
. * Table A3-F. Risk of Armed Conflict Termination, Monadic, 1950-2017, Cold War
>  Split Samples *

. 
. ******************************************************************************
> ****************

. 
. 
. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robu
> st) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       99.21
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1771.3526             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.5666533   .1114903    -5.08   0.000    -.7851702   -.3481363
    rel_aff01 |   .2655133   .1742418     1.52   0.128    -.0759944    .6070209
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.1095663   .2213369    -0.50   0.621    -.5433787    .3242461
  incomp_terr |  -.3271894   .1178539    -2.78   0.005    -.5581789      -.0962
intensity_l~l |  -.3364834   .1642684    -2.05   0.041    -.6584435   -.0145233
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0074305   .0100071    -0.74   0.458    -.0270441    .0121831
 vdem_rescale |  -.0317388   .0148954    -2.13   0.033    -.0609333   -.0025444
vdem_rescal~q |   -.002958   .0026474    -1.12   0.264    -.0081469    .0022308
 active_dyads |  -.8378611   .0974796    -8.60   0.000    -1.028918   -.6468045
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads if post_cold_war==0,
>  nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          252             Number of obs    =       1,241
No. of failures      =          169
Time at risk         =  1468.798096
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       64.20
Log pseudolikelihood =   -691.21277             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 252 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.7208218   .1980584    -3.64   0.000    -1.109009   -.3326346
    rel_aff01 |   .3214501   .2256438     1.42   0.154    -.1208036    .7637037
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.0650064   .3095883    -0.21   0.834    -.6717883    .5417755
  incomp_terr |  -1.099858   .2203226    -4.99   0.000    -1.531683   -.6680339
intensity_l~l |  -.2009871    .233976    -0.86   0.390    -.6595717    .2575974
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0185412   .0121539    -1.53   0.127    -.0423625    .0052801
 vdem_rescale |  -.0258295   .0302716    -0.85   0.394    -.0851608    .0335018
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0007517   .0049431    -0.15   0.879      -.01044    .0089367
 active_dyads |  -1.126118   .1841009    -6.12   0.000    -1.486949   -.7652865
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox claim_ideology rel_aff01 rebel_ext_mil_support incomp_terr intensity_lev
> el side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescale_sq active_dyads if post_cold_war==1,
>  nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          294             Number of obs    =       1,239
No. of failures      =          246
Time at risk         =   1827.79834
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       88.83
Log pseudolikelihood =   -807.42571             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 294 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_ideol~y |  -.6676807   .1443145    -4.63   0.000     -.950532   -.3848294
    rel_aff01 |   .0914874   .2374809     0.39   0.700    -.3739666    .5569413
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.3967682   .3118424    -1.27   0.203    -1.007968    .2144316
  incomp_terr |   .2375388   .1531927     1.55   0.121    -.0627134    .5377909
intensity_l~l |  -.5808233   .2689208    -2.16   0.031    -1.107898   -.0537483
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0087327   .0161165    -0.54   0.588    -.0403205     .022855
 vdem_rescale |  -.0482743   .0162582    -2.97   0.003    -.0801398   -.0164087
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0011781    .003859    -0.31   0.760    -.0087417    .0063854
 active_dyads |  -.7303549   .1157683    -6.31   0.000    -.9572566   -.5034532
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          490             Number of obs    =       2,480
No. of failures      =          415
Time at risk         =  3296.596436
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =      114.58
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1763.1269             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 490 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.7610558   .1380086    -5.51   0.000    -1.031548   -.4905638
 claim_libdem |  -.4402907     .15733    -2.80   0.005    -.7486518   -.1319296
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .4048742   .1422312     2.85   0.004     .1261062    .6836423
Christian-~l  |   .2150419    .342843     0.63   0.531    -.4569182    .8870019
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .0772299   .1430441     0.54   0.589    -.2031314    .3575912
Muslim-The~l  |  -.4586832   .1945739    -2.36   0.018    -.8400411   -.0773253
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.2526366   .2415014    -1.05   0.296    -.7259708    .2206975
  incomp_terr |  -.2825357   .1161563    -2.43   0.015    -.5101978   -.0548735
intensity_l~l |  -.3821835   .1721317    -2.22   0.026    -.7195555   -.0448115
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0115177   .0103128    -1.12   0.264    -.0317304    .0086951
 vdem_rescale |  -.0273463   .0145396    -1.88   0.060    -.0558434    .0011509
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0030302    .002581    -1.17   0.240    -.0080889    .0020284
 active_dyads |  -.8360816    .099016    -8.44   0.000    -1.030149   -.6420138
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
. 
. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads if post_cold_war==0, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_
> no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          252             Number of obs    =       1,241
No. of failures      =          169
Time at risk         =  1468.798096
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =       75.91
Log pseudolikelihood =   -685.10001             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 252 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.9934944   .2171979    -4.57   0.000    -1.419194   -.5677943
 claim_libdem |  -.8801554   .2949371    -2.98   0.003    -1.458221   -.3020894
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .3292498    .208804     1.58   0.115    -.0799985    .7384982
Christian-~l  |   .1198834   .7943194     0.15   0.880    -1.436954    1.676721
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |   .1717934   .2034287     0.84   0.398    -.2269196    .5705064
Muslim-The~l  |   .2060717   .3903745     0.53   0.598    -.5590483    .9711917
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |   .1021598   .3091721     0.33   0.741    -.5038064    .7081261
  incomp_terr |  -1.078947   .2111175    -5.11   0.000     -1.49273   -.6651647
intensity_l~l |  -.2570844   .2400651    -1.07   0.284    -.7276033    .2134346
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0164988    .013761    -1.20   0.231    -.0434699    .0104724
 vdem_rescale |  -.0339473   .0294347    -1.15   0.249    -.0916383    .0237437
vdem_rescal~q |  -.0043889   .0050221    -0.87   0.382     -.014232    .0054543
 active_dyads |  -1.114653   .1824488    -6.11   0.000    -1.472246   -.7570603
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. 
.  
. 
. stcox claim_communist claim_libdem i.chr_claim_type i.mus_claim_type rebel_ext
> _mil_support incomp_terr intensity_level side_a_lnGDP vdem_rescale vdem_rescal
> e_sq active_dyads if post_cold_war==1, nohr efron vce(robust) nolog strata(ep_
> no)

         failure _d:  ep_end == 1
   analysis time _t:  (year1-origin)
             origin:  time start_year_1
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyad_id_rev

Stratified Cox regr. -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          294             Number of obs    =       1,239
No. of failures      =          246
Time at risk         =   1827.79834
                                                Wald chi2(13)    =      104.67
Log pseudolikelihood =   -800.52007             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 294 clusters in dyad_id_rev)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
claim_commu~t |  -.6387003   .2057767    -3.10   0.002    -1.042015   -.2353854
 claim_libdem |   -.275478   .2022961    -1.36   0.173    -.6719711    .1210152
              |
chr_claim_t~e |
Christian-~d  |   .3895723   .1924496     2.02   0.043     .0123781    .7667665
Christian-~l  |  -.0176681   .3439788    -0.05   0.959    -.6918541    .6565179
              |
mus_claim_t~e |
Muslim-Aff~d  |  -.0456553   .2135046    -0.21   0.831    -.4641167    .3728061
Muslim-The~l  |  -.8863982    .257655    -3.44   0.001    -1.391393   -.3814037
              |
rebel_ext_m~t |  -.8179518   .3376833    -2.42   0.015    -1.479799   -.1561048
  incomp_terr |   .2994611   .1478308     2.03   0.043      .009718    .5892041
intensity_l~l |  -.5832886    .275283    -2.12   0.034    -1.122833   -.0437438
 side_a_lnGDP |  -.0054568   .0151516    -0.36   0.719    -.0351534    .0242398
 vdem_rescale |  -.0390485   .0174138    -2.24   0.025    -.0731789   -.0049181
vdem_rescal~q |   -.001954   .0040882    -0.48   0.633    -.0099668    .0060587
 active_dyads |  -.7055734   .1158871    -6.09   0.000    -.9327079    -.478439
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by ep_no

. log close
